Ben Taylor
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Nikola Jokic's historical postseason
🕑 Added 2019-05-11 19:54:04 +0000 UTCMany of you have asked for playoff leaders in my BPM model and some have specifically inquired about Nikola Jokic. Jokic leads the NBA in postseason BPM at +8.2, well ahead of the next best mark so far:
- Durant +6.8
- Giannis +6.5
- Harden +6.3
- Kawhi +6.1
The usual small sample-sized warnings apply for these players -- see my previous post for details if you haven't -- along with what I discussed with Dave DuFour on podcast #17 about favorable opponent's for Jokic. But he's torn it up in his first 515 minutes of playoff action.
He leads the playoffs in passer rating at 9.3 while upping his scoring (24.4 per 75) and efficiency (61% true shooting). Denver's offense over these two series has produced a 115 rating, which is better relative to their competition (+4.1) than their regular season output (+3.0).
But Jokic's overall statistical footprint is what's most impressive. To put his BPM of +8.2 number into perspective, only 3 players in their 25-or-younger seasons have ever posted a mark above +8 while playing at least 400 playoff minutes. Those players are LeBron James (2009 and 2010), Chris Paul (2008), and Michael Jordan (1989), all of whom were around +9 in those legendary seasons. His 40 percent 3-point shooting might not be sustainable, but it's been an incredible two series nonetheless for Joker.
How good is Kawhi?
I'll address this in detail in an upcoming video, but here's a sneak preview: Despite incredible scoring numbers, Leonard isn't lapping the field in this model because of his playmaking. His passing has always been subpar, but he's clocking in with an eye-opening 3.6 passer rating, down from 4.5 in the regular season. Some of this is likely a preference for shooting instead of passing -- his overall load has gone up as he has ramped up scoring -- but his statistical profile is looking more like Bernard King than, say, Michael Jordan.
And of course, this is the classic profile of a floor-raiser, which in many ways is what Kawhi is doing right now. His scoring rate of 31.7 at +13% efficiency (!!) is unreal, but I'm not sure how much it would help a good offense. The Raptors playoff efficiency is around 109 heading into Game 7, and while I think that's a testament to Leonard's shot-making from both the midrange and downtown, he's not exactly carving out open shot after open shot for his struggling team.
I'll have more to say in the video...
Playoff BPM now available
If you're in the "Insider" tier, all playoff stats are now available in the "2019 Playoffs" tab of the Backpicks Box. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UPt5oybqcWmazOhQ8JVA4kdchKh14DufF3JYWcZNJ8M/edit?usp=sharing
I'll try and update those numbers for the rest of the year for players with at least 100 postseason minutes. I'll also make an adjustment for defensive opponent at the end of the postseason which is a touch tricky to make repeatedly during the playoffs, so just be aware of that if you see numbers change slightly in June.
As always, look forward to your questions and feedback. Thanks for your continued support.
Comments
Thanks! Really enjoying the breakdowns.
They are synonyms. It probably would have been clearer to use "low level" again, but I forgot about that exact verbiage.
Quick question about some terminology (and sorry in advance if this is more precise than you're trying to be). In your K. Leonard video you call him a weak MVP candidate, which I recognize from your Top 40 methodology. In the Jokic video you call him a "low-level MVP" is this a synonym for weak MVP or are you saying Jokic grades out on the lower end of MVP (closer to 17% title odds than to 23%)?
Well, he was ahead in the regular season. Sample is an issue in the playoffs.
err, it's saying acess denied even though i'm paying the insder tier thing. Also find it interesting that your metrics have 2009 lebron as peak lebron playoff wise. The biggest suprise for me has to be kd coming ahead of giannis. Doesn't giannis draw far more attention and defend alot better?
