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July 25th, 2025: Blue Jays Series, Pirates, Mailbag
🕑 Added 2025-07-25 10:00:15 +0000 UTCLet’s open with a positive: Spencer Jones hit three home runs Thursday (video) and batted twice with a chance to hit a fourth (strikeout and popup). He’s up to 13 homers in 19 games with Scranton and has a minor league leading 29 homers overall. That’s despite missing close to a month with an injury. Part of me wants to see things through with Jones even though I am all for trading prospects. His contact rates are still very bad, but maybe he’s just a freak who makes it work and none of it ever makes sense. Anyway, here is today’s post as CC Sabathia prepares to get inducted into the Hall of Fame this weekend.
1. Weekday thoughts. As a team, the Yankees are hitting .260/.322/.487 (122 wRC+) while averaging 5.94 runs and 1.94 home runs per game in July. And yet they’re 8-10 this month. Thank the pitching staff (5.86 ERA and 5.43 FIP) and whatever it is the Yankees are calling “defense” these days. Here are a few thoughts on that disaster of a series at Rogers Centre.
Embarrassment in Toronto
How do the Yankees expect to win anything – the World Series, the AL East, a game – when they handle the baseball as poorly as they do? The Blue Jays beat the Yankees with basic ass grounders and fly balls. They gave the Yankees ample opportunity to barf all over themselves and the Yankees obliged for three games. That the Yankees won one of them was a minor miracle. They had almost as many errors (seven) as runs scored (10) in the three games.
“Giving them extra outs, whether it’s through making an error or not making a play that we need to make, that’s cost us in these two series up here,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch after Wednesday’s four-error showing, with 2-3 other plays that could've been scored errors. “We’ve got to obviously tighten it up. We’ll continue to work at it. We have good defenders here, but tonight was obviously a rough night.”
This is Year 8 of Boone telling us to ignore our eyes, and that things that are obviously bad are actually good. If your “good defenders” don’t know what base to throw to, or when to eat a ball, or where the cutoff man should be, or how to hold a tag, then they’re not good defenders. To put it another way, this team sucks at the “play baseball” component of playing baseball, and has for far too long.
The Yankees did not get embarrassed in Toronto. They embarrassed themselves, much like they did in the World Series last year. The Dodgers spent all offseason saying they knew they just had to put the ball in play and the Yankees’ defense would take care of the rest, and that is still true now. It has been years. The players change and the sloppiness remains. The Yankees owe Gleyber Torres an apology for singling him out.
There’s little chance the Yankees can fix this in-season. It’s a systemic issue. They need entirely new leadership, not just a new third baseman. Fundamental play isn’t a priority and hasn’t been for some time, and you can’t just flip a switch and turn it back on. I’m not asking them to play spectacular defense. Just take care of the baseball. Field a ground ball without making it an adventure. Don’t give away 90 feet.
Every single game the Yankees lose the battle on the margins, and the pitching staff isn’t good enough or healthy enough to overcome it. The Yankees are 14-21 in their last 35 games and 11-18 against the AL East. That is the fifth worst divisional record in baseball. Nice company you’re keeping here, Yankees:
30. Rockies: 5-20 vs. NL West (.200)
29. White Sox: 7-20 vs. AL Central (.259)
28. Nationals: 8-17 vs. NL East (.320)
27. Athletics: 10-20 vs. AL West (.333)
26. Yankees: 11-18 vs. AL East (.379)
25. Pirates: 12-17 vs. NL Central (.414)
The Yankees left Toronto four games behind the Blue Jays in the loss column, but the Blue Jays won the season series and have the tiebreaker, so it’s really a five-game lead. There’s no sense thinking about the AL East now though. The Yankees haven’t looked the part of a division champ in two months. They’re closer to being out of a Wild Card spot (four up) than they are to being atop the AL East.
This team needs a lot of help (a starter, a third baseman, multiple relievers) before next Thursday’s trade deadline, but trades can only do so much. The Yankees must clean up their act. It is imperative and I don’t know that it can happen in-season. This has been going on for years! Why would it change now? This is what the Yankees do. Fundamentally, they are rotten to the core. No one can do the basics, and that includes a front office unable or unwilling to build a roster with a Major League caliber player at each position.
This week in Toronto was the biggest series of the season. Certainly to date and maybe all year when it’s all said and done, and that is how the Yankees came out. On top of being sloppy and stupid, they’re soft. The Yankees play with the persona of an owner who doesn’t put winning first, a GM coasting on long ago successes, and a manager who has shown zero growth in eight years. It is a poorly prepared team rife with complacency from the people in the executive offices down to the people on the field.
I’m exhausted. Every loss is disheartening and every win is like getting teeth pulled. The Yankees play below their talent level – a talent level they seem to overrate internally – because they are so bad at the little things that are nonetheless big. The Yankees won’t win anything of significance until they stop making the game harder on themselves. If it hasn’t set in for them yet, I don’t know when it will.
Miscellany
It seemed like Max Fried’s blister was still bothering him Wednesday, or at least limiting him. He threw 80% fastballs against the Blue Jays. His season average going into the game was 59%. Fried retired the first nine batters he faced and then only seven of the final 17. The defense had something to do with that, but so did Toronto being able to sit fastball. Blister or no blister, Fried has to be better … That was an impressive grind-it-out start for Cam Schlittler. Two runs in five innings against a good lineup in a hostile environment in his first career road start, and he did it despite not being able to locate his slider at all. Sliders do not belong here:
Schlittler navigated those five innings largely with his fastball. He’s going to be a factor these final two months, either because he’s on the pitching staff in whatever role or because he got traded for a key piece before Thursday’s deadline … Jonathan Loáisiga needs a time out from high leverage work. He hasn’t been good enough to be handed important innings. The Yankees aren’t exactly flush with good relief options, but Loáisiga is clearly a bad option right now, so it can’t be him. He was charged with a run(s) and/or allowed an inherited runner(s) to score in five straight outings before Wednesday’s clean effort … Shoutout to Luke Weaver and Devin Williams. Weaver’s shaken off his post-hamstring injury slump and Williams has been lock down since May. The bullpen stinks overall but those two have done some major heavy lifting lately … Silver lining: JT Brubaker has allowed one run and eight baserunners in 9.2 innings since his meltdown against the Athletics a few weeks ago. He seems to be settling in as a steady low leverage multi-inning guy.
Injury updates
Luis Gil (lat) made his third rehab start with Scranton on Wednesday: 3.1 IP, 4 H, 5 R, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 HR on 67 pitches. Statcast had his fastball sitting 94.4 mph and topping out at 96.2 mph. That’s down about 2 mph from last year’s average, which isn’t overly worrisome in the third rehab start. They were gonna talk things over after that and decide whether he needs more rehab, or is ready to jump into the rotation. We should get word on that later today. I would be surprised if Gil doesn’t make at least one more rehab start … Fernando Cruz (oblique) started playing catch this past weekend. It’ll be a while until he gets back up on a mound. He is making progress though … Ryan Yarbrough (oblique) is still only playing catch. He’s not throwing off a mound yet.
Up next
The Yankees are back home and have a tough seven-game homestand leading into the trade deadline. They also don’t have another off-day until August 7th, so 13 games in the next 13 days. Here’s what’s coming up between now and Tuesday’s post:
Friday vs. Phillies: RHP Will Warren vs. RHP Taijuan Walker (7pm ET on Apple TV+)
Saturday vs. Phillies: RHP Marcus Stroman vs. LHP Ranger Suárez (1pm ET on YES, MLBN)
Sunday vs. Phillies: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Zack Wheeler (1:30pm ET on YES)
Monday vs. Rays: TBA vs. TBA (7pm ET on YES)
(Apple is paying MLB how many millions to get a Will Warren vs. Taijuan Walker game lol.)
It’s the annual “you idiots should have signed Bryce Harper” series. Philadelphia’s bullpen is shaky and the bottom half of the lineup isn’t overly imposing, but they are very good, and the Yankees are 1-8-0 in their last nine series against postseason hopefuls. The Rays have stumbled the last few weeks after having that extended hot streak. They’re always annoying though. It’s in their DNA.
2. Scouting the Trade Market: Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates make me mad. They have Paul Skenes, who is no worse than the third best pitcher in baseball, making close to the league minimum, and they’ve surrounded him with this. The Pirates are dead last in runs scored per game and they’re on pace to lose 10 more games this year than they did in 2023, the year before Skenes arrived. What a failure.
“We’re in a situation we don’t want to be in,” GM Cherington, who is in Year 6 of his rebuild and is pacing to lose more games than the year before they hired him, said during a recent radio interview. “We need to find ways over the next several days to July 31st to put ourselves in a better situation going forward, to increase the chances of the Pirates being a winning team in 2026 and beyond. That’s our only focus.”
The Pirates are not trading Skenes, and even if they did put him on the table, other teams have more to offer than the Yankees. We’d have to hope Pittsburgh really, really likes Jasson Domínguez and Anthony Volpe to get a Skenes trade done. Despite their record, the Pirates have a few other good players, including some who figure to be moved between now and Thursday’s 6pm ET trade deadline.
Here are my looks at the Diamondbacks and Twins as potential trade partners. Now let’s dig into what the perpetually rebuilding Pirates have to offer.
RHRP David Bednar
2025 stats: 2.31 ERA (2.04 FIP) with 33.8 K%, 7.0 BB%, 44.6 GB% in 35 IP
Contract status: $5.9M in 2025 and arb-eligible in 2026
From 2021-23, Bednar was one of the top relievers in the sport, then he stumbled badly in 2024 (5.77 ERA and 4.80 FIP) and again early in 2025, so much so that the Pirates sent him to Triple-A in April*. He came back up a few weeks later and has been terrific since. He’s been 2021-23 Bednar, basically, which means premium bat-missing ability and no platoon split. Bednar is again a top reliever.
Now 30, Bednar operates with an upper-90s four-seamer and two swing-and-miss secondaries (curveball and splitter). Lo, a reliever who can throw a fastball by a hitter:
The downside is 2024, when Bednar just stopped being good. He couldn’t avoid hard contact and got hit around. Every pitcher is one pitch away from melting down though. The upside is what Bednar has been most of his career, which is a shutdown reliever good enough to be the No. 1 or 2 option on a World Series contender. The analytical models love his stuff and coming back from that awful season a year ago shows the ability to handle adversity.
What would it take to get him? Two postseasons of a great reliever, even one who demonstrated his downside in the not-too-distant past, will cost you. The best trade comp might be the 2023 Paul Sewald trade, when the Mariners received 3.5 years of a role player (Josh Rojas) and two top 15 team prospects (Dominic Canzone and Ryan Bliss). If the Pirates want Ben Rice and two prospects for Bednar, it would not be unreasonable. Good bullpeners will be costly this next week.
* There was no service time component to Bednar’s demotion. He didn’t spend nearly enough time in the minors to push back his free agency.
3B Ke’Bryan Hayes
2025 stats: .243/.288/.300 (63 wRC+) with 2 HR, 20.9 K%, 4.8 BB% in 373 PA
Contract status: $7M in 2025, $7M in 2026, $7M in 2027, $8M in 2028, $8M in 2029, and $12M club option ($6M buyout) for 2030
Want to trade for another team’s Anthony Volpe? Okay, that’s mean, but there are similarities. Hayes was a tippy top prospect once upon a time who, as he stumbled his way through his first few years in the big leagues, had the “you know he’s always going to play good defense” thing to fall back on. Volpe doesn’t even have that now, but that’s another topic for another time.
Now 28, Charlie’s son had what looked like a breakout season in 2023, when he slashed .271/.309/.453 (100 wRC+) with 15 home runs. In the two years since, he’s hitting .238/.285/.295 (61 wRC+) with six homers in over 750 plate appearances. Hayes has contact skills and some hard-hit ability. He just puts the ball on the ground (49.8%) and pops it up (8.4%) way too much, and doesn’t pull enough (30.8%).
The collapse at the plate coincides with Hayes developing a chronic lower back issue. In Spring Training, he told Will Graves he is not entirely pain-free and may never fully be again. Specialists had him doing exercises to strengthen certain muscles and alleviate pressure on his back over the winter (Hayes said he had to relearn how to sit in his car). I hope he’s pain-free, but the work hasn’t helped his bat.
The defense though, my goodness is it special. Even with an achy back Hayes is at +15 DRS and +14 OAA this season, and he’s averaged +26 DRS and +20 OAA per 162 games played in his career. Here are first half highlights so you can see his glove in action. (I forgot one of his two homers came against the Yankees. Figures.) The defense is how Hayes has averaged +4.2 WAR per 162 games despite a limp bat.
In April 2022, the Pirates signed Hayes to an eight-year extension worth $70M that was so obviously designed to keep the MLBPA off their backs about their payroll and (lack of) revenue sharing spending. The contract was the richest in franchise history at the time and it immediately raised Hayes’ 2022 salary from the league minimum to $10M. The Pirates weren’t subtle about what they were doing there.
There are still four guaranteed years on that contract but it is so cheap! $7M and $8M annual salaries are nothing. The Yankees are paying Aaron Hicks more to sit at home right now. If things go sour, that’s not a contract that will cripple you. If things go well, it’s a steal. If the bat continues to stink and Hayes slips to, say, +5 DRS at third, it’s still a reasonable sum. Four years is kinda scary, but the money is nothing.
What would it take to get him? I have absolutely no idea. 4.5 years of a no-hit/all-glove infielder? Your guess is as good as mine. The Pirates are gonna look bad trading Hayes because he was supposed to be a centerpiece player for them, so the asking price might be unreasonably high. Or maybe they just want to shed the money and won’t drive a hard bargain. Who knows, man.
LHSP Andrew Heaney
2025 stats: 5.03 ERA (5.34 FIP) with 17.0 K%, 8.0 BB%, 37.1 GB% in 102 IP
Contract status: $5.25M in 2025
Heaney, 34, got off to a great start this season (2.50 ERA and 3.37 FIP in April) and I never bothered to check in on him after that. I guess it’s been tough sledding the last few weeks. It’s his worst season since coming up for good in 2018, and he’s not even pitching well against lefties: .288/.339/.595 (.395 wOBA) with 16.4 K%. He’s also near the bottom of qualified starters with a 93 Stuff+. If you’re desperate for innings and just need someone to take the ball every five days, Heaney can do that. Otherwise there’s nothing to see here. Heaney seems to have reached the end of his usefulness.
What would it take to get him? The Pirates would probably trade Heaney for a player to be named later to unload the salary. If he doesn’t get traded by Thursday, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him on waivers in August, and Pittsburgh try to shed money that way. The Pirates might be best off keeping Heaney so he can soak up innings around their young pitchers down the stretch.
RHSP Mitch Keller
2025 stats: 3.53 ERA (3.42 FIP) with 18.7 K%, 5.8 BB%, 44.5 GB% in 125 IP
Contract status: $15M in 2025, $16.5M in 2026, $18M in 2027, $20M in 2028
The Pirates positively suck at developing hitters, though they are pretty good with pitchers. They helped Skenes pick up the splinker that turned him into this, they developed Jared Jones and top prospect Bubba Chandler from raw high schoolers into top prospects, and they turned Keller into a solid mid-rotation guy. As he is, Keller never misses a start and chews up innings at an average or better rate. That's good.
There is belief that Keller has untapped upside. Although the Pirates are good at developing arms, sometimes it takes a new pair of eyes and new voice to fully unlock things, and he has the wide arsenal and pitch traits that teams love. Here’s what R.J. Anderson wrote about Keller recently:
Keller has long intrigued pitching nerds because of his motor preferences. He's a supinator, a fancy way of saying that he tends to pitch around the ball rather than through it. In turn, he's able to benefit from seam effects (think: unexpected movement) and create more enticing breaking ball shapes with better velocity than his pronator counterparts (those who pitch through the ball).
This isn't just theory, it's reality. Keller's arsenal already includes three breaking balls (a curve, a traditional slider, and a sweeper) as well as two fastballs (four-seamer and sinker) and a changeup. He's even thrown a few pitches that resemble cutters, though it's unclear if that was by design.
Keller, 29, is a low-to-mid 90s fastball guy who throws four pitches at least 15% of the time (four-seamer, sinker, sweeper, traditional slider) and two others at least 7% of the time (curveball, changeup). Lefties can give him trouble at times, particularly with SLG, which is why he’s also toyed around with the cutter. Keller’s one of those Seth Lugo "rainbow" types who fills up the pitch movement plot:
The Yankees have reportedly shown interest in Keller, as has just about every smart team. The Blue Jays, Cubs, Dodgers, Mets, etc. When I see those teams target the same player, I’m inclined to think there’s something to really like there, and another level waiting to be unlocked. And even if not, 3.5 years of a mid-rotation guy is really valuable. Sean Manaea types get $20M a year every winter.
For the Yankees, the risk is that Keller isn’t a strikeout guy, so they’re liable to kick the ball around behind him. Also, other than former Pirates Clay Holmes, Matt Blake’s greatest successes have come when he’s had an offseason/Spring Training to work with a pitcher. The in-season light-switch flip hasn’t happened all that often under Blake. We might have to wait until 2026 for Keller to make the leap, if he ever does.
What would it take to get him? There is no recent precedent for a trade involving four postseasons of a good but not truly great starter who is widely considered to have more to give. Sonny Gray, Chris Sale, and Blake Snell were traded when they had three postseasons of contract/control remaining, then you’ve got the two-postseason guys like Luis Castillo, José Berríos, Dylan Cease, Pablo López, etc.
I suspect that, if the Pirates do trade Keller, the return will shock people. The pitching market stinks. We’re talking about broken Sandy Alcantara/Zac Gallen and 36-year-old Merrill Kelly as the best options, and the Pirates don’t have to trade Keller. There is a lot of demand and very little supply, and Keller checks a lot of boxes as an already good pitcher with perceived upside, long-term control, and a reasonable contract.
If the Yankees take George Lombard Jr. and Spencer Jones off the table, then I think it means no Keller. Cam Schlittler’s whole thing is "maybe he'll one day being as good as Mitch Keller" and I'm not sure he's enough to headline a package. The pickings are pretty slim after that unless the Yankees make Domínguez available. Good pitching is in very short supply and the Pirates have a good pitcher on a good contract. It should hurt to get him.
IF Isiah Kiner-Falefa
2025 stats: .271/.314/.336 (81 wRC+) with 1 HR, 17.0 K%, 4.7 BB% in 318 PA
Contract status: $7.5M in 2025
This is a typical IKF season. The stats are his usual stats, his shortstop defense has been wobbly, and he runs the bases well and aggressively. The Yankees were reported to have interest in him a few weeks ago and I took that to mean they were doing due diligence and covering their bases, not that they are dead-set on acquiring him. We know the story here. Kiner-Falefa puts the ball in play, plays hard, and will do whatever his team asks. The bar at third base is on the floor and he would be an upgrade. That says more about the current third base situation than it does Kiner-Falefa.
What would it take to get him? Kiner-Falefa was traded for a top 20 team prospect (Charles McAdoo) last offseason with 1.5 years remaining on his contract. He should cost less now that he’s a rental. He’s closer to the Mark Canha/Tommy Pham role player tier now, where a fringe top 30 team prospect usually gets it done.
RHRP Dennis Santana
2025 stats: 1.49 ERA (2.29 FIP) with 21.4 K%, 4.4 BB%, 44.1 GB% in 42.1 IP
Contract status: $1.4M in 2025, arb-eligible in 2026
The Yankees did not want to cut Santana when they DFAed him last season. They needed a fresh arm and Santana was at the bottom of the depth chart, so he went. The Yankees liked the cutter he picked up during the 2023-24 offseason and thought he could really help them. The Pirates claimed Santana and he’s been the reliever the Yankees thought he could be: 1.97 ERA (2.37 FIP) since the DFA.
The cutter has helped Santana, 29, stay off the barrel against lefties and further chew up righties. He’s a contact manager more than a bat-misser, and he won’t beat himself with walks. For the Pirates, Santana is a go-to setup man. For a contender, he’s more like the No. 3 or 4 high leverage option, though maybe I’m underrating him. Santana’s numbers do speak for themself. He’s been great for Pittsburgh.
What would it take to get him? Relievers with 1.5 years of control get traded every summer. The Orioles gave up two top 15 team prospects (Seth Johnson and Moisés Chace) for 1.5 years of Gregory Soto last year. Soto had All-Star Games and closer pedigree, plus he’s a lefty with an upper-90s fastball, so that return might be on the high side for Santana. I bet you it’s in the ballpark though.
* * *
The Pirates also have old pal Caleb Ferguson, who’s pitched to a 3.92 ERA (3.19 FIP) with the lowest strikeout (19.4%) and swinging strike (7.8%) rates of his career by several percentage points. The Yankees do need another lefty, though I can’t see them going there. They’ve been there, done that with Ferguson. Santana is the former Yankee/current Pirate the Yankees should inquire about.
I can see the vision with Hayes. It’s a long-term contract but it is cheap, and he will massively improve the infield defense (at least until Aaron Boone era fundamentals set in through osmosis). He’s a tenth place hitter on a good team though, and the chronic back injury sounds worrisome, no? The guy admitted he’s not pain-free. How long until that seeps into his defense? I hope the Yankees do better than Hayes at the hot corner.
(Hidden upside of a Hayes trade: YES will play the highlight of his father catching the final out of the 1996 World Series every single game.)
Bednar is a stud and I don’t think you have to try hard to see the appeal of Keller. Kiner-Falefa is a backup plan to the backup plan type. Miss out on Eugenio Suárez and Willi Castro? Well, then I guess IKF is the best option (unless you take the plunge with Hayes). The Yankees and Pirates are frequent trade partners and they’re overdue. It's been 16 months since their last deal. Pittsburgh has some dudes, for sure.
3. Rapid fire thoughts. Cody Bellinger was asked about his $25M player option recently and gave Gary Phillips the standard “I really focus on the day-to-day and I control what I can control that day” answer. Bellinger is a Scott Boras client who’s spent his entire career with big market teams. He’s been media trained to the nth degree. I wouldn’t read anything into his non-answer. Given the year he’s having, Bellinger is as of right now a lock to turn the option down or leverage it into a new deal with the Yankees. That’s months away though. Let’s worry about the Yankees not embarrassing themselves tonight first.
Mailbag Questions of the Week
Alessandro asks: What do you think the cost of Willi Castro would be on his own? I think the Yankees should be looking to add him in addition to whichever 3B they acquire to start. I think he would be a huge addition to the bench as essentially an everyday utility guy
Yeah, I’m pretty much all-in on Castro too. The Yankees should trade for him and Eugenio Suárez. Castro hits lefties well and is so versatile that it’ll never be difficult to get him in the lineup. He would allow the Yankees to (gasp) take some playing time away from Anthony Volpe, something that isn’t really an option right now. Replacing one of the three lefty hitting catchers with Castro is smart and worthwhile.
In my Scouting The Market: Twins post, I mentioned the 2023 Jeimer Candelario trade as a possible framework for a Castro trade because they’re both rentals making similar money and in that prime age 28-29 range. Here are their numbers leading up to the deadline:
2023 Candelario: .258/.342/.481 (122 wRC+) with 16 HR, 21.0 K%, 8.6 BB% in 419 PA
2025 Castro: .257/.346/.429 (118 wRC+) with 10 HR, 24.8 K%, 9.7 BB% in 319 PA
Candelario out-WAR-ed Castro prior to the deadline (+3.0 WAR vs. +1.4 WAR) in part due to playing time, and also because he had an outlier defensive season that year. Those four months with the 2023 Nationals are the only time he’s rated as a positive defender since before the pandemic season. The Cubs gave up two of their top 15 prospects (DJ Herz and Kevin Made) to get Candelario. Start there for Castro.
I see two potentially complicating factors. One, Castro can play anywhere. He’s not locked into a corner infield spot like Candelario, which opens up the market and creates more competition. Teams that need a third baseman (like the Yankees) can pursue him. Teams that need an outfielder can pursue him too. The price is set by a bidding war, not WAR or precedent. All it takes is one desperate team to blow everyone else away, and Castro's versatility means more teams can get involved.
And two, the Twins aren’t looking to rebuild. They’re looking to retool and make a run next season. I have to think that means they’ll prioritize MLB-ready or near-MLB-ready players. Who is that for the Yankees? Do you give them Cam Schlittler or Will Warren? Rafael Flores or Jesus Rodriguez? Ben Rice? I’m not sure how well they match up with Minnesota if the price is young players who can contribute soon.
For sure though, I am a Castro fan, and there’s room on the roster and a role for him even if the Yankees bring in Suárez or another full-time third baseman. He’s a high-end Oswaldo Cabrera, basically. And gosh, how much do the Yankees miss Cabrera? Waldo's not impactful but he’s miles better than anyone else the Yankees have had at third this year other than Jazz Chisholm Jr. Get Castro, please.
(Candelario is with Triple-A Scranton at the moment. He is 9-for-54 (.167) with 17 strikeouts and one walk in 12 games. I wouldn’t count on him contributing.)
Neil asks: Are there possible trade partners that would make sense trading Grisham for relief pitching? Any contenders need OF help with something to offer?
I understand the logic – the Yankees have more outfielders than outfield spots and many roster needs, so trade the rental outfielder – but man, trading Trent Grisham would be a tough sell for me. He’s what, their fourth best player? Keeping the .356 OBP and 134 wRC+ center fielder who plays good (even if no longer Gold Glove caliber) defense seems like a thing the Yankees should try to do. I wouldn’t be in a rush to trade Grisham. Exhaust all other possible ways to get bullpen or third base help first.
To answer the question though, I see six contenders who badly need an outfielder: Astros, Dodgers, Mets, Padres, Phillies, and Reds. The Padres are set in center with Jackson Merrill. They need a left fielder. The other five teams could put Grisham in center. The Dodgers, Mets, and Phillies need bullpen help too, so they’re not in position to trade a reliever(s) for Grisham. The Astros don’t appear to be either, and I’m not sure the Reds will move controllable arms for a rental outfielder when they’re not solidly in the race.
The Padres, Grisham’s former team, make the most sense if you’re going to prioritize bullpen help. They have a very deep bullpen and their left fielders have been awful (-0.4 WAR). It’s not an ideal positional fit, but I’m sure San Diego could find a way to make it work. Is there a Grisham for Robert Suarez trade to be made? Consider:
Suarez can opt out of the final two years and $16M remaining on his contract after the season, which he seems likely to do. He’s essentially a rental, like Grisham.
The Padres would still have Jason Adam, Jeremiah Estrada, and Adrian Morejon to cover the late innings. No team wants to trade their closer, but the Padres have the bullpen depth to do it.
Ownership has supposedly put the clamps on spending. Swapping Suárez ($10M in 2025) for Grisham ($5M in 2025) would free up cash for the Padres to make other moves.
I repeat: San Diego’s left fielders have put up -0.4 WAR. Outfield help is much needed.
Suarez, 34, took a 3.46 ERA (2.23 FIP) with 26.7 K% and 7.3 BB% into Thursday’s game. The Yankees need to add velocity to their bullpen and his fastball has sat 98.4 mph and topped out at 101.6 mph this year. Again, I would try to find another way to get bullpen help before I trade Grisham, but if you’re going to make that move, a bona fide late-inning guy like Suarez has to come back the other way. Not two 4.00 FIP relievers with two years of control.
(The Padres are open to moving rental Dylan Cease as a way to address other roster needs. Maybe they’re open to doing the same with Suarez?)
Dan asks: I was thinking about how rough the Yankees’ bullpen has been lately—it definitely feels like one of the worst we've seen from this team in years. Do you happen to know how this year’s bullpen ranks compared to others the Yanks have trotted out over the last 10–15 seasons? I’m curious whether it would be considered a bottom dweller (or close to it), just a below-average group, or something more middle-of-the-pack by this team's standards.
I’m going to make this easy on myself and look at the bullpen’s win probability added through the end of July (i.e. before the trade deadline). We’re not quite there yet this year, but we’re close enough. Here’s where the Yankees’ bullpen has ranked in WPA through the end of July in the Aaron Boone era (excluding 2020):
2025: +1.49 (18th)
2024: +2.76 (7th)
2023: +4.45 (7th)
2022: +4.35 (3rd)
2021: +2.47 (12th)
2019: +3.27 (8th)
2018: +7.27 (3rd)
WPA is context dependent, it’s kinda like fancy RBI, but like RBI, ranking near the top of the league in WPA is a good thing even if it doesn’t tell the full story. The Yankees have typically had a top 10 bullpen by WPA during the Boone era, at least through July. This year they’re in the bottom half of the league. It’s the first time they’ve been bottom half in pre-deadline bullpen WPA since 2007.
To put it another way, this year’s bullpen is below average relative to the rest of the league, below average by Yankees standards, and the Yankees’ worst pre-deadline bullpen in almost two decades. It’s not the worst bullpen in the game or particularly close to it, but it is bad, and far worse than we’re used to.
Chris asks: Which are you more worried about, that the Yankees will overpay for journeyman talent, or that they will decide not to "go to town" and will only pick up the minimum talent, like in '23 when basically all they got was Kenyan Middleton. Obviously '23 with Judge's injury was a different situation, but they were "only" 8 games out a couple of days before the deadline. We could easily be that far out if we have two more games in Toronto like the last 5, and a bad weekend vs. Philadelphia.
I am far more worried the Yankees won’t do enough and settle for, like, Isiah Kiner-Falefa at third and Adrian Houser for the pitching staff than I am about them overpaying. “Overpaying” is in the eye of the beholder. Players have different values to different teams. Eugenio Suárez is more valuable to the Cubs than the Yankees because the Cubs are in a tight division race and a division title for them likely means a Wild Card Series bye in their only guaranteed year with Kyle Tucker. The Yankees are shaping up to be a Wild Card team. Those extra 2-3 regular season wins may not be worth as much to them as they would be to the Cubs, so Chicago should be willing to pay a bit more to get their guy. Does that make it an overpayment? I don’t see it that way. To answer the question, I am way more worried the Yankees won’t do enough than am I trading too much. Get help and try to win a title before Aaron Judge ages out as an elite player. That should be the goal every single year moving forward. If you’re going to go down, go down swinging for the fences.
Seamus asks: Are there any players, shortstop preferably, that have similar starts to their careers as Volpe, but ended up “figuring it out?” I’m not ready to give up on Volpe, but he is not getting much better. Does he need better coaching?
Three years into his career Anthony Volpe has a 85 OPS+ in 1,696 plate appearances. I ran a quick search for players with no higher than an 85 OPS+ in at least 1,500 plate appearances in their first three MLB seasons, and wouldn’t you know it? The top results by WAR are almost all shortstops:
1. Ozzie Smith: +10.0 WAR
2. Luis Aparicio: +8.9 WAR
3. Elvis Andrus: +8.9 WAR
4. Marty Marion: +8.5 WAR
5. Lee Tannehill: +8.2 WAR
6. Jerry Remy: +8.1 WAR
7. Anthony Volpe: +8.1 WAR
8. Ozzie Guillen: +7.8 WAR
9. Bob Allen: +7.5 WAR
10. Charlie Gelbert: +7.1 WAR
Tannehill played more third base than shortstop, otherwise those are all shortstops. A common thread among the nine non-Volpes is they all played a long time in the big leagues. At least seven years each and they averaged 13 years in the show. Another common thread: None of them ever hit. Smith leads the group with four 100 OPS+ seasons. Andrus had three. No one else had more than two. Some had zero.
Excluding Hall of Famer Robin Yount, whose first three MLB seasons were his age 18-20 seasons, the greatest offensive success story from this admittedly arbitrary search appears to be former Yankee Roy Smalley. Smalley was an 83 OPS+ hitter his first three years, which were his age 22-24 seasons (like Volpe). At age 25, Smalley broke out (122 OPS+), and went on a six-year run as a 115 OPS+ hitter.
The game has changed. Guys like Guillen and Remy played so much because they were good defenders, and also because they were good small ball types who bunted, hit behind the runner, etc. That stuff is not nearly as much of a priority now. Volpe is held to a different standard, offensively. It’s also not great that his defense is going backwards. History is not on his side, at least at the plate.
Mark asks: If Cashman were to shock Yankee fans and fire Boone by the trade deadline to shake up the clubhouse to improve the team’s fundamentals and light a fire under the team, is there a better available candidate out there than Joe Girardi?
Girardi might be the only candidate. The in-season pool of managerial candidates isn’t exactly brimming with top minds. Either the Yankees would have to elevate someone from within the organization (bench coach Brad Ausmus is the obvious candidate) to replace Aaron Boone, or they would have to go with a veteran manager who got fired/retired a few years ago and is sitting at home, like Girardi or Joe Maddon or David Ross. I don’t think Girardi is the answer. His Phillies teams really underperformed their talent level and they took off instantly after he was fired in June 2022 (instantly as in 14-2 in their next 16 games and then a trip to the World Series in the fall). Girardi was a great manager for the Yankees. I thought it was time to move on though, and his Phillies stint shows he doesn’t have a magic touch. This is all hypothetical anyway. Boone is close to bulletproof whether we like it or not.
Joshua asks: I was curious if you could update how we are doing against the various spots in the order. Seems like the number 9 hitter has been given free passes still at high rate.
I wrote about the Yankees performing poorly against the opposing No. 9 hitter back on May 12th. At the time, opposing No. 9 hitters were hitting .306/.367/.438 (145 OPS+) against the Yankees with a walk rate in the 12% range. Here are the updated numbers:
Much better. That 100 OPS+ is relative to No. 9 hitters league-wide, not all hitters, so the Yankees are holding opposing No. 9 hitters to what No. 9 hitters around the league are doing. The walk rate is down to 7.5% too. They were terrible against No. 9 hitters in April and early May, and have since whittled those numbers back down to respectability. (Those top of the lineup numbers are very good. The Yankees have been great against the 1-2-3 spots.)
Dan asks: I was just wondering, how common is it for a MLB player to be ejected and do you happen to know the leaderboard for who has the most career ejections in MLB?
The all-time ejections leader is Hall of Famer Johnny Evers, who played 1,784 games from 1902-29. How many career ejections do you think he has? Before looking it up, I guessed the all-time leader was over 100 ejections. I wasn’t close. Evers got ejected 52 times. Triple Crown winner Heine Zimmerman is second all-time with 44 ejections. No one else has more than 33.
Going into Thursday, there were 24 ejections (22 position players and two pitchers) in 1,536 games this season, so no, they’re not common. The active ejection leaderboard is pretty funny. Exactly who I would have guessed is on top:
1. Bryce Harper: 21
2. Manny Machado: 9
3. Nolan Arenado: 8
4. Willson Contreras: 7
5. Jesse Winker: 7
Harper is tied for 13th all-time in ejections. He won’t catch Evers or Zimmerman, but sole possession of third place is within reach, no? He’s only 32. Plenty of career to go. Yogi Berra is the Yankees’ leader with 13 career ejections. Paul O’Neill has 11, Ben Chapman has 10, then there are a ton of guys in the 8-9 range. Brett Gardner’s four ejections are two more than any other Yankee since O’Neill retired.
Daniel asks: Non-Yankees question for you… Would you consider it an immaculate inning if a pitcher threw 9 pitches and got 3 strikeouts, but also issued an intentional walk? Technically they met the criteria for an immaculate inning since they threw no balls and got 3 Ks on 9 pitches…
No. To me an Immaculate Inning has to be three up, three down, three strikeouts, nine pitches. Once you add the fourth batter, even if the manager took the decision out of the pitcher’s hands and issued the intentional walk, it no longer fits the criteria of an Immaculate Inning. There was a fourth batter the manager did not trust the pitcher to face. Here’s another question: Is it still an Immaculate Inning if there’s a pitch clock violation and the pitcher throws only eight pitches? I say no. I think the pitcher should be responsible for exactly nine strikes to exactly three batters to get credit for an Immaculate Inning. (Just FYI: Nestor Cortes is the last Yankee with an Immaculate Inning. He got the Orioles on April 16th, 2022.)
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
GD
Jerry Remy was primarily a second baseman.
Big Davey88
Yeah. The bar is so low though it is an improvement. Apparently 12 teams are in on Suarez... sounds like an overpay for a guy who could crash. I hear you though. Just seems like another marginal move this team prefers to make.
John G
McMahon, meh
