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What's next for BTC - were we ahead of schedule?
🕑 Added 2021-05-18 12:40:00 +0000 UTCI've notice that there's loads of people and influencers producing very extreme forecasts for this bull cycle: either they think we already topped or that we are going to have a similar bull run as the previous cycles.
I'm bringing 3 charts to your attention that should help us produce a more informed forecast.
Each of these charts are for all the past BTC cycles. They only differ from the time they start:
- ATH chart - Days since crossing prior ATH
- Halving chart - Days since halving
- Bottom chart - Days since bottom
After looking at them we can extract some interesting facts:
- No matter which starting day you use to measure the full cycle, each sub-sequential cycle takes longer to top. This indicates that if this bull run follows the trend it could potentially take way longer to top as well, even past 2021. If that was the case corrections and side way movements could take months.
- Each sub-sequential cycle shows diminished ROI. If we also follow this trend we should expect BTC to top below the ROI of previous cycles. If we do a linear projection, any of the charts would indicate that there's still room for up side movement, even while factoring in the expectation of a lower ROI compared to previous cycles.
- Bottom and halving charts indicate that we were ahead of schedule when we consider that each cycle historically has been taking longer to reach the higher levels. This could indicate that BTC enter too quick euphoric phase and now it's just taking time to slow down. This also allows for some extra room for sideway movement and even for a few bearish BTC months while still being on schedule. Be prepared for that, do not assume that we will go up at the same speed we did from December to March all the bull cycle.
- People expect BTC to go to 300K just by looking at the previous cycles ROI without considering that each cycle shows diminished returns. Just by doing a naive linear projection we can see that each chart shows potential tops as:
1) ATH chart potential top: 7.5X and we are at 3X --> 160K target
2) Halving chart potential top: 10x and we are at 7X --> 92K target
3) Bottom chart potential top: 25x and we are at 20X --> 81.2K target
Which target do you think we are going to achieve this cycle?
