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šThe NBA Dynasty Report - November 24 2023š
🕑 Added 2023-11-24 10:59:44 +0000 UTCA belated Happy Thanksgiving to all.
With no NBA games on Thursday, hereās a breakdown of the top prospectsā performances from the huge 14-game slate on Wednesday. PLUS, all the notable lines from Wednesdayās G League games.
WAS 114 @ CHA 117
šøMark Williams with 11 PTS, 15 REB and 3 BLK in 35 minutes - we knew that heād have big rebound and block numbers but the minutes have been huge in the last four games (32.5 mpg). Heāll be a top 50 producer with this kind of role.
šøBrandon Miller went 3-6 behind the arc and now sits at a modest 33.9 3PT% on 46th percentile volume. His midrange game has been outstanding (82nd percentile efficiency on big volume) but we need to see more outside shooting nights like this one as his rookie season progresses.
šøA quiet 19 minutes for Bilal Coulibaly who also injured his ankle at the end of the game - donāt expect big starterās minutes until the Wizards going into full tank mode in the second half.
DEN 119 @ ORL 124
šøAll of the underlying numbers suggested a Franz Wagner breakout performance was coming and here we are - a season-high 27 points driven by 10-14 shooting inside of the arc and 4-4 from the free throw line. The Magic are looking like a playoff team and Franzās defensive performance (96th percentile Defensive EPM) has been a huge driving factor.
šøPaolo Banchero hit 4 of 5 three pointers and has 7 blocks in his last four games. The outside shooting has been a huge development - 45.5% from three, largely driven by more selective shooting.
šøChristian Braun continues to trend up in Jamal Murrayās absence (13 PTS | 2-2 3PT | 7 REB | 1 AST | 21 MIN). His shooting has been the big development - 8 for 10 from three across the last four games and shooting 42.9% on the season.
MIL 116 @ BOS 119
šøMarJon Beauchamp (22 minutes, 5 points) hasnāt taken the step forward that we wanted to see this season but I continue to be intrigued by Andre Jackson Jr. (8 minutes, 7 PTS, 1-1 3PT). Heās 4-8 from three this season and would be the Bucks best perimeter defender if inserted into the lineup. Stash him in 250+ rostered leagues.
šøThe Celtics are light on prospects on their NBA roster, but make sure you check out the line from JD Davison in the G League last night (listed below). Younger than many rookies at 21 years old, heās an explosive athlete with a strong fantasy stat set.
MIA 129 @ CLE 96
šøJaime Jaquez Jr. with the best game of his young career - 22 PTS | 4-4 3PT | 8 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 4-5 FT in 28 minutes. Jaime would have been a lottery pick if he demonstrated this kind of shooting at UCLA. Heās shooting 41.3% from outside on average volume and looking like a long-term starter for the Heat.
šø Craig Porter Jr. started and showed out again - 16 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 5 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK. It would be criminal for him to be outside the rotation once the Cavs are healthy and they need to get him on a full roster contract.
šø Orlando Robinson lost the backup C job to Thomas Bryant in the preseason but has outplayed him since. This is the kind of stat-stuffing line weāve come to expect from Robinson - 14 PTS | 1-1 3PT | 9 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK in 28 minutes. He should be rostered in 225+ player leagues.
TOR 132 @ IND 131
šø Scottie Barnes with a casual double-double and four steals. The 3PT volume and efficiency have jumped way up (38.2 3PT% on nearly double last yearās volume) and heās become an elite help defender (100th percentile [!!!] Defensive EPM). A lock for All-Star.
šø Gradey Dick and Isaiah Jackson were DNP-CDs and all of the Pacersā youngsters were down in the G League (check out that big line for Jarace Walker).
BKN 145 @ ATL 147
šø The Nets have been feeding DayāRon Sharpe consistent rotation minutes since Claxton returned and heās delivered. 6 PTS | 7 REB | 2 STL | 1 BLK in only 14 minutes. Sharpe is arguably the best per-minute rebounder in the league.
šø A āslowā night for Jalen Johnson - but his 40(!!) minutes show how secure his starting role is and he stacked 3 STL+BLK again. The defensive metrics back up the eye test - Jalen is one of the best young defenders in the league.
MEM 91 @ HOU 111
šø After struggling through the worst efficiency in the league inside the arc all season, Jalen Green exploded in this one - going 6-8 at the rim and 4-5 from midrange. More flashes of this version of Jalen are what we need to see to keep hope alive for his highest-end outcomes as a prospect.
šø Jabari Smith Jr.ās usage is still below 20% but I love the efficiency gains we are seeing - 72.2% at the rim (59.3% last season), 47.4% from midrange (40.8% last season), and 36.5% from three (30.7% last season). The box scores stats arenāt eye-popping but heās on track as a 20 year-old prospect.
šøA low-scoring night from Alperen ÅengĆ¼n (11 PTS) but heās now hit a three in four consecutive games and his 3 blocks were a season-high. If the shot blocking returns even to last yearās levels, ÅengĆ¼n could be a top 20 producer this season.
šø A quiet night in a blowout for Santi Aldama - 8 PTS in 22 minutes. Iād write this one off - the shot volume was way lower than his prior seven games and should bounce back.
PHI 99 @ MIN 112
šøFinally - the Paul Reed game weāve been waiting for. We had to endure Marcus Morris starting, but 26 minutes of Reed meant we got 2 steals, 4 blocks, and a near double-double. Heāll likely go back to being just a straight backup to Embiid but this per-minute mastery is why you hold on to him for the future.
šø No Josh Minott or Leonard Miller in the rotation with Jaden McDaniels out. The Wolves canāt afford to bring Kyle Anderson back this offseason, so their time is coming.
SAC 112 @ NOR 117
šø Dyson Daniels started again and played 29 minutes but McCollumās impending return will relegate him to a smaller rotation role. The underlying numbers are showing growth - an improved 89th percentile steal rate and a huge leap in his midrange efficiency (98th percentile - 58.8%). I still think he becomes a long-term starter in his prime.
šø Jordan Hawkins went 2-8 from three in 21 minutes which should be around his usual role even when CJ returns. His 94th percentile 3PT volume is a fantastic indicator for his career trajectory - he looks like heāll live up to all of the hype as a shooting prospect.
LAC 109 @ SAS 102
šøAfter having only one shot at the rim in the Spursā last game, Victor Wembanyama went 5-7 at the rim against the Clippers and protected the rim at the defensive end with three blocks. The best is yet to come with Victor and games like that this (22 PTS, 15 REB) flash that superstar upside.
šøItās been a rough stretch for Jeremy Sochan - adapting to playing point guard is the hardest growth curve in the league - but this is a preview of the future. 19 PTS, 5 REB, 7 AST and 5-6 from the free throw line. There will be growing pains but Sochan is worth the wait.
CHI 102 @ OKC 116
šøI say this in every report - but how right were we on Chet Holmgren? 18 PTS, 13 REB, 1 STL and 4 BLK and heās getting to the free throw line at a superstar rate and converting (8-11 in this game, 88.9 FT% on the season). Itās getting harder and harder to view Chet as anything less than a top 10 dynasty asset.
šøItās been a rough start for Josh Giddey on the court but hereās why my long-term projection on him isnāt really changing. Heās suffering from a smaller on-ball role (64.9 touches per game compared with 76.7 last season), passing fewer times per-game, and suffering from a cold streak at the rim. The rest of the underlying numbers look the same as last season and he just turned 21 years old - his ceiling as a fantasy player has not changed. Iām holding and waiting to see how this plays out.
šø Chicago leaned back into the Patrick Williams experience with a team-leading 37 minutes, and the returns were underwhelming. 10 PTS, 7 REB, and no defensive stats. Iām not giving up entirely but the ceiling is much lower than we hoped for.
šøCason Wallace continues to play veteran-level defense with the smallest offensive role possible (10.4% usage, 5th percentile). I think the role expands exponentially in his prime - OKC is just maximizing what young prospects do best.
UTA 105 @ POR 121
šøWelcome back, Scoot! Seven assists in only 17 minutes. Have patience as he navigates the rough life on an NBA point guard. Like so many before him, the second half of the season will be much more forgiving and Year 2 will be a breakout.
šø Keyonte Georgeās best scoring game as a starter - 16 PTS, 3-6 3PT, 7 AST, and 7-7 from the free throw line. His defense is atrocious but thatās expected for a rookie guard being forced into big minutes on a poor defensive roster.
šøWhat a performance from Jabari Walker - 19 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 10 REB | 2 STL. His plus-rebounding allows him to play small ball center and heās destined to put up some huge lines during the Blazersā inevitable tanking stretch in the second half.
GSW 115 @ PHO 123
šøI loved Brandin Podziemski in the pre-draft process but didnāt think he could crack the Warriorsā rotation as a rookie - I was wrong. Three steals in 23 minutes and quickly becoming a favorite of Steve Kerr - this kid is going to be a starting point guard across his prime.
šøMaybe Iām also wrong on Jonathan Kuminga. Huge opportunity with Draymond out and CP3 ejected and flatlined in 21 minutes. Heās still young but this isnāt the Year 3 we hoped for after an amazing preseason.
DAL 104 @ LAL 101
šøDereck Lively II hurt his back late in this one after a rough fall on an attempted alley-oop. Hopefully heās ok. Before his exit, it was a quiet game but notable that zero fouls in 19 minutes of action. Once he figures out how to avoid fouling, his numbers are going to be a lot more consistent.
šøJaden Hardy is stuck in a minor bench role (7 MIN, 2 PTS) as Kidd continues to work Dante Exum (9 MIN) into the rotation as well. Eventually, the Mavericks have to realize that Hardyās development is necessary to developing a consistent winning team around Luka, but apparently they havenāt gotten there yet.
šøAustin Reaves (17 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 6 REB | 6 AST | 6-9 2PT | 31 MIN) has emerged from a slow start and is picking up where he left off in the second half and playoffs last season. Heās more than doubled his steal rate this year and nearly doubled his rebound rate - if those hold, heāll be significantly better than we projected.
ā”G League Lightning Roundā”
Jarace Walker
30 PTS | 0-7 3PT | 7 REB | 1 AST | 1 STL | 12-16 2PT | 3-5 FT | 35 MIN
Cam Whitmore
25 PTS | 5-11 3PT | 8 REB | 5 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 3-5 2PT | 2-2 FT | 33 MIN
Jett Howard
34 PTS | 7-16 3PT | 4 REB | 2 AST | 2 STL | 4-6 2PT | 3-4 FT | 34 MIN
Noah Clowney
10 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 14 REB | 4 AST | 3-4 2PT | 3-3 FT | 37 MIN
Nikola Jovic
7 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 6 REB | 4 AST | 1-6 2PT | 1-2 FT | 26 MIN
Dalen Terry
15 PTS | 1-6 3PT | 4 REB | 6 AST | 2 STL | 6-10 2PT | 0-1 FT | 31 MIN
Ben Sheppard
12 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 6 REB | 3 AST | 3-7 2PT | 19 MIN
Dariq Whitehead
10 PTS | 1-4 3PT | 4 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 3-6 2PT | 1-1 FT | 23 MIN
Julian Phillips
29 PTS | 5-9 3PT | 11 REB | 2 AST | 1 BLK | 4-8 2PT | 3-4 FT | 28 MIN
Oscar Tshiebwe
20 PTS | 28 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 8-13 2PT | 2-4 FT | 34 MIN
Adama Sanogo
26 PTS | 14 REB | 1 BLK | 10-16 2PT | 3-3 FT | 29 MIN
JD Davison
38 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 4 REB | 8 AST | 1 STL | 13-19 2PT | 6-9 FT | 38 MIN
Amari Bailey
12 PTS | 6 REB | 5 AST | 3 STL | 4-11 2PT | 2-2 FT | 28 MIN
Jalen Wilson
20 PTS | 4-8 3PT | 5 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 1-5 2PT | 4-4 FT | 30 MIN
Terquavion Smith
23 PTS | 6-13 3PT | 6 REB | 1 STL | 1-2 2PT | 1-1 FT | 29 MIN
Jordan Walsh
5 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 7 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 1-5 2PT | 0-1 FT | 28 MIN
Ricky Council IV
31 PTS | 0-4 3PT | 6 REB | 1 AST | 1 BLK | 13-17 2PT | 3-4 FT | 38 MIN
Comments
Matt Lawson
As he should be - clearly better than Ty Jerome.
Zen as fuck
Bickerstaff said CPJ will be in rotation when others are back.
