Ben Taylor
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Stats 101 Part 4 (early access)
🕑 Added 2019-09-28 18:46:11 +0000 UTCHere's an early look at the fourth installment of the Stats 101 series on YouTube. Many of you have asked for a video on my playmaking metrics, and here it is. More details can still be found on backpicks under "metrics." Additional sources:
Passer Rating details: http://www.backpicks.com/2018/07/15/nba-passer-ratings-since-1978/
Box Creation updates that incorporate spacing for better historical accuracy: http://www.backpicks.com/2019/07/13/box-creation-update-improving-accuracy-across-eras-patreon-only/
A slightly different involvement rate that incorporates screening but counts all assists equally: https://fivetimesfive-blog.com/2017/05/22/new-statistics-involvement-rate/
An early-tracking involvement rate that uses FT assist data and foul drawing: https://fansided.com/2014/08/08/re-imagining-offense-multiple-credit-possessions-true-usage/
More on assist:turnovers:
Including all of these stats (box creation, passer rating and offensive load) to many models has improved performance, including my own version of BPM. I think (hope) in the near future that we'll be able to leverage more tracking data to have even better playmaking metrics, both as a one-number summary and as conditional metrics (eg transition passing performance given context X).
Comments
Hey how do we get access to the discord?
Very interesting analogy, with the new information gained being a defensive reaction. But yes, this video and that concept in the book are tightly linked.
In the book, you talk about increasing offensive efficiency by reducing the number of shots taken by a key scorer. I'm not sure if you covered that in the stat videos (the content is meshing in my mind). Anyhow, I realized that the scoring paradox is basically "The Monty Hall Problem of Basketball". (Maybe you said that in the book? - if so, it bears repeating.) In the Monty Hall Problem, you always want to trade your initially lower probability choice (1/3) for the alternate door which, after the reveal of 1 of the remaining doors, retains the remaining 2/3 probability of having the prize. By analogy, the top scorer is trading just his lower probability/forced shots for passes to teammates with higher probability shots - same as switching doors for an increased chance of getting the prize.
Very kind of you, thanks.
Mr. Taylor, you sir, are a basketball savant. This channel is like listening to Neil Degrasse Tyson speak.
The more I learn, the more I realize how much I screwed up as a youth coach. I should have encouraged a lot more high-risk passing. If 30% turnover is acceptable in the NBA for a layup, surely a lot higher is acceptable for youth (and it's gonna be a lot higher anyway, so if they're gonna risk - risk for the layup).
