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šThe NBA Dynasty Report - November 20 2023š
🕑 Added 2023-11-20 21:33:34 +0000 UTC9 games on Sunday.
Letās dig in deep on 46 of the NBAās top prospects.
PHI 121 @ BKN 99
Jaden Springer
10 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 5 REB | 2 AST | 1-2 2PT | 2-2 FT | 21 MIN
šøAfter falling out of the rotation at the start of the month, Springer has come roaring back with three straight games with 20+ minutes. 87th percentile in Defensive EPM and becoming a more willing 3PT shooter (3.3 attempts per 75 poss. - up from 1.9 last season) - the floor here is a long-term 3-and-D rotation guard - but the upside to become a starter remains if the offensive gains continue.
DayāRon Sharpe
6 PTS | 8 REB | 2 AST | 2 BLK | 3-3 2PT | 20 MIN
šøA few extra minutes in a blowout, but Sharpeās role has risen dramatically with Claxtonās return - averaging nearly 20 minutes per game over the last four. Sharpe is in the 99th and 98th percentile, respectively, in offensive and defensive rebounding and is maintaining his strong block rate in expanded minutes. Limited offensively, DayāRon is still making it count as a P&R roll man - with an elite 1.33 points per possession in limited volume. I remain bullish and think heās at least a long-term backup center.
Paul Reed
0 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 4 REB | 1 AST | 2 BLK | 0-3 2PT | 14 MIN
šøFinally - a multi-block game from Paul Reed. Itās been disappointing but Iām here to preach patience. Reed IS attempting to create more off dribble, has improved his passing significantly, and is starting to take some threes. The big leap that Nick Nurse was hyping in training camp likely isnāt happening this year - but the potential remains sky high for the future. Hold and acquire at this low point.
Trendon Watford
8 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 4 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 3-7 2PT | 22 MIN
šøWatford delivers interesting fantasy lines whenever called into action and has one of the smoothest floaters youāll ever see from a 6ā8ā 240 pound forward. I donāt think he has a defensive position yet and the 3PT volume must improve, but thereās enough here to keep stashing in 300+ rostered formats since heās newly 23 years old.
Kenyon Martin Jr.
0 PTS | 1 REB | 4 MIN
šøOut of the rotation and unlikely to ascend without a series of injuries in front of him. At only 22 years old coming off of a dominant season at the rim in HOU (72.2% on big volume), Iām still hopeful that Martin Jr. can reclaim a strong rotation role across his prime. The key will be improving his defensive effort and consistency, which havenāt been there through three seasons.
DET 113 @ TOR 142
Scottie Barnes
17 PTS | 3-4 3PT | 7 REB | 9 AST | 4-7 2PT | 25 MIN
šøBarnes is contesting fewer shots over the last two weeks and has seen a corresponding drop in his block numbers - but the rise in his shooting (8-13 3PT over his last three games - 39.4% on the season on nearly double last yearās volume) is exactly what he needed to spark his All Star ceiling.
Cade Cunningham
18 PTS | 3-5 3PT | 5 REB | 4 AST | 4-12 2PT | 1-3 FT | 27 MIN
šøCade is leading the entire NBA in P&R ball handler possessions (166) in an offense that is so disrespected by opposing defenses that four defenders collapse on him the moment he enters the lane. His shot looks pure but driving to the rim 17+ times per game and attempting to finish over multiple defenders has left his efficiency in the dumpster (6th percentile at the rim, 27th percentile from mid-range). The Pistons need #1) more spacing and #2) to balance the on-ball workload with Jaden Ivey and get Cade more off-ball looks. With this season already a lost cause, letās hope they make some changes.
Ausar Thompson
9 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 10 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 3-4 2PT | 3-4 FT | 30 MIN
šøAusar has double-digit rebounds in five of his last six games and his block rate (4.4%, 89th percentile) continues to hold. He hasnāt hit a three in two weeks and is only averaging one attempt in that span, but weāll take the offensive growing pains when weāre getting this much across other categories. Ausarās 93rd percentile Defensive EPM is truly astounding - rookie wings should not be this good on defense.
Jaden Ivey
9 PTS | 0-5 3PT | 3 REB | 4 AST | 3-5 2PT | 3-4 FT | 28 MIN
šøIvey started with Killian Hayes inactive - and he had zero turnovers and the Pistons were a team-best +0 with him on the court. These are the small steps that Monty Williams - apparently - needs to see. Ivey averaged 6.8 P&R ballhandler possessions per game last season and is averaging 1.8 this season - despite improved efficiency (.833 points per possession). Hold Ivey and wait for the better days ahead - this team desperately needs Ivey as an additional on-ball creator.
Marcus Sasser
9 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 1 REB | 6 AST | 1 STL | 3-4 2PT | 21 MIN
šøSasser reclaimed some minutes in this one with Killian Hayes out and the Pistons getting blown out. Heāll likely dip back into a smaller role but you should be stashing him everywhere you can - 39.2 3PT% on strong volume, a mid-range maestro shooting 56.4% on 5.0 attempts per 75 poss., and plus-AST and STL rates. Sasser has all the makings of a long-term fantasy contributor.
Gradey Dick
5 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 1 STL | 0-1 2PT | 2-2 FT | 12 MIN
šøSlow start to Dickās rookie campaign - a brutal 23.7% from three on good volume and some ugly defensive metric rankings (7th percentile in Defensive EPM). Heāll be much better than this as the season continues but if the Raptors stay in the play-in mix, I donāt know if his role expands much this year.
James Wiseman
15 PTS | 3 REB | 1 AST | 1 BLK | 6-8 2PT | 3-5 FT | 24 MIN
šøThis was a garbage time special where Wiseman collected most of his stats in 8 minutes of non-competitive basketball. As usual, he fouled at an alarming rate and the defensive feel is likely never coming around. On the positive side, heās a career-best 78.3% at the rim this season. Iāve given up on Wiseman ever being a starter - but heāll likely get a few more seasons on the back-end of rosters to see if he can be a backup big.
ORL 128 @ IND 116
Paolo Banchero
24 PTS | 3 REB | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 9-14 2PT | 6-7 FT | 27 MIN
šøPaolo dominated at the rim (7-8) against the Pacersā league-worst defense and weāre starting to see steady STL production (71st percentile STL rate compared to 34th percentile as a rookie). The FT shooting remains atrocious (65.6% on huge volume) but the elite rim finishing is the key for this 6ā10ā 250 pound truck who can drive to the basket at-will.
Franz Wagner
19 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 7 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 6-12 2PT | 7-7 FT | 22 MIN
šøFranz has yielded some touches to Paolo over the last couple weeks but heās also been more aggressive getting to the basket - with 28 rim attempts in his last three games. Franz has career-highs in usage (25.2%), defensive rebound rate (15.0%) and steal rate (1.7%) and seems primed for some massive stat lines now that his cold shooting streak has snapped.
Jalen Suggs
18 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 5-6 2PT | 5-6 FT | 18 MIN
šøSuggs took advantage of the layup line presented by the Pacersā defense - and showed off an improved finishing package with a nice finger roll and reverse layup. Defensively, heās a monster and the Magic have - understandably - reduced his on-ball role and made him a more efficient, complementary scorer. My concern? 25.1% on wide-open threes (despite almost three wide-open attempts per game) and 29.3% on catch-and-shoot threes this season.
Jarace Walker
7 PTS | 0-3 3PT | 1 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 3-3 2PT | 1-1 FT | 14 MIN
šøCareer-high 14 minutes for Walker because of the blowout - and only his fourth game appearance this season. Encouraging to see Jarace getting threes up like he did in the preseason, even if they didnāt fall, and he had a nice steal for a transition layup that showed his defensive playmaking potential. I remain very optimistic on Jaraceās future and would not be shocked to see him starting early next season. Hold and stay strong.
Anthony Black
7 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 5 REB | 1 AST | 2 BLK | 1-3 2PT | 5-6 FT | 24 MIN
šøBlack went 4-for-7 from three in his first two big minute appearances at the beginning of November - and has gone 1 for 10 ever since. Blackās biggest offensive strength at Arkansas was his ability to slither to the rim with impressive footwork for his size, but heās averaging a paltry 2.3 drives per game so far this year (and 11.6% usage). I like Black long-term but the questions we had about his offensive game havenāt gone away.
Bennedict Mathurin
14 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 6 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 3-9 2PT | 5-5 FT | 25 MIN
šøMathurin is making some smarter passes this year - his assist rate is up to a respectable 48th percentile and his potential assists are up to 3.4 per game compared to last yearās 2.8. But heās going to need to shoot at some point to unlock his potential. 33.1% on wide open threes and 31% on catch-and-shoot threes just isnāt going to cut it.
Cole Anthony
15 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 5 REB | 3 AST | 1 BLK | 4-9 2PT | 4-4 FT | 25 MIN
šøCole is probably stuck as a third guard in Orlando in the short term, but I love his fantasy game and I think - like Derrick White before him - heāll eventually get expanded opportunity in his career and produce some top 100 seasons.
Isaiah Jackson
6 PTS | 4 REB | 1 AST | 3 STL | 1 BLK | 1-2 2PT | 4-6 FT | 12 MIN
šøThese were all garbage time minutes but itās nice to see the production from Jackson since heās been buried on the bench behind Jalen Smith. The lack of development here is concerning, but maybe we see Jackson emerge on a second team like former Pacer Goga Bitadze is doing for Orlando.
DEN 109 @ CLE 121
Evan Mobley
16 PTS | 10 REB | 5 AST | 2 BLK | 8-11 2PT | 32 MIN
šøAfter early struggles, Mobley is trending way up at the rim in the last two weeks (41-50, 82%) and has 13 assists in his last three games - hitting cutters and kicking out of drives with good vision. The 21.1% usage remains disappointing but this is at least the Mobley we saw last season.
Christian Braun
13 PTS | 1-1 3PT | 2 REB | 5-10 2PT | 25 MIN
šøBraunās offensive role has expanded significantly with Jamal Murray out - scoring on drives, in transition, and as a cutter. But his steals have evaporated this season (19th percentile steal rate) which will need to change if heās going to emerge as a viable fantasy option in his prime.
Julian Strawther
7 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 2 REB | 1 AST | 1 BLK | 1-3 2PT | 2-2 FT | 20 MIN
šøStrawther is maintaining ELITE 3PT volume across 10 appearances this season - 10.4 3PT attempts per 75 poss. (98th percentile). Unfortunately, thereās been little else to his game beyond shooting and the defense remains an impediment to larger minutes.
Craig Porter Jr.
21 PTS | 4 REB | 4 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 7-10 2PT | 7-7 FT | 25 MIN
šøNo, itās not a fluke - these are the kind of fantasy lines that Porter Jr. put up at Wichita State - making him one of my favorite undrafted players in the 2023 NBA Draft this summer. This comes with Mitchell, LeVert and Okoro out, but donāt forget about CPJ once he returns to the bench - his time as a rotation staple will come eventually.
Jalen Pickett
8 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 2 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 0-1 2PT | 2-2 FT | 19 MIN
šøI loved Jalen Pickettās fantasy stat set in the pre-draft process and thought Denver was the best possible landing spot to make his unconventional game work in the NBA. The minutes were inflated by garbage time but the three assists out of the pick-and-roll and two spot-up threes showed how he can make it as a long-term backup PG.
SAC 129 @ DAL 113
Keegan Murray
17 PTS | 2-7 3PT | 3 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 5-6 2PT | 1-1 FT | 33 MIN
šøKeegan disappointed as a scorer with Fox out of the lineup, but heās emerged as an elite defensive player (97th percentile Defensive EPM) who is suddenly locking down top scorers on the perimeter. Once the shots start falling (28.3 3PT% this season), his improved rebounding and nearly-doubled steal rate are going to lead to big fantasy production.
Dereck Lively II
6 PTS | 9 REB | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 3-6 2PT | 29 MIN
šøLively is in the bottom 10 in personal fouls per 36 minutes (5.2) but continues to finish at an elite rate (76.7% at the rim, 94th percentile) and already looks like one of the best offensive rebounders in the league. The Mavsā defense is a dumpster fire which is dragging down Livelyās defensive metrics (59th percentile Defensive EPM), but this has been an extremely positive rookie campaign so far.
Josh Green
11 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 4 REB | 5 AST | 2 STL | 2-3 2PT | 1-2 FT | 26 MIN
šøGreen is not going to consistently start until he shoots three pointers with volume - and weāre starting to see improvement there (5.1 3PT attempts per 75 poss. compared to 4.1 last season). Green also has 3+ assists in 5 of his last 6 games - and seems to have potential to grow given the creativity of some of his passes.
Jaden Hardy
4 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 1 STL | 0-2 2PT | 1-2 FT | 10 MIN
šøHardy is on the fringe of the rotation right now as the Mavericks try to find a viable defensive structure. I think Hardy eventually wins out over Dante Exum and carves out a more consistent role.
PHO 140 @ UTA 137
Keyonte George
7 PTS | 0-5 3PT | 5 REB | 11 AST | 1 STL | 2-7 2PT | 3-4 FT | 34 MIN
šøKeyonte looked like a new player in Summer League - noticeably slimmer than at Baylor and more explosive - and it looked like he could be an NBA starter as a score-first guard. But now we are 13 games deep into Utahās season and George is posting a 30.3% assist rate (93rd percentile) and appears to be a legitimate, long-term starting point guard. The shots arenāt falling right now, which is masking the breakout, but you should be trying to acquire Keyonte before everyone realizes HOW good heās going to be.
Ochai Agbaji
3 PTS | 1-1 3PT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 34 MIN
šøOchai has been getting 25+ minutes a night across the Jazzās last five games and heās produced 8 blocks and 7 threes across that span. If this newfound block rate (86th percentile) can hold, he becomes a much more interesting fantasy player. Second to only THT in Defensive EPM on the Jazz, so his position in the rotation looks like it could hold.
BOS 102 @ MEM 100
Santi Aldama
28 PTS | 6-15 3PT | 12 REB | 6 AST | 2 STL | 5-12 2PT | 39 MIN
šøCareer-highs for Santi in points, minutes, shots, threes, and assists all in the same game. The Grizzlies have desperately needed someone to step up and I think theyāve found him. I donāt know if the huge leaps in rebounding and assist rates can hold but the fact that Aldama has doubled his drives per game this season (and scoring at 70% true shooting on those drives) makes me think thereās something big happening here.
Sam Hauser
15 PTS | 5-7 3PT | 4 REB | 2 STL | 0-1 2PT | 22 MIN
šøHauser has attempted only eight shots inside the arc this season - but who needs two-pointers when you are shooting 47.5% from three on 98th percentile volume? Heās a screaming sell-high given the emptiness of the rest of his fantasy game - we can never forget that Duncan Robinson rose to a top 100ish dynasty ADP during his breakout season.
Ziaire Williams
6 PTS | 0-4 3PT | 7 REB | 4 AST | 3-7 2PT | 24 MIN
šøWilliamsā improvement as a rebounder has held through 12 games but he continues to struggle from three at high volume (28.8%). I expect heāll continue to get opportunities in this rotation but his 11th percentile Offensive EPM across 25 minutes a game speaks to why the Grizzlies have struggled so much to start this season.
David Roddy
0 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 2 REB | 20 MIN
šøRoddy had a chance to claim a large role in this rotation and it just looks like he isnāt ready - and may never be.
OKC 134 @ POR 91
Chet Holmgren
16 PTS | 2-2 3PT | 6 REB | 2 BLK | 4-4 2PT | 2-2 FT | 20 MIN
šøI tried to temper my expectations for Chetās rookie season, but heās already evolved into the fully formed fantasy superstar that I was hyping up before the 2022 NBA Draft. 14 games into the season, Chet is shooting 73% at the rim (86th percentile), 46.0% from three (92nd percentile), and 90.7% from the free throw line. Add in an elite block rate and you have a cornerstone player for the next decade.
Shaedon Sharpe
7 PTS | 1-1 3PT | 4 REB | 1 AST | 2-7 2PT | 24 MIN
šøExhibit A of why you donāt play a 20-year old 40+ minutes a night for three weeks - Sharpe has slammed into the wall in the last few games. Donāt worry - the star trajectory is still there - we just need Chauncey Billups to not kill this man in Year 2. Sharpeās near-double assist rate is holding and his shot creation is a revelation. Try a buy low and see if thereās some unwarranted panic from the Sharpe manager in your league.
Josh Giddey
6 PTS | 4 REB | 5 AST | 1 STL | 3-6 2PT | 23 MIN
šøGiddey is suffering from a deadly combination of high volume and awful efficiency at both the rim and from mid-range - along with a drop in his 3PT volume. Until that shot profile improves - and Giddey develops enough craft to finish at the rim and from floater range effectively - it will be ugly like itās been. With that said, I am buying during this slump - Giddey is one of the best passers and processors in the league and has been too good in his young career for this to be the new normal.
Cason Wallace
2 PTS | 1 REB | 1 STL | 1-2 2PT | 21 MIN
šøWallace started and was a non-factor offensively. He holds a 75% true shooting percentage on the season (99th percentile) on a miniscule 10.6 usage percentage. His offensive role could not be smaller but, similar to Keegan Murray last year, his willingness to play that role is why I think heāll be a very successful long-term starter in OKC.
Jabari Walker
13 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 7 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 5-10 2PT | 0-1 FT | 22 MIN
šøGet familiar with Jabari Walker, if you havenāt already. 21 years old with an 88th percentile Defensive EPM, strong rebounding rates, and 80+ percentile in both steal and block rates - thatās the recipe for a star role player in the future. With the Blazers headed nowhere this season, Jabari should be grabbed in all leagues rostering 200+ players.
Toumani Camara
6 PTS | 0-2 3PT | 2 REB | 3-3 2PT | 15 MIN
šøFoul trouble and a blowout led to these low minutes but Camara should be playing minutes in the upper 20s going forward. One of the few bright spots of this Blazersā season, his defensive impact should make him a rotation staple for years to come.
HOU 104 @ LAL 105
Alperen ÅengĆ¼n
23 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 10 REB | 5 AST | 1 BLK | 10-14 2PT | 31 MIN
šøEleven games into the Rocketsā season and itās become clear that ÅengĆ¼n is the Rocketsā best young player. Heās added a deadly mid-range game (57.1% on 91st percentile volume), is finishing at the rim at a career-best 69.4% and his assist rate is at 30% (93rd percentile). But the big headline is that Ime Udokaās coaching and a competent defensive structure around him has made Alperen into a solid defensive player (79th percentile Defensive EPM, 84th percentile defensive rating). Multiple All Star appearances ahead.
Jabari Smith Jr.
14 PTS | 2-6 3PT | 5 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 3-4 2PT | 2-2 FT | 32 MIN
šøLetās focus on the positive - Jabari has made a huge second-year leap at the rim, shooting 74.2% on increased volume. Thatās a BIG indicator of long-term success in NBA players. Heās also shooting 35.2% from three on increased volume compared to 30.7% last season. The rest of the profile is pretty flat compared to his rookie year, but Iām still optimistic on Jabari becoming a very good fantasy player across a long career.
Austin Reaves
17 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 6 REB | 6 AST | 3-4 2PT | 5-6 FT | 25 MIN
šøAfter a brutal October, Reaves is coming on strong - pushing up to an 81st percentile assist rate and the best steal rate of his career (57th percentile). I havenāt changed my bullish outlook on Reaves - heās going to be very good for a long time.
Jalen Green
9 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 6 REB | 3 AST | 1 BLK | 1-5 2PT | 1-3 FT | 31 MIN
šøAgain, focusing on the positive, Jalen is shooting a career-best 37.5% from three and getting to the line at a 95th percentile clip. The negative? Everything inside the arc is a disaster - 49.2% at the rim and 25% from mid-range. His playmaking has not developed and his steal rate is at a career low. The book isnāt written on Jalen but thereās some concern that he may be more of a complementary shooting guard rather than a star creator.
Tari Eason
2 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 5 REB | 1 BLK | 1-1 2PT | 17 MIN
šøTari is locked into a small rotation role but the elite rebounding is still there and heās blocking shots at an incredible pace (95th percentile block rate). Only two steals in five game is a bit surprising, so letās watch to see if Udokaās defensive scheme is limiting that area of Easonās game.
