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September 23rd, 2025: Chisholm, Stanton, Rice, Rodón, Awards
🕑 Added 2025-09-23 10:00:11 +0000 UTCUPDATE: It's convoluted, but the Yankees can clinch a postseason spot tonight with a win, per MLB. A win tonight gets the Yankees to 89 wins, and because the Guardians and Tigers play this week and the Red Sox and Tigers play this weekend, it's not possible for all three of those teams to get to 90 wins and finish ahead of the Yankees. So, the magic number is not actually three. Win tonight, and they're in.
ORIGINAL POST: What a tremendous weekend of baseball. Most of the summer I was worried this last week would be relatively lame because so many teams appeared locked into their postseason fate. Instead, we have races galore, including races that looked over weeks ago. Just to recap:
The Tigers had a 14-game lead on July 8th. The Guardians were 15.5 back on that date. Detroit’s lead is down to one (!) game. They’ll play three games in Cleveland starting tonight. Fun!
The Reds have tied the Mets for the third Wild Card spot. Cincinnati has the tiebreaker, so they’re in right now and the Mets are out. The Mets had been in a postseason spot since April 4th.
The Mariners swept the Astros in Houston. They’re four games up in the AL West when you include the tiebreaker. The Astros are on the outside of the postseason bracket looking in.
The Guardians have won 15 of their last 17 games. If they do actually win the AL Central, it will be both the biggest comeback and the biggest blown division lead in history. The 1978 Yankees have the biggest comeback at 14 games. The biggest blown lead in 13 games by the 1951 Dodgers*. One of the Astros, Guardians, Mariners, or Tigers will miss the postseason unless the Red Sox (or Yankees) collapse.
* The Yankees came back from 14 games down in 1978, though the Red Sox never led the AL East by more than 10 games that year. The Yankees were in fourth place when they were 14 games back.
This week the Reds get the Pirates and a Brewers team with nothing to play for. They've already clinched the NL Central and a Wild Card Series bye. The Mets get the Cubs and Marlins, both on the road. If the Reds manage to win the third Wild Card spot and the Mets miss the postseason, the schadenfreude will be delightful. There are a lot of Mets fans in my family and in my orbit. I usually have no ill will toward the Mets, but lmao.
As for the Yankees, they are three games behind the Blue Jays in the AL East (tiebreaker included) with six games to play. The Yankees get the White Sox and Orioles this week. The Blue Jays get the Red Sox and Rays at home. Here’s what needs to happen for the Yankees to win the AL East:
Blue Jays go 6-0: Blue Jays win AL East
Blue Jays go 5-1: Blue Jays win AL East
Blue Jays go 4-2: Blue Jays win AL East
Blue Jays go 3-3: Yankees must go 6-0
Blue Jays go 2-4: Yankees must go 5-1
Blue Jays go 1-5: Yankees must go 4-2
Blue Jays go 0-6: Yankees must go 3-3
That Blue Jays/Red Sox series is a tricky one. If you want the Yankees to win the AL East, you have to root for Boston, but Boston winning would also draw them closer for the top Wild Card spot. As long as the Yankees handle their business and win their games, it’ll all work out. Beat the White Sox and hopefully the Red Sox make the Blue Jays earn it. Just make the Blue Jays sweat a little, you know?
“We’ve got a chance to still take the division here, and we have some important games coming up,” Ben Rice told Gary Phillips over the weekend. “Every game’s going to be more important than the last one, so we just gotta stay on top of it Keep the foot on the gas.”
Cleveland’s hot streak means the lead on a postseason spot is smaller than I thought it would be at this time last week. The Yankees are four games up on a postseason berth with six games to play. The magic number to secure a spot in the tournament is down to …
The magic number for the top Wild Card spot and thus home field advantage in the Wild Card Series is four. Short of winning the AL East, I think the best case scenario is the Red Sox slipping into the third Wild Card spot and either the Astros or Guardians (or Tigers) moving into the second spot. I know Cleveland’s red hot right now, but come on. Look at that team. I’ll take my chances with them eight days a week and twice on Sundays.
With any luck, the Yankees will get the top Wild Card spot clinched by the end of the White Sox series, and we’ll have clarity about the AL East race. If there’s still a legit chance to win the division, great. Go for it. If not, then it would be good to know that, so the Yankees can take their foot off the gas a bit and rest players this weekend, and audition others for postseason roles. Let’s now get to today’s post.
1. Weekend thoughts. The Yankees went 7-3 on their 10-game road trip and are 5-2 seven games into this “easy” stretch of the schedule to close out the season. At 88-68, the Yankees are a season high 20 games over .500, and their +144 runs differential is second best in baseball. It’s 39 runs better than the next best AL team. I pegged the Yankees as an 87-win team on Opening Day. I sold them short. One week to go. Finish strong and head into October riding high. Here are a few thoughts on the last few days.
Milestone weekend
I was really, really hoping Aaron Judge would hit a home run in the first inning Sunday. It would have been his 50th of the year, a nice round number, and also the 48th first inning homer of the season for the Yankees. That would have broken a tie with the 2023 Braves and set a new all-time record. Alas and alack, Judge struck out, so we’re still waiting for No. 50 and the first inning homer record.
There was plenty of history this weekend though. Friday night Jazz Chisholm Jr. swatted his 30th home run of the season (video) and officially joined the 30/30 club. He’s the third Yankee to do it and it’s the fourth time it’s been done in franchise history:
2025 Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 31 HR and 30 SB (he also went deep Sunday)
2003 Alfonso Soriano: 38 HR and 35 SB
2002 Alfonso Soriano: 39 HR and 41 SB
1975 Bobby Bonds: 32 HR and 30 SB
“I wish it would have come with a win today, but it’s great,” Chisholm told Bryan Hoch about joining the 30/30 club. “… It’s kind of upsetting not to get the W tonight to come closer to the Blue Jays. That’s all we’re thinking about right now, winning the division.”
The Yankees have been around forever, so four 30/30 seasons may not seem like many, but only the Braves (five) and Mets (six) have more. Ken Williams had the first 30/30 season in 1922, then no one did it again until Willie Mays in 1956. It wasn’t until Barry Bonds, Joe Carter, and Eric Davis in the late 1980s that 30/30 really became a thing. 30/30 seasons are uncommon. There have been only 76 all-time. Jazz is having a really special season. 40/40 might’ve been in play if not for the oblique injury.
“30/30 invokes a lot of things, and it certainly lines up with his skill set,” Aaron Boone told Hoch. “I think that he’s moving the needle and getting better as a player.”
One night after Chisholm joined the 30/30 club, Giancarlo Stanton joined the 450-homer club (video). It was one of those home runs only Stanton can hit. 84 mph sweeper down and away and out of zone, Big G just touched it, and it carried over the high wall in right. Statcast says it would have been a homer in 15 of the 30 parks too. Off the bat, I hoped it would bloop in. Instead, over the wall it went.
“It’s a cool round number,” Stanton told Hoch. “It’s cool to see the names I’m catching and tying, and going above. Most important, it helped us win. A great day all around.”
The fan who caught the ball was a kid named Everett. He was wearing a STANTON 27 shirt. Stanton met with Everett and his family after the game, and traded a signed bat and some other stuff for the milestone baseball even though Everett said he wanted nothing in return. The Yankees posted a video of their meeting. Pretty cool. As for 450 homers, Stanton got there in the fifth fewest games all-time:
1. Mark McGwire: 1,524
2. Babe Ruth: 1,585
3. Alex Rodriguez: 1,684
4. Harmon Killebrew: 1,713
5. Giancarlo Stanton: 1,719
Injuries limited Stanton to only 505 of 870 possible regular season games from 2019-24 (58%), plus the 2020 season was shortened by the pandemic. Considering the guy has averaged 42 home runs per 162 games in his career, it’s not crazy to think Stanton would have already been in the 500-homer club with moderately better health. Play, say, 670 of those 870 games instead of 505, and he might be in already.
As it stands, Big G still has a chance to get to 500 home runs. He has two years left on his contract. Two years and six games to hit another 50. Even with all the injuries, the guy has averaged 24 home runs the last three years. When he’s in the lineup, he hits the ball out of the ballpark. The question is will Stanton stay healthy enough to get to 500? The power’s still there. I hope the health will be, for many reasons.
“I’m a lot of swings away from 500,” Stanton told Hoch. “Of course you think about it. You understand that if you bear down, that I’m capable of doing it. It’s just one at a time, and that’s all I can do.”
We’re still waiting for Judge to hit his 50th home run, but Chisholm got to 30/30 on Friday and Stanton hit No. 450 on Saturday. And, mostly importantly, the Yankees took three of four in Baltimore. I look forward to tracking Jazz’s 40/40 chase next year and Stanton’s 500-homer chase in a year or two. And, you know, whatever Judge does, because I’m sure it’ll be something historic.
Tío Ben
With or without Juan Soto, part of the plan this season was the young hitters taking steps forward, and it hasn’t really happened, right? Anthony Volpe and Austin Wells haven’t hit well. Jasson Domínguez has had his moments, though he hasn’t forced the Yankees to keep him in the lineup, hence only four starts in the last 20 games. Call it like it is: Domínguez, Volpe, and Wells have underwhelmed.
Then there’s Ben Rice, who was not assured a spot on the Opening Day roster until Stanton’s elbows began to act up. Rice had four hits Sunday, including the game-tying single in the sixth and the go-ahead grand slam in the tenth (video). Tío Ben is up to .252/.335/.488 (129 wRC+) with 24 home runs this year, including .262/.354/.484 (135 wRC+) against righties. The 19.4 K% and 8.6% swinging strike rate are very strong too. For a dude with power, Rice doesn’t whiff much.
Rice was a plate discipline darling in the minors. Then he showed up to Spring Training noticeably bigger this year, and has been smashing the ball since. Add increased strength to a guy who has a plan at the plate and knows what pitches to swing at, and you get this:
“I think we’re seeing the emergence of a true middle-of-the-order bat with power,” Boone told Hoch after Sunday’s game. “He’s proving himself as a really formidable hitter in this league.”
Three of Rice’s last six homers have come against lefties. Not premium lefties (Ian Seymour, Shinnosuke Ogasawara, Keegan Akin), but still lefties, and I’ll take that as a sign of progress for a young lefty hitter with a career .194/.268/.424 (90 wRC+) slash line against lefties. I’m not asking Rice to be a Cody Bellinger type who hits lefties well. Just be average against lefties. Average would be a huge win.
I’ve been burned by young Yankees’ hitters before. Wells has backslid with his plate discipline. Gleyber Torres peaked early and plateaued. We’re still waiting for Volpe to launch. Rice has the core underlying skills that make a great hitter though. He knows the zone. He makes contact. He hits the ball hard and he hits it in the air. It’s about as stable an offensive skill set as you can have. Rice has been awesome this year and I’m very excited about his future, even while acknowledging the defensive questions.
Rodón changes it up
The Orioles are not good. Their lineup is even worse than I realized. Dylan Carlson? Jeremiah Jackson? I guess selling at the deadline will do that, but sheesh. Max Fried carved the O’s up Thursday, Will Warren was okay Friday, and Carlos Rodón dominated Saturday: 7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 8 K (video) on 96 pitches. He retired 15 of 16 at one point. Last nine starts: 2.30 ERA (3.40 FIP) and 6.1 innings per.
Jackson Holliday and Gunnar Henderson were the only lefties in Baltimore’s lineup Saturday and they hit first and third, respectively. That left a lane of righties in the 4-9 lineup spots. Rodón has really widened his arsenal over the last 12-14 months, and Saturday he threw more changeups than any other pitch. It was the first time the four-seamer or slider was not his most used pitch since a sinker-heavy season debut in 2018.
“The way Ben called that game, it set up the changeup well,” Rodón told Hoch. “The outer lane was kind of open with the fastball, so I just tried to tunnel that with the changeup. I was fortunate to have that today. It was a good game overall. I’m happy with the win.”
Those are Rodón’s four-seamers and changeups against Baltimore’s righties. Up with the fastball, down and away with the changeup. Perfect. The O’s whiffed with 12 of their 21 swings against the changeup (57%) and the five balls in play were 77.6 mph, 69.7 mph, 69.6 mph, 56.0 mph, and 27.6 mph. They also whiffed eight times on 11 swings against the slider (73%). Good gravy.
“It was probably as good as I’ve seen it,” Boone told Greg Joyce about Rodón’s changeup. “He used it a lot, but then had everything else going off of it. You see the pitchability, the pitcher on display now. The sinker, the four-seam, little more life at the end of the game when he knows he’s towards the end and he reaches back a little bit for more. But the changeup and slider were both really good for him tonight. Just another strong outing in what’s been a really strong year for him.”
The Orioles are a bad team playing out the string, so we have to be careful not to make too much of one game, but man was Rodón sharp. The way he’s reinvented himself and bounced back from that miserable 2023 season is so impressive. He went from being a liability to a rock, and the best No. 2 starter the Yankees have had since … Masahiro Tanaka during Luis Severino’s heyday? Great year, Carlos.
Miscellany
Cam Schlittler bounced back from his rough start in Minnesota nicely Sunday: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HR (video) on 89 pitches. The homer he gave up to Samuel Basallo was on curveball that stayed up, though it wasn’t a total hanger that spun middle-middle:
I keep saying Schlittler is my Game 3 starter and he still is. If the Yankees feel differently, okay, but I can’t imagine Schlittler won’t factor into the Wild Card Series somehow … One run allowed in 11.1 innings for the bullpen in Baltimore. Still too many walks (seven), but anything that can be taken as a step in the right direction for this group is welcome … And finally, Chisholm has pulled even with Judge in the HR+SB race. Earlier this year Chisholm joked he would beat Judge in HR+SB this season – “You know how they say OPS is on-base plus slug? This is home runs plus stolen bases,” he told Hoch in April – and he’s up to 31 homers and 30 steals. Judge is at 49 homers and 12 steals, so they’re tied with 61 HR+SB. Frankly, this race is tied only because Chisholm missed a month. Jazz would be winning with ease at full health, and that says more about his great season than it does Judge slacking off. The HR+SB race is going down to the wire.
Injury updates
Nothing to pass along. Triple-A Scranton’s regular season ended Sunday and they will face Jacksonville (Marlins) in the best-of-three International League Championship Series beginning tonight. That means Brent Headrick (forearm) still has actual games to pitch in while the Yankees use his rehab assignment to maintain roster flexibility.
Up next
The final week of the regular season is here. Two last series against the very bad White Sox and slightly less bad Orioles before the postseason begins. Here’s what’s coming between now and Friday’s post:
Tuesday vs. ChiSox: RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Shane Smith (7pm ET on YES)
Wednesday vs. ChiSox: LHP Max Fried vs. TBA (7pm ET on YES)
Thursday vs. ChiSox: TBA vs. RHP Davis Martin (1pm ET on YES)
A few notes on the upcoming rotation. First, over the weekend Matt Blake told Randy Miller the Yankees were considering starting Fried on normal rest on Tuesday. That would have lined him up to start Game 162 on normal rest in case it was a “we need to win to go to the postseason” situation. The Yankees are comfortable enough with their position to not do that. Works for me. Fried will start Wednesday on extra rest and lines up to start Wild Card Series Game 1 on extra next Tuesday. (Next Tuesday already? Next Tuesday.)
Second, Gil starting Tuesday lines him up to pitch Game 162 on normal rest. That would take him out of play for the Wild Card Series unless the Yankees are comfortable with Gil pitching on short rest, and I can’t imagine they would do that given the lat strain. Methinks Game 162 will be TBA up until Sunday morning. If the Yankees need to win that game, they’ll start Gil. If they don’t, I guess Paul Blackburn and Ryan Yarbrough will tag team it (or the Yankees will call someone up?), and keep Gil in play for the Wild Card Series.
Third, I assume Thursday’s TBA will be Rodón on normal rest. Warren lines up to start that day, though at some point the Yankees need to rearrange things to get Rodón behind Fried so he can start Wild Card Series Game 2. Doing it this week would be easiest, since it would give Rodón an extra day leading into Game 2. They could wait to do it next week, which would put Rodón on normal rest for Game 2. That’s not a big deal, but if you can give him extra rest going into that game, might as well do it.
(Boone said everyone is fine and Thursday’s TBA is just to keep options open. Who really knows with this team though.)
And fourth, Warren will presumably start sometime this week. If not Thursday, then this coming weekend against the O’s. Whenever he makes his next start, Warren will become the first rookie to make 33 starts since Nick Blackburn with the 2008 Twins. He’ll be only the seventh rookie this century to make 33 starts, joining Blackburn, Joe Blanton, Gustavo Chacin, Josh Fogg, Jeff Francis, and CC Sabathia. Only one other Yankees’ rookie has made as many as 33 starts: Stan Bahnsen in 1968. The best ability is availability, and Warren's had it this season.
2. The Yankees and 2025’s awards. The regular season ends in five days and so does the BBWAA’s voting for the season’s major awards. Ballots are due before the start of the postseason. MLB’s major awards – MVP, Cy Young, Rookie and Manager of the Year – are regular season awards. The votes will have already been cast when the first pitch of the Wild Card Series is thrown next Tuesday.
The Yankees have had major award winners each of the last three years: Aaron Judge (2022 and 2024 MVP), Gerrit Cole (2023 Cy Young), and Luis Gil (2024 Rookie of the Year). This year’s MVP race is pretty competitive. It’s not certain that streak will extend to four years. Let’s dig into the awards races and see how the Yankees stack up, shall we? We shall.
Most Valuable Player
If nothing else, Cal Raleigh will become the first player other than Judge and Shohei Ohtani to get a first place AL MVP vote since José Abreu won it in 2020. Judge and Ohtani have received every first place vote the last four years. Figure the two Seattle writers will vote for Raleigh. Will he be able to peel off enough other first place votes to win the award? Maybe!
Raleigh is having an incredible, historic season, and we don’t need to act like it would be a travesty if he wins MVP. He’s probably gonna hit 60 home runs (he has 58). The 60-homer catcher on a team that is about to win its first division title since 2001 is a worthy MVP. Raleigh has already set the single-season home run record for a catcher, a switch-hitter, and a Mariner. Five homers in the last six games would give him the AL’s single-season record too.
The thing is, Judge is doing historic stuff too, but we’ve almost become numb to it because he does stuff like this every year. Judge has a 209 OPS+. It's a top 30 offensive season all-time, and it’s top 15 among players other than Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth, and Ted Williams. Judge has an 11-point lead over Jacob Wilson in the batting race. Here are the players to hit 50 home runs and win a batting title:
1956 Mickey Mantle: .353 AVG and 52 HR
1938 Jimmie Foxx: .349 AVG and 50 HR
That’s it. Also, Foxx and Mantle only led their leagues in AVG. Judge is 11 points up on the MLB batting title. Assuming he gets that 50th home run, he’s on track to become the first player ever to hit 50 homers and lead baseball in AVG. This is not a run of the mill great season, nor should Judge be “punished” for it being the norm for him. Raleigh’s not the only AL player doing historic stuff in 2025.
Here’s another thing: Historic doesn’t automatically equal MVP. Sal Perez didn’t win MVP when he set the catcher home run record in 2021. Mantle didn’t win MVP when he set the switch-hitter home run record in 1961. I’ve seen a few “if Raleigh gets to 60 homers, he’s the MVP” takes, but is he not the MVP at 58 or 59 homers? Does the round number really make that much of a difference?
Statistically, the AL MVP race boils down to whether Raleigh’s defensive value outweighs Judge’s edge at the plate. Clearly, Judge is the superior hitter, even with Raleigh out-homering him. I’m not sure anyone will argue that. Here’s the head-to-head comparison. Everything here is advantage Judge except homers:
AVG: .326 vs. .247 (Wilson is second with a .315 AVG)
OBP: .451 vs. .360 (Juan Soto is second with a .399 OBP)
SLG: .672 vs. .589 (Ohtani is second with a .620 SLG)
wRC: 199 vs. 161 (Ohtani is second with a 172 wRC+)
HR: 58 vs. 49
K%: 24.1% vs. 26.4%
BB%: 17.9% vs. 14.0%
Clearly, Judge is the superior hitter, and clearly, Raleigh is the superior defensive player. He’s a very good catcher who plays a ton. Raleigh leads the AL in innings caught and has DHed about 40% less often than Judge (why shouldn’t injuries factor into MVP races?). A very good defensive catcher who plays this much and hits 60-ish homers is an insanely great and valuable player. What a year for Raleigh, really.
FanGraphs WAR, which includes framing, has Judge with a +9.2 to +8.8 advantage. The 0.4 WAR gap is nothing. WAR is not precise enough to consider 0.4 wins significant. The Baseball Prospectus crew has cooked up the most in-depth catching stats available, and they have Judge with a +9.0 WAR to +7.3 WAR edge. Goodness, that’s huge. Do MVP voters look at BP’s WAR? Probably not, no.
The perception of Raleigh is elite defense, though it’s really more like very good defense. Similarly, the perception of Judge these days seems to be poor defense, but you know what? That’s not the case this year. He’s at +3 DRS and +2 OAA in right field. That won’t win him a Gold Glove, but it’s not like Judge is late career Bobby Abreu around out there. Offense is easily measured. Defense, not so much.
Raleigh is definitely ahead in the narrative race. He’s setting home run records and he’s on a team that will win its division, and end its 2.5-decade long division title drought. The Yankees are one game better than the Mariners in the standings, and they mopped the floor with them head-to-head (5-1 and outscored them 40-23), but that won’t matter. The narrative is definitely in Raleigh’s favor.
Right now, my guess is Raleigh will win MVP in a very close vote. Will that change over the next week? I guess it could, though it seems more likely Raleigh continues to add to his home run total and pulls away from Judge than it does Judge does something that narrows the gap. Both guys have make their MVP cases already. Now they're just stat-padding.
Maybe it’s because Judge has two MVPs already, but I’m not sweating this year’s race too much. I hope Judge wins, and if he does win, he’ll join a select club with three MVPs. But if Raleigh wins, I won’t lose sleep over it. The 60-homer catcher on a first place team is a perfectly reasonable MVP pick. This is the first time in a while the AL MVP race is an actual race. Judge and Ohtani have dominated the voting the last few years.
(Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Trent Grisham are all candidates to get down ballot MVP votes, I'd say. Maybe even Max Fried and Carlos Rodón.)
Cy Young
When Cole was going for the Cy Young in 2023, I mentioned several times that Baseball Reference WAR is the single best Cy Young predictor, and that’s still true. Including Chris Sale and Tarik Skubal last year, 14 of the 18 pitchers to lead their league in bWAR the last nine years won the Cy Young, and two others finished second in the voting. So, here is the AL pitching bWAR leaderboard:
1. Tarik Skubal: +6.5 WAR
2. Hunter Brown: +6.2 WAR
3. Trevor Rogers: +6.0 WAR
4. Garrett Crochet: +5.6 WAR
5. Carlos Rodón: +4.7 WAR
…
11. Max Fried: +4.1 WAR
It feels like a two-man race between Skubal and Crochet, though Brown is right there with them, and so is Rogers, apparently. (He’s only thrown 106.2 innings. He won’t win). Fried’s mid-summer stumble cost him a chance to make a real run at the Cy Young. He’s a classic “gets some fourth and fifth place votes on the five-name ballot” guy, but isn’t someone who is a serious candidate to win.
bWAR has some funky adjustments for defense and opponent, and I assume those are the reason Rodón is out-bWAR-ing Fried despite throwing one more inning with a higher ERA (3.04 vs. 2.92), ERA+ (134 vs. 140), and FIP (3.76 vs. 3.12), and lower fWAR (3.2 vs. 4.5). Rodón does have the xERA (3.30 vs. 3.49) advantage though. Like Fried, Rodón could get some fourth and fifth place votes, and that’s it.
Rookie of the Year
The Yankees and Reds both went 82-80 in 2023. When that happens, the tiebreaker for draft purposes is the previous year’s record. The Reds (62-100) were much worse than the Yankees (99-63) in 2022, so the Reds were a spot higher in the draft lottery. Cincinnati was the big winner on lottery day. They moved up from the No. 15 pick to the No. 2 pick, and used it on Chase Burns, who made his MLB debut against the Yankees a few weeks back.
If the Yankees had lost one more game in 2023, or the Reds had won one more game, the Yankees would have been in the No. 15 slot and moved up to the No. 2 pick, which would not have been pushed back 10 spots for luxury tax reasons. Lottery picks (the top six picks) are protected from luxury tax penalties. And if that had happened, we could have been watching Nick Kurtz mash taters alongside Judge & Co. the last few weeks. Talk about a “what if,” eh? One game in 2023 changed everything.
Of course, who knows if the Yankees would have even taken Kurtz with the No. 2 pick? He still might have landed with the Athletics with the No. 4 pick. Anyway, Kurtz is hitting .291/.384/.613 (168 wRC+) with 33 homers this season. He’ll win Rookie of the Year unanimously. Wilson and Roman Anthony seem like solid bets to round out the top three finalists. Here are the AL rookie WAR leaders:
1. Nick Kurtz: +4.2 WAR
2. Jacob Wilson: +3.3 WAR
3. Roman Anthony: + 2.7 WAR
4. Carlos Narváez: +2.6 WAR
5. Will Warren: +2.2 WAR
…
21. Cam Schlittler: +1.1 WAR
…
31. Jasson Domínguez: +0.7 WAR
I could have sworn the BBWAA voted to expand the Rookie of the Year ballot from three names to five, but it doesn’t look like that happened. Maybe it was just something that was discussed but not actually voted on. I dunno. Memory’s a bit foggy. If it is only three names, it’s hard to see one of those Yankees’ rookies getting even a third place vote. Kurtz, Wilson, and Anthony figure to appear on every ballot.
Manager of the Year
Manager of the Year is very subjective and difficult to predict. Dan Wilson (Mariners) might be the favorite right now given Seattle’s surge, unless of course the Guardians (Stephen Vogt) actually win in the AL Central, or even just get a Wild Card Spot. John Schneider (Blue Jays) has to be in the running as well. There is always some fawning over Alex Cora (Red Sox) too.
Why can’t Aaron Boone win? I’m not saying he deserves it, but you can make the argument, especially if the Yankees do manage to win the AL East. You don’t have to try hard to build the narrative:
The Yankees lost Juan Soto to free agency.
They lost Gerrit Cole to Tommy John surgery in Spring Training.
Reigning AL Rookie of the Year Luis Gil missed four months.
The bullpen has been terrible and they’re winning anyway.
The Yankees will beat the projections by a few wins.
I don’t think Boone will win or even finish in the top three of the voting. I just think it’s easier to build a case for him this year than it has been the last few seasons. Eight of the 15 AL managers got Manager of the Year votes last year. Odds are Boone will get some this year. Possibly more than he has in the past.
Comeback Player of the Year
The Yankees don’t have a Comeback Player of the Year candidate, do they? Maybe Paul Goldschmidt? I would say Grisham is having a breakout season, not a comeback season. The Yankees don’t have any contenders for this award. I have to think it’ll go to Jacob deGrom, though Bo Bichette and George Springer have good arguments too.
Gold Gloves
Well, we don’t have to spend much time on Anthony Volpe’s Gold Glove worthiness this year. He leads his league in errors (19) and his advanced numbers went into the tank (+2 DRS and -8 OAA) this year. Volpe failed both the eye test and the numbers test this year. The statistical component, which makes up 25% of the vote, isn’t in his favor, and I don’t see the coaches and managers voting for him.
Anyway, Gold Glove eligibility is needlessly complicated. Look at this:
- All pitchers must have pitched in at least 138 innings by his team’s 138th game;
- A catcher must have played in at least half of his team’s games by his team’s 138th game (a minimum of 69 games);
- All infielders and outfielders must have played in the field for at least 698 total innings through his team’s 138th game: this equates to playing in the field for approximately 7.5 innings per game in approximately 67% of his team’s games by his team’s 138th game; this ensures that only full-time players are considered;
Jazz Chisholm Jr. does not qualify at second base. I have him at 650 second base innings through 138 team games because of the oblique injury and the time he spent at third base. He’s at +1 DRS and +8 OAA at second and could have at least been a Gold Glove finalist, but alas and alack, he’s not eligible.
Fried is a three-time Gold Glover and he leads all pitchers with +9 DRS. No one else is over +6. Fried is also second among pitchers with four errors. My guess is he’ll be at least a Gold Glove finalist, and it’s more likely than not that he’ll win given his reputation, the eye test, and advanced numbers. (Don’t sleep on Tim Hill. He’s at +4 DRS, a top 15 mark among all pitchers despite being a reliever.)
Statcast has Austin Wells at +10 runs on defense, fifth best among AL catchers, and it’s all framing. He’s at +10 runs framing and +0 runs (average) at blocking and throwing. Raleigh is at +7 runs defensively, though he is the reigning Platinum Glove winner. I bet he’ll be one of the three finalists. Wells will then have to beat out one of Narváez, Dillon Dingler, and Alejandro Kirk to be a finalist. I don’t see it happening.
Grisham’s had a down year defensively and center field in the AL is insane anyway with Ceddanne Rafaela and Julio Rodríguez. No third Gold Glove for Trent. Judge’s defense actually rates pretty well this year, though I have him at 689.1 innings through 138 team games, so he doesn’t qualify for a Gold Glove. All the DH time cost him. For shame. Maybe Goldschmidt gets some Gold Glove love? He has enough innings to qualify.
Bellinger has to be a candidate for the utility Gold Glove. The eligibility rules are fuzzy, but he’s played 524.2 innings in left field, 416 innings in right, 300.1 innings in center, and 26.2 innings at first base. DJ LeMahieu and Ha-Seong Kim won utility Gold Gloves by hopping around the infield, so I assume Bellinger can win it for bouncing around the outfield (plus he’s played some first base).
Eyeballing the defensive stats leaderboard, these guys look like Bellinger’s biggest competition for the utility Gold Glove:
Javier Báez, Tigers: 300 innings at short and center
José Caballero, Rays/Yankees: 110 innings at second, short, third, and right
Ernie Clement, Blue Jays: 150 innings at second, short, and third
Mauricio Dubón, Astros: 140 innings at second, short, third, and left
Max Schuemann, Athletics: 120 innings at second, short, and third, plus outfield time
Dubón won the utility Gold Glove in 2023 and was a finalist last year. Figure he will be again this year. Báez has the narrative and the defensive numbers in his favor. Clement’s a third baseman who played second and short when injuries popped up. Bellinger is more of a true utility guy. He’s in a “play me where you need me today” role, not a “this guy’s hurt, so you go here” role. Does that matter? Probably not.
Fried and Bellinger seem like the Yankees’ best bets at Gold Gloves this season. Goldschmidt and Wells could be in the mix at their positions. That’s likely it, though who really knows with Gold Gloves. They are the award with the weirdest results. Remember when Soto was a finalist last year? Turns out only six AL players even qualified for the right field Gold Glove.
(There’s a team Gold Glove now. The Yankees won’t win that.)
Silver Sluggers
Judge will win his fifth career Silver Slugger. The Yankees won’t sweep the outfield Silver Sluggers, but it’s not completely insane to have the conversation. Here are the top AL outfielders, offensively:
1. Aaron Judge: 199 wRC+
2. George Springer: 162 wRC+
3. Byron Buxton: 135 wRC+
4. Trent Grisham: 129 wRC+
5. Julio Rodríguez: 125 wRC+
6. Cody Bellinger: 124 wRC+
Springer has more games at DH (77) than in the outfield (53), so maybe he's not eligible for an outfield Silver Slugger? In that case, a second Yankee would very well win a Silver Slugger. Bellinger and Grisham should at least be among the finalists, and there is a utility Silver Slugger too. In fact, Bellinger won it in 2023, though he played a lot of center and first base for the Cubs that year. This year it’s almost all outfield. If he’s eligible, Bellinger has to win the utility Silver Slugger. No other AL player moves around this much and hits this well.
I don’t know what the Silver Slugger eligibility criteria is, and if Chisholm didn’t play enough second base to qualify, that would be a damn shame. He’s been far and away the best offensive second baseman in the AL this year. Jazz leads the position with a 127 wRC+. Next best is old pal Gleyber Torres with a 118 wRC+. Chisholm also leads the position in homers and steals. He’ll win as long as he’s eligible.
That’s about it for Silver Slugger candidates. Giancarlo Stanton hasn’t played enough and Ben Rice won’t beat out Vlad Guerrero Jr. at first base if he’s even eligible at the position. There is a team Silver Slugger now and the Yankees won it last year (who knew?). They have to be considered the favorites to win it again this year. Their AL ranks:
AVG: .250 (6th; Blue Jays lead with .267)
OBP: .330 (2nd; Blue Jays lead with .334)
SLG: .454 (1st; Athletics are second with .432)
wRC+: 117 (1st; Blue Jays and Mariners are second with 112)
HR: 263 (1st; Mariners are second with 230)
R/G: 5.23 (1st; Blue Jays are second with 4.92)
If the Yankees don’t win the team Silver Slugger, it will be a travesty. (No it won’t. No one cares.)
Miscellany
No Yankee has a case for the Mariano Rivera Award as the league’s top reliever. I assume Aroldis Chapman will get that one. The Mariano Rivera Award is MLB’s award. The BBWAA will have its own Reliever of the Year award beginning next season (I voted in favor of it). Two awards for the league’s best reliever might be confusing, but we’ll manage … Judge is a lock for the All-MLB First Team, which is not separated by league. It’s one joint team for AL and NL. Chisholm should make at least the Second Team, I would think. Bellinger, Fried, Grisham, and Rodón are candidates to show up on the Second Team too … And finally, Judge will probably win his third Hank Aaron Award (2022 and 2024) as the league’s top hitter, but who knows. Maybe they give it to Raleigh. I recommend not sweating that one.
3. Rapid fire thoughts. Jazz Chisholm Jr. told Gary Phillips he’s had extension talks with the Yankees, including a few weeks back when he was playing third base. “Nothing substantial” is how he described it. Jazz also said he would be open to taking a discount. “If they come close to the number, yeah, for sure,” he said. The Yankees still have Chisholm, who will turn 28 in February, through next season. He has an injury history, which would be baked into the contract, and it’s not like he’s a speed guy who needs his legs to contribute. He’ll still have his power once his speed slips. We’ll dig deeper into a Jazz extension once the offseason begins, though it’s worth exploring. I’m inclined to wait and let next year play out, but, after Chisholm and Bo Bichette this winter, it’ll be another few years before an above-average middle infielder hits free agency. Locking up Jazz now would address a long-term roster need.
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
Bob from Manalapan
Don't think any NL player had a better BA than Mantle in '56 when he had 52 HR
DocBob
Remember when Chapman left the Yankees before the season ended? I do.
