NBADynastyADP
patreon
šThe NBA Dynasty Report - November 27 2023š
🕑 Added 2023-11-27 17:24:48 +0000 UTCScoot Henderson is back. The Magicās young stars shined, and Victor Wembanyama is everything we hoped for and more.
8 games on Sunday.
A full breakdown of all the top prospect performances AND the top lines from last night in the G League.
If you enjoy these reports, please give them a ālikeā so I know youāre reading them. Given how much time they take me to write, I want to be sure theyāre worth your time and attention.
POR 102 @ MIL 108
šøThis is the best Scoot Henderson has looked this season - 3 for 4 on threes, including a nice stepback over Damian Lillard. He appeared more composed and in control than in prior appearances as the Blazers spread on-ball reps across the rotation rather than the heavy focus on Scoot we saw in the first two weeks. Keep buying if thereās any unfounded panic on Scoot - heās going to be a star.
šøShaedon Sharpeās best game in a couple weeks - 17 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 6 REB | 3 AST | 2 STL | 6-14 2PT | 2-3 FT | 37 MIN. Sharpe has developed a nice floater which he had working in this one. He was swallowed up at the rim by Brook Lopez on a few occasions but once he figures out how to use his elite athleticism to finish through contests, itās wheels up to stardom.
šøToumani Camara started but picked up four fouls by the third quarter, limiting him to 17 MIN - but he did go 2 for 2 from three, putting him at 4 for 6 in his last two games. If he can hit the three consistently, his defense can keep him on the floor for big minutes.
šøAndre Jackson Jr. got another start with Middleton out but played only 12 minutes (0 PTS, 1 REB). Heās obviously not ready for big minutes as an offensive player but itās telling that the Bucks are trying to feed him minutes with the starters to accelerate his development, while MarJon Beauchamp (9 minutes) has faded to the back of the rotation.
MIN 119 @ MEM 97
šøSanti Aldama couldnāt hit a three against the Wolves - 1 for 7 - and heās been ice cold from outside in his last three (5-20, 25%). Heās making up for it with an improved driving game and hitting mid-rangers (6-11 in his last three games) but the 3PT shooting has to improve for Aldama to have consistent fantasy value.
šøAfter struggling from three all season, David Roddy has gone 4-9 in last two games. Maybe itās nothing but itās the first time heās hit threes in back-to-back games all season, so weāll keep monitoring.
šøZiaire Williams was back in the rotation (18 min) and registered 11 PTS and went 2-for-3 from 3PT with little else in the box score. Ziaire is only 22 years old, so we canāt write the book on him yet, but Year 3 hasnāt shown us many flashes of upside beyond being a volume 3PT shooter.
šøA couple of garbage time minutes for Josh Minott and Leonard Miller. They remain strong stashes in leagues rostering 175-200+ players but itās unlikely either cracks the rotation unless the Wolves encounter more injuries.
CHA 117 @ ORL 130
šøLaMelo Ball appeared to suffer a significant right ankle sprain on a rough fall in the second quarter - the same ankle that was repeatedly sprained and ultimately fractured last season. Ball said at Media Day that heād wear ankle braces this season - like Steph Curry did early in his career after repeated ankle issues - but itās unclear if Ball maintained wearing them into the season. We await news of the severity of the sprain, but this is obviously a bad development.
šøWeāve been calling for the Franz Wagner breakout game all month based on the underlying metrics and it happened here - 30 PTS | 2-3 3PT | 7 REB | 2 AST | 2 STL | 9-12 2PT | 6-9 FT in 35 minutes. His usage is at a career-high 25.3% and heās driving to the rim and drawing fouls consistently - 84th percentile drive rate, 77th percentile foul drawing rate. Now that heās finishing at the rim consistently (26-34, 76.5% in his last four games), expect more big lines like this going forward.
šøPaolo Banchero has been wildly consistent over the last five games - scoring 23, 23, 23, 25, and 24 points, bolstered by 10-19 3PT shooting (52.6%). If this 3PT shooting is real (43.6% on the season), Paolo is about to have a massive Year 2 breakout campaign.
šøBrandon Miller will get extended run with LaMelo out and had the 3rd 20+ point game of his career against the Magic. Miller is 11-20 (55%) from three in his last five games and continues to find his shot in the midrange (71st percentile efficiency, 72nd percentile volume). Add in five steals in his last five games and you can see the outlines of a fantasy breakout on the horizon.
šøMark Williams was limited to 22 minutes because of foul trouble but still had a solid 12 PTS | 6 REB | 1 ST | 1 BLK. Williams has actually reduced his foul rate from 4.1 fouls per 36 to 3.2 fouls per 36 this season. Heāll bounce back quickly.
šøCole Anthony - 30 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 7 REB | 7 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 8-13 2PT | 11-12 FT - is going to be a starting point guard in the NBA, even if it isnāt with the Orlando Magic. His free throw rate is 95th percentile and his drive rate is 93rd percentile - both huge indicators of star potential. Heās played 29+ minutes in five of ORLās last six games and the Magic would be wise to keep him there even after Fultzās eventual return.
šøJalen Suggs continued to look like the best defensive guard in the league and his steal rate is at a career-high 3.3% (97th percentile). Solid efficiency at the rim (62.5%) and from three (36.2%) are making him passable in the halfcourt offensively, which is more than enough to keep on the court for 30+ minutes a night as a starter across his prime.
šøAnthony Black started again but scored only 2 points in 15 minutes. He hasnāt hit a three pointer since November 9 and looks like he would benefit from some time with the Lakeland Magic after Fultz returns.
šøThe Magic have been giving spot minutes to Caleb Houstan over the last two weeks but thereās nothing to see here from a fantasy perspective - a 3PT specialist with nothing else to his fantasy game.
PHO 116 @ NYK 113
šøThese reports will continue to give credit to Immanuel Quickley until heās fully appreciated. 18 PTS | 3-6 3PT | 5 REB | 2 AST | 7-8 FT in 29 minutes. Quickley has a 63.2 true shooting % on drives this season (81st percentile) and his drive rate and foul drawing all scream for more minutes. A team with cap space would be wise to throw a massive offer sheet to IQ in the offseason to make the Knicks match.
šøThe Quentin Grimes dream appears to be dead - for now. Only 20 minutes here and he hasnāt cracked 30 minutes since November 3rd. His steal rate and 3PT shooting are at career-highs but averaging 24 mpg on 12.1% usage just isnāt fantasy viable.
ATL 103 @ BOS 113
šøOnyeka Okongwu is averaging only 22.8 minutes per game and his raw stat averages arenāt going to excite fantasy managers (9.0 PTS | 6.8 REB | 1.5 AST | 0.9 BLK) but heās improved his efficiency at the rim this season (71.7%), is shooting 91.4% from the free throw line, and is averaging 1.3 blocks per game across his last nine outings, despite sharing minutes with Capela. Enjoy solid production now and breakout production once the Hawks finally make Onyeka a big minute starter.
šøNo Jalen Johnson until January - my heart hurts. But we did get a little more AJ Griffin in this game - 12 minutes - and might get more in future games if Wesley Matthews, who went to the locker room in this one - misses time.
šøNeemias Queta has been a deep dynasty stash for a few years now based on his massive block rate at Utah State (13.25%) and in the G League. Queta played 15 minutes against the Hornets with Porzingis out and posted 7 PTS | 10 REB | 1 STL. I donāt expect Queta - who is on a two-way contract with Boston - to play over Luke Kornet most nights, but he should be on your watch list for the per-minute upside.
TOR 102 @ CLE 105
šøScottie Barnes (15 PTS | 8 REB | 3 AST) has struggled from the midrange (38.9% on 86th percentile volume) in recent weeks after a hot start, which has dragged his scoring numbers down. The 3PT shooting leap continues - 37.6% on increased volume - and he registered another block against the Cavs and has 9 steals in his last four games. Heās not a finished product at 22 years old but the current version is extremely impressive.
šøEvan Mobley (12 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 14 REB | 1 AST | 2 BLK | 5-13 2PT | 2-2 FT) hasnāt hit a three pointer since October 28th and he struggled on a high volume of midrange attempts in this game (3 for 8). Like Scottie Barnes, Mobley is not yet in his prime and development is NOT linear - meaning a leap could come in Year 4 or beyond - it just hasnāt happened yet.
šøCraig Porter Jr. was out of the rotation as the Cavs focused on big minutes for their starting five and a limited bench behind them. Heās a clear hold in mid-to-deep dynasty formats and Iād expect him to be in the rotation again soon.
CHI 109 @ BKN 118
šøPatrick Williams started and posted his most efficient line of the season - 20 PTS | 4-5 3PT | 4 REB | 3-4 2PT | 2-2 FT in 35 minutes. Consistently hitting catch-and-shoot threes like this would be revolutionary for Williamsā long-term trajectory and he continues to have nice scoring flashes on drives. His defense has been as good as ever, so thereās potential for the starting role to hold as the Bullsā defensive rating has fallen significantly from last season.
šøCoby White went 5-12 from three on his way to 23 PTS against the Nets - his third 20+ point game in the Bullsā last four. Heās averaging 36 minutes per game across that span and has evolved into one of the better young, high-volume 3PT shooters in the game. The playmaking is solid but unspectacular but this level of shooting should keep Coby in big minutes.
šøNic Claxton was out and we finally got 27 minutes for DayāRon Sharpe, who had a solid night (9 PTS | 9 REB | 3 AST | 1 BLK | 4-5 2PT). Sharpe even attempted (and missed) a couple 3PT - the Nets have been attempting to stretch him out to three since his rookie season. Itās been a good third year so far for Sharpe who appears to have a long-term floor as a strong backup center.
šøAnother quality showing from Trendon Watford (11 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 4 REB | 2 AST | 1 STL | 4-6 2PT ) in 17 minutes off the bench. Watford probably doesnāt stick in the rotation once the Nets are healthy again but heās flashed a strong fantasy game at 23 years old across his three seasons so far and remains a solid stash in leagues rostering 300+ players.
SAS 120 @ DEN 132
šøVictor Wembanyama played only 25 minutes and posted 22 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 11 REB | 2 AST | 6 STL | 4 BLK | 5-12 2PT | 6-7 FT. The Spursā clogged offense is forcing him into too many midrange shots, but thatās why thereās so much upside long-term - this is Wemby playing in a terrible offense and a non-optimized role. Once the Spurs put even adequate playmaking and spacing around him, Victor isnāt leaving the top 5 in fantasy production for the rest of his prime.
šøJeremy Sochan left with knee soreness after 17 minutes played (4 PTS | 2 REB | 3 AST | 2-5 2PT). Itās been hard to find a bright spot in Sochanās second season but I remain confident that much better years are ahead once the Spurs move him into a proper role for his talent.
šø15 points on 3-5 3PT shooting from Malaki Branham in only 25 minutes. He was 2-21 from three in his prior six games so this was a much-needed showing. If the 3PT shooting doesnāt make a leap, Branham wonāt make it as a prospect.
šøCharles Bassey got to play 15 minutes in this game and delivered (9 PTS | 6 REB | 2 AST | 1 BLK). Heās one of the best per-minute REB and BLK producers in the NBA, which makes him a premium stash option in case he ever gets a larger role.
šøTwo 3PT, four AST, and three STL for Julian Strawther in 19 minutes. His role has been entirely inconsistent so far but I think he settles in as a long-term rotation wing for the Nuggets in Year 2 and beyond if he figures out NBA defense.
šøExtended action for Peyton Watson (22 min) with Aaron Gordon out, but the offensive role remains minimal (13.9% usage). Watson blocked 2 shots - boosting him to a 95th percentile block rate on the season. Newly 21 years old - weāre going to need patience with Watson, but I still think he can be a starter in his prime.
ā”G League Lightning Roundā”
Ron Holland II
24 PTS | 3-4 3PT | 5 REB | 2 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 6-12 2PT | 3-4 FT | 25 MIN
Taylor Hendricks
13 PTS | 3-8 3PT | 11 REB | 2 AST | 3 STL | 2 BLK | 1-8 2PT | 1-2 FT | 33 MIN
Jett Howard
17 PTS | 1-6 3PT | 3 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 2 BLK | 7-10 2PT | 32 MIN
Brice Sensabaugh
14 PTS | 2-5 3PT | 6 REB | 3 AST | 2 STL | 2-4 2PT | 2-2 FT | 25 MIN
Izan Almansa
11 PTS | 1-1 3PT | 9 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 4-6 2PT | 0-3 FT | 33 MIN
GG Jackson
12 PTS | 1-5 3PT | 5 REB | 2 BLK | 3-8 2PT | 3-3 FT | 36 MIN
Orlando Robinson
13 PTS | 1-2 3PT | 13 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 4 BLK | 5-13 2PT | 0-2 FT | 27 MIN
Dominick Barlow
28 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 4 REB | 1 AST | 11-13 2PT | 2-4 FT | 35 MIN
Tyler Smith
12 PTS | 1-7 3PT | 8 REB | 6 AST | 2-10 2PT | 3-4 FT | 31 MIN
Colin Castleton
16 PTS | 12 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 7-9 2PT | 2-3 FT | 24 MIN
Sidy Cissoko
11 PTS | 1-3 3PT | 3 REB | 3 AST | 1 STL | 1 BLK | 4-4 2PT | 21 MIN
Rayan Rupert
19 PTS | 3-7 3PT | 6 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 5-13 2PT | 0-3 FT | 33 MIN
Blake Wesley
17 PTS | 3-9 3PT | 6 REB | 4 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 3-7 2PT | 2-4 FT | 30 MIN
Wendell Moore Jr.
15 PTS | 2-6 3PT | 13 REB | 4 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 4-10 2PT | 1-1 FT | 39 MIN
Charles Bediako
8 PTS | 10 REB | 1 AST | 2 STL | 1 BLK | 3-6 2PT | 1-1 FT | 25 MIN
Jason Preston
16 PTS | 0-1 3PT | 13 REB | 12 AST | 2 STL | 7-12 2PT | 1-2 FT | 37 MIN
Dereon Seabron
22 PTS | 2-4 3PT | 7 REB | 4 AST | 1 STL | 6-8 2PT | 2-5 FT | 38 MIN
Johnny Juzang
15 PTS | 3-5 3PT | 2 REB | 3-3 2PT | 34 MIN
Comments
Matt Lawson
Yes - I sent a message to everyone about that. The reports take 3-4 hours per day to research and draft and werenāt getting much positive response. Iām going to focus on other content and start doing weekly reports covering prospect developments.
Hey Matt, I love the dynasty report in my inbox. I immediately noticed that I didnt get one in the last days!
Matt, logged in to share my appreciation for these posts. I tend to read them without leaving my gmail, so there's little opportunity for "likes" or other interaction - but I look forward to every post. Please keep up the good work.
