Brett Kollmann
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Week 7 NFL Picks
🕑 Added 2018-10-21 06:30:10 +0000 UTC2018 PICKS RECORD SO FAR: 47-32
First things first, yes, I am still working my way through the Q&A from this week. There's A LOT of questions to get through, so it's taking a while haha. I'll probably end up doing that for most of the day today while I watch games.
Second things second...man…last week was BRUTAL. Let’s hope I can put the disaster that was last week’s picks behind me and come out strong again in week seven. Lord knows my win-loss record needs it.
TITANS @ CHARGERS
My pick for this game largely depends on the assumption that Melvin Gordon will play, even though he has been downgraded to questionable recently. I do like Austin Ekeler as a stand in if Gordon can’t go, but Gordon is one of the, if not THE most reliable redzone back in the league. If Philip Rivers gets this offense inside the 20s, Gordon can finish the job. Against a really underrated Titans defense, that kind of closer is going to be a huge asset.
As for the other side of the ball, I have to see any evidence that the Tennessee offense is ready to get over the hump. Their quarterback isn’t playing well, their line isn’t playing well, and their coaching staff basically refuses to commit to the run despite being a team that is BUILT to run the ball 25 or more times a week. If they can suddenly fix all of their issues in one week, sure that have a shot to win…but I’ll believe that change when I finally see it, and not a minute sooner.
PANTHERS @ EAGLES
I really, really like this matchup. It would be an early playoff preview actually, with a potential wildcard Panthers team going on the road to face the potential fourth seed Eagles. I personally don’t expect to see the Panthers ground game do THAT much against a really good Philly run defense, but if Carolina spreads the Eagles out and forces them into their typical single high man coverage that they have resorted to so much in the past, we could see some really explosive plays in the passing game.
Come to think of it, with Ajayi now on IR and the Panthers run defense being pretty damn good in their own right, I think this game will come down to who plays better at quarterback in long yardage situations on third down. Considering that…give me Carson Wentz every time to win a really tight, and likely low-ish scoring game. Eagles 20 – Panthers 17.
VIKINGS @ JETS
Both teams are coming into this game pretty banged up, but the Jets injuries to their secondary in particular are going to make this a really tough one to win when they have Cousins, Thielen, and Diggs all coming to town. Not only that, but the Jets have also sustained a couple key injuries to their receiving corps as well, and that’s really going to hurt them against a Vikings secondary that is hard enough to beat as it is. Sam Darnold has certainly punched far above his weight so far this season, but the injury report and personnel matchups are just not on his side this week. Give me the Vikings to get a road victory today.
BILLS @ COLTS
If Derek Anderson somehow wins this game for Buffalo after being on the team for barely over a week, I literally don’t know what I’ll do. And perhaps more importantly, if Indy somehow LOSES this game to Derek Anderson, I don’t know what their fans will do. This is about as must win as it possibly gets for the Colts. They have an overwhelming advantage on offense, but the Bills defense is no slouch either. As long as Luck is able to play turnover free football, however, they should still win this game handily.
PATRIOTS @ BEARS
Rob Gronkowski is not expected to play, which is huge for the Bears’ chances here, but Chicago is dealing a bunch of major ailments themselves. Khalil Mack is hobbled by an ankle injury, Allen Robinson is dealing with a groin injury, and Bryce Callahan (the Bears’ great nickel defender) might not play either to take on Julian Edelman. If this was a fully healthy Bears team I might give them a big edge here because they do have a lot of favorable matchups, but now? Now this thing might be damn near dead even.
In times of uncertainty like this, I always like to remind myself of one thing that usually makes this kind of pick easier – one team has Tom Brady, and the other doesn’t. In a dead heat on paper, always side with the greatest QB of all time. ALWAYS.
BROWNS @ BUCCANEERS
The Browns have repeatedly been a victim of circumstance this season, and to be honest they are a way, WAY better team than their record indicates. The Bucs may have made some coaching changes this week to try to fix their incredibly leaky defense, but I don’t think that Tampa’s problems are entirely coordinator-related. Will they improve now that Mike Smith is no longer calling the shots? Sure, maybe, but will they improve enough this week to stop a Cleveland offense that has a lot of young, exciting talent on the offensive side of the ball that can explode in any given week? Eh…probably not.
This game has “ugly semi-shootout” written all over it, which I guess can be a good thing if you like those sorts of matchups. Browns 30 – Bucs 24.
TEXANS @ JAGUARS
The Texans can’t move anyone off the line of scrimmage in the run game, they can’t pass protect, and their quarterback is playing with a broken rib and a partially collapsed lung….and now they have to go to Jacksonville and play a pissed off Jaguars defensive line.
You do the math. Give me Jacksonville to rebound this week from their horrible loss in Dallas, even WITH Blake Bortles doing his best to give games away every Sunday.
LIONS @ DOLPHINS
In a battle of sneaky teams that are both annoyingly hard to beat, I think this game comes down to two things. Number one – Brock Osweiler is starting again. He may have beaten Chicago last week (well…let’s be honest – Albert Wilson beat Chicago last week), but I’ve seen Brock play enough to know that eventually that rug will be pulled out from under him. He’s always just one pass away from disaster.
Number two, I think this is the week that the Lions really lean on Kerryon Johnson against a weak Dolphins run defense. Johnson is far and away the best back on the Lions, and it’s about damn time that they stop letting Blount vulture his carries and they give him a full work load. He’s earned it, and there isn’t a more perfect matchup for him to have his coming out party than this week in Miami.
So in the end, mark me down for a 150 total yards from Johnson, at least one critical turnover from Osweiler in the red zone, and a Lions win by more than a touchdown.
SAINTS @ RAVENS
This is probably the best game of the week. I spent a long time explaining my thoughts on this game in The Film Room a few days ago, so go check that out on the channel to get the long version of what I’m about to say.
The Ravens feast on young quarterbacks with excellent blitz designs, confusing coverage rolls, and a great interior pass rush that compresses the pocket and forces young QBs to take their eyes off the field and stare at the pocket collapsing around them. It’s a great system and it’s extremely effective…but it’s not really designed to beat a quarterback like Brees who has a ton of experience beating blitzes and doesn’t really care of the pocket is tight around him. The Saints are basically the worst possible matchup for the Ravens coming off New Orleans’ bye week, so even though Baltimore is actually favored in this game I’m still going with the Saints.
It’s going to be a close one for sure…but I have more faith in Drew than I do in the Ravens defense.
COWBOYS @ REDSKINS
Yes, the Boys just put up 40 on Jacksonville. Yes, their defense has been amazing. Yes, they may have finally figured out how to help out Dak Prescott with their play calling.
But dammit, Dallas and the NFC East as a whole are just so damn inconsistent that I can’t in good conscience take the “easy” pick here. I like the Skins defense a lot, I think Alex Smith is far and away a better quarterback than Prescott if this thing somehow turns into a shootout (and that’s saying A LOT), and the Cowboys seemingly turn into an entirely different team on the road. I so want to believe that they have finally turned the corner and become a more well-rounded team on offense, but I just need to see a bit more.
If they can stomp Washington like they stomped Jacksonville, sure you can sign me up for the hype train. Until then though, give me the Redskins in this one.
RAMS @ 49ERS
God I wish the 49ers were fully healthy for just this one week. It probably would have been one of the best games of the year, to be honest, just because of all of the interesting personnel and coaching matchups on the field. But alas, we’re just not allowed to get to see that kind of battle between these two teams until next year – such a shame, really.
The Rams are rolling right now. And even though they do have some very, very exploitable matchups on defense that the 49ers will likely capitalize on (cough cough fantasy bonanza cough cough), I just don’t quite think that San Francisco has ENOUGH to keep up with Goff, Gurley, and the rest of the gang. It will still probably be an entertaining game, but it might not be the Game of the Year contender that I expected it to be back in August.
BENGALS @ CHIEFS
The Bengals actually have a really damn good team and a lot of exciting talent in basically every position group, but man I just don’t think anybody other than New England, the Rams, or New Orleans can keep up with this Chiefs offense right now – especially in Arrowhead. Don’t get me wrong, the Cincy offense is going to go OFF against this horrible, horrible KC defense, but at the end of the day I just refuse to bet against Pat Mahomes. He is unspeakably good…almost to the point where I’m getting 2011 Patriots vibes – all offense, no defense, and yet still an easy Super Bowl contender.
Chiefs 38 – Bengals 33 with Mahomes throwing the winning touchdown inside the final two minutes.
GIANTS @ FALCONS
The Giants are a mess in…well…a lot of different ways. However, the Falcons certainly are not without some problems of their own – particularly on defense where all of their injuries have turned them into a bottom five unit. Even with Atlanta having such a terrible defense though, I just can’t bring myself to bet on Eli Manning right now.
I realize that the Giants will still likely put up some much-needed points to try to get their offense back on track, but will Eli’s constant checking down to Saquon Barkley (who will then do all the hard work) be enough to outscore Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Mo Sanu? No…probably not.
This is going to be another one of those “ugly shootouts” that I mentioned before, where it’s less about two great offenses going toe to toe and more about two teams going at it that can’t stop a damn nose bleed. Falcons 33 – Giants 24.
