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New Script: Red Germany
🕑 Added 2024-12-14 19:44:20 +0000 UTCThe Second World War was the most decisive thing that happened in the past century. But what if it went completely differently—what if Germany went in the opposite direction after the First World War? It almost did, which I’ll talk about in a second, but really, the only plausible way for a communist revolution to succeed in Germany is if the respectable German middle-class wasn’t as scared of communism as it was in real life—so, Russia’s communist revolution would need to fail.
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But let’s go over some real history for a second. Despite being very important, American schools don’t really talk about this.
Nearing the end of the First World War, the major warring empires were exhausted and losing morale. Russia was the first to drop – in March 1917, Petrograd, the capital of Russia, erupted into major riots. Soldiers joined the rioters and the government quickly crumbled; the tsar abdicated. Despite taking place in March, we call this the February Revolution—long story—anyways, it marked the end of the Russian Empire. What came next?
Well that’s kind of the main issue. On one side was the Provisional Government, led by a prince who implemented major reforms and appointed liberals to his cabinet. On the other side was the Petrograd Soviet, a council of socialist workers and soldiers that wanted more radical reform. Vladimir Lenin and his Bolsheviks were the most notable faction pressing for a complete takeover of the government. You might’ve heard of him.
Over the next months the government and the Soviet wrestled for power. In July, the liberals decided to ditch the Provisional Government to the moderate socialists. Meanwhile, new riots erupted across Petrograd, escalating to violence. The Bolsheviks did not want the riots, but couldn’t stop them. The government used the opportunity to crack down on Lenin’s Bolsheviks, teaming up with far-right paramilitary forces; Lenin himself fled to Finland, while other revolutionaries, like Trotsky, were arrested.
And, after all this chaos Alexander Kerensky of the Socialist-Revolutionary Party took control. Unlike the Bolsheviks, Kerensky wanted a more moderate socialist government—he teamed up with the liberals.
So, you might be wondering if this is alternate history yet. Nope, this is still real life—the Provisional Government had the chance to crush the Bolshevik revolution in its cradle. Why didn’t it?
Well, in September, General Kornilov marched against the capital, apparently to crush the Petrograd Soviet once and for all. But Kerensky saw this as a threat to his own power; he teamed up with the Bolsheviks, giving them weapons to fight off Kornilov. But one problem: Kornilov never made it to Petrograd.
Turns out Russia has a long history of coup attempts that just fizzle out [clip of Prigozhin]
Anyways, Kerensky basically armed his largest rivals for power for no good reason. The Bolsheviks gained control of the workers’ councils, Lenin returned to Russia, and in November they launched a revolution, toppling the provisional government. Lenin didn’t take control of Russia immediately; several years of civil war followed, but ultimately the anti-Bolshevik forces were too divided and lacked support from the majority of the population—they lost, and eventually Lenin forged the Soviet Union.
So, what could have gone differently?
Well, before we get in that, let’s talk about what happened in Germany in real life. It’s really very funny, because both countries went through basically the same events.
Let’s fast-forward to 1918. Despite Russia crumbling into civil war, Germany was exhausted as well, with the high command telling the Kaiser it was time to cut a deal and make peace. The Kaiser appointed a new liberal chancellor in early October and later that month the Reichstag passed a major constitutional reform, seizing power for the legislature.
But one problem: the navy high command wanted to fight one last desperate battle against Britain, hoping to go down fighting. Believe it or not the sailors didn’t want to sacrifice themselves for no good reason, so in early November they launched a mutiny. Throughout the next few weeks the mutiny turned to a workers’ revolution that spread across Germany like a fire—the Kaiser was deposed and peace made. Soon, however, the surviving factions in Germany began to wrestle for power: the far-left Workers' and Soldiers' Councils versus the center-left social democrat government led by Friedrich Ebert versus the remaining military forces.
Sound familiar? Germany had a February Revolution of its own, just in November 1918.
Like in Russia, however, fighting soon erupted. In late December, a group of sailors called the People’s Navy Division launched another mutiny in response to a crackdown from Ebert’s government. On Christmas, Ebert ordered an attack on the sailors, but it was repelled—this marked the split between the center-left and far-left.
On January 4, 1919, tensions erupted after the government fired Berlin’s chief of police, who was sympathetic to the far-left. In Berlin, over the next days, a massive protest gathered, with revolutionaries seizing key buildings across the city. In that protest was the kernel of a communist revolution.
While people like to call this the Spartacist Uprising, after the communist Spartacus League, the League themselves actually just wanted a large demonstration at the time and not an armed revolution, and they weren’t actually in charge of the protests. In fact the leaders of the Spartacus League were divided, with Karl Liebknecht hopping on board the revolution train and Rosa Luxemburg left behind shaking her fist in the dust.
In fact, this internal division is exactly why the far-left as a whole completely failed to capitalize on the mass movement; while the people took control of the city, the leaders debated back and forth what to actually do about it. Some communist leaders wanted to negotiate with Ebert, others wanted to depose him, and this lack of decision caused the protests to fizzle out and gave Ebert time to organize a response; government forces, together with the far-right Freikorps, crushed the Spartacists and ended what could have been a January Revolution. Does this sound familiar? That’s right, Germany’s Spartacist Uprising mirrored Russia’s July Days, when the government cracked down on the Bolsheviks and sent Lenin fleeing to Finland. There was even an attempted military coup in Germany afterwards that failed, just like the one in Russia.
But Germany, unlike Russia, morphed into a liberal democracy. Now of course the forces of the radical right gradually built up their strength and, eventually, seized power, but that happened a decade afterward. Why did Russia have a communist revolution but not Germany?
Well, like I said, in Germany the government actually followed through with the crackdown on their radical-left; the far-right killed Liebknecht and Luxemburg. On the other hand, Kerensky in Russia arrested Trotsky but spared his life, while Lenin escaped to Finland with Stalin’s help. Then, if you remember, Kerensky strengthened the Bolsheviks to fight off the far-right.
So, the answer is clear: if Kerensky instead full-heartedly lent his weight behind destroying the Bolsheviks in July 1917, and if Lenin was just a bit less lucky and was captured, than the government—or the far-right forces in Russia at least—could have destroyed the Bolsheviks by wiping out Lenin, Stalin, and Trotsky in one fell swoop.
What happens next?
Kerensky, allied with the moderates, begins forming a democratic republic with various socialist policies. But just because the Bolsheviks are destroyed doesn’t mean Kerensky will rule Russia for half a decade like Ebert in Germany. The country slides into anarchy and civil war, with huge swathes falling to feuding armies or ideological radicals—a new Warlord Era for Russia.
Meanwhile, Germany goes through its own revolution. With the Bolsheviks failing to take power in Russia and the capital held instead by the moderate socialists, many more middle-class Germans in Berlin endorse the Spartacists. The Spartacists, meanwhile, are spooked by the death of Lenin and prepare much more for any revolution. In January, the larger riots drive Ebert to resign, but the Spartacists don’t have the strength yet to seize power; wisely, they wait.
As the communist build their strength, the fragile German government is unable to hold back the Freikorps. When the paramilitary forces massacre striking workers in Berlin in April, the government attempts to disband some of their units—this triggers a mutiny, which builds into a far-right coup. The military seizes control of Berlin and establishes a new, nationalist government. The social democrats flee the capital.
With the country descending into civil war, then the communists launch their revolution. Workers strike across the country, and professional revolutionaries seize control of key government buildings in Berlin, Munich, and elsewhere.
So, by the end of April 1919, Germany has fallen into a three-way civil war. Fighting and chaos build over the summer.
With Germany shattering apart, the Entente powers go on the march, pulling soldiers from fighting communists in Russia so they can instead fight communists in Germany. But most western soldiers are unwilling to actually shoot anyone; they’re exhausted from war and sympathize with the socialists. Ironically, the Allies cause more harm to the social democrats than good by humiliating them with the Treaty of Versailles; the Freikorps turn on the social democrats.
As the center and right fight, the socialists gain the support of most German workers by promising them substantial political power and a return to order. The Freikorps and the social democrats weaken. Several years of bloodshed follow, but by the end of 1921, the war has mostly come to a close. Except for the far west, which is organized into a French-ruled Rhine Republic, most of the country is run by revolutionary socialist forces. Karl Liebknecht, the most active leader of the revolution, summons delegates from the many councils to Berlin in November, on the third anniversary of the end of the monarchy. There, they establish the Socialist Republic of Germany. The red banner flies high over Berlin.
Throughout the 1920s, President and Chairman of the Communist Party Karl Liebknecht cements his control over the country. Red Germany nationalizes industries and cracks down on domestic opposition. But, it isn’t strong enough to toss out the Treaty of Versailles… yet.
While the communists unite Germany, Kerensky and his moderate socialists fail to unite Russia; they lose control of Belarus and Ukraine, while nearly every election has some paramilitary band or another marching on Petrograd.
Anyways, the fall of the Heart of Europe to communism boosts the Red Scare in the capitalist countries; in Italy, Benito Mussolini seizes control of course, while France nearly falls to a far-right coup before a Popular Front of socialists and communists takes control of the country. In Russia, a fragile left-wing government suffers a crisis: General Alexander Kolchak, the leader of the Russian far-right, returns to the country from exile in Italy with a new appreciation for fascism. Kolchak rallies veterans, nationalists, and populists against Kerensky’s regime and topples it in a coup in 1937.
In Spain, civil war erupts between the right and the left, with Germany and France sending aid to the Republicans and Italy sending aid to Generalissimo Francisco Franco. The war goes on for years until Franco wins; Germany’s war industry has not recovered since the First World War, while Italy’s has.
In 1939, Mussolini hosts diplomats from Spain, Portugal, Russia, Hungary, Austria, and Japan, establishing the Anti-Communist Pact. All these countries were disappointed by the results of the First World War, want to gobble up additional territory, and make Communist Germany pay for it. France, seeing Germany now as an ally against the revisionist powers to the south, signs several treaties of friendship. France is still reluctant to greenlight any public violation of the Treaty of Versailles, but turns a blind eye when German begins to remilitarize in secret.
Across the channel, Britain watches these events with shock, confusion, and a little bit of schadenfreude. The British elite detest communism but view fascism as a major threat as well, so Britain’s foreign policy in the 1930s is to wish everyone a jolly good time.
Seeing Germany remilitarize, Russia realizes it only has a few years to seize as much land as it can; in 1940 it invades Belarus, Ukraine, and the Baltics, taking one country after another without much issue, since each one has major problems with stability. Poland alone remains as a bulwark between Germany and Russia. Mussolini, meanwhile, occupies Albania and plans to reforge the Roman Empire.
Europe is a powder keg, on the verge once more of all-out war, and it only needs a match:
That comes in January 1941 after a disputed election in France. General Philippe Pétain marches on Paris at the head of an army of far-right veterans. The French military attempts to stop him but is driven back after street-fighting, and after a bunch join him; France crumbles into chaos as Pétain seizes control of Paris in a shock. He severs ties with Socialist Germany while proposing an alliance with Mussolini. But, like Spain, the French left won’t go down without a fight—war erupts across the country.
Germany, seeing its only ally in Europe fall, mobilizes its army and marches into France. Pétain declares war on Germany and is joined by the Anti-Communist Pact—war is back in Europe.
Despite having stronger industries than Italy, Germany’s war machine is still very weak; during the winter of 1941, it makes little progress in France. With Germany distracted, Russia takes the opportunity to invade Poland. Despite hoping to march across the width of the country in a month, Russia finds Poland harder to conquer than Belarus.
As summer arrives in 1942, Germany begins to make progress in France, passing its old frontlines of the First World War. But two events slow down the advance of socialism: first, Prime Minister Churchill rallies the British Parliament to provide much greater aid to France, and, second, in a shock, Italian and Austrian soldiers invade Germany from the south. Italian troops enter the suburbs of Munich before being slowed to a stop.
As summer turns to fall, Germany loses ground in France but repels the invasion of Bavaria, crossing the border into Austria. A major insurrection in Vienna against the war helps its cause; as winter arrives, German troops wipe out Austrian defenses and occupy Vienna. British diplomats threaten Germany not to annex the republic; instead, Germany puts in charge a socialist government and refocuses its southern army to guarding the Alps from Italian advances and to reinforce soldiers in France. Meanwhile, Warsaw falls to Russia, opening up another front for Germany; German troops quickly occupy the rest of Poland for “safekeeping.”
In 1943, Germany’s industrial output surpasses all of its enemies put together; German bullets, German tanks, German planes push back French forces. Then, in the summer, Paris rises up against Pétain. His troops massacre striking workers, but the revolution washes across France; the army crumbles apart and German tanks occupy Paris and raise the red banner before the end of the year.
While Britain pressures Germany to make peace with the Anti-Communist League, Germany sees itself on the verge of establishing a Communist Union across all of Europe; after spending the winter restoring its stockpiles, Germany launches a major advance in southern France, hurling back the Italian army and seizing Marseilles. Over the next several months it bombards Spanish and Italian positions in the mountains, but despite its best efforts it can’t break through. Mussolini begs Kolchak to join the war, but the Russian dictator can tell there’s nothing he can do.
In January 1944, the two warring sides sign a peace treaty.
Germany and France dominate central Europe; through a series of referendums, Austria, and Danzig vote to join Germany, while Germany puts a socialist regime in charge of its Polish areas. Soon, Germany and France, at this point both governed by radical socialist factions, forge the new Union of Sovereign Communist Republics, an alliance whose purpose is to eventually form a true federation.
They’re balanced out by the Anti-Communist Pact, of course, which includes the usual suspects. Britain, seeing Europe divided, takes the opportunity and strengthens its ties with the other countries in Europe, including Yugoslavia, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
So, beginning in the 1950s, a Cold War has arrived in Europe, pitting liberals against communists against nationalists. Czechoslovakia, surrounded on all sides by enemies and with a large German population, might just be the home to a crisis that turns the cold war hot.
Who do you think would win this Cold War? Comment below to let me know, and if you like this video don’t forget to subscribe and check out my Patreon. For a buck a month you can get your name in the credits. Thanks to those who already do…
