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July 18th, 2025: All-Star Game, Diamondbacks, Mailbag
🕑 Added 2025-07-18 10:00:13 +0000 UTCUPDATE: The Yankees say Ian Hamilton is starting tonight. Will Warren and Marcus Stroman will start Saturday and Sunday, respectively. I'm not sure if Hamilton is just an opener for Cam Schlittler, or if this is a full blown bullpen game. Today would be the day to do it with the bullpen rested out of the All-Star break. It would also allow them to push Max Fried's next start as far back as July 29th, if needed. They don't expect him to miss that much time though. If they did, he'd be on the injured list already.
ORIGINAL POST: The All-Star break is over, the second half begins Friday night, and the trade deadline is less than two weeks away. This season is moving so fast. The Yankees optioned Clayton Beeter to Triple-A to open a roster spot for Rico Garcia, who they claimed off waivers earlier this week. Here now is what the Yankees having coming up between now and Tuesday’s post:
Friday at Braves: TBA vs. RHP Spencer Strider (7pm ET on YES, MLBN)
Saturday at Braves: TBA vs. TBA (7pm ET on YES)
Sunday at Braves: TBA vs. TBA (1:30pm ET on YES)
Monday at Blue Jays: TBA vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (7pm ET on YES)
(The starting pitchers haven’t been announced as I write this Thursday afternoon. Max Fried’s blister is an unknown. My guess is we see Marcus Stroman and Cam Schlittler at some point in Atlanta, on whatever days in whatever order.)
Back to Toronto already? The Yankees were just there. This feels like the old schedule, when you played division rivals 19 times each and saw them what felt like every other weekend. The Braves come first though. They have a few relievers who could interest the Yankees at the deadline (Aaron Bummer, Pierce Johnson, Dylan Lee), and we’ll get a look at them this weekend.
Atlanta’s having a terrible season (42-53 despite a +2 run differential) because the offense has been well short of expectations and they've lost several starting pitchers to long-term injuries. A vulnerable team, the Braves are, but they can still wreck your weekend. Here are my midseason grades and draft recap, and here is today’s post. I planned to answer more mailbag questions than I did, but it’s been a busy week, and I just needed a break.
1. All-Star week recap. The All-Star Game felt oddly familiar. An Aaron Boone team fell behind early, rallied to tie the game in the late innings, then lost anyway. That hit a little too close to home. It was a fun week overall, the All-Star Game especially. Here’s a recap of the action and what the Yankees did.
Home Run Derby
Cal Raleigh became the first catcher and the first switch-hitter to win the Home Run Derby on Monday. He beat out Junior Caminero in the finals. Raleigh advanced out of the first round on a tiebreaker over Brent Rooker. They each hit 17 homers, and the tiebreaker is the longest home run. The tally: 471.61 feet vs. 471.53 feet. A difference of 0.96 inches, which is absurd because Statcast and the Hawk-Eye technology that powers it is not accurate to hundredths of a foot. Not even close. Whatever man.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. was the first Yankee to participate in the Home Run Derby since Aaron Judge and Gary Sánchez in 2017 and, uh, it did not go well. He hit three homers, including a 453-footer (video), which was not only the fewest Monday night, it was the fewest in a round since the clock was added in 2016. Jazz was all smiles and had a good time though. The ESPN mic caught him joking with Boone as he walked back to the dugout after his round, saying “guess I didn’t mess up my swing!”
"I had a lot of fun. I enjoyed every second of it. You can't ask for a better feeling. I'm still an All-Star. I still hit in the Home Run Derby. Who could ask for a better experience than that?" Chisholm said afterward (video), adding it was special to have his stepfather pitch to him. "… I smiled to myself and I was like, 'Dang, we're actually doing this right now. We're actually hitting in the Home Run Derby and he's actually throwing to me.’"
Because Boone is the AL manager and the Yankees are the reigning pennant-winner, the entire coaching staff was at the All-Star Game, and bullpen catcher Peter Serruto was among those who got behind the plate for the Home Run Derby. Serruto was out there framing pitches. No pitches off!
The highlight of the Home Run Derby was not any one dinger or player, it was one of the kids on the field robbing Caminero of a home run in the finals. Here’s the video. “I paid him off,” Raleigh joked afterward. MLB counted the homer, which had no impact on the outcome anyway. I gotta say though, this is the big leagues. If you get robbed of a homer by a child, it shouldn’t count! Anyway, Jazz stunk in the Home Run Derby, but, most importantly, he didn’t get hurt. That’s a win in my book.
“For me, I enjoyed every second. Even after I was done, my arms were hanging. I was like, ‘Oh, this is amazing,’” Chisholm told Justin Morris. “I told (MLB), if I got more than 20 homers by the half next year, I’d do it again.”
All-Star Game
MLB has the best All-Star Game of the four major North American sports leagues, it’s not even close, and this year’s All-Star Game was the most exciting in a long time. The AL erased a 6-0 deficit late and the NL eventually won in the first ever swing-off tiebreaker. The swing-off rule has been in place since 2022. This was the first time it was needed. Kyle Schwarber went 3-for-3 in the swing-off to win All-Star Game MVP.
“It was awesome,” Schwarber said. “The guys were really into it. They were yelling, screaming, cheering me on every swing. When that last one goes over, they were all pumped. It was a lot of fun.”
Boone, the AL manager, got ripped to shreds for his swing-off choices: Brent Rooker, Randy Arozarena, and Jonathan Aranda in that order. I wound up writing about this at CBS not to defend Boone, just to lay out the rules and who was available to hit. The swing-off selection process is not based on vibes. It’s laid out in the CBA. It’s done the previous day and players have to agree to it, and both teams picked guys who were still in the All-Star Game rather than the big name starters.
Why didn’t Aaron Judge hit in the swing-off? Because he literally was not there. It is customary for All-Star starters, especially veterans like Judge, to leave the stadium early. Judge did his postgame media scrum in street clothes long before the swing-off. Dave Roberts confirmed Shohei Ohtani was gone. Cal Raleigh was still in the dugout, though he’d been out of the game for 90 minutes or so, and they weren’t going to risk injury by having him get hot again and go swing hard for homers.
Even while acknowledging Judge and Raleigh and those guys were unavailable, maybe Boone could have done a better job with his swing-off picks (Bobby Witt Jr. told Anne Rogers he wanted to do it, but wasn’t asked), but eh, I am beyond the point of caring. The All-Star Game is a meaningless exhibition. There are no stakes other than bragging rights. I was greatly entertained and that’s all I care about.
As for the Yankees, they sent four players to the All-Star Game. Max Fried did not pitch because he’s got the blister. Here’s what the other three did:
Aaron Judge: Started in right field and batted third. Grounded out vs. Paul Skenes in the first and grounded out again vs. David Peterson in the fourth. (video)
Carlos Rodón: Threw a scoreless second inning on 18 pitches. Ground out (Kyle Tucker), strikeout (Francisco Lindor), double (Pete Crow-Armstrong), ground out (Shohei Ohtani). (video)
Jazz Chisholm Jr.: Entered in the fifth and played second base. Flew out vs. Andrew Abbott in the sixth, reached on a Matt Olson error vs. Randy Rodríguez in the seventh, robbed of a double by Olson vs. Edwin Díaz in the ninth. (video)
"It was fun. Just trying to enjoy the show,” Rodón said about his All-Star experience (video). “Go out there, attack the zone, and let them hit it. Worked out well."
Joe Torre, an honorary All-Star coach, came out of the dugout to make a pitching change in the ninth inning (video). A chill must’ve gone down Scott Proctor’s spine, wherever he is. Raleigh and Tarik Skubal were mic’d up in the first inning, though it wasn’t nearly as entertaining as Nestor Cortes and Jose Trevino in 2022 (video). Maybe it was because they’re not teammates? Maybe they’re shy? I dunno, but it wasn't terribly interesting.
The All-Star Game was very entertaining, especially late, and it was a good week for the Yankees. George Lombard Jr. showed out in the Futures Game, Jazz made it through the Home Run Derby healthy, Rodón had a nice All-Star Game outing, and Judge made it out in one piece. Boone got ripped for his swing-off choices, but I can only care so much. Good All-Star break. On to the second half.
2. Scouting the Trade Market: Arizona Diamondbacks. The draft is over and front offices will now shift into trade deadline mode. Not a moment too soon either. The deadline is 6pm ET on Thursday, July 31st. That is two weeks from yesterday. Among other things, the Yankees need a starting pitcher, an infielder (preferably a third baseman), and bullpen help. Lots and lots of bullpen help.
"I'd certainly love to import a starter, some relievers, and an infielder as well, if possible,” Brian Cashman said last week (video). “But that's a long list. I'm not sure if this will be a deep deadline or not, so I don't know how active we can be. But we will try to be active, I can tell you that, and we will try to import improvements. That's the gig."
The third Wild Card spot has complicated the deadline because it keeps more teams in the race, and cuts back on the number of sellers. The Diamondbacks are right on the buy/sell bubble. They’re 47-50 and 5.5 games behind the third Wild Card spot with four teams ahead of them. Arizona has an important series this weekend with the Cardinals, one of the four teams they’re chasing. They’ll also see the Astros and Tigers before the break. Not the easiest schedule when you’re trying to make up ground.
“We’re running out of time. We need to turn it around pretty quickly and move in the right direction. We can’t keep moving down the standings. At some point, the turnaround has to happen,” GM Mike Hazen told Nick Piecoro earlier this week. “… As you can imagine, I’m fielding a lot of calls from the buyers because they see us a certain way, which I understand, and that’s probably going to continue unless we go on a run. I’m waiting for that to happen.”
Rival executives told Bob Nightengale they expect the D’Backs to trade their rentals, of which they have many, and both Nightengale and Piecoro say they will seek young pitching in return. That makes sense. Corbin Burnes had Tommy John surgery last month and the only healthy starters Arizona has under contract/team control next year are Ryne Nelson, Brandon Pfaadt, and Eduardo Rodriguez. Not great.
The D’Backs have a strong enough talent base to contend next year, so they will retool rather than tear it down and rebuild. By all means, call and ask about Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte, but expect to be told they aren’t available. As for the rentals, some fit the Yankees and some don’t. Let’s dig into ‘em.
LHRP Jalen Beeks
2025 stats: 4.39 ERA (3.69 FIP) with 22.9 K%, 8.8 BB%, 51.8 GB% in 41 IP
Contract status: $1.25M in 2025
At -3.46 WPA, the D’Backs have the worst non-Nationals bullpen in baseball, and their only three relievers worth a damn are on the injured list. One of them is Beeks, who is sidelined with back inflammation. He is eligible to be activated next Wednesday, July 23rd. No word on his timetable yet. Obviously that will factor into the decision to trade for him. If it’s minor, okay, great. If not, then forget it.
Beeks, 32, has been a lefty specialist more than a full-inning guy the last two years. He’s holding lefties to a .214/.273/.329 (.266 wRC+) line with really strong peripherals: 31.2 K%, 6.5 BB%, and 54.3 GB%. I keep saying the Yankees need a lefty strikeout guy to complement Tim Hill and Beeks can be that second lefty. He’s pitched in all situations throughout his career, including as an opener, which could be helpful.
The path through the AL in October goes through Yordan Alvarez, Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene, Jonathan Aranda and the Lowes (Brandon and Josh), all those Red Sox lefties, etc. A second lefty feels like a necessity, not a luxury, and Hill allows so many balls in play that the other guy has to be able to miss bats. Beeks is up the Yankees’ alley too as a fastball/changeup guy. They love changeups.
What would it take to get him? Rental middle relievers are traded every deadline. Beeks himself was traded for control-challenged lefty reliever prospect Luis Peralta last year. The equivalent is someone like Clayton Beeter or Eric Reyzelman. Shouldn’t be a painful trade at all.
RHSP Zac Gallen
2025 stats: 5.40 ERA (4.79 FIP) with 22.2 K%, 9.1 BB%, 41.4 GB% in 115 IP
Contract status: $13.5M in 2025
Gallen, 30 next month, dominated the Yankees on April 2nd: 6.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 13 K (video). Against every other team this year he has a 5.73 ERA (5.14 FIP) with meh strikeout (20.6%) and walk (9.5%) rates. We saw the upside and every other team saw the downside. Gallen just hasn’t been able to get on any kinda roll this year. Every time he strings two good starts together, the next few are duds.
“I think there’s one pitch per inning that hurts him. Maybe a batter that gets away from him via the walk,” manager Torey Lovullo told Piecoro about Gallen’s season recently. “He’s going to figure this out. Zac’s too good of a pitcher, he’s too smart of a pitcher, and too hard-working of a player to just let this go. He’s going to figure this out.”
There are red flags abound with Gallen. Whiffs are way down (9.8% swinging strikes), hard contact is way up (11.8% barrel rate), and his curveball is getting blasted (.479 SLG). The curveball is his go-to putaway pitch and Gallen’s hung it more than usual:
Gallen started using his sinker, a pitch he threw only a handful of times per year prior to 2025, more often a few starts ago and it hasn’t helped much. He’s never been a stuff guy. Gallen’s success came from a deep arsenal (low-90s four-seamer, cutter, curve, slider, changeup) and excellent command. The pitch models say his stuff is down. Down and trending down the last few years:
Gallen’s been hit hard this year and it is deserved: 4.86 xERA and 4.77 DRA, which are two performance estimators based on the contact quality allowed. The team that acquires him will have to fix him. It’s easy to think Matt Blake will coach him right up, but it’s not actually easy, especially in-season. Other than Clay Holmes, Blake’s biggest success are guys he got a long runway to work with in the offseason and Spring Training.
The positives here are Gallen’s track record and age. He was an elite pitcher not that long ago and he’s about to turn 30. He's not a guy who is entering his mid-30s and hasn’t been above-average in years. Gallen was very good just last season. He offers the kind of upside that’s hard to get at the deadline. He’s more likely to move the needle in the postseason than, say, Andrew Heaney or Adrian Houser, two other rental starters likely to move at the deadline.
What would it take to get him? Jack Flaherty was having a far better year with the Tigers last year than Gallen is now, and he brought back a back half of the top 100 prospect (Thayron Liranzo) and a team top 15-ish prospect (Trey Sweeney). Even with the bad season, I suspect the D’Backs would make Gallen the qualifying offer. If he takes it, they’ll live with it for a year because they’re so thin in the rotation. If he turns it down and signs elsewhere, they’ll get a draft pick after the first round. So that’s the baseline here. A prospect equivalent to the No. 31 or so pick. Anything less than that, and why would Arizona do it?
OF Randal Grichuk
2025 stats: .242/.282/.466 (101 wRC+) with 7 HR, 21.8 K%, 5.7 BB% in 174 PA
Contract status: $2M in 2025 with $5M mutual option ($3M buyout) for 2026
The Yankees should trade for Grichuk just to eliminate that possibility that he could hit a big home run against them in the postseason. This guy has killed the Yankees over the years. Now 33, Grichuk’s game has begun to slip, and he’s merely good against lefties rather than a lefty crusher: .228/.284/.475 (105 wRC+) with 25.7 K% and 7.3 BB%. The swing decisions (i.e. SEAGER) have gone in the tank this year, but the exit velocity remains very strong, so maybe Grichuk’s salvageable? I dunno.
Jasson Domínguez had a good 25 or so plate appearance stretch against lefties a few weeks ago, but I wouldn’t say his righty swings look super comfortable, and his “good” stretch against lefties is a .277/.327/.383 (99 wRC+) line since May 1st. Obviously his development is a priority, but at some point the switch has to flip to what’s best for the Yankees, and what gives them the best chance to win. Getting a righty to platoon with El Marciano down the stretch gives the Yankees the best chance to win, I think.
Fitting that righty bat on the roster, whether it’s Grichuk or someone else, would mean trading or sending down one of the three lefty hitting catchers (likely J.C. Escarra), or trading one of the three outfielders not named Aaron Judge (likely Trent Grisham). Trading Grisham and replacing him with a righty bat is sensible! That’s a conversation for another time. This section is about Grichuk, who’s not having a great year, but has a long history of doing exactly what the Yankees would need him to do (hit lefties).
What would it take to get him? The established market here is one fringe top 30 team prospect. That’s what rental role players like Mark Canha (twice), Paul DeJong (twice), Tommy Pham, and Carlos Santana were traded for at the last two deadlines. If the Yankees decide Grichuk is their guy, it shouldn’t take much to get him.
RHSP Merrill Kelly
2025 stats: 3.34 ERA (3.47 FIP) with 24.4 K%, 7.1 BB%, 43.5 GB% in 116 IP
Contract status: $7M in 2025
Kelly, 36, started the “go to Korea, reinvent yourself, come to MLB” fad and he’s the only one of those guys (Erick Fedde, Chris Flexen, etc.) who’s had sustained MLB success after returning. If anything, he’s getting better with age. After a 4.27 ERA (4.30 FIP) from 2019-21, he’s got a 3.42 ERA (3.75 FIP) the last four years. The Statcast sliders are not sexy …
… though Kelly has outperformed his contact quality (xERA, etc.) every year with Arizona. Do it year after year and it’s a skill, not a fluke. Kelly beats the estimators consistently. Similar to Gallen, he’s a command guy with a deep arsenal (low-90s four-seamer, sinker, cutter, slider, curveball, changeup), with the non-fastballs being his primary weapons. The fastballs are setup pitches.
I talked about this briefly last year: Kelly is one of those “rainbow” pitchers like Seth Lugo. A guy with a deep arsenal who goes fills almost all the gaps from end-to-end and top-to-bottom on the pitch movement graphs:
The Lugo/Kelly types do not have any single pitch that grades out as plus, but the deception and the way their pitches work together allows everything to play up. The proof is in the results. We’ve got close to 1,000 innings of Kelly not lighting up radar guns or Statcast, but pitching at a well above average level. Unlike Gallen, there is no need to fix him either. Kelly is very good right now. No fixes required.
I do wonder if the D’Backs will make a push to extend Kelly before the deadline. They’ve extended him before and it seems like one of those relationships that just works. The two sides know each other well, they’ve had success together, etc. Given his age, Kelly won’t get a big money long-term deal. I wonder if they’ll try to give him, say, two years with an option, and if he says no, then they’ll trade him. I dunno. I’m just speculating.
What would it take to get him? Again, last year’s Jack Flaherty trade works well as a reference point. That was a back of the top 100 prospect and a second player from the middle of your team’s top 30 prospects list. Kelly is on the older side, though that won’t matter much in trade talks. You’re renting him for two months and change, not taking on multiple years. Just about every single contender needs pitching. If the D’Backs make Kelly available, there will be A LOT of interest.
C James McCann
2025 stats: .375/.516/.708 (238 wRC+) with 2 HR, 19.4 K%, 19.4 BB% in 31 PA
Contract status: $1M in 2025
I’m only mentioning McCann here because it’s possible the Yankees will trade J.C. Escarra, and will want a more veteran backup than Ben Rice or Jesus Rodriguez behind Austin Wells. McCann spent most of the season in Triple-A with the Braves before using an upward mobility clause in his minor league deal to join the D’Backs last month. He’s a been there, done that veteran who hits right-handed, which would fit the roster nicely. For what it’s worth, teams usually don’t like bringing in a new catcher in the middle of the season unless it’s absolutely necessary. It’s a lot to learn on the fly.
What would it take to get him? If you’re trading more than a player to be named later or cash for James McCann in the year 2025, you’re paying too much.
RHRP Shelby Miller
2025 stats: 1.98 ERA (3.11 FIP) with 28.0 K%, 7.0 BB%, 36.4 GB% in 36.1 IP
Contract status: $1M in 2025
Earlier I mentioned Arizona’s only three relievers worth a damn are on the injured list. One is Beeks (back inflammation). Another is AJ Puk, who had the internal brace procedure last month and is done for 2025. The other is Miller. He’s been out since July 5th with a forearm strain and went for a second opinion before the All-Star break. We should get an update on him this weekend.
Now 34, Miller’s carved a nice second phase of his career as a reliever, and the Yankees helped him with that. They had him in Scranton for a few weeks in 2022 and during that time they tweaked his sweeper, a pitch that helped him get back to the big leagues later that year with the Giants. Miller has since added a splitter that has become his go-to weapon (41.0% whiff rate this year). His four-seamer sits mid-90s.
The forearm strain is a complicating factor, though not necessarily a dealbreaker. I mean, if Miller needs surgery or an extended shutdown period, then forget it. But if he only needs a few more weeks of rest, maybe the D’Backs would trade him for salary relief? Then you could stash him on the injured list, and if he can contribute later this season, great. If not, nothing lost other than a few bucks. Hmmm.
What would it take to get him? Rental relievers with an arm injury aren’t a hot commodity. There is no recent trade reference point here. Healthy non-elite rental relievers are traded all the time, usually for one or two Grade B or C prospects. More important than the cost is Miller’s health. If he’s not going to be a factor down the stretch, then here’s no point.
3B Eugenio Suárez
2025 stats: .250/.320/.569 (142 wRC+) with 31 HR, 26.9 K%, 7.4 BB% in 391 PA
Contract status: $15M in 2025
Scary moment in the All-Star Game, eh? Suárez took a 96.3 mph Shane Smith fastball to the right pinky in the ninth and was in obvious pain. He did stay in the game though, and even made a nifty defensive play in the bottom of the inning (video). Suárez was supposed to hit in the swing-off tiebreaker. They replaced him and played it safe. X-rays came back negative and it sounds like he’s okay.
"It's a team that wants to win. They're hungry still,” Suárez said when asked about possibly getting traded to the Yankees at All-Star media day earlier this week (video). “If I got over there, I would do my best and try to help them win the World Series."
Suárez turns 34 today and, as of right now, he is the best third baseman available to the Yankees, not that he is a perfect hit. His third base defense (-3 DRS and -4 OAA) leaves something to be desired, nice play in the All-Star Game notwithstanding, and he does strike out a lot. This year’s 26.9 K% is actually his lowest in years and continues a three-year decline: 31.2% to 30.8% to 27.5% to 26.9% since 2022.
The strikeout decline comes despite a career high 14.4% swinging strike rate, and with a similar decline in walk rate: 11.6% to 10.1% to 7.7% to 6.4% since 2022. When strikeouts and walks decline together like that, it usually means the hitter is hunting fastballs early in the count and swinging earlier in general. Not a bad thing, automatically, but when a guy in his mid-30s does it, I worry about his bat speed and how (un)comfortable he is hitting behind in the count. The career high swinging strike rate is a red flag.
We’re not talking about a long-term addition though. We’re looking at Suárez as a second half rental. What happens after the season and the remainder of Suárez’s career is a conversation for another time. The Yankees would only need him to stave off further plate discipline decline another three months. Suárez has legit power (those 31 homers are fourth most in baseball) …
… and it is mostly to the pull side, though he did send a ball over the high wall in right field at Angel Stadium last weekend (video). Almost three out of every 10 batted balls is a pulled fly ball for Suárez this year, a top 15 mark in baseball. Chase Field is not a great park for righty power hitters. Still, Statcast says Suárez would lose a few homers in Yankee Stadium. That will be true for almost any righty bat the Yankees acquire.
Suárez’s 25.2% HR/FB rate is an outlier for him. It was 16.9% last year and 14.9% the last two years. If he reverts to that after the deadline, you’re getting a 115-ish wRC+ guy rather than a 142 wRC+ guy, maybe less than that given the lack of walks. Based on simple HR/FB regression, I would bet a shiny nickel on Suárez being worse for his new team after the trade deadline than he has been for the D’Backs leading up to the deadline.
But there is also this: .215/.292/.361 (85 wRC+) and +0.6 WAR. That’s what the Yankees have gotten from third base this season, and that includes Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s 171 wRC+ and +1.4 WAR in 29 games as a third baseman. The bar at third base is so low that even a 14.9% HR/FB version of Suárez would be a big upgrade. He brings upside, and the downside relative to what the Yankees have now isn’t much.
Chances are you’ll have to pay for the 142 wRC+ version of Suárez, maybe more if there’s a bidding war, and that’s just the way it is. The defense is below average, there’s no baserunning value, and it’s likely Suárez will see some home run rate regression down the stretch. The Yankees flat out do not have a third baseman though, and Suárez figures to be the best available. An imperfect fit, but the best option.
What would it take to get him? Two years ago rental Jeimer Candelario, at the time a 122 wRC+ hitter with shaky defense for the Nationals, was traded to the Cubs for two top 15-ish team prospects (DJ Herz and Kevin Made). That could work as a benchmark for a Suárez trade, though a) Suárez is having a better year than Candelario was then, and b) the infield market is barren. Supply and demand will push the price up.
More than a few contenders need third base help. The Blue Jays, Brewers, Cubs, Mariners, Rangers, and Tigers could all pursue Suárez. The Padres need a DH and could get involved. It only takes one team to be desperate and put a package on the table we all consider an overpay. I don’t expect the Yankees to be that team, but something like that could push them out of the bidding.
* * *
Josh Naylor, who’s hitting .294/.361/.456 (126 wRC+), is another rental, though I can't imagine the Yankees will pursue another first base/DH guy. I mean, yes, Naylor is a better hitter than Paul Goldschmidt at this point in his career, and Ben Rice too, but the deadline shopping list is already pretty long, and the Yankees have only so many trade chips. Upgrading first base is not a priority the way the rotation, bullpen, and infield are.
If the D’Backs stick to their guns about young pitching, the Yankees may be at a disadvantage. Their only MLB-ready young pitchers are Cam Schlittler and Will Warren, and maybe Brendan Beck. Otherwise their best pitching prospects (Ben Hess, Carlos Lagrange, Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz) are in Double-A or below, and at least a year away from the big leagues. I assume the D’Backs want guys who can help in 2026.
The Yankees don’t want to trade Schlittler or Warren, but if that’s what it takes to get a deal done with the D’Backs, they have at least consider it. It’s the front office’s job to consider things, right? What if putting Warren, a plug-and-play back-end starter with the upside for more and 5.5 years of cheap team control, on the table opens the door to get Suárez and one of Gallen or Kelly? Doesn’t that make the 2025 Yankees better?
An unknown this trade deadline is the money. Will Hal Steinbrenner increase payroll? I’d like to think so, but the man did lower payroll immediately after a World Series trip, so I don’t think we can assume it’s a given. If the Yankees trade for, say, Gallen and Suárez on deadline day, that’s roughly $9.5M coming over. Add in the 110% luxury tax rate and it’s almost $20M all-in. We’ll see if payroll goes up, or if the Yankees have to give up more/better prospects to get the other team to eat money at the deadline (like 2021).
The Yankees need a starter and the D’Backs have two rental starters to trade. They need a third baseman and the D’Backs have the best rental third baseman on the market. They need bullpen help, and Arizona might be able to help there too, depending how healthy Beeks and Miller are. You can see how the D’Backs can help the Yankees. Whether the Yankees have the young pitching that interests the Yankees is another matter.
3. Rapid fire thoughts. Will Sammon (subs. req’d) says the Yankees are among the teams who have looked at David Robertson, who is throwing bullpens. They obviously need bullpen help, and Robertson is forever cool with me, so sign me up. It’s much easier for a reliever to sit around for a few months and jump back in the big leagues than it is a hitter. Pitching is less rhythm based. Robertson was really good last year. Basically the same guy he’s always been. Don’t tease me Yankees. Either do it or stop stringing me along … And finally, the Yankees are among the teams with interest in Pirates righty Mitch Keller. I’m not sure I’ll have time to do a full dive into him before the deadline. Keller, 29, has a 3.48 ERA (3.33 FIP and 3.81 xERA) this year and is a solid innings dude at worst. He’s got a deep arsenal (four-seamer, sinker, cutter, slider, curveball, changeup) and it feels like there’s still another level here. Also, Keller is owed $54.5M from 2026-28, which is more than reasonable for a mid-rotation arm these days. I’m a fan. So are the many other teams with interest in him. Getting four postseason runs of a good (even if not great) starter will cost you in a trade.
Mailbag Questions of the Week
Matt asks: Assuming Cody Bellinger finishes the season relatively well and opts out of his contract, what does his free agent contract look like? Seems like the Yankees love him and are going to bring him back, but what's it going to cost?
It does feel like Bellinger is gonna be a Yankee for multiple years, no? He’s got a $25M player option with a $5M buyout for next season, and the Cubs are paying $2.5M of it either way. Right now, that option is definitely getting declined, and Bellinger will go back into free agency. I really hope he picks it up. No long-term commitment, reasonable salary in 2026, etc. Picking up the option would be ideal for the Yankees.
Bellinger turned 30 last weekend and this is now his third straight year of very good to great performance. He doesn’t have the big exit velocities teams love, but the dude is (cliche alert) a ballplayer who helps his team in a lot of ways. Anthony Santander is as one-dimensional as it gets and he got five years and $92.5M at age 30 last offseason. Teoscar Hernández is bat-first and he just got three years and $69M at age 32.
Based on Santander and Hernández, Bellinger’s got a pretty good case for 3-5 years at $25M a year or so. He also had a good case for a long-term deal two offseasons ago, when he was coming off a 135 wRC+ and +4.8 WAR season, and he had to settle for this one-year deal with player options, partly because he lacks the exit velocity teams value so highly. It’s hard to gauge his free agent value.
Long-term deals for non-elite players make me nervous. I would much rather pay bigger salaries to keep the deal short than add years to keep the annual dollars down, which is the exact opposite of what the Yankees prefer. If you could get Bellinger for, say, three years and $90M after this season, I think you do it. That’s Santander/Hernández annual salary marked up a bit because Bellinger’s more well-rounded, and to keep the deal short.
George asks: Realistically, what is the timetable for Lombard Jr to reach the majors, and where do you think he'll wind up. I'm thinking late 2026 at the earliest? Does he project as a 3rd baseman? Hoping Chisholm signs long term at 2nd. Could he unseat Volpe if he can't snap out of his funk? Lots of infield moving parts , especially if they acquire a 3rd baseman at the deadline who isn't a rental.
I think the second half of next season is a real possibility. The Yankees have moved George Lombard Jr. up the ladder aggressively, and he’s handled the assignment well each time (after an adjustment period). They seem to consider Triple-A a finishing school. Jasson Domínguez, Anthony Volpe, and Austin Wells did not spend much time in Scranton at all. Why would Lombard? Right now, all signs point to him being a shortstop long-term. He’s better equipped to play third than Volpe because of his arm, and with the way Volpe is going, it’s more sensible to move him to second to make room for Lombard at short than it is to move Lombard to third so Volpe can stay at short. If we’re sitting here 12 months from now having the same “is Volpe is answer at short?” discussion, then no, he’s not. Whether the Yankees see it that way is another matter. I think the second half of 2026 is in play for Lombard, and he’ll play either short or third.
Samuel asks: Spencer Jones, Lagrange and Schlittler for J-Ram. Who says no?
The Guardians, and possibly not politely. You could add George Lombard Jr. to that package and they still say no. José Ramírez is great, he’s the face of the franchise, and they owe him only $69M from 2026-29. He’s one of the best players in the sport on arguably the most team-friendly contract in the game. Even if the Guardians put Ramírez on the market, another team beats that offer quickly (hello Mariners). I love the idea, there is no one I would make off-limits for Ramírez, but it’s not happening, and especially not for that package.
Anonymous asks: With Rice and Bellinger available to play first base, do you think Paul Goldschmidt might attract any interest at the trade deadline?
Eh, probably not. There aren’t many contenders who need a first baseman or DH. The Mariners, Padres, Red Sox, and I think that’s it? The Yankees do kinda need Goldschmidt. They’re short a righty bat as it is and he’s no worse than their third best righty hitter. Plus these older veteran rentals usually don’t fetch a whole lot in a trade. I think Goldschmidt is more valuable to the Yankees on the roster than anything he could bring back in a trade. The too many players thing is clunky, but it is a good thing.
Bob asks: with robo-umps coming soon, are the Yankees over valuing pitch framing catchers? that seems like a skill that disappears as soon as computers are calling the strikes
Nah. The challenge system is likely coming next year, but the fully automated zone is years away, if we ever even get it. Don’t worry about something that might happen in a few years. Build your team to the current environment, then adjust. Framing is a very valuable skill right now, so work on it and prioritize it.
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
John G
Swing off was a lot of fun but definitely need bigger stars. Overall a pretty fun game. Terrible start to the second half, ugh
Mike
Embarrassing that they come out of the break starting these 3 guys. They need a lot of help but of course there is never any urgency
