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February 14th, 2025: Stroman, Third Base, Cousins, Beeter, Loáisiga, Prospects to Know, Mailbag
🕑 Added 2025-02-14 11:00:18 +0000 UTCSpring Training camps are open across Arizona and Florida, which means it is both prospect season (here’s my Top 30 Prospects List) and also projection season. PECOTA came out last week and projected the Yankees for 89.7 wins. Spring Training ZiPS came out earlier this week and have the Yankees in the same range. Here’s the AL East before the Red Sox signed Alex Bregman, a move that nudges them closer to the Yankees and Orioles:
For all my bitching and moaning about the Yankees, I would be livid if I were an Orioles fan. Imagine sitting through that rebuild (they played at a 110-loss pace from 2018-21!) only for the O’s to be projected to be as good as the Juan Soto-less Yankees going into Adley Rutschman’s fourth MLB season? I’d be so mad if I were an O’s fan, which I’m not, so lol at them. Anyway, the AL East will be a grind again this year. What else is new? Here now is today’s post and here's the video the Yankees put together showing off their new player facilities in Tampa.
1. Spring Training begins. Pitchers and catchers reported Tuesday, position players are due Sunday, and soon everything will be a full go in Tampa. JT Brubaker, Gerrit Cole, Scott Effross, Brandon Leibrandt, Carlos Rodón, Kevin Stevens, and Will Warren all threw live BP earlier this week. The first guys to throw live BP are usually the first to pitch in Grapefruit League games, so expect to see them when games begin next weekend, or soon thereafter. (Cole might be the exception. He does a lot of live BP work early in camp and typically makes his Grapefruit League debut in early March.)
“It’s such an exciting time of year,” Aaron Boone said during his start of Spring Training press conference Tuesday (video). “A lot of us have been freezing our butts off up north, and the Super Bowl comes to an end, and it’s like man, it’s a sign. It’s time for baseball. Hope springs eternal.”
Boone said Jasson Domínguez will have to win a roster spot in camp, he won’t have a job handed to him, and that’s fine. I mean, the Yankees clearly want Domínguez to win a job (they haven’t brought in many left field alternatives, have they?), but making a young player compete and earn an Opening Day spot is a-okay with me. Spring Training competition is good and healthy. Go win a job, Jasson.
Here’s the Grapefruit League broadcast schedule (so far). I’ll link back to that often and update it once the last few teams announce their broadcasts (the Phillies broadcast a ton of games each spring, so we’ll probably get those three road games). Here now is the most important news to come out of the first few days of Spring Training.
Stroman a no-show at camp
Marcus Stroman has not been with the Yankees for workouts the last two days. He took his physical Tuesday, then his agent informed the Yankees he would not join the team until some undetermined point in the future, according to Erik Boland. “Nothing to add,” Brian Cashman said. Tuesday was just physicals. Wednesday and Thursday, the days Stroman missed, were workout days.
"Obviously I want all our players here, clearly,” Boone said Thursday (video). “That said, I am again comfortable with where he's at physically and mentally."
Friday, Feb. 22nd, is the mandatory Spring Training reporting date. All the workouts taking place now are technically voluntary. Feb. 22nd is the CBA-mandated reporting date (Zack Greinke used to not report until the mandatory date), so Stroman isn’t breaking any rules. If he doesn’t report Feb. 22nd, he will be subject to discipline. (I do not know what that discipline would be.)
Joel Sherman hears Stroman is expected to report by Monday and that staying away from camp doesn’t have to do with the trade rumors. Not sure I buy it, but whatever. Stroman’s history is acting like hot shit when things are going well and being pouty when they aren’t. He’s worn out his welcome everywhere he’s played and is in the process of doing so with the Yankees.
A few weeks ago I said I expect the Yankees to trade Stroman. I still think it happens, though skipping the first few days of Spring Training probably won’t help things. Why trade for Stroman, even with the Yankees paying down a chunk of his salary, when you could sign Kyle Gibson or Jose Quintana and get similar production without the headaches? Hopefully this saga ends soon.
(This is silly and an unnecessary distraction, and it would be nice if Stroman were in camp, but I bet this blows over in a week.)
No decision made at third base yet
Not surprisingly, Boone said the Yankees have not yet decided who will play third base. He talked up DJ LeMahieu a bunch, and what else is he supposed to say on the first day of Spring Training? Maybe this is foolish of me, but I don’t believe the Yankees are counting on LeMahieu to contribute much. They’ll give him every chance to show he can help the team, but I don’t think they’re expecting anything.
“I’m not going to put anything past a healthy DJ LeMahieu and his ability to hit,” Boone said Tuesday. “Hopefully he’s one of those guys that kind of kicks the door in (at third base), grabs it, and runs with it. We certainly know what he’s capable of, coupled with being outstanding defensively.”
The Yankees had another incomplete offseason. It’s the third offseason in a row they’ve left a position unaddressed (left field in 2023, third base in 2024 and 2025), and their current third base options are all pretty low upside. It’s LeMahieu, Oswaldo Cabrera, and Oswald Peraza. I guess Pablo Reyes and Jorbit Vivas too? That’s who the Yankees are prepared to go into the season with at third base.
Best case is what, a league average bat at third base? Peraza can really play defense. The others range from not having much range (LeMahieu) to solid enough (Cabrera) in the field. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been on the injured list seven times the last four years (not counting the COVID list) and played in 428 of 648 possible regular season games from 2021-24, or 66%. If he gets hurt, the Yankees will suddenly have one of the worst infields in baseball, offensively. One of the worst among contenders, at least.
I guess the main takeaway from Boone’s third base talk is that third base is the position they’re looking to fill. Chisholm’s going to play second. That seems like a waste of his arm, which is in the upper third of the league per Statcast's arm strength metrics, though his athleticism will serve the Yankees well up the middle. Also, Chisholm has played second base a bunch (167 career games), so he’s familiar with it. Sounds like he’s playing second, and third base will be this year’s revolving door. Oh joy.
(Absurd fact I stumbled across the other day: Peraza has appeared in a Yankees’ postseason game more recently than LeMahieu. So have Joey Gallo, Gio Urshela, and Andrew Velazquez. Because of injuries, LeMahieu has not appeared in a postseason game since the 2020 ALDS. Yeesh.)
Cousins shut down with forearm strain
Is it just me, or has there been an uptick in players getting hurt in the offseason the last few years? Not just with the Yankees, but league-wide. I guess it makes sense. Baseball is a year-round sport now (if you’re not trying to get better in the offseason, you’re falling behind) and inevitably some guys push it too hard in the winter. I just don’t remember there being so many offseason injuries in the past.
Anyway, Jake Cousins has a forearm strain and is in the middle of a shutdown period. His Opening Day availability is in jeopardy. When the Yankees re-signed Tim Hill, I noted they had nine MLB caliber relievers for eight bullpen spots, and that a spring injury would fix that right up. Not only do these things always take care of themselves, they often do it quickly.
“He’s got to clear a lot of hurdles to get back to the point of where he was last year. We think he’s going to be okay, but technically we’re still in the early stages,” Boone said Tuesday. “… Seems like it’s going well and he’s on track to start throwing hopefully at some point next week or the following week, and then build up from there. So that could leak into Opening Day perhaps. But we’ll have to see.”
Forearm strains are often a precursor to Tommy John surgery, though not always, and Cousins had a UCL injury in the not-too-distant past. He had a UCL injury while with the Brewers in 2022 and rehabbed it with a PRP injection rather than go under the knife. It sidelined him close to four months, but the rehab worked. Cousins returned that September and had no elbow trouble in 2023 and 2024.
Now 30, Cousins was rock solid for the Yankees last year, especially after being called up for good in late June. He had a 2.31 ERA (3.74 FIP) with 35.5 K% and 12.3 BB% in 35 innings after that last recall, and he was death on righties: .143/.265/.286 (.255 wOBA). Hopefully this forearm strain isn’t too serious and Cousins makes it back soon. And if it is the worst case scenario, the Yankees will deal with it.
Beeter behind after offseason shoulder injury
Another offseason injury, though it seems this one is in the rear-view mirror. Clayton Beeter, my No. 16 prospect, had a shoulder issue during the offseason, which slowed his ramp up work. He’s throwing now and getting ready for the season, though Beeter is behind the other pitchers, so it’ll be a while before we see him in Grapefruit League games. I assume he won’t be ready for Opening Day.
Beeter, 26, missed four months last season with a shoulder injury, and it was serious enough that Cashman admitted he may need surgery. Beeter was able to avoid surgery, and he looked good and threw hard when he returned in September, but now the shoulder flared up again. Boone said he’s over it and throwing again, but we’ll see. Multiple shoulder issues in a relatively short period of time is bad news.
Loáisiga targeting late May
Jonathan Loáisiga told Pete Caldera his goal is to join the bullpen “by the end of May, beginning of June” following last April’s UCL repair. Matt Blake had previously said they were targeting late April or May. Even with the internal brace procedure, which Loáisiga had, a 13-14 month rehab isn’t out of the ordinary. Methinks Blake was being a wee bit optimistic with the late April target. Loáisiga’s rehab work has gone well to date, he said.
“I felt I owed it to the team and the fans,” Loáisiga told Boland when asked why he returned to the Yankees.
The late May/June return date makes Loáisiga a 60-day injured list candidate whenever the Yankees need a 40-man roster spot. The Yankees can put him on the 60-day injured list now, though the 60 days don’t begin until Opening Day. The earliest Loáisiga could return in that case is May 26th. Well, whatever. Get well soon, Johnny. I hope to see those 100 mph turbo sinkers in the bullpen down the stretch.
Yankees claim Headrick, DFA White
The late January/February waiver claim spree rages on. Earlier this week the Yankees claimed lefty Brent Headrick from the Twins. This is the 17th waiver claim the Yankees have made since Jan. 1st, 2023. They made 18 waiver claims total from 2016-22. Waiver claims usually don’t amount to much, but they are a way to improve depth. The waiver claim is better than someone in the organization somewhere along the line, you know?
Headrick, 27, is a soft-tossing lefty who missed close to five months with a forearm strain last year. You may remember him throwing five innings of two-run long relief in a blowout loss to the Yankees two years ago. That was the game Aaron Judge did this (box score):
Headrick is a low-90s four-seamer, low-80s slider, low-80s splitter pitcher who has a 4.16 ERA (4.44 FIP) with 26.8 K% and 8.1 BB% in 93 career Triple-A innings. In the big leagues, he’s allowed 19 runs in 28.2 innings scattered across 2023-24. Baseball America (subs. req’d) said Headrick has “got a shot to be a back-end starter or multi-inning reliever who can carve up lefties but survive against righties” in 2023, the last time he appeared on a prospect list.
Barely more than a week ago the Yankees did not have any viable MLB lefty relievers. Since then they’ve re-signed Hill, invited Tyler Matzek (and Jayvien Sandridge) to camp as an NRI, and claimed Headrick. As with all waiver claims this time of year, I wouldn’t get too attached to Headrick, who does have an option remaining. Chances are he’ll find himself back on waivers in the near future.
To clear 40-man space for Headrick, the Yankees DFAed Owen White, who they claimed from the Reds last week. White getting all the way to the Yankees on waivers could be an indication he’ll clear this time around (only the Dodgers and Phillies are behind the Yankees on the waiver order) and stick with the Yankees as a non-40-man roster player. We’ll find out in a few days.
(The Headrick claim was made Tuesday, the day before the 60-day injured list became available. That’s why the Yankees had to DFA White rather than put Loáisiga on the 60-day injured list for Headrick.)
Miscellany
The Yankees made the Matzek signing official earlier this week, so they’re up to 30 NRIs in camp. The 2021 postseason star with the Braves missed 2023 with Tommy John surgery and threw only nine innings early last year before his elbow began to bark again. Matzek, 34, threw a showcase for scouts recently and the Yankees were impressed enough to give him a minor league contract. We’ll see what’s what this spring … Righty reliever Eric Reyzelman, my No. 20 prospect, had an allergic reaction Wednesday and was hospitalized overnight. He was back in camp Thursday and will throw Friday. "Very grateful. We have an amazing training staff. They took really, really good care of me," he told Boland. Glad he’s okay. Being delayed a few days early in camp is no big deal, especially since Reyzelman is a short reliever. Those guys only need a few innings to get ready for the season … And finally, Freddy Peralta will start Opening Day for the Brewers, per Adam McCalvy. Peralta and the Brew Crew will be in the Bronx to begin the season. Good chance Nestor Cortes starts one of the other two games that series. The Yankees haven’t said anything yet, though there’s no reason to think anyone other than Cole will start Opening Day (as long as he’s healthy).
2. Five prospects worth knowing. Spring Training is underway and there is no better time of year to watch prospects. I published my annual Top 30 Prospects List last week and my top four prospects, and 11 of my top 21 prospects, will be in big league camp this spring, either as 40-man roster players or non-roster invitees. Spring Training is the best time for prospect watching.
In addition to my Top 30 list, I also ran my Not Top 30 Prospects last week, and looked at the five prospects who fell out of this year’s Top 30 for whatever reason this week. Now I'm going to wrap up my annual prospect jaunt by highlighting five prospects who are worth knowing even though I don’t consider them among the system’s best. They’re prospects I feel like writing about, basically, so let’s get into ‘em.
RHP Michael Arias
Date of Birth: Nov. 15th, 2001 (age 23)
Acquired: Cash trade with Cubs (Jan. 15th, 2025)
2024 Stats: 4.47 ERA (4.69 FIP), 25.2 K%, 16.8 BB%, 40.4 GB% (60.1 IP in AA, AAA)
The Cubs weirdly have a thing for low velocity pitchers and they DFAed the hard-throwing Arias to clear a 40-man roster spot for relative soft-tosser Colin Rea last month. The Yankees made a cash trade to skip the waiver line and make sure they got Arias and his two minor league options. The former infielder has been pitching full-time since 2021, and last season was his first as a full-time reliever.
Arias works from a lower arm slot with a mid-to-upper-90s sinker, a knockout changeup, and a frisbee slider. And also little control. Last year’s 16.8 BB% was right in line with his career 16.3 BB% entering 2024. I don’t expect to see Arias in the big leagues this summer unless it’s an emergency. The Yankees are using the 39th or 40th spot on the 40-man to stash Arias, and see whether he figures out how to throw strikes. It's a development stash as much as anything.
RHP Greysen Carter
Date of Birth: Dec. 15th, 2002 (age 22)
Acquired: 2024 5th round, No. 152 overall ($440,100 bonus)
2024 Stats: Did not pitch after signing (pitch design work in Tampa)
The Yankees went for size and velocity early in the 2024 draft and no one in their draft class has more of the latter than Carter, who’s another member of the Vanderbilt > Yankees pipeline (Bryce Cunningham, Spencer Jones, George Lombard Jr. and Anthony Volpe as recruits, etc.). Standing 6-foot-4 and 237 lbs., Carter sat 97-98 mph and touched 103 mph with the Commodores last spring, and his fastball has strong underlying traits (spin, induced vertical break, etc.). He threw the pitch 70% of the time in 2024.
Carter has a curveball, a slider, and a changeup, though none are reliable, and the Yankees will work with him to develop a go-to second pitch. The changeup has shown the most promise. Carter was primarily a reliever at Vanderbilt and he walked 69 batters in 73.2 college innings, so yeah. He’s an arm strength flier. The Yankees hope to develop a second pitch and a semblance of control, and turn him into an impact reliever. The vast majority of these guys flame out. But, every once in a while, you get a Dellin Betances.
RHP Chance Nolan
Date of Birth: Sept. 7th, 1999 (age 25)
Acquired: Signed as an undrafted free agent (Jan. 28th, 2025)
2024 Stats: N/A
Nolan gave up baseball after his freshman year of high school to focus on football. He was a well-traveled college quarterback (Middle Tennessee State, Saddleback College, Oregon State, TCU) who was advised by doctors to give up football two years ago because of neck trouble and a concussion history. Nolan went back to baseball and pitched at Morningside University last spring (3.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 9 BB, 3 K, 3 HB).
The ugly numbers are understandable given the long layoff, but Nolan stuck with it, and started training at Driveline last fall. At their pro day showcase last month, he sat 95-97 mph and showed four pitches (four-seamer, sinker, slider, changeup). The Yankees were intrigued enough to sign Nolan to a minor league deal. They beat out several other teams by laying out their development plan for him upfront (some teams don’t like doing that because it involves giving out proprietary info).
I assume Nolan’s a good athlete given the football thing, and clearly the arm strength is there. That’s all this is. A dice roll on a guy with arm strength and athleticism. The Yankees will see whether their pitching people can sharpen the edges and get Nolan to throw strikes, and make him MLB relevant. If not, no big deal. It’s a minor league contract. He’s been a fun story to follow, if nothing else.
C Queni Pineda
Date of Birth: May 29th, 2007 (age 17)
Acquired: Signed Jan. 2024 out of the Dominican Republic ($350,000 bonus)
2024 Stats: .254/.434/.438 (142 wRC+), 5 HR, 23.7 BB%, 22.5 K% (173 PA in DSL)
The Yankees dig up an under-the-radar catching prospect every international signing period and Pineda is last year’s model. He’s patient to the point of passive, hence the 23.7 BB%, though he did run a 103 mph 90th percentile exit velocity last year. That’s impressive for a 17-year-old, particularly one who deals with the rigors of catching. Pineda, a righty hitter, also had strong contact rates (when he actually swung).
Defensively, Pineda has a strong and accurate arm, though he’s rough around the edges with all the other aspects of catching. That’s understandable given his age though. Pineda will likely go back to the DSL this year, which is common for internationally signed teenagers now that the short season leagues are gone. Catchers this young are a risky demographic with a high bust rate. Pineda has talent on both sides of the ball, but he’s probably a year away from being a year away from the Top 30.
RHP Trystan Vrieling
Date of Birth: Oct. 2nd, 2000 (age 24)
Acquired: 2022 3rd round, No. 100 overall ($608,900 bonus)
2024 Stats: 4.58 ERA (3.73 FIP), 21.3 K%, 7.4 BB%, 39.0 GB% (147.1 IP in AA)
Vrieling was my No. 31 prospect and he was in some iterations of the Top 30, so much so that I had a full write-up on him put together. Rather than dump it in the Content Graveyard, I’m going to run it here. Here’s what you need to know about Mr. Vrieling.
Background: All three of Gonzaga’s weekend starters were drafted in 2022, with Vrieling joining Gabriel Hughes (No. 10 overall to Rockies) and William Kempner (No. 106 overall to Giants). Vrieling broke his elbow in Spring Training 2023 and missed the regular season. He got healthy in time to make five starts on a tight pitch count in the Arizona Fall League that fall. In 2024, Vrieling stayed on the field and pitched well enough to win my Comeback Player of the Year award.
The Good: Vrieling’s stuff has bounced back nicely following the broken elbow. He lived in the 93-95 mph range last year and ran his fastball as high as 98 mph early in the season. There’s enough spin and ride on the pitch to get it by hitters at the letters. A sharp high spin slider is his primary secondary pitch and it eats up righties. Vrieling added a cutter to bridge his fastball and slider in 2024, and he has a changeup. He throws plenty of strikes too, particularly with the fastball and slider. Vrieling had a dead arm phase at midseason last year and it really put a dent in his numbers (17 runs in eight innings in a two-start span at one point), but he recovered late in the year and generally held up well.
The Bad: At Gonzaga, Vrieling used a curveball that some pitch models liked more than his slider, though the Yankees had him shelve it because he doesn’t control it well, and to avoid over-stressing an elbow that has already cracked once. Vrieling was a guy with an exciting fastball and two breaking balls going into the 2022 draft, and now he’s down to one breaking ball. The cutter and changeup are distant third and fourth pitches, and he lacks something to keep lefties in check. The stuff is righty specialist middle reliever-y.
2025 Outlook: The Yankees really turned Vrieling loose last year. He threw 100 pitches in his third start of the season, something the Yankees don’t always let their big league guys do that early in the year. That full Double-A workload puts Vrieling in position to begin 2024 with Triple-A Scranton. He’ll be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season.
My Take: Vrieling is a sneaky candidate to give the Yankees some innings this season. With any luck, the cutter or changeup (or both) will take a step forward in what amounts to his second pro season and he’ll be a starting option, but the fastball/slider/control combination is enough to get outs in a relief role. Guys like this, who are Triple-A ready and on the 40-man roster bubble, are always trade bait.
* * *
RHP Brian Hendry, a 2023 tenth rounder with a hammer curveball, was going to be featured here, though Keith Law (subs. req’d) recently reported Hendry needed Tommy John surgery and will miss 2025. That’s the first I’m hearing of it, though it’s enough to hold Hendry out of this post. That’s too bad, if true. Hendry is already 25 and it would be his second Tommy John surgery in four years. That’s never good.
Otherwise, that’s going to wrap up this year’s preseason prospect coverage, though I will of course cover these guys during the season. Breakouts, down years, injuries, you name it and I’ll be on it. For me, the big prospect story this season is Spencer Jones. He’s the highest upside player in the system but he must get his swing-and-miss issues under control. If he can, Jones could be an All-Star and soon. If not, then it will be getting closer to time to write him off.
3. Rapid fire thoughts. Alex Bregman to the Red Sox. Three years, $120M, with two opt outs and deferrals. Offensively, he’s perfect for Fenway Park and vice versa, and I’m guessing he’ll do just fine at second base. That’s a really good pickup for a Red Sox team that is going to be a pain in the ass this year. There’s no chance Hal Steinbrenner would have okayed a $40M a year contract for Bregman (it's more like $32M after the deferrals), so there’s no point in even thinking about whether the Yankees could have/should have signed him. You’ll get 300 plate appearances of DJ LeMahieu at third base before the Yankees trade for Josh Rojas and you’ll like it. Anyway, Bregman was the last of the top free agents to sign. The only unsigned top 50 free agents (per our rankings at CBS) are back-end starters (Andrew Heaney, Jose Quintana), late career DHs (Justin Turner, J.D. Martinez), and David Robertson … And finally, Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d) released their farm system rankings earlier this week and they have the Yankees at No. 25. That’s probably the lowest you’ll see them this spring. I don’t really care about the ranking though. I want to highlight this from the write-up: “The scuttlebutt is Bryce Cunningham has already taken a jump,” meaning Cunningham, last year’s second rounder and my No. 6 prospect, is rumored to have leveled up during his post-draft pitch design work a la Chase Hampton, Will Warren, and others in recent years. This is the first I’m hearing about it, so we’ll have to see what else comes out of Spring Training. The Yankees drafted so many high-end power arms last year and surely at least one of them will make the leap this year, right? Cunningham is as good a bet as anyone.
Mailbag Questions of the Week
Joshua asks: Should the Yankees switch strategies to just sign players in December and onward for a giant discount? I feel like that has happened with the lingering guys like Teoscar and Alonso and others. You can get some real talent for cheap by waiting apparently. Along the same logic, can we now get Bregman for 1 year so that he can try again next year for the long term mega deal?
It’s much easier for us to say the Yankees should stay patient and wait for the January/February bargains than it is to actually do it. Do that and you run the risk of getting left out in the cold, especially since we can no longer count on the Yankees flexing their financial muscle and winning bidding wars. I would much rather have Pete Alonso on his contract than Paul Goldschmidt on his, but could the Yankees have gotten Alonso on those terms? I don’t think so. A short-term deal was always going to be advantage Mets given his history there. The Yankees should use the January/February market to get those extra players who can put them over the top, similar to Mark Teixeira back in the day. Banking on those bargains to build out your roster is risky. You could get stuck with a lot of unappealing options really quick (look what the Blue Jays had to give Anthony Santander). As for Alex Bregman, Joshua sent this question in before he signed with the Red Sox, when it seemed unlikely he would take a one-year deal. I absolutely would have been in favor of a one-year contract. I would hate rooting for him, but Bregman is miles better than anyone the Yankees have available to play third base now. I could have lived with it for a year.
Steve asks: Aren’t the Yankees one or two outfielders short? Dominguez, Bellinger and Judge all have lengthy injury histories. Are you ready for a full season of Trent Grisham and way more at bats than he’s ready for with Pereira?
The Yankees could always put Oswaldo Cabrera or even Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the outfield. That would create a need on the infield, though it is an option available to them. Maybe it’s easier to acquire a second baseman at the trade deadline than an outfielder, and the best way to reinforce the outfield following an injury is moving Jazz out there and getting an infielder. The outfield depth isn’t great but I don’t think it’s a disaster either. Trent Grisham is a pretty good fourth outfielder. He can put a mistake in the seats and will catch just about everything hit his way. After him it’s probably Everson Pereira, then I guess Brennen Davis? JC Escarra could be an option out there too. I’m not sure any team can adequately cover for two major outfield injuries at the same time, Yankees included. I wish the depth were better, though Grisham and Pereira are good enough outfield Plan Bs to me.
Michael asks: The Yanks will have good pitching or better and likely a mediocre at best offense, so better utilizing a running game could help win some games. Although lineup construction may be a bit overvalued, it nonetheless can play a difference in a number of games. I am wondering if the Yankees wouldn’t be wise this season to group together their 3 likely base stealers, Volpe, Dominguez and Chisholm, probably in the 8-9-1 positions. Whomever has the highest OBP should leadoff, but when the lineup turns over there will be opportunities to run more freely, double-steal, and not be as inhibited by having immobile players like Stanton and LeMahieu on the bases ahead of them.
The Yankees stole only 88 bases last season, seventh fewest in baseball, though they did pull off a bunch of double steals, including one in the World Series (here are videos). There is definitely some value to be gained from separating your fast guys from your slow guys. Like Michael said, Anthony Volpe’s speed isn’t much of a weapon if Giancarlo Stanton is on the bases ahead of him.
I’m not sure who’s going to hit leadoff this year – Aaron Boone said he has a few names in mind earlier this week, though he's leaving leadoff spot wide open for now – but the lineup does kinda organically separate the fast guys from the slow guys. This seems plausible, no?
1. 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr.
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. CF Cody Bellinger
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. C Austin Wells
6. 1B Paul Goldschmidt
7. LF Jasson Domínguez
8. SS Anthony Volpe
9. 3B TBD
As long as the third baseman is Oswaldo Cabrera or Oswald Peraza and not DJ LeMahieu, you’ve got four fast dudes in the wraparound 7-8-9-1 portion of the lineup. We could even include Judge and Bellinger there. Judge isn’t fast fast, but he can steal you an occasional base, and Bellinger is a good runner. He was 77th percentile in sprint speed in 2024 and has been a positive baserunner every year of his career (per FanGraphs).
Goldschmidt, LeMahieu, and Stanton figure to be the only real anchors on the roster. The only guys with comfortably below average speed who slow down everyone on the bases behind them. And even then Goldschmidt isn’t a bad baserunner. He’s stolen at least 11 bases in three of the last four years, including the last two. He’s 37 and slow, so he’s a smart baserunner more than a fast baserunner, but he should give the Yankees more on the bases than LeMahieu and Stanton.
Brian Cashman indicated this was a priority after losing Juan Soto. Get more athletic, better defensively, and better on the bases. Full seasons of Chisholm and Domínguez will help on the bases, ditto Bellinger and to a lesser extent Goldschmidt. If you can, separate the fast guys from the slow guys in the lineup. It looks like the Yankees will have little trouble doing that given their personnel and the way the lineup falls into place.
Patrick asks: Padres are said to be willing to include a top prospect in a trade that would free them from the Bogaerts contract. At what point would such a trade make sense for the Yankees? I would be tempted to pull the trigger on a deal that sends Bogaerts, Ethan Salas, Michael King and cash ($25M?) to NY for Carlos Rodon and mid-level prospects. Xander fills hole at 3b or 2b, King an improvement over the volatile Rodon as third starter and Yanks net a top 20 MLB prospect at a premium position.
I’m sure the Padres would love to get out of the Xander Bogaerts contract – he’s got nine years and $229M to go and is coming off a .264/.307/.381 (95 wRC+) line in 2024 – though I would be surprised if they’re so willing to get out of the 2029-33 commitment that they’d surrender a consensus top 30 prospect (Salas) and their best starter (King) and cash and took back Carlos Rodón (owed $108M from 2025-28). That seems like a good way to make the 2025 Padres much worse so the next GM can reap the benefit of not having Bogaerts on the back-end of his career. I love King, and I’d be happy to add Salas to the farm system and shed Rodón’s contract, but good gravy, that Bogaerts contract has to be among the worst in the game. There’s some upside and a lot of downside. Is he better than what the Yankees have lined up at third (a position he played earlier in his career)? Yes. Do I want to hook myself to NINE years of the guy? No, I do not. It would be a (very) shortsighted move. The Yankees have to get out of the business of doing teams favors by taking on their unwanted players (Josh Donaldson, Alex Verdugo, etc.). Taking on Bogaerts would be the mother of all favors, even if including Rodón offsets some cost.
David asks: Realistically what does a trade for Ryan McMahon look like? I was looking at the Rockies roster, and it felt like one of the scenes from Major League where they were going over the Spring Training invitees. Never heard of half, and the ones I have heard of are way past their prime (some never had one) and then there’s McMahon. If the Yankees offered two MLB ready prospects, and Stroman, can the Rockies really say no?
I wrote about McMahon as a trade target before the deadline last summer and he’s a really good fit for the Yankees (lefty bat, good defensively at third base, signed affordably through 2027). He’s not a star, but he would fit nicely at third and in the No. 6 lineup spot. The problem is the Rockies love him and have not given any indication they’re willing to trade him. And, even if they did, Marcus Stroman isn’t gonna do anything to push the Yankees across the finish line. The Rockies lowered payroll over the winter and I assume they would look to do that again with McMahon, not take on Stroman’s $18M (McMahon is owed $12M in 2025). I’d open up the farm system and put anyone other than Jason Domínguez on the table. Spencer Jones and George Lombard Jr.? Sure, go nuts. McMahon would be a significant upgrade for the Yankees. Something like 3-4 wins over their current third base situation, maybe more, and that’s enough to move them from “battling for AL East title” to “likely to get a Wild Card Series bye.”
Jon asks: Your top 30 post reminded me that Jasson Dominguez needed Tommy John surgery, which made me think of all the other recent Yankees who've had it. I don't know how to look this up, but it feels like, at least in the Aaron Judge era, the Yankees have had far more than the normal amount of position player TJ injuries, while having somewhat fewer than typical pitcher TJ injuries. Am I making this up? Also, how do the Yankees compare to other teams in terms of positional player TJs and pitcher TJs during the Aaron Judge era?
To the surprise of no one, every team has had multiple Tommy John surgeries since the Aaron Judge era began in 2017. It’s easier to group the teams by Tommy John count than to post a leaderboard. This is each team’s number of Tommy Johns at the Major League level since 2017 (shoutout to Jon Roegele’s indispensable Tommy John surgery tracker):
13: Angels, Padres
12: Mariners, Pirates, Yankees
11: Dodgers, Reds
10: Mets, White Sox
9: Rays
8: Athletics, Twins
7: Blue Jays, Marlins, Nationals, Orioles, Tigers
6: Astros, Brewers, Cardinals, Phillies, Royals
5: Diamondbacks, Giants
4: Guardians, Rockies
3: Braves, Cubs, Rangers, Red Sox
There have been 18 position player Tommy Johns league-wide since 2017 and the Yankees lead the way with three (Jasson Domínguez, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks). The Mets (Travis d’Arnaud, T.J. Rivera) and Tigers (Riley Greene, Jake Rogers) are the only other teams with multiple position player Tommy Johns during that time. (I’m counting Shohei Ohtani as a pitcher since he hurt his elbow pitching.)
Is there anything to this? Sir Didi and Hicks initially hurt their elbows in the postseason and kept playing, which perhaps pushed them over the line from “rehabable injury” to “surgery needed.” Domínguez too. He admitted he had discomfort in his elbow but played through it for a few days before speaking up. You’ve got two guys who wanted to stay on the field in October and a rookie who was just called up. Can’t say I blame them for not speaking up about their barking elbows, even if it wasn’t the smartest idea.
To answer Jon’s question, yes, the Yankees have had more position player Tommy Johns than other teams since the start of the Judge era, but no, they haven’t had fewer pitcher Tommy Johns. They’ve had nine pitcher Tommy Johns since 2017. The MLB average is seven (6.87, to be exact). Are the Yankees doing something that leads to higher than average Tommy John rate? Or is this just dumb luck? Beats me.
Steve asks: I recently came across this article on Devin Williams and potentially tipping his pitches last playoffs. There was an interesting blurb at the end:
“The Yankees have a comprehensive tipping program that they use to clean up their own pitchers’ tells. According to sources, the team did a deep dive on Williams before trading for him in December. They came out of it believing that he does not tip pitches.”
Thought that was kinda interesting. Any chance you have heard of this and or know more information? I’d be interested to hear about some success stories.
I saw the rumblings that Williams was tipping his pitches in the postseason when it happened last year, though this is the first I’m hearing about the Yankees having a “tipping program” to help their own guys. I’m not surprised though. The Yankees have been very vigilant about protecting their signs (PitchCom’s mandatory) and tipping and things like that the last few years, so it makes sense that they’d come up with a high tech way to catch a pitcher who tips. And yes, I’m sure they use it to pick up on opposing pitchers who are tipping. Every once in a while the Yankees are so collectively on a guy, I mean really great at-bats with quality takes, that it seems like they know what’s coming, and I think the pitcher must be tipping. Their tipping program surely helps with that. I’m sure other teams have something similar. I mean, it’s 2025. If you don’t have a way to pick up on pitchers tipping that is more advanced than "watch intently from the dugout," you’re behind the times.
Dan asks: Kind of a silly question, why do they call it Spring Training when it takes place exclusively in winter?
Spring Training used to actually take place during the spring. The regular season starts earlier than ever nowadays, mostly because the postseason keeps expanding and MLB doesn’t want the World Series to run into mid November. So, they move the start of the season up. Opening Day is March 27th this year. That will be the earliest Opening Day ever*, breaking the record set in 2018 (March 28th). Opening Day used to be in mid April. It was April 19th as recently as 1960. Spring Training back then wasn’t as long as it is now, so players didn’t report to camp until mid to late March, when it was actually spring. They called it Spring Training back then and the name's stuck. (Babe Ruth is probably rolling in his grave thinking about reporting to Spring Training in mid February.)
* Not counting regular season games played in Japan and season-opening trips like that.
David asks: The Yankees, up 25-0 on Opening Day, decide to pull Mike Axisa from the crowd for a pinch hitting appearance in the bottom of the 8th! Given the current roster numbers assigned, what number are you wearing on your Yankee uniform and why?
I played baseball and hockey in high school (I was bad at both) and wore No. 22, though I’m not superstitious and can’t say I’m attached to it. Dom Smith has No. 22 this spring, so I guess that’s out. I’ll go with No. 96. George Lombard Jr. has it this spring, though he won’t make the Opening Day roster, so it will be available to me during the regular season. No. 96 has never been worn by a Yankee, so I would get to say I’m the first player in team history to wear it. Perhaps I’ll be remembered for that rather than the inevitably embarrassing outcome of my at-bat. (87 and 96 are the only two numbers the Yankees have never issued.)
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
kyle
What's the running counter on the yankees saying "we're not done" and then not making another significant move that offseason
Vismay Pandia
Poor Mike, writing these 2-3 paragraph blurbs about waiver claims for them to be rotated out within a week or so
I'm Not The Droids You're Looking For
Mike my brain is so broken. I was looking up and down your 'plausible' batting order, confused as to why I couldn't find Soto. $760mm or whatever may be a terrible business decision. But MAN does his absence change the tenor of our entire lineup.
Alex G
I'm gonna venture to guess DJ won't be on the team any longer come Memorial Day after the Yankees stupidly dig themselves into a hole playing him way too much the first month+ of the season. It is absolutely insane he is still even on the team. This is Josh Donaldson 2023 level mismanagement of a clearly washed up player because of Cashman's allegiance to the sunk cost fallacy.
