Kamikaze Cash
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$12K Challenge's first trade: SPY puts
🕑 Added 2025-04-08 15:29:43 +0000 UTCIn the video, you'll see that I opened 2x 4/30 SPY $470p for $5.60/ea.
In plain language, I opened 2 SPY puts at the $470 strike expiring on April 30, each one costing $560 for a total of $1,120.
My thesis: The market is reacting way too positively today. I believe this is a bit of a dead cat bounce and overexuberance that some countries are willing to negotiate tariffs.
But the big issue is tariffs with China. Neither the US nor Chinese economies can function in a 104% tariff environment. The Chinese ban on films, embargo on some rare earth metals, and Trump banning Chinese-American relationships for government employees is icing on the cake.
I expect this rally to fade, and I want to benefit from the resumed decline.
My plan: I usually don't buy puts, especially if VIX is around 40. This is a bigger gamble than I am used to.
I intend to hold one of these puts only briefly and take advantage of the immediate fade down. I expect that I will sell by the end of the week.
But the reason I bought 2 contracts is so that I can hold at least one until a decisive leg downward. I think there is a greater than 50% chance that we have another -4% day this week, and will decline into next week too. I want to have at least 1 long put to benefit from another leg down.
The big unknown: Will Trump really put a 104% tariff on Chinese goods on April 9? I have a lot riding on this. If he backs down, it will be seen as major weakness. If he implements the tariffs, the market will struggle to make sense of how we proceed as an economy from here. That decision will likely make or break this trade.
Edit: 1:20 pm ETS, I closed one of these puts for $980 vs my buy price of $520. My gain is $460. I intend to hold the other long put until a decisive leg down.
