Brett Kollmann
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NFL Picks Against The Spread: Week 2
🕑 Added 2019-09-15 16:30:11 +0000 UTCSeason record so far: 7-10 (week one was not kind to me)
Just in time to place your last minute bets this week, here are my picks for the second full Sunday of the regular season! Sorry for these being so late this week. My production schedule was jam packed for the last few days with three separate videos coming out so it was tough to carve out an hour to write this up. I'll have yet another pick breakdown video coming out later tonight/early tomorrow morning on that Jets/Browns game as well, so keep an eye out for that!
COLTS (+3.5) @ TITANS
I really like what the Titans are doing on defense. Vrabel and Peas have that unit playing like more than the sum of its parts right now, and I think you could legitimately argue Tennessee as the most dangerously deceptive "pressure" team in the league, right up there with Baltimore. The sheer amount of times they'll change coverages and blitz looks on you before and after the snap is mind boggling for young quarterbacks to deal with, like we saw late in the game last week with Baker Mayfield, and I think we'll see more of that this week with Jacoby Brissett.
That being said though, Brissett is MASSIVELY improved from where he was earlier in his career when the Jags teed off on him for 10 sacks...most of which were his own fault. He slides around the pocket with ease to navigate pressure, his eyes are always staying down the field looking for receivers, and he's diagnosing post-snap coverage rolls much quicker than he ever has before. Frank Reich has been a revelation for this dude's development.
I still think that the Titans will win, but I don't think that it will be by more than a field goal. I think Brissett keeps this game close from wire to wire, and possibly even takes the Colts into yet another overtime game. The Colts aren't out of the division race just yet, even without Andrew Luck.
Chargers @ Lions (+2)
The Lions letting last week's double digit win slip away from them in the fourth quarter was mind bogglingly bad (mostly because of a terrible timeout by Darrell Bevell), but it doesn't necessarily mean that the Lions as a team are bad. They kicked Arizona's ass on the line of scrimmage for the first three quarters of that game before the collapse, Kerryon Johnson had a few really nice runs, and both Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones made a few clutch catches deep down the field.
I think if Detroit just follows the same recipe that they did last week - dominate in the trenches, heavily feature the run game, and take deep shots off of play action - but leave the shitty game management decisions behind this time, they'll be alright. The Chargers are ALREADY banged up ( as is tradition) with multiple key starters missing this game for one reason or another, so if there was ever any time for a big bounce back performance, this is probably it.
BILLS (-2.5) @ GIANTS
This Bills defense is FEISTY. They may not have many big, nationally known names yet, but this unit is extremely tough, extremely well coached, and all eleven guys fly to the football on every single play. I think this is going to be a relatively low scoring game (as long as Barkley doesn't completely take it over, which obviously is always possible), and in these low-scoring, beat-em-up kind of games, I think Buffalo excels. As a team, they relish every opportunity they can get to drag you down into the mud and make you fight for survival - they LOVE those type of games.
Run the ball heavily with Devin Singletary, take a few shots to John Brown down the field off of play action, and play tough defense. That's the formula, and they're sticking to it.
Bills win 17-14.
CARDINALS @ RAVENS(-13)
Lamar can throw - we're all doomed.
Seriously, though...WOW. I think six or seven of the most beautiful passes I've ever seen Jackson throw, either as a college or as a pro, were all in last week's season opener against Miami. His mechanics are better, his touch is massively improved, and for once it feels like we're seeing him turn into a franchise quarterback right before our very eyes. If Jackson stays on this trajectory, with that offensive line, weaponry, and defense surrounding him, the Ravens will be Super Bowl contenders. You can write that down.
I like Kyler Murray a lot as far as being the future of this team, but the Cardinals are walking head first into a buzz saw in Baltimore. The talent gap between both teams here is...let's just say "substantial". If Murray can put the team on his back and even make this a close game, I would consider that to be a monumentally impressive performance for a rookie.
PATRIOTS @ DOLPHINS (+19)
Yikes. Just...yikes. I'm taking the Dolphins to cover +19 because ANY team in the NFL losing by three touchdowns or more two weeks in a row just sounds like an impossibly terrible ball club; but at the same time the Dolphins might actually BE just that terrible. It wouldn't shock me if they somehow STILL couldn't cover such an outrageous line.
As bad as the Browns and Cardinals have been as the "worst" teams in the NFL the last two seasons, Miami is worse. I haven't seen a team this devoid of talent, and this devoid of a desire to compete...maybe ever.
49ERS (PK) @ BENGALS
It was sloppy overall, but the 49ers still showed flashes of being that playoff caliber team we all thought they could be on paper when they took down the Bucs last week. Were it not for multiple touchdowns being called back early, that might have been a much more lopsided game by halftime, but alas, it was just not meant to be. Instead, we were "rewarded" with an ugly, knock down, drag out, confusion-filled mess that still ended with the same exact result...just with a lot more stress involved.
I think this game goes a lot cleaner for Kyle Shanahan and company. I predict Jimmy G, George Kittle, and [insert running back here] methodically work their way up and down the field and building a nice cushion by the time the third quarter rolls around, and from there they just grind away with the run game. It wouldn't shock me to see the defense also give up a late touchdown to make it a one score game, but ultimately it won't matter and the Niners will get out of Cincy with their second consecutive road win.
Oh, and I also think Bosa gets two more sacks today and abuses every single Bengals offensive lineman that dares to try and block him.
DAL (-6.5) @ WAS
Dak Prescott's rapid improvement under Kellen Moore is going to be one of the biggest storylines of this entire season. The new Cowboys offense looks refreshingly modern, and for once Prescott is being helped out by proper play design, play call sequencing, and other little things that can help young quarterbacks out like motions and split tight ends to help diagnose coverages easier.
We already knew that Dallas was loaded as a roster from top to bottom, but now they might also be getting consistently great quarterback play for the first time since the days of Tony Romo. That's a very, very scary thought for the rest of the NFC East.
JAGUARS @ TEXANS (-8.5)
Is this offense fun to watch or what? Deshaun Watson is incredible, DeAndre Hopkins is amazing, Will Fuller is still a legitimate deep threat, Kenny Stills can roast single coverage if you miss even a single step in the release, and now even Keke Coutee is coming back as well. The Texans offensive line still has plenty of questions to answer (thankfully none of them are at left tackle), but Watson and his receivers are so damn good that I think this offense will be highly productive regardless.
Throw in the fact that Jacksonville is already down multiple starters on defense (and remember that Telvin Smith is also sitting this season out as well), and I think we have a recipe for Houston to blow the doors off of their division rival in their home opener.
Gardner Minshew looks really nice, by the way. I just don't think he's got enough firepower around him on the roster at the moment to keep up with Deshaun and company.
SEA @ PIT (-3.5)
The Seahawks have issues. For the first time in a long time, we're seeing what this Carroll cover three looks like when they don't have a truly elite free safety running the show..and it ain't pretty when offenses go deep. They managed to barely squeak out a win against Cincinnati last week, but every single opponent of Seattle's for the rest of the season just saw the biggest crack in their armor exposed by John Ross.
I think Pittsburgh comes out firing in this game trying to prove a point, and they go right at rookie free safety Marquise Blair, who is now starting ahead of Tedric Thompson after his horrifically bad week one performance. Expect a lot of seam routes, slice routes, Dino calls, Mills calls, all of it. Any deep passing concept you can think of that used to not work against Seattle because of Earl Thomas, now it does.
We've probably got a shootout on our hands, folks. Fire up every receiver from this game that you own in fantasy, and enjoy the light show.
VIKINGS @ PACKERS (-2.5)
Full game breakdown here: https://youtu.be/wec1ZPTgiDY
CHIEFS (-7.5) @ RAIDERS
As long as Pat Mahomes is alive and breathing, I will bet the Chiefs to beat the spread every single week until I am given a definitive reason not to. I don't care that he tweaked his ankle, I don't care that Tyreek Hill is out, I don't care that Eric Fisher has a groin injury. This quarterback, and this head coach in Andy Reid, are so damn ridiculously good that I will STILL bet on them to beat the spread at every opportunity.
For a long time I thought that Aaron Rodgers would be most blatantly unfair football player that I would ever witness...and then Pat Mahomes came into the league. He tips the scales so far in Kansas City's favor all by himself every single week that I truly think that if he were in Miami instead, he and Andy Reid could turn the current Dolphins roster into an 8 win team this year. THE DOLPHINS.
Pat Mahomes is not human, and I refuse to hold him to human standards of reasonable expectations.
SAINTS (+2) @ RAMS
I don't think it's fair to call the Saints defense the "same old New Orleans trash heap", like some fans are already doing. They had to go against one of the most explosive offenses in the entire league in week one that had an entire offseason to prepare for them, and they still managed to hold them to 21 points until the final minute of the game. Honestly, that ain't bad.
I think the Saints formula for success travels very well in this league - play defense, run the hell out of the ball with Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray, and lean on Michael Thomas to beat up on whatever unfortunate corner happens to be lining up against him that day. Sprinkle in a few bombs to Ted Ginn and some red zone work for Jared Cook, and boom, you've got 30 points.
There are some defenses out there that I think match up really well against what the Saints do (Dallas comes to mind), but I don't think the Rams are going to have nearly as much success as the Cowboys had last year. Hell, they might not even have as much success as they had THEMSELVES last year when they held the Saints to 23 points in the NFC Championship game. This is a more diverse Saints offense than what we saw in 2018, a more explosive offense, and one that I think is going to pull out every last trick in the play book to "prove a point".
We're in for a wild one here, and I think New Orleans pulls out a big statement win.
BEARS @ DEN (+2)
Everything that could have possibly gone wrong for Denver in week one, went wrong. Missed field goal opportunities, another sack fumble in field goal range, a dropped touchdown on a stick-nod concept that would have made it a one score game...it was a mess. For one reason or another, the football Gods wanted the Raiders to win that game on Monday night, and they made it happen.
I don't think Denver repeats those same mistakes again. A lot of what went wrong for the Broncos was stupid, correctable mistakes or just tiny little errors that got blown out of proportion. But for the Bears...what went wrong for THEM is a much more concerning story.
Mitch Trubisky is still making inexcusable mistakes as a third year pro - the same kind of stuff that even rookies have a hard time getting away with - and unlike a blocked field goal or a dropped touchdown in crunch time, that problem isn't so easily correctable. And now he's got to go on the road, to one of the most notoriously inhospitable stadiums in the league, and put on a show against a defensive staff that already knows him inside and out.
Yeah...I'm not super stoked about that. It's certainly possible that Mitch proves me wrong, balls out, and gets these Bears back on track to be Super Bowl contenders...but now in year three, I'm kind of in "I'll believe it when I see it" mode with him. Give me the Broncos to win by 3.
EAGLES (-2) @ FALCONS
Full game breakdown here: https://youtu.be/rvadmCtQ8i0
BROWNS (-7) @ JETS
Full game breakdown coming tonight on the channel. Will update this post when it drops!
Comments
Brett Kollmann
I would prefer Herndon, if he's still available in your league
Brett Kollmann
That entirely depends on Teddy. He had a rough game last week, was a hair slow on his reads, wasn't in sync with Thomas at all. The Seattle game will tell us a lot about how the rest of this season is going to go for him
Hey Brett, is Demetrius Harris worth picking up with the news about Njoku? My TE right now is Eiffert (Hunter Henry owner) Thks a lot!
Hey Brett, what do you think of Michael Thomas after Brees’ injury? Do you think his production will stay where it is or are you expecting a significant decline?
