planetfpl
patreon
📝🍟 s7 ep39 Written Notes
🕑 Added 2024-02-29 21:07:51 +0000 UTCAs promised on today's Chip Pod here's the written notes I used for today's Podcast.
This is completely unedited so not designed to be an article. They are my notes
4 Fixtures confirmed for BGW29
Other 6 fixtures will move to 34 or 37 with the possible exception of Arsenal v Chelsea
All of the top 9 have at least 1 game to rearrange with the exception of Villa
Villa are 1 of only 6 teams who will definitely play in every gameweek left (bar unforeseen circumstances). Others are West Ham, Burnley, Brentford, Luton and Forest.
You'll notice, those are 6 of the teams playing in 29, the other 2, Fulham and Tottenham are part of a group of only 4 teams who could blank in 34. There is a very small possibility Arsenal or Brighton could due to ‘the Chelsea backlog’ More on that later.
The current projection is for Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City and Wolves to reach the FA Cup Semi Finals. Thus moving their fixtures from the weekend of GW34 (but they could just be played in the midweek instead)
Brighton v Chelsea
Fulham v Liverpool
Tottenham v Man City
Wolves v Arsenal
Roadmap:
GW27: Normal
GW28: Bournemouth-Luton Double
GW29 Blank GW 4 fixtures
GW30 Normal
GW31 Normal
GW32 Normal
GW33 very small possibility of 11 games (or 9)
GW34 DGW that may have blanks or Normal
GW35 possible 11 games
GW36 Likely 11 games
GW37 DGW
GW38 Normal
Arsenal v Villa in 33
Very very small possibility this could be postponed. This decreased even further after Wolves victory last night.
What about Chelsea v Tottenham?
*GW33 looks like earliest possibility (4+ weeks from QF weekend)
*32 impossible as Tottenham have been selected for TV coverage Monday in 32 and Saturday lunchtime in 33.
*But with Chelsea also given a Monday slot in 33 that would be unlikely too if Chelsea and Liverpool reach FA Cup SFs & don’t draw each other (cos Liverpool SF will have to be on the Sunday if still in Europa on Sunday)
So 35 or 36 is most likely.
*I think Sky have picked these MNFs intentionally to block the PL requesting for the game to be played before GW34
Couldn’t it go into 34 or 37?
*Yes. If Chelsea lost to Leicester in the FA Cup or if Arsenal or Brighton go out of Europe before that game takes place.
*Arsenal and Brighton would be Chelsea’s other games that need arranging & due to their European commitments those games would have to go into 34 or 37
*If the 3 teams go through and Man City beat Newcastle the PL will have to commit to Chelsea v Tottenham not going into 34 or 37.
City are relevant to the conversation because if they reach the FA Cup SFs they will have games to rearrange with Brighton and Tottenham - and so will Chelsea.
There’s a circle between Brighton, Chelsea, Man City and Tottenham where they could all have 2 games to rearrange with teams from that circle. It makes it incredibly difficult to project what games go where. But Chelsea v Tottenham is the only 1 that doesn't feature a team in Europe so it’s the odd one out.
The projections could change again before we even get to GW29 then?
Yes, if Arsenal or Brighton go out of Europe. Particularly if Brighton lose to Roma because that would tip the balance into Brighton v Chelsea becoming the standalone fixture rather than Chelsea v Tottenham. This is due to Sky having the rights for the London Derby and unlikely to be bothered about Brighton v Chelsea
TNT own the rights for Arsenal v Chelsea rather than Sky so it’s not impossible if Arsenal went out of the Champions League before the SFs that fixture could become the ‘standalone’ game instead (if Brighton beat Roma). It’s also why I think that fixture is more likely for 37 than 34 & it’s this that starts the daisy chain of predicting what games go where
Arsenal v Chelsea in 37 would mean
Brighton v Chelsea stays in 34 which means
Brighton v Man City must go in 37, so
Tottenham v Man City must stay in 34.
Arsenal v Chelsea in 37 would also mean
Wolves v Arsenal stays in 34 and
Wolves v Bournemouth goes into 37
*This is based on current Cup projections of Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Man City and Wolves all progressing in their respective competitions.
And the whole process can be reversed. So if Arsenal v Chelsea went into 34 instead of 37 the other 5 fixtures would also all move to the opposite stated previously.
But where do the other postponed games go?
I've had a tip off that there are plans for Everton v Liverpool to be played on Wednesday May 15th. That's GW37. And goes against everything we've said previously about the risks attached. Presumably because the PL and Sky want the maximum possibility for drama. They’re bonkers. I think it’s bonkers. But I can’t ignore the tip I’very had.
So Everton v Liverpool to go in 37 would mean
Fulham v Liverpool stays in 34.
If you've been following (well done) that would mean the 4 postponed games in 34 would all stay in 34, just moving from the weekend to the midweek.
So, could GW34 just be a normal gameweek with the 10 scheduled fixtures just being spread over a whole week?
Yes!
But I was gonna Bench Boost that week!
But I was gonna Free Hit that week!
You may still be able to. Remember those fixtures could all reverse and if they did Bournemouth would have a double.
Is that it?
Yep.
Oh and Tottenham would have a Blank.
The key to getting doubles in 34 rests with what happens with the two remaining games postponed from GW29.
Crystal Palace v Newcastle
Man Utd v Sheff Utd
There’s no Science to where they go. Sky won’t pick up those games with the 3 teams going for the title likely to now fill the TV spots in the 34 and 37 midweeks. Every side in danger of relegation is out of the Cup. The focus for those midweek will be on the title I imagine.
I've projected the two games to go into 34 purely on the PL’s recent preference to get games arranged at the earliest convenience when they can.
Remember we ended up with only 2 additional fixtures in GW37 last season.
It would leave the projections as follows:
34 - Doubles for
Palace (WHU/NEW)
Man Utd (NEW/SHU)
Newcastle (mun/cry)
Sheff Utd (BUR/mun)
and no teams with a blank.
*If the Cup projections are correct only alternatives to this can be doubles for Bournemouth and/or Everton and blanks for Fulham and/or Tottenham
37- Doubles for
Arsenal (mun/CHE)
Bournemouth (BRE/wol)
Brighton (new/MCI)
Chelsea (nfo/ars)
Everton (SHU/LIV)
Liverpool (avl/eve)
Man City (ful/bha)
Wolves (CRY/BOU)
*The 4 projected 34 doublers, Fulham instead of Everton, and Tottenham having a DGW are the only alternatives to this.
Simple logic to go by. Any team that reaches an FA Cup Semi Final can not double in 34 but will definitely double in 37.
Teams who lose in the FA Cup Quarter Finals are the most likely to create GW34 doubles
As it stands no team is projected to double in 34 and 37. Chelsea will if they lose to Leicester in the Cup
6 of the 8 teams playing in GW29 can't double at all. This is why we said on the last Chip Pod you would want 3 different teams for 29/34/37
Worth noting a couple of things. Man Utd and Newcastle would likely be of interest for GW34. They have the bottom 2 at home in GW35. For those dead ending to 34 that may delay a WC til GW36.¹
If Wildcarding late to Bench Boost in 37 Tottenham’s single (if it’s only a single) off the back of a possible 36 DGW (che/liv) would be Burnley at home.
If Wolves play Bournemouth in 37 they’ll both have very attractive DGWs.
However in 36 they are away to Man City and Arsenal respectively and in 38 they are away to Liverpool and Chelsea respectively. Everton who are also now projected to double in 37 go to Arsenal in 38 as well.
However this lands there are difficulties to manoeuvre!
Key notes
*Projections may change again before 29 if Arsenal or Brighton exit Europe
*If any of Coventry, Leicester, Man Utd or Newcastle win in FA Cup QFs that will shift the projections again
*We should know the GW34 fixtures before GW30 (3 and a half weeks) but can’t guarantee it.
*Once we know what 34 looks like we’ll almost certainly know what 37 looks like even if it’s not officially announced
🍟 Free Hit Options
28 - (avoid LIVvMCI, the BOUvLUT Double, strong home games for ARS, MUN, BHA & CRY. Need to be well set for 29 though
29 - Cover the Blank. For those in a crisis situation. Probably 5 or less players currently
34 - Perfectly reasonable if the projections are right. But an alternative needs to be put in place if it ends up with 2 or less doublers
37 - Fuck planning weeks in Advance. Get the best XI of your choice of doublers at the time
38 - BHAvMUN but rest of xTop9 all have good fixtures & if Luton (FUL) & Forest (bur) I'd A decider for 17th that's good too. Gets away from the awful Wolves, Bournemouth, Everton fixtures if Bench Boosting before
🍟 Bench Boost Options
27 - One of the better SGWs left if we'll set. Don't mind it if so. Only Man Utd of top half clubs have a bad fixture
28 - Not in love with this due To the 1st v 2nd & 4th v 5th clashes but I know a few like it
29 - Someone's gonna press the wrong button aren't they!
34 - It might work, but you need a plan B in mind. Hate that 4 teams will play after an FA Cup Semi in the same week & based on projections missing too much imo elsewhere in the build up to it or after if Wildcarding for it. Bottom 6 do have good weekend fixtures though.
36 - Chelsea-Tottenham landing here might make this viable but not as keen on this as an idea as I was earlier in the week.
37 - Almost certain to have the most doubles. Rotation could kill & I sense it may underwhelm if the title is wrapped up but I think it's still the standout
🍟 Wildcard
27 - Plan through 28/29 either with or without a Free Hit
30/31 - Get away from the 29 shit
34 - Might be viable if FH37
35/36 - Get away from 34, prep for 37
37/38 - Fuck it just have 2 Free Hits at the end cos you manipulated the fixtures so well!
🍟 Triple Captain
28 - Solanke v SHU/LUT
31 - Salah v SHU
33 - Haaland v LUT
*34 - Hojlund v NEW/SHU
*37 - Haaland v ful/bha
38 - Son v shu
Comments
Matt Seward
Thanks for sharing James. So helpful to be able to be able to read back through and refer to it. It's helped a lot
Adie Torr
Thanks for sharing very helpful
