RAB Thoughts
patreon
April 14th, 2025: Volpe, Stroman, Bullpen, Rodón, Warren, Goldschmidt
🕑 Added 2025-04-14 10:00:14 +0000 UTCYou know things aren’t going well when the manager has to practically beg for a rain delay to spare his bullpen like Aaron Boone did Friday. Excluding Babe Ruth, the Yankees have never used two position players to pitch in one game. I thought Oswaldo Cabrera and Pablo Reyes might have to soak up three innings between them before the umpires granted the mercy rain delay. It was that kinda night. Here is Tuesday’s post on Monday. I’ve been under the weather the last few days, so I’m hitting publish on what I have now so I can spend Monday on the couch with my good friends DayQuil and Advil Cold & Sinus.
1. Weekend thoughts. Five series into the season, the Yankees look pretty much exactly like the team I expected them to be coming out of Spring Training. The rotation as a whole is shaky because of the injuries, the middle relief is unreliable, they’re (still) prone to dopey errors and mistakes, and the offense is pretty meh unless Aaron Judge is going nuclear. In the last seven games the Yankees have been out-homered 9-3 and out-walked 35-25. In related news, the Yankees are 2-5 in those seven games. Here are a few thoughts on the rainy and messy Giants series.
Volpe’s walks and plate discipline
Eight walks in 15 games for Anthony Volpe, who drew eight walks in his final 34 games last year, and at one point drew eight walks in a 62-game span last summer. Including the postseason, Volpe has walked 18 times in his last 29 games. For all the talk about him swinging hard, which he is still very much doing, Volpe’s also improved his plate discipline. Here are the numbers:
You can argue that Volpe’s not swinging enough. That 38.2% swing rate is 11th lowest among the 182 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. The chase rate (O-Swing%) is very good (MLB average: 28.4%), but the in-zone swing rate (Z-Swing%) is below the 64.6% league average. The next step is being a little more aggressive in the zone without upping chases too much. Not the easiest needle to thread, but the greats do it.
I’m not ready to fully buy into Volpe yet because he’s burned me many times before, but this year’s early season hot streak feels more real than last year’s. Last year’s was nothing more than a hitter selling out for contact and going on a BABIP heater. This year’s Volpe is more patient (to the point that he might be passive), and he’s also swinging harder and hitting the ball harder. It’s easy to tell which one is 2024 and which one is 2025:
It’s impossible to say how much the torpedo bats are helping Volpe. It’s not just that the bats can help him make more/better contact, there’s also a confident component, which we can’t measure. If Volpe believes the bats will help handle more pitches, then how could that not help? Torpedo bats aren’t the reason for Volpe’s early season success, I don’t think. They’re just part of it.
Volpe had a relatively quiet weekend against the Giants (1-for-9 with three walks) and he’s 1-for-16 since the start of the Tigers series, so this is a weird time to praise him, but I think he’s been more competitive at the plate than he was last year. He’s not overmatched, he’s not flailing as much, and the contact he makes is strong. Against my better judgment, I am cautiously (only cautiously) optimistic about Volpe right now.
When an injury makes the team better
I don’t think we’ll have to worry about Marcus Stroman throwing the 140 innings he needs to gain access to his $18M player option. Stroman's thrown 9.1 innings in three starts and he needed 46 pitches to get two (2) outs Friday. The Yankees were down 5-0 with a runner at second before the Giants made their first out of the game. Stroman put the game out of reach before Paul O’Neill could ask them to bring some snacks to the booth.
“Just didn’t look very comfortable from the start,” Austin Wells said about Stroman. “… He just didn’t get ahead. They had some good swings on some pitches. Not a good recipe.”
Last weekend in Pittsburgh, Stroman cruised through three innings before unraveling in the fourth. Including that fourth inning against the Pirates, he’s retired only five of the last 17 batters he’s faced while walking six and giving up four extra-base hits. 136 pitchers have thrown at least 100 innings since last Opening Day. Here’s the bottom of the Stuff+ leaderboard:
136. Marcus Stroman: 83
135. Kyle Gibson: 84
134. Ben Lively: 85
133. Jose Quintana: 85
132. Martín Pérez: 85
There’s more to life than Stuff+, which has slightly more predictive value than xFIP, but it is a handy catch-all metric for the physical characteristics of a pitcher’s arsenal. Stroman’s stinks. Literally the worst stuff in baseball per this one stat. He’s sitting around 89 mph and hasn’t thrown a pitch above 91.1 mph in his three regular season starts. Stroman is operating with zero margin of error. None.
And he knows this. Why do you think he nibbles so much? Because getting hitters to chase for whiffs/weak contact is Stroman’s only real path to success. He gets hammered when he’s in the zone. We’ve seen it these last two years. Right now Stroman’s stuff is consistent with an up/down arm. The kinda guy you call up when you need a spot start or low leverage long man. Not someone who holds down a rotation spot.
Stroman was placed on the injured list Saturday with knee inflammation and received a cortisone shot. Boone said the “hope is that it's not something too serious and that we can attack this.” Clarke Schmidt will slide into Stroman’s rotation spot and Carlos Carrasco will stay in the rotation. That’s not ideal, but what else can the Yankees do? This is the rotation depth chart right now:
1. RHP Gerrit Cole (out for 2025 with Tommy John surgery)
2. LHP Max Fried
3. LHP Carlos Rodón
4. RHP Luis Gil (out until at least late May/June with lat strain)
5. RHP Clarke Schmidt (will return Wednesday from shoulder issue)
6. RHP Marcus Stroman (very bad, also out with knee inflammation)
7. RHP Will Warren
8. RHP Carlos Carrasco (at the end of the line)
9. RHP JT Brubaker (does not exist)
10. RHP Allan Winans, I guess
Maybe the knee issue explains why Stroman went from cruising through three innings in Pittsburgh to not being able to get anyone out. It’s been tough sledding for him since the middle of last season though. This year’s struggles are merely a continuation of last year's second half struggles. The best case is Stroman’s knee heals up and he comes back as a competent five-and-dive starter. That would be an improvement over his first three starts.
Boone’s cry for bullpen help
I applaud Boone for bringing Luke Weaver into a jam in the sixth inning Saturday. It was a big spot and it called for your top reliever. If anything, Boone should have brought Weaver in to face Wilmer Flores one batter sooner, but better late than never, I guess. Saturday was the first time Weaver entered a game earlier than the seventh inning since last Aug. 10th. That was 33 appearances ago, including the postseason.
Boone’s bullpen management can be paint-by-numbers. He has a closer, an eighth inning guy, etc. I’m not sure using Weaver in the sixth was Boone seeing the light as much as it was a cry for help. The manager didn’t trust the other relievers available to him, so he went outside his comfort zone and used his top guy at least one inning earlier than usual. Can you blame him?
Luke Weaver: 0.00 ERA and 2.39 FIP
Rest of the bullpen: 4.14 ERA and 3.58 FIP
Fernando Cruz is the quintessential “strikes a lot of guys out but you will never ever feel comfortable with him in a close game” reliever. Mark Leiter Jr. has been sneaky good outside the grand slam against the Diamondbacks, though I wouldn’t say I trust him. Devin Williams has been going through it early this year. I’m hopeful those last three batters Sunday were a sign he’s locking in. He looked really great for those three batters.
Other than recalling Brent Headrick (eligible to return next Tuesday) and maybe re-signing rent-a-reliever Adam Ottavino, this is it. This is the bullpen Boone and the Yankees have to work with. The cavalry (Jake Cousins, Jonathan Loáisiga, etc.) is weeks away. You’re not making any impact trades now and it’s still too early in the season for teams to cut ties on interesting scrap-heapers.
So, how can the Yankees improve their bullpen? By their relievers pitching better. That’s really it. Boone can pick his spots better, like he did with Weaver in the sixth inning Saturday, and the rotation could make the bullpen’s life easier by giving more length, but that seems unlikely. Otherwise it’s on the relievers on the roster to pitch better. The walks must come down (15.4%!) and there needs to be better execution in general. Too often they’ve been burned by a hanging splitter, a middle-middle heater, etc.
Miscellany
Even when Rodón pitches well, he leaves us disappointed. He got beat on his fourth best pitch (curveball) on Jung-Hoo Lee’s second homer Sunday. Rodón was really good the first five innings! But disaster is always right around the corner with him. Four starts into his season, Rodón has a 5.48 ERA (4.96 FIP). He’s doing whatever the opposite of stepping up during Cole’s absence is … Best start of Warren’s MLB career Saturday: 5 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 6 K (video) on 91 pitches. He gave up a two-run homer, then shook it off and retired 10 straight, and 11 of the final 12 batters he faced. He also held San Francisco’s lefties to 0-for-6 with a walk and three strikeouts. Warren is so close to being really good. The stuff is plenty lively. He just needs to locate more consistently. You can see how Warren can be an effective starter for the Yankees this year in a way you can’t with Carrasco and Stroman … Austin Wells doubled off the very top of the wall Friday night (video) and it would have been a homer with nicer weather. That double is notable because it was Wells’ third extra-base hit against lefties this season. He had two all of last year. Wells has done a little more chasing out of the zone and a little less swinging in the zone this year:
2024: 26.4% chase and 70.7% in-zone swings
2025: 30.9% chase and 67.9% in-zone swings
It’s early, but I would like to see him tighten that up a little bit. Wells has let some hittable pitches go by and swung at a few too many pitchers’ pitches … I was all ready to praise Paul Goldschmidt’s defense, then he let a ball eat him up Sunday, allowing what proved to be the game-winning run to cross the plate. That play aside, Goldschmidt’s been really good at first base. Maybe the best defensive first baseman the Yankees have had since Mark Teixeira? I’m not ready to say that after only two weeks, but he's been good. I appreciate the early season hot streak at the plate too (.357/.403/.482 and 153 wRC+) even though it’s basically all BABIP and no hard contact. Hopefully the Yankees start getting a little more pop from first base soon … Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s home run Sunday (video) snapped a career worst 0-for-24. He’s also botched a few plays in the field recently. Chisholm’s offensive slumps are ugly, it is what it is, but he has to be better in the field. The current pitching staff needs all the outs it can get … Here’s a weird one: Jasson Domínguez has four walks against lefties and none against righties. That is early season small sample size noise to the max. Overall, Domínguez is 10-for-27 (.371) with three doubles and a homer against righties, and 1-for-20 (.050) with a double against lefties. He’s only 22, that’s too young to give up switch-hitting, but the difference between righty Domínguez and lefty Domínguez is huge. You can see it in the swings. He’s all disjointed as a righty … I know he doubled earlier in the game Sunday, but why in the world does J.C. Escarra have the green light in a 3-0 count down a run in the eighth? And if he does have the green light down 3-0, Escarra’s gotta do better than roll over on this pitch …
… for a ground ball to the right side. It had a hit probability of 35% and first baseman Casey Schmitt made it look like a nice play because he’s a third baseman with 30 career innings at first … Did the Yankees finally get Volpe a helmet that fits? I don’t remember seeing it fly off once this season. Maybe it has and I missed it, but it hasn’t happened nearly as often as last year, when it happened literally every time he ran the bases. It’s about time, guys.
Injury updates
Loáisiga (elbow) threw his first live BP on Saturday. He’s got a few more of those ahead of him before starting a rehab assignment. Loáisiga is targeting late May/June, though the Yankees have not yet put him on the 60-day injured list. They’re keeping the door open in case he’s able to return sooner … DJ LeMahieu (calf) was among the hitters to face Loáisiga. He’s going to Tampa to continue taking live BP soon. He’s not far from a rehab assignment … Giancarlo Stanton (elbows, calf) is continuing to hit against the high velocity machine and has increased his running. He’s making progress. I don't know when he's coming back. I just know his return is not imminent … And finally, a Triple-A injury of note: Alex Jackson was placed on Scranton’s 7-day injured list Saturday. Not sure what’s wrong with him, but Jackson was the de facto third catcher. Scranton’s catchers are Ronaldo Hernández and Jesus Rodriguez (promoted to replace Jackson) at the moment. Is Ben Rice next in line to catch if Wells or Escarra get hurt?
Up next
The Royals come to town for an ALDS rematch, then the Yankees will start a road trip in Tampa. It will be their first series of the season against an AL East rival. The Yankees will be the road team in their own Spring Training stadium too. They have to use the visitor’s clubhouse at George M. Steinbrenner Field and everything. Here’s what’s coming up between now and Friday’s post:
Monday vs. Royals: RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. RHP Seth Lugo (7pm ET on YES, MLBN)
Tuesday vs. Royals: LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Michael Wacha (7pm ET on YES)
Wednesday vs. Royals: RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. LHP Kris Bubic (7pm ET on Amazon Prime)
Thursday vs. Rays: TBA vs. TBA (7pm ET on Amazon Prime)
The Yankees announced Schmidt as Wednesday’s starter. It’s official. Allan Winans was called up to be a temporary long man when Stroman was placed on the injured list, after the bullpen got worn down Friday. I assume Winans will go down for Schmidt. A blowout win tonight or tomorrow would be helpful. Let Winans get a 3-4 inning save while the rest of the bullpen gets the night off, that kinda thing.
The Royals are a cromulent 8-8 thanks entirely to their pitching. They’ve scored only 3.25 runs per game in the early going, second fewest in baseball, and only seven times in 16 games have they scored four or more runs (five of those seven times they scored four runs exactly). The Royals can really pitch. Hit? Not so much. Bobby Witt Jr. (136 wRC+) and Maikel Garcia (128 wRC+ that is trending down) are the only players on the roster above a 92 wRC+ (min. 20 PA). Good series for the pitching to get on track, I’d say.
Thursday’s TBAs line up to be Warren and Drew Rasmussen. Thursday is also the midpoint of this 13 games in 13 days stretch. I wonder if the Yankees will use a spot sixth starter that day to give everyone extra rest? It could even be a Ryan Yarbrough/Yoendrys Gómez tag team if the bullpen workload allows. I thought maybe the Yankees would use Schmidt’s return to give the rotation an extra day (i.e let Carrasco make one last start before removing him from the rotation), but Stroman’s injury took that off the table.
I’m guessing the Yankees are looking forward to Tampa. They’ve played in nothing but cold and more often than not miserable weather since the Brewers series. In 12 regular season games at GMS Field there have been 95 runs scored and 31 home runs hit, and also a lot of outfielders running around looking silly because of the wind. Those four games with the Rays this coming weekend should be a hoot.
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
Brian
Vlad said: “My dad told me to trust God and to try to get the last penny that I could from the organization." And what's happened? He's stayed with the Blue Jays. That guy is a good player. So, we can take it from his decision, that God still isn't doing the Yankees any favors, and putting in a good word for them (despite the presence in the team of Aaron Judge).
Sammy C
Desperation overcomes that almighty analytics department. Strange to think that when your payroll is north of $300 million.
Vismay Pandia
You're essentially trading DeGrom for Warren as Goldschmidt is not a fantasy relevant 1B this year. I'm sure you can find a better 1B than him
DZB
Fun fact, Rice has now surpassed Stanton's fWAR from 2024 (0.9 to 0.8). I appreciate Stanton is a righty, but I don't understand why people think he's a missing ingredient.
MikeD
Warren is at the stage Schmidt was a couple years back. The stuff is there, but now he has to take up to the next level on the MLB roster as Schmidt did in 2024. That's part of development. I get why he's listed behind Stroman and Carrasco above, but he is ahead of both at this stage as a starting pitcher option. Your point that this year’s Volpe is more patient to the point that he might be passive is the flip-side reaction to watching Grisham. I always thought he had another gear he wasn't hitting because he was too passive. Seems to be attacking more pitches this year. Will it last?
MikeD
Biggest issue is the starting rotation, which was supposed to be their strength before the injuries. Schmidt coming back, and hopefully Gil by end of May, will smooth it over, although Gil is probably more late June.
MikeD
Likely a combination of a few things. Wells went into a bit of slump, but more important was Rice took off, as has Goldschmidt. Their preference is likely not to have their catcher batting leadoff, but I suspect we'll see him there again from time to time.
Ivan Irizarry
IMO hash browns are way way overrated. Most of the time they’re not cooked properly. When they’re done right they’re excellent but breakfast usually has to be cooked quick, which leads to poor cookery on those potatoes. Just do tots or home fries. They tend to be more consistent.
Joe
It's really just stunning that Cashman signed Stroman as a free agent and gave him this contract. Whether he hits 140 innings or not, giving him 18 million a year for 2 years was literally equivalent to setting it on fire. Who was he outbidding? The guy does nothing modern baseball pitching appreciates.
Will
Has Wells led off a single game since opening day? It's so weird - it feels like they did it as a bit or a gimmick - "this will make for an interesting headline" - but never intended it to be long term. Would still like to see him hitting up there more, but as long as Rice keeps looking like the real deal, I won't object to him being the lefty leading off ahead of Judge.
Will
I liked how Boone phrased it as "starting to move around more outside". Made it sound like Stanton's been a shut in, sitting around in sweat pants, getting really into Elden Ring.
John G
Well the good vibes from the very start of the season are over. If you squint a bit there's some reason for optimism with the lineup and you gotta love how great Rice has been but the offense is still not doing enough. And now the pitching has predictably gone from a strength to a weakness. Schmidt returning will be huge.
The Original Drew
I have a trade in fantasy on the table: I would get Warren and Goldschmidt and my opponent would get deGrom. My initial reaction is yes, but idk, deGrom is building himself back up and Goldschmidt is riding a career high BABIP at the moment.
Zack
He is going on the 60-day IL with an injury from said stretching.
Alex G
Probably means he was able to stretch when he got out of bed in the morning.
Alex G
Just not impressed with how this team has looked. Rice has really been the only young player who has stood out in any sort of way. Bellinger looks like a questionable at best acquisition at the moment. Cashman constructed yet another horrible roster, especially given the resources at his disposal. And as usual, there are so many confounding managerial decisions - i.e. why is Carrasco still getting starts when they can be utilizing bullpen games instead (speaking of the bullpen, it was a mistake to not re-sign Kahnle), why is a backup rookie catcher being given the green light in a 3-0 count? I'm sure in 3 weeks from now we will also be asking why DJ is back to playing every day.
I'm Not The Droids You're Looking For
We’ve rather rapidly entered the not fun to watch portion of the season. The roster construction is pretty awful, again. And that’s just the offense.
Mike
Love the Stanton has increased his running line. Does that mean he has moved to speed walking?
