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September 26th, 2025: Postseason, Judge, Rotation, Mailbag
🕑 Added 2025-09-26 10:00:13 +0000 UTCEarlier this week I said I hoped we would have clarity about the AL East race by the end of the White Sox series, and clarity we have. The Yankees erased a five-game deficit in the last 10 days and are tied with the Blue Jays atop the AL East. They’re both 91-68, though Toronto has the tiebreaker, so the Yankees must win one more game than them this weekend to win the division. The Yankees get the Orioles. The Blue Jays get the Rays.
Here’s what needs to happen to win the AL East:
Blue Jays go 3-0: Blue Jays win AL East
Blue Jays go 2-1: Yankees must go 3-0
Blue Jays go 1-2: Yankees must go 2-1
Blue Jays go 0-3: Yankees must go 1-2
I hate the mathematical tiebreaker so much. Not because the Yankees lost it to the Blue Jays. What idiot decided to replace win or go home Game 163s with math? MLB and the MLBPA agreed to it so they could squeeze in more postseason games and make more money. That’s all it is. We could’ve been barreling toward Yankees/Blue Jays or Guardians/Tigers or Mets/Reds Game 163s. Or all three!
Anyway, the AL East title comes with a Wild Card series bye. It’s official. The AL East winner can finish with no worse than the league’s second best record, and isn’t the No. 2 seed better than the No. 1 seed? The No. 1 seed gets the winner of the Blue Jays/Yankees vs. Red Sox Wild Card Series. The No. 2 seed gets the winner of the Guardians/Tigers/Astros Wild Card Series. I’d rather be the No. 2 seed.
For now, the Yankees have clinched at least the top Wild Card spot. Their first postseason game, whether it’s Game 1 of the Wild Card Series on Tuesday or Game 1 of the ALDS next Saturday, will be at Yankee Stadium. There was a stretch earlier this year where a home postseason game wasn’t assured. Now it is. I hope we don’t see it until next weekend. If it’s the Wild Card Series next week, so be it.
The baseball in general has been very good lately. The Tigers are in a full blown collapse, the race for the third NL Wild Card spot* looks like it will go down to Game 162, and the Yankees and Blue Jays are neck and neck. Two division titles and three postseason berths remain up for grabs heading into the final weekend. Fun fun fun. Here now is today’s post.
* The race for the third NL Wild Card spot is exciting as long as you don’t actually watch the Diamondbacks and Reds play their hideous brands of .500-ish baseball. The Mets can at least score runs.
1. Weekday thoughts. Thursday’s forecast did not look great and I was worried about a potential makeup game Monday. That’s the last thing anyone wanted, including MLB. With the AL East race being what it is, Monday’s makeup game could have decided the division and a Wild Card series bye. The Blue Jays may have had to watch not only to see if they won the division, but if they had to play Tuesday. That they were able to play an uninterrupted nine innings Thursday was a minor miracle. Five straight wins and 11 wins in the last 14 games. Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.
Postseason bound
Tuesday was the perfect postseason clincher. The Yankees jumped ahead early, sleepwalked through the middle of the game, then rallied late because a bunch of dudes you didn’t expect to contribute contributed. If that’s not this team and this season distilled down into nine innings, I don’t know what is. The Yankees are again postseason bound. A division title is within reach too.
“This is the beginning,” José Caballero told Bryan Hoch after his walk-off single clinched a spot in October. “We’re going for everything man. We’re going for the trophy.”
This is the fourth time in eight years the Yankees clinched a postseason spot on a walk-off. There was Aaron Hicks’ double in 2018, Aaron Judge’s infield single in 2021, Josh Donaldson’s single in 2022, and now there’s Caballero’s single in 2025 (videos). Caballero’s improbable single, I’d say, given what led up to it. To recap the ninth inning:
Anthony Volpe singled to start the inning. He's 9-for-28 (.321) since his cortisone shot.
Austin Wells saw seven pitches and poked a two-strike single to right against a lefty.
Trent Grisham banged into a first pitch 4-6-3 double play. That was deflating.
Judge was intentionally walked for an AL record 34th time this season.
Cody Bellinger worked a seven-pitch walk, long enough for the pitcher to airmail a ball to the backstop and allow Volpe to score the game-tying run.
Caballero fell behind in the count 1-2, fouled away four two-strike pitches, then dumped the postseason-clinching single to center.
I’m not sure Michael A. Taylor really had a chance to catch Caballero’s single (Statcast has it at 15% catch probably), but it looked like he did, and he should have at least dove for the ball. If it falls in, the game’s over, so you have to at least try to catch it, right? That was a veteran player on a bad team not wanting to work overtime during the last week of the season. I respect it, fellow Michael.
Two players – the 8-9 hitters – started the game-winning rally after being the subject of so much consternation this year. Then Caballero, who did not start the game and was in the other dugout on trade deadline day, fouled away pitch after pitch to stay alive, and won the game. Volpe, Wells, and Caballero are as unlikely a collection of heroes as the Yankees have, really, and they won the game.
“It’s amazing. It’s the best feeling I ever had,” Caballero told Hoch. “I knew we were going to clinch the postseason, but I didn’t know it was going to be this way.”
There is no dominant team in the AL this year. The Yankees are as talented as any team in the league and can absolutely go on a deep postseason run. They can definitely score with any team out there. They can pitch with any team on their best days too. I’m a big “get in and you can win” guy and the Yankees are in now. I want the AL East, but Step 1 was just getting in, and the Yankees are in. Onward.
Judge’s (latest) pursuit of history
Why are the 100-loss White Sox intentionally walking Judge? I guess I can respect playing to win every game, but come on man. I want to watch the guy hit! (Also, let your young pitchers face great hitters when you’re out of the race. It’s a good learning experience.) The White Sox intentionally walked Judge four times in three games. Here is the IBB leaderboard:
1. Aaron Judge: 36
2. Dodgers: 33
3. Guardians: 29
4. Mets: 28
5. Mariners: 26
Judge’s 36 IBBs are more than any other team and they’re the most by any player since Albert Pujols had 38 in 2010. They’re also the new AL single-season record. The previous AL record was 33 by Ted Williams (1957) and John Olerud (1993). José Ramírez, who is literally the only dangerous hitter in Cleveland’s lineup, is second with 22 IBBs. Judge is lapping the field.
IBBs are only so interesting though. The real history Judge is chasing right now is the batting title, which is pretty much the only individual accomplishment he doesn’t have at this point. He’s led the league in homers, RBI, walks (and strikeouts), OBP, SLG, OPS+, wRC+, total bases, bWAR, fWAR, you name it. He just needs a batting title to complete the set. Here is the batting race:
1. Aaron Judge: .330
2. Jacob Wilson: .313
3. Bo Bichette: .311
4. Trea Turner: .305
5. Jeremy Peña: .304
Given the AL East race, the Yankees can’t sit Judge this weekend. I’m sure the Yankees would love to give him one day completely off his feet, but they can’t. He’ll walk a bunch, so let’s call it nine at-bats the rest of the way. An 0-for-9 takes Judge down to .325. Wilson will need to go 9-for-9 to pass Judge and win the batting title. It’s not in the bag, but it’s kinda in the bag.
Judge hit his 50th and 51st home runs Wednesday (video). I was starting to go through withdrawals. He’d hit only one homer in his previous eight games. Judge, Mark McGwire, Babe Ruth, and Sammy Sosa are the only players with four 50-homer seasons and Judge is the only player to do that within his first 10 seasons. He’s one of only seven players with back-to-back 50-homer seasons:
2024-25 Aaron Judge
2024-25 Shohei Ohtani
2001-02 Alex Rodriguez
1998-2001 Sammy Sosa
1997-98 Ken Griffey Jr.
1996-99 Mark McGwire
1920-21 and 1927-28 Babe Ruth
50 friggin’ home runs, man. The Yankees had four 50-homer seasons from 1929-2016, and now this guy’s done it four times in the last nine years. It’s easy to get spoiled because players are so outrageously good these days, but don’t lose sight of how rare and special this is. We may never see a hitter like this again. Here now are the most home runs by a batting champion:
1. 1956 Mickey Mantle: 52 HR and .353 AVG (Triple Crown year)
2. 1938 Jimmie Foxx: 50 HR and .349 AVG
3. 1934 Lou Gehrig: 49 HR and .363 AVG (Triple Crown year)
4. 1966 Frank Robinson: 49 HR and .316 AVG (Triple Crown year)
5. 1933 Jimmie Foxx: 48 HR and .356 AVG (Triple Crown year)
I made a mistake when I wrote about this Tuesday: Mantle did lead MLB in batting average in 1956, not just the AL (Foxx only led the AL in 1938). Judge won’t become the first player to hit 50 home runs and win the MLB batting title. He’ll merely become the second, assuming he does it. Look at those names though! Winning a batting title with this many home runs is inner circle Hall of Fame stuff.
“I can’t. If you sit back and admire it, you’re going to stop your momentum,” Judge told Hoch when asked if he ever takes a moment to appreciate what he’s doing. “There’s a lot of work that needs to be done. Hopefully I have a long career here and we do some special things. We can talk about it at the end.”
It’s ironic that the year Judge (possibly) wins the batting title, he’ll miss the Triple Crown because he won’t have the homers or RBI. Stupid Cal Raleigh. Judge missed a Triple Crown by five AVG points in 2022 and 10 AVG points last year. This year he won’t have the homers or RBI. Go figure. (Judge won’t catch Raleigh. He’s at 51 HR and 109 RBI. Raleigh had 60 HR and 125 RBI going into Thursday.)
It’s also ironic that Judge hit a bunch of home runs but didn’t win MVP in 2017 because someone had a higher AVG, and now he might not win MVP this year despite (possibly) winning the MLB batting title because someone hit a bunch of home runs. It is what it is. Judge is again doing just preposterous, historic stuff on a near nightly basis. I did not know hitters could be this good until he showed up.
“The consistency is incredible,” Max Fried told Hoch after Wednesday’s game. “Every game that he plays, everyone is giving their best stuff to him. Every single day. The consistency and discipline that he’s able to have, not taking an at-bat off and making sure that he’s doing everything that he can, his ability to lock in like that, it’s extremely impressive.”
Rotation machinations
The Yankees did indeed use Monday’s off-day to flip Carlos Rodón and Will Warren, which lines Rodón up to start Game 2 of the Wild Card series on extra rest. It’ll be Fried in Game 1 and Rodón in Game 2, both with an extra day. Beyond that, we don’t know, and I’m not sure the Yankees do right now. Warren said he hasn’t been told anything about his postseason role, but he’s ready to pitch in relief if that’s what it is.
“I just want to win,” Warren told Gary Phillips. “I’m confident wherever I end up.”
Luis Gil got good results Tuesday (6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 3 K, 1 HR on 89 pitches) but it was another low whiff outing. Only three (!) misses on 38 swings, or a microscopic 8% whiff rate, and he’s struck out only 10 of 95 batters in his last four starts. Going into Thursday, 89 pitchers had thrown at least 20 innings in September. This is not where you want to be on these leaderboards:
Strikeout Rate in September (min. 20 IP)
89. Mitchell Parker: 9.9%
88. Luis Gil: 10.5%
87. Miles Mikolas: 11.6%
Swinging Strike Rate in September (min. 20 IP)
89. Miles Mikolas: 4.6%
88. Luis Gil: 6.7%
87. Randy Vásquez: 7.0%
Gil’s allowed two runs or fewer in eight of his 10 starts! He’s not missing bats, but he’s not getting blasted either (though Colson Montgomery’s homer Tuesday was a bomb). A pitcher who walks this many batters and also allows this many balls in play makes me nervous though, especially when paired with a defense prone to dopey mistakes. (See: The ball that wasn’t caught immediately before Montgomery’s homer.)
“I do think that is something that, when you look at it, like, is this sustainable? I think it’s probably not. The surface level ERA is probably a little bit lucky,” Matt Blake told Chris Kirschner (subs. req’d) this week. “I don’t think he’s a 5 ERA guy, but he has pitched to a lot of traffic. He does have an instinct to make big pitches when the stakes are higher. I think that plays into it a little bit. But is that a recipe you want to live on? I don’t think so.”
Gil is listed as Sunday’s starter. I thought the Yankees would TBA that one until they knew the implications of that game, but it is Gil. Unless they pitch him on short rest in the Wild Card Series, something I don’t think they would do after the lat strain, he’ll be out of action that series. Then again, the Yankees could always scratch Gil and start someone else Sunday. We’ll see. For now, I don’t feel great about what I’ve seen from him lately.
Fried was terrific again Wednesday (7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 7 K on 107 pitches) and he finished his first regular season as a Yankee with a 2.86 ERA (3.07 FIP) in a career high 195.1 innings. Very strong peripherals as well (23.6 K%, 6.4 BB%, 52.4 GB%). It all works out to +4.8 fWAR and +4.4 bWAR. Hands down, the best free agent pitcher signing of the offseason. (Maybe the best signing period?)
More importantly, we finally got the Fried/Rice battery Wednesday. It only took 158 games. Aaron Boone said he wanted left/right lineup balance against the White Sox's bullpen game that night, though he also acknowledged Ben Rice could catch Fried in the postseason, and he wanted to pair them together at some point before then. You don’t want the first time they’re matched up together to be in the postseason, you know?
"It was really good to be able to work together and get the feel of a game flow and have him catch me in a game,” Fried told Phillips about pitching to Rice. “So if something happens where we need to pair up in the playoffs, we have some familiarity."
Rodón, who has thrown to Rice three times this year, went 6 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR on 82 pitches Thursday. He finishes the season with a 3.09 ERA (3.79 FIP) in the same 195.1 innings as Fried (Fried made one fewer start though). Good peripherals too: 25.7 K%, 9.3 BB%, and 43.5 GB%. He also cut his home run rate from 1.59 HR/9 last year to 1.01 HR/9 this year. I know I’ve said it a bunch this year, but what a turnaround for Carlos since 2023. He went from unreliable if not despised by the fan base to absolute stud.
"It's kind of hard to think about now because we've got some pretty important games coming up," Rodón said Thursday when asked to evaluate his season (video). "It was good, and just glad I was able to go out there and post every five, six days, and compete and try to win every game."
The Yankees used Monday’s off-day to line up Fried and Rodón for Games 1 and 2 of the Wild Card Series because that’s what they had to do. The Game 3 starter remains up in the air, but it won’t be Gil if he does indeed start Sunday. I am very much hoping we can table this discussion for another week because the Yankees win the AL East and get the bye. That sounds like a plan.
Miscellany
If you had told me before the season that someone other than Judge would hit 34 homers, I wonder how many guesses it would have taken before I got to Trent Grisham. In order, I would have guessed Jazz Chisholm Jr., Cody Bellinger, Giancarlo Stanton, and then I guess Austin Wells? Maybe Jasson Domínguez? Or Paul Goldschmidt under the assumption he discovered the Fountain of Youth? Grisham hit his 34th – 34th! – Wednesday night. Incredible, man. Getting Juan Soto as a throw-in in the Grisham trade was such a great move … Rice’s last 13 games: 18-for-44 (.409) with seven doubles, a triple, a home run, and only four strikeouts. 90 mph exit velocity on 15 of his last 18 balls in play. Tío Ben is blistering everything right now … Stanton, on the other hand, is 9-for-51 (.176) with 29 strikeouts in his last 15 games, and that includes Thursday’s bases-clearing double. He’s hitting .159/.234/.348 (56 wRC+) with a 44.9 K% since I wrote about how good he’s been. Axisa Jinx in full effect. Need Rice to keep this going and October G to show up soon … Speaking of jinxes, I will point out the bullpen has been really good the last few games: 3.16 ERA (3.45 FIP) in 42.2 innings since those back-to-back meltdowns against the Tigers. The bullpen is not lacking talent. There are multiple dudes back there with legit late-inning stuff. They just have to be better, and they have been lately … And finally, Domínguez definitely should have pinch-hit for Amed Rosario with the go-ahead run on base against righty Grant Taylor in the eighth inning Tuesday, especially since Rosario was removed for defense after the inning anyway. Rosario has a 72 wRC+ against righties this year and a 79 wRC+ against righties the last three years. It all worked out in the end, but “don’t let Rosario face righties in a big spot” is Manager 101 stuff.
Injury updates and roster notes
Oswaldo Cabrera (ankle) made an appearance in the YES booth Tuesday. Here’s the video. He said his rehab is going well and he’s even started taking ground balls, though he won’t return this season. Not a surprise, but now it’s official. Also, Cabrera said he’s spending his time at The Hot Corner. That’s the far end of the dugout where all the bench players hang out. They even have a sign:
Rosario started it and it’s basically a cheering squad. The Hot Corner provides energy and positivity throughout the game. “I’m so happy for my guys. That’s all that matters to me. I feel like I’m still part of the family,” Cabrera told Kirschner (subs. req’d) … Clarke Schmidt (elbow) has full range of motion back and his early rehab work is going well. He’s looking at December/January to begin throwing. Schmidt got the internal brace, not full Tommy John surgery, so there is a chance he could return late next year. That’s a long way off though … And finally, Triple-A Scranton lost the International League Championship Series to Jacksonville (Marlins) this week. Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz gave up five runs and didn’t get out of the first inning in the decisive Game 3 on Thursday. With Scranton’s season over, a bunch of guys will head to Tampa (or Scranton or Somerset?) to serve as the Stay Ready group for the postseason. J.C. Escarra will definitely be there unless he gets the okay to be in the dugout in October. Otherwise, figure the guys with big league time will be in the Stay Ready group (Jake Bird, Ian Hamilton, Brent Headrick, Jorbit Vivas, etc.).
Up Next
The final series of the regular season. Feels like just last week the Yankees were blasting the Brewers into oblivion and torpedo bats broke the sport. A few months ago this last series with the Orioles figured to be of paramount importance, and it is, just not in the way I figured. Here’s the weekend ahead.
Friday vs. O’s: RHP Will Warren vs. LHP Trevor Rogers (7pm ET on YES, MLBN)
Saturday vs. O’s: RHP Cam Schlittler vs. RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (1pm ET on YES)
Sunday vs. O’s: RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Kyle Bradish (3pm ET on YES)
It won’t be easy. Rogers and Bradish are legit good, not just 2025 Orioles good. The O’s will have one foot in the batter’s box and the other on the plane for their offseason vacations though, so hopefully they don’t put up much of a fight this weekend. That, of course, also applies to the Rays, who are in Toronto to play the Blue Jays. Hey, Rays, remember who gave you a place to play this season, yeah?
(I’ve seen a few folks say the Orioles rearranged their rotation to get Rogers and Bradish into this series and stick it to the Yankees, but that didn’t happen. They’ve used a six-man rotation all month. Rogers started last Friday and Monday was an off-day, which lined him up for tonight.)
2. Rapid fire thoughts. As expected, the ABS challenge system is coming next season. It passed the competition committee vote Tuesday. It will work the same way it did in Spring Training. A human umpire will call balls and strikes, and each team can appeal two calls per game to ABS. If your challenge is successful, you keep it. Only the hitter, the pitcher, and the catcher can challenge calls. It can’t come from the dugout. This is obviously the first step toward a fully automated strike zone. I don’t know if that will arrive in two years or five years or 25 years, but it’s coming at some point. Anyway, I am greatly looking forward to Aaron Judge with a more fair bottom of the strike zone ... And finally, next year's Yankees vs. Giants Opening Night game will be a Netflix exclusive, per Andrew Marchand (subs. req'd.). I figured it would be a non-YES broadcast as soon as the 2026 schedule was announced and saw it was the only game on the schedule that night. One step closer to Rob Manfred's dream of 162 games on 162 networks.
Mailbag Questions of the Week
Adam asks: How great has the “Plan B” pivot worked out this year? This felt so unlikely coming off last season’s top heavy lineup that had a Soto-sized hole in it.
We can’t say Plan B worked out perfectly because Devin Williams has been so up and down, but Plan B has worked out incredibly well. A few weeks ago Matt Blake confirmed Griffin Canning was on the radar as part of Plan A, indicating the Yankees weren’t going to spend elsewhere if they re-signed Juan Soto. That would have meant no Max Fried, and with no Fried and no Gerrit Cole, the rotation would have been sunk. No Cody Bellinger either, and he’s been unbelievable. Paul Goldschmidt has been a net positive.
The outfield alignment would have been messy too. You live with it because it’s Juan Soto, but would Aaron Judge have to play center again, or does he learn left field? Does Trent Grisham get the chance to do this with less outfield flexibility? Do the Yankees put Judge at DH when Giancarlo Stanton was hurt early in the season, and Ben Rice never gets a shot? Would the Yankees have had the payroll space to add to the bullpen and at third base at the deadline? Who knows how the dominoes would have fallen?
I don’t want to say the Yankees are better off without Soto because come on, that guy’s incredible. His "disappointing" first season with the Mets is a .267/.399/.536 (159 wRC+) line with 43 homers. I wanted him back badly. Plan B has worked out as well as anyone could have hoped though. Bellinger and Fried have been terrific, Goldschmidt has contributed, the Yankees are much more athletic and better defensively, and players who may not have gotten an opportunity otherwise did get an opportunity, and have been essential.
Plan B is not a one-year thing. We’ll see where the Yankees are at with it next year, because I have no idea what the outfield or the middle of the lineup will look like in 2026, and I can't say I anticipate Hal Steinbrenner opening his wallet in a way that allows the Yankees to sign, say, Kyle Tucker. For 2025, Plan B has been a smashing success. Maybe even better than Plan A would have been. It won’t happen because it usually goes to a small market GM, but Brian Cashman deserves Executive of the Year love, no?
Stephen asks: What's the best possible playoff lineup vs. LHP and vs. RHP?
Here’s an interesting one: Ben Rice has caught a full nine innings just one in his last four starts behind the plate. The Yankees keep subbing him out for defense late in close games. One one hand, it’s good Aaron Boone is not afraid to sub out one of his catchers and doesn’t get caught up with the “what if my catcher gets hurt and I don’t have a backup on the bench?” logic. On the other hand, it’s pretty clear who they want and who they trust most behind the plate when the game is on the line.
That leads me to believe Austin Wells will start behind the plate in the postseason, including against lefties (because he’s hit lefties better than Rice). I would be awfully tempted to play the death lineup against righties in October though. Stephen asked for the best possible playoff lineup. Isn’t this it against righties?
1. CF Trent Grisham
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. 1B Cody Bellinger
4. C Ben Rice
5. DH Giancarlo Stanton
6. 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr.
7. LF Jasson Domínguez
8. SS Anthony Volpe
9. 3B Ryan McMahon
You can always sub in Wells and Paul Goldschmidt for defense late, and slide Bellinger to left field, but that’s the best lineup the Yankees can start against righties. Maybe it’s José Caballero over Volpe at short, but eh, I don’t think a different No. 8 hitter would move the needle much. As for the best possible lineup against lefties, I would go:
1. 1B Paul Goldschmidt
2. RF Aaron Judge
3. LF Cody Bellinger
4. DH Giancarlo Stanton
5. 3B Amed Rosario
6. 2B Jazz Chisholm Jr.
7. SS Anthony Volpe
8. CF Trent Grisham
9. C Austin Wells
Did you know Jazz has a 121 wRC+ against lefties since July 1st? Caballero isn’t enough of an offensive threat for me to want him in there against lefties over Jazz at this point. Also, I know Austin Slater was brought in to hit lefties, something he’s done very well his entire career, but he is 3-for-23 (.130) with 15 strikeouts and no walks as a Yankee, and has looked every bit as bad at the plate as that line suggests. Slater can be on the postseason roster in the “guy who never plays” role. I wouldn’t start him though. Not even against lefties.
Mike asks: You've made comments recently about Warren and Schlittler exceeding their career highs in innings pitched, but the same will soon be true for Fried and Rodon as well. They've already passed their regular season career highs and even after factoring in postseason innings, they are both within 5 innings of those combined totals. Considering their injury histories, how concerned are you for next season's staff? With Schmidt essentially out for the season and Cole already guaranteed to miss a significant chunk, what's your over/under on how many starts ERC will end up getting?
There is always concern when guys throw more innings than they’ve ever thrown before, though I worry less about the veteran 30-somethings like Max Fried and Carlos Rodón than I do the kids like Cam Schlittler and Will Warren. There’s been lots of research showing the early-to-mid-20s are when those big innings jumps are most dangerous. The concern isn’t just the raw innings total either. It’s throwing that many innings and potentially pitching deep into October, and having a shorter offseason to recover. That’s when things really get scary. When the workload’s huge and the recovery is possibly inadequate.
Regardless of how far they go in the postseason, I would expect (or at least I would hope) the Yankees will bring in a starter in the offseason. Maybe not a top flight guy, but a back-end depth starter. Fried, Rodón, Schlittler, Warren, and Luis Gil is a very good rotation on paper, but the Yankees have had a starter(s) get hurt in Spring Training each of the last four years …
2025: Gil, Gerrit Cole, Clarke Schmidt
2024: Cole
2023: Rodón and Luis Severino
2022: Domingo Germán
… and you’re going to need more than that. It can’t just be “the kids will save us again.” Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman, Ryan Yarbrough, and Allan Winans combined to make 24 starts this year. Almost a full rotation spot’s worth. Don’t bank on the Fried, Gil, Rodón, Schlittler, Warren group staying intact until Cole returns because it’s just not going to happen. That’s baseball.
I always worry about rotation depth and big workloads, and if the Yankees make a deep postseason run, I’ll be even more worried than usual. Moreso for the kids than Fried and Rodón, though I’ll worry about them too. It is what it is. As for Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, I’ll set the over under on 13.5 starts next season. Schlittler’s made 13 this year. Seems like a good number for ERC. I’d bet the under simply because I would bet the under on almost any number of starts for a young pitcher. They break. A lot.
Andrew asks: Hope all is well. His first appearance notwithstanding, Paul Blackburn has looked decently sharp on mop-up duty. Do you think he might have a lane to be next year's 2024 Luke Weaver? Brief cameo with the team the year prior to build rapport with Blake, etc. turns into a small guarantee deal that could pay dividends with further bullpen experience?
This crossed my mind. Blackburn gave up seven runs in 3.1 innings in his Yankees debut (all seven runs came in his fourth inning of work), but, since then, he’s been steady: 10 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 11 K, 1 HR in six appearances. He seems to be near the top of the low leverage Circle of Trust™, if such a thing exists. The Yankees shelved his four-seamer and he’s been very sinker heavy since arriving:
Blackburn turns 32 in December and he’s had a lot of injuries in his career. Elbow, shoulder, finger, knee, back, foot, and more. I’m sure he wants another chance to start, but at this point he kinda has to take the best offer because guys like this are always one year or one injury away from being out of the game. For him, the best offer might be along the lines of Luke Weaver’s one-year, $2M deal with a club option.
The Yankees have proof of concept. They can point to Weaver and also Clay Holmes as examples of guys who were middling starters that they turned into MFer relievers. Perhaps I’ll dig more into Blackburn in the offseason, but I can definitely see a path to a reunion and a full-time move into the bullpen next year. The relationship building is already underway and that played a part in Weaver coming back.
Gregg asks: Does it feel like the Yankees have stolen (attempted to steal) third way more this year than ever before? I know since they've started running in the second half of the year, steals have gone up, but in particular, steals of third seem to be way more common. How do the Yankees compare in stealing third with the rest of the league in 2025? How do they compare historically with other Yankees teams?
Yes, the Yankees are stealing third base more, and so is the rest of the league. Here are the numbers during the Aaron Boone era:
Stolen base attempt rate is attempts per stolen base opportunity, with an opportunity defined as a runner on second with third base unoccupied. Larger bases and the disengagement limit became a thing in 2023, yet the Yankees upped their steal attempts of third in 2022. Huh. It was a team-wide effort too. Gleyber Torres went 5-for-5 stealing third that year. No one else had more than two. Again: huh.
Only the Rays (34 attempts and 4.7% attempt rate) have attempted more steals of third than the Yankees, and only the Padres (27), Rays (25), and Mariners (25) have stolen third base successfully more times. The 70.6% success rate is not good, the Yankees have been very inefficient when they attempt to take third base, but they try to steal third more than every non-Rays team in the game.
Personnel obviously helps, though those 2022-24 teams weren’t exactly speedy, yet the Yankees tried to steal third often those years relative to the league average. This is something they’ve been sneaky good at for a few years. I wish their success rate was better, but they have the players to steal third more often now, and they’re doing it. I wonder how many people (casual fans, national broadcasters, etc.) will be surprised this postseason when the Yankees run wild like they have these last few weeks.
A different Stephen asks: Who will be the 2nd best position player on the Yankees in 3 years? (I'm assuming Judge will still be the best player). I think Ben Rice is the easiest answer because he's already good and will still have a Yankees contract in 3 years.
I don’t think it’ll be Rice. I can buy him as the Yankees’ second best hitter in three years, but unless his defense behind the plate takes a big step forward, he’s gonna be a defensively limited first baseman. That isn’t “second best player on the team” material unless we’re talking Pete Alonso power. Rice being the second best player on the Yankees in three years would either be very, very good, or pretty not great.
The smart money is on a player not currently in the organization. Gunnar Henderson, Kyle Tucker, etc. I’m gonna say Elly De La Cruz. He’s four years away from free agency and there’s no reason to think the Reds will extend him, so they’ll trade him eventually, and it lines up well with our timeline. I dunno if this will be a Juan Soto situation (one year of the player) or a longer term move, but I’ll say Elly.
Who the Yankees will trade for De La Cruz is anyone’s guess. Likely pitchers they haven’t leveled up or even drafted yet. Drew Thorpe was still at Cal Poly three years before the Soto trade. Mike King was a mediocre swingman. So much can change in three years. I think Rice will be a very good hitter in three years but I don’t think he’ll be the Yankees’ second best player. I’ll have some fun and say Elly.
Brian asks: When watching games on YES, pitches appear to be clearly inside or outside the strike zone and missed by the Umpire. If I check these pitches on MLB gameday or Fangraphs they often appear to be correct calls by the ump. Which platform do you think has the most accurate pitch location data?
100% go with Gameday, which is based on Statcast (I believe the FanGraphs zone is too). The K Zone on broadcasts is terrible. Half the time it isn’t even centered over the plate. I’m very much in favor of getting rid of the K Zone. I think it does a disservice to the game and I’d rather have nothing at all. All it does is invite negativity about borderline calls. There is nothing positive to be taken from it.
Anyway, these are the same pitch (this is from last Friday):
We all complained about the call in real time because the pitch is below the K Zone, but it’s in the Statcast strike zone. It’s a strike. As much as I complain about umpires, I have to give them props. They’re the best in the world at what they do. Replace the 76 current umpires with the next best 76 umpires, and it will be noticeable, and not in a good way. Stick to Gameday for balls and strikes. The K Zone is an abomination, and, thankfully, it may be going away once the ABS challenge system takes effect next year.
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Comments
John
If Judge is the best player in 3 years that means one of two things happened: - he’s still doing this or 90% of it - Jasson / Jones / Lombard are all simply okay or above average regulars
Dan G
Def nix the K box go for all the reasons Mike listed. I don’t even mind the location circle or the speed (pitch type is too much). I just don’t need my hand held to tell me what a strike it Also hooray ABS. It just makes sense
Will
I'm one of those K-Zone idiots, because I only learned a few months ago that that's not just a mapping of Statcast. And I feel like they should at least consider starting Caballero over McMahon at 3B in the postseason. Bring in McMahon as a defensive replacement, but I don't know if I want a guy with almost no offense getting so many ABs in a short series.
