Brett Kollmann
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Week 14 NFL Game Picks
🕑 Added 2018-12-09 04:29:34 +0000 UTC Picks Record So Far: 117-65PANTHERS @ BROWNS
The Panthers have been essentially in free fall for the past month after a very strong start to the season, but despite the ballooning of the loss column I still believe that they are a legitimate wildcard contender. Sure, you’re going to get games from Cam every once in a while like last week where he threw four picks and cost his team a crucial division game, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the offense is hopeless or that Newton himself is regressing. Sometimes rough patches just last longer than we expect, and that’s what I believe the last month has been…just one big-ass rough patch.
When you look at the Browns, they too hit a bit of a rough patch last week in a brutal (and not at all close) loss to Houston on the road, and now they are trying to avoid losing two straight without Denzel Ward, Austin Corbett, and possibly Larry Ogunjobi on the field - those are three really, really tough injuries to swallow right now. Throw in the fact that I don’t believe that Cleveland has anyone who can stop Christian McCaffrey or D.J. Moore in space (with Ward out), and I also don’t believe that Baker is ready to outduel a quarterback like Newton quite yet when he falls behind, and you have yourself a recipe for a Panthers win….finally.
RAVENS @ CHIEFS
After seeing Lamar Jackson live for the first time last weekend in Atlanta, I can tell you one thing for sure…this dude is FAST. As a runner, there might not be a more dangerous quarterback in the league right now. I’m talking legit 4.3 or 4.4 speed, and the Ravens are certainly not afraid to use it. However…all that being said Jackson still has a long, long way to go as a passer. His accuracy is still extremely inconsistent, he’s not processing coverages after the snap as quickly as some other rookie QBs (Mayfield/Darnold), and the offense itself still seems a little bit simplified at the moment.
Baltimore’s game plan of stop the run, rush the passer, and run 40+ times a game on offense might work great against bad teams that struggle in the trenches, but this is the Chiefs we’re talking about here. If you want to beat KC in Arrowhead, you’ve GOT to be able to throw the ball and keep up score for score, and right now I just don’t think the Ravens can do that. If their defense plays out of their mind and keeps the Baltimore running game relevant, then sure maybe they have a chance, but right now I don’t like this matchup or game script for them one bit.
COLTS @ TEXANS
The Texans are on a roll right now. Deshaun Watson is playing more efficient than ever (even if his surface level production seems “down” this year), the defense is rocking and rolling every single week, and even the special teams unit is playing weirdly great for the first time in…maybe ever? Houston is not the best in the league at any one particular thing, but they are pretty good at everything, which makes them an extremely dangerous ball club. Want to get in a shootout? They can do that. Defensive slugfest? Sure, why not. Whatever kind of game plan you want to throw at them, they can handle it, and that flexibility will ultimately carry them to another division title this year.
However, when it comes to the Colts, their ace up the sleeve this season was/is their offensive line – that front five was the great equalizer every single week and it certainly made them a threat to Houston no matter what their records were any given week. But after Ryan Kelly’s injury a few weeks ago the line has taken a significant step back, and that’s the last thing that Andrew Luck needs right now with J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney, and Whitney Mercilus breathing down his neck every snap. I don’t want to say that the Colts are totally screwed, because as long as they have Luck and Frank Reich all things are possible, but without a fully healthy offensive line and a fully functioning run game, this is going to be a very, VERY uphill battle for Indy to win on the road.
PATRIOTS @ DOLPHINS
Yeah yeah yeah, I get it, the Patriots struggle to win in Miami. I’ve heard it a million times this week and I’ll probably hear it a million times more as I watch the game, but just because the Pats have struggled here historically doesn’t mean that they will automatically struggle again this weekend. Remember that New England blew the doors off the Dolphins not too long ago when they met in Foxborough (and it wasn’t even cold yet), so it’s not like we haven’t seen Brady and Belichick already stick it to them this season.
What really matters to me isn’t the stadium that the game is played in, it’s the matchups on the field, and right now I don’t think that the matchups favor the Dolphins. Can they stop the Patriots efficient run game? No, probably not. Can they match up size for size with Rob Gronkowski? Also no, probably not. And can any of their corners match up with Josh Gordon outside after Xavien Howard was ruled out? You guessed it…no, probably not. Miami has some other nice pieces in the secondary with Jones and Fitzpatrick, but the pass rush has been terrible, the interior run defense has been even worse, and the linebackers make huge mental mistakes in coverage on a weekly basis. This was already a really hard defensive matchup for them anyway even WITH Howard, but without him? Yeah…I don’t see this going well for Miami at all.
GIANTS @ REDSKINS
Man, talk about a tale of two halves for this season. The Giants started out as a bottom three team in the league, and now they are a bit of a win streak and are starting to put things together on offense, while the Skins started the year off strong and are now spiraling into oblivion. Mark Sanchez is this team’s starting quarterback now and he’s only been on the team for…what, three weeks?
This has just been so, so sad to watch over the last month. In no time at all, the Redskins went from one of the feel-good underdog stories of the NFL, to a banged-up and heavily-criticized franchise that can’t seem to get out of its own way both on and off the field. It’s truly remarkable just how far they have fallen, really.
If the Giants don’t win this game, I think it says more about the state of their franchise than the state of Washington’s.
SAINTS @ BUCCANEERS
The Saints obviously still have a bit of tinkering to do on offense to make sure that teams cannot exploit their overreliance on Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara like the Cowboys did (check out this week’s Film Room episode for more details)…but at the same time I don’t think that Tampa’s defense are going to be the ones to make them pay for doing that again. The Bucs secondary is highly inconsistent with far more downs than ups, they cannot run the ball well enough to chew clock and keep Drew Brees off the field, and in terms of clock and game management, the difference between Dirk Koetter and Sean Payton is night and day.
There is only one thing that you can rely on Tampa to do really well every single week, and that’s chuck the ball downfield and let their playmakers rack up ridiculous yardage totals…but I simply don’t think that will be enough to take down the Saints for the second time in one season. Once? Sure, maybe – anything goes in a shootout when Fitzmagic is on the field…but twice? I just don’t see it.
FALCONS @ PACKERS
This is going to be a classic Sunday afternoon shootout up in Green Bay – except this year both teams have really only been good at shooting themselves in the foot rather than shooting the other team. The Falcons’ injuries ruined their season basically before it even began in September, while the Packers’ implosion on offense split the blame not only among their now-former head coach, but also with their severely underperforming quarterback – or at least underperforming by HIS standards, anyway.
If you had to ask me who I think is going to win this game, I would probably say Green Bay because at least a fresh face leading that team MIGHT reinvigorate a dead offense, and they still do have a functional run game whenever they decide to give the ball to Aaron Jones, but I really don’t feel confident picking this game either way. 2018 is a lost season for both franchises, and I personally feel robbed that this game is turning out to be such a low-stakes dud compared to what I thought it was going to be back in April.
sigh…
JETS @ BILLS
Josh Allen is really fun to watch. He’s not “clean” as a quarterback whatsoever, sure, and when you watch him play you get the sense that he truly IS winging it out there right now, but my GOODNESS is this kid talented. I think when you combine Buffalo’s stout defense with Allen’s propensity for making big plays to move the offense in chunks, this is honestly kind of a sneaky team; and even if they don’t win many games from here on out, I don’t think that they will just roll over and die every week either.
Look out for the Bills in a couple of years, because they might have something here. Allen still has a long way to go before I consider him a finished product, but there’s definitely a spark there that I didn’t expect to see. Let’s see if this Bills coaching staff can turn that spark into something special in 2019.
BENGALS @ CHARGERS
A line of -15 for the Chargers is a gift from the sports betting Gods…I’ll just leave it at that because I don't want to be mean.
BRONCOS @ 49ERS
I truly don’t feel like the 49ers are as bad as their record or the box scores indicate. They have had some unfortunate injuries this season which kind of derailed things early, and some of their younger players have not contributed as much as I hoped they would, but when I look at this roster I really don’t think that they are a terrible team. Below average, maybe, but terrible? Not to me, they aren’t.
The Broncos will probably win this game (because their rookie class is absolutely bonkers), and a lot of people will still dump on the 49ers as a bottom-feeder franchise that needs yet another rebuild, but I promise you that they are only a few moves away from being a legitimate threat in 2019. If you put a healthy Nick Bosa and a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo on the field for the Niners right now, this is an ENTIRELY different team – I guarantee you that. And I think in about a year, luckily for all of us there is a good chance that we are going to see what that team actually looks like.
Spoiler Alert: Seahawks, Rams, and Cardinals fans probably won’t like it very much.
EAGLES @ COWBOYS
This Cowboys defense is NASTY, and Dak Prescott is playing arguably the most efficient football of his career right now. I can’t say that I ever expected this, but Dallas might legitimately be one of the best teams in the NFC at the moment. As long as they can stick to their formula of controlling the ball, grinding clock with the run game and short passes, and playing amazing defense, this team is a threat to everyone – and that includes the Rams.
On the other side of the line of scrimmage, the Eagles are desperately trying to hang on in the race for the NFC East, but with all of their injuries I just don’t think a comeback in the division is possible. This is just turning into one of “those” seasons for Philly – so much hope and promise crushed on the trainer’s table week after week. If the Eagles were fully healthy and operating at max capacity, I might actually pick them here….but they’re not, so I won’t.
STEELERS @ RAIDERS
Even without James Connor, I highly doubt that the Steelers offense will have much trouble carving through Oakland’s porous defense. The Raiders are in the middle of a major rebuild at virtually every position group except quarterback, and ultimately I expect the result of this game to reflect that.
Pittsburgh is notorious for playing down to vastly inferior opponents in road games though, so there might be some money in betting the spread for Oakland. I’m personally not making that bet myself, but given Mike Tomlin’s history I wouldn’t blame you at all for taking that shot.
LIONS @ CARDINALS
Marvin Jones is on IR, Golden Tate was traded, Kerryon Johnson is still out with a knee injury, and I’m just stuck here wondering who the hell is going to be scoring points for the Lions this week other than Kenny Golladay (who will likely be facing Patrick Peterson all day long). This Detroit offense is a shell of its former self at this point, and even though the Cardinals are not exactly a great team in their own right, at least we know that they still have some playmakers left that can make a difference in the game.
As unbelievable as this would have sounded six or seven weeks ago, I believe more in Josh Rosen, Larry Fitzgerald, and David Johnson right now than I do in Golladay, Matthew Stafford, and Theo Riddick. The NFL is a crazy place.
RAMS @ BEARS
This is the marquee matchup of the week, and as I said in my picks against the spread video on the channel I’m going with the Bears to pull off the upset. Mitchell Trubisky is back of course, which should give a wee bit more stability to the offense, but the true reason I’m picking Chicago is actually their defense.
I feel like this Bears unit is one of the few defenses in the league that can match up pound for pound with all the explosive talent the Rams bring on offense, and when you factor in that Soldier Field in colder months is famous for “slowing down” faster offenses with its sloppy and uneven field quality, I think that might also play in the Bears’ favor here (as it usually does). Chicago has an elite pass rusher, an elite interior run stuffer, a ridiculously rangy linebacking corps, and one of the deepest secondaries in the league. If ANYBODY could stop the Rams in a cold, outdoor home game under the lights, it’s them.
This should be one hell of a game, and I can’t wait to watch it. Hopefully my bet on the Bears to cover pays off!
VIKINGS @ SEAHAWKS
This might be one the first true “playoff” type games we get to see this year because it has massive implications for the NFC wildcard race. A victory in this game won’t guarantee the winner a playoff spot, of course, but it will sure as hell get them A LOT closer to punching their ticket.
Personally, I’ve got the Seahawks winning this game. Russell Wilson is having a phenomenally efficient season, his deep ball connection with Tyler Lockett is as good as ever, and the running game is punishing defenses like it was still 2013. It’s been a long, long time since I’ve had this much confidence in Seattle’s offense, and with this game also being at home, in primetime, in front of one of the most intimidatingly loud fanbases in sports, I really like the Hawks’ chances here.
When it comes to the Vikings, I still obviously love their front four, and their skill position talent on offense is arguably the best foursome in the league (Thielen, Diggs, Cook, Rudolph), but there’s just something missing this year that’s causing them to lose a lot of winnable games. The defense overall is not playing with quite the same tenacity that we’re used to seeing, the offensive line is about as tough as wet tissue paper, and Kirk Cousins goes back and forth between being aggressive to the point of recklessness, and passive to the point of futility. When Minnesota is on, they are ON…but we just haven’t seen them turn it “on” nearly as much as I expected them to this year.
On paper this should be an 11-5 or 12-4 ball club, but instead with four games to go they are fighting for their lives to stay above .500. Something isn’t right there…and I’m not entirely sure what it is yet. Maybe they will turn it around for a miracle run in January starting with a win in Seattle – and they certainly have the talent to do just that – but until I see that turnaround take place for real I’ll just stick with my gut and pick the Hawks.
Comments
Brett Kollmann
His deep ball connection with Wilson is truly extraordinary. It reminds me of Mike Vick and DeSean Jackson...whenever that ball is going deep you just know Lockett is going to catch it for 50+.
Brett Kollmann
I do think the firing was reasonable because first and foremost he could never get the run game going. If you lack OL talent, it's on the OC to find ways to still compensate and generate yards through scheming rather than just out-talenting another team, and he could never do that. You look at the Texans still getting it done on the ground with a terrible OL compared to the Vikings, and it's like their two coaching staffs are on entirely different levels from one another. Houston can still scheme themselves into "easy" yards, whereas the Vikings could not under Flip.
I'm so thankful for all the great content you've put out. Your videos are always so high quality and I would like to thank you for all your hard work. Also If you have no great video ideas this week then I would suggest you break down Tyler Locket. Locket has a perfect passer rating and a completion percentage of 86% when targeted. I would love to see the magic behind the stats. Thanks
Lucas Wollin
Any plans for a q&a soon? I am very curious as to whether that DeFilippo firing was reasonable or not. As an upset vikes fan, who should I blame?
