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May 16th, 2025: Cabrera, Rice, Extra Innings, Grisham, Mailbag
🕑 Added 2025-05-16 10:00:08 +0000 UTCI did not need another reason to detest Rob Manfred, but he gave me one anyway. Ignoring the Pete Rose of it all, Shoeless Joe Jackson and the 1919 Black Sox threw a World Series. You would think throwing a World Series would be a zero tolerance item, but nah. It has been a long time since the commissioner was an actual steward of the game and not a lackey for the owners, but Bud Selig was way better at hiding it. Manfred seemingly has zero concern for the industry he is charged with protecting. He sucks. That’s all I’m going to say about that. Here now is today’s post.
1. Weekday thoughts. Do you ever wonder what it would be like to be as good at anything as Aaron Judge is at baseball? Where you just tower over everyone else (figuratively, but I guess also literally in his case)? Judge is a team-first guy to the max, but he’s not oblivious to how good he is. Just look at how he played his extension talks/free agency. He leads baseball in basically everything right now, including with +4.0 fWAR and +3.6 bWAR. That’s pretty much an All-Star season, and Judge got there in 43 games. What a player, man. Here are a few thoughts on the Mariners series.
Win it for Waldo
What should have been a fun 11-5 win Monday was instead somber and gut-wrenching. Oswaldo Cabrera had to be taken off the field in an ambulance after wrecking his left ankle scoring on a sac fly in the ninth inning. I won’t link to the video because it’s pretty gnarly (you can easily find it if you really want to see it), but Cabrera’s foot was twisted sideways. Trainer Tim Lentych consoling Cabrera while waiting for the ambulance was heartbreaking.
"He’s one of the best human beings in the clubhouse,” Trent Grisham told Erik Boland after the game. “It stings and hurts a lot to see somebody that’s so good – the best of us – go down like that.”
Among players, only Judge has been in the organization longer than Cabrera, who is a beloved teammate and an all-around delightful and joyful fellow. He always has a smile on his face, always plays hard, and always brings the energy. The guy would play two positions at once if the Yankees asked him to. Judge said Cabrera asked him if he scored the run – a pretty low stakes run with the Yankees already up five in the ninth – as they carted him off the field. Yeah, that’s Oswaldo.
“Classic Cabby. He was in amazing spirits and making us feel good and grateful to see us all,” Aaron Boone told Greg Joyce after the team visited Cabrera following Monday’s game. “… All things considered, the early rounds of things, good news considering they didn’t have to do emergency surgery and things like that. Hopefully over the next couple days we know exactly what we’re dealing with and start the mending process. If and when they do surgery, they’ll go in there and get a better idea when they’re in there of what exactly is needed, and then we’ll see.”
The Yankees called the injury a “left ankle fracture” and Cabrera was on the Steinbrenner family’s private plane back to New York on Tuesday. He was set to see a few more doctors this week and they’ll determine the next steps and whether he needs surgery. Given what the injury looked like, I would be surprised if he doesn’t need surgery, but who knows. We could get a more substantial update later today. I hope we see Cabrera again this year. I can’t say I’m expecting it. It was a pretty ugly injury.
Cabrera hasn’t been great or anything (.243/.322/.308 and 85 wRC+), but the Yankees are already down Jazz Chisholm Jr., and now they’re down the heavy side of their third base platoon. Also, Cabrera is better than the other tomato cans the Yankees are running out there at second and third base these days. The 8-9 lineup spots are going to be pretty black hole-y the next few weeks. (Like seriously, if Oswald Peraza is ever gonna do something, now’s the time to do it.)
The Yankees had to activate DJ LeMahieu on Tuesday anyway, his 20-day rehab window was up, and the Cabrera injury opened the roster spot. I figured the Yankees would send Jorbit Vivas down to Triple-A to make room for LeMahieu because, with Chisholm sidelined, they wouldn’t want to sacrifice infield depth by DFAing Peraza or Pablo Reyes, then the Cabrera injury made the decision for them. I feel like the whole “it’ll take care of itself” thing has been taken to the extreme this year.
LeMahieu went 1-for-3 with a walk in his first start of the season Wednesday and please please please do more of that. He started at second with Vivas at third. I guess the Yankees don’t think LeMahieu has the arm for third anymore? Otherwise it doesn’t make sense to put the soon-to-be 37-year-old coming off a calf injury at the up-the-middle position. Well, whatever. The takeaway here is the Yankees need Chisholm back and they need a third baseman. They needed one before Cabrera’s injury. Now they really need one.
The Yankees are fortunate Anthony Volpe’s shoulder scare a few weeks ago was just a scare and not an actual injury. He drove the ball pretty well on Monday’s homer (video). Seems like the shoulder is okay. Cabrera’s ankle is not though. He’s going to be out awhile. And with Chisholm sidelined too, the Yankees are running out of Major League caliber infielders. Maybe LeMahieu will surprise us, maybe Peraza will finally give the Yankees a reason to play him. We’ll see. For now, I’m bummed for Cabrera. What a shame.
Boone outfoxes Wilson (and a note on Rice)
Wednesday’s game was shaping up to be one of those sleepy, frustrating, getaway day losses that turn a potential 4-2 road trip into a blah 3-3 trip. The Yankees then scored a run in the sixth, seventh, and eighth innings to come back and turn that L into a W. Judge hit the go-ahead homer (video) and the bullpen was lights-out. The bullpen Tuesday and Wednesday: 9 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 14 K. The one run was the automatic runner in extra innings Tuesday.
The game-tying run scored on Paul Goldschmidt’s second career pinch-hit homer (video) – the first came as a rookie in 2011, when Jasson Domínguez was eight years old – and Mariners manager Dan Wilson gift-wrapped the Yankees a Goldschmidt vs. LHP at-bat. Wilson went to Gabe Speier, the only lefty in his bullpen, for the J.C. Escarra/Jorbit Vivas/Trent Grisham lane. Wilson had to expect Goldschmidt that inning, and this is not a guy you want to let face a lefty:
Goldy vs. RHP: .283/.342/.354 (93 wRC+)
Goldy vs. LHP: .571/.634/1.057 (370 wRC+)
Even against a righty reliever, Escarra and Vivas are unlikely to start a rally, and Grisham’s hit lefties well this year (and throughout his career). Wilson had to know using Speier would put Goldschmidt at the plate at some point. Credit to Boone for using Goldschmidt right away too, to lead off the inning given his on-base skills. He didn’t hold him back just to see whether someone could get on and he could play for the multi-run homer. Goldschmidt tied it, Judge won it an inning later, and Luke Weaver slammed the door. Good win.
"For most of my career, I was playing every day and knew I wasn’t pinch-hitting. Coming here, it’s a little bit of a different role. I’ve just tried to embrace that. It was exciting for something new,” Goldschmidt told Josh Kirshenbaum. “I think that makes it a little different, when you understand that you’re going to be called on to pinch-hit or play defense, versus other times when I was maybe playing every single day, and when I got the off-day I was really trying to rest.”
Boone used all four of his bench players that inning. Goldschmidt pinch-hit for Escarra, Reyes pinch-hit for Vivas, then Goldschmidt stayed in to play first, Austin Wells replaced Reyes and took over behind the plate, and Oswald Peraza replaced Ben Rice and played third. The cleaner set of moves would have been:
Pinch-hit Goldschmidt for Escarra and leave him in to play first.
Pinch-hit Peraza for Vivas and leave him in to play third.
Shift Rice from first base to catcher.
Rice has caught three times this year and four times in his MLB career, and every single time it was the ninth inning of a blowout. The Yankees insist Rice is a good defender and they aren’t giving up on him behind the plate. Their usage tells us they don’t trust him back there in close games, otherwise shifting him to catcher and giving Wells a full day off Wednesday would have been the play.
I’m not criticizing Boone. If they don’t trust Rice behind the plate enough to use him in close games, then don’t use him in close games. I just wanted to point this out and say hopefully Rice at catcher in close games is something they can work toward, and Rice can gain that trust. It would open a lot of doors for the Yankees, including another way to get Rice in the lineup when everyone is healthy (lol). Wednesday’s substitutions were a bit convoluted and used the entire bench in one inning. Rice getting better at catcher would create more flexibility in the future.
A different team in extra innings on the road
I warned you the Yankees would play extra innings in Seattle. They’ve done it each of the last four years now, and the Yankees are 1-3 in those games. The final scores: 1-0, 1-0, 2-1 (win), 2-1. Outscored 5-3 in four extra-inning games. Stupid T-Mobile Park. Tuesday’s loss dropped the Yankees to 12-25 in extra-inning road games since the automatic runner became a thing in 2020. That is the worst record in baseball.
“When you don’t score in the extra innings, it puts the home team at a real advantage, so we were kind of up against it there,” Boone told Kirshenbaum following Tuesday’s loss. “But we threw the ball really well tonight.”
The Yankees have played five individual extra innings on the road this season and have scored zero runs. Not once did they bring home the automatic runner. The road extra-inning woes are entirely on the offense. It ain’t the pitchers. Back in March, Grant Brisbee (subs. req’d) noted the automatic runner has wiped out home field advantage in extra innings. Road teams win more extra-inning games than home teams these days. Someone please tell the Yankees. They must’ve accidentally sent the memo to spam.
The extra-inning problems are limited to the road too. The Yankees are 25-13 in home extra-inning games since 2020. That’s the best record in baseball. They’re the best home extra innings team and the worst road extra innings team of the automatic runner era. Please make it make sense. This has gone on for a while now and I can’t help but wonder if it’s taking on a mind of its own, and guys are pressing. The Yankees saw 28 pitches in two extra innings Tuesday:
They took fastballs in the zone and swung at non-fastballs on the edges of the zone and off the plate. Are the Yankees collectively pressing? The at-bat quality noticeably deteriorated in extra innings Tuesday. The Yankees were not disciplined. It’s a hard game, and the pitch that looks like an obvious ball on television is not always an obvious ball to the guy in the box, but there were some “why are you swinging at that?” pitches Tuesday. Also a few “why didn’t you swing at that?” pitches. Almost every hitter the Yankees sent to the plate looked like he was Trying To Do Too Much.
Wednesday’s win “improved” the Yankees to 5-9 in one-run games and 8-14 in games decided by two or fewer runs. The Yankees have found ways to lose more often than they’ve found ways to win close games this season. These games count in the standings, for sure, but also one-run games are essentially coin flips. One bounce, one pitch, one call can change the outcome dramatically. One-run games aren’t the best measure of a team’s true talent or clutchiness or anything.
The Yankees are 10-2 in blowouts (5+ runs) and that’s a great sign. One-run games can be a bit random whereas the best teams have the best records in blowouts. You can get to the postseason with a fluky record in one-run games (see: 2023 Marlins). Teams that blow their opponents out frequently have staying power and are, without fail, the best teams in the sport each year, and almost once a series the Yankees have run the other team out of the building this season.
I’m getting sidetracked though. I don’t know if it’s just dumb luck that the Yankees have been unable to win road extra-inning games the last few years, if they’re pressing, if there’s a flaw in their playing style, or what. Whatever it is, I hate it. They have no problem winning extra-inning games at home. On the road though, it’s almost like a completely different team once they get to the tenth inning. It’s aggravating.
(Stumbled on a fun stat while writing this: Judge is 5-for-7 with two doubles, nine intentional walks, and one unintentional walk in extra innings the last three years. That’s an .882 OBP.)
Grisham’s defense
What is up with Grisham’s defense lately? He’s gotten turned around several times the last three weeks or so. I don’t think Grisham had a chance to catch Cal Raleigh’s double Tuesday anyway (Statcast had it at 0% catch probability), but he took the scenic route to the ball:
The line drive right at you is the toughest play for an outfielder, but still, that wasn’t the first time Grisham looked out of it in center. Remember this and this? Grisham’s at -5 DRS (!) and -1 OAA. Statcast puts his catch success rate at 84%, a tick below his 85% estimated success rate based on the batted balls hit his way. Earlier in his career he was 4-5 percentage points up in success rate vs. estimated. Both the numbers and eye test say Grisham’s defense has been down this year.
Defensive slumps happen. A few weeks ago Cabrera was airmailing every other throw into the camera well/dugout. Volpe tends to bunch his bobbles and poor throws together for a short period of time. Defense can slump just like offense and Grisham’s defense is slumping right now. The bat has been so good (so good!) that he’s still a net positive. He’s just become a bat-first player. Go figure, right? Hopefully this is just a funk and Grisham snaps out of it. Been kinda weird to see him misplay so many balls lately.
Miscellany
Career high nine strikeouts for Will Warren on Wednesday (video). He wasn’t as sharp as he was last time out in Sacramento, but he was very good overall. Back-to-back good starts for the first time in his career. Warren threw 13 curveballs against the Mariners. He threw eight curveballs in his previous three starts combined, and had never thrown more than seven in a game at any level in a Statcast league. Warren brought the curveball back in Spring Training and has stuck with it … One more note on Warren: Escarra has caught his last three starts and five of his last six starts. Seems like that pairing is becoming a thing (they were together some in Scranton last year). I’ve softened on personal catchers over the years. I used to hate them. Now I don’t really care. Wells can’t catch every game and Warren/Escarra seem to work well together. If this helps the Yankees get the most out of their rookie starter, then go for it … Remember when Clarke Schmidt was a five-and-fly starter a few years ago? Now he’s able to complete six innings on fewer than 100 pitches even when not razor sharp. Schmidt has completed six innings in each of his last two starts, including Monday night in Seattle. In 2023, his first full season as a starter, he completed six innings twice in his first 19 starts. Schmidt stepped into Marcus Stroman’s rotation spot and what an upgrade that has been … Max Fried had to work for every out Tuesday, but because he’s so good, his off-night was one run in five innings. His ERA jumped all the way to 1.11. Since Carlos Carrasco’s last start, the starters have a 2.58 ERA (3.16 FIP) and are averaging 5.8 innings per start (12 games). That is much more like it … Wells has struck out five times in his last 12 games and 45 plate appearances (11.1 K%). He isn’t walking (three walks in his last 19 games and 76 plate appearances), but he isn’t striking out either … Goldschmidt’s pinch-hit homer Wednesday was already the third of the season for the Yankees. Peraza had one in a blowout and Grisham had that very cool game-tying pinch-hit homer against the Padres. The Yankees have three pinch-hit homers this year after hitting three pinch-hit homers from 2022-24. They haven’t had more than three in a season since 2019 (four). They won’t break the franchise record (10 in 1961), but it’s only May and the Yankees have already hit more pinch-hit homers than they have in quite a while, and part of that is having more good players than lineup spots. Goldschmidt and Grisham aren’t coming off the bench to hit pinch-hit homers if they’re in the starting lineup, you know?
Injury updates
Luis Gil (lat) is progressing with his throwing program but is still 2-3 weeks away from getting on a mound. Figure two weeks until he’s on a mound, two weeks of bullpens, two weeks of live BPs, then 3-4 rehab starts. That puts Gil on track to return around the All-Star break. Lat strains are always a slow rehab, plus the Yankees are gonna be cautious with him, so yeah. Gil will be back when he’s back … Giancarlo Stanton (elbows) could travel to Tampa this week to begin taking live at-bats and really ramp up his rehab work. Nothing set in stone yet, but he’s getting closer … Jonathan Loáisiga (elbow) is up to six rehab appearances: 7.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 9 K. Statcast says his sinker has sat 94-96 mph with a few 97s. The tentative plan has Loáisiga pitching back-to-back days Saturday and Sunday. If those go well, I reckon he could be activated sometime next week.
Up next
The Yankee Stadium leg of the 2025 Subway Series and Juan Soto’s return to the Bronx. I’ve seen a few talking heads say it will be “interesting to see” how Soto is received and lol no. He’s gonna get booed like he’s the love child of Jose Altuve and David Ortiz. There have been scattered “Fuck Juan So-to!” chants at Yankee Stadium all season. What do you think is gonna happen when the man himself is in the building?
Personally, I’m hoping for a “Grish-am’s bet-ter!” chant, but whatever happens is whatever happens. Just get the guy out. That’s all I really care about. Here’s the weekend schedule:
Friday vs. Mets: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Tylor Megill (7pm ET on YES, WPIX)
Saturday vs. Mets: RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. RHP Griffin Canning (1pm ET on YES, SNY)
Sunday vs. Mets: LHP Max Fried vs. LHP David Peterson (7pm ET on ESPN)
Monday: off-day
This weekend is (the first annual?) Rivalry Weekend. Good idea, poor execution. MLB is highlighting interleague rivalries (Yankees/Mets, Athletics/Giants, Dodgers/Angels, etc.) rather than actual rivalries (Yankees/Red Sox, Cubs/Cardinals, Dodgers/Giants, etc.). Yankees/Mets will have the juice. Not sure about some of the other interleague rivalries the league is focusing on this weekend.
It will be another rainy weekend in New York but it looks like the Mets and Yankees will be in the clear. There shouldn’t be any lengthy delays or a postponement. The Mets have really taken it to the Yankees the last few years. They went 4-0 against the Yankees last year and are 12-6 against them since 2021. In the end, it’s just one series in May, but it’s always good to see how you stack up against the league’s top teams. Go win those bragging rights, Yankees.
2. 2025 draft prospect: Florida HS IF/OF Sean Gamble. The 2025 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 39 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I like for whatever reason. We’re covering a little of everything.
Gamble, 18, has an interesting backstory. He’s from Iowa and his brother used to attend tennis camps in Florida in the summer. While there, a coach at the academy liked Gamble’s athleticism, and invited him to play baseball. He played four years of high school ball in Florida and has become a Day 1 draft prospect. Here’s where Gamble places in the latest draft prospect rankings:
Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 51
ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 23
FanGraphs: No. 51
MLB Pipeline: No. 21
Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 42
Gamble is committed to Vanderbilt and the Yankees have drafted more than their fair share of Vanderbilt players (Bryce Cunningham, Greysen Carter, Spencer Jones) and Vanderbilt commits (George Lombard Jr., Anthony Volpe) the last few years. He is right in their wheelhouse. Here’s video and here’s a chunk of MLB Pipeline’s free scouting report:
Gamble is a left-handed hitter who has a smooth and repeatable swing with a knack for finding the barrel, controlling the zone and doing damage to all fields. As he's gaining strength, he's showing more raw power and should continue to leverage the ball and get to more extra-base authority as he moves along. He had quality at-bats all summer to raise his profile.
An above-average runner, Gamble saw a lot of time in center field over the summer and looked good there, with some evaluators leaning towards favoring him in the outfield, where his athleticism and arm strength play well. Some don't want to give up on him on the dirt, though, thinking he could be an above-average defender at second base and/or be given a shot at shortstop. The Vanderbilt recruit plays with a little edge to his game and reminds some of the Phillies' Bryson Stott.
FanGraphs says Gamble put “multiple balls in the Chase Field pool” during a showcase event last year, which is pretty big power for a high school kid. Law (subs. req’d) says he’s “more athlete than hitter right now,” which isn’t surprising considering he hasn’t been focused on baseball that long. Gamble is raw even by high school prospect standards. There’s reason to believe there’s untapped ability. Potentially a lot of it.
Buying a high pick away from Vanderbilt is not cheap – the Yankees had to give Lombard and Volpe above slot bonuses – and Gamble has a little extra leverage because he’ll be able to re-enter the draft early as a draft-eligible sophomore. The No. 39 pick has a $2,509,500 slot value and the Yankees could stretch that to $3M or $3.5M, though it would require below slot deals in the later rounds. I could see the Yankees having interest in Gamble, but the money not working. I dunno.
3. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees have signed another veteran pitcher to stash in Scranton: Anthony DeSclafani. They gave him a minor league deal earlier this week. Now 35, DeSclafani has not pitched since 2023 because of arm trouble, and he hasn’t been healthy and effective at the same time since 2021. Still, it’s a minor league deal, so no risk. He must be healthy if the Yankees signed him, so see what he looks like in Triple-A, and if he can help the Yankees at some point, great. If not, then no big deal … Team USA captain Aaron Judge has his ace for the 2026 World Baseball Classic team: Paul Skenes. Skenes committed to the WBC earlier this week. That guy must want nothing to do with the Pirates. Can’t say I blame him. Fair to say Skenes is the biggest pitching star USA has ever had in the WBC? I think so. 43-year-old Roger Clemens was on the 2006 team, R.A. Dickey pitched in the 2013 WBC right after winning the 2012 NL Cy Young, and peak Jake Peavy pitched in the 2006 and 2009 WBCs. Yeah, I think Skenes now is a bigger star now then those guys were then. Good chance for Judge to plant the seed about how great it is to be a Yankee. It’s not tampering when the guy is your teammate!
Mailbag Questions of the Week
Noa asks: Any thoughts on trading Trent Grisham? You would have to imagine this is selling high on him. I don't think they would re-sign him in the winter and you have the outfield logjam of Dominguez, Bellinger, Grisham, Judge. Would help resolve things when Stanton gets back too (I know these things have a way of working themselves out). Maybe trade Grisham for a 2nd/3rd baseman and then put Jazz at the other spot.
I get the logic but that would be a tough sell for me. Grisham has been so good and the goal is to win the World Series right now, while Aaron Judge is doing this. For a Grisham trade to make sense, you have to trade him to a fellow contender (because he’s a rental) who can send you a plug-and-play infielder. How many teams can do that? Just scrolling through outfield depth charts:
Guardians: Maybe if you really like Gabriel Arias or Brayan Rocchio.
Phillies: Grisham for Alec Bohm? Bohm’s hitting .258/.301/.348 (82 wRC+). Meh.
Padres: Grisham for rental Luis Arraez if you’re willing to live with his glove at second?
Royals: Grisham for Jonathan India, who’s been an awkward fit in left field?
The Yankees could trade Grisham for prospects to replenish the system (it needs it) and unclog the outfield picture, but a) you’re making the big league team worse, and b) rental bats haven’t fetched a ton the last few years. That first one is a pretty big deal, right? The Yankees are good and should add to their team, not subtract from it. One injury and this outfield logjam is unclogged.
In terms of who the team got back, the two best rental bat trades the last few years are Starling Marte for broken Jesús Luzardo, and Javy Báez for Pete Crow-Armstrong. Luzardo rebounded the next year. PCA got traded in 2021 and is putting it together now in 2025. Most rental bat trades, like Andrew Benintendi or Kris Bryant or Jeimer Candelario, bring back a few lowercase-g guys. No one who moves the needle.
I definitely would not close the door on a Grisham trade because maybe there is a Grisham for infielder trade out there that creates a more complete and functional roster. His short track record of being this plus the limited market (only contenders will want a rental) make it a difficult needle to thread. I think Grisham is more valuable to the Yankees as a player on the field than as a trade chip.
Adam asks: Let’s say Stanton is healthy, Rice is hitting like he is now and it’s late July. How crazy would it be to trade Goldschmidt for a pitcher? There probably aren’t a lot of teams that need a 1B AND have an extra pitcher but would it even make sense?
Paul Goldschmidt is a rental, so only contenders would consider trading for him, and the contenders that need a first baseman (or DH) are the Mariners, Red Sox, and maybe the Padres and Rangers. None of them have a spare pitcher to trade at this point. They’re all dealing with injuries and need to add pitching themselves, if anything. Also, rental corner bats usually don’t bring back a ton in trades, plus the Yankees need to add a righty bat, right? Not subtract their second best. Similar to the Trent Grisham trade idea, I think Goldschmidt is more valuable to the Yankees on the field than whatever he could bring back in a trade, and that is to say nothing of what looks like a pretty limited market given how few contenders need a first baseman/DH. The whole “the Yankees have more hitters who deserve to play than lineup spots” thing is going to take care of itself before long.
Vincent asks: While we obviously can't expect Grisham to continue slugging over .600 for the rest of the year and the statcast sliders all look good right now, is there anything standing out to you about Grisham's offensive performance this year that can account for this out-of-nowhere surge?
I don’t want to use the word “sustainable” because any player could stop what they’re doing at any given moment, but what Trent Grisham has done this year is not a fluke. He’s smashing the ball and deserves the results he’s gotten: .283 AVG vs. .287 xAVG, .628 SLG vs. .626 xSLG, .424 wOBA vs. .419 xwOBA, 12 HR vs. 11 xHR. 238 hitters have at least 100 plate appearances this year and, well:
Pairing a 7.0% swinging strike rate with the kinda contact that produces a .626 xSLG is best hitter in baseball stuff, and Grisham has legitimately been one of the best hitters in baseball. Juan Soto had a 7.4% swinging strike rate and .646 xSLG last year, for reference. That’s what Grisham has done at the plate this year. He’s making a ton of contact and it is loud contact. He’s been so good.
I mentioned this in a mailbag a few weeks ago: The biggest difference for Grisham is the direction of his contact. He’s replaced a good number of pop ups and grounders with line drives. He’s always been a high contact/good exit velocity guy. Now that contact is being made in a direction that leads to better results:
2024: 25.6% sweet-spot and 20.0% pulled air
2025: 36.8% sweet-spot and 24.1% pulled air
MLB averages: 33.2% sweet-spot and 16.6% pulled air
Sweet-spot rate is the percent of batted balls in the 8-32 degree launch angle range. Below that and you’re putting the ball the ground. Above that and you’re hitting high fly balls, the kind that tend to stay in the park and hang up long enough for outfielders to catch. The 8-32 degree range are the line drives that go for hits and Grisham is hitting more of them than ever this year. (He attributes his season to a mental adjustment.)
Is Grisham going to slug over .600 all year? No, probably not. Only a few guys do that across a full 162 games. But he’s earned his current .628 SLG. This isn’t a guy who’s found the short porch a few times and is juicing his numbers that way. Grisham has been legit great. Great process, great contact, great results. I hope it lasts. If he keeps doing exactly what he’s doing right now, it will.
Frank asks: I know I’m sending this late. But Devers seems to be in the middle of a falling out with the Boston front office after some recent comments. How would he look at third for us?
Fantastic compared to who the Yankees have run out there at third base this year and the last few years. The Rafael Devers thing doesn’t seem like a falling out to me. I don’t think the relationship is damaged beyond repair. Asking a poor defensive third baseman to move to first base is not unreasonable, but also the Red Sox have handled this in a very clumsy way. This is the kinda thing you have to handle behind closed doors. The Yankees and Red Sox are frequent trade partners these days but they’re fairly low stakes moves. Adam Ottavino salary dump, one year of Alex Verdugo, backup catcher Carlos Narváez, etc. There is no chance whatsoever the Yankees and Red Sox hook up for a Rafael Devers trade. Even with the bad defense though, going from the current third base situation to Devers would be an enormous upgrade. He would be the Yankees’ best third baseman since peak Alex Rodriguez, and I say that as a Gio Urshela enjoyer. (DJ LeMahieu has never started more than 67 games at third base in a season for the Yankees, and that wasn’t until 2023, when he was already on the downswing.)
Roger asks: Can Goldschmidt play third? Think of this as doing a Raffy Devers in reverse. The guy has won multiple gold gloves at the reverse infield position. Why not give it a try and put that other Gold-Glover, Bellinger, at first? Don Mattingly played three games there in 1986. Joe Torre won an MVP playing third (161 games' worth) in 1971. Harmon Killebrew stood at third for 791 games and it didn't keep him out of the Hall of Fame. Miguel Andujar stood at third for an entire season for the Yankees.
Other than one game in center field (!) in rookie ball back in 2009, Paul Goldschmidt has never played a game at a position other than first base (or DH) as a professional. Guys usually move down the defensive spectrum with age, not up, and putting a 37-year-old career first baseman at third base with no offseason or Spring Training preparation is setting him up to fail. The Braves put Freddie Freeman at third base for a bit in 2017 and he looked like a fish out of water. Freeman was only 27 at the time too, not 37. I applaud the creativity, but third base is a much different animal than first, and Goldschmidt is too deep into his career to ask him to do it. He’s at the age (beyond the age, really) when guys move to the less demanding position. I’d try Ben Rice at third before Goldschmidt.
Steve asks: Wouldn’t be the most earth shattering pick up but thoughts on Amed Rosario as a bench bat trade target? He has hit lefties good, Yankees had previous interest, on a “bad” team and isn’t making a huge salary, etc. Surface level he seems to check a lot of boxes…
Yeah, Rosario would fit well as a righty platoon bat/bench guy. He’s stretched as an everyday player at this point in his career, but he hasn’t had a sub-110 wRC+ against lefties since 2018, and he’s competent enough all over the infield. He has a little outfield experience and can run too. Rosario is a clear upgrade over Pablo Reyes and the Yankees did try to sign him last offseason, so they had interest in him in the not-too-distant past. The Nationals stink again (18-27 and -60 run differential) and it shouldn’t cost much to get him. Rosario was having a better season last year when the Rays traded him for a 27-year-old Double-A reliever at the deadline. Unless Washington sets an unreasonably high price, let’s do it. The Yankees need infield help, a better bench, and another righty bat. Rosario checks all three boxes.
Andrew asks: I'm puzzled by Judge starting in the field with Dominguez at DH on Tuesday night in Seattle. Is Judge in RF really that much better defensively than Dominguez in LF, if at all? Not to mention the benefits of getting the big man off his feet!
That was a Max Fried thing. Fried faces a lot of righties (77% of batters faced this year) and gives up a lot of fly balls and line drives to left (not a lot a lot, but enough), so the Yankees put the better defensive left fielder behind him. Same with Carlos Rodón. Jasson Domínguez has been the DH or out of the starting lineup entirely eight times this season and seven of the eight were Fried/Rodon starts. He has started behind them plenty, the Yankees aren’t completely unwilling to play Domínguez behind their two lefty starters, but when they can, they time his DH/off-days with Fried/Rodón to improve the defense. Only once this season has Aaron Judge started even five straight days in the field (days, not games). He usually doesn’t go more than four days without a DH day or a team off-day, and he played four straight days in the field leading into Thursday’s off-day. He was right on schedule Tuesday.
Dan asks: Mike, I know this is a Yankees blog, but please give us your take on the Knicks right now.
Wednesday was a letdown but I absolutely would have signed up for a 3-2 lead before the series. I figured the series would be over quickly given the whole “arguably the best 3-point shooting team ever vs. one of the worst 3-point defenses this year” thing, then the Knicks erased two 20-point deficits. They can’t keep falling behind 15+ points every night (duh) and it would be cool if a bench guy (Cam Payne?) had a big game randomly to make life a little easier. I avoid basketball analytics. I just want to turn my brain off and watch guys run fast and jump high. I find these Knicks very fun and enjoyable. Jalen Brunson is a King of New York caliber star, Mikal Bridges is pulling a 2024 Giancarlo Stanton (up and down regular season, then monster moments in the playoffs), and Josh Hart is an absolute lunatic (that's a compliment). It’s funny how it goes. I thought they would get creamed this series. Now I’ll be majorly bummed if they lose.
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
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Spookie
Unless the Yankees are willing to send Rice to the minors (no, just no) then the door should be closed on him as a catcher. The Yankees have shown precisely zero ability to improve a young player/prospect's defense at the major league level.
John
Given his laid back attitude I think I am more angry than Grisham is that they spent all of last year waiting for Verdugo to get hot when Grisham looks like this with regular run.
