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šThe NBA Dynasty Report - November 21 2023š
🕑 Added 2023-11-21 18:04:56 +0000 UTC8 games on Monday.
In-depth analysis on 35 top NBA prospects.
PLUS: the most interesting stat lines from last nightās G League games.
DEN 107 @ DET 103
Cade Cunningham
27 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 2 REB | 9 AST | 3 STL | 1 BLK | 5-13 2PT | 11-11 FT | 38 MIN
šøThe defensive playmaking AND getting to the line for 11 free throws? This is the Cade we need. His rebound rate has been cut in half because of Ausar Thompson but this is the stat set we project for Cadeās prime. Every attempt in the paint is still heavily contested but if he can draw fouls like this, it changes everything.
Jaden Ivey
17 PTS | 1-1 3PT | 4 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 6-7 2PT | 2-2 FT | 30 MIN
šøSeason-high 30 minutes even with Killian Hayes (14 MIN) and Alec Burks (17 MIN) active. Ivey attacked the rim relentlessly and assisted Cade twice - including an easy catch-and-shoot three on a drive kickout. This is what the Pistonsā offense needs and both Cade and Jaden will benefit from being paired in more minutes.
Ausar Thompson
8 PTS | 7 REB | 2 BLK | 4-10 2PT | 24 MIN
šøLimited minutes due to foul trouble. Ausar is #6 in total blocks in the entire league - behind only Anthony Davis, Brook Lopez, Victor Wembanyama, Chet Holmgren and Rudy Gobert. Heās 6ā 7ā.
Christian Braun
15 PTS | 2-2 3PT | 6 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 3-8 2PT | 3-4 FT | 32 MIN
šøIāve been skeptical on Bruan as a fantasy producer, but itās been nice to see his game scale up with more opportunity in the last three games. Heās 6-8 from three during that span and has improved significantly as a defender so far this season.
Peyton Watson
4 PTS | 1 REB | 2 AST | 2 BLK | 1-2 2PT | 2-2 FT | 13 MIN
šøWatsonās role has been capped at 11-13 minutes a night but he continues to carry an elite 94th percentile block rate. He remains one of the best stashes in the league and I think heāll eventually be a big minute starter across his prime.
Marcus Sasser
2 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 1-1 2PT | 5 MIN
šøSasser was on the outside of the rotation behind Ivey, Hayes, and Burks but I wouldnāt panic. I think heās shown more than enough to be part of the Pistonsā long-term plan and is a better fit for the rotation than Hayes.
BOS 118 @ CHA 121
Mark Williams
18 PTS | 16 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 3 BLK | 8-14 2PT | 2-2 FT | 33 MIN
šøEight offensive rebounds for Williams in this game - and heās 3rd in the league in that category this season. Williams is such a valuable fantasy asset because of his plus steal rate (61st percentile) and non-damaging FT% (70.8%) along with the elite big man stats. The early season minutes restriction is gone and WIlliams has eclipsed 30 minutes per game in his last three.
Brandon Miller
9 PTS | 1-4 3PT | 7 REB | 4 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 3-8 2PT | 40 MIN
šøHuge minutes but cold shooting. Miller is 12-18 from midrange in his last five games and shooting 50% for the season. Bridgesā arrival in the rotation will likely cap Millerās offensive role this season but thereās been a lot to love about his rookie campaign so far.
Payton Pritchard
21 PTS | 5-8 3PT | 6 REB | 3 AST | 2 STL | 3-6 2PT | 33 MIN
šøPritchard took advantage of Derrick White being out and finally hit some threes after being sub-30% through the first 13 games. Heāll go back to a small rotation role going forward but this is a nice reminder of the fantasy potential he has if a big role ever comes his way.
Sam Hauser
3 PTS | 1-9 3PT | 1 REB | 1 AST | 37 MIN
šøFinally cooled down from three and put up an extremely Tony Snell stat line in 37 minutes. Hauser is going to be a rotation player for many years to come because of his shooting and surprisingly competent on-ball defense, but his fantasy value is 3PT only.
MIL 142 @ WAS 129
Bilal Coulibaly
12 PTS | 2-2 3PT | 3 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 3-5 2PT | 25 MIN
šøThe outlines of Coulibalyās game are starting to form - a strong 69.7% at the rim and already shooting 46.2% from three - plus solid steal and block rates (67th and 73rd percentile, respectively). If Bilal is THIS competent as a 19 year-old role player, Iām even more confident that he will make the leap to being a star wing in his prime.
Deni Avdija
7 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 4 REB | 2 AST | 3-4 2PT | 1-2 FT | 31 MIN
šøA slow game for Deni but his minutes have been 30+ in five of his last six games and heās a solid 66.1% at the rim and 41% from three (albeit on average volume). His defense should keep him in a strong role - we just need to see the usage creep into the 20s (current at 18%).
Johnny Davis
0 PTS | 1 REB | 1 AST | 6 MIN
Davis is on the fringe of the Wizardsā rotation, even with Delon Wright out, and - while I generally donāt like to write prospects off until after Year 3 - the ceiling on Davis is looking like a rotation guard at best. This Wizardsā front office has no investment in Davis and they donāt appear to have any desire to force him into minutes.
AJ Green
2 PTS | 0-3 3PT | 2 REB | 1 AST | 1-1 2PT | 15 MIN
šøGreen has worked into Milwaukeeās rotation in the last two games with Beauchamp out. Heās a three point specialist who hit 4.4 threes per game on 10.3 attempts (42.6%) across 15 G League appearances last season. I donāt think thereās anything to see here for dynasty leagues.
NYK 100 @ MIN 117
Immanuel Quickley
15 PTS | 1-7 3PT | 1 REB | 3-7 2PT | 6-6 FT | 17 MIN
šø Low minutes in his last two games but the underlying metrics all scream breakout potential. Quickleyās midrange game is looking elite - 54.5% on 86th percentile volume - and heās getting to the line at an 82nd percentile clip with an 89.4 FT%. Add in a strong assist rate and you have the foundation of a future starting PG. We should all be looking to acquire IQ before he gets that starting opportunity.
Quentin Grimes
0 PTS | 0-6 3PT | 1 REB | 2 AST | 2 STL | 25 MIN
šø The good news? Grimes is shooting 40.3% from three on 85th percentile volume and jumped up to a competent 60th percentile steal rate. The bad news? Heās down to 24.7 minutes a night and 12.2% usage. This just isnāt enough of a role to support his meager fantasy game.
Josh Minott
2 PTS | 2 REB | 1-1 2PT | 1 MIN
šøMinott has played only 20 minutes all season but maybe we see more of him if Jaden McDaniels misses some time and Kyle Anderson is playing big minutes. He can be an elite STL and BLK producer even in limited minutes.
LAC 124 @ SAS 99
Victor Wembanyama
9 PTS | 0-4 3PT | 3 REB | 4 AST | 2 BLK | 4-8 2PT | 1-1 FT | 27 MIN
šøWembanyama only having one attempt at the rim is an indictment on how stagnant the Spursā offense is without competent playmaking on the floor. I have zero concern about Wemby hitting his superstar upside - and there are some great indicators across his first 14 games (70.6% at the rim, 94th percentile defensive rebounding, 98th percentile block rate). Once the Spurs put some passing around Victor, itās going to be over for the league.
Jeremy Sochan
8 PTS | 0-3 3PT | 8 REB | 1 AST | 3-9 2PT | 2-2 FT | 29 MIN
šøNo, the Point Sochan experiment is not going to make Jeremy into a long-term starting point guard - but itās probably the best thing for his long-term development as a connector and frontcourt hub next to Wembanyama. Heās 10-27 from three (37%) and above 60% at the rim - which are solid developments in Year 2 - I just really want to see some improvement in the defensive stat rates and that hasnāt happened yet.
Charles Bassey
2 PTS | 12 REB | 3 AST | 4 BLK | 1-3 2PT | 18 MIN
šøSome extra work in garbage time here but itās nice to Basseyās per-minute fantasy game popping again. His rebounding and block rates are at the top of the league and he has quick hands for a center - showing a knack for generating steals and deflections. Probably just a long-term backup big but you stash him for the per-minute upside.
Julian Champagnie
5 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 4 REB | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 1-2 2PT | 23 MIN
šøExpanded minutes with Vassell out, Champagnie dominated in his Summer League appearances and his steal and block rates from college appear to be translating to the pro game. His elite 3PT volume (89th percentile this year, 93rd percentile last year) combined with his strong positional size should make him a long-term rotation wing.
Malaki Branham
10 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 1 AST | 2-3 2PT | 21 MIN
šøBranham is 11 for 19 from midrange in his last four games and his assist rate is up to a solid 16%. I donāt know if Branham is more than a rotation combo guard at his peak but his three-level scoring potential and 6ā10ā wingspan make me think itās possible he could become more with time.
Bones Hyland
3 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 1 REB | 1 AST | 0-1 2PT | 4 MIN
šøOut of the rotation now that Harden has arrived. Bones is only 23 years old and I think he emerges into a strong per-minute rotation guard in the next year or two.
SAC 93 @ NOR 129
Herb Jones
18 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 7 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 6-7 2PT | 3-4 FT | 27 MIN
šøItās time to re-evaluate the ceiling on Herb Jones. Heās blocking shots at an elite level with a 91st percentile block rate - and has increased his contested shots per game from 6.2 to 7.5 this season (comparable to Victor Wembanyama and Bam Adebayo). Heās shooting 75% at the rim and hitting a steady diet of corner threes. Weāre also seeing nice progress in the rebound and assist rates. Herb is looking like a lot more than a steals specialist.
Keegan Murray
5 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 3 REB | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 0-2 2PT | 2-2 FT | 16 MIN
šøLeft early with a back injury - hopefully itās nothing serious. Heās been frustrating but the underlying metrics are showing that a leap is coming once the threes start falling again. Creating more shots for himself, playing elite defense, improved REB and AST rates, and a more diverse shot profile.
Dyson Daniels
3 PTS | 1-4 3PT | 2 REB | 5 AST | 1 STL | 25 MIN
šøDysonās AST and STL rates have scaled up to a larger role so far this year and heās hitting 56.3% from midrange (18-32). Like Jalen Suggs, I think the defense keeps him in a regular role and if he can continue to grow as a shooter, he should be a long-term starter.
Jordan Hawkins
9 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 5 REB | 2 AST | 1-6 2PT | 1-1 FT | 29 MIN
šøHawkins likely retreats to the back of the rotation once McCollum and Murphy III return from injury but this extended run has been eye opening. Jordan is hitting 36.2% from three on 93rd percentile volume and heās creating more shots off the dribble than I expected. Despite solid effort, heās just too thin to help on defense (1st percentile Defensive EPM) but I think weāve seen enough to view him as a likely starter in his prime.
MIA 118 @ CHI 100
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
19 PTS | 3-4 3PT | 3 REB | 4 AST | 2 STL | 5-9 2PT | 33 MIN
šøJaquez Jr. was a low-volume 3PT shooter at UCLA, but is up to 4.5 attempts per 75 possessions this season and hitting them at a 35.7% clip. His strong rim finishing is translating to the pros (65.4%) and heās already a defensive disruptor (82nd percentile steal rate and 2.9 deflections per 36 minutes). Add in solid defense and a big wing frame and thereās good reason to think that Jaime is going to be at least a big minute rotation player and even a starter across his prime.
Patrick Williams
9 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 3 REB | 2 BLK | 3-4 2PT | 17 MIN
šøWilliams is averaging 15 minutes per game in his last three games. But thereās still some flashes here - Williams had three really impressive drives where he scored on contested layups against Miami and his block rate is up the 88th percentile along with a career-high 84th percentile steal rate. Last yearās strong 3PT shooting has evaporated (26.2%) but, at only 22 years old, Iām just not ready to give up on Williams as a prospect - weāve seen Chicago fail to develop lottery prospects over and over in the last decade and Williams may just need a new team.
HOU 116 @ GSW 121
Alperen ÅengĆ¼n
30 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 13 REB | 5 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 11-20 2PT | 2-5 FT | 37 MIN
šøÅengĆ¼n is surpassing even the wildest projections of where we thought he could be in Year 3. Heās up to 32 minutes per game - both because heās the primary driver of Houstonās halfcourt offense but also because his commitment on defense has warranted big minutes (80th percentile Defensive EPM). Heās just started scratching the surface of his 3PT shooting (5-8 in his last three games) and he dominated the offensive boards against the Warriors (7 OREB). Itās all happening.
Jabari Smith Jr.
17 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 9 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 6-7 2PT | 2-2 FT | 32 MIN
šøJabari was cooking from midrange in this one (4-5) - getting to his spots and hitting contested jumpers like he did at Auburn. Heās still not creating many shots for himself and heās getting to the line even less than last season (16th percentile FTA volume). But his improvement at the rim (75.8%, 90th percentile) and on defense makes me confident that heāll be a long-term starter, even if the star potential seems less likely.
Jalen Green
16 PTS | 2-9 3PT | 3 REB | 2 AST | 4-6 2PT | 2-2 FT | 23 MIN
šøExpect some ugly outings in the coming weeks for Green - it feels like Udoka is going to try to reshape him and keep him accountable in his minutes. The efficiency remains brutal - Green is the least efficient player inside the arc on high volume in the NBA this year - but heās getting to the free throw line at a star-level rate and itās still possible that it all clicks since weāre talking about a 21 year old. Hold on and hope for the leap later this season.
Brandin Podziemski
3 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 5 REB | 3 AST | 18 MIN
šøPodziemski has locked down a rotation spot in the last four games and everything we saw at Santa Clara is translating over - strong defensive rebounding (77th percentile) and assist rate (73rd percentile) and shooting 45.5% from three on solid volume. Heās going to at least be a good per-minute producer as a third guard in his prime and has a ceiling as a long-term starting PG who could stack top 75 seasons.
Moses Moody
7 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 4 REB | 2-4 2PT | 22 MIN
šøMoody is showing the progression we needed to see in Year 3 - heās solidly in the rotation, has increased his steal rate from 22nd percentile to 89th percentile and he continues to shoot efficiently from all three levels. The usage (16.1%) isnāt enough to make him fantasy relevant in the 18 mpg heās averaging, but I think he will eventually be a starter whether in Golden State or elsewhere.
Jonathan Kuminga
7 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 5 REB | 3 AST | 2-4 2PT | 18 MIN
šøAs a Kuminga evangelist, it pains me to see minutes and volume this low in a game without Draymond. Kuminga has career-high usage (27.4%) and continues to dominate at the rim (69.6%) but he cannot hit a three to save his life (6 for 32, 18.8%) and hasnāt been as locked in defensively as he was for stretches of the 22-23 season. Itās been a mixed bag but JK is newly 21 years-old and I still think his high-end outcomes are on the table.
ā”G League Lightning Roundā”
Leonard Miller
10 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 4 REB | 2 AST | 2-3 2PT | 2-2 FT | 26 MIN
GG Jackson
21 PTS | 4-9 3PT | 5 REB | 3 AST | 2-5 2PT | 3-3 FT | 32 MIN
Kobe Brown
17 PTS | 1-6 3PT | 11 REB | 4 AST | 1 BLK | 6-17 2PT | 1-3 FT | 33 MIN
Kris Murray
8 PTS | 2-8 3PT | 8 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 4 BLK | 1-6 2PT | 33 MIN
Kenneth Lofton Jr.
23 PTS | 1-4 3PT | 9 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 4 BLK | 6-10 2PT | 5-6 FT | 36 MIN
Rayan Rupert
13 PTS | 3-5 3PT | 1 REB | 2 AST | 1-2 2PT | 1-1 FT | 34 MIN
Wendell Moore Jr.
19 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 3 REB | 3 AST | 3 STL | 5-9 2PT | 2-2 FT | 38 MIN
Comments
Matt Lawson
Love Ausar, but youāre definitely not going to feel that way once Scoot gets going later this season.
Ausur is looking like he shouldāve been 1.02 instead of Scoot for me. Lol. I know thatās a short sighted comment. Lol.
Thank you for your hard work
