RAB Thoughts
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September 19th, 2025: Outfield, Bullpen, No. 3 Starter, Mailbag
🕑 Added 2025-09-19 10:00:11 +0000 UTCThe AL is an argument for the third Wild Card spot and the NL is an argument against it. Without it, the NL races would be over. We’d know exactly who’s going to the postseason already, if not the exact seeding. In the AL though, the Wild Card race would be so much more interesting with only two Wild Card spots. Here are the Wild Card standings (the Astros and Mariners are tied atop the AL West):
1. Yankees: 86-67 (+3 GB)
2. Astros/Mariners: 84-69 (+1 GB)
3. Red Sox: 83-70
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4. Guardians: 81-71 (1.5 GB) (Red Sox have the tiebreaker)
5. Rangers: 79-74 (4 GB)
I understand front offices would not behave the same way with only two Wild Cards, but I don’t like the three Wild Card system, so let me have this. MLB used to have the perfect balance between regular season and postseason, and now a bunch of .500-ish teams that sold at the deadline are in the race in the NL. It was cute when the Tigers did it last year. As an every year thing though? Nope. Teams don’t need any further encouragement when it comes to doing as little as possible to contend.
Anyway, the AL East race is not over yet, but it would take a minor miracle. The Yankees were two games behind the Blue Jays after winning that head-to-head series two weeks ago. The Blue Jays are 7-3 since then. The Yankees would have had to go 9-1 in their 10 games since then just to tie Toronto, and the Blue Jays have the tiebreaker. It is what it is. As far as I’m concerned, the Yankees lost the AL East when they went 1-5 in Rogers Centre in July.
As for the Wild Card race, the Yankees are in good shape to secure the top spot and thus home field advantage. Am I crazy to want the Astros over the Mariners or Red Sox in the Wild Card Series? I know the history, but Houston is without Yordan Alvarez (ankle) and Josh Hader (shoulder), neither of whom is certain to return this season, and Isaac Paredes (hamstring) skipped surgery to rehab his injury, and will try to DH soon. It ain’t great.
Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello are a really good 1-2 punch and the Red Sox’s offense scares me much more than Houston’s right now. The Mariners could be a real headache in a short postseason series. They can actually hit, this isn’t one of those no offense Mariners teams, and once they shrink their pitching staff down to their 8-9 most trusted arms, they could be a handful. On paper, I’d rather take my chances with the Astros over the Mariners and Red Sox. (Or, preferably, Cleveland* if they sneak in somehow.)
* The Guardians just swept the Tigers and are only 3.5 games back. Detroit had a 14-game lead at one point. If they blow that, it would tie the 1978 Yankees for the biggest division comeback in history.
The Yankees continued to whittle their magic number down the last few days and can clinch a postseason berth as soon as Sunday. It’s possible their ticket will be punched by time we meet again. The magic number to clinch a spot in the tournament is …
… which means three Yankees wins and three Guardians losses can put the Yankees in on Sunday. That’s a lot to ask though (the Guardians are in Minnesota for four games this weekend), and if it doesn’t happen, the Yankees will have to wait until at least Tuesday to clinch because both teams have off-days Monday. It’ll happen when it happens, but I hope it’s soon. Let’s now get to today’s post.
(I’m glad I didn’t have to use it, but I had a great photo picked out if the magic number was seven.)
1. Weekday thoughts. If you thought the Yankees were gonna begin this “easy” stretch of the schedule by going to Target Field and handily beating a Twins team that sold very hard at the deadline, then you haven’t followed Aaron Boone’s band of take-your-foot-off-the-gassers long. Monday was not just a loss. It was one of those “this is the first time the Yankees have done this since” losses, such as:
It was the first time the Twins shut out the Yankees since Aug. 11th, 2008, at the Metrodome. Here’s that box score. They played 113 games between Twins’ shutouts, postseason included.
The Yankees tied the franchise record with 30 strikeouts in a two-game span (16 vs. Red Sox on Sunday and 14 on Monday). They did it four times previously, including April 1-2 of this year.
First time the Yankees struck out 11+ times against the opposing starter in back-to-back games since July 3-4, 1992, against Nolan Ryan and Jose Guzman.
The Yankees did win the series, improving them to 127-46 (119-win pace) against the Twins since 2002 (postseason included), but Tuesday’s and to a lesser extent Wednesday’s wins were not as easy as they should have been. Whatever, man. Wins are wins, even if they aren’t pretty. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games as the regular season winds down.
The best outfield in baseball
If you had told me in March that Trent Grisham would hit 33 home runs this season, I would’ve guessed the Yankees would win 100 games. That won’t happen, mostly because the bullpen stinks, but Grisham is indeed up to 33 homers after hitting three the final two days in Minnesota (videos). He’s the first Yankees’ outfielder other than Aaron Judge and Juan Soto to hit 33 homers since Curtis Granderson hit 43 in 2012.
“Honestly, it’s been amazing,” Cody Bellinger told Greg Joyce about Grisham after Wednesday’s game. “Stability from that (leadoff spot). He can take you deep, he’ll take his walks, hits the ball really hard. Kind of solidified that spot, which is a really important spot. He does it with ease. It’s been really fun to watch.”
Bellinger hit his 29th home run Wednesday and could join Grisham in the 33-homer club with a hot finish to the season. Jasson Domínguez had a good game that night too. Judge is Judge. The outfield is the backbone of the offense (the backbone of the team, really), and it is far and away the best outfield in baseball. The outfield’s numbers going into Thursday:
AVG: .277 (1st in MLB; Brewers second at .270)
OBP: .361 (1st in MLB; Mets second at .342)
SLG: .512 (1st in MLB; Red Sox second at .461)
wRC+: 141 (1st in MLB; Cubs second at 121)
HR: 106 (1st in MLB; Angels second with 91)
WAR: +15.2 (1st in MLB; Red Sox second at +13.5)
That is time spent as an outfielder only. It doesn’t include Judge’s (or Giancarlo Stanton’s) time at DH. Of course Judge is boosting those numbers significantly. He’s the best hitter in the world. It’s not all Judge though. He’s taken only 19% of their outfield plate appearances. Bellinger and Grisham have been great, and so too was Stanton when he was playing the outfield. It’s just a great outfield top to bottom.
That +15.2 WAR is the best by an outfield since, uh, last year’s Yankees were at +18.6 WAR. Otherwise only five teams have gotten +15 WAR from their outfield in the last decade: 2016 Red Sox (+15.2 WAR), 2017 Yankees (+16.1 WAR), 2017 Marlins (+15.3 WAR), 2018 Red Sox (+20.1 WAR), and 2023 Braves (+15.3 WAR). Like the 2025 Yankees, those +15 WAR outfields were built around one superstar and an above-average supporting cast. The 2024 Judge/Soto two-superstar outfield is a rarity.
Last year’s Yankees were a two-man army with Judge and Soto getting assistance from the occasional burst by Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Austin Wells, and even Alex Verdugo early in the year. This is still the Judge show, but he has so much more help, and it’s not just Bellinger and Grisham. Ben Rice has been terrific. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is on the verge of a 30/30 season*. Domínguez has hit righties and has done well in his limited recent action. Stanton can still flip a game with one swing.
* Jazz has been swinging awfully hard to get that 30th homer the last few days, eh? He is 3-for-20 since hitting his 29th homer and has clearly been looking to launch since then. Hopefully Jazz runs into his 30th homer soon and settles back down at the plate.
With the bullpen and the back of the rotation being what it is, the Yankees are an offense-first team. That hasn’t always been the case the last few years. They got pretty run prevention-y from 2020-22 or so. They have banged their way into a Wild Card spot and will go only as far as the banging takes them in October. It starts with the outfield. Bellinger, Grisham, and Judge is the core I never knew I needed.
“It’s just a really, really deep team,” Bellinger told Joyce. “We come in here for a purpose. Trying to win every ballgame, and right now we’re playing well and trying to keep it rolling.”
It’s time to try ERC in the bullpen
Monday was the third time in seven days the Yankees got exactly six innings and two runs from their starter, and lost by 7+ runs. It happened back-to-back games against the Tigers last week and then again in the series opener against the Twins. Here are the number of times the Yankees got at least six innings with no more than two runs allowed from their starter, and lost by at least seven runs:
2025: 3 times, all within a week
2017-24: 0 times
2016: 2 times
2012-15: 0 times
2011: 1 time
2009-10: 0 times
The Yankees did it to Masahiro Tanaka twice in 2016 (June 1st vs. Blue Jays and Sept. 2nd vs. Rangers) and Phil Hughes once in 2011 (July 27th vs. Mariners). So three times in a week the Yankees did this very bad thing after doing it three times total from 2009-24. I deserve hazard pay for having to watch this bullpen and write about it. The “Jonathan Albaladejo and Chris Britton might be good” era wasn’t this bad.
“That was trash,” Luke Weaver told Mike Cook after allowing five runs and getting one out Monday. “Felt like I was fighting myself the whole time. Mentally just trying to overcome it with a good mindset and stay within myself. Those two things just weren’t coming together. Felt like I tried to do too much and got on the wrong side of the results. Preparation was strong per usual in my routine, but it didn’t match the intensity out there. Just became tough to predict what I needed to do when I needed to do it.”
Tuesday’s 10-1 lead became a 10-9 win because Cam Schlittler was not good and because the middle of the bullpen wasn’t either. I thought about writing a “maybe Ryan Yarbrough needs high leverage work?” thing and he took that off my plate with a four-run, one-out appearance. Just the idea – “maybe Ryan Yarbrough needs high leverage work?” – tells you where things are with the bullpen. It’s an adventure every night.
“Once (Fernando Cruz) came in and kind of settled things with a big out, and (Yarbrough) getting a six-run cushion and they got the back half of the lineup with lefties, you’re not sure if they’re going to flip it, you don’t really care, you’re just hoping Yarbs can kind of get on a roll like he typically does,” Aaron Boone told Mike Cook after Tuesday’s game. “Just made too many mistakes tonight.”
There are only nine games remaining in the regular season and you only have so many September roster spots now. The Yankees can shake up the bullpen only so much. Yerry De Los Santos did good work as a medium leverage guy, so maybe bring him back? Get around to activating Brent Headrick? Another guy I would consider: Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz. I say this for three reasons:
1. ERC might be one of the 14 most talented pitchers in the organization. That’s really all it boils down to. He can miss bats and get ground balls, and he has a deep enough arsenal to get both righties and lefties out. At this point, all the Yankees can do is throw talent at their problems, and ERC just might be talented enough to succeed in a relief role right now.
2. For workload reasons, ERC has been on an 85-pitch limit the last few times out, and he has maybe 10 innings left to throw this season. Double-A Somerset lost Thursday and got swept in the Division Series, so their season is over. ERC will go up and join Triple-A Scranton for the rest of their season and postseason. He's probably got two starts left. If he has 10-ish innings to give, might as well use them in the big leagues, not in Scranton.
3. He has to go on the 40-man roster after the season anyway. The Yankees have added prospects to the 40-man early and called them in September many times over the years, including Clarke Schmidt during a postseason race in 2020 (they kinda did this with Schlittler, no?), and they would hardly be the only contender to turn to a rookie pitcher(s) in a pennant race this year. Some recent call ups:
Blue Jays: RHP Trey Yesavage
Mets: RHP Nolan McLean, RHP Brandon Sproat, RHP Jonah Tong
Red Sox: LHP Connelly Early, LHP Payton Tolle
Those six guys have a combined 2.84 ERA (2.95 FIP) in 95 innings. That’s +2.7 WAR promoted from within. There can be gold in them thar prospect hills. Ben Hess and Carlos Lagrange don’t have to go on the 40-man yet. There are longer term roster considerations with calling them up. That isn’t the case with ERC. (Jonathan Loáisiga can go on the 60-day IL to open a 40-man spot for ERC.)
With nine games and an off-day to go in the season, ERC might get what, three appearances to show he can be a Wild Card Series option? Clayton Beeter got two games to prove his postseason-worthiness late last year when Jake Cousins went down with a pec injury, which tells us the Yankees are at least open to the possibility of a (very) short September cameo landing you a roster spot in October.
ERC has never pitched in relief, so that’s an adjustment he would have to make. Point is, the bullpen is really bad and somehow getting worse …
Before trade deadline: 4.24 ERA (3.97 FIP) with +1.09 WPA
Since trade deadline: 5.40 ERA (4.21 FIP) with -0.50 WPA
… and there is very little time left to try different things. Other than De Los Santos and Headrick yet again, ERC is the best internal option the Yankees have given his stuff, his command, and his roster situation. I don’t expect the Yankees to do it, but I wish they would. I’d rather they try it and it not work than be left wondering if ERC could’ve helped.
Who wants to be the No. 3 starter in October?
Based on recent performances, no one. Will Warren got blasted for six runs in the first inning Sunday, though he at least battled and got through five innings. Schlittler and Luis Gil couldn’t even do that despite being staked to big leads Tuesday and Wednesday. Schlittler did retire 11 in a row at one point. He also walked five, including three in the fifth inning with a 10-1 lead. Groan.
I am concerned about Gil. The walks are always going to be there. That’s just who he is. The bigger problem is he’s not missing bats. In his last three starts, Gil has struck out seven of the 71 batters he’s faced (9.9%) with a 7.9% swinging strike rate. Here are the season numbers:
2024: 26.8 K% and 11.7% swinging strike rate
2025: 17.9 K% and 9.0% swinging strike rate
The Blake Snell act (walks are okay when you don't allow many hits) only works with a top tier strikeout rate, and Gil doesn’t have it right now. He missed four months with a lat strain, which is an injury known to hamper performance, and the Yankees are being cagey about his velocity dip. Gil pitched well in Boston last weekend (six no-hit innings!), though clearly, he’s a lesser version of who he was last year.
Schlittler and Warren are both roughly 20 innings over their previous career highs, which is not so big of a workload increase that alarm bells are going off, but also not so small of one that we can rule out fatigue. Warren’s made 31 starts. He never made more than 26 prior to this year. It is a long season and perhaps the two rookie starters are feeling it. That could explain the recent dud performances.
The postseason No. 3 starter debate is not one we have to settle right now, and besides, Game 3 will be an all hands on deck game. It may not be Gil vs. Schlittler vs. Warren. It might be Gil starts and Schlittler comes out of the bullpen, or something like that. While we’re here, let’s lay out the rotation for the next few weeks. This is how guys line up right now:
Fri., Sept. 19th at Orioles: Will Warren (normal rest)
Sat., Sept. 20th at Orioles: Carlos Rodón (normal rest)
Sun., Sept. 21st at Orioles: Cam Schlittler (normal rest)
Mon., Sept. 22nd: off-day
Tues., Sept. 23rd vs. White Sox: Luis Gil (one extra day of rest)
Weds., Sept. 24th vs. White Sox: Max Fried (one extra day of rest)
Thurs., Sept. 25th vs. White Sox: Will Warren (one extra day of rest)
Fri., Sept. 26th vs. Orioles: Carlos Rodón (one extra day of rest)
Sat., Sept. 27th vs. Orioles: Cam Schlittler (one extra day of rest)
Sun., Sept. 28th vs. Orioles: Luis Gil (normal rest)
Mon., Sept. 29th: off-day
Tues., Sept. 30th Wild Card Series Game 1: Max Fried (one extra day of rest)
Wed., Oct. 1st Wild Card Series Game 2: Will Warren (one extra day of rest)
Thurs., Oct. 2nd Wild Card Series Game 3: Carlos Rodón (one extra day of rest)
Obviously the Yankees will use one of those off-days to flip Warren and Rodón, and get Rodón lined up for Game 2 of the Wild Card Series. Probably this coming Monday they’ll do it? That would allow Rodón to start Game 2 with extra rest. Wait until next Monday to flip them and Rodón has to start Game 2 on normal rest. That wouldn’t be the end of the world, but if you can give him an extra day going into a postseason spot, you might as well do it.
Unless the Yankees are okay with Gil pitching on short rest, starting Game 162 (as he currently lines up to do) would take him out of play for the Wild Card Series, and I don’t think they’ll do that. Gil has to at least be available for the Wild Card Series. I guess Paul Blackburn will have to wear Game 162? Or Yarbrough in a way that doesn’t take him out of play for the Wild Card Series? I dunno. Worry about it later.
Gil, Schlittler, and Warren were all pretty bad last time out and now it looks like the Yankees have no good options for Game 3. In a week, it could look like they have two or three good options. I think it should be Schlittler, he’s the best combination of stuff and command between the three guys, but Gil can dominate (in theory) and Warren can give you a random great start. There’s a case for all of them in Game 3.
Who starts Game 3 is only one piece of the puzzle and potentially a small one, because that’s a win or go home game, and whoever starts won’t have a long leash. I could see Warren being shelved in the Wild Card Series, though I would be surprised if it goes the full three games and Gil and Schlittler don’t factor in somehow. Just win the series in two games. That is the best answer to the Game 3 starter question.
“They’re each going to have a few more (starts) here, so hopefully they put us in a tough situation based on them performing well,” Boone told Cook about the No. 3 starter race.
Miscellany
Max Fried was ridiculously good Thursday. It was his best start of the season, and he’s had a lot of really great starts this year: 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 B, 13 K (video) on 87 pitches. The 13 strikeouts tie his career high and he smashed his previous career high with 28 swings and misses (on 45 swings!). His previous best was 21 whiffs against the Red Sox last June 4th. Here are the swing and miss pitches:
Whiffs on seven different pitch types, including multiple whiffs on five different pitch types. Fried missed bats in the zone and got chases out of the zone. He was outstanding. That little hiccup around the blister feels like a long time ago now … Anthony Volpe returned to the lineup Tuesday and went 2-for-4 with a double and a walk. It was the first time he reached base three times in a game since going 4-for-5 in that hideous loss to the Marlins on Aug. 1st. Volpe sat Wednesday and played Thursday (José Caballero was at third base). Boone continues to call the shortstop situation day-to-day. We’ll see … Devin Williams is doing that thing where he looks great and reliable again. Five straight scoreless appearances with a 36.8 K%. Will it last this time? I sure hope so. The bullpen needs High Lev Dev in the worst way … The Yankees stole seven bases in three games in Minnesota, including four Wednesday night. They’re up to 55 steals since the trade deadline, five more than any other team. Their 130 stolen bases this year are easily their most since 2011, when Brett Gardner (49), Granderson (25), and Eduardo Núñez (22) led them to 149 steals. Home runs will get you to heaven, but it is nice to have a legit speed element for the first time in forever. (Caballero is going to make a brutal out on the bases in the postseason, isn’t he?)
Injury updates
Judge (flexor) played right field Monday and Tuesday. It was the first time he played back-to-back days in the field since the injury, which is a good sign. He no longer needs an every other day schedule to recover. Judge DHed Wednesday and was back in the outfield Thursday. He’s still throwing at less than full effort, but back-to-back days is a step in the right direction … Turns out Domínguez was unavailable for a few days with a tooth infection. I had one a few weeks ago and it hurt so much I could barely focus on anything else, so I can understand not playing. Anyway, they started the root canal in Boston and will finish it when the Yankees get home. Domínguez has since returned to action. (Root canals are a two-part procedure. I learned that the hard way in May.)
Up next
The final three road games of the regular season and maybe of 2025. The Yankees could get home field advantage in the Wild Card Series and lose. I hope not, but it could happen, and I’m not saying that as a doomer. That’s just baseball. Here’s the weekend ahead:
Friday at Orioles: RHP Will Warren vs. LHP Trevor Rogers (7pm ET on YES)
Saturday at Orioles: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (7pm ET on YES, MLBN)
Sunday at Orioles: RHP Cam Schlittler vs. RHP Kyle Bradish (1:30pm ET on YES)
Monday: off-day
Rogers has been really good! He has a 1.43 ERA (2.43 FIP) in 100.2 innings and that’s good enough to rank sixth among pitchers with +5.6 bWAR. He’s 17th with +3.6 fWAR. There are reasons to believe in his success, though Rogers does have big time homer rate regression coming (0.27 HR/9 and 3.1% HR/FB). I hope it comes this weekend and not next year.
2. Rapid fire thoughts. A trade! Or the completion of a trade, really. The Yankees sent OF Marshall Toole to the Rays as the player to be named later in the José Caballero/Everson Pereira swap, they announced the other day. Neither Baseball America (subs. req’d) nor MLB Pipeline had Toole as a top 30 prospect in the system even after it was thinned out by all the deadline trades. I mentioned Toole’s great season a few weeks ago. That’s about all there is to say about that (Pereira has a 28 wRC+ and 35.9 K% with the Rays) … And finally, Rob Manfred confirmed the Yankees and Blue Jays will not go to London next year. There was still a small possibility it would happen when MLB released the 2026 schedule a few weeks ago, but no more. There’s a stadium conflict with a soccer match and also FOX doesn’t have the broadcasting bandwidth because the World Cup will take place at the same time. So much for that. Maybe the Yankees will go overseas after the 2026-27 lockout.
Mailbag Questions of the Week
Cory asks: I feel like it's not getting any attention that Judge is 3 IBBs away from the all time AL record?
It’s not! I had no idea he was so close to the AL record. He's only one away now too. Aaron Judge’s 32 intentional walks are 10 more than any other player and the most since Prince Fielder’s 32 IBBs in 2011. The all-time record is a ridiculous 120 IBBs back when teams lost their marbles with Barry Bonds. The top 17 IBB totals belong to NL players and it’s not guys who hit eighth in front of the pitcher. It’s Bonds, Willie Mays, Albert Pujols, etc.
Here is the AL’s single-season IBB leaderboard:
1. John Olerud, 1993 Blue Jays: 33
2. Ted Williams, 1957 Red Sox: 33
3. Miguel Cabrera, 2010 Tigers: 32
4. George Brett, 1985 Royals: 32
5. Aaron Judge, 2025 Yankees: 32 and counting
It’s possible Judge will not get IBBed again the rest of the (regular) season. The Yankees only have games with non-contenders remaining. There’s no reason for the Orioles and White Sox to not pitch to Judge. Wins and losses don’t matter to them. So, unless they completely wimp out*, Judge could get pitched to the rest of the season. I’m in favor of that. Let’s do that.
* The O’s intentionally walked Judge last night, so what do I know?
Michael asks: Trent Grisham has 33 home runs this season but only 9 doubles. This struck me as unusual. Turns out it is of course very rare. Can you guess who the last player was to have 30+ HR and fewer than 10 doubles in a season?
That is so few doubles! I did not realize Grisham was under 10 doubles until YES talked about it the other night. I would have guessed a slow-footed catcher like Sal Perez or even old pal Gary Sánchez was the last guy with 30 homers and fewer than 10 doubles. Anyway, I looked it up so you folks don’t have to, and a) it is very rare, and b) the last guy to do it is a Yankee, and he did it pretty recently:
That’s it. Only six times in history. I’m mad at myself for not guessing Stanton. That one seems obvious in hindsight. Aaron Judge has some silly homer/double splits (363 homers and 202 doubles in his career), but nothing like Grisham this year. Grisham’s split is enormous even when factoring in Yankee Stadium being a great home run park and a terrible park for every other kind of hit.
(I can’t be the only person here who caught Grisham saying “Who needs doubles? Fuck ‘em!” after his home run Tuesday.)
Ray asks: Might the decision on signing Bellinger or Grisham come down to price? The Yankees can afford to sign both but they won’t.
Yes, for sure. I don’t think it’s simple as “the Yankees will sign whichever guy costs less,” but if one is willing to sign for significantly less than the other, you have to factor that into the decision. Cody Bellinger is a Scott Boras client, and after the year he’s had, Bellinger will tout him as a $400M player or something. It could also come down to the qualifying offer. If the Yankees make Trent Grisham the qualifying offer (Bellinger is not eligible for one) and he accepts it, then that might be it for Bellinger in pinstripes. For sure, the asking prices will be a factor, but I don’t think it will be the biggest factor.
Daniel asks: Is there a notable decrease in Volpe’s swing speed pre/post shoulder injury? Wondering if the “swing as hard as you can” approach disappeared around that date.
Nope. Not only did Anthony Volpe’s bat speed not suffer after he hurt his shoulder, it actually increased in the summer months. He got hurt on May 4th, and July and August were his hardest swinging months of the season:
Volpe did get a cortisone shot during the All-Star break, which perhaps explains the increased swing speed in July and August. There was no noticeable dip after the injury though. Volpe has been swinging as hard as ever all season. I absolutely believe the injury could be affecting his offense, but if it is, it isn’t showing up in his bat speed.
Andrew asks: Seriously, what’s up with Boone not being willing to use righty pinch hitters? Of course, it ended up working out, but at the time I didn’t understand on Friday night leaving McMahon in to face the left Wilson with a runner at second when both Slater and Goldschmidt were available off the bench. And shouldn’t he be willing to pinch hitters Wells more? Is this an FO directive?
I don’t think it’s a front office thing. I just don’t think Aaron Boone trusts Amed Rosario defensively, so in close games he’s inclined to leave Ryan McMahon (or Jazz Chisholm Jr.) in, and pinch-hitting for one of your two catchers isn't something many managers do. Austin Slater hasn’t exactly impressed in his limited playing time either. Rosario and Slater have pinch-hit five times with the Yankees. Here’s a recap:
July 28th vs. Rays: Rosario pinch-hit for Jasson Domínguez against lefty Garrett Cleavinger with the bases empty and one out in the eighth inning. The Yankees were down 4-2. Rosario singled but was stranded. He stayed in to play right field (Cody Bellinger shifted to left so Rosario could play Yankee Stadium’s small right field).
Aug. 3rd at Marlins: Slater pinch-hit for Domínguez against lefty Josh Simpson with the bases empty and no outs in the seventh (Jazz homered as the previous batter). The Yankees were down 6-3. Slater struck out swinging and stayed in the game to play left field.
Aug. 6th at Rangers: Rosario pinch-hit for McMahon against lefty Robert Garcia in the seventh. The score was tied 2-2. Rosario grounded out. The next batter, Paul Goldschmidt, hit a go-ahead home run. José Caballero took over at third base in the next inning, so Rosario didn’t stay in to play the field. Boone went to the prevent defense once the Yankees had the lead.
Aug. 8th vs. Astros: Rosario pinch-hit for Domínguez against lefty Bennett Sousa leading off the seventh inning of a 2-2 game. He flew out and stayed in to play right field (Bellinger moved to left again). Rosario got an at-bat against Josh Hader in the tenth inning and flew out.
Sept. 10th vs. Tigers: Rosario pinch-hit for McMahon against lefty Tyler Holton leading off the sixth. The Yankees were down 2-0. Rosario singled, then was erased on a double play. He stayed in to play third base. Detroit blew the game open soon thereafter, so Rosario stayed in to finish the game and took an at-bat against a righty later on.
Boone won’t pinch-hit with the righties when the Yankees have the lead because the starters are the best defenders. Even when there’s a chance to blow the game open, Boone opts for defense, and plays to protect the lead. I get it even though I’m frustrated by it at times. You can play for a big inning sometimes, especially with this bullpen. They need all the run support they can get. The front office recognized the need for righty bats, got them, and Boone just doesn’t use them all that much. It is what it is.
(It’s not just the righties. There was a chance to pinch-hit Ben Rice for Goldschmidt with two on and no outs in the seventh inning last night, but Boone let Goldschmidt face the righty because the Yankees were already up 3-0, and he wanted the better defender at first base. Goldy doubled in a run anyway.)
Bob asks: With the continuing hitting woes of Austin Wells I was surprised and disappointed when Brian Cashman traded both Rafael Flores and Jesus Rodriguez. I thought either could be a platoon partner as soon as next year and Rodriguez has been a .300 hitter and Flores has huge power. Did I miss something or is Cashman desperate to get to the playoffs?
Flores was the headliner in the David Bednar trade. The Pirates called him up Tuesday and he’s 1-for-3 with a double and a walk as a big leaguer. Here’s his first MLB hit. Interestingly, the Pirates played him at first base, not catcher. Rodriguez was part of the Camilo Doval trade. He’s performed just about as well in Triple-A with the Giants (121 wRC+) as he did with the Yankees (130 wRC+). No call up for him yet though.
I was surprised the Yankees traded both Flores and Rodriguez, especially after trading Carlos Narváez in the offseason. All three seemed like perfect righty hitting complements to Wells. I think it boils down to a) the Yankees badly needed bullpen help and traded them for controllable late-inning arms, and b) they don’t mind two lefty hitting catchers. And I guess c) is they really believe in Ben Rice behind the plate.
The .272 OBP is terrible, though Wells is a really good defender (who saw that coming? other than the Yankees?) and he has 21 home runs, which ain’t nothing. The two lefty catchers thing is clunky though. Ideally, the Yankees would bring in a veteran righty hitting backup in the offseason, and shift Rice to first base full-time. J.C. Escarra can continue to ride the shuttle as the No. 3 on the depth chart.
Alessandro asks: I was reading your paragraph on the Yankees checking in on Skenes at the deadline and the recurring theme of "the team that gets the star usually wins the trade." Can you think of any trades that go against this? The only two that come to mind for me are the Chris Archer trade and the Bartolo Colon to the Expos deals.
Colon is probably the best example and that’s the kinda trade that never happens anymore. Baseball America had Cliff Lee and Brandon Phillips as top 30-ish prospects in the game at the time (to say nothing of Grady Sizemore) and Bartolo had 1.5 years of control, not something like 3.5 years. These days teams will fight you tooth and nail over their No. 10 prospect for 1.5 years of a really good player. Two global top 30 guys? Forget it.
The first Juan Soto trade would qualify if the Nationals were any good. CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, and James Wood are foundational pieces, but Washington is still very bad. And it’s not like the Padres regret their end of the deal. Soto was very good for them and helped get them to the NLCS in 2022. On a WAR basis, the Nationals won that trade big time. They’re also 62-91 this year, so are they really winners?
Here is a far from complete list of recent star for prospects trades in which the team that got the prospects came out ahead, or can at least argue they did:
Zack Greinke for Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress, and Jake Odorizzi. Greinke was great and helped get the Brewers to the postseason in 2011, but Cain and Escobar became starting up-the-middle players on a World Series winner, and Odorizzi was traded for Wade Davis.
A.J. Pierzynski for Boof Bonser, Francisco Liriano, and Joe Nathan. I wouldn’t say Pierzynski was a “star," but he hit .312/.360/.464 (112 wRC+) with +3.6 WAR in the previous season, and catchers who do that don’t grow on trees.
Justin Upton for Max Fried and others. The Padres got one All-Star season from Upton and the Braves got the ace of their most recent World Series winner.
Rental Carlos Beltrán for Zack Wheeler. Wheeler didn’t fully blossom until he left the Mets as a free agent though.
Erik Bedard for Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, and others.
James Shields for Fernando Tatis Jr.
Some of these are stretching the definition of star. Pierzynski, late career Beltrán and Shields, etc. That kinda proves the point though. Rarely does a team regret trading for a legit star. Miguel Cabrera, Josh Donaldson, Paul Goldschmidt, Chris Sale, Trea Turner, and Justin Verlander were all traded for prospect packages that were highly regarded, and the team that got the star was still the clear winner.
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
MikeD
Pretty sure the Yankees have some perverse goal of having one of their home-grown catchers on every MLB team. I could be wrong.
Sam Forman
Jazz abandoning any plate discipline to hit his 30th reminds me of Soriano doing the same thing trying to hit his 40th (and coming up short) in 2002 and 2003...
