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July 4th, 2025: Blue Jays Series, Judge, Schmidt, Mailbag
🕑 Added 2025-07-04 10:00:11 +0000 UTCHeads up: It will likely be a short post Tuesday. It’s Fourth of July weekend, plus the week after next will be very busy between midseason grades, the draft, and whatever else. Then the trade deadline is two weeks after that. I’m gonna take it easy this weekend while I can. I’ll be on any breaking news, otherwise I’m keeping it short Tuesday and will lay low during the holiday weekend. Thanks as always for reading and your support. Let’s now get to today’s post.
1. Weekday thoughts. For the first time ever, the Yankees have been swept in a four-game series in Toronto. History with an exclamation point. Yet another no-show against a division rival puts the Yankees at 10-16 against the AL East this year, and in (a tie for) second place. The annual summer swoon is well underway. This one feels more lethargic than usual, though maybe I’m wrong. Here are a few thoughts on the last few days.
Swept in Toronto
That series was the most painful thing I’ve experienced in quite some time, and I passed a kidney stone last weekend. All the Yankees had to do to stay in first place was not get swept. I guess that was a bridge too far. Four games, four losses, and the Yankees lost them every which way:
Monday: Led 2-0 in the fifth, bullpen melted down in the sixth, one-run loss.
Tuesday: Led 2-0 in the fourth, bullpen melted down, seven-run loss.
Wednesday: Down 8-0 in the fourth, rallied to tie 9-9, lost by two runs anyway.
Thursday: Regular old 8-5 loss. One team had a way easier time scoring than the other.
Wednesday could have been and should have been the signature win of the year with a signature Aaron Judge homer, but of course the Yankees lost. They always seem to lose when Judge hits a clutch homer, like the one he hit off Garrett Crochet a few weeks back. The team that never comes back came back from down 8-0 (!), and then lost anyway. What a deflating, but also predictable, outcome.
The game-losing run Wednesday scored on a walk, a first-pitch stolen base, an aggressive tag up on a fly ball, and a wild pitch. It’s the kind of run the Yankees don’t score very often, and not because they lack the personnel. They spent all offseason talking about the need to get more athletic and speedy, and they did that, for the most part. They just don’t use that athleticism and speed as much as they could.
Stolen bases: 14th in MLB
SB success rate: 21st in MLB
SB attempts: 16th in MLB
SB attempt rate: 18th in MLB
Those middle of the pack numbers are a big improvement from last year, but when Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Jasson Domínguez are on base in the seventh inning of a one-run game, and they don’t run, and Anthony Volpe follows with a double play, yeah, it’s frustrating. Maybe I’m just venting and off base. I think we can all agree there frequently are obvious stolen base situations in which the Yankees don’t run though.
As always, the Yankees shot themselves in the foot defensively. Chisholm made a throwing error with two outs Tuesday, extending the inning, and two batters later Max Fried gave up a three-run homer. Fried’s been awesome this year but he is not blameless. Walking literally Myles Straw and giving up a left-on-left homer to Andrés Giménez is weak, man. It was Giménez’s 11th left-on-left homer in six big league seasons.
A few innings later J.C. Escarra had a very costly catcher interference, turning a would-be strike three into a bases loaded, one out situation. The next batter singled and the batter after that grand slammed, and that was that. Escarra has three catcher interferences this year, the most in baseball despite ranking 54th in innings caught. He has more catcher interferences than 25 teams. I know scooting up a bit helps with framing, but Escarra’s setting up in the hitter’s back pocket:
Carlos Rodón was the only starter to have a representative start in Toronto, and he needed 96 pitches to get through five innings. Clarke Schmidt’s hurt again, Marcus Stroman is Marcus Stroman, and there’s just no depth beyond that. The Yankees are going to have to take on a lot of salary to get what they need at the trade deadline, because they don’t have enough tradable prospects to get it otherwise.
The bullpen, what a disaster, and I say that as someone who I loved Aaron Boone going to Devin Williams in the eighth inning Wednesday. He’s been their best reliever the last six weeks or so, he hadn’t pitched much lately (one appearance in the previous seven days), and everyone else in the bullpen was worn down or a gas can, or both. Williams was the right move. It didn’t work out because he issued his first walk since May 25th, and the Blue Jays ran their way to a win.
Mark Leiter Jr. has great peripherals (29.7 K% and 49.5 GB%) but I will never trust him. Luke Weaver has allowed five homers in his last nine appearances wrapped around the hamstring injury. Jonathan Loáisiga has a case of dingeritis too. The bullpen is too homogeneous. You’ve got a lefty who doesn’t miss bats, Loáisiga whenever he's healthy, and then a bunch of similar changeup/splitter guys. How a smart team with designs on the World Series put velocity on the back-burner, I will never understand.
There are things about this team that have to change. First and foremost, the Yankees have put Chisholm back at second base, and if DJ LeMahieu can’t make throws from third, then he needs to ride the bench or come off the roster. The downgrade from LeMahieu’s bat to Oswald Peraza’s won’t be nearly as big as the defensive upgrade at two positions. The Yankees have to get better at catching the ball, period, and Jazz at second with Peraza at third is the best defensive alignment they have available to them.
Second, Paul Goldschmidt, a .234/.290/.333 (76 wRC+) hitter against righties this year and .234/.283/.375 (84 wRC+) the last two years, can’t start against righties, even righties with reverse splits (they are still righties, after all). Ben Rice hasn’t hit lefties (.167/.215/.417 and 70 wRC+). The first base platoon couldn’t be more natural. The Yankees have cut back on Goldschmidt’s playing time against righties a bit since Giancarlo Stanton returned, but it’s time to go all the way in with an outright platoon.
And third, Judge has to bat second, not third. He has 42 starts at second and 44 at third. Forget about the whole “Judge is left on deck when a rally dies” thing. The Yankees are leaving at-bats for the best hitter in the world on the table. League-wide, the No. 2 lineup spot gets one extra plate appearance than the No. 3 spot every 12 games, on average. That one extra Judge plate appearance every 12 games can have a huge impact. He’s that good and the AL East race is that close.
Three things that can be addressed and put into action today, but I think we all know they won’t. These summer swoons are nothing new and the last few years tell us the Yankees will ride it out, add pieces at the trade deadline, and wait for the switch to flip. One of these years it won’t flip and that will suck. I hope it’s not this year. I don’t think it will be, but they play a dangerous game when they stick to the status quo and wait, wait, and wait some more.
The Yankees were seven up in the AL East and four up on a Wild Card Series bye on May 28th. Now they’re one back in the division and four back of a bye. It turned quick, and it can turn the other way just as quick. There’s a lot of season left. But also, I don’t really want to hear it right now? The Yankees just played a team chasing them and got the shit kicked out of them for four games. They’re 6-14 in their last 20 games and there are issues, some long-standing (i.e. third base), up and down the roster.
Things are coming apart at the seams. Another starter’s hurt, the bullpen is full of a liabilities, the offense couldn’t get a runner home from second if you gave them five outs, and they’re just stupid. It’s a stupid team with a stupid manager that does stupid things on the bases and stupid things in the field. The Yankees are in second place because they deserve to be. With the way they’re going, they’ll be in third place before we speak again.
Miscellany
Judge’s slump is officially over – he went 6-for-10 with two doubles and a homer in Toronto – and the Blue Jays intentionally walked him five times in four games. It’s the most times a Yankee has ever been intentionally walked in a series of any length. He’s up to 23 intentional walks this year, the third most in a single season in franchise history. Only six times in Yankees history has a player been intentionally walked 20 times. Judge is going to obliterate the team record.
1. Babe Ruth: 28 in 1924
2. Mickey Mantle: 23 in 1957
3. Aaron Judge: 23 in 2025 (and counting)
4. Joe DiMaggio: 21 in 1941
5. Lou Gehrig: 21 in 1935
6. Aaron Judge: 20 in 2024
Prince Fielder in 2011 was the last player to get intentionally walked 30 times in a season. Judge might get there by the end of the month. As the games increase in importance, more teams are going to take the bat right out of his hands … Will Warren with a strong contender for the worst pitch in baseball history Wednesday night. He put an 86.6 mph first pitch changeup to Addison Barger here:
Three-run homer, seven-run first inning, game over (after the spirited comeback). Just save us all some time and put it on a tee next time, Will. Warren has been solid more often than not the last six weeks or so, but geez, when he’s bad, he’s really bad … I was glad to see Stanton turn around a hanging breaking ball for his first home run of the season Wednesday. The Blue Jays really bullied him with fastballs, and Stanton’s had more trouble with velocity the last few years, which is normal for players his age. Punishing mistake secondaries will be his meal ticket moving forward … How many more homers must Tim Hill give up to righties before Boone learns? Wednesday’s to Davis Schneider was the fifth Hill has allowed in 77 plate appearances against righties. He didn’t even have to face Schneider! He’d faced his three batters. Schneider is in the big leagues to hit lefties, that’s all he does, and Boone let him face a lefty in a one-run game. Ridiculous … Why was Clayton Beeter the first guy out of the bullpen in the fourth inning of a tie game when you desperately need a win? He’s a last guy out of the bullpen type. He comes in when you have no one else. Go to your leverage arms in that spot (to be fair, they all stink), try to keep it close, and figure out the rest of the game later. Loáisiga, Leiter, and Weaver all pitched anyway, only with the Yankees trailing because Beeter gave up a three-spot rather than trying to keep the score tied. Boone is such a liability, man. Does he ever put his team in the best position to succeed? A true ceiling lowerer.
Injury updates
Luis Gil (lat) had his latest live BP pushed back a few days because his wife had a baby. He threw two innings and 35 pitches Thursday and could start a rehab assignment next week … Schmidt exited Thursday’s game with the dreaded forearm tightness after 55 pitches. The recovery for that ranges from the minimum 15 days to Tommy John surgery. He’ll have tests later today. We’ll see what it is when we see what it is … Ryan Yarbrough (oblique) is not throwing yet. He’s still shut down. It’s only been 12 days since he went on the injured list, so that’s not too surprising … Trent Grisham (hamstring) and Austin Wells (finger) both came off the bench Wednesday and were back in the starting lineup Thursday, so it seems the Yankees avoided anything major there. Wells’ circulatory issue does worry me a bit though. He said he has a damaged artery in his left hand. I’m no doctor, but that sounds bad.
Up next
A real clash of the titans at Citi Field. The Yankees are 6-14 in their last 20 games and the Mets are 5-14 in their last 19 games. Doing New York sports proud, these two are. The good news is we somehow avoided national television this weekend. Here’s the schedule:
Friday at Mets: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Justin Hagenman (3pm ET on YES, SNY, MLB)
Saturday at Mets: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Frankie Montas (4pm ET on YES, SNY, FS1)
Sunday at Mets: LHP Max Fried vs. LHP Brandon Waddell (1:30pm ET on YES, SNY)
Monday: off-day
The Yankees were supposed to see old pal Clay Holmes on Sunday, but his start got rained out Tuesday, and he pitched the first game of their doubleheader Wednesday. That pushed him out of the Subway Series. On paper, the Yankees have a massive starting pitching advantage this weekend. Can't wait for them to waste it.
An afternoon game on the Fourth of July means no postgame fireworks. Weird scheduling. Anyway, the Mets’ season has been the inverse of Juan Soto’s. When he was performing below expectations earlier in the year, they were winning. Now that he’s annihilating the ball – .313/.472/.688 (218 wRC+) since June 1st – they’re losing. Clubhouse cancer that guy, I tell ya.
The Yankees are home for the rest of the first half. They won’t leave New York again until the series after the All-Star break in two weeks. It’s not the easiest schedule (Mets, Mariners, Cubs), but these dipshits need to stack some wins before the midseason mini-vacation.
2. 2025 draft prospect: Florida HS RHP Aaron Watson. The 2025 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 39 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I like for whatever reason. We’re covering a little of everything.
Watson, 18, is an arrow up prospect who’s put himself in the late first/early second round mix. He really jumped onto the radar in showcases last summer, which included a 10-strikeout performance at the National High School Invitational, and he’s built on that momentum this spring. Here’s where Watson finds himself in the latest draft prospect rankings:
Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 64
ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 36
FanGraphs: Unranked
MLB Pipeline: No. 45
Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 45
The Yankees have not selected a high school pitcher in the first two rounds since Matt Sauer in 2017 and normally I wouldn’t bother writing one up, but Carlos Collazo (subs. req’d) says it “sounds like New York might be one of the teams kicking the tires” on Watson, so I might as well get to him. Here’s video and here’s what MLB Pipeline’s free scouting report says:
Because of his feel for pitching, the 6-foot-5 Watson has a pretty high floor and it's not difficult to imagine a higher ceiling as he adds strength to that frame. He's typically in the low-90s with his fastball, but has been up to 95 mph with more consistent velocity to come. He throws his heater with good sink, getting a lot of ground-ball outs, and complements it with a pair of very effective secondary offerings which flash above-average. He made the switch from curve to slider and can miss bats with his 78-82 mph breaker. He has feel for his mid-80s split changeup, though he doesn't throw it often … Watson's stuff all plays up because he can really command all three offerings in the zone, repeating his delivery well despite his size.
Look, I’m a big dumb idiot who knows nothing about anything, but Watson is my kinda pitching prospect. It is really easy (relatively speaking) to improve stuff these days. Add velocity, add a pitch, tweak an existing pitch, etc. Get the guys who can command the ball, go to work on the pitch shapes, profit. Watson has a solid foundation and you don’t have to try hard to see room for improvement.
Watson recently switched his commitment from Virginia to Florida and that’s notable because it can be difficult to sign players away from Virginia. No such issue exists with the Gators. The Yankees have the smallest bonus pool ($5.73M with the 5% overage) and the No. 39 pick is slotted for $2.51M. They could stretch that to $3M or maybe even $3.5M, but yeah, winning a bidding war vs. Virginia might’ve been tough. Now it’s a non-issue.
3. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees signed glove-only infielder Nicky Lopez to a minor league deal, per Robert Murray. Lopez is a very good defender at the three non-first base infield positions, but he can’t hit at all (career 72 wRC+), and is in no way a third base solution. He’s just depth in case there’s an injury or if the Yankees trade Oswald Peraza and need a new backup infielder. The Yankees are Lopez’s fourth organization of 2025 (Cubs, Angels, Diamondbacks) and I assume his minor league contract includes an opt out in a few weeks … The Dodgers claimed utility man CJ Alexander off waivers the other day. He was DFAed to open a 40-man roster spot for Geoff Hartlieb earlier this week. Alexander spent four weeks in the organization between waiver claims and went 9-for-53 (.170) with 16 strikeouts in Triple-A. This has been your final CJ Alexander update … Phase 2 of the fan voting is complete and neither Paul Goldschmidt nor Ben Rice will join Aaron Judge in the AL’s All-Star Game starting lineup. They lost the voting to Vlad Guerrero Jr. and Ryan O’Hearn, respectively. Here are the All-Star starters. The rest of the rosters will be revealed Sunday, with replacements then trickling over the next week. I'm guessing Max Fried and Carlos Rodón join Judge in Atlanta … And finally, Anthony Seigler is a big leaguer. The Brewers called up the Yankees' 2018 first round pick earlier this week after he hit .277/.416/.465 (142 wRC+) in 63 Triple-A games. He’s a part-time infielder/part-time catcher now after the Yankees moved him out from behind the plate and turned him into a full-time second baseman midway through 2023. Seigler started both ends of Wednesday’s doubleheader against the Mets at third base, and went 1-for-6. Here’s his first MLB hit. Good for him.
Mailbag Questions of the Week
Bill asks: Everyone talks about missing out on Harper but was not getting machado when he was a free agent the bigger miss? Yankees have had a terrible revolving door of 3rd baseman since arod and machado is in year 7 of his deal and is the starting 3rd baseman in the all star game
Colin asks: The Yankees would never take on his contract, nor should they, but as a thought exercise what might a Manny Machado trade look like? Assuming the Padres were looking to get out from under (most) of his contract.
Two Machado questions this week, so I will lump them together. To start with Bill’s question, I was definitely a Bryce Harper guy at the time, though I acknowledge Machado made more sense for the roster back then. The Yankees were pretty deep in the outfield, and while we all loved Miguel Andujar coming out of his AL Rookie of the Year runner-up season in 2018, he was no Machado. I love Harper, that dude was born to wear pinstripes and would have been a franchise legend, but Machado did fit the roster better at the time and moving forward.
As for a possible trade, Machado has eight years and $266M remaining on his contract. Next year will be his age 33 season. There are three recent trades that serve as guideposts here:
Nolan Arenado: Traded entering his age 30 season with six years and $199M remaining on his contract. St. Louis had to add a one-year, $15M extension to get him to waive his no-trade clause, and the Rockies ate $51M.
Rafael Devers: Traded before his age 29 season with eight years and $238.5M remaining on his contract. The Red Sox had to take Jordan Hicks’ $24M back to offset salary.
Giancarlo Stanton: Traded entering age 28 season with 10 years and $295M remaining on his contract. The Marlins ate $30M and had to take Starlin Castro’s $22M back to offset salary.
Arenado and Stanton were traded for spare parts. They used their no-trade protection to direct themselves to the team they wanted to join, limiting their former team’s leverage. That was reflected in the asking price. Devers did not have any no-trade protection, though the Red Sox did not shop him, reportedly. They got much more in return for him than the Rockies and Marlins did for Arenado and Stanton, though it still wasn’t a knockout haul. That much money always drives the price down.
Machado’s having another stellar season: .289/.351/.471 (132 wRC+) with 13 homers and his usual silky smooth defense. This is already his seventh (!) season with the Padres. He has full no-trade protection through his 10-and-5 rights, and I assume he would be willing to waive it to join the Yankees. If the Padres are looking to unload most or all of that $266M, then the model here is the Arenado or Stanton trade, where the trade return is a bunch of Grade C pieces and nothing impactful.
DJ LeMahieu’s a 10-and-5 guy and there’s no reason to think he will waive it. So, realistically, the only two salary offset pieces the Yankees have are Cody Bellinger and Marcus Stroman, and they need Bellinger. Does Stroman plus two players like, say, Everson Pereira (the Padres badly need a left fielder) and J.C. Escarra (they also need a catcher) get it done? That might even be too much. Recent blockbuster trades involving stars owed huge money tell us it shouldn’t take much more than that to get Machado.
Joe asks: Does Jazz hitting this well free up Bellinger to lead off? Or with Dominguez putting together good at bats with little power does he make sense as the lead off guy? What do you think is behind his lack of power so far when that was thought to be his carrying tool?
Why not just put Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the leadoff spot? He’s second on the Yankees in pitches per plate appearance (behind Trent Grisham) and third in walk rate (behind Aaron Judge and Grisham), he’s their top stolen base threat (though he hasn’t attempted a steal since June 10th in Kansas City), and he can give you a quick 1-0 lead with a leadoff homer. Go Jazz-Judge in the 1-2 spots and give your two best hitters the most at-bats. I’m down with it. Let’s try it.
Domínguez’s lack of power (six homers in 278 plate appearances, and three of the six came in one game) is tied to his lack of pulled fly balls. Here are this batted ball rates as a left-handed hitter only (his strong side):
Grounders: 45.6% (MLB average: 44.3%)
Pulled air: 14.0% (MLB average: 16.6%)
Middle air: 18.4% (MLB average: 19.7%)
Opposite air: 21.9% (MLB average: 19.3%)
As a left-handed hitter, that’s too many fly balls and line drives to left and center fields, and not enough pulled to right field. Domínguez is running a strong 54.4% hard-hit rate as a lefty. Driving the ball isn’t the issue. He’s just driving it to the wrong part of the park, and especially the wrong part of Yankee Stadium. With any luck, this will be something he irons out with more experience/regular playing time.
Domínguez is a pretty good count-worker and that makes him a good leadoff candidate, though I think I would stick with him lower in the order for now. He has enough on his plate trying to find his way at the MLB level. Cody Bellinger swings a ton and is a league average walk rate guy. I think the Yankees would be best with Jazz leading off, Judge hitting behind him, Bellinger driving those two in, and Jasson hitting lower in the order.
Kyle asks: Gary Phillips published an interesting story over the weekend with details about Devin Williams calling his own pitches with the PitchCom keypad. He started doing it after his demotion from the closer role (I guess sometime around the end of April or beginning of May). The story also points out that Max Fried calls his own pitches as well more for pitch clock reasons than anything else. What do you think about the idea that in the pitch clock era it is an advantage for the pitcher to call pitches rather than the catcher? Would it be a good idea for the yankees to try and develop the "calling your own game with pitchcom" skill with pitching prospects in the minors?
I think this is one of those things that should be up to the pitcher, at least to some extent. If the guy keeps calling the wrong pitches based on the situation, then you can’t let it continue, but if he’s more comfortable calling his own pitches, let him. And if he’s happy to let the catcher lead the way, that works too. I think it would be good to help pitchers grow comfortable calling their own game in the minors, it can help them learn about pitch sequencing and things like that, but I would let the pitcher dictate this. He’s the guy on the mound throwing the pitch. If he’s more comfortable calling his own game, I say let him (as long as he doesn’t keep screwing up). If he’d rather let the catcher handle it, that’s cool too.
Frank asks: Im currently down the rabbit hole and im wondering, which of the former big 3 (joba, kennedy, hughes) would have benefited from the yankees current state of pitching development? I also wish they had kept joba in the bullpen.
I don’t think it would have been Joba Chamberlain, who didn’t lack stuff. He had injuries and, while the Yankee jerked him around, Joba didn’t do himself any favors by showing up to Spring Training in what I’ll call less than tip top shape a few times. Ian Kennedy had a 17-year career as a league average starter, sometimes better than that. Maybe modern pitch design gets him over the hump and into All-Star range?
Phil Hughes was the one who jumped to mind because he had such a hard time developing a reliable breaking ball and a reliable changeup. They came and went, but nothing really stuck. Hughes could command the ball (career 5.7 BB%). Improving his stuff through pitch design and all that could’ve unlocked a new level for him. I’ll say Hughes, Kennedy, and Joba in that order would have most benefited from all the things teams can do with pitchers nowadays.
Tucker asks: The Yankees clearly have a great reputation for pitching development and Matt Blake is right at the center of that. Do you have a sense for what impact his potential departure would have? I.e. is there enough institutional knowledge within the organization at this point to withstand that loss?
Blake’s contract is up after this season, though Brendan Kuty (subs. req’d) reported the Yankees hold a club option for 2026, and I assume they will pick that up. I say this every time we have a Matt Blake discussion: He is a very important part of the pitching apparatus, but he is one cog in the machine, and there are many more people in the organization who make it all happen. Senior Director of Pitching Sam Briend heads up pitcher development in the minors with pitching coordinator Brett DeGagne his top lieutenant. Then there are all the minor league pitching coaches who are more hands-on with the players. Blake will be the first to tell you it is not a one-man job. Is there enough institutional knowledge to withstand losing him? I can’t really say, but I doubt it’ll all fall apart if he leaves. There are so, so many people who make it all tick.
Mike asks: I looked at the AAA numbers to see about bullpen help and Reyzelman has 34 walks in 30 innings! What’s happening there?
He’s up to 36 walks in 31.2 innings now. There’s a lot going on with Eric Reyzelman. He was never a control artist to start with (12.3 BB% during his breakout 2024), so going over the deep end walk-wise in Triple-A isn’t the most shocking thing in the world. More importantly, his stuff is down. His fastball is averaging 94.0 mph in Triple-A and he’s topped out at 97.7 mph, south of the 99s he showed last year. His sweeper has been in the upper 70s and that’s few ticks below normal sweeper velocity. Reyzelman’s had a lot of injuries, mostly back stuff, and his track record of showing high-octane stuff is the 38.2 innings he threw when healthy last year. The current version of Reyzelman is nowhere close to helping the Yankees and not only because he’s walking more than a batter an inning. The stuff is just ordinary now.
David asks: I know a few weeks ago you included a stat where Volpe was 3rd in total runners on base. Has that changed in the last month? Where does he rank with runners left on base? It feels like he’s left more than the population of a small village on the base paths. How do the Yankees address his failure to bring them around?
I’m running out of patience with Anthony Volpe. I understand he’s the best shortstop in the organization (and not by a little either), but the lack of progress is extremely frustrating, and that's putting it lightly. He’s hitting .217/.290/.370 (85 wRC+) since May 1st, exactly the hitter he was from 2023-24 (.228/.288/.373 and 85 wRC+), plus his defense has slipped according to the numbers and the eye test, and he doesn’t steal bases anymore. There is no chance – zero – this is the player the Yankees thought Volpe would be three years and 1,600 plate appearances into his career. But I digress.
Going into Thursday, Volpe was still third in runners on base behind Pete Alonso and Matt Olson. He also leads baseball in runners left on base, just ahead of Julio Rodríguez and Nick Castellanos. Left on base is a finicky stat that needs context because not scoring a runner from third with less than two outs is much different than leaving a runner at first with two outs, etc. The very simple version: Volpe has driven in 14.3% of runners this year, which is almost exactly the league average (14.0%). He’s batted with a lot of runners on base and he’s driven in those runners at a league average rate.
How do the Yankees address this? By moving Volpe down in the lineup and getting a better hitter to hit in that fifth/sixth spot. Batting with a lot of runners on base is not a skill. It is a function of where the player hits in the lineup and who is hitting ahead of him. Volpe is third in runners on base because he’s hit behind Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, and the Yankees' other top hitters all year. So, go trade for a bat and put that player behind those guys, and move Volpe down. The core problem is Volpe is not a good hitter, not that he’s not a good hitter with runners on base. Fix the former and the latter will take care of itself.
Steve asks: Will Schmidt or Warren (or anyone else) be impacted by innings limits this year? Feels like their testing between starts has replaced a hard innings limit. Is it the same for the minor league pitchers as well?
Hard innings limits are no longer a thing. Teams monitor velocity, arm angle, extension, all that cool stuff they can measure now for signs of fatigue, then adjust. The days of setting a pitcher’s workload limit at 30 innings above the previous year are way over. For us outsiders, innings are a decent enough proxy to get an estimate of when a pitcher is entering the danger zone, and will need his workload scaled back.
We have to see what Clarke Schmidt's outlook is now that he's dealing with forearm trouble. He's at 86 innings this year between MLB and his rehab assignment. He threw 108. 2 innings last year and his career high is the 159 innings he threw in 2023. Before the forearm thing, I would have said Schmidt seems to be in good shape to pitch deep into October. Now? Who knows. Here are two other notables:
Will Warren: 84.1 IP in 2025. Career high is 132.1 IP in 2024, and he threw 129 innings in both 2022 and 2023. Warren has been very durable as a pro and has a good innings base underneath him. He should be a-okay to pitch all year and in the postseason, if needed.
Cam Schlittler: 76.2 IP in 2025. Career high is 120.2 IP in 2024. He was limited to 46 innings by an injury in 2023. Schlittler is a big strong dude (6-foot-6 and 225 lbs.) who hasn’t had any injury trouble since 2023. He looks to be in good shape to pitch all year.
The rest of the rotation depth options (Allan Winans, Carlos Carrasco, Ryan Yarbrough, etc.) are veterans you don’t need to worry about workload-wise. I mean, you have to take care of them if they show red flags, but they’re not gonna get shut down at some point. From where I sit, it looks like Schlittler, Schmidt, and Warren are positioned nicely to help the Yankees all season. I don’t think we have any major workload issues to worry about, unlike Luis Gil last year.
Brian asks: I saw this chart where the Yankees are dead last in OPS in extra innings. SSS is obvious caveat here, but they collectively are the absolute worst hitter in the league once the scoreboard rolls over to the 10th inning. There isn't even a question here it's just incredibly annoying.
As a team, the Yankees are hitting .063/.205/.063 (-38 wRC+, yes, minus-38) in 40 extra-inning plate appearances this season. They’re last in everything except OBP, where only the Reds (.182) are worse. Take away Aaron Judge’s intentional walks, and the Yankees have a .135 OBP in extra innings. Incredible incompetence. Nothing further to add. I am annoyed just like Brian and I’m sure all of you are too.
Matthew asks: If the Rays make the playoffs this year, or the A's in the next couple seasons, will MLB actually have playoff games in a minor league stadium? What are the alternatives?
They definitely won’t play postseason games in minor league parks. MLB will move the game to whatever big league stadium makes the most sense because greater capacity equals more tickets, and that equals more revenue. The MLBPA will agree to it too because the players’ share of postseason money is based on gate revenue. They want the biggest crowds possible. Plus playing marquee games in a minor league stadium would be a terrible look for the league. For the Rays this year, I guess they would move their postseason games to Miami? Or maybe Atlanta with the Braves going down in flames? Texas might be their best bet if the Rangers don’t make it. Globe Life Field is more likely to sell out than loanDepot Park in Miami, plus there’s a roof, so no potential weather issues, unlike Atlanta.
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
Will
It’s gonna be an unpopular opinion, but I don’t think Cashman deserves a ton of blame. He’s hamstrung by Hal above him holding the purse strings, and the manager below him doing stupid things. Sure, there are obvious gaps in the roster, but each season that roster shows they *can* perform well for 2 months, then regress to mediocre after that. I don’t think it’s the GM’s fault that a bunch of talented guys turn into pumpkins once the calendar turns to June and the rest of the league makes adjustments. I think it’s on the coaches for not being able to properly maintain that talent.
Will
I enjoyed reading this article during the first inning of today’s game, then looking at the score to see Dominguez hit a hr in the lead off spot, then Soto tied it with a dinger of his own.
Alex G
Cashman has zero idea how to build a organization or MLB roster, especially when he isn’t gifted George Steinbrenner’s unlimited pocket books. Boone is the worst manager in baseball who not a single other team would employ. It is fucking tragic that they still both have jobs.
