Foolish Baseball patreon

Patreon Q&A - August 2024

🕑 Added 2024-08-08 19:23:57 +0000 UTC

Comments

Ari Wolfe

Thank you for answering my question, Bailey! You made my day. I grew up with Reggie. He’s an incredible man on and off the field and a great friend.

Luca G

Great answers, cheers FB

Paul

lol the MLB players in the Olympics question reminds me of a time on /r/baseball where a poster was arguing that based on historical records of spear throwing ability Ancient Romans could probably throw gas

Francis Alipranti

Hey Bailey, thanks for your answer. Now I have to double down, I think I need a Bailey Comedy Special one day.

EanieBeanie

Answering how (Derek) VanRiper discusses Monty Hall - He too understands switching doors is advantagous. However, he seems to think that changing his mind, about seemingly anything, is an example of the Monty Hall problem. example: https://x.com/DerekVanRiper/status/1810776218863829121 The Monty Hall Problem works specifically because you know you will be told a wrong answer (after your initial choice) that previously had equal odds when you made that choice. Referencing his tweet above, the Monty Hall Problem doesn't apply when predicting the winner of a divison (unless you thought CWS had equal odds to win the central, in which case, we have bigger problems at hand). That's just changing your mind due to new information. Monty Hall does not have new information - You will always choose a door, you will always be shown a goat behind a different door, you will always be asked to switch. It's not dynamic. Assuming you commit to switching, picking the car (33% chance) will always result in a loss and picking a goat (66% chance) will always result in a win. I think there's potential for an anology about guess-hitting and tipping pitches, but that's above both my pay-grade and my intellect.