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May 23rd, 2025: Domínguez, Warren, Pitching Staff, Mailbag
🕑 Added 2025-05-23 10:00:11 +0000 UTCFour years and two days ago, the Yankees turned a ninth inning 5-4-3 triple play against the White Sox. It was the first of three triple plays in a month’s time (videos). The Yankees have not turned a triple play since and they had not turned a triple play in the seven years prior to those three. They’ve bunched a lot of historic stuff together in a short period of time lately, no? The triple plays in 2021, two ultimate grand slams in 2022, and two sets of back-to-back-to-back leadoff homers in 2025. They go years, sometimes even decades, without doing this cool thing, then do it multiple times in a matter of weeks, then don’t do it again for another few years. Baseball, man. Let’s get to today’s post.
1. Weekday thoughts. I missed all but the first inning of Thursday’s game because I was sitting in a dentist’s chair and I was ready to make a “the root canal was more enjoyable than the game” joke, but hey, the Yankees won and swept the series. It was their second 1-0 win of 2025 (also this one) after none in 2024 and only one from August 2022 through 2024. The Yankees have won five straight series and 11 of their last 14 games. Banking wins now makes surviving a lull later in the year that much easier. The boys are playin’ some ball right now. Good vibes all around. Here are a few thoughts on the last few days.
At long last, a walk-off homer
Didn’t I tell you a pitching matchup as lopsided as Jacob deGrom vs. Ryan Yarbrough was a reverse lock, and the win was in the bag? For real though, the Yankees stole Wednesday’s game. deGrom was great*, the Yankees couldn’t keep Jake Burger in the park, Aaron Boone seemed determined to use only his worst relievers, yet they won anyway. Thank Aaron Judge, thank Jasson Domínguez.
“It was awesome. My first walk-off,” Domínguez told Bryan Hoch after his walk-off dinger. “The first one is always special. As soon as I hit it, I knew that was my first walk-off, and I was enjoying it.”
* That guy is cursed to an eternity of pitching brilliantly and getting little run support.
Judge tied the game with a two-out, two-strike single in the eighth inning (video). I know Cody Bellinger’s been great lately and had homered earlier in the game, but that was one of those “I can’t believe they’re pitching to Judge” situations. I would rather face literally any other hitter in a game-on-the-line situation, even if it means loading the bases for a guy who’s 19-for-50 (.380) in his last 12 games.
“Yeah, we could have walked him,” Bruce Bochy told Evan Grant about pitching to Judge. “And it might have worked out. That‘s always an option. But I didn’t want to put a pitcher in a position where he absolutely has to throw strikes to a really good hitter with no room for misses. We had two strikes. We just made a mistake. You can’t make that mistake in that situation.”
The Rangers pitched to Judge, he singled to tie the game, and that set up Domínguez for the walk-off homer an inning later (video). Luke Jackson threw an absolute hanger and Jasson did not miss it. An 85 mph cement mixer spun right into his bat:
The Yankees had not hit a walk-off homer since Sept. 20th, 2022, when Giancarlo Stanton hit a walk-off grand slam against the Pirates (Judge hit No. 60 earlier that inning). That was the longest walk-off home run drought in baseball. Every other team had hit at least one homer since then. Two weeks ago Jasson became the youngest Yankee with a three-homer game. Wednesday he became the fourth youngest Yankee with a walk-off homer. The list:
1. Gleyber Torres vs. Cleveland: 21 years and 144 days (May 6th, 2018)
2. Mickey Mantle vs. Red Sox: 21 years and 185 days (April 23rd, 1953)
3. Melky Cabrera vs. Mariners: 21 years and 341 days (July 18th, 2006)
4. Jasson Domínguez vs. Rangers: 22 years and 103 days (May 21st, 2025)
5. Joe DiMaggio vs. Senators: 22 years and 266 days (August 18th, 1937)
After the three-homer game, I mentioned Domínguez had not done much damage on middle-middle and middle-in pitches as a left-handed hitter. His homers and really all of his SLG had come on pitches down or away. Jackson’s hanger was definitely middle-middle. It was on a tee. That’s what I hope to see more of moving forward. When you get that mistake, obliterate it, Jasson. As good as he’s been against righties this year, there are gains to be made against pitches in the middle of the zone.
Yarbrough was again awesome Wednesday: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 8 K, 1 HR (video). The eight strikeouts were his most since July 2022 and the 14 swings and misses were his most since September 2023. We watched Yarbrough frustrate and silence the Yankees for years. He’s the ultimate “why aren’t they hitting this guy???” guy. It’s nice to be on the other side of it now. The Yankees signed Yarbrough five days before Opening Day. What a shot in the arm he’s been. An unsung hero two months into the season.
The bullpen usage was … interesting. Boone got caught with his pants down not having Luke Weaver ready for the ninth inning. Either they didn’t get Weaver ready in time or they wanted Yerry De Los Santos (in his second inning of work) on the mound for matchup reasons with the score tied in the ninth inning. Fortunately Weaver retired all three batters he faced on six pitches after De Los Santos allowed a leadoff single, but yeah, he should have been at least loosening after Trent Grisham walked in the eighth to put the rally in motion.
Anyway, Domínguez has been an absolute force against righties this season: .298/.391/.511 (165 wRC+). Lefties are a problem, we know that, but he’s a difference-making hitter as a lefty. There’s thunder in his bat, he’s willing to work the count (13.6 BB%), and he’s not-so-sneaky fast (61% extra-base taken rate!). The defense and righty swing have to improve. Everything else? Out of this world.
“He’s fun to be around because he’s got a good outlook on things,” Boone told Hoch. “But you’re really starting to see how good a talent he is. You see him run, you see the speed, you see the power. He’s gotten some big hits for us too.”
Will Warren? He will!
Third very good to great start in a row for Will Warren on Thursday: 5.2 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 K (video) on 101 pitches. I admit to being nervous in the moment, but I like that Boone let Warren stay in to face Marcus Semien with the bases loaded in the sixth. It was a walk and two bloop singles. The Rangers were not hitting him hard. Boone showed faith in the rookie and Warren struck out Semien to end his night.
“That was awesome,” Warren told Hoch about staying in to face Semien. “I’m going to go and give it my all until I’ve got nothing left. I’m glad he left me in that situation.”
Two weeks ago I said Warren’s two-out, two-strike changeup to JJ Bleday was the single best pitch he’d thrown in his big league career. That has been replaced by this dotted sinker to Wyatt Langford. A righty can not throw a 3-2 down-and-away sinker to a righty better than this:
Warren peppered that outside corner to righties with sinkers all night, including 12 (!) for a called strike on pitches that ran back and caught the corner. When you do that, you force hitters to respect the sinker that is off the plate away, because it could come back and nip the corner. And when hitters have to respect the sinker that is off the plate, you get swings like this on the sweeper:
Warren also continued to lean into his curveball. He threw eight Tuesday after throwing 13 in his previous start. Those are the two highest curveball totals of his career, in any game at any level (Statcast leagues only). The curve has a 56.5% whiff rate. Some of that is the surprise factor, I’m sure the curveball whiff rate will come down once the league adjusts, but right now, Warren is using the pitch masterfully.
Stuff has never been an issue with Warren. Stuff+ says he has three above-average pitches (curveball, sinker, sweeper) plus a fourth average pitch (four-seamer). His troubles always come down to execution. Too much nibbling, too many mistakes in the heart of the plate, that kinda thing. These last three starts he’s been more aggressive in the zone, particularly in pitchers’ counts, and his mistakes are off the plate.
First 7 starts: 4.37 pitches per batter
Last 3 starts: 3.94 pitches per batter
MLB average: 3.88 pitches per batter
Warren has knocked 0.43 pitches per batter off his rate these last three starts. That adds up quick. Almost half-a-pitch per batter when you average 21 batters per start is an extra 10 pitches, give or take. That’s an extra two batters per start. That’s pitching a little deeper into the game, saving the bullpen, etc. Warren’s been on the attack these last three starts. That’s the best way I can put it.
“Be aggressive in the zone, I guess,” Warren told Hoch about his recent success. “Like I’ve said, if we execute our pitches, I think we’re going to have success.”
The overall numbers are good (4.05 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 3.65 xERA, 29.7 K%, 8.9 BB%) and getting better. The guy on the mound now looks nothing like the guy we saw a few weeks ago, when Warren could only go four innings against the sad sack Pirates. He’s credited Matt Blake (via Gary Phillips) and Gerrit Cole (via Brendan Kuty) for helping him adjust his mindset and be confident. The arrow, it’s pointing up.
“I do think that, yes, there’s a confidence factor that has changed,” Warren told Phillips. “It’s like, ‘Alright, I’m gonna just throw this.’ And I might miss middle, but I gotta be okay with, ‘This is convicted, and he’s not gonna do any damage on it.’ And sometimes they will.”
The rotation's May turnaround
Carlos Rodón allowed one run in 5.1 innings on Opening Day and then 4, 6, and 4 runs in his next three starts. Since then, he’s allowed eight runs total in seven starts, and four of the eight came in one game (three on one swing). The Dón is down to a 2.88 ERA (3.41 FIP) with a 31.0 K%. He has been outstanding lately. The veteran stabilizer the Yankees need him to be and then some.
Two months into a season in which Gerrit Cole and reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil have thrown a combined zero pitches, the Yankees are sporting a top 10 pitching staff, and it’s been even better than that the last four weeks or so. Here are the big picture full season ranks:
ERA: 3.42 (7th in MLB)
FIP: 3.53 (5th)
fWAR: +6.8 (6th)
bWAR: +6.4 (6th)
The Yankees are also third in Baseball Prospectus’ Deserved Run Average, which factors in the contact of quality allowed. It wasn’t that long ago that it felt like the Yankees were facing a pitching crisis. How quickly and how drastically things can change in this game (that quick turnaround is also a reminder to not get too high on the pitching just yet).
Carlos Carrasco made his last start on April 30th. The rotation’s before and after numbers tell the story:
Through April 30th: 4.25 ERA (4.27 FIP) and 5.0 innings per start
Since May 1st: 2.26 ERA (2.74 FIP) and 5.7 innings per start
So much of the rotation’s improvement stems from just getting Carrasco and Marcus Stroman out of there. The timing worked out in such a way that Clarke Schmidt stepped into Stroman’s rotation spot when he returned, and Yarbrough has been so good in his spot starts (when the Yankees weren’t using off-days to skip that rotation spot). Warren is beginning to put it together too. Rodón and Max Fried have been great.
The rotation is neither really as sketchy as it was in April nor is it really as dominant as it has been in May. The truth is in the middle somewhere and eventually water will find its level. Right now, the rotation is on a roll. Every night the guy on the mound is not just giving the Yankees a chance to win, he's excelling. I can’t say I expected a 2.26 ERA month without Cole and Gil though. The days of the Yankees struggling to cobble together a competent rotation around their high-priced starters are long over.
Cruz out, Headrick in
The Yankees get one reliever back (Jonathan Loáisiga) and immediately lose another (Fernando Cruz). Cruz is on the injured list with right shoulder inflammation. Tests showed no structural damage, only inflammation, and he received a cortisone shot. He’s already started playing catch and the Yankees are hopeful it will be the minimum 15 days, but we’ll see.
“They told me that they’re gonna be aggressive with it,” Cruz told Phillips. “They put a shot in me and the shot just numbed my arm for the next two days. Now I’m getting back to strengthening it and getting it ready. Nothing is wrong. We got images. We got an MRI. Everything looks good. Everything looks normal. But I still feel like the shot put my arm in a weak position. Hopefully the next days will be better and we’ll be back strong for the most important stages of the season. We’re gonna be back soon.”
Personal fave Brent Headrick was called up to replace Cruz, giving the Yankees two lefties. I know Tim Hill is a ground ball monster (74.2%), but Boone has to stop using him against righties with power. He’s given up homers to Burger, Vlad Guerrero Jr., and Cal Raleigh (switch-hitter) within the last few weeks. Righties are giving Hill a hard time …
Hill vs. RHB: .311/.354/.578 (.400 wOBA) with 6.56 FIP
Hill vs. LHB: .086/.158/.086 (.125 wOBA) with 2.62 FIP
… and hopefully Headrick, who’s sitting mid-90s in short relief and has a 50.0% whiff rate on his slider this year, could take on some of that lefty reliever workload. We’ll see though. The Yankees go to Coors Field this weekend and swapping out relievers (De Los Santos, Headrick, etc.) for fresh arms may be needed at some point. I hope Headrick performs well and sticks though. I am: intrigued.
Cruz has been so good this year (2.66 ERA and 2.49 FIP with 37.6 K%) and a workhorse. Seven times in 21 appearances he got at least four outs. Loáisiga will step into Cruz’s late-inning spot. Devin Williams looks much better – the fastball command is better and the whiffs are coming back – and Mark Leiter Jr. has really been great overall. Weaver got the save, but Leiter got the biggest out of Tuesday’s game when he struck out Joc Pederson to strand the bases loaded with the Yankees up two in the sixth (video).
Ian Hamilton is going through it right now. He’s walking almost one out of every five batters and he gave up a second deck tank to Sam Haggerty (?!?) Wednesday. Hamilton was great in 2023, but that leash will run out eventually. He has an option remaining and injuries might be keeping him on the roster right now. If Headrick performs well and Hamilton doesn’t get his act together, could be an interesting little roster decision when Cruz is ready to return.
Weaver pitched in all three games of the Rangers series but his pitch counts were low: 2, 6, and 10. He retired every batter he faced in the series and averaged 2.6 pitches per out. Even while pitching three straight days, Weaver’s thrown 20 pitches in the last eight days. A more than manageable workload. Several Yankees have pitched three straight days in the postseason the last few years, but Weaver was the first to do it in the regular season since Aroldis Chapman in September 2021, when the Yankees were trying to nail down a postseason berth.
Williams blew a save against the Blue Jays on April 25th and was demoted out of the closer’s role the next day. Everything began to fall into place after that. The rotation has been great and so has the bullpen. Cruz has been such a weapon and I hope this shoulder issue a minor blip. The Yankees can’t quite seem to get whole. One guy comes back, another gets hurt. What else is new?
Miscellany
Trent Grisham snapped an 0-for-14 with two hits Tuesday. Ben Rice had two hits, including a left-on-left homer (video), in that game after a 4-for-21. Other than Judge going from historically great to godlike, Grisham and Rice are the two biggest reasons the offense has exceeded my expectations. Glad they got off those little skids in fairly short order … As for Judge, he’s definitely a little off at the plate right now. He’s swung through a lot of pitches in the zone lately. And yet, Judge went 6-for-22 (.273) with a homer on the homestand. Even when he’s a tick off, he’s producing. Everything about his 2025 is just unbelievable … And finally, Oswald Peraza made the best tarp catch by a Yankee in a while Tuesday (video). He’s had a few weirdly bad defensive plays, but that was a cool one.
Injury updates
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (oblique) will start hitting against the high velocity machine soon, if he hasn’t already. He says he doesn’t need a rehab assignment, but, uh, please send him on a rehab assignment. Chisholm hasn’t faced a real pitcher since April 29th … Nothing new to report on Gil (lat) or Stroman (knee), who have been catch partners the last few weeks. Last week Boone said Gil is 2-3 weeks away from getting up on a mound, so he’s got another 1-2 weeks of catch ahead of him before taking the next step in his rehab.
Up next
Another West Coast trip, albeit one that starts in the Rocky Mountains. It’s a nine-game, 10-day trip. After this, the Yankees will play 16 of their next 25 games at home, and only three of those 16 games will be played against a team with a winning record (Guardians). First, the West Coast trip. Here’s what’s coming up between now and Monday’s post (Monday because I’m not staying up late that night):
Friday at Rockies: RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. TBA* (8:40pm ET on YES)
Saturday at Rockies: LHP Max Fried vs. LHP Kyle Freeland (4pm ET on YES)
Sunday at Rockies: RHP Will Warren vs. RHP Antonio Senzatela (3pm ET on YES)
* This TBA was supposed to be RHP Chase Dollander, Colorado’s top prospect and the No. 9 overall pick in the 2023 draft, but he came down with the dreaded forearm tightness after his last start. He was placed on the injured list Thursday. I have no earthly idea who the Rockies will start tonight.
This is the big leagues, and any team can beat any other team on any given night in this game, but the Yankees have to take care of business in Denver. Normally I would say it’s unreasonable to expect a sweep in any series, but the Rockies are tracking to be one of the worst teams ever. They’ve allowed 53 first inning runs in 50 games. Go in there and bury them. Put the games to bed early. Don’t let them hang around. I want Luke Weaver and Devin Williams to pitch Monday because they need work.
Colorado has been bad in every possible way (pitching, hitting, defense, baserunning, etc.) and Senzatela in particular is just astonishing: 49.2 IP, 84 H, 41 R, 35 ER, 14 BB, 25 K, 9 HR. That works out to a 6.34 ERA and 5.33 FIP, and opponents are hitting .380/.416/.570 against him. The Rockies owe Senzatela $12M this year and $12M next year. At least they pay their players. I’ll give the Rockies that much.
The Rockies are 8-42. It is the worst record in the Modern Era (since 1900) through 50 games. The 1899 Cleveland Spiders were 9-41 through 50 games en route to going 20-134. The Spiders were not your usual bad, down on their luck team. Their owner, the Robison family, traded their best players to the St. Louis Browns, the other team they owned, because it would boost attendance and make them the most money. Soon thereafter MLB prohibited owners from owning multiple teams. These Rockies are worse than those Spiders. So please, Yankees, treat them accordingly this weekend.
2. 2025 draft prospect: Arizona State OF Brandon Compton. The 2025 MLB Draft will take place during the All-Star break and the Yankees hold the No. 39 pick. Here are the draft prospects I’ve already profiled. Some are players the Yankees are reported to have interest in, some are players who fit the team’s M.O., and some are players I like for whatever reason. We’re covering a little of everything.
Compton, 21, was a two-way player in high school who gave up pitching after blowing out his elbow and needing Tommy John surgery as a senior. He’s been a mainstay in the Sun Devils’ lineup the last two seasons and is hitting .279/.385/.502 with nine homers in 55 games this year. The strikeout (20.5%) and walk (15.6%) rates, and overall performance, are just okay for a possible first rounder. Here’s where Compton slots into the latest draft prospect rankings:
Baseball America (subs. req’d): No. 39
ESPN (subs. req’d): No. 88
FanGraphs: Honorable mention
MLB Pipeline: No. 39
Keith Law (subs. req’d): No. 68
In addition to his Arizona State exploits, Compton beat up on top competition in the wood bat Cape Cod League last summer, slashing .331/.414/.489 with six homers in 38 games. Their recent draft history tells us the Yankees value performance on the Cape, but it is not the be-all, end-all. Here’s video and here is a snippet of Compton’s MLB Pipeline free scouting report:
Strong and thick, Compton can really impact the baseball from the left side of the plate, reminding some of former Sun Devils standout Kole Calhoun. In his first season with ASU, he showed the ability to drive the ball to all fields, with most of his over-the-fence pop showing up more to his pull side. His swing-and-miss and tendency to chase, especially against softer stuff, was a bit of a concern. He tightened that up on the Cape, cutting his strikeout rate and drawing more walks, making him a much more dangerous hitter overall.
Compton is going to have to hit because his other tools grade out as fringe average. He’s not a runner and while he’s an acceptable defender in the outfield, he’s likely limited to left field because he doesn’t have the kind of arm most teams like to see from their right fielder. If his offensive game continues on an upward trajectory, he still is the kind of college performer who’ll go in the early rounds.
That scouting report is a pretty good reminder that it is a long way from college to the big leagues, and so much can change. Calhoun the college player (bat-first slugger) turned into a very different player by time he became Calhoun the big leaguer (average hitter with a great glove). That’s an unusual outcome, few players change that much in pro ball, but I thought the Calhoun comp was a bit funny.
Anyway, the Yankees typically go for more athletic position players, even guys who are offense-first like Spencer Jones and Austin Wells, but when your first pick is No. 39 overall, you take what you can get. Compton is an exit velocity dude (up to 116 mph this spring) and the Yankees love those. If they think more highly of his defense than that scouting report, then you needn’t try hard to see him on their short list of targets for that No. 39 pick.
3. Rapid fire thoughts. Forgot to mention this in Monday’s post: Ben Rice has started taking ground balls at third base. Aaron Boone told Peter Botte to “not necessarily read anything into it,” and Rice said he is “just doing it for fun right now,” but it’s at least mildly interesting. I will say that guys work out at different positions before BP all the time. I couldn’t tell you how many times I watched Gary Sánchez take grounders at shortstop back in the day. Sometimes it’s just to break up the monotony of the long season, sometimes there really is something to it. The Yankees should add a real third baseman and stop the square peg/round hole stuff, but there’s nothing wrong with telling Rice to go stand there and make some throws, and see what it looks like.
Mailbag Questions of the Week
The mailbag inbox is overstuffed at the moment. This is not a complaint. Thank you for all the questions. I just feel bad because I can’t get to them all. Please don’t be discouraged if I don’t answer your question. I read every single one and pick the ones I can answer either right away or in the near future. If I don’t pick yours, keep trying. Thanks for the questions and your support.
Federico asks: figured you'll be getting this asked a lot and I know there's a 99.9% chance that it never happens. But, PAUL SKENES! Let's say the Pirates are listening. What would it take? I believe every player in the organization will be made available, right?
The Pirates are so bad, man. They were 17-33 going into Thursday’s game and only 3-7 when Skenes starts even though he has a 2.44 ERA (2.76 FIP) and averages 6.2 innings per start. The Pirates have to go 59-53 the rest of the way just to match last year’s 76-86 record, which wasn’t even good! Pittsburgh’s ownership and front office have failed that fan base every which way. Great city, great ballpark, rich franchise history, lousy team. Shame.
This is purely hypothetical because Skenes isn’t going anywhere, but yeah, everyone in the organization is on the table for him. The Pirates won’t want Aaron Judge, Max Fried, or any other well-paid Yankees. They’ll want the largest package of cheap young players possible. Is there even a reference point for a trade of this magnitude? 4.5 years of a legit superstar making no money? Miguel Cabrera was traded two years before free agency. Roberto Alomar wasn’t yet a star when he got traded (the first time).
Skenes has 4.5 years of team control remaining but you kinda have to assume he’s going to miss 1.5 years with injury, right? That’s the way it goes with guys who throw this hard. That injury risk will be baked into the asking price, and of course the asking price will be set by a bidding war. The Yankees would have to outbid the Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, Orioles, Rangers, Red Sox, etc. Every team will want Skenes. If you can’t envision contending before he hits free agency after the 2029 season, you need a new front office.
Does Jasson Domínguez, Anthony Volpe, and Austin Wells get the Pirates’ attention? You can add more to that (Luis Gil? George Lombard Jr.?), but that’s the best the Yankees have to offer. Those are your three best young players. If the Pirates say no, those three don’t work as headliners, then there is no way the Yankees can get Skenes. From there, the best the Yankees could do is continue adding okay players and prospects, not true difference-makers, and depth players won’t separate you in the bidding.
The Yankees would lose a Domínguez/Volpe/Wells/stuff for Skenes trade in terms of WAR coming in vs. WAR going out, but bona fide No. 1 starters are the hardest thing to acquire in this game, and a guy like Skenes, who is that good and that cheap and under control that long, should hurt to acquire. That has to be a franchise-altering trade package along the lines of what the Padres gave up for Juan Soto. I would say even more than that since Skenes now has two more years of control than Soto did then.
If I’m the Red Sox and the Pirates make Skenes available, I’m telling them to pick two of Roman Anthony, Kristian Campbell, and Marcelo Mayer, and we’ll figure out the rest of the package from there. The Yankees would not be able to compete with that offer. They would have to hope the Red Sox get cold feet. Given the state of the farm system and the young players on the MLB roster (good but not elite), the Yankees would be at a severe disadvantage in a Skenes bidding war even if they put everyone on the table.
Willy and several others ask: This is a stupid question, but I think it’s a somewhat enjoyable exercise. With all the stories that Soto is unhappy on the Mets and wishes he came back to the Yankees, let’s pretend that he forces the Mets to trade him back. What does that look like? It feels a lot like the A-Rod trade, right? My initial thought is Volpe for Soto straight up, and maybe the Mets take on some money? That doesn’t really work positionally for each team. What about Soto for Dominguez?
The most money remaining on a player’s contract at the time of a trade is the $265M the Yankees took on in the Giancarlo Stanton trade, and even then the Yankees sent Starlin Castro’s $22M contract the other way. They also gave up little in terms of prospects. It was a salary dump made possible by Stanton’s no-trade clause and his unwillingness to go elsewhere. Juan Soto has a full no-trade clause and I assume he would only okay a trade to the Yankees in this hypothetical.
How do you even value Soto in a trade? He is not even two months into a 15-year deal worth $765M. The Mets paid him a $75M signing bonus upfront – imagine seeing that direct deposit hit? – so there will “only” be $665M or so remaining on his contract if you get him at the deadline. We know the Yankees valued Soto at $760M. That was their best and final offer. That included a $60M signing bonus. Subtract out that and the half-season’s worth of salary he will have been paid before the deadline, and that’s $675M or so remaining on the deal. That’s how the Yankees valued everything beyond that first half-season.
$675M - $665M = $10M in surplus value. That’s what the Yankees were willing to pay Soto over that period of time minus what would actually be left on his contract. The Trade Values site says Rafael Flores, my No. 13 prospect, would be about enough to cover that $10M. But! But the Mets have no leverage in our hypothetical, right? Soto’s miserable and wants out, he only wants to play for the Yankees, the Mets find the situation untenable, etc. The surplus value is irrelevant. All that matters is leverage.
This would be a very Stanton-like situation in that the Yankees would dictate the trade terms, not the team trading the star player, because keeping the star player just isn’t an option for them. No chance do you pay a fair price under those conditions. How does this sound?
Yankees get: Soto and $45M (paid in 2039 only if Soto does not opt out after 2029)
Mets: Chase Hampton and Marcus Stroman (to offset salary)
I thought about including DJ LeMahieu to offset salary rather than Stroman, but LeMahieu is a 10-and-5 guy with full no-trade protection, and I don’t think he’d accept a trade. The Mets get a good prospect in Hampton who has a chance to be great if he can ever stay healthy, plus they get to turn the page on Soto, and save face. The Yankees get Soto and the conditional $45M payment (modeled after the $30M the Marlins paid in the Stanton trade), which does two things:
1. It knocks Soto’s luxury tax hit down to $40M per year (give or take, I'm only approximating the salary numbers), the same as Aaron Judge. Can’t pay the guy who bolted for the biggest offer and then came crawling back more than the captain, right? Right.
2. It covers $45M of Soto’s $46M salary in 2039, the final year on his contract and his age 40 season. The Yankees would be on the hook for only $1M that year, which means a) he’s a bargain if he’s still playing, or b) releasing him would be very easy to swallow if he's unproductive. Steve Cohen won’t miss $45M in 2039. That’s nothing a little insider trading can’t recoup.
Bringing Soto back would further complicate the outfield picture, but it would also free up Jasson Domínguez for a trade (third baseman?), and bring back a very productive Soto who would obviously be overjoyed to return to the Bronx and play with Judge, feel the good Yankees vibes, and immediately return to being one of the best hitters in the world. Could you imagine Soto coming out and saying he hates the Mets, and forces his way back to the Yankees? That would be high comedy.
Jonas asks: I hear constant chatter about how the Yankees can’t hit left handed pitching this year, but when I look at the stats, they seem to be leading (or in the top few teams) in most offensive statistics. There are a few players who hit worse against lefties (Dominguez), but is this really the Achilles’ heel it’s being made into? And speaking of Dominguez, there is no question that he has been bad against lefties, but is there any minor league track record on how he fared before debuting? It seems his minor league experience in general has been extremely limited and how many MLB quality lefties did he even have a chance of facing in the minors?
The Yankees are indeed crushing left-handed pitchers. These were their ranks against lefties going into Thursday’s game:
AVG: .270 (5th in MLB)
OBP: .362 (1st)
SLG: .503 (1st)
wRC+: 145 (1st; Cubs are second at 131)
For all my complaints about needing a righty bat and teams being comfortable rolling lefty relievers out there against the Yankees, the Yankees have hit lefties hard. So it’s not a big deal, right? To me, this is a case of “don’t focus on what they’ve done, focus on what you expect them to do. moving forward.” That team 145 wRC+ against lefties includes a few outliers I don’t feel comfortable assuming will continue, including:
Paul Goldschmidt is hitting .538/.625/.974 (343 wRC+) vs. LHP.
Cody Bellinger is hitting .394/.436/.667 (203 wRC+) vs. LHP
Ben Rice and Austin Wells are slugging .500 and .479 vs. LHP.
Rice and Wells have slugged against lefties, but they also have .250 OBP and .264 OBPs against lefties, and a (albeit brief) history of struggling with lefties, so I’m not sure how long I would expect the slug to last. Bellinger and Goldschmidt have long done well against lefties. This well though? I can’t say I expect that to last all summer and into October. It feels like what the Yankees have done against lefties so far this year is best case scenario stuff, and a return to Earth is coming.
Also, it’s one thing to bat Anthony Volpe fifth against David Peterson and Patrick Corbin in mid-May. It’s another to do against Garrett Crochet or Tarik Skubal or Framber Valdez in the postseason. Giving Jasson Domínguez at-bats against lefties in an effort to develop him as a righty hitter is fine early in the year. At some point the Yankees will need to flip the switch and do what gives them the best chance to win, and that could mean platooning Jasson with a righty bat later in the year if he doesn’t get better against lefties.
Giancarlo Stanton’s return could/should help the Yankees against lefties. You just can’t count on the guy to stay on the field. That is the reality of the situation, and I don’t want to count on DJ LeMahieu for anything. So, while the Yankees have handled lefties well to date, I’m not comfortable with counting on all this great vs. LHP stuff to continue, nor am I comfortable counting on Volpe being a big part of the offense. Lefties have not been a problem for the Yankees yet. I hope it continues, but it’s not hard to see how things can go south from here.
As for the second part of the question, Domínguez has a career .666 OPS and 29.3 K% against lefties in the minors. Against righties, it’s a .815 OPS and 22.1 K%. That’s in only 393 plate appearances against lefties spread across four minor league seasons, but it’s what he did. Domínguez is still so young. He just hasn’t faced many lefties in his career. That is part of his (lack of) development against southpaws, for sure.
Julian asks: Any chance the Yankees roll the dice and add Chris Taylor to replace Vivas? I know Taylor hasn't been good for awhile now, but at least he's right-handed, plays infield and outfield, and it can't be any worse than Vivas swinging out of his shoes and losing his helmet on every pitch.
I can’t see it and not just because Taylor has been terrible for two years now. He was one of the Dodgers who talked trash about the Yankees after the World Series. “They kind of shit down their leg. They were pressing. It was like one thing after the next. All we gotta do is put the ball in play right now,” he said on Mookie Betts’ podcast. That is certainly true, the Yankees did shit down their leg in Game 5, but that’s just not something the Yankees need to bring into their clubhouse and deal with. If this was 2017-21 Chris Taylor, the guy who put up a 116 wRC+ while playing every position, then okay, try to mend the fences. But the washed up 34-year-old version of Taylor? It’s not worth the tiniest of headaches. Pass.
Dmitry asks: As of today, the Yankees have 9(!!) hitters with 100wr+ or above (min. 125PA). My question is, have they ever finished a season this way? Is it as rare as it sounds?
Dmitry sent in this question during the off-day Monday. At that point 125 plate appearances equaled 2.7 per team game, a tick below the 3.1 per team game needed to qualify for the batting title. Using the 2.7 plate appearances per team game minimum, no team has ever had nine 100 OPS+* hitters, though eight is more common than I expected. It’s been done eight times this century, including last year:
2024 Orioles
2023 Braves, Phillies, and Rangers
2018 Dodgers
2013 Red Sox
2011 Angels
2009 Yankees
Three World Series winners (2009 Yankees, 2013 Red Sox, 2023 Rangers) plus another team that won the pennant (2018 Dodgers), so hey, good sign. Austin Wells has dipped to a 98 OPS+ since the question was sent in, otherwise eight Yankees have a 100 OPS+ and meet our 2.7 plate appearances per team game minimum: Aaron Judge (248 OPS+), Trent Grisham (163), Paul Goldschmidt (149), Ben Rice (146), Cody Bellinger (126), Jasson Domínguez (120), Anthony Volpe (113), and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (101).
Those guys all seem like decent bets to hold a 100 OPS+ all season? Maybe Volpe dips under because that’s what he does, but I dunno, I feel pretty good about that group being at least league average. Will Goldschmidt have a 149 OPS+ all year? No, probably not, but I think a 100 OPS+ is a reasonable floor there. The offense is way deeper than I expected coming into the season thanks largely to Goldschmidt, Grisham, and Rice. They’ve been so good.
* I know Dmitry asked for wRC+, but that is not as easily searchable. OPS+ is the same exact concept. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference use slightly adjustments for ballpark and whatnot, so the + stats don’t always match up perfectly. OPS+ is plenty good enough for this exercise.
Steve asks: Kind of a silly question. With how ridiculous Judge has been the past few years there have been talks about him being an all time great. He’s definitely the best non steroid player I’ve ever witnessed in person. We also know how difficult the league can be and how quickly someone can get chewed up spit out and never be seen again. Which got me thinking, who is the “best” average player of all time. Not sure if it’s easy to look up but whenever you give us stats you talk about the mlb average. So based on career stats, who is the best average player of all time. Feel free to pick a pitcher or position player. How about who made the most money?
I’m going to stick with hitters since Aaron Judge prompted this question. 100 OPS+ is an average hitter. The player with the most seasons in the 95-105 OPS+ range is outfielder Cliff Heathcote, who played for four teams during a 15-year career from 1918-32 and had 10 seasons in the 95-105 OPS+ range. No one else has more than eight such seasons, and the guys who had eight were better than average players (Tony Fernandez, Willie McGee, Pee Wee Reese). Here are the most plate appearances among players with exactly a 100 OPS+ for their career:
1. Bill Buckner: 10,037
2. Willie McGee: 8,188
3. Curt Flood: 6,958
4. Alex Rios: 6,929
… and …
5. DJ LeMahieu: 6,701
6. Brett Gardner: 6,614
Baseball is a flat circle. Anyway, McGee won an MVP. I feel like that disqualifies him from being the most average player ever. Flood went to a bunch of All-Star Games and had some really great seasons, plus he challenged the reserve clause and paved the way for free agency, not that it should matter in how we evaluate his on-field performance. Gardner and LeMahieu were too good defensively in their primes to be average players.
Rios had high peaks (three 130 OPS+ seasons and four +4 WAR seasons) and low valleys (five 85 OPS+ and under seasons and four sub-1 WAR seasons). His career averaged out to league average but he was not a consistently average player. Rios was great, then he wasn’t. Buckner has a very strong case to be the most average player ever. Consider:
Career 100 OPS+ in over 10,000 plate appearances. As average as it gets.
17 seasons with 100 games played and seven times he had an OPS+ in the 95-106 range.
From ages 22-33, he averaged 1.8 WAR per 162 games. An average player is 2-ish WAR.
Only four pieces of black ink: 1980 batting title, 1981 and 1983 doubles champ, led the league in plate appearances in 1982.
Only one All-Star Game selection in a 22-year career.
Buckner made maybe the most famous error in baseball history (has to be, right?), though that’s really just a one-off, and shouldn’t define his entire career. Seems to me Buckner has a good argument for being the most average player of all-time. He played forever even though he was never truly great and it wasn’t until the end that he was a disaster. Buckner was textbook “fine” and played for a very long time. I think it’s him. The most average player ever.
Seth asks: With the Yankees heading to the West Coast this weekend, I'm curious, do time zones really have any affect on players? What's the most difficult situation or part of the MLB travel schedule for teams?
Seth sent this question in before the last West Coast trip, when the Yankees went to Sacramento and Seattle, but I forgot to answer it. It works just as well now though. Anyway, players are human beings, so yeah, some guys have trouble with jet lag. Others have no problem, some get used to it and grow out of it over the years, some never get over the hump, etc. East Coast to West Coast isn’t too bad because you gain time. Losing three hours when you go West Coast to East Coast is enough of an issue that the CBA mandates an off-day whenever you travel from Pacific time to Eastern time. Baseball Savant tracks miles traveled and every year West Coast teams (particularly the Mariners) travel the most and Midwest teams travel the least. The two Central divisions never have to worry about those coast-to-coast flights. Must be nice.
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
DocBob
Two questions: (1) Soto is unhappy with the Mets? and (2) if Jasson doesn't improve against LHP, couldn't he just hit them left-handed?
Big Davey88
I'm waiting for the back of the baseball card to catch up in a big way, but seeing Soto not be worth that huge deal... feels good.
