RAB Thoughts
patreon
August 15th, 2025: Stanton, Lineup, Warren, Rodón, Schlittler, Mailbag
🕑 Added 2025-08-15 10:00:14 +0000 UTCHere’s a thing I realized this week: MLB still hasn’t released the 2026 schedule. The new schedule usually comes out during the All-Star break. It is now Aug. 15th and we’re still waiting. I’m sure MLB has a preliminary schedule drawn up. The league might be waiting to see if the Rays can return to Tropicana Field before making it official, or maybe they’re trying to line up a novelty game (Field of Dreams Game, etc.). It is definitely not the norm that we’re still waiting on next year’s schedule in mid-August though. Well, anyway, here is today’s post.
1. Weekday thoughts. The theme of 2025 is divisional collapses. In addition to the Yankees going from seven games up to 6.5 games back in 2.5 months, the Cubs went from 6.5 games up to eight games back in two months, the Dodgers went from nine games up to one game back in six weeks, and the Astros went from seven games up to tied in five weeks (they’re 1.5 games up again). Even the Tigers have seen their AL Central lead whittled down from 14 games on July 8th to 6.5 games today. Does that make me feel better about the Yankees? No. No it does not. At least we’re not alone in our misery, I guess.
The Yankees missed an opportunity Wednesday night to pick up ground on literally every team they’re chasing/trying to hold off. They all lost. Here are the Wild Card standings entering play Friday:
1. Mariners: 67-55 (+2.5 GB)
2. Red Sox: 66-56 (+1.5 GB)
3. Yankees: 64-57
------------------------------------
4. Guardians: 63-57 (0.5 GB)
5. Rangers: 61-61 (3.5 GB)
6. Royals: 60-61 (4 GB)
Even while acknowledging they are breathing down the Yankees’ neck, I have a hard time taking the Guardians seriously. They have only three players with a 100 wRC+ in any number of plate appearances (Steven Kwan, Kyle Manzardo, José Ramírez), their all-world closer is on administrative leave because of a gambling scandal, and the roster is just thin. Rotation, bullpen, lineup, etc. There’s not much depth to that team at all.
If Cleveland passes the Yankees, it will be because the Yankees drop the ball and because their whole is less than the sum of the parts, not because the Guardians are clutchity clutch and Know How To Win. The Rangers have lost six of seven and are tailing off. The Royals, I don’t know why I included them. If they chase the Yankees down for the third Wild Card spot, then fire everyone, sell the team, etc. Here now are a few thoughts on the last few days.
The new right fielder
Locked in Giancarlo Stanton is a beautiful thing. He had a four-hit game Tuesday (video), his first in almost two years, and he’s hit eight home runs in his last 19 games. The .299/.373/.576 (161 wRC+) line is peak MVP Stanton. It’s only 161 plate appearances, but still. I wasn’t sure Stanton had a 161 plate appearance stretch like that still in him given his age and the dual tennis elbows.
“He’s controlling the strike zone I feel like as good as I’ve seen him,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch earlier this week. “He’s going up there with a good plan, and when he’s getting the pitch he’s looking for, he’s doing damage with it.”
Stanton has definitely tweaked his stance this year. I thought maybe my eyes were playing tricks on me, but no, he’s hunched over a bit, his torso is more closed, and it looks like his hands might be lower and in front of his chest:
Statcast’s new batting stance data says Stanton has a) widened his stance 1.5 inches, b) closed his stance one degree, and c) moved back 1.7 inches in the box. How much does that even matter? I mean, one degree more closed, 1.5 inches wider … those are such small changes. Maybe they make all the difference in the world. I dunno. I was curious though, so I looked it up. There are the numbers.
When Stanton gets hot, he gets “put the team on his back” hot, and he’s that hot right now. I didn’t think he still had a stretch like this in him but I’m glad he does. More notably, Stanton’s the everyday right fielder now. He started all three games against the Twins in right field. It was the first time Giancarlo started three straight days (days, not games) in the field since May 8-10, 2022.
“It’s refreshing after missing so much time, because I contribute zero when I miss time,” Stanton told Hoch. “Anything I can do when I’m back is always nice.”
Other than one foul ball near the short side wall Wednesday (video), Stanton has caught everything he was supposed to catch these last few days, and he’s made it through okay physically. I thought the Yankees might scratch Stanton following the long rain delay Wednesday, but nope, he was out there on the wet grass. He is the starting right fielder now. Crazy, huh? But what else are the Yankees supposed to do?
Hiding Stanton in Yankee Stadium’s tiny right field is one thing. This weekend in spacious Busch Stadium will be a greater challenge simply because there’s so much more ground to cover. But again, what are the Yankees supposed to do, sit their most dangerous hitter at the moment? They don’t have the cushion in the standings to do that. I expect to see Stanton in the outfield in St. Louis again this weekend.
After this Cardinals series, the Yankees have two games at George M. Steinbrenner Field, which has its own short right field porch, and then seven games at home. Get through this weekend and then there will be a long runway of games in ballparks with little outfield ground for Stanton to cover. And hopefully, by time that stretch is over, Aaron Judge will be able to return to the outfield full-time. For now, Stanton is carrying the Yankees offensively, and he’s doing what they need him to do in the outfield too.
The best lineup the Yankees can field
Monday’s and Tuesday’s lineup – the same lineup on back-to-back days? madness! – was the best starting nine the Yankees could field before Paul Goldschmidt’s injury. We can quibble over the exact batting order, but these nine guys in these positions is the best the Yankees can do until Judge can return to the outfield and Stanton can go back to DH:
1. CF Trent Grisham
2. DH Aaron Judge
3. LF Cody Bellinger
4. RF Giancarlo Stanton
5. C Ben Rice
6. 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr.
7. 1B Paul Goldschmidt
8. 3B Ryan McMahon
9. SS Anthony Volpe
Goldschmidt tweaked his knee on this pop up Tuesday and is likely headed to the injured list, so we’re not going to see that lineup again anytime soon. The larger point is that the best possible lineup does not include Jasson Domínguez, who’s started only one of the last five games and hasn’t done anything other than pinch-run since Sunday, or Austin Wells. That doesn’t mean the best lineup won’t include them forever. Just that it doesn’t include them right now, while the Yankees are fighting for a Wild Card spot.
“I don’t know yet. We’ll see,” Boone said about Rice getting more starts behind the plate prior to Monday’s game (video). “… (Wells has) been struggling a bit obviously offensively, and part of it is I want to keep Ben in there. I think Ben has done a really good job behind the plate too. There’s that. That also allows Goldschmidt to be in the lineup. It’s just trying to get the best grouping out there day in and day out to give us a chance to win a game.”
Wells is in an 8-for-63 (.127) skid and is hitting .172/.218/.303 (41 wRC+) in the last two calendar months. That dates back to the Kansas City series, when he was working nine-pitch at-bats and launching homers, and appeared ready to take that next step. Instead, Wells has stopped hitting. His plate discipline has gone in the tank and he’s been especially helpless against breaking stuff, and teams know it:
“I haven’t hit the breaking ball very well. The slider in particular,” Wells told Gary Phillips earlier this week. “It’s more of a feel thing because I hit sliders every day before games. So it’s not the ability to hit it. It’s just the ability to adjust to it, in my eyes.”
The defense, particularly the framing, is still very good. But a .218 OBP (!) over two months just isn’t going to cut it, even at catcher. Wells has been bad enough at the plate and Rice capable enough behind it that I thought the Yankees were better off with Goldschmidt in the lineup, even against righties, because his glove was more valuable than what Wells was bringing to the table. Too bad Goldschmidt got hurt.
Rice has started six of the last 13 games at catcher, so close to a 50/50 split in August after Wells was the undisputed No. 1 guy through July. In his limited time behind the plate, Rice has framed and blocked well enough, but throwing is a concern. His arm is weak and his throws are awkward. The Rays and Red Sox are coming up. You know they’re champing at the bit to challenge Tío Ben.
“I feel like he’s getting more and more comfortable back there,” Boone told Phillips about Rice behind the plate. “I’m seeing more and more of a presence and confidence, and just the game sort of slowing down for him a little bit back there. I felt like, initially, when we started putting him in there, he was doing well and handling it, but you could see moments in the game where it would speed up. I haven’t seen that, and he’s been in some tight games too.”
As for Domínguez, he hasn’t been nearly as bad as Wells the last few weeks, but he has hit .254/.325/.353 (91 wRC+) in 252 plate appearances since his three-homer game in Sacramento, including .256/.333/.378 (100 wRC+) against righties. When you have negative defensive value, you’re gonna have to do better than a 100 wRC+ against the pitchers who throw with the hand you hit well. A lot better.
Including Stanton, the Yankees have four outfielders better than Domínguez, so he should be on the short end of the playing time stick. Bellinger and Grisham have been so good, Stanton is smashing the ball, and Judge is Judge. Even with Tuesday’s homer, Judge has looked jumpy and off-balance since returning from the injured list, but this is still Aaron Judge we’re talking about. The next nuclear streak could be an at-bat away. You can’t sit him, period.
Before Goldschmidt’s injury, I didn’t think the best lineup included Domínguez or Wells, and neither did the manager, apparently. The two prized young players sat back-to-back games this week. With Goldschmidt hurt, I’m sure Boone will work both Domínguez and Wells back into the lineup, though perhaps not at the same time. Rice at first/Wells at catcher or Bellinger at first/Dominguez in left, that kinda thing. (Domínguez and Stanton in the outfield corners could be rough defensively, particularly in big ol' Busch Stadium.)
“I’m just trying to match it up the best we can and obviously trying to do all we can to win every game,” Boone told Pete Sblendorio about Domínguez prior to Wednesday’s game. “JD’s a big part of it. I know it’s been now a few days he hasn’t played. It’s a little snapshot in a long season. He could be the most central figure in the next game.”
It’s not great that the Yankees no longer spend money on top position player talent because they want to give opportunities to their young hitters, and now two of their supposed building blocks have played their way out of the lineup in the most important games of the season. Give Boone credit for putting Domínguez and Wells on the bench and not continuing to force the issue with the young players, I suppose. It's definitely not ideal though.
Goldschmidt’s injury is a blow, the Yankees are running short on righty bats, but it is an opportunity for Domínguez and Wells. At-bats are open again. The message was loud and clear this week. We’re a better team with you on the bench. Hopefully the message is effective and those two pick things up. And if not, right back on the bench is where they’ll belong once Goldschmidt and others get healthy.
Lo, six-inning starts
Thanks to Will Warren (6.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 7 K, 2 HR on Monday) and Carlos Rodón (7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K, 1 HR on Tuesday), the Yankees this week received back-to-back starts of at least six innings for the first time Max Fried and Warren against the Rays from July 29-30. It was only the second time the Yankees got back-to-back starts of at least six innings since late June. Yeesh.
“He was so good,” Rice, who caught Warren on Monday, told Hoch. “I can’t say enough about him just commanding both fastballs in the zone for strikes, getting ahead of guys early, trusting his stuff in the zone, and just pitching out there with conviction, confidence, and poise.”
Warren has been the Yankees’ best starter the last few weeks which is both a good thing and a bad thing. It’s a good thing because yay, the young pitcher is settling in and stepping up. It’s a bad thing because Fried and, prior to Tuesday, Rodón have been dropping the ball lately. Warren was so good Monday. Look at the locations and results on his sinker:
Peppered that outside corner to righties for called strikes (props to Rice for framing them) and the sinkers that were in the zone became fouls, whiffs, or outs. That’s how it’s done. Warren reported to Spring Training as the No. 7 starter at best. Fast forward a few months and he’s given the Yankees 122.1 innings with a 4.34 ERA (3.68 FIP), and he’s been even better the last few weeks. A bright spot, he has been.
As for Rodón, Tuesday night almost went sideways in the first inning. He didn’t just load the bases with no outs in the first inning. All three hitters reached with two strikes. Austin Martin went from 1-2 to 2-2 to a single. Byron Buxton went from 1-2 to a walk. Ryan Jeffers went from 0-2 to 2-2 to a hit by pitch. Unfun fact: Rodón has allowed a .258 OBP in two-strike counts, above the .246 league average. Groan.
Anyway, Rodón did great work limiting the damage to one run, then something seemed to click, right? He was so much sharper the rest of the game. In the zone and on the corners with his fastball, chases in the dirt on sliders, etc. Rodón’s command has been crappy lately. It’s not just the walks, it’s the meatballs in the zone that get hammered. I really hope something locked in mechanically Tuesday. Rodón looked like a completely different pitcher after the first inning.
“We were set up for disaster there, but we got through it,” Rodón told Hoch. “After the first inning, I attacked the strike zone and made them put the ball in play, and the defense played great.”
Cam Schlittler has been a "two runs in five innings" machine since his debut. We haven’t seen him truly dominate yet, but two runs in five innings is plenty good enough from the rookie occupying the No. 5 spot. Interestingly, Schlittler did not throw a single slider/sweeper against the Twins. He was very fastball heavy (72%!), and the cutter and curveball were his go-to secondaries. The locations:
Schlittler’s had a hard time getting his slider down, so maybe this is the adjustment? Don’t throw it at all and lean on the cutter/curveball? I dunno. Two of those middle-middle curves were early count strike-stealers, the third a bit of a hanger Schlittler got away with. Otherwise he kept the cutter and the curve out of the middle of the zone, which he’s been unable to do with his slider. We’ll see what he does next time out.
I saw some bellyaching about pulling Schlittler after the fifth inning Wednesday and I don't get it. The Twins forced him to throw 54 pitches in the fourth and fifth innings, and the outs weren’t coming easy. I was totally fine with Schlittler heading to the showers with 86 pitches after the fifth. I just don’t understand going to Yerry De Los Santos in the sixth. De Los Santos has been really good this year! He’s been a pleasant surprise. But come on, Yerry can’t be the first guy out of the bullpen when …
… it’s the sixth inning of a 1-1 game.
… the 2-3-4 hitters are coming up.
… your high leverage guys are rested.
… there was an off-day coming Thursday.
Boone went to De Los Santos on his second of back-to-back days over a rested Luke Weaver, who started to warm up immediately after the first runner reached base. So Weaver was available to pitch that inning and Yerry’s leash wasn’t that long. Why not go straight to Weaver then? The Yankees scored one run Wednesday. That’s why they lost. But good grief man, the manager’s decision-making has to be better than this. These games are too important. A little urgency, please.
What’s done is done. Schlittler has been rock solid since his debut and is easily passing the “better than Marcus Stroman” test. Warren and Rodón going six innings was much needed even with all these off-days. With any luck, Rodón got over the command issues that have given him trouble the last few weeks. That would be a big win within Tuesday’s blowout win.
Miscellany
Looks like Volpe is over his recent throwing issues, no? He was bouncing everything for a good 2-3 weeks last month. Lately his throws have been true and to the first baseman’s chest, or thereabouts. Volpe does have to get more decisive and charge more ground balls, he’s still hanging back too much, but at least now he’s making the throws a shortstop needs to make … Set the minimum to 20 innings, and here’s the lefty reliever strikeout rate leaderboard:
1. Aroldis Chapman: 38.0%
2. Josh Hader: 36.9%
3. Alex Vesia: 33.8%
4. Brendon Little: 33.6%
5. Gabe Speier: 33.0%
6. Brent Headrick: 32.6%
Headrick is fly ball (25.0 GB%) and hard contact (91.1 mph exit velocity) prone, so I’m not sure he’ll ever be a trusted leverage guy, but a lefty who can miss this many bats is definitely useful. The Yankees have needed someone like this to complement Tim Hill since last year … Ryan McMahon is hitting .245/.359/.302 (95 wRC+) as a Yankee and I’ll certainly take that OBP. The OBP and his glove have made for a big upgrade at third base. I would like the power to show up soon though. Here are McMahon’s fly balls and line drives since the trade:
If you’re trying to hit for extra bases, you’re hitting to the wrong part of the park, Ryan. Right field beckons … And finally, poor Mickey Gasper. He spent six years in the minors with the Yankees, so they know him as well as anyone, and they ran wild on him Tuesday. They went 3-for-4 stealing bases with Gasper behind the plate and the one caught stealing had to be reviewed. Four of the first six Yankees to reach first base with second base unoccupied attempt a steal. One of the two who didn’t advanced on a ball in the dirt, and the other didn’t have to steal because the next batter went deep on the second pitch. The Yankees didn’t let up on the bases until the score got out of hand. Sorry, Mickey, but the game is the game.
Injury updates
Judge (flexor) has stretched out his throwing program to 120 feet. He has to throw to the bases and things like that before he returns to the outfield, though Boone said that could happen as soon as this weekend … Goldschmidt (knee) has a minor sprain and it sounds like it could be a short-term thing. Middle infielders Braden Shewmake and Jorbit Vivas are the only 40-man roster position players in the minors. With Amed Rosario (collarbone) expected back Tuesday, the first day he’s eligible to be activated, I bet the Yankees call up Vivas to sit on the bench in St. Louis. They re-signed Andrew Velazquez to a new Triple-A deal Thursday after releasing him earlier this month, which may portend an infield call up. Whatever it is, I don’t expect a major roster move to replace Goldschmidt (i.e. Spencer Jones) … Cole (elbow) started his throwing program Monday. At this point he’s making only 20 light throws on flat ground, but he’s started throwing. Step 1 of many … Fernando Cruz (oblique) started a rehab assignment with Triple-A Scranton on Thursday. He went 0.1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 0 K on 21 pitches. The plan is two more rehab appearances on Sunday and Tuesday, and if those go well, he could be activated late next week… Ryan Yarbrough (oblique) also started a rehab assignment with Scranton on Thursday: 3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 BB, 3 K, 1 HR on 37 pitches. Yarbrough’s rehab stint will be longer than Cruz’s. I’m not sure how much longer, but longer. I wonder if this will be a “he’ll conveniently finish his rehab right as rosters expand on Sept. 1st” thing … Oswaldo Cabrera (ankle) is out of his walking boot and has started very light workouts. There’s a small chance he can return this year, but probably not.
Up next
A quick five-game road trip through St. Louis and Tampa. The last time the Yankees visited St. Louis, Josh Donaldson threw a 1-2-3 inning. Here’s what’s coming up this weekend as the Yankees try to win back-to-back series for the first time since late May (the Colorado and Anaheim series):
Friday at Cardinals: RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Andre Pallante (8pm ET on YES)
Saturday at Cardinals: LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Sonny Gray (7pm ET on FOX)
Sunday at Cardinals: RHP Will Warren vs. RHP Miles Mikolas (2pm ET on YES)
Monday: off-day
The Cardinals are in the middle of their third straight mediocre to bad season and have seen their per game attendance dip from 40,994 in 2022 to 40,013 in 2023 to 35,532 in 2024 to 28,767 in 2025. That is the kinda thing that just won’t ever happen with the Yankees. A 30% attendance decline in four years? No chance. They’re too popular and New York is too big and too much of a tourist destination.
Anyway, not counting George M. Steinbrenner Field, Busch Stadium is one of three active parks Judge has not homered in (yet). He’s played three career games there (back in 2022) and went 5-for-13 with a double. Judge also has yet to homer in Nationals Park (eight games) and Wrigley Field (six games). He did go deep in Nationals Park in the 2018 All-Star Game though (video). Hopefully the big man crossed Busch Stadium off the list this weekend, multiple times.
2. Rapid fire thoughts. MLB released the postseason schedule earlier this week. Most notably, MLB dumped the flexible World Series schedule they tried last year (the World Series would have started a few days earlier had both LCSes gone no more than five games) because making travel arrangements was a nightmare, even for teams. Here are the postseason dates potentially relevant to the Yankees:
Wild Card Series: Tuesday, Sept. 30th to Thursday, Oct. 2nd
ALDS: Saturday, Oct. 4th to Friday, Oct. 10th
ALCS: Sunday, Oct. 12th to Monday. Oct. 20th
World Series: Friday, Oct. 24th to Saturday, Nov. 1st
The AL has the usual 2-2-1 LDS format and 2-3-2 LCS format this year. Remember the wonky 1-1-2-1 ALDS format last year that allowed the Yankees to start Cole in Game 1 and then again on normal rest in Game 4? The NLDS has that this year. The weird schedule alternates leagues and it's the NL’s turn. Anyway, there’s the postseason schedule. Hopefully the Yankees will be busy on those dates in a few weeks … Last week I mentioned the Yankees would likely sign a “veteran fourth catcher journeyman type” to stash in Scranton given their deadline activity, and they did that earlier this week. Rob Brantly is back. He had short stints with the Yankees in 2021 (six games) and 2022 (three games), and got into three games with the Marlins this April. Brantly and fringe prospect Omar Martinez are the two catchers in Scranton now that J.C. Escarra is back on the big league bench … And finally, Andrew Marchand (subs. req’d) reports MLB is in talks with NBC and Netflix about broadcast deals, and they’re working on new deals with Apple and ESPN. NBC could get Sunday Night Baseball and Netflix could get the Home Run Derby. We already have to subscribe to Amazon, Apple TV+, ESPN, FOX, MLB Network, TBS, and YES to watch the Yankees (postseason included). Is that everything? I feel like I’m missing one. A cable package covers much of that, but still, it’s just so much. Games keep getting peeled away from our YES/cable subscription and put on some streaming service. MLB will always take $1 today over $2 tomorrow, but making it more of a pain in the ass to consume your product seems dumb.
Mailbag Questions of the Week
I finally got around to my post-trade deadline mailbag inbox cleansing. Sorry about all those “what about this guy as a trade target?” questions that went unanswered. Some of these are a few weeks old, but I’ve wanted to answer them, so I’m going to answer them now. Thanks as always for the questions. I get more than I could possibly answer. Please don’t take it personally or get discouraged if I don’t answer yours.
William asks: Hypothetically if judge were 28 and approaching free agency this year, what would his contract look like?
A 28-year-old Aaron Judge doing this might be the best free agent ever. It would either be him or Alex Rodriguez, who signed with the Rangers going into his age 25 season (!) and was an all-around elite player. Elite bat, elite glove, elite baserunning, the works. I’d say Judge would be behind A-Rod, but being the second best free agent ever would still be pretty good. To answer the question, I think Judge would get a higher average value than Juan Soto but a shorter contract given the hypothetical two-year difference in age. Call it $55M a year for 13 years and that’s $715M. Hmmm. Maybe Judge could get that extra $50M to match Soto’s $765M? I think so. Maybe he gets the 14th year after all. That’s what we’re talking about though. North of $50M a year through at least age 40. Special players get special contracts and a 28-year-old Judge would be a capital-S Special free agent. We know this much for sure: Judge’s nine-year, $360M contract is a bargain. Only 2.5 years into that contract, he’s already provided $185.3M in on-field value, per FanGraphs, and then there’s all the money he generates for the franchise through ticket sales, merchandise, etc.
Stephen asks: If Stanton gets some outfield time while Judge is limited to DH, does it make sense to push him way up the lineup, maybe even to lead off? - to increase the odds of getting him an extra AB before his defensive replacement comes in.
It’s not a bad idea. It could get you one extra inning with a better defender in the outfield, and that one extra inning could be the difference between a win and a loss. The downside is Giancarlo Stanton is on base in front of Aaron Judge and your other top hitters, and going station-to-station and slowing down the offense. I like Stanton better as the guy who drives in Judge rather than the other way around, but batting him leadoff as a way to potentially get the defensive replacement into the game sooner isn’t crazy.
George asks: I'm surprised at how lost at times Dominguez looks in left field. I know it's early in his career, but he seems extremely overhyped. I'd rather test his trade value in the off season and go with a rotation of Bellinger, Grisham, (if they can re-sign them ), Judge and Jones, Thoughts? thanks
The difference between Jasson Domínguez and Giancarlo Stanton in the outfield is interesting. Stanton looks like an outfielder, right? He knows what routes to take, is confident catching the ball, etc. With him, it’s just a question of whether he can get to the baseball given his lack of speed. Domínguez, meanwhile, doesn’t look comfortable at the point of the catch. He has what Stanton doesn’t have (speed) and doesn’t have what Stanton has (instincts, etc.). I think Domínguez has gotten better in left as the season has progressed, but he’s still not good out there. He’s a work in progress, generously speaking.
I am ready and willing to trade any young player, including Domínguez. Trade them for appropriate value, of course, but I’m willing to trade ‘em all. Realistically, Domínguez is a platoon bat with negative defensive value right now. That doesn’t mean he will be that forever, but he does have a long way to go to be more than that. The defense is not good and neither is the righty swing. Fortunately for Jasson, he can really run the bases, he’s more effective on the heavy side of the platoon, and he’s a hard worker who has put in a lot of time trying to get better. I’m not sure the trade value matches the prospect hype at the moment, but sure, I’d be totally fine trading Domínguez this offseason.
Dan asks: I read somewhere that Cam Schlittler is a supinator with his wrist action and not a pronator, and as a result he does not throw changeups or splitters and instead focuses on curveballs and sliders. My question is is at all possible to throw a change up with supinator wrist action, or do they all require pronation?
Supinators are pitchers who roll their wrist and get on the side of the baseball. If you’re a righty looking straight ahead at your hand, it rotates clockwise upon release. Pronators are the opposite. They turn over the baseball, so a righty’s hand rotates counterclockwise upon release. This is a natural thing. You’re either a supinator or a pronator the same way you’re either right-handed or left-handed. You are what you are.
“(The cutter) was an easy pitch to work on and get the results with,” Schlittler told Greg Johnson earlier this year. “Easy grip, just naturally being a supinator is just an easy thing for me. Obviously I’m still trying to figure out some of the shape stuff a little bit, but overall, it’s been really good.”
Generally speaking, supinators are breaking ball masters, but changeups are a challenge. Pronators have an easier time throwing changeups, and they can spin breaking balls too. It is possible for a supinator to throw a changeup. It’s just really hard. The kick-change*, the new pitch that was a thing last year and this spring, helps make it possible. The kick-change is basically a spike changeup. A supinator spikes his finger on the ball, and when he releases it, the spiked finger “kicks out” and creates changeup action.
The Yankees had Schlittler work on a changeup and a splitter in the minors, but he’s been unable to master either, so they’re on the shelf right now. He hasn’t thrown a single changeup or splitter in his six big league starts. It’s all four-seamers, cutters, sliders/sweepers, and curveballs (and a few sinkers). I’m not sure what the plan is moving forward. Splitter? Kick-change? No offspeed pitch at all? Whatever it is, the fastball/cutter/breaking balls will always be Schlittler's bread and butter.
* David Laurila interviewed a few kick-change guys last September. Interesting stuff if you want to learn more about the pitch.
Rob asks: It feels like Will Warren’s ERA is inflated by a couple of disaster starts, which had me thinking - is there a preference between these two guys? Guy A: 4.50 ERA with mostly quality starts (6 IP, 1-2 ER) and a few blowups where your team has no chance. Guy B: consistently pitches to the 4.50 ERA which keeps your team in most games but never is shutdown.
Guy B is your standard No. 4-5 innings-eater, and that’s fine. You need those guys to get through 162 games. Guy A could potentially start a postseason game though, right? If things go sideways in October, you can pull him early, otherwise you let him cook. I’m a high-end performance guy. Give me the pitcher who will give you a few ace-like starts along the way over the guy who is consistently mediocre, even if that guy is more predictable and easier to plan around (bullpen usage, etc.).
Anonymous asks: Would having 4 players (Judge, Bellinger, Chisholm, Grisham) with 30+ homeruns be a record? Would having 3 more players (Rice, Volpe, Wells- Maybe even Stanton and Suarez?) with 20+ be another record?
This is one of those weeks-old questions, hence the Eugenio Suárez mention. With 41 games to play, it would take a welcome hot streak for Cody Bellinger (22), Trent Grisham (21), Jazz Chisholm Jr. (20), or anyone other than Aaron Judge to reach 30 homers. To answer the question, no, four 30-homer guys would not be a record. The 2023 Braves (Ronald Acuña, Ozzie Albies, Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley) and 2019 Twins (Nelson Cruz, Mitch Garver, Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sanó) each had five guys with 30 homers. 13 other teams have had four 30-homer hitters, though the Yankees have never done it, if you can believe that. The record for 20-homer hitters is eight – eight! – by the 2019 Twins. The Yankees had seven a few times, most recently 2019 (Judge, Brett Gardner, DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sánchez, Gleyber Torres, Gio Urshela, Luke Voit). The Yankees have a chance to get to seven this year. Maybe even eight if Giancarlo Stanton stays as hot as he’s been the last few weeks.
Lynn asks: What do you think of the X-W/L stat? Does it really tell us anything about the team?
Expected win-loss record (Pythagorean record to use old heads) is based on run differential. The Yankees are 64-57, and their +90 run differential says they “should” be 69-52, so a five-game underperformance. Only the Braves (-6 wins), Rangers (-7), Rays (-7), and White Sox (-8) have underperformed their run differential more. The Guardians are +8 wins and the Angels and Blue Jays are +5. Every other team is in the +3 to -3 range, which is a “xW-L is an inexact science” thing more than a reflection of those teams.
I never look at xW-L. I look at run differential all the time and I know what’s good and what’s not, but I never check xW-L. At this point in the season, “good” teams should have a +50 run differential or so. If you’re below -50, you’re pretty bad. If you’re in the mushy middle, well, then you’re in the mushy middle. Run differential and thus xW-L is a good quick and dirty overview of team performance, and that’s really it. It is overused, especially early in the season and in small sample sizes, but obviously outscoring your opponent is good. Under/overperformance is usually tied to coin flip games (one-run games, extra-inning games, etc.) and sequencing, which the Yankees are bad at.
(The 2017 Yankees were unexpectedly good and extremely fun. That team went 91-71. Their +198 run differential says they “should” have gone 100-62 though. A nine-game difference! The 2017 Yankees were better than expected while also massively underperforming.)
Gregg asks: Looking back to how bright the future looked after the 2017 season, please rate 1-10 your level of frustration in this group achieving 0 championships and one WS appearance since then.
This is a tough one. I understand it is very, very hard to win the World Series. You don’t just have to be the best team. You have to play your best at the right time, you have to be healthy, you have to get a little lucky along the way, etc. So much has to go right to win a championship. Am I disappointed the Yankees haven’t won a World Series since the Aaron Judge era launched in 2017? Yes, of course, but also I do understand it just within the context of “winning the World Series is hard.”
At the same time, I don’t think the Yankees have always put their best foot forward since 2017. Payroll has needlessly come down some years, young position players keep stalling out, etc. On a scale of 1-10, I would say my frustration with not winning a World Series since 2017 is a 6, and my frustration with how the Yankees have operated since 2017 is closer to a 9. I can’t go to a full 10 because it could be so much worse (so, so much worse), but I am really frustrated, for sure.
Kyle asks: Can you help explain what happened to Didi's 295ft home run in 2017? Lorenzo Cain's 302 ft home run is considered the "shortest over-the-wall home run of the statcast era". It seems like Didi's hit officially does not have a distance now?
Here is the Didi Gregorius homer in question. He wrapped it around the Pesky Pole, and Statcast, which was in its third year and not nearly as refined as it is now, spit out 295 feet. That’s not correct and the distance was scrubbed from the database. There is no official measurement. The shortest Pesky Pole homer on record is Cain’s 302-footer (video). Figure Sir Didi’s is in that neighborhood. It might even be shorter, but we can’t say for sure.
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
Mark Davis
I wonder if anyone is doing research on the interaction of psychology and physiology in baseball hot streaks/slumps. Baseball unique in that they play almost every single day, and the pitcher - hitter interaction entails a degree of forethought that other sports, which are more instant action/reaction.
Ryan Price
I’ve just stopped getting my hopes up, it’s kinda nice. Maybe they’ll surprise us. A first round date with the Astros will be quite the statement win or loss either way
