RAB Thoughts
patreon
September 29th, 2025: AL East, Judge, Stanton, Schlittler, Bullpen
🕑 Added 2025-09-29 10:00:13 +0000 UTCThe Yankees did what they had to do these last two weeks, but it was what they did two months ago that cost them the AL East title. The Yankees finished with the same 94-68 record as the Blue Jays – the same 94-68 record as the 2024 Yankees – and the American League’s best run differential by 54 runs, but the tiebreaker was not in their favor. The Blue Jays are AL champions, the Yankees are a Wild Card team.
"A month and a half ago we were teetering on – when it wasn't going great – even being out of the picture,” Aaron Boone told Gary Phillips after Sunday’s game. “So to right the ship and then really solidify our position, and then have a real shot at the East here all the way to the last day, hopefully it's something that serves us well, has kept us sharp, has kept us really locked in. I think that's good thing."
When you lose a division (and a Wild Card Series bye) by the slimmest of margins, it’s easy to think back to all the blown leads and hideous losses, like this one and this one and especially this one. You blame individual players, Boone, the Rays for sleepwalking through this past weekend, and a million other things. One win! That’s all the Yankees needed, and plenty of wins slipped through their fingers this summer.
This isn’t on any one player or the Rays though. It’s on the Yankees. They’re a better team than the Blue Jays, I truly believe that, but they didn’t play like it for two months. The Yankees played seven games in Toronto in July and went 1-6 while kicking the ball around like Little Leaguers. That right there is the difference in the division race. The Yankees didn’t take care of business against the Blue Jays. That's the story of the AL East.
The Yankees swept their final homestand and won eight straight to close out the season for only the third in franchise history. They won their final eight games in 1979 and their final 15 games (!) in 1960. Losing the AL East on a tiebreaker is a major letdown, but 94-68 and a +164 run differential? After losing Juan Soto? Sign me the hell up for that. We were also blessed with this Gerrit Cole GIF on Friday:
That man is bored out of his mind. He has no idea what to do with himself when he can’t pitch. Too bad he’s not healthy, man. Cole, Max Fried, and Carlos Rodón would be the best 1-2-3 the Yankees have had in the postseason since CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Andy Pettitte in 2009. As it stands, Fried and Rodón are a pretty great 1-2 punch. Cam Schlittler has quickly emerged as a hell of a No. 3 too.
“He really gave us a shot in the arm in the rotation when he came up. He’s a big reason we’re in the position we’re in,” Boone told Greg Joyce about Schlittler over the weekend. “… You walk out there with that equipment and I’d be confident too. There’s a humility to him. He doesn’t think he has everything figured out. He does have confidence with a real good competitiveness. That’s a good combination.”
Two division titles, one Wild Card spot, and some seeding was on the line going into Game 162 on Sunday. Here’s how the postseason bracket shook out:
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Bye: Blue Jays (No. 1) and Mariners (No. 2)
Wild Card: Tigers (No. 6) at Guardians (No. 3) (winner plays Mariners)
Wild Card: Red Sox (No. 5) at Yankees (No. 4) (winner plays Blue Jays)
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Bye: Brewers (No. 1) and Phillies (No. 2)
Wild Card: Reds (No. 6) at Dodgers (No. 3) (winner plays Phillies)
Wild Card: Padres (No. 5) at Cubs (No. 4) (winner plays Brewers)
The Mets, man. They had the best record in baseball on June 12th (45-24), then had the fifth worst record in baseball the rest of the way (38-55). The Mets signed Soto, won three fewer games than last year, and lost out on the third Wild Card spot. Could you imagine? The Yankees lost Soto and won the same number of games as last year. They’re not perfect, but they sure as shit aren’t the Mets.
Anyway, the Yankees had a nice cushy path through the AL Central (plus the bye) en route to the World Series last year. That won’t be the case this year. They have to go through the Red Sox first, the Blue Jays second, and then maybe they’ll luck out and catch an AL Central team in the ALCS. This pennant will be earned, not gifted. Let’s get to today’s post.
1. Weekend thoughts. The baseball gods gave the Yankees 13 straight games against non-contenders to close out the season, and they went 11-2 in those 13 games, including sweeping the Orioles this past weekend. Can’t complain about that. Just do better than 27-25 against the AL East next year, okay? Here are a few thoughts on the last few games.
A batting title and another historic season
Aaron Judge hit .284/.422/.627 (174 wRC+) with 52 home runs as a rookie and it will be, at best, his fourth best season. Judge went 4-for-11 (.364) with two homers against the Orioles over the weekend and clinched the MLB (not just the AL) batting title over Jacob Wilson with plenty of room to spare. It’s not enough to say Judge led the league in the three slash line categories. He lapped the field:
AVG: .331 (Jacob Wilson was second at .311)
OBP: .457 (George Springer was second at .399)
SLG: .688 (Shohei Ohtani was second at .622)
wRC+: 205 (Ohtani was second at 172)
“Nothing Aaron Judge does surprises me,” Aaron Boone told Bryan Hoch after Friday’s win. “To me, he’s the clear-cut MVP. I don’t put anything past 99. He’s playing like an all-time great.”
Correction, Boonie: Judge is an all-time great, not just playing like one. Judge also led baseball in fWAR (+10.1) and bWAR (+9.8), and Championship Probability Added (+4.9%) too. That’s Win Probability Added on steroids. WPA is “how much closer did this move your team to winning the game?” CPA is “how much closer did this move your team to a championship?” and Judge is atop the league.
Similar to wRC+ and OPS+ and ERA+, FanGraphs has AVG+, which compares a hitter’s AVG to the league average. Judge has a 136 AVG+, meaning his .331 AVG is 36% better than the league’s .245 AVG. Just to give you an idea what a 136 AVG+ looks like, Tony Gwynn had a 136 AVG+ when he hit .368 in 1995. Only 16 qualified hitters this century had a 136 AVG+, and five of the 16 did it in the fake 2020 season.
On top of the output, Judge cut his strikeout rate to 23.6 K% this year, a career low. He ran a 30.7 K% from 2017-20 and was immensely productive doing so. Since 2021, it’s a 25.1 K%, and it’s been even lower than that in 2024 (24.3%) and 2025. It’s not a coincidence Judge’s AVG has soared the last few years. He hits the ball harder than anyone and is striking out less. That equals hits.
I don’t want to pick on Cal Raleigh here, because he seems like a swell dude and he’s a great player who had a historically awesome season, but Judge reached base 57 more times than Raleigh in 18 fewer plate appearances, and he had 21 more total bases. I say that not to diminish Raleigh, but to elevate Judge. Raleigh just wrapped up one of the greatest seasons ever (not just for a catcher) and Judge was still that much better.
Judge’s 53 home runs are the most ever for a batting champion, topping Mickey Mantle’s 52 in 1956. With the Yankees playing for a division title, he hit .345/.518/.690 (249 wRC+) and reached base 59 times in 25 September games. It was 46 times in the final 17 games. Judge is as locked in as he’s been all season. Now he needs to carry into October and get that postseason monkey off his back.
I am willing to hear arguments that Ohtani is the better player because come on, that guy is from another planet, but Judge is the best hitter in the world. It’s not arguable. His peak is pretty much the best ever for a right-handed hitter: .311/.439/.678 (204 wRC+) in over 2,500 plate appearances since 2022. Another historically great season in a historically great career. Now go win a ring, Aaron (and friends).
Nice home run rate you have there, would be a shame if something happened to it
Going into Friday’s game, Trevor Rogers had allowed three home runs in 106.2 innings. That’s a 0.25 HR/9. Judge and Giancarlo Stanton saw that, did the Predator handshake …
… and took Rogers deep three times in the span of 10 batters (videos). Stanton’s second homer was an absolute nuke: 451 feet over the garage door and into the little bar area next to the Mohegan Sun Sports Bar. Big G went 6-for-13 (.462) with three homers in the final four games of the season. Those were basically postseason games. October G came early this year.
“I do what I can with pitches out over the plate,” Stanton told Hoch. “As long as it goes over the fence, that’s what matters.”
Stanton’s first homer against Rogers was No. 48 in the first inning for the Yankees, breaking a tie with the 2023 Braves and setting a new single-season record. Judge added the 49th first-inning homer Saturday. It was his 20th first inning homer of 2025, extending his record for a single inning (any inning, not just the first). Big G finished the season at .273/.350/.598 (158 wRC+) with 24 homers in 77 games, by the way.
The Yankees did not get all their home run history, unfortunately. Cody Bellinger never did pick up his 30th home run, so the Yankees finished with three 30-homer guys, not a franchise record four. Also, Anthony Volpe finished with 19 homers. The Yankees had seven 20-homer guys this year, not an MLB record-tying eight. They did lead baseball with 274 homers though, 30 more than any other team.
18 different players hit a home run for the Yankees this season. I checked to see if that was a record and no, not even close. Not only is the record 25 (!), it’s been done a bunch of times, including by the 2023 Angels. The Yankees had a franchise record 23 guys hit a home run in 2013! Makes sense, I guess. Like the 2023 Angels, the 2013 Yankees used A LOT of players, and some of ‘em ran into homers.
Only two players took a plate appearance for the Yankees this season and did not hit a home run. Any guesses? I think one is kinda obvious. He’s on the team right now. You have to go back a ways for the other. I’ll give you a second.
…
…
…
It’s Pablo Reyes (34 PA) and Austin Slater (25 PA). They are the two homerless Yankees. Oswaldo Cabrera hit one out before his injury, which I don’t remember even after watching the video. We all love opposite field singles and stolen bases, but home runs will get you to heaven. The Yankees haven’t had a lineup this deep with power in a few years. Not since 2019, probably. Please let it carry over into October.
Cam’s new slider
Cam Schlittler was throwing 94-96 mph for Double-A Somerset in April. He finished his regular season with a 99.3 mph fastball and seven shutout innings for the Yankees (video). The Orioles are bad and were playing out the string, but I assume Saturday cemented Schlittler’s status as the No. 3 starter in October. A meteoric rise for the 2022 seventh rounder and my preseason No. 21 prospect.
“It’s obviously high stakes right now, and I don’t have experience in the playoffs,” Schlittler told Hoch when asked about the postseason rotation. “I take it day to day. I’m aware of the situation, but that’s over with. Now I’ve got to focus on next week.”
A few weeks back the Yankees had Schlittler shelve his slider because it was getting blasted. Five starts into his MLB career, opponents were hitting .444 with a 1.222 SLG (SLG, not OPS) against the slider, and the whiff rate was down at 12.5%. That’s about a third of what you want. On Saturday, Schlittler debuted a new slider with less velocity and more dive down. Here’s the movement graph via Lucas Apostoleris:
Schlittler’s cutter and slider bled together too much earlier this year. Similar velocity, similar break, etc. The new slider has much bigger velocity separation and fills in that gap in the movement graph. That’s all the rage these days. Filling up as many corners of the movement graph as possible. Schlittler couldn’t do that earlier this year. Not with his old slider. He broke out a new one Saturday.
Even without much of a slider this year, Schlittler gave the Yankees 73 innings with a 2.96 ERA (3.74 FIP) in 14 starts as a rookie. Also a 27.6 K% and 10.2 BB%. Hopefully the walk rate comes down as he gains more experience, and I would like Schlittler to add a changeup or splitter to fill in that lower left quadrant of the movement graph. That’s an offseason topic though. Saturday was a terrific finish to a terrific rookie season. May a terrific postseason follow.
Miscellany
Can’t say I loved David Bednar pitching Sunday. Or Luke Weaver, for that matter. The Blue Jays were up 8-4 in the seventh inning when Weaver entered the game. The Wild Card Series is three games in three days, and Bednar and Weaver may have to get 4+ outs. If they pitch in Game 1 and Game 2, Game 2 will now be three appearances in four days. It’s a lot. I would’ve preferred to give those two a nice long breather leading into Tuesday … Boone said the starting shortstop would be a day-to-day decision, then Volpe started the last five and eight of the last nine games. What a surprise. He finished the year in a 3-for-18 (.167) skid and hit .169/.208/.290 (35 wRC+) in August and September against the Not White Sox … The Yankees can’t use Paul Goldschmidt as anything other than a defensive replacement in the postseason, can they? He hit .226/.277/.333 (69 wRC+) after June 1st, including .240/.290/.400 (87 wRC+) against lefties. Goldy hit his last home run on Aug. 6th, and he hit two home runs in his last 238 plate appearances. No more end-of-line veteran first basemen, please. Let Ben Rice cook in 2026.
Injury updates and roster notes
Jazz Chisholm Jr. escaped that hit by pitch Saturday (video) with a bruised forearm. X-rays and a CT scan came back negative. The Yankees lost Anthony Rizzo to a broken finger on a hit by pitch in Game 161 last year. Losing Jazz would have been much, much worse. Fortunately the pitch hit the meat of his forearm and not his wrist or elbow. He was able to pinch-hit Sunday. I'm sure he'll be in the lineup Tuesday … J.C. Escarra and Brent Headrick were with the Yankees over the weekend. They were on the taxi squad, not the active roster. I assume Escarra will stay with the Yankees through the postseason so the third catcher is never too far away. The rest of the Stay Ready group is in Scranton. Not sure who’s there, but figure it’s the guys we’ve seen throughout the year (Yerry De Los Santos, Jorbit Vivas, etc.).
Up next
The best-of-three Wild Card Series at Yankee Stadium. It’s the first time the Yankees have played in one of these. The 12-team format became a thing in 2022 and the Yankees had a bye in 2022 and 2024, and missed the postseason in 2023. Here is the series schedule:
Monday: off-day
Game 1 on Tuesday: LHP Max Fried vs. LHP Garrett Crochet (6pm ET on ESPN)
Game 2 on Wednesday: LHP Carlos Rodón vs. RHP Brayan Bello (6pm ET on ESPN)
Game 3 on Thursday: RHP Cam Schlittler vs. RHP Lucas Giolito (6pm ET on ESPN) (if necessary)
Friday: off-day (even if the Yankees win the Wild Card Series)
All three games will be played in the Bronx. There’s no travel during the Wild Card Series. Also, Crochet and Bello are the only official starters right now. We all know Fried and Rodón are starting Games 1 and 2 though, plus Schlittler and Giolito line up for Game 3, but they haven't been announced yet. That'll happen later today.
As for RAB, the usual Tuesday/Friday format goes out the window this time of year. I will definitely have something before Game 1 on Tuesday, likely in the early afternoon. After that, we’ll take it game-by-game. It’s been enough years of this that you know how October works around here. I will have plenty the next few weeks. (The mailbag is going on hiatus for now unless I manage to carve out time.)
(Send your requests for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. The random Yankee series is on hiatus, but feel free to send in requests for when it returns.)
Comments
Chris M.
As Derek Jeter famously said..."They're just the Mets."
DocBob
Anyone else get slowed-down sound from the Film Room videos?
