Ben Taylor
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MVP thoughts
🕑 Added 2019-04-07 18:41:27 +0000 UTCMy latest video asks the question: Is Giannis Antetokounmpo now the best player in basketball?
I'm not entirely sure yet, and I always find it tricky to pinpoint emerging players without a larger sample (and, at the least, the playoffs). But I am pretty sure he's one of the three best players this year, and I think he's better than co-MVP frontrunner James Harden. (I'll get into why in the future -- it has a lot to do with defense.)
Even so, Harden is a perfectly fine MVP choice. He wouldn't be my choice, because I tend to default to the better player, but the idea of Harden winning MVP isn't offensive to me. I mean, it's entirely based on offense, but it doesn't offend the senses.
I never put too much stock in MVP results, not because the poll is meaningless, but mainly because it's not well defined. I've seen people defend this, saying "it's left open to interpretation to spark interest and discussion." But when people are speaking to different ideas -- "what do you value in an MVP?" -- the discussion isn't about basketball, it's about semantics.
This has always rung hollow to me. The league could create a clearer definition and the debate would still be furious. But what I'd really like to see is an Offensive Player of the Year award, which, ironically, I believe would shine a brighter light on the value of defense. Acknowledging the best offensive with a high profile award might allow us as to acknowledge that the best players aren't synonymous with the best offensive players.
As of right now, there's a lot of uncertainty about what an MVP is. Is it...
- best player?
- best player on a competing team?
- player who helps team most?
- player who helps a team most near the top of the standings?
- player who you will remember in 5 years? (Wouldn't it be Most Memorable Player then?)
Despite some ambiguities, media voters have historically viewed the MVP with a similar narrative-driven rubric: Is a star player having a better year than expected? Has he won recently? Has he ever won?
If the answers are "yes," "no," and "no," then the last step is to check his team record. If the team is at the top of the standings, this is probably the MVP! Especially if another MVP-worthy player has won recently.
Personally, I take the award with a grain of salt and appreciate all of the MVP-level players in a season -- heck, some of the very best individual seasons in league history didn't win MVP because of the above rubric! (see: 1990, Michael Jordan) For me, I'd have Giannis as the 2019 MVP and Harden as the OPOY (Offensive Player of the Year) and start sketching out my All-Postseason team and Playoff MVP.
At least we have those, right?
Comments
I don't think there should be any absolute rule about needing to make CF, but effectively it seems like that would almost always be the case. I think this may originally be Simmons' idea, i seem to remember him doing this (or something quite similar) in his Book of Basketball.
Ooh -- the closest I have is a project I did about 10 years ago going back and ranking "Player of the Year" for each season. I could give it a bit more thought -- that might make interesting content going forward. (Does it seem fair to only give it to players who at least made the CF?)
Do you have a record of who you would have given playoff MVP (or all-postseason team) in previous years? Would be interested in seeing that. Naming them starting this year would be interesting as well.
I suppose the more you value in-season production, the more minutes becomes a factor. I do give a small boost to players who can clearly log heavier minutes, but I'm not sure how much that applies here. Giannis was at 37 mpg last year, although it's possible that he would be slightly less effective if asked to play more.
Interestingly, it seems like the minutes difference is likely *not* due to Giannis being in more blowouts. It's actually that Harden on average plays an extra 2 minutes over Giannis in the 1st and 3rd quarters. MPG: Total / 1Q / 2Q / 3Q / 4Q (leaving out OT, so the quarters don't exactly sum to the total) Harden: 36.9 / 10.1 / 8.0 / 10.6 / 8.2 Giannis: 32.9 / 8.1 / 8.1 / 8.6 / 8.5 If the difference was all due to blowouts, you'd expect to see it mostly in the 4th quarter. But in fact Giannis plays slightly more in the 4th than Harden! A bit of this is Harden playing more minutes when CP3 was out (he was up to 39.0 a game), but even if you take out those 17 games the pattern holds. Source: <a href="https://stats.nba.com/players/traditional/?sort=PTS&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&Period=1" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">https://stats.nba.com/players/traditional/?sort=PTS&dir=-1&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&Period=1</a>
That explains some of it, for sure. But last I checked, even in close games Harden averages more minutes per game. Not sure how to adjust for that, but it seems like it should factor in somehow.
DryPenguin
How much of the difference in minutes is "Giannis sitting because he and his team were so dominant that he could take the 4th off" vs "Hardens team is playing down to the wire and can't function without him"?
To what extent should minutes played factor into this MVP discussion? I think there’s a reasonable argument to be made that Giannis has been the better player “per possession”. But Harden will have played almost 500 more minutes for his team.
