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April 18th, 2025: Schmidt, Domínguez, Bellinger, Fried, Cruz, Leiter, WBC, Mailbag
🕑 Added 2025-04-18 10:00:17 +0000 UTCPSA: I’ve had a few people ask about an annual membership rather than monthly. Patreon started offering annual memberships last month, so let me look into it this weekend and I’ll get them set up. I’ll be perfectly honest, $3 (or $5!) a month is already a pretty sweet deal (or so I’ve been told), so I can’t promise I’ll bake a discount into the annual membership. The benefit would be paying upfront rather than getting dinged every month, if you prefer that (monthly memberships will remain an option). Let me think about it. Thanks as always for reading and your support. Let’s get to today’s post.
1. Weekday thoughts. The Yankees hit three homers in the span of 11 pitches in the fifth inning Monday after hitting three home runs in their previous seven games. That’s more like it. And wow, the Yankees flat out stole that game Thursday. Will Warren got five outs, the Rays had 12 baserunners in the first three innings, Luke Weaver was unavailable (workload), etc. They had no business winning that one. The vibes are good right now. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.
Schmidt’s return
Welcome back, Clarke Schmidt. Not a moment too soon either. Schmidt pitched okay in his season debut Wednesday: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 2 K on 73 pitches. He threw 71 pitches in his final rehab start, so I’m guessing the Yankees were targeting 75 or so on Wednesday, and will build him up to 100 pitches the next few times out. Compared to the guy he’s replacing (Marcus Stroman), Schmidt looked like Cy Young.
"In the first he's up over 20 (pitches), so you kinda go into the night, hopefully you get four (innings), couple times through (the lineup) maybe," Aaron Boone said after the game (video). "For him to almost get through six, to be that efficient, keep us right there, I thought it was a good night for him, and another good step to being all the way back for him. Really excited he's back in the rotation."
Schmidt’s stuff seemed fine. His velocity was right where it was last year and the curveball and sweeper were spinning in at over 3,000 rpm. He just didn’t locate all that well. Look at his sweeper locations. This is from the catcher’s point of view:
A lot of them backed up and were inside on righties instead of, you know, sweeping away. Schmidt looked like a guy whose Spring Training was interrupted by back and shoulder trouble, and made only two rehab starts before jumping back into the big leagues. He looks a little rusty still. Hopefully he tightens things up once he gets some more innings under his belt. The stuff was there. The location needs work. Not unexpected, I'd say.
“We lost some guys with Gerrit, who’s hard to replace, and then obviously Gil is coming back,” Schmidt told Bryan Hoch. “But I definitely have to step up. The whole rotation has to step up. I know that my job is to go out there and be as consistent as possible every five days, and give my team a chance to win.”
Martian landing
The Royals series was the best series of Jasson Domínguez’s young big league career on both sides of the ball. He played strong defense in left field Monday, including making a lunging catch on a Sal Perez line drive (video). By catch probability (60%), it was the best catch by a Yankees’ outfielder in the early days of the season. Domínguez is growing more confident defensively with each passing game.
Then, on Tuesday, Domínguez roped a bases-clearing double (video) against lefty Angel Zerpa to turn a 2-1 deficit into a 4-2 lead. It was only his second hit off a lefty this year, though it was also his third hit of the game. El Marciano went 3-for-8 with a double and two walks in the Royals series. Overall, Domínguez is hitting .241/.333/.379 (112 wRC+) on the season, and that is heavily skewed against righties.
“Everybody wants to have a 3 RBI game and three hits,” Domínguez told Hoch after Tuesday’s win. “It feels really nice. Yesterday I had a big game in my defense. I felt that confidence, for sure.”
As a reward for his great defense Monday and great offense Tuesday, Domínguez was pulled from both games for a defensive replacement. Boone said he took Domínguez out Tuesday because he lost his contacts on the double, which seems like a convenient excuse more than the reason. If guys had to come out every time they lost a contact, there would be so many more substitutions each night.
More than anything, I’m bummed Domínguez didn’t get to jog out to his position and get an ovation from the fans in left field after the double. Like every young player, Domínguez has had ups and downs early this season, but even when he’s going good, he’s still being lifted for defense. He barely gets a chance to enjoy his successes. It sucks. I wish they’d show a little more faith in the kid. He’s earning it.
“He goes out there every day and he works his butt off just to get better,” Jazz Chisholm Jr. told Hoch about Domínguez. That’s all you can ask from a young kid, just to go out there and keep working. You know you’re going to get better over the years. He’s 22, right? He’s got a lot more years in this game. He’s going to be okay.”
Saved by the Belli
I badly miss Juan Soto’s bat but I do not miss his defense, and neither do the Yankees. Cody Bellinger, who for all intents and purposes is replacing Soto in the outfield and in the lineup, saved Wednesday’s game with a tremendous diving catch in right field (video). I thought it was an easy hit off the bat and hoped it wouldn’t roll to the wall for a double, but it hung up long enough for Bellinger to run it down.
Soto doesn’t make that catch* and you know what? Aaron Judge doesn’t either. Judge’s days as a top flight defender are over and that is to be expected with his 33rd birthday coming up next week. Bellinger’s no longer a truly elite defender either, but he is younger and faster than Judge, and he needed every bit of that youth and speed to make the catch. Good timing for Judge’s DH day. What a fun way to cap a sweep.
“That might be my first game-saving catch. I’m not sure,” Bellinger told Hoch. “I was glad I came down with it. I had a little awkward second step there, and my head was bobbing a little too much. But I had a good beat on it and I saw the way the ball was going. I was just glad I was able to catch it and get the win.”
Offensively, Bellinger is struggling bad, with a .186/.239/.288 (49 wRC+) line through 19 games. That 49 wRC+ ranks 154th among 175 qualified hitters. This is what I get for being bullish about a hitter with a very wide range of potential outcomes. Boone acknowledged earlier this week that Bellinger is still receiving treatment on his back. Is it hampering him at the plate? Maybe. I kinda hope so, because then we would have an explanation for his struggles and an idea of what needs to happen to get right.
Even when he’s not hitting, Bellinger can still help the Yankees defensively (see: Wednesday’s catch), but the Yankees do need him to hit. If 10 days on the injured list can help here, then just do it, and not make him grind through an achy back. Trent Grisham has earned more playing time, right? Going without Bellinger for 10 days in April is worth it if it helps him perform better in the bigger picture 162-game season.
* Of course, if you have Soto’s bat, you might not have needed a diving catch to beat a Royals team that is currently 29th in runs scored per game.
Maximum Fried
I am very much enjoying the Max Fried experience. He had one wobbly inning in an otherwise terrific start Tuesday: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 7 K, 1 HR (video) on 94 pitches. Fried is very good and I also find him to be a very enjoyable viewing experience. Deep and diverse arsenal, unpredictable, good control, works fast, etc. Any pitcher who can dot a rainbow curveball for a called strike like this has my heart forever.
“I’ll turn to (bench coach Brad Ausmus) and be like, ‘Man, I would not like to hit off this guy,'” Boone told Gary Phillips about Fried after Tuesday’s win. “The fastball’s cutting. He can add to it. He can rip a 95, 97 at times. The sinker’s really good. I thought overall he was really good.”
Soon after the Yankees signed Fried, Matt Blake said they had a few ideas to “help tighten the screws” on his arsenal. I’m not smart enough to really dive into the pitch data, but Lance Brozdowski is, and he wrote about Fried’s arsenal after Tuesday’s start. Here’s what Brozdowski wrote in the free edition of his newsletter (which you should definitely subscribe to):
Yankees Max Fried has overhauled his righty approach. I mentioned the sinker tweak when he made his Yankees debut, but there was more under the hood. He’s throwing a true four-seam fastball with arm-side movement alongside the primary fastball he threw last year, which is a cutter shape tagged as a four-seamer (confusing, I know). In every one of his starts, he has a noticeable cluster of fastballs that move arm-side with separation from his normal fastball (see picture below). The shape with arm-side has been located more up in the zone than the regular cutter shape, further confirming it’s a different pitch.
The Yankees also appear to have taken away the 2 slider shapes he was throwing last season to righties (~10% usage combined in the previous year). Instead, he’s throwing his sweeper more, which is odd given the taboo nature of sweepers to opposite-handed hitters. He’s tracking for the highest strikeout rate of his career at ~27%. His changes feel impactful and sustainable. His mid-3s ERA projection feels light at the moment. Buy or Sell: top 12 pitcher in baseball rest of season?
Four starts into his Yankees career, Fried has a 1.88 ERA (2.65 FIP) with strong strikeout (25.7%), walk (4.8%), and ground ball (47.1%) rates. Given his track record as a 55-ish GB% guy, there might even be a little room left for Fried to be even better than he has been, not that I would expect him to maintain a sub-2 ERA all season. Not a knock on Fried. It’s just that no one does that.
The master plan this season was pairing Fried with Gerrit Cole. The UCL monster had different ideas and Cole’s injury has pushed Fried to the top of the rotation. It’s not just that the Yankees need Fried to pitch well and for his starts to be Win Day. They also need him to chew up innings and give the bullpen a bit of a breather every fifth game, like Cole. He’s done that and then some. Fried’s been awesome so far.
Miscellany
Judge’s game-winning homer Thursday (video) snapped a 10-game home run drought. Even without the homers, he went 13-for-34 (.382) with eight walks (.523 OBP) in those 10 games. He’s hitting .400/.512/.771 (263 wRC+) overall. Judge missed the Triple Crown by five AVG points in 2022 and 10 AVG points in 2024. Seems like he’s taking that personally this year … On that note, the Yankees have not gotten a home run from a right-handed hitter other than Judge since Anthony Volpe during the second game of the Diamondbacks series. Paul Goldschmidt has been really good overall, but it’s all singles in front of outfielders and doubles down the line. This team’s power is skewed toward the left side of the plate even with Judge … Very nice start for Carlos Carrasco against an admittedly weak Royals lineup on Monday: 5 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 HR (video). Carrasco threw 28 fastballs among his 79 pitches and only 32 of his 79 pitches were in the zone. The swing happy Royals obliged and chased repeatedly, and got themselves out. That is the formula for Carrasco at this point in his career. Try to get whiffs/weak contact on non-fastballs out of the zone … 53 pitches and one swing and miss for Will Warren on Thursday. He had nothing to put the Rays away. They kept fouling away pitches until they got something to drive or Warren walked them. With the bullpen having to get 22 outs Thursday and a Carrasco start looming Saturday, Carlos Rodón needs to pitch deep into the game Friday … Devin Williams is settling in. Quick 1-2-3 innings the last two times out and he’s getting the ball in the zone more often. I was annoyed by his early struggles but I was willing to give him more time to get into the flow of the season before worrying. Glad he’s looking more like himself … Fernando Cruz and Mark Leiter Jr. have had one disastrous three-run outing each. All their other appearances combined: 16.1 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 0 ER, 4 BB, 24 K, 0 HR. Those three-run outings count, for sure, but more often than not, Cruz and Leiter have been really good this season. Cruz is running a 42.1 K% and 20.3% swinging strike rate. He’s gonna frustrate at times, I know, but that’s a pretty nice third or fourth option in the bullpen … Domínguez has to slide on that play at second base Wednesday (video). He got caught assuming the Royals would just take the out at first on the slow roller to second. Gotta finish the play, man. Yankees fundamentals strike again … And finally, Chisholm tweeted “Not even fucking close!!!!!” about five minutes after he got ejected for arguing a strike three call Thursday night (it has since been deleted). Funny, yes, but he’s gonna hear from MLB soon. The league’s social media policy says players and team personnel can’t post anything that “questions the impartiality of or otherwise denigrates” umpires. Does Jazz’s tweet rise to the level of a suspension? I have no idea. I’m sure he’ll get a talking too and his wallet will be a little lighter. Hopefully that’s it.
Injury updates
Luis Gil (lat) is not ready to start throwing. He had a follow-up MRI earlier this week and the doctors want to see more healing first. Gil will remain shut down another 10 days. This is Week 6 of what the Yankees said would be at least a six-week shutdown, so we’re entering “at least” territory. This pushes Gil’s return from late May/early June to mid June. Always bet the over on lat strains. They are nasty, uncooperative injuries … DJ LeMahieu (calf) could start a rehab assignment Tuesday. Position players get 20 days on rehab, so if he starts it Tuesday, the latest LeMahieu could return Sunday, May 11th … Jonathan Loáisiga (elbow) threw his second live BP on Wednesday. He has at least two more of those ahead of them, and if they go well, he could then start a rehab assignment … Jake Cousins (forearm) is throwing off a mound. Live BP and rehab games are still a few weeks off. Cousins is on the 60-day injured list and can’t be activated until May 26th anyway, so no reason to rush … Tyler Matzek (oblique) has allowed one run in 4.2 minor league innings. He’s starting to check all the necessary boxes. Matzek threw two innings in one game, entered in the middle of an inning in another, etc. He has a May 1st opt out. I’m guessing the Yankees will find a way to add him to the MLB roster as long as he continues to look good and healthy. A second matchup lefty would be nice.
Up next
The final three games of the four-game series at George M. Steinbrenner Field – it is very odd watching games that count in that ballpark, no? – then the Yankees go to Cleveland for an ALCS rematch. Here’s what’s coming up this weekend:
Friday at Rays: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Drew Rasmussen (7pm ET on YES)
Saturday at Rays: RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. RHP Shane Baz (4pm ET on YES)
Sunday at Rays: LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Ryan Pepiot (1:30pm ET on YES)
Monday at Guardians: TBA vs. TBA (6pm ET on YES)
I get that it;s in MLB’s and Hal Steinbrenner’s best interests to portray the Yankees letting the Rays use GMS Field as some great act of civic duty, but my dudes, the Rays are paying the Yankees close to $15M in rent. MLB and the Rays also paid for all sorts of CBA-mandated upgrades to GMS Field and the backfield Low-A Tampa is using, and the Yankees get to keep everything. It was a business decision above all.
Anyway, Monday’s TBAs line up to be Schmidt and Gavin Williams. Other than missing Paul Skenes in Pittsburgh and Cole Ragans during the Royals series, it feels like the Yankees have run into the other team’s top three starters in every series this season. Not once have they caught a No. 5 starter or the No. 7 guy who’s only in the rotation because of two injuries. Annoying.
2. Judge named USA captain for 2026 WBC. For the first time, Aaron Judge will play in the World Baseball Classic. He has been named Team USA’s captain for next spring’s event. He’s the first player to commit to USA for the 2026 WBC and I believe he was the first player to commit to the tournament period, for any team. Mike Trout served as USA’s captain in 2023.
“After we have another deep run this year and finish the job, it will be fun going out there and representing my country,” Judge told Gary Phillips. “We’ll just keep it rolling right into the WBC.”
I have no idea what comes with being USA’s captain, but Trout actively recruited players in 2023, so I guess Judge will do some of that. That, uh, might not be the best idea seeing how Judge pushed the Yankees to re-sign Anthony Rizzo and trade for Alex Verdugo, among other things. He’s an unbelievable hitter and a great, great player. The GM skills leave a little to be desired though lol.
Judge skipped the 2023 WBC because it was his first year as Yankees’ captain, and he said he wanted to focus on that role. Next year’s WBC might be his last chance to represent his country. MLB players might be allowed to play in the 2028 Los Angeles Olympics, but that is not definite, and the next WBC will be in either 2029 or 2030. Judge will be into his late 30s by then. It might be 2026 or never for him.
Judge said he didn’t ask the Yankees for approval to play in the WBC and he doesn’t have to. Teams can only prevent players from playing in it under certain injury conditions. Those conditions: 60 total days on the injured list in the most recent MLB season, including at least 15 of the final 60 days. No team wants their star player playing in the WBC, Yankees included. Not much they do about it though.
(Mark Teixeira tore the tendon sheath in his wrist preparing for the 2013 WBC and it completely destroyed his season. That’s the nightmare scenario. Ultimately, players can get hurt anywhere. WBC, Spring Training, live BP, whatever. Just gotta cross your fingers and hope for the best.)
Francys Romero says Jazz Chisholm Jr. intends to play for Great Britain in the WBC, something he did not get to do in 2023 because the Marlins used a 2022 injury to block him. Anthony Volpe told Deesha Thosar he will only play for USA, not Italy, though I’m not sure that will happen with Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr. on the shortstop depth chart. Maybe Judge uses his pull to get Volpe in? I dunno.
Oswaldo Cabrera (Venezuela), Jasson Domínguez (Dominican Republic), Max Fried (USA, Israel), and Austin Wells (USA) are among the other Yankees under contract/team control next year who could make their way into the 2026 WBC. You never know which random minor leaguer will sneak onto a roster too. Righty Indigo Diaz, who the Yankees got in the Lucas Luetge trade with the Braves, played for Canada in 2023.
Team USA announced their coaching staff a week or two ago. It includes some familiar names:
Manager: Mark DeRosa
Assistant managers: Fredi González, Brian McCann, Michael Young
Bench coach: Skip Schumaker
Hitting coach: Matt Holliday
Pitching coach: Andy Pettitte
First base coach: George Lombard Sr.
Third base coach: Dino Ebel
Bullpen coach: David Ross
Seems like DeRosa filled out his staff with his best buddies and favorite coaches from his playing days. Perk of the job, I suppose. The full rosters are months away. They won’t be finalized until February, and even after that there will be a few adds/drops as players get hurt in Spring Training. Players will commit between now and then though, so the rosters will slowly take shape this summer.
“When I was named manager, the first guy I thought of was No. 99. I wanted him to be the captain. I felt like he’s deserving of it,” DeRosa told Bryan Hoch. “… From a position player standpoint, I could probably fill out five lineups with guys that want to do it.”
The 2026 WBC begins March 5th and the Championship Game will be played March 17th in Miami. Judge and the rest of Team USA will be in a pool with Brazil, Great Britain, Italy, and Mexico. They will begin their leg of the tournament in Houston in the stadium formerly known as Minute Maid Park (it’s Daikin Park now). Here are the WBC pools and schedule (full-size image):
Japan ran the table in 2023. Seven games, seven wins, 56 runs scored, 18 runs allowed. Shohei Ohtani struck out Trout to clinch the title, which I’m sure you remember. It was the most thrilling baseball moment of 2023, MLB regular season and postseason included. I greatly enjoy the WBC and I’m excited to watch Judge play next spring. I wonder which of his Yankees’ teammates he’ll get to play against.
“You have a bunch of guys that compete against each other all year long, and now you bring us all together, it’s going to be something special,” Judge told Hoch about the WBC. “We play this game for such a small amount of time, so to get an opportunity like this, I think guys really gravitate toward it.”
Mailbag Questions of the Week
Stephen asks: Given the sparsity of upcoming impact free agents you wrote about, what about international imports? Munetaka Murakami seems the best fit for the Yankees to address 1B long-term. How do you think he stacks up and is there anyone else to keep an eye on?
Murakami is worth a deeper non-mailbag dive once we get closer to the offseason. He will be posted after this season and he turned 25 in February, so he’s no longer subject to the international bonus pools. Murakami will be free to sign a massive contract like Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He won’t be limited to a minor league contract like Roki Sasaki. The timing of his posting isn’t an accident.
In 2022, Murakami hit .318/.458/.710 (225 wRC+) with 56 home runs, the NPB record for a player born in Japan. He slipped to .256/.375/.500 (153 wRC+) in 2023 and .244/.379/.472 (156 wRC+) in 2022. Last season Murakami posted a 29.5 K% in a league where the average is 18.8 K%, so that ain’t great. Here’s part of Eric Longenhagen’s updated scouting report:
He is still swinging underneath a ton of fastballs up and away from him, and struggles significantly with velo. He managed to hit just .154 against fastballs 93 mph and above in 2024. He is going to end up with a below-average MLB hit tool, and his whiff issues are profound enough that he has non-zero bust risk despite his success in NPB … Titanic pole-to-pole power remains Murakami's carrying tool. He turns on mistakes that he sends into pull-side orbit while also spraying pitches on the outer half into the left field bleachers. There is a combination of strength, athletic explosion, and flashes of lower half flexibility here that few MLB hitters wield, and Murakami's pop stands out even when comparing him to MLB's most fearsome power hitters. He has a terrific ability to recognize breaking balls and offspeed stuff, and will often keep his weight back to hit secondary pitches the opposite way and use his natural strength to turn defensive swings into doubles. He has 40-homer raw power, though he'll probably hit fewer than that because of infrequent contact …. Murakami improved as a third baseman in 2024 and now projects to stay at that position, albeit as a below-average defender. His grade slides for the second consecutive year as he looks more like a five-hole hitting 3B/DH.
I haven’t spoken to anyone who thinks Murakami will stay at third base more than another year or two, not that I am the most well-connected person. That elevated strikeout rate and trouble with heaters is worrisome. MLB teams are much better equipped to challenge you with velocity than NPB teams. Add in a lack of defensive value, and you’re talking about a potential one-tool player.
That one tool is massive power, which always gets dudes paid. I’m just not sure how much teams will be willing to pay for it. There’s the strikeout and velocity issues, plus there will be an adjustment period to a new league, a new culture, the whole nine. Murakami is 6-for-12 with a homer in the early going this year. A monster year along the lines of 2022 would serve him well heading into free agency. With any luck, Ben Rice will prove to be the real deal and the Yankees have their long-term solution at first base.
Paul asks: Small sample sizes are getting bigger every day. So, like, is Ben Rice for real?
Signs point to this being real. Maybe not .317/.414/.650 (206 wRC+) forever real, but real enough to be an impact hitter against righties. Rice is crushing the ball, he swings at the right pitches, and he’s making a lot of contact when he does swing. The numbers:
Average EV: 95.0 mph (MLB average: 89.4 mph)
90th percentile EV: 108.2 mph (MLB average: 105.1 mph)
Pulled fly ball rate: 15.0% (MLB average: 9.1%)
Chase rate: 21.3% (MLB average: 28.4%)
In-zone contact rate: 85.9% (MLB average: 84.8%)
Swinging strike rate: 9.8% (MLB average: 11.1%)
There are two drawbacks here. One, Rice is not doing much against lefties. Entering Thursday, he was hitting .182/.217/.455 (90 wRC+) against lefties with a 34.8 K% this year, and he never hit lefties much in the minors either. There’s a chance Rice, who was hitting .333/.476/.727 (241 wRC+) against righties even before Thursday's four-hit night, is a platoon bat long-term. A really good heavy-side-of-the-platoon bat, but still a platoon bat.
And two, Rice does all his damage on the inner-half of the plate. Leave a pitch middle-in, and Rice will hammer it. Pitch him away though, and he can get him out. Here are two heat maps:
Rice can get the bat on the ball in all parts of the strike zone and that’s good. It’s not like he flails helplessly at anything soft and away, but his best contact comes middle-in. The contact he makes on the outer half tends to be weak and unproductive. Perhaps Rice can close this hole on the outer half. That would be swell. Until he does, lefties and pitches anywhere but on the inner half are a bit of a weakness.
The various projection systems peg Rice as a true talent .230/.320/.450-ish hitter and I think he can be better than that, particularly if the Yankees start platooning him (with a healthy Giancarlo Stanton?). I’m in on Rice. He’ll level off eventually, there are very few legit 206 (!) wRC+ hitters in this game, but he can bang and he should always be in the lineup against righties.
Anonymous asks: I think I already know the answer to this, but is there any chance Rice can play 3b?
That feels like a lot to ask. Ben Rice is not the twitchiest of athletes, and the scouting report on him as a catcher said he has a weak arm. A big lumbering-ish guy with a weak arm is a poor fit for the hot corner. Asking Rice to learn the position on the fly in the middle of the season feels like you’re setting him up to fail. Jazz Chisholm Jr. picked up third base on the fly last year, though he came up through the minors as a shortstop, and had infield experience. The left side of the infield was not new to him. You’d have to give Rice an offseason and Spring Training to work on it. He's been awesome this year. How the pieces all fit once Giancarlo Stanton returns is something to worry about when Stanton is ready to return, and not a moment sooner. Maybe Rice can hack it at third base and will surprise me. I think he might be in over his head there. His best position is and always will be the batter’s box.
Jon asks: From what I can tell, the two best (non-pitching) candidates the Yankees could acquire at the deadline would be Carlos Correa or Austin Riley. Pretend both are available in a couple months. Considering everything (production, age, contract, prospect cost to acquire), who is the more ideal target?
Riley, for sure. He’s 2.5 years younger, $10M a year cheaper, and has a much cleaner injury history. Riley’s only career injured list stint came last year when got hit by a pitch that broke his hand. Correa has plantar fasciitis in both feet (ouch) and has the ankle stuff that scuttled his deals with the Mets and Giants. Three-year ZiPS projections have Correa as a +9.3 WAR player from 2025-27. Riley’s at +11.5 WAR.
I don’t think there’s any chance Riley will be available at the deadline. The Braves are a not great but not disastrous 5-6 since their 0-7 start, Spencer Strider returned Wednesday, and Ronald Acuña will be back in a few weeks. Even if things go sideways this summer, their core is locked up affordably for another few years. The Braves could justify running it back next season with only minor tweaks to the roster. Riley’s not going anywhere.
The Twins, meanwhile, are 7-12 this year after going 12-27 in their final 39 games last year. Monday night was not only the lowest attendance in Target Field history, it was their lowest attendance since April 30, 2002, at the Metrodome (Target Field opened in 2010). Things are going poorly right now, so yeah, I could see the Twins making Correa available. I bet they’d love to unload the $128M they owe him through 2028.
I seriously doubt the Yankees will pursue Correa, but should they? He’s off to a terrible start this year (39 wRC+), though he hit .310/.388/.517 (155 wRC+) and was a +3.7 WAR player in 86 games around injury last year. Where else are the Yankees getting an infielder who can do that? Correa was going to play third base for the Mets before that deal fell through. The Yankees could plug him right in at the hot corner.
The Twins lost their broadcast deal with Bally Sports and are taking a beating in television revenue. The Pohlad family is trying to sell the team, but potential buyers keep walking away. Lowering payroll would make the team more appealing. The fewer long-term commitments, the better. Are they so desperate to dump Correa that they’d be willing to give up, say, Pablo López in the trade too? Hmmm. To answer the question though, it’s Riley over Correa, no doubt about it.
Several asked: Are you surprised David Robertson is still unsigned?
Bob Nightengale says Robertson set a $10M price tag in the offseason, so knowing that, no, I can’t say I’m surprised he’s still unsigned. As good as he was last year, he’s a 40-year-old reliever. That is not the kinda player teams drop eight figures on these days. I also wonder if Robertson is being picky and is just not willing to play for certain teams. He’s accomplished just about everything a player could hope to accomplish in this game. Won a World Series ring, made a ton of money, etc. Why go through the grind with a projected Wild Card bubble team just because they’ll meet your asking price? It might be a “if the money’s there and I’ll have a chance to win, I’ll do it, otherwise I’m staying home” thing. I figured Robertson would get signed over the winter because he’s still good and teams always need pitching, but if he’s really asking for $10M, then I get why he’s still out there.
Mike asks: Over and over again we hear announcers both say and joke about themselves saying ‘fast for a catcher.’ It got me thinking, are catchers the slowest position? As a group, are first basemen slower? Are centerfielders fastest? Shortstops? And finally, is Wells fast for a catcher?
Before I pulled the numbers, I expected catchers to be the slowest players and center fielders to be the fastest. Here’s what average sprint speed by position says (2024-25 numbers to get a bigger sample):
1. Center field: 28.6 ft/s
2. Second base: 28.0 ft/s
3. Right field: 28.0 ft/s
4. Shortstop: 27.7 ft/s
5. Left field: 27.7 ft/s
6. Third base: 27.3 ft/s
7. First base: 26.4 ft/s
8. Designated hitter: 26.4 ft/s
9. Catcher: 25.9 ft/s
Yes, catchers are collectively the slowest players and center fielders the fastest. That passes the sniff test. Catchers tend to be big dudes and their legs take a beating during the season while center fielders need to be speedy because they have so much ground to cover. The fastest catcher (J.T. Realmuto) would be tied for the 23rd fastest center fielder.
Set the minimum to 100 baserunning opportunities to weed out the backups, and Wells ranks 13th among catchers with a 26.6 ft/s sprint speed. So yes, he’s fast for a catcher, though not a burner. Realmuto is the fastest catcher at 28.5 ft/s, which is legit fast. The slowest catcher is 35-year-old Jacob Stallings (23.9 ft/s). The second slowest is old friend Jose Trevino (24.4 ft/s). Yeah, that tracks.
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Comments
MikeD
That started during and after his monster 2022 season. Add in his defensive issues, and the shine is off the Murakami bloom. It's possible, even likely, MLB teams believe they can adjust his swing path, but expectations should be lowered.
MikeM
I’m really not sure why people think Murakami is the solve the Yankees have been looking for. He reeks of a Joey Gallo type guy that I’m glad they’ve seemed to move on from.
chuangeUp
'How could the Yankees not sign Carlos Correa!' became 'Carlos Correa's contract is so underwater the Twins should gift us Pablo López' in no time.
