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March 28th, 2025: Wells, Rodón, Williams, Judge, Mailbag
🕑 Added 2025-03-28 10:00:13 +0000 UTCA notable thing happened on Opening Day: Aaron Judge is now eligible for the Hall of Fame. It was only a formality, but Judge has now appeared in a game in 10 different seasons, so he’s eligible to appear on the BBWAA’s ballot five years after he’s done playing. A lot of my writer pals have already said they anticipate voting for Judge because his peak has been so insane. Still has plenty of time to keep compiling though. Judge isn’t hanging up his spikes anytime soon. Here now is today’s post on the undefeated Yankees.
1. Opening Day thoughts. For the fourth straight season and the seventh time in the last eight seasons, the Yankees are 1-0. They won only one of their previous nine Opening Days before that. The off-day after Opening Day always stinks from a “I want to watch baseball dammit” perspective, but it’ll be easier to sit through after a win. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.
Austin Wells, Professional Leadoff Hitter
You know, I almost didn’t write that thing about Austin Wells being a good leadoff candidate last month, mostly because I didn’t think the Yankees would actually try it. 10 days later Wells was in the leadoff spot. He hit four leadoff homers in Spring Training, and when you do something like that, the team tends to keep you in the leadoff spot, even if it isn’t the best idea on paper.
On paper, Wells in the leadoff spot is a good idea, and he validated the lineup spot Thursday. First at-bat, third pitch of the season, line drive into the short porch (video). It was, incredibly, the first leadoff home run on Opening Day in Yankees’ history. How have they never done it before? Crazy. Here are a few more tidbits on the start of the Austin Wells, Leadoff Hitter era:
Wells is the first catcher to hit leadoff in any game in Yankees history. YES repeated that about a thousand times in Spring Training. Might as well repeat it here.
Prior to Thursday, the Yankees were the only team in baseball that never once had a catcher hit leadoff. The other 29 teams had done it at least once.
The leadoff homer was the Yankees’ first leadoff extra-base hit on Opening Day since Roger Maris doubled at Fenway Park in 1960 (via James Smyth).
Wells was the first catcher to hit a leadoff homer since MJ Melendez on Sept. 28th, 2022. It was the 21st leadoff homer by a catcher in baseball history.
"It was awesome. It was a really cool experience for myself not doing it ever," Wells said about leading off. "It was cool to hear the fans and just be the first batter of the season."
The home run came on a 93.4 mph Freddy Peralta fastball at the top of the zone. That isn’t premium velocity, but Wells had trouble with elevated heaters last season (and in the minors), so it was good to see him turn one around in his first at-bat of the year. Wells also walked later in the game and that’s what you want from your leadoff hitter. Give the team a quick 1-0 lead, take your walks, get on base.
The Opening Day home run earned Wells a longer leash atop the lineup. He's gonna be up there for a while, at least against righties. The all-time leaderboard in games at leadoff as a catcher is hilarious. Only one guy has ever done it for an extended period of time:
1. Jason Kendall: 453
2. Roger Bresnahan: 66
3. John Jaso: 60
4. Butch Wynegar: 48
5. Several tied with 43
Even if he doesn’t lead off against lefties and sits every fourth or fifth game as a catcher, Wells has a chance to catch Bresnahan this year, no? Sure he does. He could finish the season second all-time in games at leadoff as a catcher (lol). One game at a time though.
Wells hit six home runs in Spring Training, tied for the most in baseball, but that was only Spring Training. I mean, Jackson Chourio hit .469/.509/.714 in Spring Training, then went 0-for-5 with five strikeouts on Opening Day. You can't trust March. Still, I’d rather Wells swing the bat well than not, and he’s doing that now. I’m delighted the leadoff thing is working out as well as it is. Fingers crossed Opening Day is only the start.
Rodón on Opening Day
Wonderful Opening Day start for Carlos Rodón: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 7 K, 1 HR (video) on 89 pitches. He wiggled out of jams in the second and fourth, and didn’t unravel after a first batter homer and second batter single in the third. We’ve seen Rodón let things snowball. Add in the Opening Day adrenaline, and I was worried the wheels would come flying off. Fortunately, they never did.
“He was really in command of his emotions,” Aaron Boone said after the win. “If he does that, he’s capable of that every time.”
Rodón was a four-seamer/slider guy when he joined the Yankees. He threw those two pitches 92% of the time with the Giants in 2022 and was the most extreme two-pitch starter in the sport. Now look at Rodón’s pitch mix Thursday:
Three pitches at least 20% of the time plus two others 10% of the time, and oh by the way Rodón throws a sinker now. Those 10 sinkers on Opening Day are three fewer than he threw from 2019-24 combined. It hasn’t been a feature pitch for him since very early in his career. Now he’s comfortable throwing 10 of them in a start. The slider is still Rodón’s go-to pitch (15 swings and nine whiffs on the slider Thursday), but it is no longer his only weapon.
“The sinker helps as well. Gets them off the four-seamer,” Rodón said after Thursday’s win. “The scouting report on me the last few years has been four-seams up in the zone, sliders below … The broadening of the repertoire and adding a few other pitches that move a little different, the change of speeds, it definitely makes it less predictable. Especially the usage portion of it.”
Gotta give Rodón credit. The four-seamer/slider approach wasn’t working as well early last season and he’s really changed things up. He worked in his curveball a bit last year, then the changeup, and now he’s using a sinker. Rodón is a completely different pitcher than the guy the Yankees signed and that’s a good thing. He’s making adjustments and succeeding with them. Opening Day is just one start, we’ll see how the rest of the season goes, but Rodón’s continued evolution is fascinating. Credit to him for doing it.
Miscellany
Interesting ninth inning, eh? I thought we were done with those when Clay Holmes left. Devin Williams threw 36 pitches, his most in a game since 2022, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s unavailable Saturday. Williams will (probably) be fine. It was his first appearance with his new team, he was facing his former teammates, etc. I can understand being a bit jittery … Aaron Judge is still opening up too early with his hips, hence four whiffs on eight swings Thursday.
The old school baseball people would say he's pulling off the ball. Judge said he wanted 40-50 at-bats in Spring Training and got 41 plate appearances, so at the bottom of that range. I trust Judge to figure it out and get on track. I just hope it doesn’t take a month like last year … Jasson Domínguez was replaced for defense in the eighth inning even though he was due to hit in the bottom half. I do not like pulling the rookie for defense so early in the season. Let him work through it. Are they really going to do this in every close game? … The Brewers rolled out three lefty relievers behind Peralta (Bryan Hudson, Jared Koenig, Tyler Alexander) and I don’t think that’s a coincidence. We saw teams do that last year. The Yankees are short a righty bat (really two righty bats) and teams will shove lefties down their throat at every opportunity … Mark Leiter Jr. got the seventh inning with a one-run lead and struck out two of the three batters he faced. He pitched well in the postseason and after returning from his minor back issue in Spring Training. It seems he’s ahead of Fernando Cruz on the high leverage depth chart (Cruz warmed up in the ninth as Williams' pitch count climbed) … The Brewers tried the now illegal “run through second base with two outs” move in the sixth inning (video). I guess they didn't get the memo. MLB banned that this year and if it did work, meaning the runner beat the force at second and the other runner scored from third, the run would have been taken off the board and the out at second would have been recorded, ending the inning … And finally, Tim Hill’s warm up music is “Represent” by Nas this year, immediately putting him at the top of the Yankees’ reliever warm up song rankings.
Injury updates
Clarke Schmidt (shoulder) threw 40-ish pitches in a minor league spring game Tuesday. Normal rest puts him on track to start another minor league game Sunday, then Low-A Tampa’s season opener at home next Friday. I don’t think the Yankees will jump him right into Triple-A games this weekend (Scranton’s season starts tonight) … Giancarlo Stanton (elbows, calf) is actually making progress. He’s feeling better and he’s started taking dry swings. His return is not imminent, but they’re not longer waiting around and hoping three rounds of PRP does the trick … DJ LeMahieu (calf) has started baseball activities and is basically at the start of Spring Training in his build up. It’ll be a few weeks before he’s in rehab games, let alone an option for the Yankees … Scott Effross (hamstring) and Tyler Matzek (oblique) have each thrown several bullpens and are on track to face hitters soon-ish. Also, Matzek did not opt out of his minor league deal last weekend, obviously.
Up next
The three-game Brewers series resumes Saturday. Here’s what’s coming up between now and Tuesday’s post:
Friday: off-day
Saturday vs. Brewers: LHP Max Fried vs. LHP Nestor Cortes (1pm ET on YES)
Sunday vs. Brewers: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Aaron Civale (1:30pm ET on YES)
Monday: off-day
Nestor got a very nice hand during pregame baseline introductions Thursday. I'm glad. He was a good Yankee and a good and entertaining pitcher. With the way the ninth inning was going, I was prepared for the "Devin Williams blows the save in Game 1 and Cortes outpitches Fried in Game 2" doomsday narrative to play out.
Anyway, the Diamondbacks visit next week, then the Yankees start a road trip in Pittsburgh. Three straight interleague series to begin the season. What happened to the game I love? The Yankees won’t see an AL East opponent until they go back to their own Spring Training stadium to play the Rays in three weeks. Enjoy the off-day Friday, then get back at it Saturday afternoon.
2. Rapid fire thoughts. The Cubs DFAed old pal Cody Poteet before Opening Day. They needed the 40-man roster spot for someone else. I wonder if the Yankees will claim him on waivers (or even make a cash trade to jump the waiver line) given all their pitching injuries? Just to add another depth option, and a familiar one at that. Poteet had a bad spring and the Cubs optioned him out very early in camp. I wonder if there’s something going on there (stuff is down, injuries, etc.). I dunno … And finally, the annual Forbes MLB franchise valuations came out earlier this week and surprise, the Yankees once again lead baseball. They have every year since Forbes began publishing these lists back in 1998. Here are the most valuable MLB franchises entering 2025:
1. Yankees: $8.2 billion (MLB's first $8 billion franchise)
2. Dodgers: $6.8 billion
3. Red Sox: $4.8 billion
4. Cubs: $4.6 billion
5. Giants: $4 billion
…
30. Marlins: $1.05 billion
That $8.3 billion is up from $7.55 billion last year. Forbes estimates the Yankees lost $57M in 2024, which means they have great accountants. Yankee Global Enterprises, the entity that owns the Yankees and their stakes in Legends Hospitality, the YES Network, and whatever else, definitely did not lose money. I know this because if the Yankees really did lose $57M in a year they went to the World Series, they would have fired everyone on the business side, and they did not do it. Anyway, the Yankees are worth a lot of money. News at 11.
Mailbag Questions of the Week
Adam asks: Brandon Drury was just released by the White Sox. He had a rough season last year but, for what it’s worth, he’s looked good this spring. I’d like the Yankees to take a flier on him on a minor league deal to keep him stashed as depth in Triple A. What do you think?
Drury had a great spring (.410/.439/.821) and was going to make the White Sox, then he broke his left thumb last Friday when he was playing first base during a workout, and a runner ran into his hand. The White Sox released him two days later. Harsh. I would definitely take a flier on Drury. I signed him as part of my Offseason Plan and, as bad as he was last year (.169/.242/.228 and 34 wRC+), he played through an illness and a hamstring injury, and he’s a year removed from a .262/.306/.497 (114 wRC+) line and 26 homers. He’s a righty bat with a history of hitting lefties and some versatility (first, second, third, left). The Yankees need a guy pretty much exactly like that. Give him a minor league deal, rehab the thumb injury, then see whether he can be an option later this year. I’m all for it. Heck, the Yankees have so many 60-day injured list candidates (DJ LeMahieu, Jonathan Loáisiga, Giancarlo Stanton) that maybe they should just give Drury a big league deal and a 40-man roster spot to make sure they win any possible bidding war, and stash him on the injured list.
Brian asks: I saw people on twitter throwing out Eguy Rosario as a potential option for a RH bench bat. He is apparently a very good fielder and has hit .295/.360/.590 against LHP in AAA. Do you know anything about him?
I do. I wrote about him as a possible last minute trade target two weeks ago. Here’s part of what I wrote:
Rosario is fun more than good. He’s a capable gloveman at third base with a rocket arm he likes to show off. He’s a showman. He’ll wait and give the runner that one extra step before firing across the diamond, like this. Rosario has played the other infield positions as well, including plenty of second base, and the Padres have stuck him in left field a few times this spring, just to try to increase his versatility.
At the plate, Rosario’s a (Ezequiel) Duran-esque hacker with pull power, though he doesn’t swing and miss quite as much as Duran. There’s a lot of weak contact in between the times he does get a hold of one. Last year’s .263/.361/.531 (118 wRC+) line in Triple-A was strong, but, in scattered MLB playing time the last three years, Rosario has 34 strikeouts and four walks in 100 plate appearances. That ain’t gonna cut it.
Rosario hit .200/.279/.473 with six doubles and three home runs in Spring Training and the Padres opted to fill out their roster with Yuli Gurriel, Jose Iglesias, Gavin Sheets, and former Yankees prospect Brandon Lockridge (traded for Enyel De Los Santos). Rosario and old pal Tyler Wade got pushed off the roster. “Eguy’s a big league player,” Padres GM AJ Preller told AJ Cassavell after Rosario was DFAed Thursday, adding they’ve had trade talks about him and want something of value in return rather than the token cash or PTBNL.
I think there’s a pretty good argument to be made Rosario is better than Oswald Peraza. Neither has hit much in the big leagues, but Rosario’s performed better in Triple-A, and he’s a good defender too. The advantage Peraza has is being able to play shortstop, but how much does that matter? Anthony Volpe never takes a day off. Replacing Peraza with Rosario trades some defense for some offensive upside.
I don’t have a firm opinion on Rosario. If the Yankees claim or trade for him and want to try him rather than Peraza or Pablo Reyes, okay, I’d understand. We’re talking about swapping out role players on the short side of the platoon, not adding needle-movers. Sometimes these guys run into BABIP hot streaks and give you three great months. Is Rosario more likely to do that than Peraza or Reyes? Beats me.
George asks: Do you think the Yanks will (wink, wink) do everything possible to keep LeMahieu off the roster this season? It doesn't seem like there's an injury which would be covered by insurance, if any. We all know he's finished. I could see this scenario and maybe work out something in the off season to defer some money or just release him and move on.
Given the third base situation (they don't really have one), I don’t think the Yankees are trying to keep DJ LeMahieu away from the team as long as they can. They’re one infield injury away from playing Andrew Velazquez regularly, and although I don’t expect much from LeMahieu at this point, I expect even less from Velazquez. I don’t think the Yankees themselves expect much from LeMahieu but I also don’t think they’re ready to cut bait. They released Aaron Hicks and Alex Rodriguez during the season, after giving them time to show they had nothing left to offer. I don’t think they’d play the “find a way to keep him on the injured list” game. If they’re done with LeMahieu, they would be done with him and release him. We have plenty of evidence that they’ll cut someone when they think he’s done, and I don’t think they’re there with LeMahieu yet. Whenever he gets healthy, it might be his last chance to show he can contribute.
Emiliano asks: Could a high BABIP be an indication of skill and not just luck? I'm talking about skilled hitters who slap the ball, shorten the bat, try to take advantage of gaps, etc.
The nature of the game means BABIP will never 100% be a function of skill, but it is absolutely an indicator of skill. Aaron Judge has a .344 BABIP in over 4,300 career plate appearances. Why? Because he hits the everloving crap out of the ball. Through 2019, Giancarlo Stanton ran a .320 BABIP in close to 5,000 plate appearances. Ichiro Suzuki’s career .338 BABIP was of course skill-related. Dan Richards looked at how well certain skills (pull rate, line drive rate, etc.) correlate to BABIP a few years ago. That research could use an update, but for sure, there is a skill component to BABIP for hitters and pitchers. It’s not all randomness.
Steve asks: I ask this question every year, and you’re gracious enough to answer it every year, so if you’d indulge me yet again … Are there any fun west coast teams - outside the obvious Dodgers - that I could get into during late night baseball viewing on mlbtv or extra innings? Was thinking the Dbacks or Rangers could be interesting, but I have an aversion to indoor baseball. Padres maybe, still some fun names in the lineup. Anyone fun on the Rockies or Giants? A’s in that juco ballpark?
The Diamondbacks were going to be my first answer and I agree, indoor baseball stinks. It’s necessary, especially in Phoenix in the summer, but the aesthetics stink. The D’Backs have a lot of really fast and fun players, and that always makes for a good time. I am not a fan of their broadcast crew though. I’m gonna pull up the road broadcast most nights. I’m interested to watch the Athletics this year, at least out of the gate. They have some good players and I want to see how the whole Triple-A ballpark thing goes. The Padres have a top tier broadcast duo (Don Orsillo and Mark Grant) and the chaos that is Fernando Tatis Jr. (I mean that as a compliment), which is a great start on the late night watchability scale. I find the Angels, Giants, Mariners, and Rockies all pretty boring. Can’t say I’ll be eager to turn those games on after the Yankees this summer. I suspect I’m going to spend a lot of nights watching the D’Backs and Padres (and Dodgers) this year. Those are going to be my late night teams. (One reason I enjoyed watching the Mariners in the past: Dave Sims, who is now the Yankees’ radio broadcaster. I no longer have to endure watching the Mariners' offense to listen to Sims.)
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
chuangeUp
No Soto Plan B: Snell instead of Crochet, Conforto instead of Marte. Sign Profar.
chuangeUp
Do not retain Gerrit Cole Trade for Garrett Crochet. White Sox receive Jasson Domínguez and Spencer Jones Extend Garrett Crochet for 7 years, $159M Sign Max Scherzer for 1 year, $17 M Trade for Reid Detmers and $3M. Angels receive Luis Gil Trade Marcus Stroman and $7.5M to Giants Trade for Devin Williams. Brewers receive Nestor Cortes and Oswaldo Cabrera Trade for Andrew Nardi. Marlins receive Roderick Arias and Henry Lalane Sign Chris Martin for 1 year, $8M Sign Juan Soto for 15 years, $720M. Soto can opt out after 2028, 2029, or 2031 Extend Trent Grisham for 3 years, $12M. Grisham can decline 2027 player option Trade for Starling Marte and $14.5M Trade for Josh Naylor. Guardians receive Jose Trevino and Brock Selvidge Sign Ha-Seong Kim for 2 years, $33M. Kim can decline 2026 player option
Matt B
In the spirt of Judge is now HoF eligible, and his absurd peak: He enters the year with 52.6 bWAR, 13th on the Yankees all-time list. A 4.5 WAR 2025 - a near certainty for healthy Judge - gets him to 7th. A 7.2 WAR season - which is <i>below<i> his 162 game average, gets him past Yogi to 6th, trailing only the Yankees Mt. Rushmore and Jeter. He's a very hard player to project/predict: his size and his success are both close to unprecedented, and he can just as easily fall off a cliff as he can continue to put up historic seasons. But the guy has 7 years left on his deal. At an <b>average<b> of 3 bWAR / yr over the duration, he'll surpass Jeter. At 3.8 bWAR /yr, he'll surpass DiMaggio. We may well be watching one of the top four Yankees of all time.</b></b></i></i>
Geoffrey W.
I wonder if part of the reason they kept Rodon out of games this spring was because they were working on such a drastic change to his pitch mix and didn't want to tip their hand too much? Eh. Maybe. Cat's out of the bag now anyway.
Kevin Parlato
I was astonished that Brian Downing wasn't on your leadoff catchers list. It was a big deal back in the eighties, he was one of the early "hercules" bodied players, but he had some high .obp numbers. Was this a function of being a DH in many of those games?
DocBob
I'm mad online the Yanks took the Martian out early. C'mon, it's only the first game of the season and already you're telling him he's a bad defender?? How about giving the kid some confidence instead? Wait for him to screw up in the late innings before pulling this crap.
MikeD
Derek Jeter is one of the modern day kings of BABiP, rocking a .350 BABiP over a 20-year career. Makes sense. Jeter hit tons of line drives to the opposite field, which are not the easiest to field; meanwhile, when he would mishit a ball, he'd often tap it into the infield and would run a lot of them out. So for some, it is not a fluke.
Michael Axisa
It's funny, almost all the players said they will continue to shave/grow a beard because their wife/girlfriend likes it. It won't be any deeper than that for most of them.
Michael Axisa
If nothing else, he loves his job: https://x.com/davesims_/status/1905389065349796225
MikeD
Haven't listened to him yet, but as is the case with all announcers, it takes time to grow comfortable with them, just as it takes time for the announcer to grow comfortable. I suspect he'll be just fine in time.
chuangeUp
17-page ideal offseason moves. Plus 10-page plan B and appendix. https://ycbaseballplans.wordpress.com/2025/03/29/2024-25-new-york-yankees-offseason-plan/
Will
Having watched little to no spring training, I enjoyed seeing what facial hair the players were rocking. Rodon and Dominguez were surprises and looked good. Leiter's goatee looked weird, very 90s. As much as I like Wells's 'stache, I wish he'd go full beard - it looked good in that TikTok of his that went viral last year.
Will
I listened to him for the first time yesterday for a few innings. I'll say that he's enjoyable to listen to, but I didn't feel he was great at actually describing what's going on. Beyond simply misspeaking a lot, I'd frequently hear the crack of the bat, and the crowd reaction, and feel like it was taking him forever to say what was actually happening.
DZB
I think the brightest takeaway from game 1 was how much more Rodon looks like a complete pitcher. It never felt like he would get back to his former high level of success relying on just two pitches. Yesterday he looked really crafty, keeping hitters off balance.
kyle
Rodon seems to have gone thru the Turbo CC revival. Kudos to him and the staff they've turned what looked to be a disastrous signing into hopefully a pretty ok one. Good start here, hope he keeps it up
Christopher Law
Nice work being on that Wells leadoff argument before it was cool
DZB
I liked him as the choice to replace the legend, but he's not been great thus far. I've listened to a few spring games he did, and I had the radio broadcast as the audio selection while watching the opening game. I think he'll improve as he gets more comfortable (I liked him on the radio in NY way back when), which will mean he relies less on all of his Seattle stories. One thing I noticed, only because it was so poor is that his pitch calling is pretty bad - you'd never notice if you were just listening to the radio on its own, but having the video going with the radio audio meant I could see where the pitches were when he called them.
Brent Nycz
Polling the Patreon community - thoughts about Dave Sims today on the radio broadcast? I could only listen to the final out on the radio (dinner time comes early for little ones), but his excitement and voice fit perfectly for the moment. Probably the best move of the offseason, ha.
