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June 13th, 2025: Royals Series, Stanton, Mailbag
🕑 Added 2025-06-13 10:00:13 +0000 UTCThe Old Timers’ Game will return this year. Bob Klapisch says it will be a softball game, not baseball, and that’s fine with me. The Old Timers’ Game has not been played since 2019 (in part due to the pandemic). Klapisch says Derek Jeter said he wouldn’t attend Old Timers’ Day if the Yankees insisted he play in the game, so they scrapped it. If that’s true, a) Jeter needs to get over himself, and b) why didn’t they just play the game and let Jeter sit out? Make him manage or something. An Old Timers’ Game without Jeter is better than no Old Timers’ Game at all. I’m glad it’s coming back this year. Old Timers’ Day is Saturday, August 9th. The Astros will be in town. Let’s now get to today’s post.
1. Weekday thoughts. Aaron Judge is in one of those stretches where he hits nothing but absurd home runs. Last weekend he hit the longest opposite field home run in baseball this year. Tuesday night he hit a ball on top of the Royals Hall of Fame (video). Statcast clocked it at 469 feet. When you hit a ball over the Royals Hall of Fame, they have to put you in it. Those are the rules. Wednesday night Judge turned 99.0 mph around for an opposite field shot (video). It was the second fastest pitch he’s ever hit out, behind the Emmanuel Clase dinger in Game 3 of last year’s ALCS (99.2 mph). Judge has more opposite field home runs (10) than 20 teams this year, including good teams like the Cubs (eight) and Dodgers (eight). Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.
KC sweep
Good, business-like, no-nonsense sweep of an inferior team in Kansas City. Thursday’s game was a bit weird with the mid-game rain delay and the game’s only run scoring on a ball that didn’t leave the infield even though Pablo Reyes stumbled around third (video), but the Yankees took care of business. They swept the season series from the Royals and outscored them 29-11 in the six games.
All three starting pitchers – Max Fried, Clarke Schmidt, Will Warren – were excellent, the bullpen was very good outside the ninth inning Wednesday (when the defense got sloppy), and the offense didn’t have much trouble Tuesday and Wednesday. The Yankees had a five-run inning Tuesday because six straight batters reached with two outs. They had a five-run inning Wednesday because five straight reached with two outs. Long and tough at-bats up and down the lineup.
Judge was out of Thursday's lineup and there's never a good time to sit him, but he started the first 66 games of the season, and it's starting to get hot out. The Yankees had an off-day Monday, Judge was the DH Tuesday, then he sat out Thursday. Maybe he's nursing something? If he is, it can't be that big of a deal given the homers he's hit lately. Judge was never gonna play 162 games and the Yankees grabbed a win on his off-day.
The Yankees have 17 five-run innings this year, two more than they had all of last year. Also, Thursday was their fourth 1-0 win this season. They had three 1-0 wins from 2022-24, and the last time they had four in a season was 1976. This team puts up big innings on the regular while also winning the closest possible games when that’s what they have to do that night. A series of contrasts, this was.
I don’t really have anything more to say about the Royals than that? The Yankees bounced back from the Red Sox series with three great performances against an overmatched Royals team. They went into Kauffman Stadium and did exactly what they needed to do, and they did it with four regulars out of the starting lineup Thursday. The Yankees are a season high 17 games over .500. Boston is next.
Giancarlo’s imminent return
It’s getting to be time to talk about how Giancarlo Stanton fits into the roster and into the lineup. He started a rehab assignment with Double-A Somerset earlier this week and is 3-for-11 with a double and a walk in three rehab games (video). Stanton played Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. He was initially expected to sit Thursday, though I guess he felt good enough to play, so he played.
"For him, just getting his body built up and being in a position to where he knows he’s had enough at-bats and enough reps to be game-ready, to be season-ready,” Aaron Boone told Jackson Stone. "He’s had a pretty big ramp-up. He’s had a lot of at-bats already, even going into his rehab start, so just making sure he’s had the necessary reps and he feels really good about when he’s ready to join us, that he’s Big G.”
Even if Stanton doesn’t return this weekend in Boston, it sounds like he’ll be back soon, as in before the next post on Tuesday. This might be my last chance to talk about how all the pieces will fit. The Yankees will have three outfielders for two spots (Cody Bellinger, Jasson Domínguez, Trent Grisham) and three first basemen/DHs for two spots (Stanton, Paul Goldschmidt, Ben Rice). Two of those six guys will be out of the lineup each night. That’s just the math of it.
Lineup-wise, I think five things should happen:
Bellinger should get more playing time than Domínguez and Grisham.
Goldschmidt must always play against lefties.
Stanton must always play against lefties.
Rice must always play against righties.
Domínguez should play against most righties.
Stanton didn’t fare all that well against lefties last year (95 wRC+), though that was unusual for him. He’s one of the best righty vs. lefty sluggers ever, and if you’re not gonna put this guy in the lineup against lefties, why is he on the roster? Rice has a .236 OBP against lefties. Goldschmidt has an 84 wRC+ against righties and didn’t hit them last year either. A Rice/Goldy platoon at first seems obvious.
Will the Yankees actually do that? I’m not sure. Goldschmidt is the kinda veteran they tend to keep in the lineup full-time even when there are reasons to platoon him or sit him or rest him. Grisham has come back to Earth and should be behind Bellinger and Domínguez in the left/center field playing time depth chart. If he heats back up, the Yankees can adjust and play him more. Does this seem doable?
vs. RHP
1B: Ben Rice (Goldschmidt comes in for defense late)
LF: Jasson Domínguez (Grisham comes in for defense late)
CF: Cody Bellinger
DH: Giancarlo Stanton
Bench: Paul Goldschmidt and Trent Grisham
vs. LHP
1B: Paul Goldschmidt
LF: Cody Bellinger
CF: Trent Grisham (I guess?)
DH: Giancarlo Stanton (can pinch-run Domínguez)
Bench: Jasson Domínguez and Ben Rice
Stanton’s not the hitter he was in his prime but he did hit 27 homers in only 459 plate appearances last year. It’s still game-changing pop. I wouldn’t outright platoon him, at least not until he shows he shouldn’t play against righties. Keep in mind that history tells us Stanton will not be an every single day player when he first returns. The Yankees will ease him back in. Two days on, one day off, that kinda thing. That will ease the playing time logjam to some extent.
The x-factor here, and something Boone put out there earlier this week, is playing Rice at catcher. He has 7.2 career big league innings at catcher, all at the end of blowouts. His last two appearances at catcher (in Colorado and this past Tuesday in Kansas City) were two full innings, which is the faintest possible “they’re giving him more responsibility behind the plate” evidence there is.
“At some point we’ll probably get him back there in a game. I think the biggest challenge will be actually going out there and catching six, seven, eight, nine innings,” Boone told Greg Joyce. “... This is a skilled catcher. He has demonstrated in his minor league career, this is a really good receiver. He’s got the skill set to do it. Just the role hasn’t been there yet here for him to do it. But I was really pleased with what I saw from him (Tuesday), albeit in just a couple innings.”
Giving Rice starts at catcher would be another way to get him into the lineup. That’s twice a week the Yankees can get Rice into the lineup without tying up first base or DH. He can – and should – play some first base and DH to get more at-bats in addition to catching. The Yankees can’t turn him into a strict backup catcher, but actually using Rice at catcher for a full game opens some lineup doors.
In theory, the roster move for Stanton is easy: DFA Pablo Reyes. He barely plays, and when he does, he often screws something up. Being comfortable with Rice behind the plate leaves open the possibility the Yankees will demote J.C. Escarra. I wouldn't hate it. The last guy on the bench rarely plays anyway, but Reyes can play every position except catcher. Escarra is a first baseman/catcher who can play third in a pinch. There’s limited utility there.
The Yankees wouldn’t need a third catcher to put Rice at DH and Austin Wells at catcher. If Wells gets hurt and you have to forfeit the DH to put Rice behind the plate the rest of the game, you just do it and deal with it for a few innings. The Mariners regularly DH Cal Raleigh. The Orioles do the same with Adley Rutschman. Teams are willing to put both catchers in the lineup at the same time now. If the Yankees are truly comfortable with Rice at catcher, do the two catchers in the lineup thing with him and Wells.
DFAing Reyes is the easy move for Stanton but I think optioning Escarra and using Rice as the backup catcher is a real possibility. If Escarra isn’t the backup catcher who catches twice a week, he’s kinda useless. A good vibes guy and nothing else. Reyes is useless too, but he’s useless in a way that is more useful than Escarra given his versatility. How many first base/catcher/DH guys do the Yankees need, really?
Whatever the Yankees do when Stanton returns, roster-wise and lineup-wise, is not final. They can and I’m sure will try different things and see what works, and what doesn’t. The important thing is Stanton will be back soon and add more power to an already powerful lineup. There will be lineup complaints on the daily, that’s the way it goes, but too many good players is a wonderful thing.
Miscellany
What a game for Wells on Tuesday. He went 2-for-4 with a two-run double and a three-run home run (video). The homer came against a lefty on the ninth pitch of the at-bat, and broke the game open. The double came on the tenth pitch of the at-bat. Katie Sharp notes Wells has four hits in at-bats of at least nine pitches this season, the most in baseball. He has eight nine-pitch plate appearances overall, third most in baseball behind Miguel Vargas (11) and Jonathan Aranda (nine) … Domínguez had three hits Tuesday, all against lefties, though two were Guardians-esque bloops into the triangle in shallow right. Hey, whatever gets him on the board against lefties. El Marciano is hitting .320/.379/.480 (141 wRC+) with an acceptable 20.7 K% against lefties since May 1st. Who knew? Only 29 plate appearances, but still. Keep the bloop singles coming, Jasson … The Yankees activated DJ LeMahieu a month ago today, and he’s hitting .279/.372/.397 (123 wRC+) with his best contact quality numbers since 2020. I have no idea how long it will last, but this is way more than I expected even from a small sample size hot streak … And finally, Brent Headrick was optioned and Scott Effross was called up Thursday. Effross allowed nine runs and 15 baserunners in 5.2 Triple-A innings, and the numbers on his stuff ain’t good. This seems like a straightforward “we just wanted a fresh arm” move. JT Brubaker’s 30-day rehab stint ends Tuesday. I bet he replaces Effross then (or possibly sooner).
Injury updates
Luke Weaver (hamstring) has already thrown two bullpens. The most recent was Wednesday. He must be feeling pretty good to be on a mound already. Not sure what’s next for him, but Weaver is doing more than playing catching … Jazz Chisholm Jr. left Tuesday’s (neck tightness) and Wednesday’s (groin tightness) games with injuries. He sat Thursday and it sounds like he avoided anything major with the groin. I’ll feel better when I see him back in the lineup. Losing Jazz again would stink … Marcus Stroman (knee) started a rehab assignment Wednesday: 3.1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 4 K (video) on 46 pitches with Somerset. He told Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d) he is “very open to whatever” role the Yankees have in mind for him, so he’s had a change of heart since the “I’m a starter” thing in Spring Training. For now, he will get built up as a starter. The 30-day rehab window means the latest Stroman can be activated is July 11th … Jake Cousins (flexor) felt something in his elbow and was pulled off his rehab assignment. An MRI revealed a UCL injury. There are second opinions and whatnot to come, but this probably wipes him out for the season. Even a minor UCL strain that doesn’t require surgery will come with weeks of rest and rehab. Bummer … And finally, a prospect injury update: Bryce Cunningham, my No. 6 prospect, is back on the High-A Hudson Valley injured list. He recently missed a week with what Baseball America says was shoulder inflammation. Cunningham returned to make one start, and now he’s back on the shelf. I assume it’s the shoulder again. Pitchers, man.
Up next
Another series with the Red Sox, this time in Boston. The Yankees then go home to begin a seven-game homestand. They’re only three days into his 16 games in 16 days stretch. Here is the weekend schedule:
Friday at Red Sox: LHP Ryan Yarbrough vs. LHP Garrett Crochet (7pm ET on YES, MLBN)
Saturday at Red Sox: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Hunter Dobbins (7pm ET on FOX)
Sunday at Red Sox: LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Brayan Bello (1:30pm ET on YES, MLBN)
Monday vs. Angels: TBA vs. TBA (7pm ET on YES, MLBN)
(Monday lines up to be Clarke Schmidt vs. José Soriano. Soriano is high up on the K+GB leaderboard.)
Boston called up top prospect – that’s the top prospect in baseball, not just their system – Roman Anthony earlier this week. He is 1-for-12 with three strikeouts through three games. The Yankees will start three lefties this series and Alex Cora pinch-hit for the lefty hitting Anthony against a lefty the other night. He also platoons Marcelo Mayer, their other elite prospect and another lefty hitter. Either Cora will let Anthony and Mayer face a bunch of lefties this weekend, something he’s yet to do, or we’re not gonna see them much.
2. 2025 draft prospect: Texas OF Max Belyeu. The 2025 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 39 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I like for whatever reason. We’re covering a little of everything.
Belyeu, 21, was not drafted out of his Fort Worth area high school and barely played as a freshman for a deep Texas team (21 plate appearances). He broke out as a sophomore in 2024, slashing .329/.423/.667 with 18 home runs in 59 games. That earned him Big 12 Player of the Year honors. Belyeu broke his thumb diving for a ball this March and needed surgery. He returned in mid May and hit four home runs in nine games as the Longhorns’ season wound down.
Overall, Belyeu slashed .303/.410/.576 with nine homers and 13.5 BB% in 32 games this spring, though his 25.0 K% is elevated for a potential first round college bat. It was 17.7 K% last year, and he struck out 15 times in nine games after coming back from the thumb injury (including four three-strikeout games), so I’m guessing rust was a factor. Here’s where Belyeu slots into the latest draft prospect rankings:
Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 32
ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 48
FanGraphs: No. 24
MLB Pipeline: No. 31
Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 35
If you’re reading this, you know the Cape Cod League is a wood bat summer league featuring many of the top college players in the country. Belyeu did not fare well on the Cape last summer. He hit .222/.306/.352 with a 33.3 K% in 18 games. I can’t remember the last time the Yankees used a high pick on a player who struggled on the Cape, but maybe they’ll zig after zagging for so long. Here’s video and here’s a snippet of MLB Pipeline’s free scouting report:
One of the best all-around offensive players in the college crop, Belyeu hits for average and power while controlling the strike zone and making consistent hard contact. He has a quick left-handed swing geared for line drives, showing the ability to pull pitches for home runs or backspin them out of the park to the opposite field … Belyeu is a good athlete with average-to-solid speed but doesn't stand out with his instincts on the bases or in the outfield. He's inconsistent with his reads and routes, which precludes him from playing center field. His arm is both strong and accurate, so he fits nicely in right.
FanGraphs says Belyeu has a “notable red flag in his tendency to chase spin out of the zone,” which got him into trouble on the Cape. Still, Belyeu came into the spring as a potential top 20-ish pick before his broke his thumb. He’s up the Yankees’ alley as a lefty hitter with power, athleticism, and enough defensive chops. The thumb could be the reason a player who otherwise would not have been available to the Yankees this year makes it to the No. 39 pick.
3. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees lost two Triple-A starters this week. Anthony DeSclafani used an opt out to join the Diamondbacks in the wake of Corbin Burnes’ Tommy John surgery, and Brandon Leibrandt was granted his release so he could sign with the CTBC Brothers Baseball Club in Taiwan. The Brothers have an excellent logo:
Leibrandt had a 2.85 ERA (4.70 FIP) in 41 innings around a minor injury for the RailRiders and DeSclafani had a 4.50 ERA (3.59 FIP) in 20 innings. Even with those two gone, the Triple-A rotation is overstuffed. Scranton has an MLB veteran (Carlos Carrasco), two prospects (Zach Messinger, Cam Schlittler), two journeymen (Erick Leal, Allan Winans), and an organizational arm (Sean Boyle) who need innings, plus JT Brubaker’s been there on his rehab assignment. You hate to lose pitching, but there are only so many roster spots to go around.
Mailbag Questions of the Week
Brandon asks: I read somewhere that Aaron Judge is the worst baserunner (based on some statistics) in the league. Watching him, it certainly doesn’t feel like Judge is a bad base runner like Gleyber or Soto. But I was wondering if base running statistics are unfairly weighted to guys who are on base all the time. Judge is on base more than anyone in baseball, so is the reason he is rated so poorly because he has more opportunities?
Judge does rate as one of the worst baserunners in baseball this year. FanGraphs has him at -3.3 runs on the bases. Statcast has him at -3 runs. Baseball Prospectus has him at -0.3 runs. All three have him at the bottom of the league. Either dead last or fractions of a run away from dead last. Judge is 6-for-9 stealing bases this year, a poor 67% success rate, and his extra-base taken rate (first-to-third on a single, etc.) is only 31%. The league average is 40%. I agree the eye test doesn’t say he’s a poor baserunning, but the numbers don’t lie.
The baserunning stats are cumulative, so the more chances you have to run the bases, the more you can add/subtract value. Judge being on base so much (his .488 OBP is 61 points higher than anyone else) gives him more opportunities to run the bases, so yes, he gets dinged more for being a poor baserunner. I wouldn’t call it unfair. Gerrit Cole is a great pitcher who happens to give up a lot of homers. You can still be great overall while being bad at one thing, like Judge and baserunning.
Judge’s extra-base taken rate was up above 40% earlier in his career. It’s been closer to 30% the last three years. Blame age and the toe injury. When you’re on base that much and you take the extra base that infrequently, you’re going to rate as a poor baserunner. It is what it is. I’ll live with it give everything else Judge does for the Yankees.
David asks: What's up with Johnny lasagna 's hr problem?
Jonathan Loáisiga has given up four home runs in his 11 innings this year. It is the second most homers he’s given up in any year of his career, behind only 2019. He allowed six in 31.2 innings as an up/down swingman that season. Loáisiga’s home run problem is really a hard contact problem. He’s give up much more of it this year than at any other point in his career:
Average exit velocity: 90.5 mph in 2025 vs. 85.5 mph career
Barrel rate: 12.5% vs. 4.1%
Hard-hit rate: 40.6% vs. 29.9%
Loáisiga has already allowed four barrels (i.e. the best combination of exit velocity and launch angle) in his 11 innings this year. He allowed four from 2022-24. Yes, he had injuries those years, but we’re talking about 32 balls in play this year vs. 223 from 2022-24. Loáisiga is getting squared up much more often.
Obviously, he’s coming back from major surgery, and it’s not uncommon for pitchers to have what I’ll call a rust period after a UCL repair (look at Sandy Alcantara and Spencer Strider). Loáisiga’s velocity is down a tick, he’s more 95-97 mph than 98-99 mph, and he’s not getting quite as much movement on his sinker either. Is this rust? Who he is now with his third UCL? Just an 11-inning blip? I dunno, but home runs are the result of hard contact, and Loáisiga is allowing more of it than ever this season.
Guy asks: Given the recent bullpen issues, should they consider using Gil as a two inning set up man similar to the way M. Rivera was used in 1996?
As long as Will Warren and Ryan Yarbrough are in the rotation, the Yankees have to stretch Luis Gil out and see what he can do as a starter. When he’s healthy and right, he can be pretty good. Good enough to start a postseason game, and the postseason rotation behind Max Fried and Carlos Rodón is a bit up in the air at the moment. If there comes a point later this year where it makes sense to put Gil in the bullpen and let him air it out for an inning or two at a time, then do it. I think we’re a ways off from that though. Let Gil start and see how impactful he can be in the rotation first. It’s easier to go from starter to reliever later in the season than the other way around.
George asks: What is your long-term 2nd base projection? Do the Yanks simply extend Jazz beyond 2026, eventually move Volpe there when Lombard is ready, or is there a future for a guy like Riggio or another minor leaguer long term?
I haven’t thought much about this. Jazz Chisholm Jr is under team control through next season and DJ LeMahieu, who is apparently a second baseman again, is signed through next season too, so I guess that means 2026 is covered. 2027 is two years away and that is an eternity in this game. In 2023, who would have guessed Chisholm would be the everyday third baseman in 2025?
Anthony Volpe’s defense continues to rate as above average because of his range, particularly coming in on the ball. His arm is weak though. His top throw (this one) is 85.8 mph this year. The average shortstop throw is 85.5 mph, and Volpe’s average is 82.2 mph. He makes it work. Will it become a problem at some point? Position players are like pitchers. They lose velocity with age too.
Sliding Volpe to second base and installing George Lombard Jr., who is getting raves for his defense this year, at shortstop come 2027 seems doable, though Volpe is the Golden Child, and I’m not sure I see the Yankees moving him off short anytime soon. The Yankees rarely extend players. If the Yankees sign Jazz long-term, I suspect it would happen when he hits free agency, not when he’s under team control.
Second tier infield prospects like Roc Riggio and Jorbit Vivas aren’t the kinda players the Yankees just give a job to. For one of them to take over as the everyday second baseman in 2027, an injury would have to create an opportunity, and they would have to take the job and run with it. Vivas had that opportunity earlier this year and did nothing with it, but maybe he gets another shot at some point.
My guess the 2027 starting second baseman is not in the organization right now, and the Yankees will pick up that player via trade or free agency at some point in the next 18 months or so. Nico Hoerner and Brandon Lowe will be free agents during the 2026-27 offseason. Perhaps it’s one of them? Trying to map out a position two years into the future is very tough. Two years is a lifetime in this game.
Kevin asks: Have you heard anything from people about if Allan Winans is doing anything different? He is putting up ridiculous numbers and I have seen nothing about him. Not sure if it's just a hot streak or the organization has done some tweaking that's changed his outlook.
Winans’ numbers with Triple-A Scranton are ridiculous: 0.61 ERA (2.36 FIP) with 30.1 K%, 6.8 BB%, and 45.4 GB% in 44 innings. He had his fourth career 10-strikeout game on April 23rd (video). That’s out of 181 games at all levels. With the caveat that I am not the smartest guy when it comes to pitch data, it does appear the Yankees made some tweaks with Winans. I will annotate the pitch movement graph:
(1) It’s called a slider here, but Winans throws a sweeper, and he is getting more sweep on it this year. Note how many green dots were on the right side of the -12.5 inches horizontal break line last season. There are very few this year, so the sliders/sweepers he is throwing are moving a heck of a lot more.
(2) Similar deal with the changeup. Last year Winans had a bunch of changeups (purple dots) on the left side of the 12.5 inches horizontal break line, and there aren’t any this year. That means his changeup is moving much more in on righties/away from lefties. This is what the Yankees do. They’ve helped several guys (Carlos Rodón, Ryan Yarbrough, Luke Weaver, etc.) get more movement on their changeups. The changeup is their specialty and it is Winans’ go-to pitch. It has a 45% whiff rate this year, which is excellent. (Triple-A average is 33% whiffs on changeups.)
(3) Winans is throwing a curveball now too. Only a handful in his 44 innings, but it’s there. They aren’t misclassified sliders either. You can see the red dots have different break than the green dots. As far as I can tell, the curveball is an entirely new pitch. It’s not a pitch Winans threw once upon a time that the Yankees have brought back.
Again, I’m not the best with pitch data, but the movement graphs seem to make it clear. Winans is getting more sweep on his sweeper and more fade on his changeup, plus he’s throwing the occasional curveball. Probably not coincidentally, Winans has been great in Triple-A. The Yankees brought in a pitcher on the cheap (via waivers in this case) and toyed around with him. This isn’t anything out of the ordinary.
The Yankees called Winans up for four days between Marcus Stroman getting hurt and Clarke Schmidt coming back in April, though he did not get into a game. He remains on the 40-man roster in Scranton. They haven’t called him up since that four-day stint in April even though they could use a true long man, and the Yankees did DFA Winans and pass him through waivers in Spring Training. I think this is a “they consider him a useful depth arm but don’t love him” situation. Still, perform like this in Triple-A, and some team will give him another shot.
Andrew asks: How lucky are the Yankees that some of their Plan Bs post Soto did not pan out? Willy Adames and Christian Walker have been brutal. What’s going on there?
Yeah, the Yankees are batting close to 1.000 on their Plan B moves. Devin Williams has not been as dominant as expected, and re-signing Jonathan Loáisiga has yet to provide the desired impact, but otherwise things are working out very well. When your two whiffs are relievers on one-year commitments and not, say, your No. 2 starter or everyday first baseman or center fielder, you had a pretty good winter. (The worst move of the offseason was the Carlos Narváez trade, though he would’ve only been a backup here.)
I did not like Adames as a fit when the Yankees were connected to him and I was a yay on Walker while noting there were red flags, which have really manifested this year. His strikeouts and whiffs are up, he’s gotten even worse against fastballs, and even his defense is suddenly below average. The Astros are paying Walker and José Abreu a combined $39.5M this year. Yikes. Adames went from one of the best parks for righty power hitters to one of the worst, and his multi-year decline in the field has continued.
Scanning the list of free agents, the Yankees were also connected to Walker Buehler (oof), Anthony Santander (ouch), Ha-Seong Kim (TBD), and, you know, Juan Soto (he’ll be fine). Rumored trade targets included Kyle Tucker (he’s been great), Gavin Lux (solid), and Luis Arraez (eh). I’m sure I’m missing a few others, but those are the notables. There is plenty of time for Plan B to go awry. Right now though, other than Tucker, there isn’t a whole lot that leaves you saying damn, too bad the Yankees didn’t get that done.
Brian asks: Is it just me or have the Yankees have had much less getaway day games during the week this season? It feels like every Thursday game has been a night game.
Ames asks: Okay, I need to get this one off my chest. Every week, I feel like the team we play is coming off a rest day and we aren't it. It happened last week with the Red Sox (they were off Thursday, we weren't) and its happening again this weekend with the Red Sox again. I looked this up and found its already happened like 5 or 6 times this year. I then looked to find the reverse (times we went into a series off a rest day and our opponent didn't) and found zero occurrences. It seems every time we are coming off a rest day, so is our opponent. What is up with this?
Going to lump these two together. It does feel like the Yankees have had fewer midweek getaway days this year, and I count only four (!) on the schedule the rest of the season. My guess is the Yankees have fewer midweek getaway days than most teams each year because they’re a great draw, and teams (including the Yankees themselves) want the biggest crowd when they’re in town. You get those in night games, not day games. The CBA has getaway day requirements based on travel, but it seems like whenever teams can avoid scheduling one with the Yankees, they do it.
As for opposing teams having an off-day leading into a series with the Yankees, I did not realize that, and it is annoying. Why does the opponent get to start a series with a rested bullpen and rested players in general??? I don’t think there’s anything to this though. Just a quirk of the schedule, as annoying as it is. Trust me, MLB is not trying to stack the deck against the Yankees. They are still the sport’s biggest draw. If anything, the league would be trying to help the Yankees, not hurt them with scheduling, biased umpiring, etc. I guess the Yankees just got saddled with a crap schedule in terms of getaway days and opponents have an off-day leading into a series this season.
Danny asks: Can you provide some context for contact rates, in zone contact rates and chase rates, i.e. what's average, unplayable, elite? Those stats have grown in importance for evaluating prospects and whether a MLB player's performance is sustainable. It seems like a more granular version of BB and SO percentages. Thanks.
I need to do a better job providing context for the stats I use. We had a Guide to Stats at RAB, though it is very old and needs an update. Would it be worthwhile to have something like that here? That’s probably an offseason project. Things are about to get really busy with the draft, All-Star Game, and trade deadline coming up. I’ll put an updated Guide to Stats on my to-do list.
Here are the league averages for the plate discipline stats Danny asked about:
Out of zone swing rate is chase rate. Out of zone contact rate is a weird one because making contact on pitches out of the zone is not necessarily good. It is good to be able to foul away pitchers’ pitchers to extend an at-bat. It’s generally bad to put pitches out of the zone in play though, because those typically lead to weak contact and poor results. You’re reaching for a pitch away, getting jammed, etc.
Pitches in zone: .277 AVG and .463 SLG (.338 xwOBA)
Pitches out of zone: .150 AVG and .203 SLG (.302 xwOBA)
There are always exceptions to these numbers. Aaron Judge’s overall contact rate has been in the 65% to 70% range just about every year of his career (66.5% this year), and it hasn’t held him back. Juan Soto’s in-zone (54.6%) and overall (34.9%) swing rates have always been very low, but he makes it work. Chase rate and in-zone swing rate are the big ones. Generally speaking, low chase rate + high in-zone swing rate = good. (In the most basic terms, that’s what SEAGER measures.)
These are big picture league averages. We can break these down further by pitch type. For example, the league average chase rate on fastballs is 23.5%. The overall contact rate 81.1%. For breaking balls, it’s 30.5% chase and 67.8% contact. We can continue going deeper and deeper. This stuff will make your head spin at times. The big picture numbers are good enough for our purposes most of the time.
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Comments
John G
Males up for the bad weekend series
ramez hanna
Devers is out of American league, time to celebrate
Art Vandelay
Mike - I hear ya about Escarra but he’s been behind the dish in all four of the 1-0 wins. Coincidence?
