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September 9th, 2025: Judge, Blue Jays Series, Prospects, Arizona Fall League
🕑 Added 2025-09-09 10:00:11 +0000 UTCThe Yankees had a pregame ceremony to honor CC Sabathia’s Hall of Fame induction on Sunday (here’s the full ceremony) and they did not announce No. 52 will be retired. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen at some point. It just didn’t happen Sunday, which seemed like a good time to do it. Alas. The Yankees have not issued No. 52 since Sabathia retired and I don’t anticipate it being issued anytime soon. Any guesses who last wore No. 52 before Sabathia? It was Luis Vizcaino in 2007. Those first few weeks of the Nobody Beats The Viz era were fun. A sacrifice at the altar of the Joe Torre arm shredder, Vizcaino was. Let’s get to today’s post as we enter the regular season’s third-to-last week.
1. Weekend thoughts. Would you believe me if I told you the Yankees have the best record in baseball since Aug. 10th, which I admit is a cherry-picked date? By a lot too. They’re 18-7 since Aug. 10th. The Royals have the game’s second best record since then at 15-11. The 2025 Yankees are following the Aaron Boone era script to a T. Time to update:
1. Great start
2. Sluggish summer
3. Rally to finish strong (you are here)
4. Beat an AL Central team(s) in the postseason
5. Get eliminated
The Yankees took two of three from the Blue Jays over the weekend and it was not the most convincing series win (the Yankees got blown out Friday and won nail-biters Saturday and Sunday), but it was a series win, and the AL East race remains an actual race. They’re two behind Toronto in the loss column, though it’s really three because the Blue Jays hold the tiebreaker.
“Obviously (they’re) the team we’re chasing,” Aaron Boone told Gary Phillips after Sunday’s win. “So to win two out of three after dropping the first game and getting in late (Friday morning from Houston), it’s definitely a good series for us.”
Three games with 19 to play is not insurmountable. It’s just a heavy lift, especially with no head-to-head games remaining with the Blue Jays. The Yankees have a much easier schedule the rest of the way, but eh, I don’t want to put too much stock in that. The important thing is the AL East title likely comes with a Wild Card series bye. The Yankees are three games up on the Astros, should that come into play.
As for the Wild Card race, the Yankees are sitting pretty. They’re seven games up on a postseason berth and hold the tiebreaker over every team in play for the third Wild Card (Mariners, Rangers, Rays, Royals) except the Guardians, and Cleveland’s not going anywhere. Is it too early to begin counting down the magic number? I don’t think so. The magic number to clinch a postseason berth is lucky number …
There is still plenty of time for things to change. Right now, the most likely outcome is Yankees vs. Red Sox in the Wild Card Series, and these last two weeks and five days will determine whether that series is played in Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park. The Yankees were two up on Boston in the loss column going into the Red Sox’s West Coast night game Monday, though the Red Sox have the tiebreaker.
The Mariners could be a scary postseason matchup once they shrink that pitching staff down to their 8-9 best arms, but I think the best outcome short of winning the division would be Seattle passing the Red Sox for the second Wild Card, and hosting the Mariners in the Wild Card Series. We’re getting way ahead of ourselves though. No matter what race you’re focused on, wins are required. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.
Judge returns to RF
Boone said we’ll know when Aaron Judge is able to play right field when the lineup is posted and he’s in right field, and that day came Friday. Judge returned to the field for the first time since July 25th, after 27 consecutive starts at DH. Right away, the Blue Jays tested his arm, which everyone and their mother knew was coming. And, right away, it was clear Judge’s throwing is limiting.
Daulton Varsho had not yet reached third base when Judge fielded Nathan Lukes’ single in the first inning Friday. Judge has never been shy about throwing home and he had a clear shot at the plate there even with the speedy Varsho running. Instead, Judge lobbed the ball in to cutoff man Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Varsho trotted home uncontested. Statcast clocked the throw at 67.9 mph.
“I wouldn’t be in the outfield if I wasn’t able to make that throw,” Judge told Bryan Hoch after the game even though he didn’t make that throw.
“Going into it, I know it’s his first game back in the outfield and there was a little bit of an unknown with how he was going to respond,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider told Hoch. “We wanted to test it.”
Judge had to make another throw later in Friday’s game on Varsho’s ninth inning double and again, he lobbed it in to Chisholm. All told, Judge made five throws (videos) that required some level of urgency in his two games in right field over the weekend. In order, Statcast had them at 67.9 mph, 67.6 mph, 70.7 mph, 69.0 mph, and 62.7 mph. Judge’s average competitive throw* going into the series was 90.4 mph.
* Statcast defines “competitive throw” as the top 10% of throws for outfielders. That 90.4 mph doesn’t include things like a toss back into the infield after catching a routine fly ball. It’s throws with urgency.
Boone said the Yankees will use “creative cuts" (cutoffs) while Judge is throwing at less than 100%, but nothing about this weekend looked creative to me. They looked like standard cutoff plays and positioning. Judge having throwing restrictions is entirely expected. Flexor strains are serious injuries and he was never going to come back this quickly throwing will full effort. The only questions were:
1. Exactly how much would his throwing be limited?
2. How much would the other team be able to take advantage?
So far the answers are a lot and a lot. No throws over 70 mph for a player who routinely hit 90 mph when making competitive throws, and the Blue Jays took the extra base on Judge every chance they got. Even on balls hit in front of him. This will be the norm moving forward. Flexor strains don’t heal overnight and teams will continue to test Judge and take advantage of his obvious throwing limitations.
And the thing is, there’s nothing more the Yankees can do about this. They can play Judge in right field with a compromised arm or they can play Giancarlo Stanton in right field with limited range, and it’s not like teams respect Stanton’s arm when he’s in the outfield. The Red Sox and Astros ran on him every chance they got in those recent series. The Yankees have two less than ideal options in right field.
Even with a compromised arm, Judge can make a difference in the outfield. He saved a run with a diving catch Sunday (video). Stanton’s not making that play. This is not an either/or. Judge and Stanton will figure to share right field and DH duty moving forward because that’s the best way to keep both in the lineup. With Judge, you have to live with teams running on him. With Stanton, you have to live with limited range and teams running on him. Clearly, Judge is preferable, even at less than 100%.
My biggest concern (and I assume the Yankees’ biggest concern) is Judge getting caught up in the heat of the moment and unleashing a full effort throw, and blowing out his UCL. Flexor strains are bad news and letting him play through it is risky, even with these low effort throws. This feels like Masahiro Tanaka circa 2015. When it felt like every pitch could be the one that exploded his elbow. I hate this feeling.
Judge started in right field Friday night, DHed Saturday afternoon, and started in right field again Sunday afternoon. Monday was an off-day, so Judge is on an every other day schedule right now. I assume he’ll be back in right field tonight. When will Judge be able to play back-to-back games in right or throw with more effort? I have no idea. The Yankees might not even know. This is the best he and they can do right now.
“He’s a great right fielder,” Boone told Hoch. “So we weigh (the risk) and we make a decision based on how he’s doing and what we think gives us the best chance to win.”
The Yankees were relaying signs again
Ben Rice opened the scoring Sunday with a three-run home run off Max Scherzer (video) and we have to give Judge an assist. Judge was on second base and doing the arm wavy thing the Yankees do when they have the other team’s signs/pitcher’s grip. Rice was up there whaling away too. The Yankees had Scherzer’s pitches and Rice was looking to unload, not serve a single the other way.
That wasn’t the home run. That’s a foul ball earlier in the at-bat. Still, that’s not Rice's A swing. That’s his A++ swing. Cody Bellinger was on first base at the time and later explained he picked up the pitch, presumably by looking into Scherzer’s glove to see his grip, then he relayed it to Judge, who relayed it to Rice. “That is what was happening,” Bellinger told Gary Phillips. Don’t like it? Hide your grip better.
“They were relaying,” Schneider told Hazel Mae. “They're good at it. Major League Baseball knows the Yankees are good when they have something. Maybe I'm the only one that's going to say it publicly. We have to do a better job of making sure we're not giving anything away.”
Schneider is being whiny, but he didn’t accuse the Yankees of doing anything illegal, and as long as they aren’t going full Astros with electronic equipment/algorithms, this is within the rules and classic gamesmanship. I’m still surprised the Yankees are so obvious about it. I keep waiting for a red ass pitcher to throw at someone because they don’t like it (doesn't Scherzer seem like the type?), but no one has yet.
The most newsworthy thing here is Schneider saying MLB is aware the Yankees relay signs this way. That’s good, right? MLB knows what’s up and the Yankees continue to do it, which I take to mean everything is above board. Given how much blowback the league and Rob Manfred specifically received for the Astros stuff, I assume MLB would be on top of the Yankees if this wasn’t within the rules.
Do you think the Yankees ever wave their arms at second base when they don’t have the signs/grips just to distract or unnerve the pitcher? I think that might irritate opponents more than actually having their pitches. Anyway, picking up signs/grips helped the Yankees win a game against the Mariners in July. It helped them win Sunday. Who knows how many other games it helped them win? I'm certain the number is not zero.
Miscellany
Max Fried’s start went from annoying/bad to practically great Sunday: 7 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 4 K (video). The Blue Jays had runners on second and third with no outs in the third. Fried escaped that jam and retired 14 of the final 16 batters he faced, and one of the two baserunners was an infield single. Good outing in the biggest game of the season … For the first time as a big leaguer, Cam Schlittler allowed four runs in a start Friday. The Blue Jays worked him very hard. 24 foul balls among 66 total pitches, including 15 in two-strike counts. Schlittler’s two-strike foul rate was 29.5% going into that game (MLB average is 23.0%). It was 42.9% Friday. It was a bad start all the way around. The Blue Jays didn’t flinch at the curveball and had the fastball timed … Shoutout to Ryan Yarbrough. He did hero’s work sparing the bullpen Friday: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 3 K on 73 pitches. That helped the Yankees win Saturday and Sunday. It was the longest relief appearance by a Yankee since Jhony Brito went 5.1 innings behind an opener on May 15th, 2023 … Tim Hill has not pitched in September. He warmed up a few times in Houston but not at all against the Blue Jays. The Yankees have played righty/platoon heavy lineups, so there haven’t been good matchup opportunities. Still kinda weird though. If Hill’s hurt, it’s not bad enough to go on the IL … 13 walks and five strikeouts in the last 10 games for Judge. Who’s the MVP? The guy opposing teams don't want swinging the bat (Cal Raleigh has 13 walks in his last 25 games) … And finally, the Yankees traded for two lefties who hit righties well at the deadline (Amed Rosario and Austin Slater) and yet they never pinch-hit against lefties. Boone won’t pinch-hit for his catchers or Chisholm, and Jasson Domínguez doesn’t play enough to get pinch-hit for, so Rosario and Slater are cheerleaders. I guess they’ll play whenever the Yankees have a blowout.
Injury updates
I figured Paul Goldschmidt was unavailable when he didn’t replace Rice for defense Saturday. He has a bone bruise in his right knee. It’s the same injury he had last month. A new round of tests checked out okay and Goldschmidt was available Sunday (he replaced Rice for defense late). They’re gonna manage the injury rather than IL him … Not much to update with Gerrit Cole (elbow), who is making progress with his throwing program. Here’s video of Friday’s session. It’s still catch at relatively short distances at this point.
Up next
The Yankees are halfway through this four-series stretch against almost certain AL postseason teams. The Tigers, who have been sneaky mediocre the last few weeks (29-30 since July 1st), are next. Here’s the week ahead:
Tuesday vs. Tigers: RHP Will Warren vs. RHP Casey Mize (7pm ET on YES, TBS)
Wednesday vs. Tigers: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Jack Flaherty (7pm ET on Amazon, TBS)
Thursday vs. Tigers: RHP Cam Schlittler vs. TBA (7pm ET on YES)
Thursday’s TBA could be Tarik Skubal. He lines up to pitch that day on normal rest. I guess the Tigers are mulling over pushing him back to give him extra rest? That decision could depend on their bullpen usage the next two days. The Tigers frequently use openers and bullpen games and all that. If their bullpen is in good shape going into Thursday, then perhaps TBA won’t be Skubal. We’ll see.
Anyway, Gleyber Torres is back in the Bronx for the first time as a visiting player. Torres was on the IL with an oblique issue when the Yankees visited Detroit in April, so these will be his first career games against the Yankees. A divisive player, he was, but also a very productive one. I expect him to get a nice hand before his first at-bat and a tribute video at some point during these three games.
2. Prospect thoughts. There was a fun minor league pennant race the last few days. High-A Hudson Valley lost to Greensboro (Pirates) on Wednesday. At that point, Hudson Valley had to win the final four games against Greensboro to pass them for a postseason spot. The Renegades won Thursday, Friday, and Saturday, then fell short in what was a win or go home game for both teams Sunday. Too bad.
Here are where the four full season affiliates sit as the season winds down:
Triple-A Scranton: 81-54, four games up on postseason spot (12 games left)
Double-A Somerset: 70-62, 5.5 games back of postseason spot (6 games left)
High-A Hudson Valley: 79-50, missed postseason (season over)
Low-A Tampa: 63-63, missed postseason (season over)
The RailRiders have not been to the postseason since 2019 because only two of the 20 International League teams make the postseason these days. Scranton has few actual prospects (OF Spencer Jones, most notably) and a lot of veterans with Triple-A and MLB experience. Hopefully the veterans lead them to the postseason for the first since before the pandemic. Here now are a few thoughts on a few prospects.
Kilby’s impressive pro debut
SS Dax Kilby, this year’s first round pick, had a whale of a pro debut. He hit .353/.457/.441 (159 wRC+) with 16 steals in 17 attempts in 81 plate appearances with Low-A Tampa. More walks (16.0%) than strikeouts (13.6%) too, with a stellar 4.5% swinging strike rate. At 18, Kilby was three years younger than the average Florida State League player. No home runs, but wowie:
Kilby managed 16 100 mph exit velocities on 57 balls in play, though 10 of the 16 were on the ground. The 54.4 GB% is too high. Kilby’s 18 with fewer than 20 pro games under his belt. He’s not a finished product, there’s no need to panic, nothing like that. I’m just pointing out that, with that hard-hit ability, getting Kilby to elevate a bit more figures to be a developmental priority.
Unless the Yankees send him to Double-A Somerset, which would be crazy for a kid who was playing high school ball a few weeks ago, Kilby’s pro debut is over. Tampa's and Hudson Valley's seasons are done. Don’t get too caught up in the slash line. The under-the-hood stuff is more relevant. Kilby showed top flight bat-to-ball ability, hard-hit ability, and plate discipline in his first action as a professional. That’s very exciting.
(Baseball Prospectus (subs. req’d) said Kilby is “already looking like the worst miss of our draft coverage,” meaning they were too low on him. He was outside their top 50 draft prospects.)
ERC, Lagrange atop MiLB K leaderboard
Behind Cam Schlittler, who is one out away from graduating out of prospect status, RHP Carlos Lagrange and RHP Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz are two biggest breakout pitching prospects in the system this season, though I’d argue ERC is not really breaking out and instead doing exactly what was expected given what he showed in 2024. Anyway, here’s the minor league strikeout leaderboard:
1. RHP Jonah Tong, Mets: 179
2. RHP Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, Yankees: 166
3. RHP Carlos Lagrange, Yankees: 163
4. RHP Gage Stanifer, Blue Jays: 157
5. RHP Trey Yesavage, Blue Jays: 156
Tong was called up last month, so, technically, ERC and Lagrange rank 1-2 in strikeouts among current minor leaguers. The last Yankees prospect to lead the minors in strikeouts was Drew Thorpe all the way back in 2023. Hey, if the Yankees want to repeat the Thorpe strategy and trade ERC or Lagrange after he leads the minors in strikeouts for this offseason’s version of Juan Soto, I’m all for it.
Lagrange was terrific in his most recent start, going 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 10 K (video) on 82 pitches. That followed a four-start stretch in which he walked 21 batters in 26.2 innings. Lagrange hit 103.1 mph (!) on the Statcast gun* Friday, which is bonkers velocity period, and especially insane for a starter who has thrown more innings in 2025 (114) than he did from 2022-24 combined (95.2). Sheesh.
* Double-A Statcast data is not public, though Somerset posts velocities and pitch types in the score bug on their home broadcasts, which is better than nothing.
As for ERC, he’s shaken off a rocky three-start stretch with back-to-back strong outings. On Sunday he went 5 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 8 K (video) on 80 pitches. He’s got a 2.38 ERA (2.47 FIP) with 29.5 K% and 9.6 BB% in 140 innings this year. Lance Brozdowski (subs. req’d) had Schlittler (No. 6), Lagrange (No. 9), and ERC (No. 17) in his recent top 40 pitching prospects update. Some interesting stuff on ERC:
His shapes look similar to the mixes of Michael King, Hayden Wesneski, Will Warren, and other Yankee pitching prospects to come through the organization … One theme among this archetype of Yankee arms is that they struggle against left-handed hitters. Clarke Schmidt struggled mightily with this, and Will Warren still struggles with it. Rodriguez-Cruz, so far, has not shown the same weakness. Perhaps it’s a byproduct of command or how developed the depth of his mix is that he can throw a trio of pitches to each handedness of hitter. His results this season in the minors are actually better against left-handed hitters … Rodriguez-Cruz’s mix is basically completely polished at this point. Maybe there’s an angle to add a Clay Holmes-esque downer slider to go along with his bridge slider, but he doesn’t have the lefty issues that this shape usually solves.
The consensus is Lagrange has the higher ceiling but ERC is more likely to remain a starter because he has a wider arsenal and better command. One of my inside baseball pals (not with the Yankees) insisted ERC was the best pitching prospect in the system before the season. That could certainly be the case now depending whether you prefer Lagrange’s sky-high ceiling or ERC’s higher probability.
Either way, the Yankees have both guys, so who ranks higher is not all that important. Lagrange doesn’t have to go on the 40-man roster until next offseason and he has command things to work on. ERC has to go on the 40-man this offseason. As long as he stays healthy, he will almost certainly have made his MLB debut by this point next year, if not thrown enough innings to graduate out of prospect status.
Miscellany
The pitch data nerds (I say that with affection) are getting excited about RHP Ben Hess. He was very good again last time out (5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K (video)) and is running a 33.3 K% and 8.0 BB% in his last 11 starts. Hess looks primed to fully launch in 2026 … SS Roderick Arias has wrapped up his second straight season with Low-A Tampa. This is, uh, not a good trend:
2024: .233/.335/.393 (111 wRC+) with 13 HR, 31.0 K%, 12.3 BB% in 552 PA
2025: .208/.325/.315 (89 wRC+) with 7 HR, 28.8 K%, 13.0 BB% in 465 PA
Arias turns 21 today, so he’s still quite young, but performing worse while repeating the level is always a bad sign. I assume he’ll go to Hudson Valley in 2026, his 40-man evaluation year, though that’s something to think about in a few months … RHP Brendan Beck got roughed up last time out, but he was fantastic in the start before that (7 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 9 K (video)) and he has a 3.52 ERA (3.98 FIP) with 23.0 K% and 6.9 BB% in 120.1 innings this year. The 2021 second rounder threw 34 innings from 2022-24 because of arm injuries, including Tommy John surgery. The stuff is pretty ordinary …
… though his command is good, and he’s willing to challenge hitters. Beck gives me Mitch Spence vibes. He can help a team at the big league level, though he’s unlikely to be anything more than an up/down guy for the Yankees. Beck will be Rule 5 Draft eligible after the season and might find himself in the A’s or Rockies bullpen next year … Here’s a surprise: RHP Jack Cebert, this year’s 15th pick, made his pro debut with Hudson Valley. He struck out 11 and allowed two runs in 6.1 innings across five relief appearances. Cebert is the first Yankees’ pitching prospect to debut the year he was drafted since 2022. Usually these guys get shut down after the draft and go to the pitching lab in Tampa, but Cebert got into game action. Huh … And finally, Baseball America (subs. req’d) published their top 35 Dominican Summer League prospects list last week. It did not include a single Yankee, though LHP Carlos De La Rosa was No. 14. He went to the Giants in the Camilo Doval trade. Still, no prospects in the top 35? Yeesh. At some point I’ll have to write more about how poorly the big money IFA signings since Jasson Domínguez in 2019 have worked out. The Yankees have hit on smaller bonus guys (Lagrange, most notably), but the dudes who signed for millions (Arias, OF Brando Mayea, etc.) have been duds.
3. Arizona Fall League candidates. The 2025 Arizona Fall League rosters will be revealed in two weeks or so. Yankees prospects will play for the Mesa Solar Sox this fall and their park, Hohokam Stadium, does not provide public Statcast. We’re out of luck there. Yankees prospects will be teammates with Athletics, Cubs, Marlins, and Rays prospects. Here are the important AzFL dates:
Monday, Oct. 6th: Opening Day
Saturday, Oct. 11th: Tripleheader day at Kino Sports Complex
Saturday, Oct. 18th: Tripleheader day at Goodyear Park
Saturday, Nov. 8th: Home Run Derby
Sunday, Nov. 9th: Fall Stars Game
Wednesday, Nov. 12th: Final day of the regular season
Thursday, Nov. 13th: Quarterfinals
Friday, Nov. 14th: Semifinals
Saturday, Nov. 15th: Championship Game
(Tripleheader day is cool. All six teams play in the same park and one ticket gets you into all three games. You get to see the entire league in one day.)
MLB opened up AzFL eligibility a few years ago. Previously the AzFL was limited to Double-A and Triple-A players, with one Single-A player per MLB parent club. There were also limits on service time and international players eligible to play winter ball. Now pretty much anyone can go. The Yankees could technically send Aaron Judge to the AzFL, not that they would.
(Several veterans have played rehab games in the AzFL to prepare for the postseason, including Jeff McNeil last year.)
The AzFL is a developmental league and roster spots are finite. Each MLB team can send a maximum of nine players: Four pitchers (one starter and three relievers), three full-time position players (exact positions are negotiated among the clubs), and two taxi squad position players (eligible to play twice a week). Everyone who goes to the AzFL goes for a reason. There are no roster fillers.
Because so many young pitchers are up against their workload limit by the end of the regular season, the AzFL is a very hitter friendly league. The pitching is mostly second and third (and below) tier prospects, or rehabbers coming off an injury. Last year the AzFL average was a .270/.373/.434 batting line and a 5.89 ERA. I’d say that qualifies as hitter friendly.
One thing I’ve learned over the years is predicting AzFL rosters is impossible, and it’s only gotten more difficult since the roster eligibility rules were loosened. Teams send some of the most random minor leaguers to the desert. Despite that, I'm going to take a stab at naming players the Yankees could send to the AzFL. This is a list of candidates (and also dudes I want to write about), not a prediction.
RHP Michael Arias
2025 stats: 3.04 ERA (3.90 FIP) with 27.7 K%, 11.8 BB%, 48.3 GB% (26.2 IP in LoA, HiA, AA)
The forgotten 40-man roster guy. The Yankees got Arias in a cash trade with the Cubs in February and he’s survived every 40-man cut since. The 23-year-old did not make his 2025 debut until June 24th because of an injury, and that 11.8 BB% represents a career low. Arias is a full-time reliever with a knockout changeup and a hard sinker from a lower arm slot. He has an option remaining for next season too, though there are only so many 40-man spots to go around. I wonder if the Yankees will send Arias to the AzFL to a) make up for the time he lost to the injury, and b) evaluate him further before deciding whether to keep him on the 40-man when Rule 5 Draft protection time comes in mid-November. Hmmm.
OF Jace Avina
2025 stats: .252/.359/.422 (131 wRC+) with 11 HR, 25.1 K%, 11.8 BB% (390 PA at LoA, HiA)
The Yankees managed to get value out of the Jake Bauers trade with the Brewers. They sent Bauers to Milwaukee at the 2023 non-tender deadline and received two prospects: Avina and OF Brian Sánchez, who went to the Pirates in the David Bednar trade. Bauers was going to get non-tendered. Getting even the third piece in a trade for a guy like Bednar is a win.
As for Avina, he’s having a fine season and he’s made a lot of progress with his contact issues. This is what we in the business call a good trend:
2022: 34.7 K% and 24.2% swinging strikes
2023: 29.6 K% and 14.8% swinging strikes
2024: 27.2 K% and 16.0% swinging strikes
2025: 25.2 K% and 13.3% swinging strikes
Avina has sacrificed some exit velocity to make more contact, but he can still launch a ball when he really lays into one, and he has defensive value in the corners. This is his 40-man evaluation year, though Avina doesn’t strike me as a candidate to get taken in the Rule 5 Draft. He’s had a good season and he spent some time on the injured list, which is the AzFL candidate template.
RHP Harrison Cohen
2025 stats: 1.90 ERA (3.27 FIP) with 28.6 K%, 13.5 BB%, 45.2 GB% (47.1 IP at AA, AAA)
Cohen was an undrafted free agent signing as a fifth year senior out of George Washington in 2022, and he’s always been a bit interesting because the secondary pitches are good. The four-seamer is short, it’s low-90s with poor under-the-hood metrics, so he throws his three mid-80s non-fastballs (changeup, cutter, slider) a ton. Cohen walks too many for a guy without a big fastball, but there’s definitely big league utility here. He’s the kinda guy who will go up/down and get claimed on waivers multiple times during his three option years.
LHP Allen Facundo
2025 stats: 1.85 ERA (2.85 FIP) with 29.4 K%, 11.1 BB%, 55.8 GB% (39 IP in Rk, LoA)
Facundo was a bit of a sleeper going into last season, then he blew out in May and had UCL surgery. He returned to game action this June, which leads me to believe it was the internal brace procedure and not full Tommy John surgery. Either way, Facundo has been terrific this season and he’s showing livelier stuff with a healthy elbow. The fastball has topped out at 98.4 mph, the slider has a 33.3% whiff rate, and he has a funky Japanese-style hesitation in his delivery (video). Facundo turned 23 last week and needs innings after surgery. He’s reliever-y, but he’s an interesting dude.
LHP Geoffrey Gilbert
2025 stats: 2.59 ERA (2.85 FIP) with 34.1 K%, 11.9 BB%, 44.6 GB% (41.2 IP at HiA, AA)
A random fringe reliever prospect or two make their way to the AzFL every year, and Gilbert is my attempt to figure out who that guy could be in 2025. The stuff doesn’t pop. It’s a low-90s fastball with a slider and a changeup, though Gilbert has pitched well and still has some innings to give after missing most of 2024 with a non-Tommy John elbow surgery.
IF Dylan Jasso
2025 stats: .264/.331/.413 (119 wRC+) with 13 HR, 23.7 K%, 7.5 BB% (507 PA at AA)
Jasso, another undrafted free agent signing (2023), has been one of the top performers in the system this year. It’s contact skills over exit velocity and the defense all around the infield is just okay, so the upside here might be something like a Ty France who can stay at second/third. Not exciting, but guys like that are useful. Jasso has been healthy all year and has a full workload under him, so maybe he doesn’t need the AzFL, though sometimes these second/third tier good performing prospects find themselves in the desert to keep things going and continue to build on that success.
OF Spencer Jones
2025 stats: .272/.361/.577 (154 wRC+) with 33 HR, 35.0 K%, 11.5 BB% (460 PA at AA, AAA)
The Yankees haven’t sent one of their very best prospects to the AzFL since Jasson Domínguez in 2022. I think Jones is a candidate to go this year because a) he missed a month with an intercostal injury, and b) he is having a very strong season (despite a 53 wRC+ and 43.3 K% since Aug. 1st). The Yankees might want to let Jones build on that and make up for the lost month. George Lombard Jr. has stayed healthy all year and has logged a lot of games. He doesn’t need the AzFL. I could see Jones going though.
IF Enmanuel Tejeda
2025 stats: .252/.392/.354 (121 wRC+) with 3 HR, 14.9 K%, 16.6 BB% (181 PA in Rk, LoA)
Continuing with the theme of guys who missed time with injury, Tejeda missed time a bunch of time with injury this year. He made his season debut on July 5th, one year to the day after he blew out his knee when he hit the first base bag awkwardly. Tejeda was my No. 27 prospect before the season and it’s the great at nothing, okay at everything profile that fits best as a bench guy on a good team. Point is though, Tejeda needs to play, and the AzFL is a place to play.
Injured pitchers
The AzFL is loaded with pitchers who missed chunks of the season with injury. RHP Carlos Lagrange was there last year after back trouble limited him to 21 innings during the regular season. RHP Trystan Vrieling was there two years ago after missing the regular season with a broken elbow. Phillies RHP Andrew Painter, arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball, made his return from Tommy John in the AzFL.
RHP Bryce Cunningham, last year’s second round pick, would seem like a prime AzFL candidate. He’s been limited to 54.1 innings this season by a shoulder issue and a second unknown injury (it might’ve been the shoulder again). LHP Henry Lalane has been battling shoulder trouble since last year and he’s made seven starts with tight pitch limits. He’s healthy and pitching now. Will that be the case when the AzFL starts in a month? If yes, Lalane could be there the way Lagrange was last year.
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Comments
Michael Mazzullo
Vople has taken a lot of abuse and heat, but I have to hand it to the young man for playing through a labrum injury and not complaining. They left this kid out to dry. They should shut him down, determine if surgery is needed and let him rehab for next season. What a dipsheet thing to do to him.
Spookie
Honestly, postseason baseball in Fishkill would have been awesome for a local like me.
