RAB Thoughts
patreon
April 7th, 2025: Judge, Grisham, Bottom of the Order, Pitching, Prospects
🕑 Added 2025-04-07 10:00:08 +0000 UTCTorpedo bats have the commissioner’s stamp of approval. Rob Manfred called them “absolutely good for baseball” over the weekend. I’m glad he said that. Don’t just say yeah, they’re legal per the rulebook, and leave it at that. Make it clear they’re something that can improve the product, even if we don’t know exactly how much yet. Treating these things as scandalous doesn't do anyone any good. Here now is Tuesday morning’s post on Monday because I’m gonna be busy today, and I wanted to get this off my plate. Plus posts make more sense between series, right? Right.
1. Weekend thoughts. The season hasn’t truly begun until the Yankees make a spirited late-inning comeback, then lose on a walk-off anyway. I feel like they have one of those every April (this was last year's). The Yankees are 6-3 and the three losses have come by a total of four runs. When they win, they win pretty handily. When they lose, it feels like they could/should have won. Sign of a good team, that is. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.
1,000 games of Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge played his 1,000th big league game Friday and, like his first game and his 500th game, he hit a home run, this one a rocket line drive to right-center field (video). That was already Judge’s sixth home run of the season. He didn’t hit his sixth homer until April 28th last year. The captain is hitting .324/.419/.892 (248 wRC+) in the early going and, honestly, I feel like he’s still a little off. He’s just missed a few pitches.
"Man, he is the best. There’s no more words than that,” Oswaldo Cabrera told Bryan Hoch about Judge. “He is the GOAT. He is one of the best players ever. Not just because of his play. He’s one of the best persons. He deserves everything that happens.”
Through his 1,000th game, Judge was a .289/.406/.608 (174 wRC+) career hitter with 321 home runs. Those 321 homers are, by a freaking mile, the most ever through a player’s first 1,000 games. Here is the leaderboard:
1. Aaron Judge: 321
2. Ryan Howard: 279
3. Ralph Kiner: 277
4. Harmon Killebrew: 272
5. Giancarlo Stanton: 270
Judge’s 321 homers are tied with Babe Ruth for the most through a player’s first 1,000 games with the Yankees. Alex Rodriguez is a distant third with 259 homers. Among all players, Judge is top 10 in baseball history in SLG (.609) and OPS (1.014) through 1,000 career games, and top 20 in total bases (2,186) and extra-base hits (502). Just bonkers, historically ridiculous numbers.
Furthermore, Judge entered play Sunday at +53.4 WAR for his career. That places him 13th in franchise history. He’s on the cusp of passing some big names and could very well finish this season in sixth place – sixth! – on the franchise WAR leaderboard. Here it is:
1. Babe Ruth: +142.7 WAR
2. Lou Gehrig: +113.7 WAR
3. Mickey Mantle: +110.7 WAR
4. Joe DiMaggio: +79.1 WAR
5. Derek Jeter: +71.3 WAR
6. Yogi Berra: +59.7 WAR
7. Whitey Ford: +57.0 WAR
8. Red Ruffing: +56.8 WAR
9. Bill Dickey: +56.4 WAR
10. Mariano Rivera: +56.3 WAR
11. Willie Randolph: +54.0 WAR
12. Alex Rodriguez: +53.8 WAR
13. Aaron Judge: +53.4 WAR
All that stands between Judge and sole possession of sixth place is +6.4 WAR and that is 100% doable this season. For most players, that’s a career year. For Judge, it would either be a down year or mean he missed a bunch of time with injury. Ruth, Gehrig, and Mantle are (probably) out of reach. Can Judge pass DiMaggio? It would mean at least +25.7 WAR from age 33 on. Only 42 hitters have done that. I won’t put it past Judge.
I remember the first at-bat back-to-back home runs with Tyler Austin (video) like they happened yesterday. Fast forward nine years and Judge is the American League’s single-season home run king and one of the greatest right-handed hitters in history. We may never see a hitter this thunderous again in our lifetimes. Here’s to the next 1,000 games. The first 1,000 were better than I could have ever imagined.
"It’s great praise, but I live in the present,” Judge told Hoch when asked about being compared to all those all-time greats after 1,000 games. “We’ve got things to do. I’ve got a lot of work to do. We’ll talk about that in a couple of years. Right now, I’m (thinking) about the game we just had. It’s something we’ll talk about down the road.”
The Generational Trent Grisham
One of the greatest sluggers of all-time, and Reggie Jackson.
Aren’t you glad the Yankees traded Mike King for Trent Grisham? We all love King but you have to give up something good to get one of the game’s best outfielders. Grisham slugged two home runs in Saturday’s win (video), both off lefty Bailey Falter, one pulled to right field and the other tucked inside the foul pole in left field. On Sunday, he tied the game with a two-out, two-strike, two-run single in the ninth inning, also against a lefty (video). Too bad it went to waste.
“Trent is an everyday player. I think people forget that,” Marcus Stroman told Hoch after Saturday’s win. “It’s almost impossible to really, truly be your best if you’re not consistently getting everyday at-bats or reps. What he’s doing right now is incredible. It’s timing, it’s reps. You can ask any hitter. The more they’re playing, usually the better you feel.”
Grisham missed the start of Spring Training with a minor hamstring strain and he’s been blasting the ball since getting back on the field. Four homers in 13 spring games and now three homers in his eight regular season games. Grisham’s always had power, I mentioned that when I first wrote about him as a trade target back in January 2023, and sometimes guys with power will bunch some homers together. He’s doing it now.
There hasn’t been any mention of a swing change. Grisham’s bat speed is up a little bit but is probably still within the range of normal small sample size variance. What Statcast calls the “intercept point” (i.e. where the bat meets the ball) has not changed either, so Grisham’s not catching the ball further out in front of the plate, where the most damage is done. Just about everything about his swing seems unchanged.
Also, the always passive Grisham isn’t being more aggressive (despite what Michael Kay says). His 39.7% swing rate is in line with his career average (39.1%). If anything, his in-zone contact rate is up, but like the bat speed, it’s within a range that can be explained by small sample size. Under-the-hood, there’s nothing obvious going on here. Grisham, for what it’s worth, chalks his early success up to being in a better place mentally.
"Just been doing a really good job mentally to stay in the present," Grisham said after Saturday’s game (video). "The swing's been here and there throughout, but I've stayed really locked in mentally. It feels good, because when you don't feel like your best and you still lock in mentally and still compete and go through the game, it means a lot going forward."
I’m sure last season was a tough adjustment for Grisham, who was an everyday player 2020-23 and then suddenly became a seldom-used fourth outfielder. He went from 500+ plate appearances annually to only 209 in 2024, and he started only 52 games. That’s not even one out of every three. That has to be tough. Grisham says he’s better prepared for that role now. That seems like as good of a reason for his early success as anything.
Grisham’s at .455/.538/.909 (296 wRC+) and that won’t last much longer, let alone all season, but when a guy’s been socking dingers since he first stepped on the field in Spring Training, you might as well keep running him out there just in case it is real. Remember, Grisham stepped in when Stanton was hurt last year and played pretty well (120 wRC+ in June and July). We’ve seen him perform nicely when given regular at-bats.
The Yankees essentially have six players for five spots: Grisham, Judge, Cody Bellinger, Jasson Domínguez, Paul Goldschmidt, and Ben Rice for the three outfield spots, first base, and DH. It’s really more like five players for four spots though, because Judge isn’t coming out of the lineup. He'll be in right field or DH every game. Bellinger can play first, giving the Yankees some flexibility. Maybe Rice should dust off the catcher’s gear?
Sitting Goldschmidt against tough righties and Domínguez against tough lefties would be justified, though I would hate to relegate the 22-year-old top prospect to a platoon role. How will Domínguez ever improve against lefties if you don’t let him face lefties? Grisham has hit lefties better than righties in his career (but not last year), so a Domínguez/Grisham platoon is doable. There are ways to make this all work.
This is one of those “this will take care of itself” situations. Grisham will stop hitting, someone will get hurt, someone make it clear they belong on the short end of the playing time stick, whatever. For now, Grisham is making the most of his playing time, and that’s to say nothing of his defense, which remains excellent. Too many good players is a great problem. I hope the Yankees have to deal with it all season.
The bottom of the lineup
The names have changed almost daily, but no matter who the Yankees have put in the 7-8-9 spots this year, they’ve gotten really great production. That is the polar opposite of last season, when it felt like the bottom of the order was where rallies went to die. Here’s what the 7-8-9 spots have done this year:
AVG: .320 (2nd in MLB; MLB average: .232)
OBP: .404 (2nd in MLB; MLB average: .302)
SLG: .630 (1st in MLB by 173 points; MLB average: .363)
wRC+: 203 wRC+ (1st in MLB by 26 points; MLB average: 89)
The Phillies are the only team anywhere close to the Yankees across the board. The Yankees have, by a pretty wide margin, gotten the best production from the 7-8-9 spots in baseball in the early going this year. Given the state of the pitching staff, the breathing room provided by the bottom of the order (MLB best +31 run differential) has been much needed. Nothing else to add here. Good work by those guys.
Too few innings and too many walks
Nine games into the season, the starting pitcher has completed five innings only five times, and six innings once. The Yankees ease their starters into things early in the season, they’ve been doing this for years now, so some of the short starts are essentially by design. Stroman and Will Warren falling apart after one trip through the lineup Saturday and Sunday was not though. Their combined numbers:
First time thru: 1-for-17 with a double, a walk, and five strikeouts
Thereafter: 8-for-15 with three doubles, a triple, three walks, and three strikeouts
Add in a few bullpen meltdowns and the Yankees rank 18th in ERA (4.37) and 12th in FIP (3.68) nine games into the season. They’re a bit better in terms of contact quality allowed but still not great (.295 xwOBA is ninth best). In a way, it’s impressive the Yankees are still hanging around the middle of the pack pitching-wise given all their injuries. No Gerrit Cole, no Luis Gil, no Clarke Schmidt, plus a bullpen’s worth of relievers on the shelf.
The Yankees have only so many pitching options available to them. It’s not like there’s a stash of quality pitching sitting in Triple-A Scranton waiting to be called up. Ian Hamilton is expected back tomorrow and Schmidt is expected back next week (fingers crossed), otherwise what you see is what we’re going to get the next few weeks. For the time being, the Yankees are in figure it out/weather the storm mode.
One thing the Yankees can (and must) improve is the walks. They’re running an 11.5 BB% as a team in the early going and that is way too high. It’s fourth highest in baseball, and when you’re down a bunch of pitching talent, you can’t be handing out that many free baserunners. Inferior pitchers are less likely to strand them, you know? Make your life a little easier and hand out fewer free passes, por favor.
Miscellany
We haven’t seen the razor sharp version of Max Fried yet but he seemed to find it in the fourth inning of Friday’s start. His final line: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HR (video) on 98 pitches. Fried retired seven of the final nine batters he faced and the two baserunners were infield singles. Those are just something we’ll have to live with given his weak ground ball tendencies (see: Holmes, Clay). Fried’s settling in … There is more to life than Statcast sliders, but one of these is Aaron Judge and the other is Ben Rice:
Given the lack of good righty bench bats, the Yankees should keep Rice in the lineup against lefties. Forget platooning him. He’s crushing the ball (that’s Judge on the left and Rice on the right, by the way) … Oswald Peraza made his first two starts of the season Saturday and Sunday and had a big double in the ninth inning comeback. He then struck out on a pitch at eye level in the 11th. Two good at-bats in a row was too much to ask. Pablo Reyes, the other righty bench bat, didn’t play either game. I am going to update a leaderboard I included in last Friday’s post:
1. Yankees: 113 plate appearances against lefty relievers
2. Cubs: 83 (they've played three more games than the Yankees)
3. Tigers: 69
There have been 34 individual relief appearances against the Yankees this year (excluding Jake Bauers) and 18 of the 34 have been by lefties. Teams are telling us how they’re going to attack the Yankees and they’re not being subtle about it. It was bad at-bat after bad at-bat against the lefties in extra innings Sunday … And finally, I am a Gleyber Torres fan, he’s a solid player who was overhated, but I gotta say, the Jazz Chisholm Jr./Anthony Volpe middle infield is like magic. They’ve turned some nifty double plays already this year (like these), and I’m not sure those happen with Gleyber at second.
Injury updates
Clarke Schmidt (shoulder) made his first rehab start with Double-A Somerset on Saturday: 3.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 7 K (video) on 51 pitches. The plan is one more rehab start, then stepping into the rotation on April 15th or 16th against the Royals. That suggests Schmidt will make his next rehab start Thursday on normal rest, then start for the Yankees either on normal rest (April 15th) or with an extra day (April 16th) … Bellinger did not play Friday or Saturday because his back was stiff. He returned to the lineup Sunday and, in the first inning, he beat out an infield single and stole a base, so I guess the back is feeling good … Luis Gil (lat) is still about a week away from starting his throwing program. This is Week 5 of what the Yankees said would be at least a six-week shutdown period. So, nothing to update here, really … Jonathan Loáisiga (elbow) threw a bullpen with Double-A Somerset on Saturday. It doesn’t sound like a rehab assignment is imminent. He must have needed some watchful eyes for his bullpen with the Yankees on the road. Loáisiga remains on track to return in late May or June. The Yankees need him. They need all the quality pitching they can get … Jake Cousins (forearm) is expected to throw off a mound within the next few days. He’s on the 60-day injured list and can’t be activated until May 26th. That gives him plenty of time to get built up as a short reliever … Tyler Matzek (oblique) allowed a run in an inning in his first rehab game with Low-A Tampa on Sunday. Aaron Boone made it sound like they’re targeting late April for Matzek being a big league option … And finally, Scott Effross (hamstring) suffered a setback. No word on how long he’ll be delayed, though Boone says Effross has already resumed playing catch. I’m not gonna hold my breath waiting for his return.
Up next
Three games in Detroit, then a return home to play another National League team (the 8-1 Giants). That’s four interleague opponents in the first five series. What gives? Here’s what’s coming up between now and Friday’s post:
Monday at Tigers: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Casey Mize (3pm ET on YES)
Tuesday at Tigers: RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. LHP Tarik Skubal (1pm ET on YES)
Wednesday at Tigers: LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Jack Flaherty (1pm ET on Amazon Prime)
Thursday: off-day
It will be so damn cold in Detroit this week that MLB and the Tigers moved the start times for these games up. All three games were originally scheduled to start at 6:40pm ET. Instead, they’re afternoon games.
I’m not sure what to make of the Tigers this year and their first three series didn’t tell us a whole lot. They got swept by the Dodgers, took two of three from a Mariners team that can’t hit, then swept the very bad White Sox this past weekend. Mize looked great in Spring Training and in his first regular season start. It looks like the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft is finally putting it together. (Same for Spencer Torkelson, the No. 1 pick in 2020. He’s off to a great start.)
2. Early season minor league notes. Full season minor league baseball is underway. Triple-A Scranton started their season the Friday before last and Double-A Somerset, High-A Hudson Valley, and Low-A Tampa got underway last Friday. The rookie Florida Complex League season will begin in a few weeks. It’s too early for a full blown prospect thoughts thing, though I have some stuff I want to touch on or at least mention, so let’s do that now.
Lombard shoots up top 100 rankings
Baseball America (subs. req’d) published the April update of their top 100 prospects list Friday and SS George Lombard Jr. rocketed up from No. 88 before Spring Training to No. 38 now. He’s one spot ahead of White Sox LHP Hagen Smith, the No. 5 pick in last summer’s draft, and three spots ahead of Astros 3B/RF Cam Smith, last year’s No. 14 pick and a key part of the Kyle Tucker trade.
In a companion piece, J.J. Cooper (subs. req’d) says “it’s hard to find a scout who’s seen (Lombard) who isn’t raving about his combination of tools, skills and savvy.” I could really, really go for a full-fledged Lombard breakout this season. The Yankees haven’t had a player rip up the minors and become one of the game’s elite prospects since Anthony Volpe in 2021. Still only 19, Lombard is 3-for-10 with a double, two walks, and four strikeouts in Hudson Valley's first three games of 2025.
Yankees sign Hummel
The search for a righty bat has led the Yankees to C/1B/OF Cooper Hummel. They signed him to a minor league deal worth $820,000 at the MLB level late last week, according to Jeff Passan. Hummel, 30, hasn’t played a game with Scranton yet. He'll join them soon. Hummel has big league time and he's got a bit of a Quad-A thing going on in his career to date:
MLB: .159/.255/.275 (52 wRC+) with 10.6 BB% and 31.9 K% (235 PA)
Triple-A: .285/.419/.480 (130 wRC+) with 17.5 BB% and 20.9 K% (1,419 PA)
Hummel is a switch-hitter and his Triple-A platoon splits are pretty much even. He’s hit lefties as well as he’s hit righties. If the Yankees see Hummel as an option against lefties, he’s an atypical one. He’s not the traditional righty bat who bludgeons lefties. These days Hummel is primarily a corner outfielder who can also play first base and be an emergency catcher (only 51 games caught since 2021).
Hummel had a great Spring Training with the Astros (.315/.435/.447) but they opted to carry top prospect Cam Smith on the Opening Day roster. Hummel was DFAed, cleared waivers, elected free agency, then signed with the Yankees. The Yankees could use a righty bat who plays third base and that’s not Hummel, but they just need righty bats in general at this point. We’ll see where things go with him.
Miscellany
RHP Bryce Cunningham, last year’s second round pick, made his pro debut Sunday for Hudson Valley: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 7 K (video) on 76 pitches. RHP Ben Hess will start either Tuesday or Wednesday. Hess was last year’s first rounder … One weekend into the Double-A season, OF Spencer Jones is 3-for-11 with a double, a walk, and five strikeouts. That's still way too many. Jones is using the torpedo bat … It looks like C Edgleen Perez, my No. 15 prospect, might be building up after a spring injury. Low-A Tampa’s season began Friday. Perez DHed that night, caught five innings Saturday, then DHed again Sunday. That's the usual "easing him back into a starting catcher's workload after an injury" progression. That has allowed C Engelth Urena, my No. 28 prospect, to get two early starts behind the plate rather than man first base/DH … The Yankees are indeed having RHP Greysen Carter, one of my Prospects to Know, work as a starter this season despite major control problems. The hardest thrower in the system (hit 103 mph at Vanderbilt last spring) walked 69 batters in 73.2 college innings. His first pro start Sunday: 3 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 5 BB, 4 K on 71 pitches with Low-A Tampa. Yeah, sounds about right … Like Carter, LHP Griffin Herring is working as a starter after mostly pitching in relief in college. I mentioned him as a bit of a sleeper last week. Herring’s first start with Tampa was terrific: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 7 K on 83 pitches Saturday. The downside of the Rays taking over GMS Field is the Tarpons are playing on a backfield, which means no Statcast. We have no pitch data on Herring or Carter, or anyone with Tampa this year. Lame.
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
Alex G
Mike, a couple things I wanted to note before the beginning of this disaster of a Tigers series which is completely representative of what the team has been under Boone when faced with even the slightest of adversity: - The pitching depth Cashman has assembled is HORRIFIC. Even if Fried is a CY Young contender, this rotation is a real problem. They will need to acquire at least 2 starters before June because Stroman and Cookie cannot be getting any more run. There is no GM worse in baseball than Cashman when it comes to acquiring depth. As soon as one player gets hurt, this team is always pivoting right to below replacement-level, negative 1-2 WAR players. - The bullpen has been fine overall. Not worried about Devin Williams (yet). Would like to see some bullpen games if they're not going to do anything to address the rotation in the near-term. - Love seeing Grisham play like this and happy to be wrong about him being kept on the roster this year! - The young guys: Ben Rice has been awesome. Now lets start seeing this sort of development from all our young hitters, not just one. Volpe has been pretty good but he also did this to start last season then was horrible so I need to see him carry it over into the summer to believe it. Dominguez has been up and down so far and Wells has been really disappointing. - Judge has no protection in the lineup and they continue getting carved up by LHP as we were all alarmed about going into this season. Everybody unfortunately saw this coming except for Cashman.
MikeD
He'll be traded to Tampa eventually and become their closer! Until that time, he's a myth.
MikeD
No and no, but as always, JF, thank you for reading.
kyle
Need Griffin Canning v Grffin Herring match up at least once
chuangeUp
🤡 can you go ahead and analyse Oswald Peraza's 226 wRC+ 11PA season for me. Try to keep it within 500 words.
MikeD
Devin Williams has not been crisp. His career walk rate, never low, has moved from 4.5 to 7.7. His K rate is dramatically lower, his swing-and-miss rate lower, his batting average against up, and his ground-ball rate non-existent. His unhittable pitch is hittable, being read by the batters out of hand. That's the bad news. The good news is it's all of three appearances, interrupted by a paternity leave. It's also quite possible he experiences his own version of what Mike used to call "What's Wrong with Mo Week." It's likely a mechanical adjustment, but we need him to lock him. He would normally eat up a hitter like Pham. I'll feel more comfortable with the pitching when Schmidt returns, and the bullpen is reinforced with Cousins and Hamilton, and eventually Loáisiga to support Weaver and Williams. Judge's ABs have not looked quite as good the last few games. It's not the results I'm talking about, but the increased swing and misses, a few ground balls. I can usually spot when he's about to enter a slump, and I had that feeling right at the end of the regular season last year.
John G
So far I have been pleasantly surprised by the lineup, though I'm still pessimistic in the long term. Fried and Williams have to be better but I have faith there.
Mike Farley
Yes! And he’s finally turned into a pretty good player.
Mike F.
Ben Rortvedt!
Mike Farley
Mike, Scott Efross reminds me of another player, the one you always joked about… like did he really exist?! Because he never played.
