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April 25th, 2025: Judge, Chisholm, Volpe, Bellinger, Rice, Williams, Mailbag
🕑 Added 2025-04-25 10:00:14 +0000 UTCReminder: Annual memberships are now open. Go to Patreon settings > Memberships > View Details, then change “billing frequency” to annual if you prefer to pay for a year upfront rather than get charged each month. It makes no difference on my end. Whatever’s best for you. Let’s get to today’s post.
1. Weekday thoughts. The Yankees went 8-5 during the just completed 13 days in 13 games stretch. It was much closer to being 10-3 than, say, 6-7 too. Not bad. Not bad at all. Stop leaving so many runners on base, get more length from the starters, do a better job closing out games, profit. Three straight series against AL East rivals await. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.
Aaron Judge is just showing off now
With a 62-home run season and a 700/700 season under his belt, Aaron Judge now has his sights set on hitting .400, apparently. Judge went 7-for-12 (.583) in Cleveland and is hitting .415/.513/.734 (258 wRC+) overall. He leads baseball in the slash line categories and it’s not particularly close either. Here are the numbers among the 167 qualified hitters heading into Thursday’s action:
AVG: .415 (2nd best: Paul Goldschmidt (!) at .383)
OBP: .514 (2nd best: Marcell Ozuna at .500)
SLG: .734 (2nd best: Corbin Carroll at .693)
wRC+: 258 (2nd best: Jonathan Aranda at 217)
"Right now, he's like Tony Gwynn. Then next week, he'll probably be like Hank Aaron,” Carlos Rodón told Max Goodman after Wednesday’s game.
Judge’s .415 AVG is fifth best through 25 games in franchise history and the best since Paul O’Neill hit .444 through 25 games in 1995. The funny thing is Judge’s exit velocity, hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and all that are down slightly from the last few years (but still super elite), yet he’s still underperforming his expected SLG. He’s slugging .734 with a .758 xSLG. Absurd.
Judge is also running a career low 20.4 K%. After being a 30 K% guy earlier in his career, he had a 25.5 K% from 2021-24. Now it’s down to 20%, which is better than the league average (22.4%). The best and most thunderous hitter in the sport is putting more balls in play than ever. Will Judge run a .500 BABIP (lol) all year? No, of course not, but this is the recipe (low K% + elite exit velocity) for like a .380 BABIP though.
Now, as good as Judge has been, I have two nitpicks. First, he’s hit one home run in the last 18 games. He was incredible in those 18 games (.431/.538/.569), it's not like he's struggled, but the Yankees do need their captain to hit the ball out of the park. They've scored more than four runs only four times in their last 17 games. They’ve had a difficult time breaking games open because Judge is hitting singles, not dingers.
To be fair, Judge lost a home run to what appeared to be an incorrect foul call in Tampa, and he also hit a ball off the very top of the high wall in center field Wednesday (video). This is about as far as you can hit a ball at Progressive Field without it being a home run:
Judge had to settle for his sixth career triple on a ball Statcast says it would've been a homer at every park except Progressive Field and Chase Field. Please don’t take this as a complaint. Judge is awesome. I’m just pointing out that he’s hit one home run in 18 games, and when he does that, it limits the offense’s ceiling. The best version of the Yankees is that one that has Judge mashing taters on the regular.
(Other than a slightly elevated ground ball rate, there’s nothing to worry about with Judge’s recent lack of homers. Just a little early season weirdness. He’s fully capable of hitting 12 homers in the next 15 games or something ridiculous like that.)
And second, Judge reached base 16 times on the seven-game road trip and scored only three runs. He’s reached base 42 times on non-homers in the last 18 games and scored only 10 runs. Judge is getting on base so much (so much!) and no one is driving him in. It’s not a mystery why, right? Almost everyone who hits directly behind Judge in the lineup has been struggling. In no particular order:
Paul Goldschmidt: His .383/.433/.489 (171 wRC+) line is way better than I think anyone expected, even in the relatively small sample of 25 games. At the same time, his two doubles Wednesday were his first extra-base hits in eight games, and he hasn’t hit a home run since the second game of the season. His 23-game homer drought is the sixth longest of his career and a weekend away from being fourth longest. Goldschmidt has been so good overall. He’s also been a singles merchant early on and singles help only so much.
Austin Wells: Wells is back where he was last April. Making good contact with a very low ground ball rate (30.2%), but he’s hitting so many balls to left field, including Wednesday’s double (video). Wells is at his best when he’s pulling the ball to right field. A graph is worth a thousand blog posts:
Wells is a good exit velocity guy, not an elite one, and that means many of the balls he hits in the air to left field are moderately deep and catchable, not over the left fielder’s head (or hit softly enough to land in front of the left fielder). We all love those nice piece of hitting opposite field singles, but Wells has to get back to pulling the ball. That’s when he’s at his best. His at-bats have mostly been good. The batted ball direction needs work.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.: Of all the struggling Yankees, Jazz is the one I’m least worried about, which does not mean his empty at-bats don’t annoy me. He’s whiffing too much (30.9 K% and 14.2% swinging strikes), though he does that now and then. Chisholm is running career best walk (11.2%) and chase (21.7%) rates, he’s squaring it up pretty well (16.9% barrel rate), and he’s not beating the ball into the ground (32.8 GB%). The under-the-hood indicators are solid. The results haven’t been there lately, but Chisholm is doing things he needs to do. The AVG and OBP may never pop off the page, but the SLG should be there when it’s all said and done.
Anthony Volpe: Volpe went 4-for-27 (.148) with 11 strikeouts on the road trip and is 7-for-54 (.130) with 22 strikeouts in his last 16 games. This is entirely my fault. I made the mistake of saying nice things about him last week. I have to stick to trashing players, I guess. You stink, Tony. You’re ugly and your mom dresses you funny. There. Maybe that’ll work.
For real though, Volpe is LAWST right now, and he has no business hitting near the middle of the order (not that the Yankees are overstuffed with middle of the lineup options). The downside to dropping Volpe to ninth is that it creates a nice big lane for a lefty reliever behind Goldschmidt. Does that really matter though? Volpe’s not deterring anyone from going to a lefty. Here again is the plate appearances against lefty relievers leaderboard:
1. Yankees: 159
2. Cubs: 142 (played one more game than the Yankees)
3. Tigers: 127
4. Phillies: 122
5. Braves: 111
If the Yankees won’t drop Volpe in the lineup, maybe give him more days off? He’s played every inning of every game this season. He rarely came out of the lineup the last two years. Maybe more time off can get him going at the plate. It could be that the best version of Volpe is a four out of every five games player. It’s not like the Yankees will lose anything defensively if they put Oswald Peraza at short. Less could be more with Volpe.
Cody Bellinger: Well, at least Bellinger has a knack for great game-ending catches. He had the sweep-clincher against the Royals last week and saved Luke Weaver’s bacon with an over the shoulder basket catch Wednesday (video). Bellinger is at +2 DRS and +1 OAA four weeks into the season, for what it’s worth. He’s contributing nicely in the field and that was the idea. Get an all-around contributor.
The hope was Bellinger would replace what, 75% of Juan Soto’s production? Instead he’s barely replaced 75% of Alex Verdugo’s production. Bellinger’s hitting .177/.236/.291 (49 wRC+) with very bad underlying markers. The exit velocity is actually strong. Bellinger’s already hit a ball 110 mph this season, something he did not do once from 2021-24. The rest of this though, yikes:
Strikeout rate: 15.6% in 2024 to 23.6% in 2025
Swinging strike rate: 10.0% to 13.3%
Pull rate: 42.6% to 36.1%
Pulled air rate: 21.8% to 14.8%
Infield pop ups: 8.5% to 13.8%
Bellinger is making less contact in general, and the contact he does make hasn’t been productive. He’s not pulling the ball in the air nearly as much as in the past (his career low pulled air rate prior to 2025 was 19.9% in 2020) and he’s hitting a lot of popups, which are easy outs and BABIP killers. Bellinger has earned his poor slash line. He’s simply not driving the baseball. It’s a Problem.
With the way Bellinger is hitting (i.e. not hitting), the Yankees really should move him down the lineup, and get someone else directly behind Judge. Trent Grisham and Ben Rice are the best options. Hit one leadoff and the other third, with Judge second and Goldschmidt fourth. Judge has been so good this year but he hasn’t scoring many runs lately because the guys behind him are either hitting singles or not hitting at all. More homers from Judge and more production from the guys behind him, please and thank you.
Rice is going oppo
I guess Rice’s elbow is okay. He returned to the starting lineup Tuesday and opened the game with a first pitch homer over the high wall in left field (video). It’s his second career leadoff home run (he had one in the three-homer game last year) and he’s already the fourth different Yankee with a leadoff home run this season. Only twice in franchise history have the Yankees had four players hit a leadoff homer:
2025: Goldschmidt, Rice, Wells, Trent Grisham
1995: Wade Boggs, Tony Fernandez, Luis Polonia, Bernie Williams
The Yankees still have 137 games remaining! They should bat Judge leadoff until they break that record. Then put Giancarlo Stanton in the leadoff spot when he returns so he can hit a leadoff homer. Then Jazz, then Volpe. Just keep cycling guys through the leadoff spot and see how many different leadoff home run hitters they can run into this season. This is important stuff here.
(I have no idea what the MLB record is for the most unique leadoff home run hitters in a season is. That one is beyond my search capabilities.)
Rice is hitting .288/.402/.603 (191 wRC+) with six homers in the early going. He’s been a 1-for-1 replacement for Soto, more or less. And lately, Rice has been using the opposite field, which is something Soto does so well. Rice hit the leadoff homer to left Tuesday and he’s had a bunch of hard-hit balls to left field in general the last few games. Here’s another graph:
Good thing or bad thing? Good if it works, bad if it doesn’t, and Rice has enough hard-hit ability to make it work. He’s one click south of Judge in exit velocity, barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and all that. If we start seeing a bunch of fly balls and line drives get caught in Death Valley in left-center field in Yankee Stadium, then yes, this will be a bad thing. Tuesday’s leadoff homer was an indication that yeah, this could work for Rice. He's not longer a pull only guy.
(To be clear, Rice’s pull rate is still much higher than the MLB average. It’s gone from much higher than average to plain ol' higher than average. It’s not like Rice is serving the ball to left field constantly now.)
Why no Williams on Wednesday?
Why didn’t Devin Williams pitch the ninth inning with a four-run lead Wednesday? He was available (he began to warm up after Weaver allowed a baserunner and some hard contact) and Aaron Boone still seems to trust him in a close game (again, he warmed up once Weaver put a guy on), yet he didn’t pitch. Weaver closed it out thanks in part to Bellinger’s catch. In the end, a win is a win.
Williams has not pitched since Saturday’s meltdown in Tampa. He had three days off going into Wednesday’s game and Thursday was an off-day. It was a four-run lead and obviously Weaver was available to back Williams up in case things got hairy. That seemed like the perfect “get our struggling closer work because we need him to be effective” opportunity. Instead, Williams did not pitch.
If Boone went to Weaver because he just wanted to close the game out with minimal headaches and avoid the sweep, okay, I get it, but the Yankees do have to get Williams on track, and that won’t happen sitting in the bullpen. Now he will go at least five days between appearances and I guess the plan is to use him in a game separated by fewer than four runs? Williams is still the closer. He was warming up behind Weaver.
Boone did this with Aroldis Chapman and Clay Holmes all the time too. They would go 5-6 days between appearances even though everyone and their mother knew they struggled to throw strikes when they went too long without pitching. I don’t know if Williams is like that, but considering he’s been a 12 BB% guy throughout his career, I reckon he might be. Is Boone putting Williams in the best position to succeed?
Williams makes me nervous too, I get it, but avoiding him will not solve anything, and neither will letting him go 5-6 days between appearances. He’s at the point now where he needs to pitch Friday just to get some work. Hopefully the Yankees will build a nice big lead and have some breathing room. If it’s a close game though, we’ll just have to hope Williams has no issues pitching with this much rest.
YoGo is YoGone (and Matzek arrives)
Yoendrys Gómez, my No. 25 prospect entering 2025, threw 10 innings for the Yankees this season, and honestly, that’s 10 more than I expected him to throw. Gómez is out of options and seemed like a strong candidate to get waived at the end of Spring Training. Instead, he had a good spring, the Yankees got hit hard by pitching injuries, and Gómez made the Opening Day roster as a low leverage long man.
Three of those 10 innings came Monday. The next day Gómez was DFAed and Tyler Matzek was added to the active roster. Those 10 innings were eventful: 10 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 9 BB, 5 K, plus one walk-off homer. Four of the nine walks came in the rain against the Giants two weeks ago, before Boone successfully lobbied for the tarp. Even without that game, it’s more walks than strikeouts.
Gómez remains in DFA limbo and I hope he slips through waivers and goes to Triple-A as a non-40-man roster player, but I dunno. Look at some of the guys the Marlins, Rockies, and White Sox are running out there these days. Why wouldn’t one of those teams roll the dice on Gómez? The Yankees need all the pitching depth they can get. I hope YoGo goes to Scranton. Not sure it’ll happen though.
As for Matzek, he probably would have made the Opening Day roster had he not pulled his oblique after his first Grapefruit League outing. He hasn’t appeared in a game yet. He hasn’t even warmed up yet, as far as I know. It will be nice to have a second matchup lefty though. Tim Hill can’t pitch every game and Ryan Yarbrough is a long man/mop up guy more than a late-inning matchup dude.
I’m not sure how effective Matzek will be, it’s been a while since he was good and healthy at the same time (2021), but the Yankees raved about him in Spring Training, and clearly they believe in him. They wouldn’t have added him to the roster otherwise. We’ll see what happens with Gómez. He’s probably a goner, though maybe he gets through waivers. An effective Matzek would be a nifty bullpen piece.
Miscellany
Will Warren had probably his best start as a big leaguer Tuesday: 5 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 5 K (video) against a Guardians lineup that included nine lefties/switch-hitters. The third time through the order got him and Mark Leiter Jr. allowed both inherited runners to score. Now Warren has to do it again next time out. He’s alternated good starts with terrible starts in the early going this year. Back-to-back good starts, please … Rodón is a hanging curveball to Jung-Hoo Lee away from three straight really good starts. He was a bit wobbly early Wednesday, then settled down in the third and dominated the rest of the way: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K (video). I hope we see this guy more often. The Yankees really need him. Rodón went into Thursday’s off-day leading the AL with 45 strikeouts (and also leading MLB with 18 walks) … Jasson Domínguez doubled off lefty Joey Cantillo on Wednesday. He has three hits against lefties this year, all doubles. His platoon splits:
vs. RHP: .313/.365/.500 (153 wRC+) in 52 PA
vs. LHP: .103/.257/.207 (45 wRC+) in 35 PA
Domínguez is only 22 and I keep saying that’s too young to give up switch-hitting, and it is, but El Marciano sure is making a compelling argument for giving up switch-hitting. It’s not just the stats. It’s the eye test too. Domínguez’s righty swings look so bad … And finally, the second annual Jorbit Vivas phantom call up is over. He sat on the bench all three games in Cleveland with Grisham on the paternity list. Vivas did the same thing in Baltimore last July, when J.D. Davis missed a few days with an illness right before the All-Star break. Vivas was sent down after Wednesday’s game and Grisham will be back tonight. Two big league call ups, six total days on the roster, zero games played for Jorbit.
Injury updates
Giancarlo Stanton (elbows, calf) took batting practice on the field for the first time Tuesday. It’s still gonna be another few weeks, Stanton doesn’t know when he’ll start a rehab assignment, but he keeps checking boxes and moving in the right direction … DJ LeMahieu (calf) started a rehab assignment with Double-A Somerset on Tuesday. He played second base (!), something he had not done in any game (rehab, Spring Training, regular season, etc.) since July 5th, 2023. LeMahieu went 3-for-3 with a homer (video) in his first rehab game and he played second base again in his second game Thursday. Huh. Wonder what that's about. Anyway, he said the plan is to play full games Saturday and Sunday. Position players get a 20-day rehab window. The latest LeMahieu can return is Monday, May 12th … And finally, another Triple-A injury of note: Brent Headrick was placed on Scranton’s 7-day injured list this week. Headrick was really good for the Yankees earlier this year (5.1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 9 K) and got a raw deal when he was sent down for a fresh arm because he was the only optionable guy in the bullpen. Hopefully it’s a minor injury. Headrick can definitely help the Yankees.
Up next
A three-game homestand against the Blue Jays, then a three-game road trip to Baltimore, then six more games at home. Not sure I can remember the last time the Yankees had a three-game homestand and a three-game road trip back-to-back (knowing my memory, it was probably last year). Here’s what’s coming up this weekend:
Friday vs. Blue Jays: RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. RHP José Berríos (7pm ET on YES, MLBN)
Saturday vs. Blue Jays: LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (1pm ET on YES, MLBN)
Sunday vs. Blue Jays: RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. RHP Chris Bassitt (1:30pm ET on YES, MLBN)
Monday at Orioles: TBA vs. TBA (6:30pm ET on YES)
(Those TBAs Monday line up to be Warren and Tomoyuki Sugano, who’s struck out nine in 28 innings. That works out to 8.0 K% and 2.9 K/9.)
The Yankees are not using Thursday’s off-day to push Carrasco’s start back. He will start the first game against the Blue Jays and the last game against the Orioles. The AL East race figures to be very close. The Yankees could have used the off-day to flip Carrasco and Fried and given Fried those starts against the Blue Jays and Orioles (both on normal rest), but nope. He’ll miss the O’s series.
I understand it’s only April and the Yankees don’t want to overwork their starters, especially with no help coming anytime soon (Luis Gil is at least six weeks away and probably longer), but the Yankees have the next three Thursdays and the following Monday off. There will be plenty of opportunities to give Fried extra rest in May. These intradivision games should be a priority. Instead, two Carrasco starts. Go pitch well and make me look stupid, Cookie.
(Devil’s Advocate: Fried will make his next two starts against the Blue Jays and Rays, two AL East rivals. Does it really matter if he starts against the Rays rather than the O’s? The Rays might be the better team given the state of Baltimore’s rotation.)
Mailbag Questions of the Week
George asks: It gets a little tiring to watch Volpe's hot streaks, then annual prolonged dry spells at the plate. Know it's unrealistic, as Lombard is two years away, but if he was traded, what's a reasonable type of player the Yanks could expect in return?
Sandeep asks: Anthony Volpe. It doesn’t seem like he’s the long term answer and he’s becoming increasingly frustrating to watch. I don’t expect the Yankees will do anything but keep him all the way to free agency, but do you see any scenario where the Yankees take a different route at shortstop?
I’m lumping these two questions together because they’re from the same vein. To start, I don’t think the Yankees are anywhere close to reducing Volpe’s playing time, let alone moving on entirely. His defense gives him a reasonably high floor. Even when he’s not hitting, he helps his team by playing good defense at a premium position.
The defense, his age, and three additional years of team control give Volpe a good deal of trade value. FanGraphs had him at No. 38 on their Trade Value series last summer, for example. I reckon Volpe would rank lower now because it’s less team control and also the bat still hasn’t taken a step forward, but cheap up-the-middle players with good defense are always in demand. There would be trade interest, for sure.
I can find very few examples of players like Volpe getting traded. Part of it is that teams love their young players and don’t want to give up on them, and part of it is position scarcity. Again, cheap up-the-middle players with good defense are always in demand, and that includes from teams that have one. They have one and want to keep him. These are the best Volpe trade reference points I can find:
Jean Segura (Diamondbacks to Mariners): Traded with six years of Mitch Haniger for five years of Ketel Marte and four years of Taijuan Walker.
Willy Adames (Rays to Brewers): Traded for 5.5 years of Drew Rasmussen.
That’s really it, and Adames and Segura were much better MLB hitters than Volpe at the time of those trades. Good young middle infielders basically never get traded after establishing themselves as big leaguers, even if they’re established as mediocre big leaguers. Would another team trade their version of Volpe, a talented but frustrating young player falling short of expectations, for Volpe? Volpe for Oneil Cruz? Volpe for Jordan Walker? I have no idea. Just spitballing names here.
The other side of this is, if the Yankees do grow tired of waiting for Volpe to put it together offensively and decide to move on, who plays short? Free agency has little to offer the next few years. The Yankees could trade Volpe for a replacement shortstop, I guess. They could put Oswald Peraza at short. They wouldn’t lose anything defensively but boy, if they grow frustrated with Volpe’s bat, imagine how they feel about Peraza.
George Lombard Jr. is a really good prospect who’s impressed early this season, but he’s at least a year away from the big leagues, maybe two, and what if he doesn’t hit the ground running? What if he needs a year or two to settle in at the highest level? Two years to reach the Bronx and two years to settle in, and we’re talking about Lombard fully launching in 2029, when Aaron Judge will be 37.
The timing of Lombard’s arrival does not align at all with whatever’s left of Judge’s and Max Fried’s prime. I’m not saying give him away. I’m just saying the Yankees shouldn’t make Lombard off-limits in trade talks for an impact player. These questions weren’t about Lombard though. They’re about Volpe, who is once again not doing much at the plate after showing promise early in the season. It’s getting tiresome.
If the Yankees decide to trade Volpe, I think he could be the top piece in a package for an impact player like, say, Sandy Alcantara or Brendan Donovan. I just do not see the Yankees reaching this point with Volpe anytime soon and maybe not ever. However much you think the Yankees love Volpe, I can tell you they actually love him more. They are all in on him. The ship will go down before they move on.
Dan asks: Trent Grisham's statcast page looks like a Ser Barristan Selmy painting (because he was a swordsman who made everything red). Is there anything to suggest that it might be sustainable and could that be part of the reason why Dominguez is being replaced by him so often?
There is more to life than Statcast sliders, but Grisham has red in all the right places:
The biggest difference between 2024 Grisham and 2025 Grisham is where he’s hitting the ball, not how he’s hitting it. He’s had above average exit velocities and barrel rates and all that the last few years. This year he’s hitting more line drives and fewer fly balls, and he’s pulling the ball more too. Here are his launch angle sweet-spot rates the last few years:
2021: 31.0%
2022: 25.5%
2023: 32.8%
2024: 25.6%
2025: 41.0% (MLB average: 33.2%)
Sweet-spot rate is the percentage of batted balls in the 8-32 degree launch angle range. That’s optimal. Below that and you’re hitting ground balls. Above that and you’re hitting fly balls that don’t leave the park, and hang up and get caught for outs. The 8-32 degree range are line drives plus fly balls that are more likely to leave the yard, and Grisham has lived in that range more consistently this year. Grisham’s also upped his rate of pulled balls in the air:
2021: 16.1%
2022: 18.7%
2023: 19.1%
2024: 20.0%
2025: 28.2% (MLB average: 16.6%)
Combine above average exit velocities with optimal launch angles and more air balls pulled toward the short porch, and you get a .320/.393/.700 (215 wRC+) line. Grisham won’t do that all season, but this isn’t a dude dinking and dunking his way to a great slash line in a handful of games. Grisham’s driving the ball, staying disciplined, making contact, and being rewarded accordingly. It’s sustainable-ish, yes.
Jonas asks: Do you think Boone is managing with more urgency this year? He seems more aggressive with high-leverage relievers and using the bench—Pablo Reyes excluded (his early defensive struggles may have sunk his chances, though it does make DJ replacing him less noticeable).
I haven’t gotten that sense. Aaron Boone used Luke Weaver for four outs three times and in the sixth inning once, which is a bit unusual, but I’m not sure that qualifies as more urgency overall. Burying Reyes isn’t out of character. We’ve seen Boone and the Yankees glue the 26th man to the bench for extended periods of time in the past. Cody Bellinger has been one of the worst hitters in baseball this year and he’s still hitting right behind Aaron Judge, killing rally after rally. I don’t think moving Bellinger down would qualify as ”showing urgency,” it’s a reasonable thing to do at this point, and Boone isn’t even doing that. Devin Williams is still the closer, no matter how much he struggles. This has felt like a typical Boone season in terms of urgency, which is a hard thing to define but you know it when you see it.
Dmitry asks: Is it just me or does Boone allow soft tossers like Hill and Wandy to pitch more, with less deference to load management than a fireballer? I recall Wandy pitched every game of a playoff series once. Is there any evidence that soft tossers are less at risk for injury? Also, how about arm slot? Are over the top pitchers like Montgomery and Karinchak more injury prone than a pure sidearmer?
The postseason is a different animal. Usage rules go out the window in October. Aaron Boone has stuck to his typical usage patterns (no three days in a row, avoid four in five days when possible, etc.) with Tim Hill in the regular season, though I do get the sense he would be open to three days in a row in the right situation with Hill (low pitch count the last two days, etc.). There has been plenty of research showing velocity correlates well to injury. The harder you throw, the higher your injury risk, and keep in mind that while an 88 mph fastball may qualify as a soft-tosser, it’s still pretty hard and an unnatural act. I haven’t seen much research about arm angles and injury risk. This says there was no correlation found. The human body was not designed to throw overhand. I’m guessing throwing underhand would reduce injuries quite a bit, but that just isn’t a thing that will happen in baseball at any level above Little League.
Sebastian asks: This may not be something you have too much insight into/or too "inside baseball" to be interesting for the mailbag, but given you've mentioned some insider connections, including with scouts inside/outside the Yankees org, I wanted to see if you had any insight into how scouting/analytical teams are structured. I've always assumed there was effectively two forms of scouting - scouting opponents for weaknesses/opportunities and scouting for acquisitions. After we heard about the Yankees over the offseason looking to "tighten the screws" on some of Fried's pitches I wanted to ask about how much overlap those two areas might be? Is modern scouting/analytics basically all one big overarching piece, with reports for players based on upcoming opponents effectively used in the same way during acquisitions, or is there more separation in these two fields, i.e. information like the opportunity to tighten Fried's pitches might not be included in an opponent report for batters going to face him. Appreciate you may not be the best placed to answer such a question, but I thank you for any insights you can provide.
I can’t tell you how other teams operate. I really have no idea. I only know so much about the Yankees too, so I apologize if this answer is boring or unsatisfactory. The Yankees have three scouting departments: amateur, international, and pro. Amateur (draft) and international (amateur free agents) are pretty self-explanatory in what they cover. The pro scouting department covers everything else. It’s advance scouting (the opponent’s weaknesses, how they might attack us, etc.), it’s scouting for players who could become available (how could we improve Max Fried?), it’s scouting your own players too. You have to know your players better than anyone else, and the Yankees have done a pretty good job the last few years of moving players at the right time (“selling high,” if you want to call it that). It is very much a collaborative effort. The departments in the front office are not walled off from each other. They all work together. The amateur scouting people work with player development to identify targets. They don’t simply draft guys and then dump them on the player development folks. The boots on the ground scouts and analytics people work together too. In the year 2025, there is no scouts vs. stats debate. Either you do both, or you’re way behind the times. The pro scouting department is the brains behind everything and under the umbrella is advance scouting, acquisitions, internal player assessments, old school scouting, new school analytics, etc. It all flows through pro scouting.
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
The Original Drew
There is a great article on fangraphs by Jay Jaffe that covers exactly that.
DZB
I'm too lazy to send a question by email, but in case Mike decides to read the comments - I'd be very interested in seeing a comparison of numbers for where Judge is at the end of April this season versus last season (and how his stats through end of April this season compare to his post April excellence last season)
Mike Farley
Yes, please. Figure it out in middle relief, up big or down big.
Brian Cariddi
It’s too bad Williams had to come in last night. Hopefully Boone moves him into a middle reliever role immediately.
