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July 22nd, 2025: Twins, Jones, Flores
🕑 Added 2025-07-22 10:00:09 +0000 UTCSo much for a David Robertson reunion. He signed with the Phillies over the weekend. It will be his third stint in Philadelphia. Robertson will make about $6.2M the rest of the year. It’s more than I thought he would get. With the 110% luxury tax rate, it would've been close to $13M all-in for the Yankees had they matched the offer and Robertson said yes. Can’t say I’m surprised they didn’t go there (or maybe they did and he just preferred the Phillies). I decided to split today’s post up, so here’s what I wrote about the Braves series (I’ll get to the Blue Jays series Friday) and here now is some trade deadline/miscellaneous stuff.
1. Scouting the Trade Market: Minnesota Twins. The trade deadline is suddenly only nine days away. I don’t know what the roster will look like in 10 days, but it will look different. I feel confident in that. That is true for the Yankees and also potentially the Twins, who lost two of three to the Rockies this past weekend and went into Monday night five games behind a Wild Card spot with five teams ahead of them.
“We've got to win baseball games if we're going to (make the postseason), and we're not,” Ryan Jeffers told Manny Randhawa over the weekend. “We were doing that before the break and put up two duds to start the second half. (Nine) days from now, we'll find out what direction we go.”
Watch them play, and it’s obvious the Twins should sell. They fail the eye test every which way. They’re 22-31 since their 13-game winning streak in early May and 35-51 outside the winning streak. The winning streak counts, it’s kept them in the postseason race, but Minnesota hasn’t looked postseason worthy for close to a calendar year now. (They went 28-39 in their final 67 games last season.)
The question is how aggressively will the Twins sell? Do they move their rentals and retool for next year? That wouldn’t be unreasonable in that division. Or do they go all-in and trade guys with control remaining? I guess it depends on the offers. I’m pretty sure the Twins will sell one way or the other, so let’s dig into them as a potential trade partner. (All stats are going into Minnesota’s Monday night West Coast game.)
OF Harrison Bader
2025 stats: .253/.335/.445 (118 wRC+) with 12 HR, 24.8 K%, 8.6 BB% in 278 PA
Contract status: $5M in 2025 and $10M mutual option ($1.5M buyout) for 2026
Anyone up for a Bader reunion? He’s healthy and productive at the same time for the first time in several years. He’s hitting righties well (118 wRC+) for basically the first time ever, and he’s his usually productive self against lefties too (119 wRC+). Bader remains a top of the line defender, and the Twins have him playing left field in deference to Byron Buxton in center. The Yankees wouldn’t have to be weird with the whole “he’s a center fielder, we can’t put him in left” thing like they are with Trent Grisham.
The Yankees have more good outfielders than outfield spots already. Pretty much the only way Bader or a similar righty hitting outfielder works is if the Yankees trade Grisham. In that case, the Yankees could do a heck of a lot worse than Bader as backup center fielder and platoon partner for Jasson Domínguez. Bader underwhelmed as a Yankee (outside the 2022 postseason), though he was a popular teammate and I never got the sense the Yankees soured on him as a player. It just didn’t work out as hoped. So it goes.
What would it take to get him? Bader is better than the Mark Canha/Tommy Pham types who get traded every deadline because he’s such a good defender. Those guys get traded for a fringe top 30 team prospect. Something like last year’s Carson Kelly trade works better. Kelly was a rental having a good year at the plate and he plays good defense at a premium position. The Rangers traded two top 20 team prospects (Liam Hicks and Tyler Owens) to get Kelly.
UTIL Willi Castro
2025 stats: .263/.355/.444 (125 wRC+) with 10 HR, 24.3 K%, 10.2 BB% in 305 PA
Contract status: $6.4M in 2025
You might be able to talk me into Castro, not Eugenio Suárez, being the best third base trade target once you factor in the likely asking price. Castro, 28, has played every position except first base and catcher in his career and he doesn’t have a set position with the Twins. But, even when he’s not filling in for an injured player, he’s in the lineup every day. He plays wherever he's needed depending who rests/DHs. A true super utility type.
Defensively, Castro is best at third base and in the outfield, where he’s average more than stellar, though he can play second and short when needed. He’s a switch-hitter too. Historically, Castro has held his own against righties and been above average against lefties. This is his best offensive season yet, so it’s a 117 wRC+ vs. RHP and 144 vs. LHP. Here’s the breakdown of Castro’s bat:
I get a kick out of switch-hitters who are different hitters from each side of the plate. As a lefty, Castro pulls the ball in the air a ton to right field, which would fit nicely in Yankee Stadium. As a righty, he goes the other way in the air more than he pulls the ball in the air, which again fits nicely in Yankee Stadium. Aaron Hicks (the good version) had the same thing going on. His two swings were tailored for the short porch.
Castro is also a good baserunner. He won’t ever repeat his 33-for-38 (87%) stolen base season from a few years ago, but he’s 8-for-10 this year with an above average 43% extra-base taken rate. Castro’s sprint speed is very good (28.1 ft/s) and both Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs rate him as a bit better than average on the bases overall. He’s not a burner, but he will contribute in that area.
Secondary players having a career year always make nervous at the deadline because it could just be that they’re on a first half heater, and revert to being themselves after the trade (see: Nady, Xavier). In Castro’s case, he’s not having an outlier BABIP season (.330 this year after .320 from 2023-24), and it’s not like his 108 wRC+ from 2023-24 was bad. I would happily take the 108 wRC+ version of Castro.
What would it take to get him? I mentioned the 2023 Jeimer Candelario trade as a reference point for a Suárez trade and I figure that works for Castro too. The Nationals received two top 15-ish team prospects (DJ Herz and Kevin Made) in that deal. Castro now is a comparable hitter to Candelario then (122 wRC+ with Washington), plus he’s more versatile and better defender, so perhaps the price goes up a bit.
LHRP Danny Coulombe
2025 stats: 0.65 ERA (1.75 FIP) with 26.9 K%, 6.5 BB%, 42.3 GB% in 27.2 IP
Contract status: $3M in 2025
The Yankees need a lefty reliever who misses bats to complement Tim Hill and Coulombe, who spent a few weeks in Scranton in 2019, is a lefty who misses bats. He's holding lefties to a .204/.235/.224 (.208 wOBA) line with 25.5 K% while also holding his own against righties (.213 wOBA and 28.1 K%). That’s not a blip. He’s been good against lefties for a few years now.
I keep harping on the need to add velocity to the bullpen and that is not Coulombe. He sits right at 90 mph with his two fastballs (sinker and four-seamer) and relies mostly on his mid-80s curve and low-80s sweeper. Coulombe throws the two breakers almost 60% of the time combined. On top of the strikeouts, he also excels at limiting hard contact. Coulombe’s been awesome and does almost everything you want a reliever to do.
What would it take to get him? Andrew Chafin was traded for a top 15-ish team prospect (Chase Lee) and a fringe top 30 team prospect (Joseph Montalvo) last year, and that sounds about right for Coulombe. Lee was a near-MLB-ready reliever. The Yankees don’t have one of those to give up unless Minnesota wants to buy low on Clayton Beeter or Eric Reyzelman.
RHRP Jhoan Duran
2025 stats: 1.62 ERA (2.12 FIP) with 27.0 K%, 8.6 BB%, 69.3 GB% in 44.1 IP
Contract status: $4.125M in 2025, arb-eligible in 2026 and 2027
Duran, 27, is simply outstanding. Misses a ton of bats, doesn’t walk too many, gets a ton of ground balls, limits hard contact in the air (2.6% barrel rate). He’s also been more effective against lefties than righties throughout his career, not that he’s bad against righties. Duran dominates righties (.257 wOBA this year) and dominates lefties even more (.208 wOBA). One of the game’s top relievers, plain and simple.
The Yankees need to add velocity to their bullpen and Duran’s four-seamer has averaged 100.3 mph this season, and topped out at 102.9 mph. His go-to secondary pitch is what the cool kids call a splinker, or a sinker/splitter hybrid. It has sinker velocity (97.5 mph and topped out at 100.3 mph this year) and takes a splitter-esque nosedive as it gets to the plate. Here’s the grip and action (GIF via Lucas Apostoleris):
Surprisingly, the splinker’s whiff rate has hovered in the 25% to 28% range throughout Duran’s career. I would’ve pegged it for a 40% whiff rate, at least. It is a devilish pitch though, one that is almost impossible to square up. Add in an upper-80s change of pace breaking ball, and it’s a power three-pitch arsenal that is more than fit for high leverage duty. Duran would be the best reliever in almost any bullpen.
Although Duran leads the Twins in saves this year and has the last two years as well, he’s not necessarily locked into the ninth inning. Manager Rocco Baldelli has been willing to use him in the eighth inning and sometimes even as early as the seventh inning if that’s when the other team’s best hitters are coming up. Duran is used to pitching whenever. He’s not one of those closers who has to pitch the ninth.
What would it take to get him? Last year the Rays traded 2.5 years of Jason Adam, a top flight reliever like Duran, for three top 10 team prospects (Homer Bush Jr., JD Gonzalez, Dylan Lesko). The Padres had one of the thinnest farm systems in the game at the time, so a top 10 prospect for them was a top 15-20 prospect for others, but they did give up a significant package for Adam. I would guess 2.5 years of Duran will cost you more than 2.5 years of Adam because he's younger and has a cleaner injury history.
RHRP Griffin Jax
2025 stats: 3.83 ERA (1.86 FIP) with 37.9 K%, 5.6 BB%, 46.5 GB% in 42.1 IP
Contract status: $2.365M in 2025, arb-eligible in 2026 and 2027
Duran and Jax are Baldelli’s late-inning duo. Jax is having something of a 2024 Clay Holmes season where he’s been great more often than not, but his meltdowns are spectacular. The strikeout and walk rates are elite, and his 20.0% swinging strike rate is second only to Josh Hader’s 21.2%. Jax sits around 97 mph with his fastball, and his 3,000 rpm sweeper and low-90s changeup are top of the line bat-missers:
Sweeper: 45.4% whiffs (MLB average for sweepers: 30.7%)
Changeup: 50.9% whiffs (MLB average for changeups: 30.7%)
Jax, 30, throws the sweeper and changeup a combined 70% of the time. He shuts down righties with the sweeper and is very good against lefties with the changeup. He’s not someone you have to find a lane of righties to properly deploy. Jax comes with a much different look than Duran, who really overwhelms hitters with velocity and power, yet they’re both bona fide late-inning relievers.
What would it take to get him? Like Duran, Jax comes with another two years of arbitration after this one, so he’s not a rental. The Adam trade applies here as well. Two or three top 10-ish team prospects, plus maybe more. That’s the established market for three postseasons of an elite reliever.
3B Royce Lewis
2025 stats: .219/.281/.342 (74 wRC+) with 4 HR, 14.4 K%, 8.1 BB% in 160 PA
Contract status: $1.625M in 2025, arb-eligible from 2026-28 (Super Two)
I wonder. I wonder if the Twins are growing frustrated/concerned with Lewis’ injuries and lack of progress. Frustrated/concerned enough to move on. It’s not even a lack of progress. Lewis is going backwards. It was so easy to dream on him following his .309/.372/.548 (153 wRC+) line with 15 homers in 58 games in 2023. Then he slipped to a 107 wRC+ last year and now it’s all the way down to 74 wRC+. Yeesh.
"I'm at a point where the hope is gone,” Lewis told Dan Hayes (subs. req’d) in May. “I just do my job as best as I can. If I keep hitting the ball hard, they say it's going to find a hole, but I haven't seen it yet.”
Lewis, the No. 1 pick in the 2017 draft, has been hitting in the 7-8-9 spots and platooning with Brooks Lee at third base the last few weeks. The under-the-hood numbers are strong! Lewis is making hard contact at a better than average rate, yet he is massively underperforming his Statcast expected stats:
AVG: .219 actual vs. .279 expected
SLG: .342 actual vs. .476 expected
wOBA: .276 actual vs. .348 expected
Those are among the biggest differences in baseball. Statcast’s expected stats aren’t everything, their biggest flaw is that they don’t take into account direction (pulled, etc.), but they are a good quick and dirty measure of contact quality. Lewis is hitting the ball well and is not getting rewarded accordingly. The Twins aren’t stupid. They know that, which is why I don’t think they’ll sell super low on Lewis.
Crazy things do happen though, and if the Twins put Lewis on the table, you have to check in if you’re the Yankees. The infield market is thin, both at this deadline and future free agent classes, and Lewis is a just turned 26-year-old with high-end tools and significant upside. The very lengthy injury history (two ACL tears and lots of lower body muscle pulls) are a bigger concern than the contact he’s making.
What would it take to get him? Your guess is as good as mine. Lewis has pedigree and another three years of control beyond this one. He’s also hurt constantly and not performing. How do you value that player? The Twins will want a package commensurate with a potential star. Interested teams will want to give up something more in line with a lottery ticket. I dunno, man.
RHSP Chris Paddack
2025 stats: 5.14 ERA (4.49 FIP) with 16.6 K%, 6.0 BB%, 36.6 GB% in 105 IP
Contract status: $7.5M in 2025
Somehow still only 29, Paddack has been a “if only he could stay healthy” guy for a while, and it turns out he’s pretty mediocre when he does stay healthy. This year’s performance follows last year’s 4.99 ERA (4.19 FIP and 4.81 xERA) in 88.1 innings, which was his largest workload since 2021. His changeup, once a great offering, doesn’t miss bats anymore and is getting hit hard. It ain’t great.
I am curious to see what Paddack would look like as a short reliever. Maybe his velocity jumps from the low-90s to the mid-90s, and his changeup plays up as a result. As a starter, Paddack is a back-end guy who can help you navigate the final two months of regular season innings. He’s not someone you start in the postseason unless you’ve been decimated by injuries. I don’t think the Yankees are that desperate.
What would it take to get him? Last deadline’s Michael Lorenzen and Martín Pérez trades seem like reasonable enough reference points. Lorenzen was traded for up/down reliever Walter Pennington. Perez was traded for a lottery ticket in rookie ball (Ronaldys Jimenez). Perhaps the Twins can do better for Paddack in this pitching starved market. I can’t say I would be eager to pay more.
RHSP Joe Ryan
2025 stats: 2.63 ERA (3.13 FIP) with 29.2 K%, 5.1 BB%, 36.8 GB% in 116.1 IP
Contract status: $3M in 2025, arb-eligible in 2026 and 2027
I almost didn’t bother including Ryan. Not because he isn’t good (he’s excellent) or a worthwhile target (he is). I just don’t think the Yankees could win a bidding war if the Twins do make him available. Every team in the race needs rotation help except the Mariners and Phillies, and more than a few contenders have a deeper prospect base than the Yankees. The Cubs, Red Sox, and Tigers immediately jump to mind. I’m not convinced the Twins will move Ryan. If they do, and the Yankees land him, I would be thrilled and I will happily eat the biggest plate of crow, and go back for seconds.
What would it take to get him? Three postseason runs of a No. 2 starter/borderline ace is gonna cost you. The Padres gave up a recently graduated top 50 global prospect (Francisco Mejía), a top 30 global prospect (Luis Patiño), a top 10 team prospect (Cole Wilcox), and a top 20 team prospect (Blake Hunt) for three years of Blake Snell once upon a time. The Twins will have to be blown away to move Ryan.
RHSP Pablo López
2025 stats: 2.82 ERA (2.99 FIP) with 24.7 K%, 5.7 BB%, 39.5 GB% in 60.2 IP
Contract status: $21.5M per year from 2025-27
López, 20, has been out since June 29th with a lat strain, and he started his throwing program just before the All-Star break. Best case scenario for him is a September return with all the rust knocked off going into October. Before the injury, López was excellent, pitching at the same level as he has since getting to the Twins three years ago. He’s prime-aged, he misses bats, he doesn’t beat himself with walks, he avoids hard contact in the air, and he’s signed affordably. The kinda player the Twins should keep, honestly.
What would it take to get him? The Snell trade works as a better reference point for López than it does Ryan because López is making real money, like Snell was back then. Ryan’s dirt cheap. As with Ryan, I don’t think the Yankees have the chips to win a bidding war for López, so I’m not going to spend much time on him. Again, if the Yankees do get him, I will be happy and will take the L.
* * *
I didn’t bother looking at Carlos Correa, who’s having a down season (98 wRC+) and there is very little chance the Yankees will acquire, even in this infield market. Trading for Correa’s decline years after not giving him a one-year contract (with player options) year ago ain’t gonna happen. Also, Buxton has a full no-trade clause and insists he will never waive it, so forget him too.
Duran would be an incredible get. It’s been a while since the Yankees paid huge for a reliever, either in a trade or free agency. They did trade for Devin Williams, though one year of control kept the price down. Three postseason runs of Duran (or Jax) would put a dent in the farm system. That said, if you’re going to pay big for a reliever, you do it for this kinda guy. Duran is about as good as it gets.
Castro is a solid option at third base and one of those players who could help every contender given his versatility, so there will be competition for him. Coulombe would fit nicely into the bullpen. A few things would need to happen for Bader to make sense for the roster, and I suspect the Twins will keep Lewis. López and/or Ryan are closer to pipe dreams. Not impossible, just very unlikely. Yeah, the Twins have players who could help the Yankees.
2. Rapid fire thoughts. Spencer Jones had back-to-back four-hit games, including three total home runs, over the weekend (video). He’s up to 10 homers in 16 games with Scranton, and a .317/.415/.691 (205 wRC+) line with 26 homers and 31.7 K% on the season. Those 26 homers are tied for the minor league lead even though Jones missed about a month with an intercostal strain. The 205 wRC+ is tops in the minors by 18 points (min. 250 PA). The Yankees shouldn’t make Jones off-limits at the deadline. If there’s a Jones trade that brings them a controllable big leaguer (a third baseman, preferably), they have to consider it. At the same time, I'm curious to see this all the way through. Jones is already pushing the limit of how productive a minor leaguer can be with contact rates this low (they’re very bad). Perhaps he’s just an outlier and freakish enough to do it in the big leagues too … And finally, Rafael Flores, my No. 13 prospect, got the bump up to Triple-A Scranton over the weekend. He is 3-for-11 through three games with the RailRiders. Flores, 24, slashed .287/.347/496 (147 wRC+) with 15 homers in 87 Double-A games, and is an adequate defender behind the plate. I imagine the Yankees will get asked about him at the trade deadline.
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
DZB
When thinking about the future of Spencer Jones, I always think back to an article in Loden Sports (easy to find by searching) that discussed what a freakish outlier of an athlete he is. They specialise in evaluating athletes, and they said "Just .22% of all athletes that Loden Sports has tested have achieved a 9 or higher in both Power and Speed. Spencer is a special breed of unique: he’s the top-end power and speed combo.". They go on to point out that he is probably even more of an outlier given his young age (he was evaluated prior to the MLB draft, but being compared to physically mature athletes) and his size (his speed + quickness are way ahead of others the 'tall and large' category). So I always feel like his ceiling could be very high, if he can make consistent contact!
DZB
Could be SSS given limited ABs, but given his improved contact rate, it feels like the lower K% would have to be a necessary outcome.
學翰 呂
I looked up Spencer Jones' stats in AAA and found that his whiff rate with two strikes is much lower than in other counts. This might be the reason why his strikeout rate isn't that high. But is this just a small sample size? Or has he made some adjustments to his approach after getting to two strikes?
