Ben Taylor
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Playoff changes among stars
🕑 Added 2019-04-13 14:01:00 +0000 UTCI couldn't fit every notable player in the latest video on changes in the playoffs -- I'll have more in-depth videos on plenty of these players in the future -- but there were a few big names that I cut for time. I'll get to their changes in the metrics outlined in the video, but first a technical note that was too dense for the video:
Players seem to lose value in plus-minus metrics in the playoffs, but not because they're necessarily playing worse. Instead, this is likely the direct result of playing tougher competition, making it more difficult to create large scoring margins that give us plus-minus values we're accustomed to seeing in the regular season. As a result, most star players decline in plus-minus hybrids like PIPM (Player Impact Plus-Minus) and Augmented Plus-Minus (AuPM).
Specifically, using 3-year PIPM, 83 percent of these stars declined in the playoffs. For example, James Harden's 3-year PIPM from 2016-18 was +4.5 in the regular season and +3.4 in the postseason...but this change is about average among star players in the last two decades. Kobe's 3-year peak in PIPM from 2007-2009 was +4.6, and his "drop" to +4.5 is actually better than many other superstars on record. This doesn't mean players never improve -- Tim Duncan went from +7 to +9.4 from 2001-03 to set the best PS mark on record -- but over the long haul, players typically lose a little value in plus-minus in the playoffs.
Other Stars
Notable players who didn't make the video, and their change in offensive BPM:
- Robert Horry +0.8
- Ray Allen +0.7
- James Worthy +0.6
- Paul George +0.6
- Allen Iverson +0.5
- Scottie Pippen +0.5
- Charles Barkley +0.5
- John Stockton +0.4
- Patrick Ewing +0.4
- Jason Kidd +0.4
- Rasheed Wallace +0.4
- Dirk Nowitzki +0.3
- Steve Nash +0.3
- Russell Westbrook +0.3
- Magic Johnson +0.2
- Paul Pierce +0.2
- Kevin McHale +0.2
- Clyde Drexler +0.1
- Dwyane Wade +0.1
- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar +0.1
- Gary Payton +0.1
- Jerry West +0.1
- Manu Ginobili 0.0
- Oscar Robertson -0.1
- Julius Erving -0.1
- Bob Pettit -0.1
- Wilt Chamberlain -0.1
I've written about Dirk before. He had no change from 2001-07, and then was +1.4 in OBPM in the playoffs from 2008-11. Wade was stronger before the injuries too: From 2005-11, if we remove his 2007 playoffs where he played hurt, he improved by +0.9 in this metric in the playoffs.
Wilt, as always, is an interesting case study. During his volume scoring years, his scoring rate dropped by a whopping 4.7 points (!) in the playoffs, by far the biggest drop-off among any of these players. (Bill Russell played a sizable role in that.) But his efficiency remained steady when accounting for opponent strength and his passing actually improved, which prevented his overall value from changing much.
[An interesting future project would be to convert more terms in my model to relative to league averages, which would allow for further adjustments in playoff BPM relative to opponent strength. I assume this would help a player like Wilt.]
LeBron, as I've noted, has been "Playoff LeBron" for the last 3 years. If you check the Backpicks Box spreadsheet, you'll see LeBron's regular season BPM's dipping to closer to +6 but his playoff values remaining around +8.
Finally, Shawn asked about star players next to LeBron. In Miami, Wade's OBPM dropped by 0.2 points from 11-14, Bosh's improved by 0.2. In Cleveland, Love dropped by 0.3 points from 15-18 while Kyrie improved by 0.9 points. It's a small sample, but Kyrie's 3-year offensive run of +3.8 in Cleveland ranks 30th all-time.
And yes, I'm definitely planning on deeper dives into the overall playoff performance of these all-timers.
P.S. The "playoff" section of the Backpicks Box spreadsheet has been updated with these opponent adjustments.
