Ben Taylor
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Poll: Season valuations and the bubble?
🕑 Added 2020-09-07 18:31:44 +0000 UTCHi everyone -- I'm not entirely decided on how to handle the bubble as it pertains to my annual player valuations. I see two distinct philosophies here that I've added in the poll (feel free to comment below as well).
1. "Count the bubble" -- For the 2020 season, the bubble counts, which means any drop offs, injuries or improvements are essentially treated as if the season carried on per usual and finished in June (instead of October).
2. "Don't count the bubble" - Wherever players were in March (based on a reasonable trajectory) is the basis for my valuations, which means players who may have materially improved during the shutdown won't see that credit until they play the 2021 season. This one's trickier because it's hard to do this without trying to fold in the information gained from watching the bubble playoffs. Some thoughts:
- The bubble IS what happened historically, so even though it's unique, focusing on their play now is reflective of what happened.
- Some players may be uniquely helped/hurt by this, particularly older players (who may be slightly worse) and the Year 2/3 guys who improved after 4 months off.
For my active career value rankings (Backpicks 40), it's possible I tweak this in a year or two since surrounding seasons always give me a bit more data to reflect with. Feel free to comment below in addition to the poll response.
Comments
Hey Ben, I was super excited to see your Top 10 players of 2020 video! Any idea when the CORP spreadsheet will be updated with the new 2020 values?
Jacob Pickup
He pretty strictly is adhering to the rules of Championship Equity, the reason for discluding those seasons is that the players had no chance of playing in the later playoff rounds due to injury, which means they couldn't have been adding championship value I don't like it, but I get it. And at least he gives us the +/- and port so you can ballpark the corp value
One of the great features of your CORP ranking that sets it apart from other metrics is that you combine regular season and playoff performance. Yes the bubble is less than ideal ( like many new normals we've had to adapt to in 2020) but I think including the playoffs in you evaluation is important. CAVEAT: I peruse your CORP ratings often several times a week (basketball nerd, I know) and it's hard for me to reconcile a player losing the majority of a season's CORP value due to a post season injury. Not only is NBA history forever altered when this happens but it gets tricky when trying to compare all time greats. Is there any way you could include in a separate list the value of these lost seasons? Durant 19, Kawhi 17, Chris Paul 16, KG 09, Duncan 00, West 67,71 possibly Giannis this season? Also what are your guidelines for including/excluding certain seasons due to injury? Sorry for the long and slightly off topic comment.
What happens in The Bubble does not stay in The Bubble, I say.
