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ALL ACCESS - 2024 NBA Draft Big Board Preview
🕑 Added 2023-12-13 18:02:46 +0000 UTCI've spent the last two weeks digging into the 2024 NBA Draft class and I've returned with some big takeaways.
First, a couple warnings:
-SMALL SAMPLE SIZE WARNING. We are VERY early in the process - the sample size is small and the college prospects have played a majority of their games against inferior competition. I usually see that college prospects' fantasy projections dip as the season goes on, so be cautious not to overvalue early season numbers from college prospects.
-THIS IS ONLY THE CONSENSUS LOTTERY PROSPECTS. If you follow my work, you know I'm going to dig into every draft eligible prospect by the time the draft rolls around next offseason. For now, I'm starting with the 14 prospects that the big media draft boards have as consensus lottery picks right now. Future editions will add in prospects like Kel'el Ware, Dalton Knecht, Justin Edwards, Terrence Shannon Jr. and Bub Carrington who just missed the cut for this lottery preview.
Second, here are my big takeaways:
-Nikola Topić is the 1.01 of the 2024 class. Topić's performance for Mega across 14 games as an 18-year old should have him at the top of every NBA Draft board. He's the youngest top prospect in this class and is already a pick-n-roll maestro against grown men - we've seen this kind of teenage production before in professional leagues from players like Nikola Jokic, Luka Doncic, Alperen Sengun, and Victor Wembanyama - and we know what that means. Some of your league mates might think this class has no crown jewel or they may think the top prize is Alex Sarr or Isaiah Collier - they're wrong.
-Isaiah Collier's fantasy stat set is a problem. Until flatlining against Long Beach State, there was a lot of buzz around Collier as the #1 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. He may still end up going #1 because of the league's bias toward prospects who play on top NCAA programs, but he has no business going #1 in your dynasty rookie draft. Maybe he improves the three point volume, hits more free throws, and stops being a turnover machine - but I don't like what I see so far.
-There are going to be some great fantasy role players in this draft. You'll see I have players like Kyle Filipowski, Reed Sheppard, Ryan Dunn and Rob Dillingham at the back-end of this list despite projecting them all to have strong to elite fantasy stat sets. That's because the big media draft gurus aren't all on board with them as lottery picks on their boards and they may not end up getting lottery draft capital. With that said, I love all four of them from a fantasy perspective and I'm eager to see where they land this offseason.
-This is going to be a draft where we lap the field. The narrative around this draft is that it's a bad class - and that very well may be true from an NBA talent evaluation perspective. The draft lacks the usual star talent you see at the top. BUT from a fantasy perspective, there is going to be so much value that most of your league is not going to see. That's why we do this work so early and why I'll keep doing it for the next seven months. This is where we win and I hope you all stick with me through the season as I keep updating my board.
-Matt
Comments
Zen as fuck
Injured for 6 weeks it seems. Matt, would you give potential top 5 pick on this draft for Okongwu? In a situation when I can maybe fight for a playoff this season but more looking to the future and especially next 4-5 seasons where I want to be a contender. Seems to me Okongwu can help me immediately starting from next season (especially if he finally become starting C) while there is a big chance I will need to wait for a rookie another few seasons to get a proper contribution.
Zen as fuck
Topić is now playing for Crvena Zvezda, which is level above. Let's see how he will do it in the second part of the season
Matt Lawson
He shot 37% from three last season across 37 games and he’s increased both his volume and number of pull-up attempts this year. The best indicators for future 3PT shooting success for prospects are FT% and 3PT attempt volume. Topic is looking strong in both areas - I’m very optimistic on his shot.
Shirtless Jr
Although Iv only seen a few high light games of topic. I can see what you mean about his pick and roll game. Looks great driving to the hoop and seems to have good feel and a basketball iq. But I’d like to know what you thought about his shot? Looks like a kind of push shot where he never looks quite set. Do you have any confidence that he can get to be a 36 - 37% shooter…?
Couldn't agree more with the untapped value of the class, and the importance of getting in early "Bad draft" = no clear cut phenom prospect(s) at the top, but that doesn't mean there aren't great fantasy prospects (and that doesn't even get into how silly it is to write off *an entire draft* before any of them have played a college game) Great stuff Matt!
Matt Lawson
You can go back to my initial big board in December of 2022 (posted here on Patreon) and see how those initial projections stack up. Topic would be a top 30-40 asset in my rankings right now but I wouldn't have any others inside the top 50.
Hey Matt. Thanks for the rankings and analysis as always. I wasn’t a Patreon member last year so I would be curious how the guys last year were ranked around this time, with the amount of stars you gave them and such. As you note, it’s not perceived to be a great class. Where do you think the top 2 or 3 players would slot in if it was combined with this past class? Right under the Thompson twins, higher, lower? Curious on your thoughts. Thanks
