Brett Kollmann
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NFL Picks against the spread: Week 8
🕑 Added 2019-10-27 16:03:51 +0000 UTCThe lines are downright wacky this week because of some major injuries around the league. Here's what I've got for week eight!
GIANTS (+6.5) @ LIONS
The Giants may be without Sterling Shepard in this game (concussion), but luckily for them they should have Saquon Barkley back against one of the worst statistical defenses in the league over the past month…AND that bottom ranked defense will be without one of their best players in Darius Slay. Detroit does not have a single linebacker that I trust to lineup against Barkley in space – injured or not – so I would expect the Giants to get him involved as a receiver early and often.
I would also expect Golden Tate to get a ton of targets in this game, but keep in mind that Justin Coleman (Detroit’s slot corner) has been having an excellent year so far, so he may not be as productive as you would expect. Honestly, in terms of Giants wide receivers the one to *really* play in fantasy this week is Darius Slayton, considering the absence of Slay and the fact that Coleman will be kicking inside to cover Tate in 11 personnel looks anyway. All it takes is one bomb from Daniel Jones to Slayton with no safety help and this game will be busted wide open.
I’m not sure if the Giants will actually win, but I am confident that they will at least keep it closer than 6.5.
BUCCANEERS @ TITANS (-2)
This is a tough game to call. On one hand, I don’t think the Titans secondary has any corners who can handle the Bucs’ receivers, but on the other hand the Bucs offensive line probably can’t handle the Titans defense front at all either. Both teams are relatively banged up, but with the entire right side of the Tampa offensive line not playing in this game (or just playing hurt), it’s hard for me to believe that Jameis Winston will have good protection in this game…and we’ve all seen what happens when Winston isn’t given a clean pocket to work in.
I am not super jazzed about the Titans’ offensive matchup against Tampa either, but I at least think that I can trust Tannehill to not turn the ball over and give his opponent a lot of free points with easy field position. I can’t say the same for Winston. If I had to guess a score, I think this ends up at 24-20 for Tennessee, with two Winston turnovers being the difference.
CHARGERS @ BEARS (-3.5)
Me betting on the Bears to cover at this point is basically just showing that despite my lack of affection for Mitch Trubisky, I still love Chicago’s defense. With Keenan Allen likely not playing, the Chargers will have to rely on Austin Ekeler and Hunter Henry to be their main workhorses in moving the chains on third downs, and honestly I’m just not sure that will be enough. Roquan Smith, for all of his problems against the run last week, is still an excellent coverage linebacker who can match up with either of them easily, and either of the Bears great safety duo could handle that task as well. Literally the only one on one matchup that I liked for the Chargers coming into this game was Allen vs Fuller, and now that’s out the window.
I expect Philip Rivers to be under siege early and often with his porous offensive line – without his favorite target to throw to – and as long as the offense doesn’t *completely* shit the bed like they did last week against a much better defense, Chicago should be able to win this game by 4 or 5 points.
Is that score prediction maybe a little too optimistic for Mitch Trubisky? Perhaps…but I’m also 50% sure that Chase Daniel will be taking over in the second half anyway if the offense struggles early, so Trubisky may not really end up being a factor here.
SEAHAWKS @ FALCONS (+9)
I definitely like the Seahawks to win this game, and especially so against Matt Schaub instead of Matt Ryan, but I’m just not totally sold that they will win by 10 or more points. Lockett and Metcalf should both have nice games today on those play action deep bombs that Seattle loves so much, but overall I think the Hawks’ game plan will be to just pound the rock, and then pound it some more. They want to shorten this game as much as possible in order to prevent Atlanta’s skill position talent from taking the game over, and honestly it would not surprise me to see this game end in three hours or less.
Between Wilson, Carson, and Penny, I think Seattle will be pushing 40 carries and nearly 200 total yards rushing today, with the score ending up somewhere around 24-17.
JETS @ JAGUARS (-6.5)
I am not betting the Jaguars to cover because of Sam Darnold’s collapse on Monday night – I am betting the Jaguars to cover because of the Jets collapse AS A TEAM on Monday night. This ball club is absolutely horrible at communication, they consistently lack the ability to adjust on the sidelines, and some of the few bright spots they actually have as an organization are all injured and won’t be playing today anyway (Herndon, Mosley).
Meanwhile the Jags are actually starting to pull themselves together, their run game is finally clicking, and perhaps with Jalen Ramsey no longer in that locker room there will be one less loud voice to distract everyone from the mission – winning games. I thought the Jags were going to win this game anyway, but after seeing all of the Jets’ injuries, their locker room problems, and their total lack of cohesiveness on the field, I can’t help but think the Jags will win by a lot more than 6.5.
EAGLES @ BILLS (-2)
The Eagles are STILL absolutely wrecked by injuries with DeSean Jackson, Jason Peters, Nigel Bradham, Avonte Maddox, and Timmy Jernigan all ruled out, while the Bills are virtually healthy from top to bottom with not a single player ruled out. If all of Philly’s week one starters were on the field, sure I would probably expect them to win the game, but the Bills are a damn good team and barely have any scratches on them halfway through the season – that’s *rare*.
Buffalo’s defense is rockin’ and rollin’ as usual, their red zone offense is one of the most efficient in the league (when they do actually get in the red zone), and with Devin Singletary back on the field I expect their run game to get even better as well. This was a tough matchup for the Eagles to begin with, but now that they are down such a significant portion of their starters…it might take a miracle performance by Carson Wentz to pull this off.
BENGALS @ RAMS (-12.5)
The Bengals are lucky that the Dolphins exist, because if they didn’t, this Cincy team might be known as one of the worst we’ve seen in a decade. Honestly, I don’t know how Bengals fans are still sober at this point.
The bright side – there’s still a distinct possibility that they can get the first overall pick in the draft. If they hit on the right quarterback in 2020, the franchise might finally have a chance to turn around.
CARDINALS (+12.5) @ SAINTS
The Saints are obviously a superior team to Arizona, but so superior that they will win by 13+ points? That, I’m not so sure of. Kyler Murray has played extremely well over the last month and he’s on pace to have one of the greatest seasons for a rookie quarterback *ever*, The defense already looks much improved with the return of Patrick Peterson, and even the run game showed that they still had some juice last week, with or without David Johnson.
Do I expect Arizona to win this game? Absolutely not. But I do expect them to move the ball efficiently with the return of Christian Kirk, put up some points, and keep the game very competitive until the end when New Orleans finally pulls away. I think the Saints win by six or seven…but definitely not nearly two touchdowns.
BRONCOS @ COLTS (-5.5)
The Colts are a damn good team. Some people may have doubted Jacoby Brissett leading into the 2019 season, but I was not one of them. Obviously he’s not Andrew Luck, but the Brissett that we see today is *so far ahead* of the Brissett that we saw just two years ago, that I don’t doubt that he will be the guy in Indy for a long time. He just keeps getting better and better, and while he keeps improving, so does the team around him. Honestly right now I would say that the Colts are one of the three or four most dangerous rosters in the AFC, right up there with New England, Kansas City, Baltimore, and obviously Houston, who they just beat.
They’ve got an excellent offensive line, a good young quarterback, a few dynamic weapons, and a very salty defense that plays above their talent level. Throw in a great coaching staff and front office, and what’s not to love? I think that 5.5 line is very generous, because I truly expect this game to be won by more than that. I’ll take that spread all day.
PANTHERS (+5) @ 49ERS
A five point spread is a *little* rich for my blood. I love the 49ers this year, and I fully expect them to win, but this Panthers squad is scrappy as hell and could make a game of this very easily. Remember, San Francisco is pretty banged up right now on offense, particularly when it comes to the guys doing the heavy lifting up front, and they are going against a terrifying, swarming Panthers front seven that will give them fits all day long (Carolina’s pass rush is one of the best in the league, in my opinion).
I don’t expect the Panthers to be very efficient on offense, but because of those injuries, I don’t expect the Niners to be very efficient either. This whole game just looks like a beat-em-up, knock-down, drag out fight to me on paper…one that could end up in the ballpark of 20-17 when it’s all said and done. If you have the chance to play either of these defense in fantasy today, I would do it. They won’t shut each other out, but we’re in for lots of sacks and lots of turnovers by both units.
Niners win by three on the back of a spectacular performance by George Kittle – 9 catches, over 100 yards, and two touchdowns. He’s basically the only matchup threat on the field that the Panthers don’t have the personnel to handle one on one, and I expect Kyle Shanahan to exploit that to get a win.
RAIDERS @ TEXANS (-6.5)
It’s almost become tradition at this point that following an “off game” for the Texans offense, they explode the next week and put up a ton of points – that’s exactly what I expect to happen this week, especially against a leaky Raiders defense that has lot of problems with communication on the back end. Will Fuller may be out, but his propensity for getting injured is exactly why Houston traded for Kenny Stills in the first place, so they should still be just fine at receiver. Deshaun Watson almost always plays well following a loss, so I have zero concerns about Houston’s ability to score today.
On defense, Houston also got some reinforcements in the form of former Raiders corner Gareon Conley, who was a terrible scheme fit in Oakland and just didn’t match what they like to do. Under Romeo Crennel, I expect them to leave him in more press man coverage – his real comfort zone – where he can just take one guy and erase them. Houston desperately needed help at corner, especially with a corner that can survive in man coverage, so this is a good fit for both parties. The Texans defense still isn’t particularly *great*, but with this trade they might at least start edging towards “good” again, and that’s enough for me.
BROWNS (+12) @ PATRIOTS
I’m not so sure that we will see Bill Belichick throw that now-famous zero blitz at Baker Mayfield this week. He still remembers what Odell Beckham Jr did to his defense a few years back – including a monstrous 87-yard TD – and I don’t think he wants to take a chance on him repeating that performance by taking away safety help from his corners all game. All it takes to bust this thing wide open is a hot slant against pressure, and one missed tackle…and then it’s over. If Bill can avoid that even being a possibility, he will.
Instead, I expect a bit softer coverages throughout the game – more two deep looks and more conservatism – with the end goal being to try to force Mayfield to mount long, 10+ play drives to get scores. They will want to make the Browns earn every single yard rather than taking their chances on Cleveland getting it all in one bite, and honestly odds are that *eventually* on those long drives someone will make a mistake that the Patriots can capitalize on. It’s a very “bend but don’t break” mentality, but Belichick has pioneered that philosophy for decades now, so it suits him.
On the other side of the ball I expect the exact opposite. Lots of blitzes by the Browns, lots of pressure to try to collapse the pocket and get to Brady, and lots of corners being left all alone out on islands. The Pats are going to have a lot of chances to hit big plays with those one on one opportunities, and I think at some point they definitely will hit one to Phillip Dorsett deep down the field. This just smells like one of Dorsett’s classic “two catch, 80-yards, and a TD” games, where both of his catches end up being the difference.
Pats win by nine or ten, but the Browns cover the spread…barely.
PACKERS (-5.5) @ CHIEFS
No Frank Clark, no Chris Jones, no Kendall Fuller, no Eric Fisher and no Pat Mahomes. YIKES.
The fact that this game is still only -5.5 for Green Bay is a testament to how good Andy Reid and the Chiefs are, because if any other ball club was down their quarterback, left tackle, best corner, and two best pass rushers all in the same game…against AARON RODGERS of all people…the spread would be much higher.
Honestly, there’s not a whole lot to analyze about this game. The Packers are going to come into Arrowhead to establish the run, eat clock for 40 minutes just like the Colts and Texans, throw a few bombs off play action, get a win, and go home. That is the formula to beat Kansas City even WITH Mahomes’ ability to score quickly, and that formula was made infinitely easier by all of the Chiefs’ injuries. If have Aaron Jones in fantasy tonight, congratulations on your win this week – he’s getting fed.
DOLPHINS (+14) @ STEELERS
The fact that it is technically my job to watch this game tomorrow night makes me want to switch careers.
Maybe I’ll go be a vet or something. How about a garbage man? Yeah…garbage man sounds good. At least that way when I’m forced to stare at trash all day I’ll be building towards a good pension.
Comments
Brett Kollmann
Definitely not. Johnson hasn't been able to stay healthy for like 2-3 years now. Your best ability is availability, and DJ just hasn't been consistently available unfortunately. Right now he's not worth that price tag.
Brett Kollmann
Man I can't believe how brutal that Browns game was. Turnovers on three straight SNAPS. Insane.
I have a fantasy question... would you trade away Tevin Coleman and Hunter Henry for David Johnson? I have Mark Andrews with McCaffery and Josh Jacobs..DJs injury concerns me but I’m not sure if he’s that much better than Coleman at my flex and just leave one of Andrews/Henry on my bench
Reagansmash
I disagree with ur assessment of the pats/browns game, mostly because it is going to be a cold/ rainy/windy day at foxboro today. I doubt either side will make many downfield throws, feels alot more like an old school running attack type of game to me. I do agree with taking the points and betting on CLE.
