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Thoughts before Opening Day 2025
🕑 Added 2025-03-27 17:06:08 +0000 UTC
Opening Day is here and the Yankees will host the Brewers at Yankee Stadium this afternoon (3pm ET on ESPN). The Yankees and Brewers were AL East rivals many moons ago. The Brewers moved to the AL Central in 1994 and then the NL Central when the Diamondbacks and (Devil) Rays arrived in 1998. This will be the first Yankees vs. Brewers Opening Day matchup since 1979 (box score).
"The night before, the eve of, just all that's gone into this all winter, all spring, getting guys ready to go. Today's the start of that," Aaron Boone said Thursday. "There's excitement. There's some anxiety that comes with that. But we're ready to roll and get to start finding out how good we are."
It’s a beautiful day in the Bronx. Sunny without a cloud in the sky, but also chilly and windy. Bring a coat if you’re coming to the game. Andy Pettitte will throw out the ceremonial first pitch (couldn't get new Hall of Famer CC Sabathia with the Brewers in town?) and the Yankees will also have a moment of silence for Miller Gardner, Brett’s son, who passed away tragically at age 14 last weekend. Here now a few notes and a few thoughts before the new season gets underway.
1. Opening Day roster announced. The Yankees announced their 26-man Opening Day roster earlier this morning and there were no last minute additions. The Ryan Yarbrough signing Monday was the last one. The Yankees were unable to find a righty bat before Opening Day. Maybe next year they’ll start the search in November. ANYWAY, here are the 26 players on the Opening Day active roster:
That roster does not look very much like the roster that played in the World Series last year! I count only 12 holdovers from the World Series roster: Cabrera, Chisholm, Domínguez, Grisham, Hill, Judge, Leiter, Rodón, Stroman, Volpe, Weaver, and Wells. Several other players on last year’s World Series roster would have been on this year’s Opening Day roster, but, you know, injuries.
The injured list is lengthy. Cole (elbow), Gil (lat), and Cousins (elbow) are on the 60-day injured list. LeMahieu (calf) and Stanton (elbows, calf) are on the 10-day injured list. Beeter (shoulder), Brubaker (ribs), Effross (hamstring), Hamilton (infection), Loáisiga (elbow), and Schmidt (shoulder) are on the 15-day injured list. That’s 11 players on the Major League injured list. Almost half an active roster. Sheesh.
Cole and Gil were put on the 60-day injured list last weekend to clear 40-man roster space for Carrasco and Yarbrough. Cousins was put on the 60-day injured list Thursday to open a 40-man spot for Reyes, who figures to get plenty of at-bats against lefties out of the gate. Peraza made the roster as well. I’m not entirely sure what his role will be. He will have to hit at least a little bit to get playing time.
The final bullpen spot went to Headrick, not Yerry De Los Santos, who was optioned to Triple-A. I guess tracking Headrick’s velocity spike this spring wasn’t pointless after all, eh? The Yankees have three lefties (Headrick, Hill, Yarbrough) and three multi-inning types (Gómez, Headrick, Yarbrough) in the bullpen to start the season. Given the back of the rotation and the fact the starters aren’t fully stretched out just yet, the Yankees are gonna need those three long guys.
Keep in mind the roster is ever-changing and it will look very, very different at the end of the season. Last year the Yankees made their first roster move three days into the season (Beeter sent down for a fresh arm). The next roster move was two days after that (Cousins trade/call up), and the next three days after that (Dennis Santana called up). The Opening Day roster is very much temporary.
2. Opening Day thoughts on the 2025 Yankees. The Yankees went to the World Series last year and had an active offseason, yet here I find myself on Opening Day, tempering my excitement and expectations. That isn’t to say I think the Yankees will be bad this year. I think they’re a postseason team. There are three Wild Card spots now and the American League is as watered down as either league has been in some time.
It’s just that the Yankees lost Juan Soto, then they lost Gerrit Cole for the season and Luis Gil, Giancarlo Stanton, and a host of others for who knows how long. A meaningful pitch has yet to be thrown and the Yankees have already broken the “use Carlos Carrasco in case of emergency” glass. They also lost Juan Soto. Did I mention that? The depth chart at catcher, second base, shortstop, third base, and right field is:
1. Starter
2. Hope the starter doesn’t get hurt
Depth wins divisions and stars win championships, and the 2025 Yankees are short on both. Some of that is due to injuries and some of it is by design. I mean, this is the best you could come up with at third base? Really? How is Pablo Reyes your projected third best hitter against lefties? This is an annual thing now. Something that was a known issue going into the offseason is not addressed, and there’s a hole on the Opening Day roster.
Add a deluge of injuries on top of that and you go from division title contender to Wild Card bubble really quick. My concern is not so much that the Yankees will be bad, it’s that they’ll be boring. I can deal with bad. Bad years happen. But boring? Boring teams are the worst. I need baseball to be fun. I don’t want to spend the summer feeling like the offense pushing across a fourth run is a major breakthrough. Soto is an entertainer as much as he is a great hitter. I’ll miss him dearly.
That all said, I can see the vision. Look at the Opening Day lineup:
1. C Austin Wells
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. CF Cody Bellinger
4. 1B Paul Goldschmidt
5. 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr.
6. LF Jasson Domínguez
7. SS Anthony Volpe
8. DH Ben Rice
9. 3B Oswaldo Cabrera
There’s one free agent (Goldschmidt), one trade (Chisholm), and one trade that was so cheap it might as well have been a free agent (Bellinger). Then there’s three first round picks (Judge, Volpe, Wells), a high profile international signing (Domínguez), and player development success stories in a 12th round pick (Rice) and a low profile international signing (Cabrera). Nine lineup spots, six homegrown players.
Now, the Yankees have not earned the benefit of the doubt with homegrown hitters the last few years, but that doesn’t mean you stop trying with them. The Yankees no longer invest significant dollars into position players. They tried to re-sign Soto, they offered him more than I honestly thought they would, but trying doesn’t count. Either you get the player or you don’t, and the Yankees did not get Soto.
The fact of the matter is the Yankees have not signed a free agent position player away from another team with a multi-year contract since the first time they signed DJ LeMahieu. They spent big to re-sign LeMahieu and Judge, and tried to do the same with Soto, but you have to go back six years for the last time they signed a hitter away from another team on anything more than a low risk one-year deal.
If you take the band-aid approach to building your lineup, fine, but it limits your market and your upside, and your hitter development must be on point to create the foundation. It hasn’t been the last few years. Wells is the best hitter (talking offense only here) to come out of the system since Gleyber Torres seven years ago, and he had two great months and four bad to meh months last season. The Yankees must must must get more out of their young hitters.
They’re banking on their young hitters giving them more this year – again, look at that lineup! – and that’s kinda scary given their recent issues with young hitters, but it’s also exciting too. You can dream on Wells continuing to take steps toward being one of the best catchers in the game. Dream on Domínguez and his All-Star upside, on Rice’s hard-hit ability, on Volpe’s postseason. You can dream on a lot of things.
Will it work? Beats me. We’re going to find out this summer. This isn’t the sad sack 2014 Yankees, where the youngest player in the Opening Day lineup was 30-year-old Brett Gardner. When you give talented young players a chance, they can surprise you, and the Yankees are going as close to all-in on young players as they have at any point since 2017. I’m skeptical, I admit it. I’m also willing to see this through. I can get on board with rooting for young guys to make the leap.
I’m bullish on Bellinger and I'm very much looking forward to a full season of Chisholm, both production-wise and vibe-wise. Max Fried is a difference-making starter. I’m high on Garrett Crochet, though you can easily argue the Yankees have the best starter in the AL East even with Cole hurt. I trust the Yankees to figure out their pitching. That doesn’t mean it will be easy or that there won’t be hiccups along the way. I trust them to figure it out over the long haul. The hitting? Eh, I’m less convinced there.
I'm gonna plant my flag and say the Yankees will finish 87-75, which should be enough to get a Wild Card spot. They’ve lost two irreplaceable players in Cole and Soto and don’t have much depth. The Yankees do still have Aaron Judge though, and he’s one of the very few players who can drag an 82-win roster into the 90-win range and a postseason berth by himself. Judge covers up a lot of flaws. A LOT.
If Judge gets hurt, then that’s it. The jig is up. The Yankees can’t survive that the same way the Guardians can’t survive a José Ramírez injury and the Royals can’t survive a Bobby Witt Jr. injury. A team with a $307M payroll should have more depth, absolutely, but the Yankees don’t. That is the reality. Even after losing Cole and Soto, the Yankees are good enough to qualify for the postseason. They just have a razor thin margin now.
3. The last remaining player who played across the street. This is the 17th season of the not-so-new Yankee Stadium and there is only one player on a 2025 Opening Day roster (active or injured list) who played across the street at the old Yankee Stadium. It’s kinda obvious who it is when you think about how long this player has had to have been playing. Any guesses? I’ll wait.
…
…
…
It’s Justin Verlander (duh). Four players appeared in an MLB game last season who also played in the old Yankee Stadium: Verlander, Johnny Cueto, Rich Hill, and David Robertson. Only Verlander is signed now, though we can’t rule out the other three signing midseason and resurfacing at some point, like Cueto and Hill did last year. Cueto pitched a full season of winter ball. He’s ready to go if someone wants him.
I hoped Robertson would be the last active player who played in the old Yankee Stadium. It just feels right that it should be a Yankee, though I guess a Hall of Famer is a decent consolation prize. Verlander turned 42 last month and says he wants to pitch until he’s 45 and get to 300 wins (he’s at 262). We’ll see how it goes for him. For now, we’re down to one active player who played in the House that Ruth Built.
4. One thought on the other 29 teams. Opening Day gave me the itch to touch on the other 29 teams, so let’s do that now. Here’s a really quick take on the other teams in the league, listed alphabetically.
Angels: I hope Mike Trout stays healthy and has one more MIKE TROUT season in him. If, like, 14 different things go right, the Angels could contend for a Wild Card spot. Otherwise it’s a pretty boring, low upside roster surrounding the decline phase of the generation’s greatest player.
Astros: They were an 88-win team with a $244M payroll in 2024. Feels like they made a bunch of moves over the winter to become an 86-win team with a $218M payroll in 2025. The AL is so mediocre overall that it wouldn’t completely shock me if things come together and they somehow finish with the league’s best record.
Athletics: Sneaky fun team. They won’t be good, but they have fun players (Lawrence Butler, Mason Miller, Brent Rooker, etc.). Also, going by “Athletics” and not “Sacramento Athletics” is weak. I know they’re only going to play 3-4 years in Sacramento, but show the city and their fans some respect.
Blue Jays: Their offseason was very Angels-y, wasn’t it? Went after the big names, got none of them, then spent top of the market dollars on second tier players (Andrés Giménez, Anthony Santander, etc.), and signed a reliever after two teams flunked his physical (Jeff Hoffman). Improved, but still meh.
Braves: I doubt Chris Sale and Reynaldo López combine to throw 313.1 innings of 2.21 ERA (2.45 FIP) ball again, but hoo boy did Spencer Strider look good with his new UCL this spring. They’re the second best team in baseball if the pitching holds up, Ronald Acuña returns soon, and Matt Olson bounces back. That's not a small number of ifs.
Brewers: They’re the NL Rays. Smartest team in the league, every move gets praised, they win more games than projected every year, then they immediately lose in the postseason to a team that operates similarly, only with more money. What a frustrating existence that must be.
Cardinals: Weird team. POBO John Mozeliak said they’re in a “reset” in October, then they did nothing over the winter. And yet, with positive RISP regression (.229/.303/.343 in 2024), they could compete for a postseason berth this year. Maybe even a division title. They neither came nor went in the offseason.
Cubs: Even when they make a big move (Kyle Tucker), they scale back. The Cubs salary dumped Cody Bellinger on the Yankees and are set to open 2025 with a $195M payroll. It was $228M last year. They act like the smallest big market team in the sport even though that division is very winnable.
Diamondbacks: They went to the World Series in 2023, then won five more games in 2024, and missed the postseason. Baseball can be stupid like that sometimes. I think they need one more lockdown reliever, otherwise this is a really good roster and a fun team with a lot of speed/baserunning craziness.
Dodgers: This is the best roster a defending champion has fielded since when, the 2018 Astros? Maybe not since the late-1990s/early-2000s Yankees. They’re more likely to not win the World Series than they are to win it, that’s just the way the game works, but they are really, really good. So good it’s obnoxious.
Giants: They’ve won between 77-81 games in four of the last five 162-game seasons (and played at a 78-win pace in 2020). They seem destined to be in that range again this year. New POBO Buster Posey must improve their player development. Signing the Willy Adameses of the world isn’t how you beat the Dodgers.
Guardians: Last year’s 92-win team was an 85-win roster propped up by the best bullpen ever (by WPA). They could have the best bullpen in baseball again this year and still lose 3-4 wins off the top. I don’t get swapping Josh Naylor’s bat for Carlos Santana’s glove when you have a so-so offense, but will it even matter in the AL Central?
Mariners: The offense needed a big bat and got Donovan Solano. The Mariners have one of the best rotations in baseball, maybe the best, and for another year they will live and die with it. The cracks are already starting to form with George Kirby starting the season on the shelf with a shoulder issue.
Marlins: When the most interesting thing about a team going into the season is when and where they will trade their best player, it ain’t good. They’re basically daring the MLBPA to file a grievance over their lack of spending too. The perpetual rebuild continues.
Mets: The back half of the lineup thins out quickly and they don’t have anywhere near the horses in their rotation that the Braves and Phillies do. Why give Juan Soto that contract and then surround him with Griffin Canning and Frankie Montas? Like a lot of teams, the Mets could’ve done more this winter.
Nationals: Their top young players are in the show (CJ Abrams, Dylan Crews, MacKenzie Gore, James Wood, etc.), yet ownership said they’re not ready to spend. Second generation owners are such weenies. None of them spend close to the franchise’s capacity (AHEM). The perpetual rebuild continues.
Orioles: Like everyone else, I think they should’ve done more to reinforce the rotation. Still a really good team though, one with a ton of offensive upside. The Mid-Atlantic is Ground Zero for the “tank, get prospects to the big leagues, don't spend to supplement the young core” half-in ownership class.
Padres: They had a 2-1 lead over the Dodgers in the NLDS last year, then got shut out in Games 4 and 5. How different is Yankees history right now if San Diego had found a way to win one of those two games? I think returning Mike King would be fair compensation for our pain and suffering.
Phillies: Dynamite rotation and an offense that has power (Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber), contact (Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott), and speed (Trea Turner). They’re good enough to win the World Series. That was true last year, the year before that, and the year before that. They just have to go do it now.
Pirates: This was the offseason to show everyone they are serious about winning, and instead payroll stayed flat, and their big additions were Andrew Heaney, Spencer Horwitz, and late career Tommy Pham. The fan base deserves better than this owner and front office. The perpetual rebuild continues.
Rangers: I keep talking myself into thinking they’re the best team in the AL, then they keep doing things like signing Patrick Corbin because they’re short on healthy pitchers. It’s World Series upside and 74-win downside. I’m not sure any team in the sport has a wider range of possible outcomes.
Rays: I know the Rays have a history of exceeding expectations, but they again look like a .500-ish team to me this year, and they’ll have to deal with all the headaches of playing outside in Florida. Rain delays, postponements, oppressive humidity. It’ll take a toll over the long season. Here is the 2025 season in one picture (via Chris Kirschner):
Reds: Some of their young building block players are stalling out or struggling to stay healthy (Christian Encarnacion Strand, Nick Lodolo, Noelvi Marte, Spencer Steer, etc.) and that’s worrisome. That said, when you have this much young talent, things can click and you’re a 90-win team just like that.
Red Sox: I think they improved more than any other AL team in the offseason. Garrett Crochet’s an ace, Alex Bregman is gonna rake in Fenway Park (and really improve their defense), and their farm system is so good. They can use their prospects to upgrade the roster through promotions and trades in a way the Orioles and Yankees just can’t. The BoSox are a problem.
Rockies: Kyle Freeland, Germán Márquez, and Antonio Senzatela are three of their top four starters this year and they were three of their top four in games started in 2017. I love this team. They’re bad and they never change anything. It’s refreshing to see a team that’s bad and doesn’t know why instead of bad on purpose.
Royals: They’re a trendy AL Central pick but I am a wee bit skeptical. They were incredibly healthy last year (only the Nationals lost less WAR to injury), healthy in a way that just doesn't repeat, and also a sub-.500 team against the Not White Sox. They also did nothing to improve an outfield that had a 79 wRC+ in 2024. Bobby Witt Jr. rules though.
Tigers: I don’t know what to make of this team. The pitching should be very good, especially the bullpen. They also have only 2.5 good hitters (Riley Greene, Gleyber Torres, and Kerry Carpenter against righties), and it’s not like their defense is top tier. The pitching carried them last year. Why can’t it this year?
Twins: Probably the most talented team in the AL Central, on paper? They could use one more reliable back-end starter, but it’s a good team. Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Royce Lewis started only 26 games together last year. Those three (and Joe Ryan) must stay healthy, to state the obvious.
White Sox: They’re very bad but they won’t lose 121 games again. There’s a reason only one team in history has lost that many games. You have to be bad and a lot has to go wrong to do that. They keep trading their veterans for catcher prospects. I understand taking the best players you can get, but maybe diversify a bit?
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
MikeD
92 wins. We got four runs today against a good pitching staff. Williams was shaky, but not concerned. There's extra pressure in the first game for a new team, and it's Opening Day, and it's Yankee Stadium. Add Williams was facing his former team, and he was bound to by hyped. Across town, Clay Holmes was Clay Holmes as a starter, nine runners on in 4.2. Meanwhile, the $835MM+ man K's to end the game with the winning runs on. He'll have a fine year, but I know Mets fans automatically go to a dark place and that's always funny as I have many Mets fans friends. The Red Sox will be tough. I picked them to win the division BEFORE Cole and Gil went down. Glad to have baseball back. And, yes, 92 wins.
Gary D.
Indeed, it is my namesake. Él es Gary.
Michael Axisa
I was going to say McCutchen but I was thinking career homers, not just NYY-MIL. Is it Gary? I have no idea who else it could be otherwise.
Gary D.
He’s somehow 4th on the combined NYY-MIL HR leaderboard! #1 is still active
Michael Axisa
Sheff?
Mike
I wish Cashman could spend the 307 million but alas we know he can’t. He’s been bad for too long …
Gary D.
Trivia! Out of all the hitters to ever play for both the Yankees and Brewers, which player has the most combined HR?
The Original Drew
The depth of this team scares the shit out of me. But because it’s Opening Day, I don’t care. BASEBALL IS BACK 162-0 BABY!
Gus G
I’ll take the under on 87 wins unfortunately but if I’ve learned one thing in all these years - you can’t predict baseball
RPS
It’s crazy the number of former Yankees on the Red Sox opening day roster (Narvaez, Refsnyder, Fitts, Chapman, Whitlock, Wilson, Weissert)!
DocBob
That AHEM had me laughing. You're the best, Mike!
Sam Forman
I assume you saw Sherman mention the Yankees had "tried" to acquire Canha prior to him getting moved to KC? Why wouldn't the Yankees have just signed him 2-3 weeks earlier, prior to Milwaukee? Why couldn't they have traded for him given that the return was a PTBNL? Sometimes the non moves are maddening to me.
Michael Axisa
They have India at 3B today. Not sure if that's the plan all year. I like Canha, but he's just an OBP guy vs. LHP at this point.
Bryan Mayer
That Rockies rotation fact is incredible.
I'm Not The Droids You're Looking For
" I’m skeptical, I admit it. I’m also willing to see this through. I can get on board with rooting for young guys to make the leap." Thanks for saying this Mike. I guess this is where I am too. That said, re: your 87 win prediction, it's exactly where I would've set the Over/Under, and I'm taking the Under. I agree this team won't be boring, difficult to root for, or the sort of dreadful dreck we ran out there in 2014. But I'm not so sure the results are going to be all that different in the end. But whatever, hope springs eternal! LGY and PLAY BALL!
Sam Forman
Royals added Canha and (at least are saying they) will play Jonathan India in the OF. Seem like a couple of decent upgrades, no?
