Brett Kollmann
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2020 NFL Game Picks - Week 1
🕑 Added 2020-09-13 07:16:33 +0000 UTCIt's finally here!
Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season has at long last arrived, which means it's time for my weekly picks to return as well! This year I will give two picks for each game, the straight up winner, as well as who I am picking against the spread for each game. I will also keep track of my record throughout the year so that I can see how I did overall at the end of the regular season.
For what it's worth, on picks against the spread, if I can have a 55% hit rate throughout the year, that would be considered *extremely* efficient by most Vegas sports books, so we'll just aim for that! Let me know if y'all have any questions, particularly any start-sit questions for your fantasy rosters, and I will try to answer as many as I can before kick off!
TEXANS @ CHIEFS (already had this one wrong)
GAME PICK: CHIEFS
SPREAD PICK (from Thursday): TEXANS (+10)
ANALYSIS: Welp…that sucked. I didn’t think Houston would get embarrassed by THAT much...and yet here we are. This is the life that I chose as a Texans fan, I guess.
JETS @ BILLS
GAME PICK: BILLS
SPREAD PICK: BILLS (-6.5)
ANALYSIS: The Jets secondary is already thin as it is, and they STILL won’t be at full strength this week with Maye injured. Their best DB at this point is rookie safety Ashtyn Davis, who will be playing the first actual snaps of his career against Stefon freakin’ Diggs of all people. Add in the fact that Denzel Mims still isn’t healthy, the offensive line has five brand new faces starting, and Adam Gase is still the head coach, and I just don’t see any way that the Jets can even keep this thing close. Buffalo takes it by at least a touchdown.
PACKERS @ VIKINGS
GAME PICK: VIKINGS
SPREAD PICK: VIKINGS (-2.5)
ANALYSIS: The Vikings still have a lot of questions to answer on defense, but I do happen to like a lot of their young talent that are taking over for ousted veterans (Dantzler in particular seems to be a star in the making, if camp reports are true). Mike Zimmer’s D should still at least be effective, even if they aren’t particularly dominant like they used to be. The real star of the show, however, will likely be Minnesota’s offense.
Gary Kubiak is one of the great offensive minds of the last three decades, Kirk Cousins is great when he’s actually **on schedule** and not constantly behind the chains, and the Vikings receiving corps of Thielen, Johnson, and Jefferson is still more than enough to get the job done against this Packers secondary. The Smith brothers might make things difficult for Cousins on some third downs, but for the most part, I expect the Minnesota offense to put up a ton of points and carry the team to a win.
Oh, and before you Packers fans get worried, I still think Green Bay is a good team and I happen to like the offensive identity they are attempting to build for themselves (it’s basically a carbon copy of the 49ers, to be honest). I just think that at this point the Vikings have fewer “unknowns” on the roster to me, and I believe in Minnesota’s coaching staff more than Green Bay’s. Zimmer + Kubiak…what’s not to love?
EAGLES @ WASHINGTON
GAME PICK: EAGLES
SPREAD PICK: WASHINGTON (+5.5)
ANALYSIS: This is going to be an ugly game. The Eagles are banged up, the Washington whatever-they-ares have a ton of injuries as well. Carson Wentz is going to get sacked a ton of times, while also throwing for a ton of yards, and Dwayne Haskins is going to really struggle to complete passes to anyone not named Terry McLaurin or Antonio Gibson. Even if the total yardage for this game is high, I expect the point totals to be low. If you love a good old-fashioned NFC East slop fest, this is the game for you! The Eagles will win with a narrow 2-point margin, and their fans will consume copious amounts of alcohol to try to forget this game ever graced their televisions.
BROWNS @ RAVENS
GAME PICK: RAVENS
SPREAD PICK: BROWNS (+7.5)
ANALYSIS: I know that the Ravens will probably win this game, but I’ll be damned if I haven’t 100% bought into this Brows team this offseason. Baker Mayfield’s borderline suicidal footwork from 2019 has been corrected, the offense has been re-shaped to suit his comfort zone on play action and bootlegs, and there are still a ton of talented weapons there for Mayfield to work with. Every piece, from coach, to quarterback, to receivers is all there for the Browns to have a truly EXCELLENT offense.
The only problem is that Cleveland’s excellent offense will be running into the buzzsaw that is the Baltimore Ravens defense, so it might be a bit of tough sledding for them in week 1. They’ll still probably put up somewhere in the range of 20 points, which is encouraging, but you’re going to need more than that if you honestly want to compete with this incredibly loaded Ravens offense. I’ll say Baltimore wins 27-21, and both teams look damn good in the process.
COLTS @ JAGUARS
GAME PICK: COLTS
SPREAD PICK: COLTS (-8)
ANALYSIS: Jonathan Taylor is going to make this Jaguars run defense wake up with a lot of bruises on Monday morning. I expect Indy to run the ball upwards of 35 times in this game, if not more…just because they can. Jacksonville has *some* talent that I like for the long term, like D.J. Chark, but for the most part their defensive roster is in complete rebuilding mode, and the Colts are perfectly built to pummel the Jags’ weak front seven into dust. This one is going to be hard to watch for Jaguars fans.
RAIDERS @ PANTHERS
GAME PICK: RAIDERS
SPREAD PICK: RAIDERS (-3)
ANALYSIS: I actually really, really like a lot of the Panthers’ young talent, but it’s tough for me to get behind a brand new coach, in a brand new league (to him), with a brand new quarterback, with a big chunk of their defense suiting up in the NFL for the FIRST TIME EVER…somehow beating a very talented Raiders squad with a returning coach, quarterback, and offensive line with tons of veterans up and down the defensive roster as well. If this game were played in November, sure, I might lean Carolina once they all really “gelled” together, but in week one? Nope, I can’t pull that trigger.
Look for Josh Jacobs to get 25+ touches in this game while Jon Gruden’s creative (and motion-heavy) run schemes slice and dice this brand-new Panthers front seven. There are so many little wrinkles involved in this Raiders offense that it’s even hard for veterans to read and keep up sometimes, let alone a bunch of rookies that have never taken any snaps before. I guarantee you that there will be a lot of busted run fits, and even more busted coverages by Carolina in this game, and Jacobs, Bryan Edwards, and Henry Ruggs will all benefit from those mistakes.
BEARS @ LIONS
GAME PICK: BEARS
SPREAD PICK: BEARS (+2.5)
ANALYSIS: The Lions haven’t even taken the field yet and they are already dealing with multiple crippling injuries on offense. Kenny Golladay isn’t playing, and neither is Big V. That means Khalil Mack will get to match up against a backup right tackle all game, Akiem Hicks will get to match up against a rookie right guard (Jonah Jackson), and Matthew Stafford’s only remaining downfield threat, Marvin Jones, will have to try to make magic happen all by himself against Kyle Fuller and Eddie Jackson….so good luck with that, I guess.
I think T.J. Hockenson and/or D’Andre Swift are going to have to stay in to protect on passing downs so often that they likely won’t be big factors as receivers as well, so in my opinion at least, this entire Lions offense is probably going to struggle…a lot. Mitchell Trubisky might not be great, but if he only has to put up 17 points to beat a Lions team that he weirdly has been good against in the past anyway? Yeah…I’ll take that bet. Chicago 17, Detroit 15.
SEAHAWKS @ FALCONS
GAME PICK: FALCONS
SPREAD PICK: FALCONS (+1)
ANALYSIS: The Falcons are a better team than people think, and they are healthier than they’ve been for at least the last two seasons. They have a TON of talent on every level of offense and defense, and Matt Ryan has typically been very good against Pete Carroll defenses, even going back to the prime Legion of Boom era. I think Ryan is going to be surgical today in picking apart Pete’s over-reliance on Cover-3 Buzz and Sky, and it would not shock me if he led Atlanta to a 30+ point outing.
I know that Jamal Adams’ addition will make a big impact on this Seahawks defense, but against a quarterback that has already seen every trick in Carroll’s bag over the last decade, and with the Seahawks defensive line being…well…not great, I just can’t see the Hawks holding back the tide here. Calvin Ridley, Hayden Hurst, and Todd Gurley will all catch a ton of passes underneath, Julio Jones will probably get a few chunk plays here and there, and that will be all she wrote. Russ will do Russ things in the fourth quarter, obviously, but this time it just won’t be enough. Atlanta 31 – Seattle 25.
DOLPHINS @ PATRIOTS
GAME PICK: DOLPHINS
SPREAD PICK: DOLPHINS (+7)
ANALYSIS: Call me crazy, but I think the Dolphins are going to have a top-8 defense in the NFL. Their secondary is insanely loaded, and one could argue that they might have the best cornerback trio in the entire league (yes, even over New England – I said what I said). When you look the analytics behind every great defense for the last decade, every single one of them had an elite secondary (even if they didn’t have an elite front seven), and I think Miami will be no different. I sure do love Cam Newton, but against this buzzsaw of a Dolphins defense, when he’s got basically no great weapons to work with and a much weaker offensive line then past Patriots teams…I just don’t see how New England scores many points here.
Don’t get me wrong, it’s not like Miami is going to score much either, but the Fins are just straight up a more complete team in almost every way right now. I think they go up to Foxborough and finally punch the bully in the mouth….hard.
CHARGERS @ BENGALS
GAME PICK: BENGALS
SPREAD PICK: BENGALS (+3)
ANALYSIS: The Chargers are ALREADY dealing with a ton of injuries, as is tradition. Derwin James is likely done for the year, they have 60% of their starting offensive line questionable for this game, and Mike Williams is still trying to play with a shoulder injury. Tyrod Taylor is…acceptable as a starter, I guess…but he’s not a miracle worker. He can’t elevate a bunch of backups the way Russell Wilson or Patrick Mahomes can – expecting him to walk into Cincinnati and do just that isn’t realistic.
Do the Bengals also have a bunch of injuries on defense? Sure, most notably Geno Atkins of course, but they still have D.J. Reader, Carlos Dunlap, Carl Lawson, and a personal favorite prospect of mine, Khalid Kareem. There’s enough talent there on the D-Line to take advantage of the Chargers’ weakened O-Line and make Taylor really, really uncomfortable in the pocket. And historically, when Taylor doesn’t have a clean platform to throw from, things go south for him pretty quickly.
On the other side, Joe Burrow is someone that I expect to hit the ground running in the NFL, even while avoiding the onslaught that Joe Bosa is surely to bring against Bobby Hart. Burrow is extremely comfortable under pressure, and believe it or not he was the only quarterback in his whole draft class to have his passer rating go UP when under pressure last year. He, unlike Tyrod, IS a miracle worker, and he CAN elevate a lesser roster to victory. I believe in him that strongly, that even against this very talented Chargers defense, he can lead Cincy to a win. Bengals 23, Chargers 19.
CARDINALS @ 49ERS
GAME PICK: 49ERS
SPREAD PICK: CARDINALS (+6.5)
ANALYSIS: Really? They are giving Kyler Murray 6.5 points against the Niners? Even though he took San Francisco to the wire last season with a much worse team, as a rookie, with a first-year head coach? Come on now…that’s just free money right there.
Bet Arizona to cover, even if they don’t win. If you watched my recent film room on the Cardinals defense, you’ll know why I expect that unit to be VASTLY improved over the last season, and the Cards offense will likely be improved as well with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins this offseason. I have literally zero reason to not believe that Arizona will be a better team in 2020, and they ALREADY gave Kyle Shanahan and the boys all they could handle last year as it is.
The Cards’ front seven is faster, and more disciplined. Their pass rush is better (and deeper). Their secondary is better (not by much, but they are). It’s not like I expect them to totally shut down this 49ers offense – nobody can really do that – but they WILL make San Francisco earn every single yard, especially when it comes to the ground game. It’s going to be tough sledding for the 49ers, trust me on that.
If Arizona lose this game by more than a touchdown, I would be genuinely stunned.
BUCCANEERS @ SAINTS
GAME PICK: SAINTS
SPREAD PICK: BUCCANEERS (+3.5)
ANALYSIS: I expect this to be a fantastic defensive battle. The Saints defense is loaded and will likely harass Tom Brady on every single play – Cam Jordan one on one with Tristan Wirfs is a nightmare scenario by the way – and I think the Bucs’ front seven is perfectly built to stuff the Saints’ run game that they rely on so heavily to keep their offense on schedule.
Throw in the fact that Mike Evans will probably be on a pitch count because of his hamstring injury, and the fact that Tampa’s linebackers are super rangy and can make life hell for Michael Thomas over the middle, and it just doesn’t seem likely to me that either of these teams move the ball that much. If this thing ended up somewhere in the realm of 13-10 or 16-13, it wouldn’t shock me. Either way, I don’t think this game is won by more than a field goal. Points will be way too hard to come by for either team for this to be a blowout. Let’s say Saints win 17-14, and the Bucs cover the spread.
COWBOYS @ RAMS
GAME PICK: COWBOYS
SPREAD PICK: COWBOYS (-2)
ANALYSIS: Simply put, the Rams don’t have the horses to compete with all of these Cowboys receivers. Jalen Ramsey can handle Amari Cooper, sure, but who does LA have that can match up with CeeDee Lamb’s size and length when they run “Hoss” in the red zone to give him a bunch of opportunities to score on jump balls? Who do they have that can match up with Gallup at the Z position and run with his seemingly endless crossing routes off short motion every time LA gives a man coverage look? With Cory Littleton gone, who matches up with Zeke out of the backfield? Other than Aaron Donald, who is actually supposed to be generating any pressure on that defensive line?
There are just so many questions that I have about this Rams defense, and unfortunately for them, the Cowboys are one of the worst possible matchups for them to try to answer those questions against. There’s way too much skill position talent on the field for Dallas, and LA is way too thin to deal with them all. IF the Rams pull this off…and that’s a big if…it will have to be with a shootout, but even then I just don’t seem them being able to pull within a field goal. I think Dallas has a big night tonight, and firmly asserts themselves as the front runner in the NFC East.
STEELERS @ GIANTS
GAME PICK: STEELERS
SPREAD PICK: STEELERS (+6)
ANALYSIS: This is a really rough matchup for Daniel Jones and company. The Steelers defense is as elite as ever and will likely be among the top five pass rushes in the league (yet again), and I would bet that they make the pocket VERY muddy for Jones tonight. And as we know already, muddy pockets tend to be Jones' worst nightmare. I suppose it is possible that we see some brand new version of Jones that can suddenly sense pressure and accurately hit receivers deep down the field, but I'm in "believe it when I see it" mode with this Giants offense.
On the other side of the ball, Big Ben is back and has a plethora of weapons to work with, plus a still-great offensive line in front of him. This Giants defense is STILL weak at boundary corner, so I expect Roethlisberger to be able to pass with impunity whenever they go into 11 personnel looks. The fact that the Giants are only six-point dogs kind of surprises me, to be honest. I'll go with a blowout win in favor of Pittsburgh, barring some crazy unforeseen development with the Giants offense.
TITANS @ BRONCOS
GAME PICK: TITANS
SPREAD PICK: TITANS (-3)
ANALYSIS: Denver's injuries are already mounting and they haven't even played a single snap yet. Courtland Sutton is hurt, Von Miller is done for the year, and Bradley Chubb is still on a pitch count. The Broncos still have a ton of young talent that can take over a game on a good day (Jeudy, Lock, Fant, Lindsay, etc), but I just feel that the Titans are a safer bet tonight, from an experience standpoint. They do have a returning coaching staff, quarterback, and one of the harder defenses for young quarterbacks to figure out, after all.
It could be a tough night for Drew Lock, especially if Vrabel throws as many tricky blitzes and creeper pressures at him as I expect him too. If he comes out and throws multiple interceptions against some defensive looks that he's never seen before, do not be surprised.
Tennessee 24 - Denver 20.
Comments
Vikings, cmon man lol. It's gotta be Pack with the points there. They got whooped twice by the pack last year, lost Diggs and a ton on defense. Diggs seemed to score pretty much every game vs the Pack. Packers roster pretty much stayed equal. Well unless you consider subtracting Jimmy Graham and Blake Martinez a negative.
Start Watkins or OBJ ppr?
