RAB Thoughts
patreon
July 11th, 2025: Mariners Series, Infield, Schlittler, Bullpen, 2025 Draft, Mailbag
🕑 Added 2025-07-11 10:00:13 +0000 UTCUPDATE: Carlos Rodón is heading to the All-Star Game. He was added to the roster to replace Max Fried, who I guess won't be available to pitch Tuesday after starting tomorrow afternoon's game. Too bad. Fried pitching in (maybe even starting) the All-Star Game back in Atlanta after all his years with the Braves would have been neat. Rodón is starting tonight and should be okay to throw an inning Tuesday? We'll see.
ORIGINAL POST: We’ve made it. The final post of the first half. The Yankees have three games with the Cubs this weekend, the draft begins Sunday night, the All-Star break is next week, and the second half begins next Friday in Atlanta. As for the blog, this is what’s coming up:
Monday: Midseason grades
Tuesday: Regular post to touch on whatever’s lingering
Wednesday or (more likely) Thursday: Draft recap
Friday: Regular post with mailbag questions
I can’t promise the midseason grades will hit your inbox first thing Monday morning but I will effort. I have a lot on my plate for CBS this time of year, and if I have to push them back to later in the day Monday or even Tuesday, then that’s what it has to be. Here’s a spoiler to whet your appetite: Aaron Judge will get an A. Here’s what I wrote about DJ LeMahieu getting DFAed and here now is today’s post.
1. Weekday thoughts. I did a bad job selling the importance of the Mariners series in Tuesday’s post. The Yankees and Mariners went into the series separated by one game in the standings/Wild Card race. The sweep pushed Seattle to four back and also secured the tiebreaker, which could come in handy. I figured Thursday's game was a loss after Jorge Polanco's three-run homer. From getting no-hit into the eighth to winning in the tenth is pretty awesome. The 5-0 comeback was the Yankees' biggest comeback of the season, and Sarah Langs says they're the first team to win a game after trailing by five runs and being no-hit through seven innings since the Pirates against the Expos in 1977. Here now are a few thoughts on the last few games.
On the comeback
The Yankees scored three runs in the eighth and two in the ninth to tie Thursday’s game and Mariners closer Andrés Muñoz was tipping his slider. This is not me guessing. Someone with the Yankees confirmed it to Brendan Kuty. They had his slider, and the runner at second waved his arms to signal to the hitter than a slider was coming, like this:
Definitely not subtle! Usually the runner at second tugs at the earflap on his helmet or something like that. He doesn’t wave his arms so conspicuously lol. Cal Raleigh told Kuty (subs. req’d) that Muñoz was indeed tipping his slider, and that it was “on them” to make sure it doesn’t happen. “Obviously, they weren’t making it very discrete, I guess is the word,” Raleigh added. Yeah, I’d say.
This is good ol' fashioned gamesmanship. Muñoz was tipping his pitches, the Yankees picked up on it, and the pitch was relayed to the hitter. Teams have been doing that for over a century now. As long as the Yankees didn’t go full Astros and use electronic equipment to do it, this is all fair game, and anyone who claims this is illegal doesn’t know ball. Just maybe be a little more subtle next time?
Muñoz is really good and really tough, and some of those at-bats in the ninth inning were so good and so comfortable-looking that I wasn’t surprised to learn he was tipping. I mean, Ben Rice went from 0-2 to a walk. It was the first time in Muñoz’s career he walked someone after getting ahead in the count 0-2. Now we know Rice had help. Good work by the Yankees, bad work by Muñoz. That’s all there is to it.
Finally, the proper infield alignment
In a move that was long overdue, the Yankees moved Jazz Chisholm Jr. back to second base this week. That was the beginning of the end for DJ LeMahieu and the difference has been night and day. Chisholm at second and Oswald Peraza at third is so obviously the best defensive alignment, and it’s already paid dividends. Look at these plays. Do they happen with LeMahieu at second and Jazz at third? I don't think so.
“Elite defender, elite slugging, fast, great defense,” Chisholm, who is his own best hype man, told Bryan Hoch when asked to describe himself as a second baseman. “I don’t know what else to tell you. Sounds like a complete player to me.”
Chisholm made six throwing errors in 29 games at third base. He’s second in throwing errors and 38th in innings among third basemen. Errors are not the best way to evaluate defense, but a) this matches the eye test, and b) we’re talking about throwing errors. These are balls Chisholm fielded and was unable to complete the play. Here are the defensive metrics:
Chisholm at 2B: +4 DRS and +3 OAA in 279 innings
LeMahieu at 2B: +2 DRS and -1 OAA in 324 innings
Chisholm at 3B: -3 DRS and -3 OAA in 238 innings
Peraza at 3B: +4 DRS and +2 OAA in 247.2 innings
I’m surprised LeMahieu rated as well as he did at second. It didn’t match the eye test, for sure. Still, Jazz is a much better defender according to the numbers and my eyes. More range, more athleticism, more arm, more everything. And Peraza at third is just more refined than Chisholm. Chisholm’s inexperience showed often and his throwing was wild. Peraza’s sure-handed and right on the money.
(Peraza hasn’t hit and the underlying numbers are bad: 31.7% chase rate, 68.5% contact rate, 38.5% hard-hit rate. Too many chases, too little contact, too little hard contact. Oswald, for your career’s sake, these next few weeks would be a great time to show something with the stick.)
Putting Chisholm back at second is one of things that won’t necessarily spark an extended run that sends the Yankees up the standings, but it makes them better. Bad defense hurts in so many ways. It’s more baserunners, more runs, more pitches for the pitcher, more pitching changes, more relievers, etc. The Yankees had to tighten things up on the infield and it’s about time they did. It was a must.
Schlittler’s debut
Boy, Cam Schlittler sure looks like one of the 13 best pitchers in the organization, no? That kid can help the Yankees in some capacity the rest of the season. Starter, reliever, whatever. Schlittler made his MLB debut Wednesday and was better than his line suggests: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 7 K, 2 HR (video) on 75 pitches. Jonathan Loáisiga allowed a(nother) inherited runner to score, sullying Schlittler’s line.
“I thought he was under control. I mean, you see the live fastball,” Aaron Boone said after the game (video). “I thought he did a really good job with his secondary stuff, mixing that in. You see his stuff really plays and I thought his calm, his poise, and focus was excellent.”
In his free write-up of Schlittler’s start, pitch data guru Lance Brozdowski said he’s “one of the more dramatic two-year improvements I’ve ever seen” and “one of the bigger ‘how did we miss him’ pitching prospects” and “exactly what a top 10-15 pitching prospect in baseball looks like.” Schlittler rewrote the team’s velocity leaderboard Wednesday. Here are the fastest pitches thrown by a Yankee this year:
1. Cam Schlittler: 100.0 mph
2. Cam Schlittler: 99.9 mph
3. Cam Schlittler: 99.7 mph
4. Cam Schlittler: 99.7 mph
5. Cam Schlittler: 99.6 mph
6. Cam Schlittler: 99.0 mph
7. Cam Schlittler: 98.9 mph
8. Yerry De Los Santos: 98.5 mph
9. Cam Schlittler: 98.4 mph
10. Cam Schlittler: 98.4 mph
Nos. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, and 9 came in the first inning. Surely there was adrenaline involved (Schlittler settled into the 96-98 mph range after the first) but the guy’s thrown 14 of the 15, 15 of the 17, and 23 of the 33 fastest pitches by a Yankee this year. This team has had a velocity issue all season, in part because Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil are hurt. Schlittler was a breath of fresh air. A hard-thrower in 2025. What a concept.
(Schlittler’s father wore a Hudson Valley Renegades hat to the game. That’s hardcore. You can see it at the 1:09 mark here.)
Boone confirmed Schlittler will make another start (duh), though because he started Wednesday, he won’t pitch again until after the All-Star break. I wonder if we’ll see him in relief Sunday, on what could easily be his between-starts throw day? The Yankees did this with Clarke Schmidt in 2023. He pitched an inning out of the bullpen the day before the break rather than have that long layoff between starts. We’ll see.
Maybe I’m overreacting to one start and adrenaline-juiced velocity, but Schlittler looks like someone who can help the Yankees the rest of the way. Maybe it’s as a starter, maybe it’s as a reliever (multi-inning setup guy a la Mike King?). I dunno. But it’s a really good arm and needed velocity. Schlittler was better than the pitching line Wednesday. He was impressive and looked like he belonged. Excited, I am.
“I’m just trying to get the first one under my belt,” Schlittler told Hoch after the game. “Whatever happens, I’m just fortunate to be here and to get that opportunity.”
Leiter’s injury and the bullpen of my discontent
The Yankees are running out of arms, both starters and relievers. The latest casualty: Mark Leiter Jr. He has a stress fracture in his left knee, which he suffered covering first base during the Reds series (this play). Leiter says it didn’t bother him until this past weekend. Perhaps this explains the recent slip in performance (i.e. fewer strikeouts)? Doesn’t matter now. He’s out indefinitely.
“Hopefully it sounds worse (than it is),” Boone told Chris Kirschner (subs. req’d). “I know he’s not going to throw for a couple of days, but hopefully after that, he can get up and throw … Hopefully this is something that we can get hammered out and get him back to throwing as well as he was the first couple months of the season.”
The Yankees are now without their top two strikeout relievers (Leiter and Fernando Cruz) and are short on reliable high leverage options. Clayton Beeter was called up to fill Leiter’s roster spot and Geoff Hartlieb was DFAed after that terrible mop up appearance Tuesday (five batters, three runs, one out). This is the current bullpen:
Actual Major Leaguers
1. RHP Devin Williams (how good has he been lately?)
2. RHP Luke Weaver
3. LHP Tim Hill
4. RHP Jonathan Loáisiga
5. RHP Ian Hamilton
Up/Down Depth Types
6. RHP Scott Effross
7. RHP Clayton Beeter
8. RHP JT Brubaker
Weaver’s been home run prone lately. Loáisiga too. Hamilton can be hit or miss and Hill allows so many balls in play. It’s not great. The Yankees needed a reliever, particularly one with velocity who can beat hitters with fastballs in the zone, before Cruz and Leiter got hurt. Now they need two or three relievers. I don’t think that’s an overreaction. This is the Yankees’ weakest bullpen unit in quite some time.
The bullpen has been charged with at least three runs in 11 of the last 12 games (!) and it goes without saying that it’s really, really, really hard to win when your bullpen does that. It's a minor miracle they're 5-7 in those 12 games and not 3-9 or something. The Yankees are dangerously close to a load-bearing Scott Effross. They need to add relievers and they also need the guys in the bullpen to be better. Williams had to be better earlier this year. Now Loáisiga and Weaver have to get it together.
(We’ll need to adjust Aaron Judge’s home run total at the end of the season because he didn’t get to face the Yankees’ bullpen. Not fair!)
Miscellany
Clutch rain delay Tuesday. Logan Gilbert was throwing grenades before the skies opened up, and he just wasn’t the same after the 35-ish minute delay. Gilbert retired 12 of 13 before the delay and only three of 11 after the delay. The rain delay that turned the season around? Well, Cody Bellinger’s double play against the Mets might’ve already done that … Jasson Domínguez in three games as the leadoff hitter since I said I would leave him lower in the lineup: 5-for-16 (.313) with a double, two homers, and three walks. The last 30 days:
Cody Bellinger: .321/.339/.509 (136 wRC+) with 4 HR
Jasson Domínguez: .337/.376/.488 (142 wRC+) with 2 HR
Trent Grisham: .286/.375/.455 (136 wRC+) with 3 HR
Grisham has started only four of the last nine games and the hamstring issue he’s been nursing since the Toronto series surely has something to do with that. Still, Bellinger and Domínguez have been so good the last few weeks. Hard to take them out of the lineup … Marcus Stroman has gone exactly five innings in each of his three starts back from the knee injury and he’s allowed 1, 3, and 2 runs. At this point in his career, you can’t ask for anything more. I’ll take that every fifth day as long as Stroman is in the rotation … Two homers in three games and three homers in seven games for Giancarlo Stanton, including his first career pinch-hit homer Thursday. Big G is heating up … The Yankees went 0-for-3 trying to steal against Cal Raleigh and they’re 12-for-20 (60%) stealing bases in their last 26 games. FanGraphs has them 25th in total baserunning value, which is better than last season (30th by a good margin), but I thought the Yankees would be better and more active on the bases than this. I guess that was my mistake … And finally, LeMahieu was officially released Thursday. He cleared waivers (no surprise with $22M still owed to him) and can now sign with any team for the prorated minimum. Signing LeMahieu feels Angels-y, no? Christian Moore is hurt, you know. We’ll see if DJ hooks on anywhere, or if this is it. (The Yankees now have an open 40-man roster spot and can put Clarke Schmidt on the 60-day injured list when they need another, just FYI. Trade deadline is coming up and all that.)
Injury updates
Luis Gil (lat) threw 42 pitches in live BP Tuesday and is expected to start a rehab assignment Sunday. He’s scheduled for three innings and 50-ish pitches. No surprise here, but Boone said they’ll build Gil up as a starter. They’re not looking at him to help the bullpen … Clarke Schmidt (elbow) is indeed having Tommy John surgery. It’s scheduled for Friday, as in today … Ryan Yarbrough (oblique) started playing catch Thursday. It’ll still be a while, but he’s started doing baseball things … Yerry De Los Santos (elbow) has been playing catch and will face hitters in live BP soon … And finally, there was a bit of a stir the other day when Everson Pereira and Bryan De La Cruz, two righty hitting outfielders, were held out of Scranton’s lineup. Trade? Call up? Turns out neither. Pereira was sick and De La Cruz has an oblique issue. Pereira returned to the lineup Thursday. De La Cruz remains out but is not on the injured list.
Up next
The final weekend of the first half, then the All-Star break. Remember how the first half ended last year? It wasn’t pretty. Let’s not do that again this year. The Yankees will host the Cubs this weekend and the last time they played the Cubs in the series before the All-Star break, they lost two of three and fired the hitting coach. That was 2023. Let’s not do that again either. Here is the upcoming schedule:
Friday vs. Cubs: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Chris Flexen (7pm ET on YES)
Saturday vs. Cubs: LHP Max Fried vs. LHP Matt Boyd (1pm ET on YES, MLBN)
Sunday vs. Cubs: RHP Will Warren vs. LHP Shota Imanaga (1:30pm ET on YES, MLBN)
Monday: Home Run Derby (8pm ET on ESPN)
Tuesday: All-Star Game (8pm ET on FOX)
Also, the Futures Game is Saturday (4pm ET on MLBtv, MLB.com, MLBN), if you care to watch George Lombard Jr. get a few at-bats and make a few plays in the field.
Fried starting Saturday lines him up perfectly to pitch an inning in the All-Star Game Tuesday. That would be his usual between-starts throw day. Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet will also start Saturday, so they're on the same schedule. We won’t find out who’s starting the All-Star Game until the press conference Monday, but remember, Boone is the AL manager. He can pick his own guy, plus Fried back in Atlanta would be neat. We’ll see.
The Cubbies are really good. They lead baseball in runs scored per game (5.41) and can go toe-to-toe with the Yankees in homers, their up-the-middle defense is ridiculous (Pete Crow-Armstrong, Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson), and the Yankees will see their two best starters (Boyd and Imanaga). Can’t have one foot in the batter’s box and the other on the plane for the All-Star break vacation, fellas.
2. Last minute draft thoughts. The 2025 draft begins Sunday night and runs through Monday. It’s only two days now, not three, and the draft is 20 rounds rather than the 40 or 50 of old. 20 rounds is all teams need anyway following MLB’s minor league takeover and contraction plan. That’s another topic for another time though. Anyway, with the draft coming up, I have a few last minute thoughts, so let’s get to ‘em.
Picks and slot values
Just to recap, here are the picks the Yankees hold this year, and their slot values. They gained a pick for losing Juan Soto and then forfeited two to sign Max Fried, so the net is one pick lost (their second round pick, specifically). Here are the Yankees’ picks and their slot values:
1st round (No. 39): $2,509,500
3rd round (No. 103): $744,400
4th round (No. 134): $550,300
5th round (No. 164): $411,100
6th round (No. 194): $319,800
7th round (No. 224): $252,100
8th round (No. 254): $212,500
9th round (No. 284): $196,600
10th round (No. 314): $187,300
Every pick in rounds 11-20 has a $150,000 slot value and anything over $150,000 counts against the bonus pool. Same with undrafted free agents. The Yankees will make the No. 39 and No. 103 picks Sunday night during the ESPN/MLB Network broadcast. Monday is rounds 4-20 and that’s a conference call with rapid fire picks one after the other. That will be streamed on MLB.com.
The Yankees have the smallest bonus pool in baseball: $5,383,600. That happens when you forfeit your second rounder to sign a free agent, get the No. 29 pick for losing the World Series, then have that pick moved back 10 spots for luxury tax penalties. Add in the 5% overage (the maximum you can go over before forfeiting a future first rounder) and the Yankees can max their bonus pool out at $5,728,352. They’ve spent the 5% overage every year of the draft pool era. I’m sure they’ll do it again this year.
Could the Yankees trade for an additional pick?
Technically yes. Will they? Probably not. Competitive Balance picks, the extra picks given to small market teams, are the only tradeable draft picks, and they can be traded any time prior to 5pm ET Sunday. The Rays on Thursday traded the No. 37 pick to the Orioles straight up for righty Bryan Baker, a solid No. 3-4 option in a contender’s bullpen with 3.5 years of control, giving you an idea of how these picks are valued.
There are 15 of those Competitive Balance picks this year and 10 are tradeable. These picks can only be traded once each and five have already been moved: No. 33 in the Quinn Priester trade, No. 37 for Baker, No. 41 in the Gavin Lux trade, No. 42 in the Jeffrey Springs trade, and No. 70 in the Josh Naylor trade. Here are the Competitive Balance picks that can be traded and the associated bonus pool money:
Competitive Balance Round A
No. 34: Tigers ($2,827,300)
No. 35: Mariners ($2,758,300)
No. 36: Twins ($2,692,000)
No. 43: Marlins ($2,276,700)
Competitive Balance Round B
No. 66: Guardians ($1,320,400)
No. 69: Orioles ($1,223,800)
No. 71: Royals ($1,163,700)
No. 72: Cardinals ($1,145,900)
No. 73: Pirates ($1,128,400)
No. 74: Rockies ($1,111,000)
(The Mets, Yankees, and Dodgers have the No. 38-40 picks because their first rounders were moved back by luxury tax penalties, hence the gap in the Competitive Balance Round A. Also, No. 67 and No. 68 are compensation picks for unsigned 2024 draftees. Those picks can’t be traded.)
The Marlins, Orioles, and Pirates are draft-obsessed teams unlikely to trade their Competitive Balance pick. The Tigers and Mariners will probably only move it for immediate MLB help, which doesn’t work for the Yankees. The ideal trade would be one of the Yankees’ many Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects for a pick, which would functionally “reset” the 40-man roster clock on that organizational roster spot.
If there were ever a year for the Yankees to trade for a pick, it’s this one. Their first rounder was moved back 10 spots, they surrendered their second rounder to sign Fried, and they have the smallest bonus pool. I’m sure they’re calling around and asking, if only to do their due diligence. I don’t expect a draft pick trade. I say that every year. One of these years though, they’ll surprise me.
Other prospects of note
I wrote up 18 draft prospects this year and usually I never get to as many as I want, but this year I feel like I wrote up too many. The No. 39 pick is so late and you have to cast such a wide net. This is a labor of love but it is also a lot of wasted words. Absolute best case scenario is the Yankees draft two of those 18 players, which still means 16 write-ups were a waste of time. And yet, I have a few more players I want to touch on briefly before draft day. Here’s the last batch of draft prospect write-ups.
Arkansas OF Charles Davalan: Elite contact rates (over 90% overall and in-zone) with some power and good defense in all three outfield spots. Add in good speed and it’s a textbook lefty hitting leadoff profile. Brett Gardner vibes, though Davalan is a notch south of the runner and defender Gardner was as a young player. He might not get the Yankees at No. 39.
Mississippi RHP Mason Morris: Primarily a reliever in college, Morris had a big velocity spike this year (now 95-99 mph) and he’s always had a good cutter and slider. He trimmed his walk rate to 9.2% this season and the expectation is the team that drafts him will give him a chance to start. Morris has the pitch package for it and enough control now. He’s more of a target for the No. 103 pick than No. 39.
LSU RHP Chase Shores: Shores is Yankees-sized (6-foot-8 and 252 lbs.) and he’s hit 100 mph several times this spring. His slider checks all the analytical boxes. He’s been buried in the bullpen on a deep LSU staff (Shores got an eight-out save in the College World Series clincher last month) but teams that lean on analytical models love him and see him as a first round arm even though he’s likely to go in the second or third round. For the Yankees, Shores might be a reach at No. 39 while also having little chance to get to them at No. 103.
Arkansas LHP Zach Root: Root is the kinda no nonsense, long track record, second tier college starter teams love to scoop up in the second and third rounds. His curveball and changeup are excellent, but his low-90s heater needs a little help both velocity and movement-wise. There’s good upside under the right development program and also the higher than usual probability that makes scouting directors sleep soundly at night.
California HS SS/OF Quentin Young: Delmon and Dmitri’s nephew, Young is a big kid (6-foot-6 and 225 lbs.) with massive power. He put up 116 mph exit velocities at the draft combine last month. No one thinks Young will stay at shortstop and there are some swing and miss concerns, but the upside is immense. The skill set is not all that dissimilar to James Wood at this age, albeit as a right-handed batter. Young strikes me as the kinda high schooler who gets floated out of the first round and to a team with extra picks and a big bonus pool, which is of course not the Yankees.
Various bat-first catchers: The Yankees have gotten really good at developing catchers defensively and it makes sense to target bat-first catchers they can coach up, similar to Austin Wells. This is not a great catcher draft overall but there are a few potential middle rounders who can bang: Troy C Brooks Bryan, Florida C Brody Donay, Dallas Baptist C Grant Jay, and Louisville C Matt Klein. They’re all model darlings (exit velocity, swing decisions, etc.) who mashed in college, but none are standout defenders. They’re expected to go in rounds 3-7 somewhere. Seems like they align with the Yankees’ developmental strengths. Might as well lean into it, you know?
Final thoughts
I have very little confidence I wrote up the prospect the Yankees will select with the No. 39 pick Sunday. There has been no firm reporting about their targets or any rumored interest, which is understandable given how late they pick this year. It’s hard to zero in on a target when you have the No. 20 pick. Doing it with No. 39 is basically impossible. So, the element of surprise will be ratcheted up Sunday.
This has been a fairly typical year in the farm system. Some breakouts (Carlos Lagrange, Cam Schlittler), some disappointments (Roderick Arias, Gage Ziehl), some guys maybe figuring it out (Spencer Jones, Roc Riggio), some injuries (Chase Hampton, Henry Lalane). There are good years and bad years. This is just a year. Last year the system took a hit and really needed a talent infusion on draft day.
The early returns on last year’s pitching heavy draft class aren’t good. First rounder Ben Hess is walking too many guys, second rounder Bryce Cunningham has a shoulder issue, third rounder Thatcher Hurd blew out his elbow, fourth rounder Gage Ziehl is getting hit around by Low-A kids, etc. Bad drafts happen, but you can’t whiff on back-to-back draft classes. It’ll set you back big time organizationally.
So yes, every draft is important, but this one has a little added importance for the Yankees, if for no other reason than to stock up on tradeable prospects for the offseason and next trade deadline. Pitching and catcher defense are their developmental strengths, and pitchers and catchers are always useful trade chips. With a late pick, no second rounder, and a small bonus pool, adding impact will be a challenge.
“Don’t look at just the first round. Look at the entirety of what a team picks and the depth that you’re going to get,” scouting director Damon Oppenheimer told Bryan Hoch. “I don’t think a draft in baseball needs to be judged within a year or two years. I think it needs to take time for it to marinate, and to see what you get further down throughout the whole draft.”
3. Rapid fire thoughts. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is going to the Home Run Derby. I don’t love it. Not because I’m worried it will ruin his swing (that’s a myth). I don’t want him to do it because he missed a month with an oblique strain and has been nursing an achy shoulder the last few weeks. The last thing the Yankees need is their only good infielder overdoing it in the Home Run Derby and missing time. Fingers crossed Jazz makes it through in one piece (I’m sure Chisholm will make it fun as hell) … MLB will use the automated strike zone challenge system during the All-Star Game next week. The challenge system is coming next season, it feels inevitable, but do we really need it in the All-Star Game? I get it, MLB wants to show it off in a high-profile event. No one’s watching for that though. I don’t need to see Aaron Judge challenge a strike below the zone. As far as I’m concerned, they can turn off instant replay, the challenge system, all that stuff in the All-Star Game. Just go play baseball … And finally, PA announcer Paul Olden will miss this weekend's series for personal reasons. He's been at the mic for every single game at the new Yankee Stadium. All 1,339 of them. That's a helluva streak coming to an end. Mark Fratto, the PA announcer for NYCFC and also some Madison Square Garden events, will fill in.
Mailbag Questions of the Week
Anonymous asks: Jasson Dominguez rookie of the year chances?
I don’t believe it was voted on yet (if it was, I missed it), but the BBWAA proposed expanding the Rookie of the Year ballot from three slots to five slots over the winter. Either way, I don’t think El Marciano has a good chance to win Rookie of the Year right now. Here, to get the discussion started, are the AL rookie leaders going into Thursday:
FanGraphs WAR
1. Jacob Wilson, Athletics: +2.9 WAR
2. Carlos Narváez, Red Sox: +2.9 WAR
3. Will Warren, Yankees: +1.9 WAR
4. Cam Smith, Astros: +1.8 WAR
5. Shane Smith, White Sox: +1.2 WAR
6. Jasson Domínguez, Yankees: +1.6 WAR
Baseball Reference WAR
1. Carlos Narváez, Red Sox: +2.9 WAR
2. Cam Smith, Astros: +2.3 WAR
3. Jacob Wilson, Athletics: +2.2 WAR
4. Noah Cameron, Royals: +2.0 WAR
5. Mike Vasil, White Sox: +1.7 WAR
6. Jasson Domínguez, Yankees: +1.1 WAR
Wilson has that hard to ignore .335/.379/.468 (135 wRC+) slash line. If he finishes with a .330-ish AVG, I think it’s his to lose. Smith has been incredible lately (.316/.350/.481 and 133 wRC+ since June 1st) and is Wilson’s top competition at the moment. Domínguez is charging hard the last few weeks and there are still 60-something games remaining, so there’s time to challenge Smith and Wilson (and Narváez). Right now, I think El Marciano would finish outside the top three of the voting.
(Reminder: The Yankees can not get a Prospect Promotion Incentive draft pick for Domínguez. He’s in a weird service time place where he’s still rookie-eligible but exceeds the PPI cutoff.)
Alessandro asks: As the black hole at 3B has gotten bigger, and the defense gotten more suspect, I've changed my stance on Ryan McMahon. In my mind, he could be a Chase Headley 2.0 (hopefully defense holds up better). But contract is about the same, and ideally he's batting 5-6 to lengthen lineup rather than be one of "The Guys." If Rockies finally decide to trade him (big IF), what could a combo trade for him and one of the Rockies RPs (your pick of Bird or Halvorsen) look like?
There hasn’t been any indication the Rockies are willing to move McMahon, who they consider a core player. At the same time, they’re 21-72, and he turns 31 in December. The chances McMahon is part of the next contending Rockies team are tiny. A reasonable team would trade him in a market starved for decent infielders. The Rockies though, they march to the beat of their own drum, so who knows?
For what it’s worth, McMahon stopped him at last year’s All-Star break. He was Colorado’s token All-Star last season and he hit .272/.350/.447 (109 wRC+) in the first half, so it wasn’t a ridiculous selection. Since then though, McMahon’s hit .200/.297/.345 (68 wRC+) with 31.2 K% in over 600 plate appearances. The bat has just cratered. Is he salvageable? Is this a the Rockies the dumb thing? I do not know.
McMahon is owed $16M in both 2026 and 2027, which isn’t much (it’s Tyler O’Neill money), and it’s not like there’s a great free agent class loaded with good infielders on the horizon. It could be that McMahon, who has 20+ homer power and is a nifty defender, is the best available option. He wouldn’t need to be the guy with the Yankees, or even the second, third, or fourth guy. Maybe that helps him loosen up.
Without really digging into McMahon, I’m a soft no but can see the vision. He just might be the best guy you can get given who’s available, similar to Headley back in the day. Add Jake Bird or Seth Halvorsen (or both?) to the mix and the Yankees could solve a few problems in one trade with the Rockies, even though “we’re trading for a bunch of Rockies, that will fix things” won’t excite anyone.
It’s tough to come with trade comps for 2.5 years of a decent third baseman and multiple years of a late inning reliever. The Yankees gave up three prospects for 2.5 years of Jazz Chisholm Jr., who’s value was diminished by injuries, not performance. Relievers teams think they coach up get traded all the time and the return ranges from cash to good prospects. How about:
RHP Ben Hess: The Rockies always need pitching and have a thing for guys with big velocity and four-seamers with carry at the top of the zone, like Hess. Plus they get to say they got a 2024 first rounder back.
C Rafael Flores: Not sure they need a catcher with Hunter Goodman establishing himself, but what other second tier prospect bat can the Yankees offer? Everson Pereira? Jesus Rodriguez?
Pick two Grade C arms to fill out the package. LHP Kyle Carr, LHP Griffin Herring, LHP Brock Selvidge, RHP Gage Ziehl, someone along those lines.
That feels light and I bet the Rockies say no, but how much more would you give up for a guy who hasn’t hit in a year and has $32M coming to him, and a reliever? I don’t love McMahon and would prefer a third baseman the Yankees don’t have to fix. Unless the Diamondbacks make Eugenio Suárez available, I’m just not sure there’s a better option available though. A depressing infield market, this is.
Bob asks: How about Thairo Estrada as a possible 3B option allowing Jazz to return to 2B? A return to summer of Thairo.
The Yankees had interest in Estrada over the winter, then the Rockies gave him $4M, and that was that. Now 29, Estrada missed the start of the season with a broken wrist, and he’s hitting .284/.312/.397 (83 wRC+) with second base defense that grades out poorly since returning in late May. He’s not even hitting lefties (39 wRC+) and he hasn’t played third base 2022, and even then he has only 58 career innings at the position. Kyle Farmer’s the better Rockies quasi-utility infielder target even though he’s not hitting this year (.219/.262/.348 and 55 wRC+). Farmer’s long been a lefty masher (career 113 wRC+ vs. LHP) who can play all over, and has plenty of experience at third. Neither Estrada nor Farmer excites me. The Yankees need to do better at the hot corner than dig up a new No. 8 or 9 hitter.
Colin asks: This might be one for the off-season, but the SS free agent classes are terrible over the next few years. Is there any chance the Yankees realize Volpe ain't it and sign Bichette for Willy Adames money
It would really surprise me. Sign him as a third or maybe even second baseman? Okay, perhaps that’s a thing they explore, but Bo Bichette’s shortstop defense has been negative his entire career. I don’t think the Yankees will throw a big pile of cash at Bichette to put him at short with that glove, especially now that the bat is merely good (110 wRC+) and not great (126 wRC+ from 2019-23). Bichette’s really young. He won’t turn 28 until Spring Training. I bet he gets $200M in what is shaping up to be a thin free agent class behind Kyle Tucker. The Yankees love Volpe, but pinch-hitting for him is an acknowledgement he isn’t getting the job done. Outright replacing him next year would shock me. It is getting to be time to bring in more competition though. Someone to push Volpe in Spring Training or a veteran caddy to take at-bats away during the season. Going from playing Volpe everyday to displacing him and paying Bichette huge dollars seems like too big a step too soon given how the Yankees operate.
Andrew asks: Given Milwaukee's general prowess with developing SP, the emergence of Misiorowski, Woodruff's return, etc. do you think the Yankees would ever try to trade them for the rehabbing Nestor Cortes? Doesn't seem like he's anything other than a depth option for them and could be a decent buy-low option.
The Brewers went from having no starters earlier this year (they bullpen gamed their home opener after leaving the Bronx) to having more healthy starters than rotation spots. Their rotation depth chart currently looks something like this:
1. RHP Freddy Peralta
2. RHP Jacob Misiorowski
3. RHP Brandon Woodruff
4. RHP Quinn Priester
5. LHP Jose Quintana
6. LHP Nestor Cortes (out with flexor strain)
7. RHP Chad Patrick (had some Rookie of the Year buzz before being demoted)
7. RHP Tobias Myers
8. RHP Logan Henderson (had a historic MLB stint a few weeks ago)
9. LHP Robert Gasser (out with Tommy John surgery)
It’s possible, if not likely, the Brewers will trade a starter to capitalize on a seller’s market and restock the system. Maybe they go big and deal Peralta. Maybe it’s a smaller move involving Cortes or Quintana, two veteran rentals. I’d call and ask about Henderson and/or Myers (and Peralta), and see what the Brewers say.
Nasty Nestor made two starts this season, including his disastrous return to the Bronx, before going down with the flexor strain, the same injury that sidelined him last September/October. He’s on a Triple-A rehab assignment right now and doesn’t have to be activated for another three weeks, and the Brewers aren’t desperate for pitching. They can slow play Nestor’s rehab.
Without knowing what the medicals look like and what his stuff looks like on rehab, I say sure, I’m all for a Cortes reunion as long as the price is reasonable. There’s upside (we’ve seen Nestor go on some terrific runs over the years), plus there are no questions about him handling New York, fitting into the clubhouse, etc. Trade him in the offseason, then bring him back at the deadline, Adam Warren in 2016 style.
I’d love Cortes as the second starter trade, not as the guy. Think Jaime Garcia to Sonny Gray in 2017, or Lance Lynn to J.A. Happ in 2018. If the Brewers demand a trade package on par with a healthy rental starter in a thin pitching market, then forget it. Look elsewhere. If the price is reasonable though, say a good but not great prospect or two, sure, go for it. Nestor is forever cool with me.
Chris asks: Do you think that bringing back Weaver with zero rehab appearances has played a role in his troubles? Even if he wasn't ready to come back right away, I would think he's at a point now where it's no difference than if he had had a couple of rough rehab appearances in Scranton. But maybe having the problems up here have fed into a continuing downward spiral. I know players used to never have minor league rehabs when coming of the DL, but a lot of things about the game were different then. What do you think?
Yeah, it’s possible, though Luke Weaver wasn’t lights-out before the injury, remember. He had three shaky outings right before going on the injured list. I can’t say I blame the Yankees for bringing Weaver back when and how they did either. He threw live BP, he said he felt good, and the bullpen was a mess. It’s not uncommon for short relievers to skip a rehab assignment entirely, and return from a fairly minor injury after a live BP or two. Weaver looked great Wednesday. It was easily his best outing since returning, so hopefully that’s a sign he’s coming around. It was his eighth appearance since coming off the injured list. After that many appearances, the no rehab assignment excuse has run out, and it’s on Weaver to pitch well. He’s had enough innings to shake off any rust.
Sandeep asks: Clarke Schmidt. Can’t believe I’m asking this because when healthy he continues to get better and better, but if it’s TJS, is he a non-tender? On the one hand he’s a super 2 so you pay year 3 while he rehabs to have him for year 4 (and maaaaaaaybe the very end of year 3). But on the other hand it’s TJS 2 at that point so what can you reasonably expect?
I don't think there's any chance Schmidt gets non-tendered this offseason. If things go wrong with his rehab and it looks like the second UCL is a dud, and he needs another revision, then yes, he’s a non-tender candidate, but there’s not enough runway between now and the non-tender deadline for that to happen. It’s usually not until guys start throwing again that we find out the Tommy John surgery didn’t take. Schmidt is months away from that.
Schmidt is making $3.6M this year, his second year of arbitration as a Super Two. He made only 14 starts this season (only 16 last season, remember), so his raise won’t be significant. Maybe a $5M or so salary in 2026, and Tommy John guys don’t get arbitration raises after missing a full season unless they have a Cy Young, All-Star Games, etc. We can safely pencil Schmidt in for the same salary in 2027 as 2026.
These are the Yankees, not the cheap ass Pirates or Rays. They can pay Schmidt $5M or whatever to rehab in 2026 with an eye on him contributing in 2027, his final season of team control. It’s not like there’s so much pitching to go around these days. And if Schmidt’s rehab goes poorly next year, you non-tender him after the season. A non-tender this winter would really surprise. Next year, we wait and see.
Lynn asks: With everything that Major League Baseball has done to try and create competitive balance, do you think MLB can/should do something to curb the significant it advantage West Coast teams have in signing Japanese stars? If so, what would you suggest?
Every location has its advantages. West Coast teams are attractive to Asian players, East Coast teams can have an easier time luring Latin American players (Juan Soto reportedly wanted to stay on the East Coast), guys gravitate to the Diamondbacks because they’ve been with teams who hold Spring Training in Arizona and live there in the offseason (like Corbin Burnes), so on and so forth. I think the “all Asian players go to the West Coast” problem is overstated. Seiya Suzuki signed with the Cubs and Kodai Senga, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Masataka Yoshida all signed with East Coast teams in recent years. Guys want to play with Shohei Ohtani, that’s understandable, plus the Dodgers are good every year and pay top dollar. Had an East Coast team stepped up and offered Yoshinobu Yamamoto, say, $375M or $400M, he’s probably playing on the East Coast. I don’t think anything needs to be done about this. Players should be able to choose where they play. The league shouldn’t change the rules to nudge them elsewhere, or compensate teams in any way.
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
John G
Best win of the season! Still a lot of issues (like the pen and 3B) but not looking like the season is over anymore. Pretty depressing we are talking about McMahon as the best possible option (which is why they should have done something about this potion in the last 2 years, ugh)
Sammy C
Munoz was a victim of his own brilliance. Apparently he had retired the last nine batters he'd faced. Essentially 3 perfect innings in 3 appearances. Also, his June was also practically perfect. 3 up 3 down mostly. The Yankees actually helped him discover his tipping proclivities. It won't be an easy fix either though. If Raleigh sets up early, runners on second can relay that too.
