Slicer Sabre
patreon
Predictions for the next Olympic Cycle- Men's Sabre
🕑 Added 2024-08-19 14:59:48 +0000 UTCKOREA- Hold
The last cycle proved challenging for Korea, and at times it felt like their era of dominance was over. As Kim Junho burned out and as age eventually caught up with Kim Junghwan, the avengers were in desperate need of young blood.
Fortunately they were able to find some new energy in the likes of Park Sangwon and Do Gyeongdong. For neither of these two, despite never medalling in any individual events they have both performed incredibly well in team events. I am confident that both Do and Park will make a podium at some point over the next four years.
Oh Sanguk has now won every medal that could possibly be worth winning. At this point he may as well switch to foil or epee and restart the game completely. At his best Oh is unstoppable, however I worry that he won't be able to maintain this level of dominance across the course of a full season. Since Tokyo he has dealt with several injuries, even in Paris his ankle didn't seem 100%. Obviously if he manages his injuries well he can still compete for the main titles, but I can't see him dominating the world cups as he once did.
In his last few seasons Gu Bongil may have been the shadow of his former self, however he has still maintained a standard most fencers could only dream of. Only a fencer of Gu's calibre could be disappointed by a season with three last 16s, a last 8 and a team Olympic gold. At this stage in his career, Gu will no doubt be looking at the example set by Kim Junghwan. Should he retire on a high, or can he squeeze a few more medals?
Even taking the aforementioned fencers out of the equation, Korea have deep reserves of talent who could all come good at any moment- Kim Jaewon, Sung Hyeonnmo, and Song Eungyun have all showed a lot of potential.
USA- Hold
Whilst USA certainly had a disappointing tournament in Paris, however next time they will have the advantage and extra motivation of competing at home in Los Angeles. USA is never lacking strong juniors but there often seems to be a lack of retention as they transition into seniors. This time however the depth in talent is so large that I can't see USA fielding a squad in LA that isn't going to be a favourite for the medals.
Colin Heathcock is clearly a generational talent and perhaps it was a bit much to predict him winning the gold in Paris given his age, but I still believe that he is destined for greatness. This cycle however will be very different for him as he moves away from Orleans to Harvard.
The last cycle was interesting for Eli Dershwitz. On the one hand his only individual world cup medal since 2020 was a Bronze at Tunis 2023, on the other hand he made history by winning the world championships in Milan 2023. Ultimately, it's not world cup medals that Dershwitz lacks, it's Olympic medals he needs and he will be very hungry after a third disappointment in 2024.
The big problem with the USA maybe the internal tensions that result from the referee manipulation allegations. Whilst in the women's sabre there were members of the team who were in direct opposition during the arbitration, on the men's side the team seemed untroubled by the allegations made against Mitchell Saron. In Paris, all four fencers on the USA men's sabre team were former, present or future Harvard students. Whilst this level of coherence may have eased tensions in Paris, it is not guaranteed that the 2028 squad will have the same commonality unifying them.
Putting the allegations aside, Mitchell Saron is still a strong fencer and as things stand has a decent shot at making the 2028 team, however there will be stiff competition. 21 year old Filip Dolegiewicz, the reserve in Paris, won his first major medal last season and continues to show promise. Behind him at 17 years old are Will Morrill and Cody Ji who have both shown enormous potential. Whatever happens in the next four seasons, I believe that there is enough talent in the USA to maintain their current level.
HUNGARY- Drop
The latest era of sabre fencing was defined by the Hungary-Korea rivalry. In 2023, after so many defeats the Hungarians finally broke the Korean's grip on the world team title only for the Koreans to once again defeat them in yet another final, this time at the Olympics. For ten years the Hungarian team has had the most predictable lineups- Szilagyi, Szatmari, Gemesi and Decsi. This iconic quartet have brought consistent success for Hungary over the years, but maybe this stability has come at a cost- aside from Krisztian Rabb, very few younger Hungarians have had the opportunity to build experience in team events. Whilst Szatmari, currently 31 years old, still has many years ahead of him, Gemesi (37), Decsi (41) and Szilagyi (34) are all past their peak. At least in the near term, it doesn't look like there are many young Hungarians who will be able to replace them. Additionally there was some controversy with the Olympic selections- the former national coach, Andras Decsi, resigned when Rabb was selected over his brother Tamas.
Ultimately, I don't believe Hungary will be able to perform as strongly as they have been over the last ten years.
FRANCE- Hold
France have finally emerged from a 15 year slump in men's sabre, winning their first Olympic medal since 2008 with a bronze in the team event in Paris. Bolade Apithy will almost certainly retire and he will definitely be missed, however it feels like the French have done more to prepare for this transition than the Hungarians have. Over the last few seasons the French have constantly changed their lineups at team events giving opportunities for many fencers to gain vital experience. Admittedly a lot of those fencers were the "middle children"- Seitz, Lambert, Colleau; who are unlikely to take France much further. However there will still be strong options in Jean-Phillipe Patrice and Bibi.
I believe that Sebastien Patrice will be one of the main characters of this new era of fencing. His performance in the team event in Paris was remarkable and his world cup victory in Madrid shows that he has no limits.
Pianfetti was the first to burst on to the scene with his world championship silver medal in 2022, however the last season proved difficult for him. Perhaps he has suffered from his own success as his rather unique style has been more widely studied, but even then he has managed to hold on to his place in the top 16.
A big factor in France's future will depend on whether they can avoid the usual dramas about selections and coaches. With Christian Bauer moving his academy to Italy things could return to normal but that still leaves the divide between Anstett's Paris Sabre Academy and the INSEP.
EGYPT- Hold
Egypt have had one of the biggest success stories over the last Olympic cycle. They built on their qualification at Tokyo and have become a team capable of beating any. They one their first team world cup medal with a silver in Madrid and have a decent chance at winning more.
Ziad Elsissy made history as he was the first African fencer in men's sabre to be ranked number one in the world and narrowly missed out on a medal in Paris, losing in the Bronze medal match to Samele. Whilst he isn't exactly young, he still has many competitive years ahead of him and will be heavily motivated to push for a medal in 2028 after missing out so narrowly this summer.
Mohamed Amer has been very consistent over the years, and now that he is back in the top 16 in the rankings he is likely to carry this momentum forwards.
(Fencers ranked in the top 16 are given a bye to the 64 at world cups which is a major advantage)
Adham Moataz is also in the top 16, and at the age of 21 still has a lot of room to improve.
Like most countries, Egypt may have to deal with some off-field issues- from what I hear, the selection for the fourth fencer in Paris was a complicated affaire.
IRAN- Drop
I feel like Iran's current strength will be one of the things that this era of sabre will be remembered for. It reminds me a little bit of Belarus, a team who were once a major player in the 2000s and early 2010s but have since faded to near irrelevancy. Iran only ever tends to send four or five fencers at a time to world cups, and Pakdaman, Rahbari, Baher and Fotouhi are now all in their 30s. Maybe these four can keep going until 2028, but without any signs of fresh talents bursting through the ranks Iran's days may be numbered.
I also believe that in order to stay well ranked across a whole cycle, more than four fencers are needed. It is almost certain that at some point one of the main fencers will be injured or unable to compete so it is crucial to have extra reserves of talent to dip into. Currently, it doesn't look like Iran has that depth.
Having said that, it is not implausible that Iran could maintain their high level for another cycle, so maybe my predictions are a little premature.
ITALY- Uncertain
Italy have been in a complicated situation throughout the last Olympic cycle. On the one hand they have had some very exciting young prospects burst on to the scene in the likes of Gallo, Torre and Neri. However on the other hand, the "old guard" of Samele, Curatoli and Berre have still been strong choices for selection. Cavaliere has also had a strong few seasons too, making selection decisions even harder. On paper it felt like the Italians should have been able to put together a good blend of youth and experience but ultimately their season has been a disappointment.
I feel like there are two possible paths for Italy now- either they bounce back over the next couple of seasons as their talented squad re-find their confidence, or they fall into crisis as their relatively low seeding makes it difficult to progress through the early stages of competitions.
Another factor could be the arrival of Christian Bauer- as he moves his academy to Padua, bringing with him not only his enormous expertise but also additional fencers to train with. In France, Bauer's academy at times clashed with the traditionally centralised system. However perhaps Italy's club-based system will work more naturally with an independent academy like Bauer's.
CANADA- (Soft) Hold
Despite finishing last in Paris, the Olympics have boosted Canada's ranking significantly given that they were one of only 8 teams to qualify. Canada's fate is often directly tied to that of the USA since when the Americans qualify for the Olympics as one of the top four ranked teams, this frees up the Pan-American spot. As things stand USA look likely to stay within the top four, so Canada could have a relatively easy route to Los Angeles. With Olympic qualification in sight, the Canadians will have strong motivations for the next few four years.
Fares Arfa pulled off one of the most surprising performances in Paris, first by ending Szilagyi's legendary Olympic streak and then taking out Bolade Apithy to make the last eight. He also performed very well in the team event, finishing with the third highest indicator out of all fencers in the event. Now ranked 20th in the world, and with the top 16 in sight, Arfa could really build from this spectacular result.
Shaul Gordon is a fencer who is capable of beating anyone in the world, but at the age of 30 there may be pressures to focus on life outside of fencing.
There are also some younger Canadians like Cauchon and Desrosiers who have potential to grow into serious senior fencers, but at this stage it is hard to tell for sure.
ROMANIA- UP!!!!! 📈
This is the team I am most excited to watch over the next four years. After a long dark age, Romanian sabre looks like it is coming back. Romania have had so many talented junior fencers, that statistically some of them are sure to break through as seniors: Razvan Ursachi and George Dragomir at 26 and 25 years old, have already started to take some big scalps but, behind them there is a horde of 20 somethings that have all had solid results as Juniors.
The most exciting prospect for Romania will be 18 year old Vlad Covaliu. The son of the 2000 Oympic champion, Mihai Covaliu, Vlad has already claimed the Junior World title and made his first L32 at a senior world cup last season.
Radu Nitu has also showed potential making a senior l32 last season in his final year as a junior.
GERMANY- Drop
The last Olympic cycle was very tough for Germany. After Tokyo three of their most important fencers (Max Hartung, Peter Wagner and Richard Huebers) all retired, leaving only Matyas Szabo to manage the transition to a younger squad. To begin with they held on to their ranking, and with Colin Heathcock poised to make his senior breakthrough under German colours things weren't looking so bad for Germany. However the Heathcock's decided to switch to representing the USA and gradually Germany fell down the rankings.
I haven't seen any signs that Matyas Szabo might be retiring, and at 33 he still has another cycle left in him. It is a mystery to me how Szabo hasn't won more silverware. His quality on the piste is obvious, yet he only has a handful of individual medals to his name. I really hope he can find the missing ingredient over the next four years as when he can be an absolute joy to watch.
There is still a chance of recovery for Germany, they still occasionally get good results as a team (4th place at the 2024 Euros for example). Their younger fencers are also regularly making last 16s at world cups, they just seem to lack consistency right now. The difficulty they face now is that their low seeding means that in order to make the last eight they will have to beat teams as strong as Italy very early in the competition.
JAPAN- Up
The lack of Olympic qualification means Japan have dropped considerably in the rankings compared to last season when they were 8th, so like Germany they face an uphill battle to improve their seeding. However Japan have been producing a lot of really strong Juniors who are starting to make their way into seniors.
Even if you remove the more experienced fencers like, Streets, Yoshida and Hoshino, there is enough quality in the likes of Kokubo, Tsumori and Kato to make up for it. Overall, Japan topped the medal table for fencing in Paris. Whatever structures they have in place are clearly working as they have medalled in all three weapons.
CHINA- Uncertain
I gave up trying to make predictions about China a long time ago. Once the fencing powerhouse of Asia, they have since been over taken by Korea, Japan and even Hong Kong. After Rio 2016 I felt there were rumblings of a Chinese resurgence, as they brought in foreign coaches and had some success at the Junior World Championships. However they haven't come anywhere near returning to their level in 2008, when Zhong Man one Olympic Gold in Beijing.
I was kind of expecting some decent result from Shen Chenpeng at some point, and I even predicted him beating Gallo in Paris (one of the few predictions that I got right). However I didn't expect him to make it as far as the last eight, where he lost 15-14 to Ferjani. This result has pushed him up to 18th in the rankings which practically speaking guarantees him a bye to the 64 in the next world cup, given that at least two of the top 16 are likely to retire.
China could cause some big upsets over the next few years, but equally they could continue to languish in the L16.
UKRAINE- Drop
The highlight for the Ukrainian men's sabre team over the last cycle was their silver medal performance in the team event at the 2022 euros. Whilst they may be capable of pulling off another similar result, things are only going to get harder for Ukraine as their squad ages and the war hinders the development of new fencers within Ukraine.
Darii Lukashenko brings some hope for them. He has already established himself as a top junior and at the age of 18 has made his first last 64 at a senior world cup.
Vasyl Humen, aged 22, was also an interesting prospect but he didn't fence internationally last season.
GEORGIA- Hold
Georgia have the potential to win medals in team events. We saw this in 2018 when they came fourth at the team event at the world championships in Wuxi. Whilst they might occasionally beat some of the stronger teams, the priority for Georgia is very clear- Sandro Bazadze.
When Sandro doesn't feel like taking the team event seriously then Georgia struggle. And since Sandro so frequently medals in individual events, he often seems to lack motivation to carry the team on the third day of world cups. Maybe if the younger Georgians develop and show a greater potential for Georgia to regularly medal in team events, then focus could switch to team events and Georgia could become more of a contender.
SPAIN- Drop
Over the last decade Spain have consistently produced some very good cadet and junior fencers. Over the last cycle they have had some success converting that success into seniors as they have made a couple of L8s and beaten Germany a couple of times.
20 year old Santiago Madrigal has had some excellent results, including a bronze medal at Padua. He is definitely one of the fencers I am most looking forward to watching, however a team needs more than one strong fencer. Whilst Hernandez and Fernandez have had some decent results, from what I hear Spanish fencers might not receive enough support for them to be successful over the long term. Perhaps this can be seen in the retirement of Iñaki Bravo- a very solid fencer who seems to have hung up his sabre at the young age of 26.
TURKIYE- Up
Turkiye are in a great position right now. Enver Yildirim is in great form, and at 28 he still has another cycle in him at least. Additionally they have some really promising juniors coming through. In the last cycle they won two major medals in men's team sabre- a Bronze at the 2022 Euros and then again in 2024.
Aslan (18), Cagalyan (19) and Kalendar (21) all made last 64s at senior events last season, but the most exciting prospect to me is 17 year old Yaman Furkan who has made multiple L64s when he was still just a cadet.
I would definitely expect Turkiye to climb up the rankings over the next few years.
KAZAKHSTAN- Up
I feel like Kazakhstan have gotten unlucky over the last season. In my opinion they were absolutely robbed in the team event at the Budapest world cup where they lost to Hungary in a match where every remotely close call seemed to go to the Hungarians. At the Asian Championships in Kuwait, Sarkissyan was knocked out by Yousef Alshamlan- I'm sure you can guess what happened there.
Perhaps the Kazakhs are over reliant on Sarkissyan, but they have a decent number of fencers in their early 20s who have now had enough experience on the senior circuit to start getting strong result.
HONG KONG- UP!!!!
Hong Kong have been massive under performers this last season. Some people have blamed competition with a certain rival in the Asian zone, but now that we are outside of the Olympic qualifying period then those concerns should be lessened.
Fencing has grown considerably in Hong Kong since Cheung Ka Long's Olympic victory in 2021. They have invested in foreign coaches from both France and Korea which could make an interesting combination. Hong Kong fencers have always been technically clean, but I feel they sometimes seemed to lack the "grit" required to make it to the next level. Whilst the older fencers like Low and Ho will still be valuable assets, I am excited to see how of the younger generations will fare.
Overall I think Hong Kong have a lot of potential
Comments
Slicer Sabre
What do you think? Which teams will be the favourites to qualify for LA 2028?
