thetradingparrot
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New bot: Very conservative alternative to Amika/Venka
🕑 Added 2021-02-25 15:58:09 +0000 UTCWe know March is coming. February already gave us a sneak peak of what March tastes like most years. Bearish.
I personally believe 2021 is different. My hypothesis is 2021 is an overall bullish year. But that doesn't mean we won't see corrections.
Everybody talks about corrections but I strongly believe that NO ONE can forecast accurately the exact severity of price drops.
I'm personally feeling conservative for March and bullish for the rest of 2021. Let's look at these statistics so we can understand a bit more how are the coins used by Amika and Venka performing in regards to drawdowns:
As you can see in the table above, in the last 2 months BTC has only had a max drawdown of 30%. 72% is the max drawdown that BTC has ever experience, from top to bottom. The average drawdown during the last 2 months has been 13%. BTC tends to be more mild in terms of volatility compared to other tokens.
EOS, on the other end has an average drawdown in the last 2 months of 63%. It's constantly jumping up and down, followed by TRX.
If we remove these last two we are left with average drawdowns in the range of 13% to 28%.
Why drawdown matters for DCA bot settings?
It matters A LOT! Venka buys its lowest SO at 8%, Amika is more aggressive it only places its last SO at price drops of 3%. This makes it non ideal for an historically bearish month.
I don't even want to mention the drawdowns for any of these coins on March 2020. They were inflated by the beginning of the pandemic and being a bearish historical month.
BTC had its highest drawdown in history a year ago on March.
Can we still profit with Amika/Venka next March?
If we are wrong and March turns out to be a very bullish month in 2021, Amika and Venka would have shown off massively. But personally I will keep them running only on paper trading from now.
But that doesn't mean this is over, I have prepared a third variation of Amika, called Safira. This bot introduces the following changes to the original design of Amika tailored to a shaky month:
- RSI7 4H < 68
- Buy TV signal instead of strong buy
- RSI7 3m < 70
- EOS and TRX removed
- SOs have been increased to 20%
- Volume is heavier on lower SOs
You can copy as usual this bot from the database I have it running since the morning with 8513 USDC.
Comments
Increasing TP to 8 will take more patience than waiting for 1%, if you are low on patience I would consider that too π
FYI I ran out of USDT and added more but soon realised I needed a lot more to get out of the bad deals. I didnβt listen to your advice re reserves. Hopefully others are more patient than me. I had about 5 BNB sat there so started trading various QFL bots with that and have to say they have been excellent (so far). Nice to see a page of greens! I have increased TP to an average of 8% but TTP to 3% so they can stay in the game on the bumps. A lot are therefore tracking to around 10-20% - a slow game but rewarding.
10% for now but I will keep monitoring - I donβt mind waiting if I think Iβll get 50%
Because they most likely filled most SOs the volume would be larger, so the profit will also be larger. How much did increase the TP?
Iβm in the same boat (along with a lot of others). Iβve decided to keep my reds as they are but Iβve increased the TTP %; I feel I deserve more out of them for having them sat there so long π¬
Iβm leaving the deals open running, stopping Amika and venka and running safira, details can be found in the bots running channel on discord
What do you suggest to do with all the still-opened-deals made by Venka and Amika last week? I have almost all my 10K invested that are stuck for this. Should I use my 3K reserve to cover these 10K or you suggest to use these 3K with Safira new bot?
