Brett Kollmann
patreon
NFL Picks Against The Spread: Week 1
🕑 Added 2019-09-08 10:08:12 +0000 UTCWeek one is finally here! Now that the lines have finally settled down because of all of this Antonio Brown nonsense, I can get down to business and release my first official picks against the spread for the 2019 season.
All of these lines are taken directly from MyBookie, my season long sponsor, so if you are interested in betting on any of these too-good-to-pass-up lines, feel free to enter promo code Brett at this link for a huge 100% deposit bonus on any deposit up to $1,000!
https://bit.ly/BrettKollmann19-20
And with that, let's get to these games.
CHIEFS (-3.5) @ JAGUARS
I’m taking the Chiefs to cover the 3.5 spread in this one. The Jags, as usual, are dealing with multiple injuries at tackle, and may be without both Cam Robinson AND Cedric Ogbuehi, their primary swing tackle. That’s not exactly ideal when your offensive line is going to be dealing with Frank Clark and Chris Jones all day long.
Jacksonville is going to have to pass, and pass A LOT, to stay in this game against an explosive Chiefs offense, and with limited healthy receiving options and an already-banged-up offensive line, I just don’t see them being able to do that. Jacksonville’s defense is still loaded with talent, yes, but it just won’t be enough to keep this one close.
Side note…play Travis Kelce in your daily fantasy contests, regardless of his price. He's going to go OFF.
FALCONS @ VIKINGS (-3.5)
I actually like the Falcons to pull off the upset on the road here. The Vikings are dealing with depth issues at corner right now with Mike Hughes still recovering from a knee injury, and Holton Hill being suspended. Xavier Rhodes and Julio Jones are likely going to battle all game long in a fairly even matchup, but the Falcons second, third, and fourth receiving options are all very juicy matchups for Atlanta. I would expect Calvin Ridley to be the biggest X-factor in this game, both outside and in the slot, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him put up more numbers than every other big-name receiver in this game for BOTH teams.
On top of that, Atlanta has completely remade their offensive line this past offseason, and I don’t think that vaunted Vikings front seven will be able to tee off on Matt Ryan as easily as they have in the past few years. Throw in the sneaky talented Falcons defense ALSO being fully healthy for…basically the first time in two years…and I see them being able to just barely edge out a tough Vikings team on the road. This will be a close game, but a win for Atlanta none the less.
TITANS @ BROWNS (-6)
I think the Browns cover that very, very generous six-point spread. Tennessee is without their star left tackle, Taylor Lewan (suspension), and they are already dealing with a lingering knee injury for left guard Kevin Pamphile as well. There’s a conceivable scenario here where the Titans are starting two backups on the left side of the line against Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi, which is honestly a catastrophic thought for Marcus Mariota.
Mariota struggles in tight pockets as it is – he always has – and now we’re asking him to be poised in a constantly SHREDDED pocket? Yeah…that’s probably not gonna happen. The Browns offense is loaded outside of the tackle position, and without steady pass protection I just don’t believe the Titans can keep up. If Lewan were not suspended, this game would be very different.
BILLS @ JETS (-2.5)
I think the Jets cover at home. They are a really underrated team from top to bottom, with very few glaring weaknesses. Gang Green’s corners are obviously a major problem, but Buffalo’s receiving corps isn’t exactly scary enough to make them pay for it, either. The key battle to watch in this one is the Bills interior offensive line against the Jets interior defensive line. Just on pure talent alone, I lean towards the Jets foursome of Williams, McClendon, Anderson, and Williams, but this should still be a really fun matchup due to Buffalo’s additions of Morse and Spain in the offseason. IF the Bills offensive line can open up some holes to let Devin Singletary do his thing, they have a chance…but that’s a big if.
I’m also a bigger believer in Sam Darnold, Le’Veon Bell, and Robby Anderson than I am in Josh Allen, John Brown, and Robert Foster. If somehow this game turns into a shootout (which I doubt it will because of the quality of defenses on the field), I trust Sam to protect the ball and keep pace the most. I’ll lean Jets by 3 at home.
RAVENS (-7) @ DOLPHINS
Literally the only reason this line is only seven points is because the game is in Miami in September, which is traditionally one of the most brutally difficult home field advantages to overcome in the league for road teams. It’s hot, it’s muggy, and the stadium is specifically designed to concentrate the sun on that visitor sideline with zero shade, and with no tarps allowed by NFL rule (because the Dolphins themselves don’t use them). If this game were in Baltimore, the line would be two possessions, easily, but unfortunately it’s not.
I still think Baltimore covers…barely…but this game is going to be messy from start to finish. The Ravens are deep enough to keep rotating on defense, especially in the front seven, to survive the heat, but man it’s going to be tough to recover from this game. They’ll earn the win just on talent differential at home, but it won’t be easy. If I were a betting man, and I am, John Harbaugh is going to run the ball forty times, shorten the game, and get the hell on that plane immediately after the clock hits zero to go back to better weather.
REDSKINS @ EAGLES (-10)
Don’t get me wrong, I think the Eagles will win this game…but a 10-point spread seems a little bit generous. Yes, the Skins are without their star left tackle (for forever, I guess), and Case Keenum isn’t a great quarterback, but we’re still talking about a tough divisional matchup between two teams that know each other very well, and a game where the underdog team has a fantastic front seven that can give the favorite a lot of problems.
Talent gap or no talent gap, division games are almost ALWAYS closer than you expect them to be. Carson Wentz is going to have to throw the ball 40 times in this game because running against Washington is really tough sledding (when they are healthy, at least, which they are), and if Josh Norman and Landon Collins can have themselves a couple of vintage performances…this game could get really interesting, really fast.
Again, I expect the Eagles to win, but Washington’s defense is going to be a bit too salty for this to be a two-possession game. If anything, I would expect a win by four or five points, and nothing more.
RAMS (-2) @ PANTHERS
Alright, I’m calling it…Panthers are going to upset the Rams in Carolina. All of the pieces are there for it:
1. A super star, MVP-caliber quarterback that is finally healthy again
2. A diverse and highly explosive array of weapons that can rip off big gains in a variety of ways.
3. A well-coached defense that has more front seven talent than it’s had in YEARS.
4. A secondary that isn’t finally overmatched every time they step on the field.
The Rams are still going to do their thing and make a lot of big plays on offense, and probably force at least one crucial turnover (I’m predicting a John Johnson interception off a tipped ball, just for giggles), but there are few quarterbacks I’m more scared of than Cam Newton when he truly gets rolling. If he gets into a groove with Christian McCaffrey, D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Greg Olsen…woof…look out. That’s as scary a group on offense as you’ll see anywhere in the NFL, I can promise you that.
The key matchups to watch are Javien Elliott vs Cooper Kupp in the slot when the Rams are on offense, and Cory Littleton vs Christian McCaffrey when the Panthers are on offense. Both of those receiving options are likely going to lead their respective teams in catches this year, and both of them are going to be the primary chain movers on third and medium or third and long situations. It is absolutely critical that both Elliott and Littleton contain the damage that those two can do against man coverage on big time downs. If they can’t win, or at least just survive in those matchups, we could be in for one hell of a shootout.
COLTS @ CHARGERS (-6.5)
Call me crazy, but I think people are disrespecting Jacoby Brissett a lot more than he deserves. He may not be Andrew Luck, but I’m a huge believer in the development that I’ve seen in Brissett since he arrived in Indianapolis. This dude is NOT the same quarterback that got himself sacked 10 times by Jacksonville because of poor decision making and poor pocket presence two seasons ago. He’s lightyears ahead of that now, both mentally and mechanically, and I think he’s going to prove it with a huge statement upset, on the road, against a heavily favorited Chargers squad.
The Colts still have a beastly offensive line, a nice variety of weapons headlined by T.Y. Hilton and Marlon Mack, a great coaching staff, and a really underrated defense that has played far above their talent level (like I said…great coaches). Even if they don’t manage to win this game, they are such a tough, disciplined, well-coached team that matches up so well against the Chargers personnel, that it’s really hard for me to believe that LA can win this one by a touchdown or more. If anything, this is going to be a three or four point game at the absolute max, but either way I would still bet on Indy to cover this line comfortably.
BENGALS @ SEAHAWKS (-10)
The Bengals are already severely banged up on the offensive line, they are significantly overmatched on talent at basically every position but running back and corner, and they have a rookie head coach…on the road…in one of the most intimidating stadiums in all of sports. Yeah…that should go well.
I don’t normally pick blowouts of 10 points or more because it’s HARD to blow teams out in the NFL, but this game just reeks of Seattle going up 14-0 in the first quarter, and then pounding the rock with Carson and Penny for the rest of the game until the clock runs out. This smells like a 24-13 Seattle win, with 10 of those Bengals points coming in the last six or seven minutes of the game when it’s already over, just for the sake of giving sports betters like me a heart attack.
Poor Andy :(
GIANTS @ COWBOYS (-7)
I’m not sure that I buy the Cowboys blowing out the Giants in this one, even if it is in Dallas. I think the Giants defense is going to be a lot more stingy than people expect this season, even with their lack of true star power, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Dexter Lawrence is a big factor in keeping this game close. He’s one of the most talented nose tackles I’ve ever seen, and if ANY young DT prospect can go blow for blow with Travis Frederick for four quarters and survive in his first career game, I think it’s him.
Yes, Dallas will (probably) win just because they are a much deeper overall roster with a better offensive line, run game, receiving corps, and front seven, but these Giants are going to be extremely scrappy. They’ll be fighting tooth and nail the whole way, and I don’t think Dallas is ever really going to be able to slam the door shut on them. Cowboys win, but it will be closer than you expect.
49ERS @ BUCCANEERS (-1)
Man, talk about a nightmare matchup for week one for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This is a roster that struggles with getting to their run fits in time, can’t stop tight ends at all, and can’t pass protect worth a damn, and they are going up against a team that runs the ball as much as possible, feeds their all-world tight end on passing downs, and has an extremely talented defensive line that can relentlessly hunt down quarterbacks. As far as matchups go, this is one of the last ones that Tampa wanted to see to start the season.
The Bucs being favored, even at home, just doesn’t make sense to me because all of their personnel and schematic weaknesses are so, SO in favor of what the 49ers do well…and yet here we are with Tampa sitting at -1. I just don’t get it…but sure I guess I’ll just bet San Francisco at +1 and feel better about it. I’ve always been a fan of easy lines, I suppose.
LIONS (-3) @ CARDINALS
I love, love, LOVE the Lions’ matchups for this game. They may be dealing with a few banged up starters at the moment, but they are so damn deep in the trenches that I STILL think that they are going to be able to overmatch the Cardinals on both sides of the line of scrimmage. I expect the Arizona defense to get a healthy dose of Kerryon Johnson with a few big bombs to Kenny Golladay on the side (remember, Patrick Peterson is still suspended), while on offense I expect David Johnson to struggle to find any sort of room to work against Harrison, Robinson, Daniels, Flowers, and the rest of the group.
This Lions front seven is seriously loaded, and if there is one thing that the Cardinals are not equipped to handle, it’s strong defensive line rotations that compress pockets and limit escape routes for Kyler Murray. Obviously Kyler is still going to make some spectacular plays – he always does – but this is one of the toughest possible matchups for him to face in his first real game because they are literally built FROM THE GROUND UP to stop mobile quarterbacks (cough cough Trubisky and Rodgers).
Unless Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald, and Andy Isabella whoop ass all up and down the field and get open early and often, I don’t think the Cardinals are going to be able to move the ball very easily. I’ve got Detroit by six.
STEELERS @ PATRIOTS (-5.5)
Jeez…talk about loaded storylines, right? Antonio Brown is not allowed to be on the sidelines for this game by league rule, but I’ve got to imagine that the Steelers want to beat the crap out of New England even more than they already did just for the sake of sending a very pointed message – “we don’t need you”.
And you know what, they’re right. I think the Steelers are going to be a much better team this year despite their losses in perceived star power. This is the most disciplined, most focused, and most unified Steelers roster that I’ve seen in several years, and discipline and focus matter a whole hell of a lot when two contending teams face off. There is an air about them that brings me back to the mid to late 2000s Pittsburgh teams that weren’t flashy, but still intimidated the shit out of everyone they played against – I missed THAT kind of Steelers football so damn much. I’m glad it’s back.
In terms of personnel and systemic matchups, I think the Steelers defense is one of the few that actually can give Tom Brady fits. They change up looks constantly, roll coverages all over the place after the snap, trail motions across the field to bluff man coverage even if they are in zone – all sorts of wacky shit like that. They may not have the pure talent level of Chicago or Dallas, but this is a well-coached and disciplined unit that knows how to attack from every angle, and their ability to confuse even the greatest QBs of all time gives them a distinct place among the league’s elite defenses.
This is probably going to be a relatively low scoring game – maybe something like 17-14 or even 20-17 in either direction. I’m not 100 percent sure who will win outright, but I do know that this game is going to be a bit closer than five and a half points. I’m betting the Steelers to cover.
TEXANS @ SAINTS (-6.5)
Deshaun Watson, DeAndre Hopkins, and Will Fuller have played 11 career games together in two years. In those 11 games, Watson threw 30 touchdowns, and the Texans averaged nearly 31 points per game. Hell, Hopkins and Fuller ALONE had 23 touchdowns…in 11 games…and that was all while Houston had arguably the worst offensive line in the league.
Deshaun Watson now has legitimate blind side protection in Laremy Tunsil – a massive upgrade to Julien Davenport, who gave up a pressure on literally every 9th Watson drop back last season – and his interior pass protection should be much improved as well with the addition of Tytus Howard at guard. If you thought this Texans offense could do a lot of damage through the air before, just wait until you see what they can do now.
I expect this game to be a points bonanza for both sides with Brees and Watson going blow for blow in an epic Monday Night showdown for the ages. The over/under for this game is 52, and I honestly don’t think that’s high enough; if both teams don’t score 30, I would be surprised. No matter what the final score is, though, I still think it will be much closer than this six and a half point spread. I’ll take Houston to cover that comfortably.
BRONCOS (-2) @ RAIDERS
I don’t know what the hell is going on in Oakland right now, but I’m sure that even though the team lost multiple draft assets for nothing and got essentially bamboozled by the Patriots, they are just relieved to finally be done with Antonio Brown. The team can now get back to normal, the media can stop losing their minds, and Jon Gruden and just go back to actually coaching football instead of being the subject of awkward, illegally-filmed YouTube videos.
Honestly, I truly believe that the Raiders will be a better team without Brown, just like I believe the Steelers will be better without him. The damage he does to locker rooms is not worth the yards he puts up on the field, and Oakland will be stronger and more focused moving forward without him. Hell, I believe that so vehemently that I damn near bet on the Raiders in this game…but I just couldn’t quite pull the trigger.
I still do think the Broncos will win by a field goal, but that’s a much narrower victory than the one I was expecting when AB was still on the Raiders roster. That Broncos defense is going to be incredibly tough to crack, and I don’t think Derek Carr will have nearly enough clean time in the pocket to wait for those long-developing cover four beaters to come open way down the field. My projections for this game were never based on a certain wide receiver playing or not playing, but rather they revolved around the matchups on the line of scrimmage. And Denver – in my opinion – wins all of those matchups handily.
Oakland can’t block Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, and I don’t think their front seven is talented enough to shut down the wide zone run game either. I would love to be proven wrong, because God knows that Raiders fans need a win right now, but I just don’t see it happening this week.
Broncos by three.
Comments
Brett Kollmann
Like picks for week one?
Brett Kollmann
I don't do any fantasy content during the season unfortunately, only before the season. Each film room episode takes around 60 hours to do, sometimes more, so I just can't find much time to do any fantasy content on top of that outside of the fantasy draft season.
Where’s week 1.
Hey do you change you fantasy rankings throughout the year or are you done changing them?
