RAB Thoughts
patreon
July 8th, 2025: Bellinger, Bullpen, Schlittler, Candelario
🕑 Added 2025-07-08 10:00:08 +0000 UTCMax Fried and Jazz Chisholm Jr. will join Aaron Judge at the All-Star Game next week. Fried was a lock. I figured missing a month would take Jazz out of the running, but there are like 2.5 good infielders in the AL right now, so he made it. Fried was voted in by the players. Chisholm was a commissioner’s office pick. Carlos Rodón could sneak onto the roster as pitchers are replaced in the coming days. The Yankees have had multiple All-Stars every year since 1992, when Roberto Kelly was their lone representative. It is far and away the longest streak of multiple All-Stars in baseball. The next longest streak belongs to the Dodgers. They last had one All-Star in 2013 (Clayton Kershaw). Here are the full All-Star rosters, here’s what I wrote about Clarke Schmidt’s injury, and here now is today’s post. I know I said today’s post would be shorter than usual, but this stupid team keeps giving me things to write about.
1. Weekend thoughts. Here’s a thing I did not realize until after Sunday’s win: The Yankees were 1-11 in their previous 12 road games. The one win was the series finale in Cincinnati two weeks ago, when Jazz Chisholm Jr. hit a homer and had words with Jose Trevino. It was the first time the Yankees lost 11 times in a span of 12 road games since 1995. They also had a 1-11 stretch on the road in 1991 and 1990, and that’s it. Those are the only times they’ve done it since the Highlanders became the Yankees in 1913. Not the kinda history you want to make, fellas. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.
Saved by the Belli
Where were you when Cody Bellinger made a season-saving catch Sunday? I’m not even sure that’s hyperbole. Given the standings, the losing streak, the shaky bullpen, the game situation, and everything else going on with the Yankees right now, Bellinger’s sensational shoestring catch-turned-double play (video) was the defensive play of the Yankees’ season so far. Is there even an argument otherwise?
“It was definitely a tough play. Those ones are low and kinda hard to read,” Bellinger told Bryan Hoch. “But in that moment, I felt like I could go get it. It was going to be a close play. I had a good beat on it, a good jump. I was just glad I was able to get it before it hit the ground.”
Chisholm told Hoch the “throw was even more impressive” than the catch, and I felt that way watching it live. The throw was on a line, right over Francisco Lindor’s shoulder, and straight to Paul Goldschmidt at first base. Bellinger pitched in high school and there were a few teams that liked him more on the mound than as a position player going into the 2013 draft. The whole hitting thing worked out for him though.
Let’s put some numbers on this. Bellinger made the play with Lindor on first and no outs in the seventh, and with the Yankees nursing a 6-4 lead. Here are the win probability numbers:
Bellinger turns the double play (what actually happened): 86.3%
Bellinger pulls up, plays it on a hop, Mets have runners on first and second with no outs: 62.3%
Bellinger whiffs, the ball rolls to the wall, Lindor scores, Juan Soto stops at second with no outs: 47.0%
That’s a 39.3 percentage point swing between what actually happened and the worst case scenario (Bellinger whiffing on the catch). It’s a 24.0 percentage point swing between what happened and the safe play (playing the hop and holding the runners to one base). Also, win probability lacks context. It doesn’t know the bullpen stinks and that Pete Alonso was the next batter. So yeah, it was a potentially dire situation.
Bellinger had a really bad April (.204/.281/.357 and 77 wRC+), but he’s hitting .303/.354/.518 (144 wRC+) with an 11.4 K% since May 1st, and he’s doing it while playing good to great defense in all three outfield spots. He even started a game at first base this past weekend. I thought there would be more homers with the move to Yankee Stadium, but that’s nitpicking. Bellinger’s been fantastic, especially the last two months. Sunday’s double play was the play of the season and it was desperately needed. Big time player making big times plays.
A bad bullpen is no way to go through life
For the first time since 2000, the Yankees have two six-game losing streaks in one season, and they’ve come in the span of a month. Sunday’s win avoided the Subway Series sweep and also snapped a five-game losing streak at Citi Field. Before Sunday, the last time the Yankees won a game in Queens, Max Scherzer started for the Mets, Jake Bauers hit leadoff for the Yankees, and Mike King got the save. Here’s the box score. Feels like a lifetime ago.
Last month’s six-game losing streak was on the offense. The Yankees allowed 16 runs in the six games, the first time a team allowed 16 or fewer runs in a six-game losing streak since the Braves in September 1988. This most recent six-game losing streak was on the pitching. The Yankees scored 4, 5, 9, 5, 5, and 6 runs in the six games. That’s enough to win a few games. It was the first time a team scored at least 34 runs during a six-game losing streak since the Cubs in April 2019. Yuck.
The rotation wasn’t good during the losing streak. Even Max Fried and Carlos Rodón have been less than dominant lately. The bullpen is the primary culprit though. It neither protected leads nor kept deficits close before doing the job Sunday. The bullpen was charged with at least three runs in each of the six losses, and a reliever took the loss in each of the first five games of the losing streak. It is the first time in franchise history the bullpen took the loss in five straight games. At one point the bullpen allowed at least three runs in seven straight games. That’s another franchise first.
Luke Weaver’s post-hamstring injury struggles continued Friday when he served up the game-losing homer to Jeff McNeil. It was the third straight appearance with a homer for Weaver, and the sixth homer he’s given up in his last 10 appearances. Has he been bad since the injury? Yes. Does his dingeritis predate the injury? Also yes. Weaver had a three shaky outings right before going on the shelf, you may recall:
Perhaps the hamstring was bugging Weaver longer than he let on. Perhaps the clock has struck midnight, and the guy who was a replacement level pitcher prior to 2024 has gone back to being replacement level. I don’t think that’s the case, or at least I hope it’s not. For now, Weaver has to get it together. The Yankees will sit through weeks of poor performance before demoting a guy out of high leverage situations.
I’m more than happy to blame Aaron Boone for things, and he’s made questionable bullpen moves during this stretch, but it’s not like he’s flush with good options. At some point the players just have to play better. Weaver has to stop giving up home runs. Jonathan Loáisiga has to strand an inherited runner once in a while (four of seven have scored in his last six games). Mark Leiter Jr. has to rediscover strikeouts (four strikeouts in his last 32 batters faced). These guys just have to be better. The damage they've caused is real:
The offense has been really good of late. Bellinger’s been awesome, Aaron Judge is Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham has started hitting again, Jasson Domínguez is heating up, etc. The runs are there. The rotation is very thin now that Clarke Schmidt is hurt, and that will have to be addressed at the trade deadline. With any luck, Cam Schlittler will give the rotation a shot in the arm this week. It is needed.
The bullpen though, it is at DEFCON 1. It’s a major issue. Three times during the six-game losing streak the Yankees had the lead or the score was tied in the sixth inning or later. Similar to the offense-less six-game losing streak a few weeks ago, the Yankees were in just about every game. Get competent bullpen work and we’re singing a different tune. The bullpen has let winnable games slip away all season, and especially lately. Relief help was already a deadline priority. It might be the top priority now.
On pinch-hitting for Volpe
Anthony Volpe was removed for a pinch-hitter leading off the ninth inning Friday (Grisham grounded out against righty Reed Garrett) and it was 100% the right move. Volpe is hitting .193/.272/.373 (80 wRC+) against righties this season (.286/.356/.462 and 130 wRC+ against lefties) and he’s been in a downswing for weeks. Grisham was the best available option in that spot, so he pinch-hit. A good, justifiable move.
“The competitor in you wants to go out there, wants to help the team and feel like you can, but those things are out of my control. What is is just putting in the work and earning those at-bats,” Volpe told Gary Phillips after the game. “… Grinding for sure. Trying to get pitches to hit and drive them and just feel comfortable and see the ball. But obviously just working every day to feel good.”
Friday was not the first time the Yankees have pinch-hit for Volpe. It was a whole big thing when Oswaldo Cabrera (!) pinch-hit for him against Andrés Muñoz down a run in the ninth inning last Sept. 19th, and again when Domínguez pinch-hit for him against Seranthony Domínguez down two runs in the ninth inning a few days later on Sept. 24th. Volpe had been terrible and wasn’t the best option, so he didn’t get to hit.
Last year’s pinch-hitting moves came in September though. Volpe had been terrible for weeks and was allowed to grind through it. This time he got pinch-hit for in early July. The acknowledgement that he is not getting the job done and someone else gives the Yankees a better chance to win came much earlier this year. Volpe was allowed to play all year in 2023. In 2024, the pinch-hitting moves came late in the season. Now they’re happening in July. A bad trajectory for the Golden Child, that is.
Volpe is still doing the swing as hard as he can thing …
… but the results are the same. He’s hitting .219/.296/.398 (94 wRC+) overall and .210/.278/.377 (79 wRC+) since May 1st, south of his 2023-24 output (.228/.288/.373 and 85 wRC+). He was a pull and lift hitter in 2023, an opposite field singles guy in 2024, and now he’s not really anything other than a swing hard guy. Credit to Volpe for trying different things, but nothing’s worked yet. That ain’t good.
Volpe was not pinch-hit for in an obvious pinch-hitting spot Sunday (two on and two outs against righty Huascar Brazoban in the seventh inning), though I suspect the Yankees really wanted to give Chisholm the full day off, and that’s why Volpe was allowed to hit. (Chisholm didn’t pinch-hit for Oswald Peraza in another obvious pinch-hitting spot an inning later). I don’t think there is suddenly renewed confidence in Volpe.
We’ll see whether pinch-hitting for Volpe becomes a regular thing. On Friday, the Yankees needed a win badly and he’s been struggling, and it was a reasonable move. Ideally the Yankees would, you know, win some damn games, and win them in a way that doesn’t require pinch-hitting. The cat’s out of the bag though. If you can pinch-hit for Volpe in July, you can pinch-hit for him in important games in August and September (and October). The kid’s leash is growing shorter.
Schlittler’s imminent debut
Clarke Schmidt’s likely Tommy John surgery puts the Yankees in a real bind, rotation-wise. They need a fifth starter sometime this week. They could have gone with a spot starter (Carlos Carrasco lined up perfectly with Schmidt's spot) just to get them to the All-Star break, and reassess then. Instead, they’re calling up Cam Schlittler, who has emerged as either the best or second best pitching prospect in the system this year. He’ll debut Wednesday.
Schlittler, 24 and a seventh round pick in 2022, is having a terrific season, pitching to a 2.82 ERA (2.52 FIP) with 31.9 K% and 8.4 BB% in 76.2 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. That strikeout rate is fourth highest in the minors among the 162 pitchers with at least 70 innings. Here are the Statcast sliders for Schlittler’s five Triple-A starts (via Prospect Savant):
Pitch data guru Lance Brozdowski wrote about Schlittler in a recent edition of his paid newsletter. I can’t give it all away, but he says the Yankees had Schlittler raise his arm angle a bit and shift to the first base side of the rubber this year, leading to an uptick in velocity and improved pitch shapes. He’s a different guy than he was when I ranked him the No. 21 prospect in the system in February.
Triple-A Stuff+ has Schlittler with four above-average pitches (four-seamer, traditional slider, sweeper, curveball) and he seems to have shelved his changeup/work-in-progress splitter, at least with Scranton. The algorithm has trouble with the traditional slider and sometimes classifies it a cutter, giving you an idea of the velocity and break. Here is Brozdowski’s conclusion:
I’m enamored with Schlittler. There’s very little to critique here. I just want to see this package against major league hitters. He’s throwing harder, his shapes are great, and his release is distinct. There’s also room to add back the changeup or splitter if he’s presented with lefty whiff issues at higher levels (unlikely). And if he ever needs to move the four-seamer back out over the plate, he can add a sinker pretty easily. He’s a top 20 pitching prospect in MLB right now. I’d have him in the 55 FV tier, so a #3/4 starting pitcher with upside for more. Perhaps too aggressive of an adjustment after just 74.1 innings, but it’s everything you look for in a starting pitching prospect.
The Yankees gave Schlittler a ton of run in Spring Training. He made four starts and a relief appearance, and those four Grapefruit League starts are the most by a Yankees’ prospect who had yet to make his big league debut since at least 2005 (MLB.com’s Spring Training stats only go back to 2006). You don’t get that many starts with the MLB players and coaches unless the organization really, really likes you.
My guess is Schlittler is up to make at least a few starts and this isn’t a one-and-done move. The 40-man roster move is easy (Schmidt to the 60-day injured list) but I don’t think the Yankees are planning to add him to the 40-man and then demote him, burning an option for one spot start. I think Schlittler will stick around until at least the trade deadline, assuming his performance doesn’t warrant a demotion.
You hate to ask so much of a rookie, but the Yankees do need Schlittler to do more than just eat innings and buy them time until the trade deadline. They’re playing catch-up in the AL East and hanging on in the Wild Card race. It’s a huge opportunity for Schlittler. It’s a chance to start for the New York Yankees, kid. For the Yankees, they need him to pitch well. Their margin of error in the standings is shrinking.
Miscellany
I’m wrong about things all the time, yet I’m not sure I’ve ever looked as dumb as quickly as I did as when I wrote last week that I wouldn’t bat Domínguez leadoff, and that his power outage had to do with his lack of pulled fly balls as a lefty. That night Jasson hit leadoff and hit two opposite field homers as a lefty (video). I pledge to only use my Axisa Curse powers for good from now on … Dominguez’s leadoff homer Friday was the seventh leadoff homer for the Yankees this year. It’s their most in a season since 2019 (7). The last time they had more than seven was 2003 (15). Also, five different leadoff homer hitters (Domínguez, Goldschmidt, Grisham, Ben Rice, Austin Wells) is a new franchise record … Wells went deep Saturday and Sunday (video). I really hope that’s the start of something after his poor June (.224/.274/.373 and 80 wRC+). Despite the lack of a step forward offensively, Wells went into Monday third among catchers in homers (13) and tied for second in extra-base hits (28). The power’s been there. The AVG and OBP have not … Boone put Jayvien Sandridge in an impossible spot for his MLB debut Saturday. “Here kid, go face Juan Soto and Pete Alonso.” Sandridge retired only two of the six batters he faced, and gave up a two-run dinger to Alonso. I get the bullpen is dicey right now, but maybe find a softer landing spot for the kid’s debut? Sandridge was sent down Sunday and Geoff Hartlieb, who was DFAed and released last week, was brought back … And finally, the only surprising thing about Soto’s two-run homer Friday is that he didn’t do it in Yankee Stadium in May. It was gonna happen at some point. I am very glad Soto was left on deck when Sunday’s game ended. Thanks for the easy 1-2-3 ninth inning, Devin.
Injury updates
Chisholm said he’s been playing through an achy right shoulder for about three weeks. He says it only bothers him throwing, not when he’s hitting. Chisholm was out of the lineup Sunday to manage it. By all means, continue playing the second baseman with a sore throwing shoulder at third base so he has to make those long throws. Also, the thought crossed my mind that Jazz could be invited to the Home Run Derby now that he’s an All-Star. I hope he skips it, if he is. Not because I’m worried it will ruin his swing. It’s just that he missed a month with an oblique strain and now his shoulder is barking. We don’t need Chisholm making anything worse and missing more time … And finally, Judge is fine after being hit near his right eye with a ball thrown by Volpe between innings Saturday (video). I gotta say, Volpe hitting Judge in the face with a ball is a little too on the nose as a metaphor for this era of Yankees baseball.
Up next
Six more games until the All-Star break and a much-needed reprieve from this team. Here’s what’s on the schedule between now and Friday’s post:
Tuesday vs. Mariners: RHP Will Warren vs. RHP Logan Gilbert (7pm ET on YES)
Wednesday vs. Mariners: TBA vs. RHP Logan Evans (7pm ET on Amazon)
Thursday vs. Mariners: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. RHP Bryan Woo (7pm ET on YES, MLBN)
Wednesday’s TBA will be Schlittler. Some teams list the rookie pitcher as the scheduled starter before he is officially called up, some teams don’t. The Yankees are one of the teams that don’t. Over the weekend Boone would only say Schlittler is “certainly in that consideration” for Wednesday’s start. Typical Yankee obfuscation. Everything has to be a secret or a riddle.
Anyway, Mariners games average 7.70 runs (between the two teams) at T-Mobile Park and 9.73 runs on the road. Cal Raleigh is having a great season period (.268/.381/.640 and 183 wRC+ with 35 homers), you don’t need the “for a catcher” qualifier, and Randy Arozarena has six homers in his last seven games. The Mariners are healthier than the team we saw in Seattle a few weeks ago and their late-inning bullpen (Matt Brash, Andrés Muñoz, Gabe Speier) is lights-out. You don’t want to be down after six innings.
2. 2025 draft prospect: LSU RHP Anthony Eyanson. The 2025 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 39 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I like for whatever reason. We’re covering a little of everything.
Eyanson, 21 in October, spent two years at UC San Diego before transferring to LSU this spring, where he served as the Tigers’ No. 2 starter behind potential No. 1 overall pick Kade Anderson. He pitched to a 3.00 ERA with 33.9 K% and 8.0 BB% in 108 innings this season, and his 152 strikeouts ranked third in Division I. Eyanson started and struck out nine in 6.1 innings in the College World Series clincher last month. Here’s where he lands in the latest draft prospect rankings:
Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 35
ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 49
FanGraphs: Unranked
MLB Pipeline: No. 40
Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 38
Eyanson has performed everywhere he’s played, including during his brief Cape Cod League stint and for the U.S. National Team last summer. He’s been on radar for years and did nothing this year to hurt his stock leading up to the draft. Here’s video and here’s a snippet of MLB Pipeline’s free scouting report:
Eyanson's slider has become his best pitch during his first season in Baton Rouge, parking at 82-85 mph and eliciting empty swings in and out of the strike zone thanks to its tremendous depth. His upper-70s curveball has been solid but hasn't enticed hitters to chase nearly as much as his slide piece has. His fastball has operated at 92-94 mph and topped out at 98, though its lack of life can make it vulnerable if he doesn't locate it well.
Though Eyanson's low-80s changeup can miss bats with its fade and sink, he struggles to throw it for strikes. He's a good athlete with decent control but will nibble around the plate too much at times. He has a ceiling of a No. 3 starter if he can improve his fastball shape but also could wind up as a reliever who relies heavily on his breaking pitches.
Baseball America’s scouting report (subs. req’d) says Eyanson’s fastball has “some interesting traits including above-average riding life and a low spin profile that comes from a relatively steep attack angle,” and people smarter than me say a sinking two-seamer works best for his arm angle. I imagine whichever team drafts him will have him toy with a sinker, and see where it goes.
Two breaking balls and a changeup is a pretty strong foundation. Unless his fastball takes a leap under pro instruction, Eyanson’s a candidate for the Joe Musgrove approach. Lean on the two breaking balls and the changeup, and use the fastball as a change of pace/show-me pitch. Eyanson is seen as one of the “safer” bets in the draft class. There’s strong belief he’ll carve a big league role as long as he stays healthy, even if only as a one-inning reliever.
3. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees made a few Triple-A moves this week. First, they signed Jeimer Candelario to a minor league contract. He told Yancen Pujols he had other offers, but wanted to join the Yankees. The Reds DFAed him two weeks ago and I answered a mailbag question about him. Candelario has been horrible the last two years, but there’s no harm in signing him to a Triple-A deal. Maybe he’ll go on a Matt Carpenter run. Second, the Yankees signed righty reliever Joel Kuhnel to a minor league deal. Kuhnel, 30, has some big league time, mostly with the Reds, and he had a 3.62 ERA (3.63 FIP) with 20.6 K% and 3.1 BB% in 32.1 Triple-A innings with the Phillies before getting released. He’s a mid-90s sinker/slider/changeup guy. A depth arm, basically. We could see Kuhnel at some point the same way we saw Geoff Hartlieb, Tyler Matzek, etc. And third, the Yankees traded Alex Jackson to the Orioles for $250,000 in international bonus pool money and cash or a player to be named later. Baltimore’s top four catchers (Adley Rutschman, Gary Sánchez, Maverick Handley, Chadwick Tromp) are on the injured list. They called Jackson up immediately and I assume he had an upward mobility clause in his minor league deal. That means once he triggered it, the Yankees either had to let him go to a team willing to put him on their 40-man roster, or call him up themselves. The trade is a way to get something in return. Jackson hit .226/.308/.463 (101 wRC+) with 10 homers with the RailRiders. Scranton’s catching tandem now is Jesus Rodriguez and organizational guy Edinson Duran. I assume Rafael Flores, who’s hitting .285/.345/.495 (148 wRC+) with 14 homers in Double-A, will get the bump up to Triple-A soon.
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
kyle
I'm not going to tell you I'm not excited that we might reach a lode bearing Geoff Hartlieb
Spookie
On one hand, you're absolutely right. On the other, the injury proves yet again that workload management isn't the answer to these injuries.
Jerry Donohue
In hindsight (not that it matters much) it’s a good thing that Boone lifted Schmidt during his no hit game. If he hadn’t, the Boone haters would be having a field day!
