MMA Breakdowns and Bets
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Santino's UFC breakdowns
🕑 Added 2025-03-15 05:01:59 +0000 UTCHola from Mexico City, Bitches! I'm down here in Polanco trying not to get Montezuma's revenge and scrounging fight tape through spotty, cartel wifi. But here I am, and here are my thoughts on a good majority of the fight card. (If I didn't write about it, don't ask me about it!)
Carli Judice vs Yuneisy Duben
Welp, here we go again: Judice, who I loved in her last fight, and lost against the worst fighter to ever step in a cage, and won her last fight.
Well, Judice is a very good striker. Great volume. Beautiful footwork and angles. She did take too many punches early in her last fight.
Duben: Well, nothing changes. She is horrible. Stiff, reaches, has an overhand.
I have to scream Judice here. She’s green, but good. Duben is horrible. I hope lightning doesn’t strike twice.
Barez vs Lima
I love me some Barez. His forward boxing. Mixing in body work. Timing on takedowns. Even has decent grappling. But he rushes forward. He reaches when people swing on him. He’s all offense and very little defense. And he slows down.
Lima is calm. Too calm sometimes and could benefit from a bit of a sense of urgency. His chin is high. But he’s fast. Beautiful timing and cat like reflexes. He loves his lead elbows, which didn’t land in his last fight as he was the aggressor, but with Barez’s forward pressure, those elbows will find a home.
Lima inside the distance.
Chidi vs Zeleski
Zeleski is the bad cardio killer. We see him regularly take out people who come in hot, but can’t keep the pace. He’s good. I can’t believe he didn’t have a more illustrious career, and now he’s in the twilight of it. Very solid muay thai foundation. Great fundamentals. Takedown defense is fantastic. Good cardio. He tends to beat grapplers who he can defend the takedown against and then score. He also tends to beat guys as they fade.
Chidi is a great muay thai striker in his own right. Fast straight down the middle. Knees fly up. Checks kicks. Fades bad after he hurts people, but at the new weight class (that he missed weight for), maybe his cardio sticks around a bit. He does have decent bjj, but his wrestling isn’t amazing. Pressure is his kryptonite.
I like Chidi here by decision. Maybe Ko, but decision is where I lean because Zeleski is fundamentally sound. I expect Chidi to win round one without a lot of pressure from Zeleski, and then that leaves Chidi’s gas tank full enough to fight, and probably win round two. Then, even if he’s tired, I doubt he gets finished in round three. Chidi Chidi bang bang, people!
Musasa vs Vera
In a card full of mismatches, this one may not be quite as mismatched as it seems on paper. Now, hear me out before you pass judgment. In a world where all John Malkovich’s look like Ryan Hall, Vera is no different. Vera is weird. He’s old. His stand up is non existent. His wrestling isn’t that great. But he’s awkward, and has good submission skills, and his opponent trains in Africa where they think wrestling involves some sort of genocide.
Mufasa is athletic. His striking is actually good too, and as a southpaw, he knows to send that straight left into people’s souls. He pressures well, but at a tempered manner. His cardio is pretty good for how wild he fights. Holy Timon and Pumba, that kid cannot wrestle to save his life! But he somehow Derrick Lewis’s his way back to his feet.
I expect Mufasa to win via auro, but seeing Vera get the submission upset (AJ vs Themba ring a bell?) wouldn’t be the craziest thing I’ve ever seen.
Kevin Vellajos vs Choi
Oh, hell, here we are again with another Choi fight. Brandan and I talk him up. Fawning over his left hook and charming Korean looks, only to be sad when the off button gets hit for the 53rd time in a row. Choi is a maniac. Stabs the jab. Big, lead left hook that doesn’t turn at an angle, but opens from a massive arc. “Hey, Kevin, I’m going to throw this now.” He may as well employ a carrier pigeon to send a scroll alerting him of the left coming. Shit, Choi is legitimately good on a skill level besides the telegraphing. His wrestling is decent. Cardio is decent. BJJ is decent. But his fight IQ and chin? Aren’t Koreans supposed to be the smart ones? Are his parents from Missouri?
Vellajos is fundamentally sound. And he’s going to take advantage of the way Choi steps into that jab. Kevin is going to fire his overhand over the top of that jab and then fire a left hook to the body and another two to three punches upstairs before the pocket breaks. His head movement is great. Body work is great. Makes the right reads. Has beaten everyone outside of THE Lord Jean Silva.
On paper everything tells me Kevin wins this. He checks every single box. But he does lack power, and he’s small. I wouldn’t be shocked for Choi to son this little boy. Vellajos checks the boxes, so I guess I’ll say he wins. But I am just not sold on him and I don’t know why. Maybe I’m just a hater.
Alex Hernandez vs Kurt Holobaugh
I’m not sure if I spelled Kurt’s last name correctly, and I’m not even trying. It’s like trying to find a matching pair of socks in your drawer. If you spend more than three seconds trying to find two socks that match, you have too much time on your hands.
Alex left Factory X, and I think that’s the best thing for him. Their camp is good for a lot of people, but Alex isn’t one of them. He should be with Hooft or Black House—somewhere that will allow him to be a pitbull, and not try to tame him into a poodle. He’s athletic and does so much well, but he tries to move like Chris Guitierrez, and that’s not good for him. He needs to let his nuts swing with his fists, but they’re in a tight pair of undies. He WANTS to be technical and do the right thing, and I think that’s his hindrance. But he is athletic.
Holobaugh is Billy Q, but at a higher weight class. Spitting image. I can’t tell either apart. Kurt’s old as dinosaur bones, and as dense as them too, but he can fight. And he can box, and he can pressure and he wont get tired. His wrestling sucks, and he plays off of his back too much, but he’s also hard to finish.
I expect this fight to be determined by Alex’s fight IQ. Does he wrestle and put Kurt on the mat or does he take his undies off and let his nuts swing, the one time he should keep them bunched up next to his body? In a fight between two apes, I think I see the one with the ability to win without his brain coming out on top here: Kurt.
Diyar vs Riberio
The UFC wants one of these guys to win, and the other to die a slow, Amazonian death. You do the math here, it’s not complicated.
Vetorri vs Dolidze
Another Ape vs Ape fight. Why is this happening? I don’t know. Dolidze is old(er), but surprisingly does such a good job of finding his mark and hurting opponents. He’s awkward, but his middle kick lands. Then he power bombs people and then one punches others. It doesn’t make sense. I’m sure if you go far enough through the lineage, him and DDP’s families meet. He’s athletic, old, and pea brained. But he’s powerful and has great submissions.
Vettori is the heavier version of Colby Covington to me. He has great cardio. Great volume. Can wrestle, and couldn’t hurt a fly. But they talk a good game and are marketed by the promotion for some reason.
I like Dolidze’s chances more in a three round fight, and I kind of thought he won the first outing, but we’re at five rounds now, and Vettori just gets better as the clock ticks. Vettori by decision, as that’s all he ever wins by. Go fight goes over 3.5 for a super safe bet. Then go fight goes the distance for a better bet. Then Vettori by decision to cap off this abomination of an abortion of a card.
Comments
Santino DeFranco
Always! -Santino
rusty tennakoon
Thanks for doing this while so much else is going on
