ionicXBT
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2024 Bitcoin Chart Prediction.
🕑 Added 2024-01-17 21:02:41 +0000 UTCThis is my Bitcoin chart.
I'm going to be very upfront and straightforward with what I see happening.
That's what I've realised about my accuracy.
When you take what you see on the charts, you become very objective, not subjective.
You trade what you see, not what you want to see.
Therefore, this approach brings the best results by maintaining a robotic approach.
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Here is the link to the chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/JmFC6z6g/
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So before I tell you the plan for 2024,
Let me explain how simple the previous price action was.
This will shift your thinking of technical analysis if you really understand.
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Notice that the bottom was called by a bullish divergence; we only got one touch, but as this was on the weekly chart, this is enough.
Now the top two arrows facing down clearly show a resistance.
That breakout after the second arrow facing down shows a break in bearish structure.
Resistance was tested twice, then we broke out, and then retested and held support.
Stay with me now.
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This breakout also showed us another thing.
It shows the change in market structure.
How?
The entire trend was bearish as it was making lower lows and lower highs.
But as soon as we broke out and the price created a higher high, going above the previous lower high.
Also, what supported this break in structure from bearish to bullish is the fact that the price then failed to go below the previous lower high.
This is shown as the price held the retest and acted as support, shown by the two arrows facing up.
This was how I was able to exactly long from 25k, as it was a simple breakout and retest which continued higher.
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Now what is going on now?
it is clear that after a breakout and retest from the lows, price is filling liquidity.
Liquidty from where you may ask.
Well the entire down trend from 2022 was bearish
and during 2023 I said we would be basically retesting the bearish trend.
This was made clear in the 2023 outlook I posted on pattern and is exactly what happened as price pumped to 49k.
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As price had reached 49k then we expected a correction as 50k got front run.
Why?
As its a key level as well as a psychological level by being a round number.
Also the fact we had many weeks bullish suggests we are due a correction before the real null run.
Now why do I believe this.
Not only because there is a bearish divergence at 49k where we topped of.
But also because the bitcoin halving is in April.
And by looking at every previous bitcoin halving there is a pattern in which bitcoin sells off leading to the actual halving and then the bull run starts to go high.
This seems to be the exact same scenario happening here for bitcoin halving in April.
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You may ask, why is there a sell-off in Bitcoin leading up to the halving?
I will explain why this happens.
But first, you need to understand who does the halving impact the most.
The answer is the miners, as their rewards for mining are cut in half.
So, the reason the price falls leading up to the halving is due to anticipation and uncertainty from miners as they start to sell.
Why do they sell?
Miners receive fewer new Bitcoins as rewards, impacting their profits.
This makes them want to sell their existing holdings to cover costs, increasing supply.
After the halving,
The reduced supply of new Bitcoins mixes with growing demand, creating a scarcity effect.
This, combined with increased interest and positive sentiment, can lead to a higher Bitcoin price during the subsequent bull run.
The market perception shifts from uncertainty before the halving to optimism about Bitcoin's scarcity and potential value after it, which leads to the bull run.
Interesting, right? Now, let's go back to the topic.
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So, I see a pullback occurring as we reached 50k, which is a key level, and the Bitcoin halving is near.
From a chart perspective, we had multiple bullish weeks, and we need a retracement to go higher.
Now, you may ask, how deep will this pullback be?
I will tell you,
As the Bitcoin bull run is near, you do not want to be underpositioned because you missed your entry by a few dollars.
So, I decided to be very strategic about it.
We will Dollar Cost Average our entries and be well-positioned.
I have set multiple entries at:
- $38,000
- $34,500
- $31,400
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There are confluences to why these levels are key.
Not only is it a key support after a breakout, but notice the trend line.
The trend line around 30k acted as resistance twice, then price broke out, and now the support of the trend line correlates with the support of the breakout.
This proves as extra liquidity of support needed to be taken before going higher.
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The reason $31,400 will be my final entry is because that is also my invalidation level on my thesis.
If the price goes below that level, this idea will be wrong.
This is what separates me from other traders like CAPO.
I know where I am wrong and will be willing to accept it.
Why is this my invalidation level?
This is simply because that will be the perfect retest for bitcoin from a resistance that turned into support.
So if the price fails to hold that level then it would have broken bullish structure.
And remember breaking structure is the first signs of a change in trend.
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Here is the link to the chart:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/JmFC6z6g/
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Nevertheless, this is a bullish market, and pullbacks will be buying.
This is what I mean by buying strategically, knowing your entry as well as knowing your exit.
Now, this is what separates me from other fake traders.
It would be in my best interest for me to set some silly target that Bitcoin will reach $150k, and we will sell there.
That is what most people do.
But I actually care about you if you are reading this post.
So the truth is the top will be when the charts tell me, and each divergence will be a warning.
Let's not forget this is coming from ionicXBT, the person who publicly called the top last cycle at 69k.
I actually know how to spot the top and will do so again this cycle.
So let's win properly.
@ionicXBT
Comments
Great honest analysis, i am in the right place and always easy to understand.
Thank you for the analysis once again. Gearing up for pullbacks. Plan in motion. We won't leave, we continue to stay committed. at the end, we will win
