ionicXBT
patreon
30) Bitcoin's price is doing the EXACT same thing.
🕑 Added 2023-05-17 12:04:23 +0000 UTCThis is an interesting fractal I found.
Look, most of you remember that I ACCURATELY called the top at $69k.
This was done by identifying a very similar pattern on the charts and then it REPEATED itself.
Let me remind you:
This is an important discovery:
Finding a fractal that has actually played out proves that Bitcoin fractals can be RELIABLE.
This specific fractal serves as concrete EVIDENCE.
Now, we already know that there was a fractal pattern from 2021 to 2022.
So, it's reasonable to consider the possibility of another fractal pattern continuing in the future.
Let me elaborate on this concept.
What if:
The entire market this year is inversely correlated to Bitcoin's price action in 2022?
In other words, what if the price movement in 2023 follows the opposite direction compared to 2022?
Look at this below:
-
Hear me out.
In 2022, we observed a bearish divergence on the weekly timeframe, which signaled the TOP of the market and led to a downtrend for the year.
Now, in 2023, we noticed a bullish divergence on the weekly timeframe which could indicate a potential BOTTOMING out of the market and the start of an uptrend.
The key point here is the inverse relationship between the bearish divergence in 2022 and the bullish divergence in 2023.
If the bearish divergence resulted in a DOWNTREND, it suggests that the bullish divergence could potentially lead to an UPTREND.
This is an analysis based on patterns and historical observations.
-
-
Also not only is the trend similar, but also the DATES it occurred in.
In 2022, the bearish trend began in November 2021. Then the market started to experience a downward movement throughout the year 2022.
Now, in 2023, we are observing that the bullish trend began in November 2022.
Comparing these two timeframes it suggests that the year 2023 may be characterized by an overall bullish movement in the market.
Coincidence?
This analysis is about being one step ahead analysis - lets continue.
-
-
Now I am going to show you the actual pattern/fractal that this move could be following.
This is the fractal below:
-
Let's analyse this carefully:
Left Fractal (Bearish Trend in 2022):
Point A: The initial fall, which was a significant downward move.
Point B: A small upward move after the fall.
Point C: Continued the downward trend.
Point D: A larger deep pullback occurred.
Finally, the largest move followed.
Now, let's consider the inverse for the bullish divergence of 2022, which could shape the potential trend in 2023:
Right Fractal (Potential Bullish Trend in 2023):
Point A: The initial upward move.
Point B: A small pullback after the initial rise.
Point C: Continuing the upward trend.
Point D: Currently experiencing a pullback, which, in this scenario, may precede the largest move upward.
By observing these fractals and their corresponding movements, we can speculate that 2023 may continue a bullish trend, similar to the INVERSE pattern of the bearish divergence in 2022.
-
-
Let's address these two final important questions you probably have:
- How deep will the pullback of point D be?
- What is the invalidation level of this fractal?
To determine the potential depth of the pullback at point D, we can refer to the bearish trend's pullback at point D as a guideline.
In that case, the pullback did not go below point B.
Therefore, in the bullish trend, we would want to see the pullback at point D stay ABOVE point B.
-
The invalidation level of this fractal refers to the point at which this theory would be considered invalid.
In this case, if the price drops below point B in the bullish fractal, it would INVALIDATE the previous fractal pattern.
This level becomes the threshold for monitoring the validity of the bullish trend.
To be specific, if the price falls below $20k, which is below point B, it would invalidate the fractal and suggest a deviation from the expected pattern.
It's worth noting that there is a HUGE wick at point B.
In this scenario, considering the large wick on point B in the bullish fractal, we need to decide whether we include the wick or only consider the candle close at $22k.
To be on the safe side and avoid missing out on a potential bull run, it is best to count the wick at $20k as part of the analysis.
This approach ensures that we don't sell at the bottom and potentially miss out on favorable market conditions.
Always one step ahead.
@ionicXBT
Comments
gold topic... the more we move on, the more we learn...
right on track
