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So it is done: Summit
🕑 Added 2022-11-22 07:16:14 +0000 UTCThe premier summit of the modern world. The first international summit truly dedicated to solving a pressing geopolitical crisis affecting the entirety of Remnant. The subject of so many theories and discussions, rumors and speculations – anyone who has ever been at all interested in what is on the news has at least once imagined what such an event would actually be like.
Ozpin, for his part, did not need to imagine such a thing, after all, he was one of the organizers of the summit, using all his skills and knowledge of past lives to organize it. It’s surprising how little things change, people still loves to broadcast how important they are by joining in one place to make it the most juicy target for any assassination attempt.
All the more so, formally speaking, Ozpin had an unambiguous, simple and clear reason for organizing the summit, to draw out each of his political opponents and allies for negotiations. One could see Ozpin's appearance as an attempt to protect his ally, the stubborn, unprepared, but ultimately reliable and aspiring General James Ironwood. Again, he’s surprised by just how easy it is to manage public expectations, he’s not doing that at all.
Even if he wanted to, the problem was that even Ozpin did not have the means, the ability and most importantly the motivation to defend him.
In agreement with general opinion, James Ironwood did represent the head of his 'faction', but in contradiction to the meaning of the word ‘faction’, that faction consisted solely of him alone. Ozpin and Lionheart in this case did not come to support James, but to pursue their own goals in the wake of the destruction of Atlas.
James is persistent, but he has no cards to play, all he can do is try to appeal to the kindness, what is there to be found, of his opponents and be stubborn to the last. But he has no strength to actually affect anything; in the end he will simply sign the summit's decision.
What comes next would be his last decree, forcibly resigning himself, along with depriving himself of all his ranks and honors – and then a dying will, marked with his last signature in this life. All before putting the final touches on his life with the harsh sound of his beloved revolver's gunshot.
I'm sorry, old friend, James.
Aifal was, however, an unknown variable. Ozpin was aware of the scope and resources he had, but his motivations were mysterious even to Ozpin. Aifal was a player more interested in trying to guess which side a thrown playing die would fall on than in whether he would lose or win on his bet. The main danger of such people was their unpredictability.
In Aifal’s case, this unpredictability was reinforced by his incredibly vast resources and seemingly pervasive connections. If James could have had an ally, it was Aifal. Or perhaps Aifal simply came here for the purpose of enjoying the spectacle, not at all planning to negotiate. Whatever his motivation might be, he’s a variable that seriously hinders the construction of any decent theories and hypotheses.
If only Ozpin could have reached Aifal in his private palace and finish him off early…
Quartz, on the other hand, is nothing special, a clever and powerful player perhaps, pursuing his own gain and seduced by visions of his own greatness and the creation of a beautiful society of the future. He is quite capable of putting his name in the history books of this era, but Ozpin has seen his kind in the past many times before, he already knows how that story would play out. Quartz would play his strong hand carefully, holding his best cards until the key moment, trying to maintain an apparent neutral and only 'accidentally' taking the side of the rebels at the end, disguised as 'concern for our common citizens'. If Jonathan's position begins to weaken, he will slowly and very secretly help them, but still trying to pass himself off as a protector of the common good of Atlas and Mantle’.
Jonathan can't lose this negotiation, so Quartz will keep the truth of his support to the very end, ideally by revealing that post-facto after the summit.
Such a figure will come in handy for Mantle in the early years of their rule, he will help hold on to the new power and effectively deal with threats from outside and inside. After which he should be removed, before his usefulness turns into his danger
Lionheart is just there as another body to support Ozpin, he has always been too weak-willed to play his own game, following his leader, repeating his leader's position word for word.
If his leader is Ozpin, he will support what Ozpin says.
Robyn Hill is a fiery adolescent maximalist and idealistic fanatic with a sincere desire for a better future, never mind a loss on the part of otherwise good people. All for the greater good is her line of thinking – she will immediately lay out her strongest cards on the table, whether she is alone or with others. Any negotiation strategy should be built around her, as stopping her, to get her to carefully check on her opponent, or to compromise on her particular position is virtually impossible.
Her whole nature is against talking and diplomatic intrigue.
She will speak out first, immediately outline her position, designate red lines and sides where she will be prepared to make concessions, then simply sit back and let her more negotiating allies play in her place. As long as her main conditions are not violated, she will be prepared to agree to anything, showing the gullibility and honesty so rare nowadays in politics. After which she will simply shake hands, making an agreement, on some level aware of its ephemerality, but at the same time fully expecting that the agreement will be fulfilled and at least her main demands will be met.
It is easy to play around with her because once she has spoken out she will not change her position or respond to intrigue – but at the same time, it is impossible to trip her up and back down. The main question of the whole summit is exactly what will become the ‘unequivocal condition’ for her.
Melissa Brown… She will simply put her signature on the outcome document, hardly even expressing her position. Vacuo has no such thing. Vacuo has no capacity for such.
Just rubbish.
Ghira Belladonna – an experienced negotiator but an inexperienced politician. He’s the only one who can be considered a 'negotiator' in the current climate, he will try to find a reasonable compromise between all parties, whilst not forgetting his objectives. But as long as the summit brings something positive for the White Fang, he will agree to compromise his demands. Genuinely believing that this summit was not the place to grab concessions for his side.
He’s the flip side of Quartz, he will initially pursue a policy of neutrality, indeed trying to comply with one, focusing more on personalities than on the states behind them. However, once the situation has reached the point of defining loyalties, he will unequivocally accept Robyn's position, sincerely believing that Mantle deserves compensation, holding the fauna' contempt for Atlas and after being taken in by Hill's speeches.
Until the situation descends to the point of pre-war confrontation, he is no more dangerous, playing for the enemy, than he is playing against them. Indeed, fit for a third party and an observer.
And, finally, Jonathan Goodman…
The main factor in our encounter.
***
Jonathan opened his gaze and then looked around at everyone present on the table. All the official delegations had left the comfort of the large round table room, except the high-ranking agents left to protect the delegates, each one specially selected as the 'most silent' of all. And those who could be easily replaced if only there was a single doubt about their loyalty.
Perhaps even, without a doubt, in advance.
Jonathan shook his head once more, after which he looked around at all those present, not rising from his seat so as not to center everyone's attention on himself. At least even more than it already did, to not pull any attention over himself as the unambiguous leader of this meeting, who has taken on the mantle of steward. In the current circumstances, only the universally recognized key player could signal the beginning of the discussion.
And only Jonathan was suitable for this role. Any tardiness on his part, would mean his insecurity in this case, and uncertainty is a crack in the overall facade, for which so conveniently anyone can play.
“So!” Jonathan belatedly realized that Robyn would have the first sentence, but the first word had to go to him.
“Let me welcome you again, formally and without cameras and the gaze of the audience – and forgo the long games of words…”
“Mantle announces secession from Atlas,” Robyn uttered, her first and foremost condition as the most punchy and central element of Jonathan's alliance. As a formal reason for the current gathering – she could not give in to her position and allow anyone else to speak in her place, and so instead of an empty attempt to stop her, Jonathan could only take advantage of Robyn's sharp and unequivocal statement, before James would utter a sharp rejection. “Glenn officially supports Mantle's decision to secede and is willing to provide its assistance in organizing a general referendum.”
“Menagerie is ready to provide outside observers and assistance in organizing the referendums,” Ghira spoke instantly.
The lot has been cast, the main condition has been stated, the outcome of the referendum, once it happens, is predetermined. It won't even have to be forged, the situation is unequivocal and supercritical for Mantle and Atlas. James has no cards in hand except an official attempt to wipe Mantle off the face of the earth, something that neither his opponents nor even his supporters will allow.
“Absolutely not," James reacted instantly, but unlike the harsh affirmation from Robyn, James' words sounded muffled and lonely in the current climate where he has no allies.
Jonathan shifted his gaze to Ozpin as he remained the main variable in this situation, if Ozpin supported James it would seriously complicate the situation. Very unlikely, but, in theory, it would also allow for a less radical view; official secession of Mantle was the middle option against Atlas. It was the soft option, just in case Ozpin supported Atlas, to grant wide autonomy, self-government and reorganize Atlas into something like a 'Kingdom of Atlas and Mantle', the best of Atlas' options.
But Ozpin only silently shifted his gaze from James to Robyn, clearly conveying the thought to outsiders that Atlas shouldn't have expected help from Vale in this battle.
“Millions of people in the streets are already torching and putting down Atlas' flags, today they're shouting ‘down with Atlas’, tomorrow they'll be shouting orders to attack.” Robyn didn't even flinch, clearly ready for James' denial, trying to quickly overwhelm the will of her political opponent with a series of arguments.
“Atlas has suppressed Mantle for decades, generations have grown and died under his rule – and Mantle is sick of bending his back.”
“Mantle can't survive without Atlas," James argued back, and Jonathan grimaced inwardly. It was the weakest argument James could make, and judging by the fact that James had used it in the first place, he really had no more decent answers.
“No army, no government, no economy…”
“I'm not going to listen to this from a former Hunter Academy.” Robyn didn't even pay attention to James' weak arguments.
“Mantle has everything he needs to survive – unlike Atlas.”
Not even James could deny those words. Atlas was in a uniquely weak position when they're speaking solely of the hovering city. Militarily it presented a uniquely difficult problem, the soaring island in the sky was immune to clumsy attempts to attack, at least without extensive air support, of which Atlas was the premier power for that.
Of course, that is, unless the enemy was Jonathan, capable of teleporting anywhere in Atlas at any moment, but then Jonathan was the exception to many rules.
The only way to capture Atlas in battle was to try to pelt it with so many corpses, so they could climb all the way to the hovering city. All while Atlas would continue to pour fire not only on the enemy trying to take the raid, but also on the ground running, trying to get close.
But Mantle didn't need to do such a thing to destroy Atlas, either. What was a formidable position in terms of battle was a logistical nightmare.
Atlas could only hold out for a couple of weeks before starting to experience starvation and communications problems. Atlas was too populated for a piece of rock floating in the sky, an internal water purification system or farms could sustain a population of a few tens of thousands, maybe a hundred in case of austerity. But how many hundreds of thousands of souls lived in Atlas?
Not a month would pass before riots broke out in Atlas, the most protected against modern methods of warfare in the form of aviation or artillery. It was also the fortress most vulnerable to the most ancient method of warfare – a siege.
And everyone knew it.
So, if Robyn announced the secession of Mantle, Atlas would have to bow to Mantle’s demand, making concession after concession, or declare a massive evacuation. Or risk turning the heavenly city of plenty into a city of hungry riots.
Mantle in turn was also not entirely self-sufficient, relying on supplies from other Solitas’ cities, but its situation was not as bleak as that of Atlas. With severe austerity, Mantle could live long enough to avoid mass starvation, perhaps even a couple of years before increasing the number of farms for crops or more mines for dust. And without any austerity measures, by the time Mantle's problems started, Atlas would have been virtually depopulated, becoming an anarchic community of hungry and mechanically or electronically deprived people.
Excluding, of course, the possibility, nay, the fact that General Ironwood would have been removed from his posts and replaced by ready-to-negotiate successors long before then.
In other words, Robyn is threatening hundreds of thousands of people with starvation… Surely we're playing for a good team here?
“With all of Atlas's resource problems, its institutions, high-precision industries, and most of the kingdom's specialists are in Atlas, and Mantle would do well to remember that.” Atlas's advisor, Quartz, spoke up after a moment, easing a little of the abrupt aggression in the negotiations. The lull, allowing Ghira to intervene, grasping at the attempt to settle the dispute, feeling distinctly uncomfortable in such a tough stance towards his opponent.
“Each side has something the other needs, there's no need to pick a fight when we can all agree on a dignified resolution to the conflict…”
Ghira, sincerely trying to save the situation – not realizing that he is trying to hold back the wind. Can we stop this farce? Come on, Jonathan, we know exactly where this is going to end.
Robyn, having heard the true, and very unpleasant for her, information, pulled away from the table a little, looking at James with considerable squeamishness in her gaze, forced to interrupt her unstoppable attack with a counter-argument that worked.
“No one is aiming for a bloodbath. This summit took place precisely in an attempt to prevent that.” Jonathan made a move, somewhat beseeching Robyn's to hold back on her overly strident attack. His move supported Ghira, but clearly maintained his position as an ally for Mantle, that is, his move was only trying to create better conditions for Mantle.
“But the situation was such that Mantle would not agree to maintaining the status quo and making token concessions. Mantle has announced his withdrawal from Atlas…”
Jonathan paused briefly, allowing the other negotiators to intervene, but even as James cast hysterical glances at his entourage, no one answered him, making it clear that this point was not in question,
“And therefore the matter is not negotiable. Atlas has ways of making life difficult for Mantle, but he has no means of keeping it, so the question of the basic principles of the summit is removed from the equation, only the concrete implementation of those principles.”
Robyn glanced at Jonathan and smiled slightly at him before turning back to look at the battlefield as he was facing the much alienated James. Who was lowering his downcast gaze to the table, slowly drawing in and exhaling through his nose as he realized that he had already lost… No, he could not win this battle in the first place.
“The question of implementation is really important.” A moment later another negotiator, Aifal, head of Mistral's foreign policy and diplomacy, maintaining a slightly cocky smile on his rejuvenated face, intervened in Jonathan's conversation.
“Mistral, as an old ally of Mantle, is happy to support his people's fight against tyranny – but also as an ally of Atlas, is in a somewhat delicate situation of choosing between his two allies.”
Jonathan frowned slightly, Aifal remained an unknown variable in Jonathan's assumptions, one whose wishes Jonathan could not specifically anticipate. Ozpin also represented a potential variable in Jonathan's plans, but Ozpin was as familiar to Jonathan as his motivation. If Ozpin saw an opportunity to strengthen Remnant as a whole, he would be willing to sacrifice the lesser for the majority, one for hundreds, millions for billions.
Aifal, on the other hand, was a strange unknown that Jonathan had not even been aware of until this moment.
Robyn, upon hearing this, also frowned slightly. Common history against prescribed commitments, Aifal showed that he sympathizes with Mantle, but he also pointed out that being on his own in the political arena, Mantle would lose its umbrella in the form of Atlas. Given that Mantle would become a newborn state without an established working state system and trained workforce, even with all the help from Glenn and Menagerie, the early years would prove the toughest test for the new state.
Will it, Jonathan? When the time comes, why delay the inevitable?
It is not the time yet.
Jonathan had little doubt that the negotiations would end exactly as he predicted, and yet he waited for the right moment before making a move.
Not before Cinder had sorted out her problems…
There was no response to these words from Jonathan's mind, even his inner voice seemed to agree with his decision.
Or are you my Avatar after all?
There was no answer to this mute question in Jonathan's mind.
***
Ozpin glanced at Aifal, trying to determine exactly what game he was playing at the moment, not paying much attention to the other negotiators. He knows full well that as the outcome of the negotiations was heading in a direction that pleased Ozpin himself, he had no need to interfere in those personally, trying to make an already working process get even better. The perfect was the enemy of the good, trying to fix already working systems and trying to improve already working processes more often led to problems than successful outcomes.
After the destruction of the first civilization, Ozpin tried to be a progressive, allowing a destroyed civilization to evolve again, overcoming centuries of progress in a matter of months… Only to see unprepared people try to combine their current societies with new technology, creating monsters that destroyed humanity with no less efficiency than the Grimm.
Having learned from all his mistakes during the heyday of the second civilization, Ozpin attempted to combine his accumulated technical knowledge with his accumulated experience, teaching, communicating, mentoring… Only to have his disciples destroy his legacy by twisting his every message, by their own hands. And with Salem finding not only his strength, but also his weakness, Ozpin had to admit the simplest of all truths in his centuries-old wisdom.
Good intentions lead to hell.
And so Ozpin, taught by bitter experience, preferred not only to repeatedly consider every choice he made, but to act only when absolutely necessary. He would allow any events, if they unfolded in a way that suited him, to unfold on their own, only slightly adjusting their outcome.
In this case, as long as the negotiations between James and Robyn were progressing in a direction satisfactory to him, toward the gradual change of Atlas, whether it was called Atlas or Mantle in the end it didn't matter. There was no need for Ozpin to act.
Dealing with Aifal, however… He’s a variable hindering the execution of his plans – what exactly was he planning?
Someone who doesn't seek tangible goals can't suffer from giving them up, either – Aifal simply liked playing with people's lives. Which means his every plan, his very position, could change in an instant, should only Aifal decide that he would get more satisfaction from the process by supporting Jonathan or James.
Not to mention that Salem also had plans of her own. Plans that Ozpin needed to prevent.
Aifal's intervention might have been perceived as his quiet support for Mantle, but in reality, Ozpin was hearing something far more dangerous than a mere political declaration.
He seemed an ally to Robyn and her camp, but at the same time, he easily pushed both sides into a new escalation of conflict. Once again, forcing Mantle and Atlas to collide head-on, now for the mantle of the true heir to the Kingdom of Mantle.
Such disputes could not be resolved by compromise, no one can be half-heir, two kings do not rule the same crown. Either Atlas would end up officially remaining ruling over Mantle, which Robyn would not go for. Or Mantle would be forced not only to secede as a separate state, but to throw down the gauntlet to Atlas, demanding its own recognition as the sole true heir to the old Kingdom. Something which in turn would require a complete review of all Atlas enclave cities.
Even if James agreed to this, with no way out, many other cities might refuse to recognize the new power, in other words, Aifal…
Aifal wants to provoke a civil war throughout Solitas.
Mantle's rebellion could have spread beyond the city's borders, but Ozpin made sure that didn't happen. A coup in Atlas would have to happen bloodlessly enough, after which the rest of the former Atlas cities would recognize Mantle’s supremacy of power, for lack of alternatives if nothing else.
But Salem had guessed that the loss of Atlas would not be too much of a problem on a Remnant-wide scale. A civil war on a quarter of the inhabited lands on the other hand?
Ozpin caught Aifal's gaze for a moment, who smiled back a little at him.
If only I knew the semblance he possesses…
Aifal had trained in Haven, and clearly possessed a semblance, he should have possessed one. But Aifal had not only been stingy about removing any possible mention of it, he had made it impossible to determine his semblance from the trail of people that he had removed in an attempt to hide information about him.
Aifal knew how to play this game – and by doing so he only complicated an already difficult situation even more.
“Atlas won't go down in history simply because Mantle has a mind to abandon it, the other cities don't recognize Mantle's actions," James' voice caused Ozpin to shift his gaze again, it seems that Aifal’s play was unfolding, with James the unwitting puppet.
“It's not for the Academy to talk about how hard it is to throw the Kingdom off its throne.” Robyn spat back quickly, forcing Jonathan to intervene himself again in an attempt to cool the fervor of the two.
"Everyone around this table understands that no one is seeking bloodshed – an attempt to keep Mantle from achieving their goals will not stop the people of Mantle, but will only cause general chaos.”
“So Atlas just needs to wipe the slate clean and get on its knees?” James threw an exasperated look back, but that was the end of the arsenal available to him.
“Not that Atlas has many options that don't include all-out civil war,” Quartz made an important remark, trying to sound defeated but clearly supporting Jonathan's position.
“Wouldn't such a drastic decision cause uproar at the top and riots in other cities in any case?” And of course, Aifal intervened a moment later, once again pitting the two states against each other.
Ozpin frowned slightly, then found Leonardo looking at him with a mute question as to what exactly he was supposed to do and what position to support. Ozpin thought for a moment, trying to imagine exactly what it was necessary to do to prevent Aifal from pitting the two negotiators against each other, bringing them to the boiling point followed by civil war.
Before nodding silently.
I'm sorry, James.
“Vale officially supports Mantle's decision to secede and is willing to provide observers and help organize the referendum.”
