RAB Thoughts
patreon
August 29th, 2025: Stanton, Gil, Caballero, Volpe, Fried, Judge, Bullpen, 2026 Schedule, Mailbag
🕑 Added 2025-08-29 10:00:12 +0000 UTCJust a heads-up, it’ll be a shorter post Tuesday. It's Labor Day weekend and I’m gonna take it easy and recharge a bit before things get crazy the next few weeks. Anyway, I was flipping through games Wednesday night and saw the Angels started Oswald Peraza at first base, in case you’re wondering how things are going for the Angels and Peraza these days. Kyle Higashioka took Peraza deep later in the game (video), so yeah. Let’s get to today’s entirely too long post.
1. Weekday thoughts. Too bad the Yankees can’t play the Nationals more often, eh? They outscored them 26-8 in the three-game sweep and saw 77 pitches in that nine-run third inning Wednesday (video). Sarah Langs says that is the second most pitches any team has seen in any inning since 2000. The Red Sox had a 91-pitch (!) first inning against the Marlins in 2003. Between all the offense, the Drew Millas injury delay, and a replay review, that was a 41-minute half-inning. It defeated the pitch clock.
“It was outstanding,” Aaron Boone told Mark Feinsand about the nine-run inning. “That was some banging right there.”
Wednesday’s win improved the Yankees to 41-28 at home and clinched a 34th straight winning season at Yankee Stadium. Their last losing season at home was 1991 (39-42). It’s the second longest streak of winning seasons at home in history behind a 47-year streak for the 1918-64 Yankees. Yes, the World Series drought stinks, but there are a lot of grown ass adult Yankees fans out there who have never seen a bad team. I mean an actually bad team, not just 2013 or 2023 bad. Anyway, here are a few thoughts on the last few games. (More of the Ryan Ruocco/Joe Girardi booth, please.)
The best Stanton has been as a Yankee
I love that photo. It’s old (I think it’s from 2022?), but I still love it. Giancarlo Stanton had a put the team on his back game Tuesday (2-for-3 with a three-run double and a two-run homer) in the middle of his put the team on his back hot streak. 187 plate appearances into his season, Big G is hitting .305/.380/.647 (180 wRC+) with 17 home runs. He’s got a chance to hit 25 homers in fewer than 81 games played. (Stanton can max out at 80 games right now.)
“This I feel like – and it's saying a lot — is maybe as good as I've seen him, just consistency-wise,” Boone told Feinsand following Tuesday’s game. “Consistency of at-bat after at-bat after at-bat. I feel like he is controlling the zone probably as well as I've ever seen him.”
I agree with Boone. Stanton seems in control of every at-bat. It doesn’t show up anywhere in the plate discipline numbers though. His chase rate, swing rates, contact rates, and all that are right in line with the last few years. If anything, there’s room for Stanton to swing at more pitches in the zone, but he’s so locked in right now that who am I to say he should do this and that? This is the good stuff:
Sweet-spot rate is the percent of batted balls in the 8-32 degree launch angle range, which is ideal. Those are line drives and the fly balls that go for extra bases, not the fly balls that hang up long enough for an outfielder to catch. 37.4% is Stanton’s best outside 2020. When you hit the ball as hard as this guy (the exit velocity is still right at the top of the league) and hit the ball at these angles, a hot streak like this follows.
Even while playing roughly half the time, Stanton has carried the Yankees while Aaron Judge works to find his swing. I thought Judge was close in St. Louis and Tampa, then he no-showed against the Red Sox, then he had an okay series against the Nationals. Wednesday’s homer into Monument Park came on the kinda mistake pitch Judge has been missing/fouling away. A good sign? I hope so. I miss MVP Judge.
(I really do think Judge’s slump is just timing. He’s still hitting the ball as hard as ever and I’m not sure he would be able to do that if his flexor/elbow was hindering him. Judge is in "late on hard stuff/early on soft stuff" mode. We can’t rule out the injury, obviously, but this seems like a typical Judge slump.)
When Judge slumps, the Yankees can have a hard time scoring runs, but Stanton is filling that middle of the order dominator void. Is this the best he’s ever been as a Yankee? It might be, especially once you factor in the degree of difficulty with the dual tennis elbows thing. Giancarlo is hitting .358/.421/.835 (239 wRC+) in his last 35 games. That’s a 1.256 OPS. His best non-overlapping 35-game stretches as a Yankee:
1. 1.256 OPS (his last 35 games)
2. 1.063 OPS (Aug. 28th to Sept. 28th, 2021)
3. 1.024 OPS (June 13th to July 23rd, 2018)
“I haven't taken a huge dive into the underlying numbers, but if that's in the conversation, it's a good conversation to have,” Stanton told Feinsand when asked if this is the best stretch of his career. “I'm moving forward one day at a time, so I’ve just got to keep it rolling. Make sure I'm ready. Don't miss the mistakes.”
(This isn’t the best stretch of Stanton’s career. He hit 30 homers in 48 games at one point during his 2017 MVP season with the Marlins lol.)
While on the subject of outfielders, Trent Grisham’s leadoff homer Wednesday (video) was the Yankees’ 11th this season. Only the Dodgers (12 because of Shohei Ohtani) have more. Those 11 leadoff homers are the second most in franchise history behind the 2003 team (15 because of Alfonso Soriano). It’ll take a hot streak, but the franchise leadoff home run record is in play with a month to go in the season.
“I think I feel pretty comfortable (leading off),” Grisham told Bryan Hoch earlier this week. “I’ve done it a lot in my life. Being the first guy they send out is fun. We have a really good offense, and being the first guy we send up means a lot.”
Judge and Cody Bellinger went back-to-back later in Wednesday’s game (video). Between Judge (41), Grisham (27), and Bellinger (26), the Yankees have a real chance to have three 30-homer outfielders this season. That has been done only twice in baseball history:
1963 Twins: Harmon Killebrew (45), Bob Allison (35), Jimmie Hall (33)
1941 Yankees: Charlie Keller (33), Tommy Heinrich (31), Joe DiMaggio (30)
Those 1941 Yankees are the only other team in franchise history with three 25-homer outfielders, which the Yankees have now. Even two 30-homer outfielders is pretty uncommon. Jo Adell and Taylor Ward are already there for the Angels this year, and Judge and Juan Soto did it last year. Before them though, no team had done it since 2019, the rocket ball season.
I thought Stanton might be able to give the Yankees four 25-homer outfielders, but nah. He has only hit six homers as an outfielder (nine as a DH and two as a pinch-hitter), and it seems unlikely he’ll play enough outfield to actually qualify as an outfielder rather than a DH. I love Big G, but I really hope Judge can get back into the outfield soon. For many reasons, including fewer rest days for Stanton.
It has been a bumpy and occasionally agonizing season, but the 2025 Yankees have given us some really moments (ahem), and Giancarlo going on an FU tour is atop my “fun things about the 2025 Yankees” list. He’s been great overall and there are times it feels like he’s the only Yankee capable of delivering a big hit (.347/.484/.755 and 232 wRC+ with RISP!). This man should never hear another boo in pinstripes.
“He’s locked in,” Bellinger told Feinsand. “It seems like every at-bat is a quality at-bat. He hits the ball harder than anyone I've ever seen. It's really, really fun to watch and really impressive.”
Gil’s velocity
Five innings of one-run ball is five innings of one-run ball, though it was a laborious five innings for Luis Gil on Tuesday: 5 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 4 BB, 5 K (video) on 95 pitches. Gil’s velocity was down in that start. He threw a 91.7 mph fastball at one last point! Last year his changeup – his changeup – averaged 91.4 mph. The velocity was enough of a concern that the trainer checked on Gil in the fourth inning, though he stayed in.
Boone told Gary Phillips the velocity dip happened because Gil was trying to throw strikes and “backed off” his fastball, which, okay. Even if that is true and explains Tuesday, Gil’s velocity is down overall this year, and it has been trending down his last few starts. He’s had a slower average fastball in his last two starts than he did in any start last season:
Gil did hump it up to 97.7 mph in his fifth and final inning, so it’s not like he sat 92-94 mph all game. Still, Gil’s velocity is down and has been trending down with each MLB start this season. That’s at least a little worrisome, especially for a guy who spent four months on the shelf with a lat strain. Taking a little off in the fourth inning Tuesday to throw strikes doesn’t explain the overall trend this last month.
Ultimately, Gil is five big league starts back from a lat strain, and we are seeing consistent 94s. Maybe it’s just a dead arm phase, the kind guys run into in the middle of Spring Training or even April? He’s just not where pitchers would normally be five starts into their regular season because of the lat strain and the layoff. For now, this is a thing to watch. If Gil’s velocity continues to trend down, then it’s a real concern.
“With every outing, I’m feeling stronger and more confident out there,” Gil told Phillips. “There’s work to be done, but I feel like I’m on the right track, and there’s no doubt in my mind I’ll get back to that 100% level that I was before.”
The biggest lead in baseball history
Statcast clocked that lead at 86.9 feet, which means José Caballero was 3.1 feet away from second base when old pal Clayton Beeter made his first movement. I see those Yankees fundamentals (not checking the runner) are sticking with Beeter. For real though, that is gonna skew Beeter’s and Caballero’s lead distance for the entire season, not that I have much interest in that stuff right now.
"I said (to Caballero), 'You made this thing work a little bit' with how he's jumping around out there,” Boone told Phillips, referring to his pacemaker.
Caballero came off the bench to steal that base Tuesday night. He started at short Sunday and Monday because the Yankees gave Anthony Volpe a “reset” that wasn’t really a reset. Volpe came off the bench to play defense Sunday and Boone said he would “probably” use Volpe off the bench Monday (but ultimately didn’t because it was a blowout). Still, Volpe had to prepare for that game as if he would play.
Maybe I’m completely wrong here, but isn’t the whole point of a “reset” just turning your brain off for a day or two, and putting yourself in a better place mentally? How does a player get that mental reset when he comes off the bench one day and “probably” would do the same the next day? The Yankees can’t even give Volpe a proper day off. Just let the kid sit a day or two. Why is that so hard?
Volpe returned to the lineup Tuesday and has started every game since. His slump now stands at 3-for-40 with 14 strikeouts (and no walks!), and that includes his two hits Thursday. Volpe made two outs in the nine-run third inning Wednesday and made more than 20% of the team’s outs that game (five of 24). The last Yankee to make two outs in one inning? Volpe on June 10th. This is one of the ugliest slumps I can ever remember.
September is a weekend away and Volpe is hitting .207/.271/.397 (83 wRC+). I keep seeing people talking about Volpe’s offensive inconsistency, but an 83 wRC+ in 2023, an 87 wRC+ in 2024, and an 83 wRC+ in 2025 seems pretty consistent to me. Part of me is morbidly curious to see how bad this can get before the Yankees swallow their pride and send Volpe to Triple-A. More Caballero, por favor. He’s the better player and these are important games.
Miscellany
It can be hard to tell what’s real in a blowout game against a bad team on a getaway day, but Max Fried was very good Wednesday: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 6 K (video) on 94 pitches. That was his second straight strong start after a way-too-long stretch of stinkers. Getting Fried on track is an absolute must and he looks to be doing that. A welcome sight … Cam Schlittler. I mean, holy shit? Monday’s line: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 8 K (video) on 96 pitches. I know the Nationals stink, but still. That dude has the goods. Hopefully the 10.9 BB% comes down soon. I’m willing to chalk that up to being a rookie pitcher for now. Otherwise, man does this kid look great … Cody Bellinger is 10 for his last 14 with two doubles, two homers, two walks, and no strikeouts. That little slump he had earlier this month is officially over … He drives me crazy sometimes, but Jazz Chisholm Jr. makes it worth it with bat drops like this:
The .242/.338/.495 (130 wRC+) slash line with 26 homers, 24 steals, and +3.9 WAR helps too. Jazz is a flawed but very productive player who is a first ballot lock for the Hall of Fun As Hell … Mark Leiter Jr. has a strikeout problem. As in, he doesn’t strike anyone out anymore. On June 23rd, he had a 32.1 K% in 31 innings. It’s a 9.4 K% since then. Five strikeouts in 53 batters. There’s the knee injury mixed in there, but Leiter has been back for almost a month now. Even if you’re only the sixth or seventh guy in the bullpen, you can’t be running strikeout rates that would be low for Tim Hill … Speaking of strikeout rates, welcome back Fernando Cruz. He returned from his oblique strain and Boone threw him right into the fire Tuesday (sixth inning of a two-run game). Cruz went single, hit batter, strikeout, bunt single, strikeout, then he made this face:
You okay, Fernando? Anyway, Hill came in and stranded the bases loaded, and Cruz had a clean 1-2-3 inning Thursday. Getting him back will be such a big lift for the bullpen … And finally, Ryan McMahon really needed that home run Wednesday (video). He then added a double Thursday. The defense has been consistently great, but it’s still a .211/.314/.333 (86 wRC+) line and 32.4 K% as Yankees. Hopefully these last two days are a sign McMahon is coming around.
Injury updates and roster moves
Still no timetable for Judge (flexor) to return to the outfield. He has been throwing to the bases and all that the last few days, so he’s progressing with his throwing program. They’re just not ready to let him throw in actual games yet … Ryan Yarbrough (oblique) made his third and likely final rehab start Tuesday: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 6 K on 63 pitches. He lines up perfectly to be activated and available when rosters expand Monday. That’s an off-day though, so we’ll see him Tuesday … Jonathan Loáisiga (elbow) has a flexor strain. He doesn’t need surgery but his season is over. This probably ends Loáisiga’s time with the Yankees too. Only Judge (2013 draft pick) and Oswaldo Cabrera (July 2015 international signing) have been in the organization longer than Loáisiga, who originally joined the Yankees as a minor league free agent in February 2016. We’ll see though. Maybe the Yankees give him a minor league deal or something this offseason. They love the guy … Yerry De Los Santos was sent down when Cruz returned because the Yankees want to keep Paul Blackburn around for length. Boone tried to squeeze a third inning out of De Los Santos in Monday’s blowout and he gave up three singles and two walks while being clearly out of gas. That was a pretty good indication Yerry was on the way out.
Up next
The last few days of this White Sox series slash August slash this 13 games in 13 days stretch. After this, it’s a nightmare four-series stretch to begin September (Astros, Blue Jays, Tigers, Red Sox). We can worry about that next week. Here’s the rest of the weekend:
Friday at White Sox: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Yoendrys Gómez (7:40pm ET on YES)
Saturday at White Sox: RHP Cam Schlittler vs. RHP Shane Smith (7pm ET on YES)
Sunday at White Sox: RHP Luis Gil vs. LHP Martín Pérez (2pm ET on YES)
Monday: off-day (an off-day on Labor Day?)
Rosters expand Monday, though you only get one extra pitcher and one extra position player these days. I hate it. I wrote a thing defending full September call ups at CBS a long time ago. I think it holds up well.
Anyway, Yarbrough is expected to come off the injured list and be the 14th pitcher. I wonder if the Yankees would start him Tuesday? They’d have a rested bullpen behind him coming out of the off-day, and it would buy an extra day for the other five starters. The Yankees have two rookies pushing career high workloads and another starter who missed four months with an injury. Extra rest wouldn’t be a bad idea. We’ll see.
As for the extra position player, it doesn’t sound like Austin Slater will be ready to return Monday. J.C. Escarra, Braden Shewmake, and Jorbit Vivas are the only 40-man roster position players in Scranton, though Loáisiga is a 60-day IL candidate, so the Yankees could add someone. Spencer Jones? That would surprise me (where would he play?). The last few months suggest it will be Escarra until Slater returns.
2. Four things you may or may not know about the 2025 Yankees. I originally had this in the hopper for Tuesday’s post, but I ran the Red Sox series stuff on Monday instead, so this goes now. Here is the first edition of this feature from June and here now are four other possibly uninteresting things you may or may not already know about the 2025 Yankees.
Judge may set a record for first inning homers
Relatively speaking, it has been tough sledding of late for Aaron Judge, who is hitting .216/.386/.435 (131 wRC+) since coming off the injured list and .234/.381/.521 (126 wRC+) in almost 250 plate appearances since the admittedly arbitrary date of June 14th. That’s a pretty long stretch of Judge being above average but not superhuman. It’s kinda wild how noticeable the difference is between 130 wRC+ Judge and 200 wRC+ Judge, isn’t it?
Even without a historic pace these last few weeks, Judge could still make history this season. Specifically, he could set a new single-season record for first inning homers. Whose record would he break? His own, of course (or at least a record he shares). Here are the most first inning homers in a season:
1. Aaron Judge, 2024: 18
2. Alex Rodriguez, 2001: 18
3. Mark McGwire, 1999: 17
4. Babe Ruth, 1927: 16
5. Sammy Sosa, 2001: 16
Judge has 15 first inning homers this season. He’s charging hard too. He hit first inning homers against the Twins on Aug. 12th, the Cardinals on Aug. 16th, and the Rays on Aug. 19th. Three in the last two weeks and change. I know Judge hasn’t been himself at the plate lately, but come on, if I told you Judge will own this record outright in a week, would it surprise you?
(Since I have it in front of me, any guesses on the all-time leader in first inning homers? It’s Albert Pujols with 154. No one else has more than 133. Judge is 31st all-time with 80 first inning dingers.)
Thanks largely to Judge, the Yankees have been the best first inning offense in baseball this season and not by a little either. Here are their first inning ranks:
AVG: .286 (1st in MLB; Blue Jays second at .271)
OBP: .356 (1st in MLB; Red Sox second at .346)
SLG: .577 (1st in MLB; Dodgers second at .521)
wRC+: 156 (1st in MLB; Dodgers second at 133)
HR: 41 (1st in MLB; Dodgers second with 33)
(Those 41 first inning homers are already a franchise record. The all-time record is 47 by the 2023 Braves. That is within reach.)
The first inning is historically the highest scoring inning because it’s the only inning the top of each team’s lineup (i.e. their best hitters) is guaranteed to bat. Who leads the Yankees in first inning plate appearances? Judge, Trent Grisham, Cody Bellinger, and Ben Rice in that order. That explains their first inning dominance, including Judge’s shot at making first inning homer history.
The defense hates Fried and Leiter
Set the minimum to 100 defensive chances, and here are the pitchers who have had the worst defensive support behind them this season:
To be clear, that is how the defense has played behind those pitchers. That’s not Max Fried with a -8 OAA personally. He’s a terrific defender. And the thing is, the bad defense is limited to Fried and Leiter. Every other pitcher on the staff has had average or better defense played behind them. Here are the Yankees’ pitchers with a minimum of 100 defensive chances:
Fried I can understand. He’s a weak contact/ground ball guy and Anthony Volpe’s had a down defensive year, the Yankees played DJ LeMahieu’s total lack of range at second base for a while, they had Jazz Chisholm Jr. throwing the ball wildly at third base for a month, etc. Put an unreliable infield behind a guy who needs his infield to make plays, and he’s going to get burned now and then.
Leiter is getting absolutely crushed on ground balls. His 47.2 GB% is solidly above average but not super high, and the Yankees just aren’t turning those ground balls into outs. Leiter has a .345 BABIP on ground balls this year. His career average on grounders coming into this season was a .244 BABIP, which is exactly the MLB average. Leiter’s definitely had some not great outings that had nothing to do with ground balls not turning into outs, but man, the guy has deserved better results along the way too.
I just don’t get why this is limited to Fried and Leiter. Every other pitcher the Yankees have run out there for a representative number of innings this season has benefited from average or even (gasp) very good defense. Then there’s Fried and Leiter watching their defenders kick the ball around so much that they’re at the bottom of the pitcher OAA leaderboard league-wide. Poor guys.
The Yankees are first pitch hackers
Relative to themselves over the last few years, that is. Their 31.9% swing rate in 0-0 counts ranks 15th in baseball and is almost bang-on league average (32.1%). It’s also up quite a bit from 27.6% last year and 28.1% from 2021-24. The first pitch swings are worth it though, because the Yankees have gotten incredible results on their first pitch swings:
2025: .363 AVG and .701 SLG (.463 xwOBA)
2024: .338 AVG and .631 SLG (.423 xwOBA)
2023: .313 AVG and .566 SLG (.436 xwOBA)
2022: .323 AVG and .588 SLG (.407 xwOBA)
2021: .330 AVG and .549 SLG (.415 xwOBA)
The MLB average on the first pitch this year is a .338 AVG and .579 SLG (.407 xwOBA), and the Yankees clear that easily. Why don’t more hitters swing at the first pitch if the results are so good? Well, there is some selection bias there. Some guys go up there looking to ambush their pitch on the first pitch, and if they get it, they unload, and if not, they take it. There is a lot of “they swung at the first pitch because it was a really good pitch to hit” in play here. They’re not just hacking at the first pitch indiscriminately.
As a team, the Yankees are swinging a lot more this year (46.3%) than last year (44.3%) in general. They’ve done that while still having the second lowest chase rate in baseball (25.8%). A lot of the additional swings are on pitches in the zone (64.9% vs. 62.9%), and that’s good! Not every pitch in the zone is a good pitch to hit, but, generally speaking, pitches in the zone are the pitches you should offer at. The Yankees are doing that more this year than in the past, especially on the first pitch.
The bullpen has already allowed more homers in 2025 than it did in 2022 or 2023
We’re going to be able to add 2024 to the list pretty soon too. I expected the bullpen to be more home run prone this year, but I can’t say I expected a 1.20 HR/9. That’s quite a jump from the last few years. As the subhead says, the bullpen has already allowed more home runs than it did in 2022 or 2023, and they will pass 2024 any night now. Here are the numbers going into Thursday (bullpen only):
That 2022 bullpen was fierce. Terminator Clay Holmes, Wandy Peralta’s best season, 51 innings of Mike King, Jonathan Loáisiga’s 59.6 GB%, Lucas Luetge as a low leverage guy, Ron Marinaccio’s one good season, etc. That 0.58 HR/9 led baseball and was almost half the league average. The Astros were second (0.65 HR/9), and the Tigers (0.67 HR/9) were the only other bullpen under 0.80 HR/9. Sheesh.
Part of the bullpen’s home run issues is just carrying relievers who are more home run prone than the guys they had in the past. Fernando Cruz, Devin Williams, a full season of Leiter, etc. And part of it is the guys who have been here a while being more home run prone. Tim Hill allowed two home runs last year and he’s allowed six this year, all to righties. (Aaron Boone deserves some blame there because there have definitely been a few “why is he leaving Hill in to face this righty power bat?” moments.)
Loáisiga got blasted in his 29.2 innings. Seven homers! That’s a career high. He allowed eight homers in 140.1 innings spanning 2021-24. Ian Hamilton has given up five homers this season after giving up four total in his first two seasons as a Yankee. Luke Weaver has always been home run prone, and he’s gone from 1.07 HR/9 last year to 1.35 HR/9 this year. It’s a 26% increase. It’s a lot!
The Yankees prioritized adding strikeouts to their bullpen this offseason (Cruz, Williams, etc.) and the hope was that would offset the uptick in home runs, and, frankly, those additional strikeouts haven’t shown up. The bullpen’s strikeout rate from 2021-25: 26.6%, 24.2%, 23.9%, 23.9%, 24.2%. The difference between this year’s strikeout rate and last year’s strikeout rate is one additional strikeout every 333 batters. Negligible, in other words.
The 2022-23 bullpens really ground ball-pilled me. Homers in high leverage situations are game-flippers, and ground balls don’t go for home runs. The bullpen being more home run prone this year was expected. I did write about it back in February. Not getting the strikeouts to help offset the homers has been a real killer. There’s a reason the bullpen was such a liability earlier this season. (The tide does seem to be turning, thankfully.)
3. 2026 schedule announced. MLB finally got around to revealing the 2026 schedule earlier this week. The press release hit everyone’s inbox about five minutes after Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift announced their engagement. Impeccable timing as always, MLB. Here is the Yankees’ schedule (here’s the link to the schedule on the official site):
The Yankees released a fun Freddy Sez themed video highlighting their notable 2026 series. Anyway, it’s a schedule, it’s only so interesting, but there are a few things I want to highlight and touch on quickly, so let’s do that now. This is in chronological-ish order.
Opening Day: The Yankees open next season with a West Coast trip through San Francisco and Seattle. Their first game is Wednesday, March 25th, at Oracle Park, and that is the only game on the schedule that day. MLB is trying an Opening Night thing with one featured game to begin the season. I assume that will be a national broadcast on who knows what network/streaming service. This will be the second time in four years the Yankees open against the Giants. Surely you remember Aaron Judge taking Logan Webb deep in the first inning on Opening Day 2023 (video), after the Arson Judge stuff that offseason.
The Yankees and Giants play Wednesday, have Thursday off, play Friday and Saturday, then have Sunday off. A Sunday off-day? Weird. Because of early season off-days, the Yankees won’t need their No. 5 starter until Saturday, April 11th, in their 14th game of the season. The Yankees haven’t used off-days to skip their No. 5 starter much the last few years though. They’ve taken the extra rest whenever they can.
A trip to London? Jorge Castillo says MLB considered that June 12-14 series against the Blue Jays for a London Series, though it “likely” won’t happen because London Stadium will be used for a soccer match on May 24th, and they won’t have enough time to convert it. Castillo makes it sound like the door is still open a tiny little bit, so who knows. The various London Series have been two-gamers with two days off leading up to it and one day off after. If London happens, I bet MLB moves the June 12th game to that Aug. 17th off-day. That is, conveniently, an off-day for both the Yankees and Blue Jays with easy travel afterward, and it wouldn’t result in a super long stretch of games with an off-day for either team. Hmmm.
Sept. 11th: The Yankees and Mets will play three games at Yankee Stadium from Sept. 11-13 and be on the field together for the 25th anniversary of Sept. 11th. Next year will be the second time the Yankees and Mets play on that date. They played at Citi Field on the 20th anniversary in 2021. I understand the sentiment that the two New York teams should play each other on that date every season, but you know MLB would turn it into “get your commemorative dual Yankees/Mets hat with Sept. 11th remembrance patch! only $65!” in no time, and that wouldn’t sit right with me. Every five years is a-okay.
Four West Coast trips: Four! Two of them are three-game trips too. Three games tacked onto a road trip to the Midwest, so the travel’s not too bad, but still. The Yankees start the season out west and also have to make a trip to Arizona in the penultimate weekend of the season. Two West Coast trips in September too. The perils of the new, more balanced schedule, I suppose.
No word on the Rays yet: Neither MLB’s press release nor the Rays’ press release said anything about where the Rays will play next season. Tropicana Field is currently undergoing repairs (a family member of one of my CBS coworkers drove by recently and said the roof is starting to go up) and the hope is the stadium will be ready for next season, though I guess MLB can’t commit to it yet. For what it’s worth, the Rays’ schedule is balanced next year. It’s not frontloaded with home games to avoid the Florida swamp weather in August like this year. For now, we're still awaiting word on the Trop and George M. Steinbrenner Field for 2026. (Maybe the Rays will start the season at GMS Field and move to the Trop when it’s ready? The Blue Jays did that with Buffalo and Toronto for pandemic reasons in 2021.)
Mailbag Questions of the Week
Michael asks: Assuming the Yankees make the post season, how would you craft the roster?
The Wild Card Series is a best-of-three with no off-day, and you only get one day off between the end of the regular season and the start of the Wild Card Series. That means your Game 162 starting pitcher can not pitch in the Wild Card Series on normal rest. So, teams have been leaving that guy off their Wild Card Series roster. Imagine having to start Max Fried in Game 162 just to get to the postseason, then leaving him off the Wild Card Series roster because he won’t be available? It could happen!
The opponent will factor into the roster construction (do you need an extra lefty reliever? etc.) and obviously so much can change between now and then. For now, let’s assume the Yankees have the luxury of setting their rotation and will play an opponent with a platoon neutral lineup, and that their injured guys return when expected. This would be my Wild Card Series roster:
I’m assuming Gil, Schlittler, or Warren will start Game 162. Leave whichever one starts Game 162 off the Wild Card Series roster and go with 12 pitchers and 14 position players. Rosario and Slater are extra righty bats, Domínguez is the go-to pinch-runner, and Volpe can pinch-run and be the extra infielder. (If it has to be Stanton in right and Judge at DH, then that’s what it has to be.)
The bullpen kinda fills itself out. Maybe you prefer De Los Santos to Doval, but eh. A 100 mph cutter buys you a lot of rope in my eyes. If anything, it might be De Los Santos over Leiter, not Doval, especially if Leiter doesn’t remember how to miss bats soon. Who starts Game 3? I would go Schlittler, but if you need him to come out of the bullpen to get 4-6 outs in Game 1 or 2, then do it.
No matter who starts Game 3, I want the other guy on the roster and in the bullpen. Whoever it is, that guy will be one of the 12 best pitchers available to me, so carry him. Game 3 will essentially be a bullpen game anyway, right? Whoever starts that win or go home game won’t have a long leash. As always, the best pitching plan for Game 3 is to win the series in two.
Larry asks: David Cone said the other day that Rice has one of the best Hard Hit Rates in the majors, and that shows he has been hitting into bad luck. But we all know Wee Willie Keller said "Hit 'em where they ain't" because he was right. That is why Ichiro is, deservedly, in the Hall of Fame. So didn't Cone misuse the Hard Hit Rate stat?
Benny Barrels went quiet in May and June, picked it up in July, and has been on a rampage in August. He took a .246/.342/.497 (133 wRC+) line with 19.6 K% and 10.7 BB% into Thursday’s game. Also a 9.0% swinging strike rate that is much better than the league average (10.9%) and in the same range as noted contact guys like Bo Bichette (8.9%), Ketel Marte (8.9%), and Francisco Lindor (9.3%).
Rice has a 130 OPS+ (OPS+ and wRC+ are the same concept, just calculated with different adjustments). He is one of nine qualified hitters with a 130 OPS+, a sub-20 K%, and a 10+ BB% this season. Only a handful of guys do it each year and they’re basically the best half-dozen or so hitters in the sport. Rice has been so, so good. He’s making a lot of contact and he’s absolutely smashing the ball:
To answer the question, Cone didn’t misuse hard-hit rate (i.e. percent of batted balls with 95+ mph exit velocity), it was just an oversimplification. Rice is underperforming his Statcast expected stats (.497 SLG vs. .592 xSLG, etc.) in part due to bad luck, he has hit some rockets right at defenders, though Rice does tend to hit the ball to the same spots. Especially his hardest hit balls.
Here is the spray heat map of Rice’s hard-hit fly balls and line drives:
Teams position their outfielders, particularly their right and center fielders, in those big red splotches, which is why Rice’s .412 BABIP on those batted balls is below the .460 league average (it’s not bad luck if an outfielder can camp under it). It’s part bad luck and part a product of being predictable as a hitter, and this isn’t to say Rice should use left field more. By all means, keep pulling the ball. Just understand that sometimes those rockets will go for outs and it will be frustrating, and it won't always be the BABIP gods being mean.
Bill asks: They won't, of course, but shouldn't the Yankees sit Judge on days Stanton can't play the outfield? At least until he starts showing some consistent signs of life at the plate?
Honestly, I’m fine with Giancarlo Stanton sitting on the days he doesn’t play the outfield. He played three straight games in the field two weeks ago and then had to sit out an entire weekend because his legs were sore and he was slow to recover. It’s not just the history of lower body muscle pulls either. He’s playing with two bad elbows and admitted he has to manage the pain. The Yankees can’t push Stanton too much and risk losing him to another injury. It sucks, I don’t like having him out of the lineup basically half the time, but if that’s what it takes to keep him on the field and available, then so be it. (It’s also possible all the regular games off are contributing to his production by keeping him rested.) Keep running Aaron Judge out there at DH. He’s not going to lock back in on the plate sitting on the bench, and the Yankees have to get him going.
Brian asks: If it were your decision, would you offer Trent Grisham the qualifying offer? Seems like a no brainer to me. I’m sure Cashman would rather offer a 3 mil a year over the next 7 years instead of one year for 21 million though.
I would, sure. The qualifying offer will be in the $22M range and that’s more than reasonable for Grisham’s age 29 season. I wouldn’t want to go long-term with him, there’s been some real slippage with his defense this year, but the Yankees will need a center fielder next year and Grisham’s a 25-homer dude who fits Yankee Stadium well. I would much rather overpay (if you can even call $22M an overpay) for Grisham’s age 29 season than pay, say, $15M a year for his age 29-33 seasons.
That said, I would understand the Yankees not making Grisham the qualifying offer. The compensation pick would be after the fourth round. That’s not super valuable, and if they intend to make a run at Kyle Tucker or whichever surprise/expensive trade candidate hits the market (like Tucker last offseason), I can understand wanting payroll flexibility and not having Grisham suddenly eat up $22M by accepting the qualifying offer. If it were a pick after the first round, then yeah, do it. That’s a high value pick. But a pick after the fourth round? Eh, I could understand valuing the payroll flexibility more than that.
Eric asks: I was looking at Trent Grisham's Savant page and noticed his sprint speed has drastically declined since his Padres days. How much of that is affecting his defense, and is this just part of the normal aging curve? Thanks!
Grisham played through a supposedly minor hamstring injury a few weeks ago and he was noticeably slower on the bases and in the outfield. I'm sure the Yankees told not to push it too hard and risk a more serious injury. Still, Grisham’s speed has been trending down over the years. A hamstring injury in 2025 doesn’t explain all of this:
The league average sprint speed, which is a player’s fastest one-second window, is 27 feet per second. Grisham is about average these days after being closer to the top of the league earlier in his career. He’s not old, Grisham will turn only 29 in November, but speed can decline quickly, especially for a player who doesn’t have that traditional lithe, athletic center field body. Trent’s got some meat on him.
The speed and defensive decline are the main reasons I don’t want to go long-term with Grisham. I would happily take him back in 2026 on the qualifying offer or a deal along those lines, but he’s not too far away from becoming a corner outfielder, and perhaps not a great one defensively. The offensive bar is higher on the corners, and while Trent has a corner outfield bat this year, will he still have it in 2-3 years? Grisham is slowing down. The numbers match the eye test. The hamstring is part of it. Normal age-related decline is most of it, I’d say. It can come early for foot speed.
Mark asks: If we were to trade Volpe would we be selling low, or is this who he is? Does he have any trade value?
Yes it would be selling low and yes he has trade value. Anthony Volpe is still a cheap up-the-middle player with three years of control. It only takes one team to believe he’s still an above average defender and has untapped potential offensively. I have no idea what the Yankees could realistically expect in return for Volpe, but it would be a lot more than cash or a player to be named later. The Braves, Guardians, and Pirates jump to mind as teams that will need a shortstop this offseason. Other teams could have interest in him as a second baseman. This is all hypothetical, of course. I think the Yankees would go back to being called the Highlanders before they would trade Volpe.
Joe asks: You mentioned in the August 19th post that there's a bunch of recent draftees who are playing at age inappropriate levels since the Florida Complex League season has already ended. Can you give any insight into why MiLB has moved up the Rookie season to start and end so early, so that it's wrapping up before HS grad draftees even have a chance to play at an age appropriate level? It seems like an easily solvable problem from the outside.
The Arizona and Florida Complex League seasons used to run from mid June through late August/early September. MLB and the 30 teams voted to move the ACL/FCL seasons up a month last year, and J.J. Cooper says the change was made because teams were worried they wouldn’t have enough arms to pitch that deep into the season, especially since it has become standard practice to hold your drafted pitchers out of game action and instead have them focus on pitch design. There’s the added bonus of avoiding playing outdoors in Arizona and Florida in August (they used to call the ACL the Fire League because of the heat), but the schedule change was primarily about the availability of pitching, or lack thereof. Teams have organized informal games for after the ACL/FCL seasons (they call it the Bridge League), but those games are very informal, and they don’t play a set schedule. They play when they can make it work. The Bridge League isn’t a great place for a player in his first taste of pro ball.
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
John G
Didn't think this outfield would be in the company of Henrich/Keller/DiMaggio Grisham has definitely declined on defense but so good on offense. Great for them this year, but agree they should be wary long term.
Michael Axisa
Ruocco's hit or miss for me. I liked him with Girardi, not so much with other analysts.
Matthew Larkin
Was this you being sarcastic Mike: "(More of the Ryan Ruocco/Joe Girardi booth, please.)"? I suspect not since Girardi is great - but Ryan Ruocco? Really? Come on Mike - the guy is awful - hopelessly vanilla. I put the Nationals/White Sox broadcast on this week and took a much needed break from the fun sponge that is Ryan Ruocco.
